Cubs Organization Discussion

I’ve been triyng to put together my top 50 thread, and while I have things loosely ordered until the 90’s, I’m not comfortable with it. I’ll get the thread up in a day or so, hopefully before Sickels gets his. That said, here’s my tentative top 30. I feel comfortable about the top 15 or so, but from 16-50, I don’t think there’s much difference. To be honest, after the top 8, I could organize it in a lot of ways, depending on the criteria. Anyhow, an effort, with the acknowledgment that I am still working through it with some guys in the 31-50 range potentially sliding up when all is said and done.

1. Josh Vitters, B+: The one prospect in our system with apparent superstar potential. Has power that the system lacks. He showed signs in late 2008 that he might be able to stick at 3rd, and that is where he would have the most value for us. I expect him to start 2009 in Peoria, with a shot at Daytona/Tennessee depending on how things go. ETA to Wrigley guess? 2011, putting him potentially on track for a job after Derrek Lee leaves.
2. Jeff Samardzija, B: I’ve downgraded him to a B after further consideration. Just too much inconsistency to really merit a B+. He still has quality upside, although I think some overstate his abilities right now. It’s a matter of being more consistent, particularly with his secondary pitches. There is still some question if he is a starter. If he is, I see him more as a 2/3 type than an ace caliber pitcher. Personally, you try a guy as a starter until he can’t, and as such, I’d rather see him in AAA starting every 5th day, with the chance at a midseason promotion and a rotation shot in 2009. Realistically, I expect him to open the season in the pen as one of our primary setup arms.
3. Wellington Castillo, B: For the life of me, I don’t know why he doesn’t get more attention. Potential plus defense, enough bat, shows the potential for a bit more power. He’s a good one for the position, and if it wasn’t for the fact that we had Soto, we’d be talking about Castillo as a possible catcher of the future. With Soto in tow, he’s trade bait, particularly considering our system’s depth at catcher. If he’s with us, I see him starting the year at AA again, with Koyie Hill likely snapping the AAA spot. Of course, if Blanco leaves, then both could be bumped up a spot. That said, Castillo’s bat got off to a hot start in AA before struggling in July and August, so I prefer him to be in AA personally. In an ideal world, he’s a plus receiver that offers above average offense for the position.
4. Andrew Cashner, B: Some folks think this is high (see old thread over at Sickels). I think it’s fine. His small sample size last year shouldn’t be judged too harshly. The upside is still there, particularly in the pen. He could follow Ceda’s 2008 path in 2009. That said, the Cubs have said they’ll fast track him, so don’t rule out Cashner from appearing in the bigs. He has some control issues that need to be ironed out, because if not, he’s more Kevin Gregg than people might be willing to admit. ETA to Wrigley: My honest guess is that the Cubs will bring him to the bigs at some point in 2009 unless he falls apart, but at the very least, I think he’ll see the bigs in 2010..
5. Jay Jackson, B-: The grade hasn’t changed, but I’ve slid him up a bit. After awhile, I just couldn’t think of a reason not to place him here. Loose arm, in a good way, good delivery and mechanics should lessen the burden on the arm. He’s a good athlete, which is always nice. Had success in A+ when he moved up. Shows advance secondary pitches, and is still very much raw to full-time pitching. Some have suggested that he’s somewhat the righty version of Rich Hill (that is, living off one pitch, in this case, the slider). I disagree, as he has more life on the fastball (and could potentially add a few more ticks), and he has shown that the change/curve could eventually be a solid third pitch. The fastball already runs in the low 90’s. Has some minor issues to iron out, but I think it’s more consistency issues. One of the higher upside starting arms in the system, Jackson likely starts 2009 in Daytona, with a shot at Tennessee sometime midseason. ETA to Wrigley: Competing for a rotation spot in 2012. Worst case scenario is that he’s a late inning pen arm.
6. Tyler Colvin, B-: Was it really due to the injury? The ultimate Tim Wilken-type pick, Colvin’s tools are undeniable. He had a strong finish to finish the year, but struggled for most of the year. The surgery offers some hope that he was struggling as a result, although I’m not completely sold. I think he starts the year in AA when he is ready, with the potential for a quick bump to Iowa. He’s not a CF, and he’s probably not a RF either. ETA to Wrigley: Well, with RF now open, there’s a shot that Tyler could get a look in 2010 if he plays well… but with the Cubs likely to add an OF, the realistic assessment is that he’s potential trade bait unless he steps up big time. Grade is likely higher than what others will give him.
7. Ryan Flaherty, B-: PaulThomas of AthleticsNation made enough of a case that Flaherty should be a C+ that I gave long thought to it. He’s not sticking at shortstop, barring a surprise, but he could be a great 2nd base option. The system is so deep in 2nd base options, though, so I’ll be curious what the Cubs do. Maybe they keep him at short for another year, sliding him to Peoria. Or could they jump him to Daytona and switch him to 2nd? ETA to Wrigley: Could get a look in 2011, although 2012 is more likely.
8. Jovan Rosa, B-: I think he goes under the radar quite a bit. He’s got some defensive liabilities, but he likely can be fine at first base in time. There’s power potential there, as evidenced with the doubles, and his body may mature some more. He’s got a smooth stroke that should make contact consistently. He posted an solid line in the Midwest League. I think he plays mainly first base at Daytona to start 2009. ETA to Wrigley? If he develops, 2011, offering an option to replace Lee.
9. Mitch Atkins, C+. End of the rotation type, but he’s up in AAA and he’s coming off a solid year. Low 90’s fastball combined with the breaker and change gives him a shot. Should start 2009 as a stretched out arm in Iowa, and could see the bigs at some point.
10. Dan McDaniel, C+. Power righty arm runs it up there in the mid-90’s. Has a decent to solid curve I think and a usable change and slider. I want to see us try him as a starter (started at Chabot a bit) but I don’t expect it. Strong season at Boise, looking for him to start 09 in Peoria. I don’t see a huge difference between Cashner and McDaniel to justify separating them by too much (not saying that they are equals right now, as Cashner has the better stuff, but just that I don’t think they are far apart).
11. Micah Hoffpauir, C+. I’m not fond of any 28 year old being considered highly on a list, but there aren’t that many options, and you gotta give him credit in that, this isn’t the same Micah that hit Iowa way back in the day (and briefly got demoted for Brandon Sing … remember that?). He’s definitely improved, matching his raw power with a better contact ability now. I didn’t realize he was a good fielder until this year. Enough to start regularly in the bigs? If you think so, he might go up a couple more notches.
12. Esmailin Caridad, C+. He’s a hot name making the rounds this offseason, particularly with suggestions that he’ll start in AAA from Fleita. I like him. He throws strikes. I don’t know if his stuff is good enough to be anything more than a back of the rotation type, though, and as such Atkins, for his better year and being at a higher level, gets the edge over him. Solid winter so far.
13. Starlin Castro, C+. Castro had an excellent AZL season. Too early to tell, but loads of tools, some potential pop in the bat, and looks to be able to stick at short. That gives him value, and along with Lee, we have two good looking, exciting, but raw, shortstop prospects. Likely starts 2009 in XST, with Boise a possibility. Although … I wouldn’t be surprised if he was fast tracked to Peoria.
14. Kevin Hart, C. Still qualifies, and as such, gets bonus points for being a ready player. That said, I can’t rank him that high because I think he’s a middle reliever. If you buy him as a late inning arm or a rotation starter, then he slides up a bit.
15. Dae-Eun Rhee, C*. This one comes with a huge asterisk. Electric with a fast/curve/split-change offering when healthy, but the health. If he plays in 2009, I’d look for him to be at Peoria. If not, I’d look for him to start 2010 in Peoria. If healthy, his grade is higher.
16. Brandon Guyer, C. The tail off in August prevented a higher grade. He’s not as good as he was in July, but he’s probably is a bit better than his overall numbers in the other months. Toolsy guy who is probably like Colvin in that, they can pinch in CF, but likely aren’t regulars in an ideal situation. That said, the Cubs will give him a shot, as he has, by all accounts, an average arm, so it’s either LF or CF. We’ve got a lot of LF’s in the system. Potentially has power that is lacking in the system. Considering he was a college kid, and considering he showed enough in Peoria, I think he starts 2009 in Daytona.
17. Hak-ju Lee, C: Outside of some reports on Instructs, there just isn’t much information here. I’m loathe to put him too high, but the scouting reports are good enough to justify this position. Early indications have been limited power potential (which is okay for the position).
18. Nate Spears, C. He seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s still relatively young, and he had a big year in the Southern League. I think he can be a big league utility option, as he can handle short enough, a la Theriot. Should start 2009 in Iowa. Has continued with good winter work.
19. Aaron Shafer, C. You certainly don’t want to read too much into Boise work for college arms, but Shafer got off to a solid start. Has a nice repertoire, but fastball has to be back in the 90’s for him to succeed, and there were some reports that he was only tossing high 80’s. Should start 2009 in A ball somewhere, probably Peoria, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Daytona.
20. Larry Suarez, C. Big international signing of a couple years back has the frame and potential. Looked good coming back from injury, albeit in limited innings.
21. Jeffry Antigua. Hard throwing lefty is an intriguing arm, but far away.
22. Junior Lake. Talented kid with a sweet swing. Defensive concerns likely means he’s another 2nd baseman in the system. Has some power potential that he might make 3rd base a thought.
23. Randy Wells. Added a sinker last year. Looks like a potentially useful pen arm in the bigs.
24. Nate Samson. Tailed off a bit at the end of the year, but Samson and Rosa were the two constant cogs in Peoria all year. Like Flaherty, isn’t likely to fit at shortstop, although he’ll probably get another chance to play there in 2009. Somewhat similar to Theriot. I’d look for him to start 2009 in Daytona.
25. Chris Carpenter. Very shaky start to his career, as the stuff and control wasn’t there. Still has a lot of potential, particularly if he develops a 3rd pitch.
26. Alessandro Maestri. Good fast/slide combo. Still feel he’s more a pen arm, a la Wuertz. Some late inning potential if in the pen.
27. Casey Lambert. A very useful LOOGY type. Think Rich Hill with the plus curve and average fastball.
28. Jeremy Papelbon. Really settled in after a somewhat slow start. Cubs seem to want to try him as a starter in 09, based on some early reports. Not sure if he’s anything more than an end of the rotation type in that regards. They may just want to stretch out his arm to get more consistency on the change. Throws a decent fast/curve/fork-split arsenal. Looks like a potential LOOGY as well.
29. Casey Coleman. Son of Joe Coleman has sort of gone under the radar but he had a solid start to his Cubs career as well. Throws a 2seamer and a 4seamer at your typical velos (low 90’s –mid-90’s), along with a change and a developing curve.
30. Brad Snyder. Toolsy OF with no discipline can perhaps be a bench guy.

I read it carefully with great interest. Thank you