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Money and Soriano and Marquis

We've discussed this often on Marquis.  Would he be as disliked if he made 2 million?

 

What about Soriano?  If he made more like 10 or so would he be as bashed?  For less money his production is actually very good and would be better if used elsewhere in the lineup.

Also on him at leadoff, the common misunderstanding is he insists on being the leadoff hitter.  We have yet to see this as evidence.

Quite simply wasn't he the best leadoff option in 07 and 08?  I can't come up with anyone better myself.

And if we go into 2009 with the same team with the addition being a slugger who would you suggest instead?

I wouldn't mind Therior given a chance with his OBP through most of the 08 season would be fine with DeRosa batting 2nd.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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This has been discussed a lot with regard to both players...

The rational fans realize that both are overpaid relative to their performance. Marquis is a mediocre pitcher who took advantage of the market overpaying for “known” commodities in the #3-5 spots in the rotation. Soriano took advantage of being one of the top (if not the top) position players available to sign his deal.

The sensible answer to the hatred question should be obvious: if Soriano was making $8 million per year less and Marquis was making $2 million per year, they would both be worth the money. Some would still hate them though because they’d be blocking younger players or preventing the team from getting a better player at the same position from the market.

As for Soriano being the best option at leadoff, I’d say he wasn’t our best option last year. DeRosa, Fukudome (at least for the first half), and Theriot all made more sense based on their high OBP. I’m not sold that Theriot will repeat his performance, but I’d guess that DeRosa or Fukudome and maybe even Theriot would make more sense there next year as well. I think Soriano makes more sense as a #6 hitter.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 11:48 AM CST reply actions  

personally

i just want to see soriano stay healthy for a whole season and see his numbers then

by Glacier on Nov 26, 2008 12:18 PM CST reply actions  

+1

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Nov 26, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Per other posts

Soriano is NOT the best position for lead- off. A free swinging guy never is. Lead off hitters should GET ON BASE AND BE ABLE TO TAKE PITCHES. Soriano gets hits about 20% more often than he strikes out ( and his lead off homers are not that much help) 106 SO to 127 hits, everybody’s favorite whipping boy Theriot hits THREE TIMES as often as he strikes out less than 1/3rd as often as he gets hits (58 to 178) Silly me I want a leadoff hitter TO GET ON BASE if possible and to be patient and see pitches even if he does not get on.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 26, 2008 12:32 PM CST reply actions  

Jessica,

I think we know that you don’t like Sori as a leadoff hitter and would rather have Riot there. However, Riot isn’t exactly a patient hitter either:

Sori = 3.73 P/PA
Riot = 3.77 P/PA
DeRo = 3.90 P/PA
DLee = 3.95 P/PA
Soto = 3.98 P/PA
Ramy = 4.03 P/PA
Dome = 4.29 P/PA

What is the difference between swinging and missing at three pitches, and taking two then hitting a grounder to 2B? Each guy has made the pitcher throw three pitches. Sori’s strikeouts are less important with the bases empty than they are with runners on, and Sori is a better baserunner than Riot.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think that Sori is an ideal leadoff hitter; I just think he is a better leadoff hitter than Riot. Given the current roster, I think that DeRo would be the best choice but Lou doesn’t — and his vote is the only one that counts.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 26, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I disagree

He may not get more pitches but he gets on base a lot more. I am happy with DeRosa, Theriot or if they are playing him Reed Johnson. None is “real” lead off hitter but all are better than Soriano. What makes this so inane is that if he would just accept it
Sori would be in a much better position further down in the line up.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 26, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions  

That's the thing: he WOULD accept it...

In fact, he’s said so numerous times. Piniella writes the lineup card – he just plays. Piniella has experimented with it a couple of times.

What Soriano HAS done is made it clear that he prefers batting leadoff. That’s no different than DeRosa saying he’d prefer to simply play 2B everyday. In both of those cases, the player made clear his preference but also stated the willingness/desire to do what’s best for the team.

The problem is that Piniella isn’t patient. He moved Soriano down in the lineup for a handful of games at most. In those games, Soriano happened to struggle (he’s a streaky hitter). Piniella took those struggles (and the knowledge that Soriano feels more comfortable at leadoff) and decided that Soriano needs to bat leadoff.

It’s not fair to blame Soriano for Piniella’s faulty decision-making on this issue. Soriano didn’t insist on batting leadoff. He didn’t threaten to sit out and he didn’t complain.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Agree that Soriano isn't an ideal leadoff hitter, but...

your argument for why this is the case isn’t a very strong one. For one thing, Soriano and Theriot see about the same amount of pitches per AB (3.73 vs 3.75). And comparing hits to strikeouts is a limited analysis of productive AB. A strikeout isn’t necessarily any less productive than a simple groundout or popout. It’s just an out. This is especially true for a leadoff hitter, who probably has more AB with nobody on base than any other spot in the lineup. In addition, hits aren’t the only way to get on base.

The stronger argument is simply an OBP argument. Soriano got on base less often than any other regular on the team last year, and in 2007 he was only better than Theriot. That’s why Soriano is a poor fit at the leadoff spot.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Strikeouts are less productive with men on base.

Leadoff hitters bat with men on base less often.

Therefore… strikeouts make Soriano a less-suitable leadoff hitter?

It’s an arguement that’s never made sense.

by cwyers on Nov 26, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions  

But having a lead-off hitter who strikes out a ton makes sense ?

Anyone know of successful l lead off hitters that are free swingers who strike out almost as much as they get hits ?
I am sure there must be one somewhere but all the best ones I can think of get hits at a MUCH higher clip than they strike out.
Hey how bout we get Dunn and let HIM lead off ? At least he walks more and then you won’t find those unproductive strike outs a problem right ?

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 26, 2008 2:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Dunn would be a decent option as a leadoff man

because he gets on base at a very high rate. He’s also a pretty decent option in the #5 or #6 spot, because he has power. But Dunn is a very different hitter from Soriano. Soriano doesn’t take many walks while Dunn gets a LOT of walks.

Beyond that, your argument still makes no sense. Basing anything on hits and strikeouts and not much else is a very limited view. Further, there example guys who strike out a lot but get on base a lot as well. Frequently, they hit in the middle of the order, as they tend to be power hitters. But just because you strike out a lot doesn’t mean you can’t be a good leadoff hitter. Case in point: Curtis Granderson. That guy strikes out a lot but he had a .360+ OBP in each of the last two years, which is pretty solid.

Now, Soriano isn’t suited to be a leadoff hitter, but it’s not because of his strikeout totals or his strikeout-to-hit rate. It’s because he doesn’t get on base enough. If he consistently had a .360+ OBP, he’d be just fine in the leadoff spot. It’s the fact that he doesn’t get walks (not the fact that he strikes out a lot) that make him unsuited to the role.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 3:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok

I don’t care what reason you want. Soriano is NOT a lead off hitter. Pick any stats you liket but watching him swing at everything that moved Vs Victorino ( the BACK UP lead off guy for the Phillies) in April who took pitch after pitch showed me all I needed to know that Soriano sucked at lead off. Lou was there too of course but he was too busy overusing the entire roster ( including the game in which he went through every available position player in 9 innings in an extra inning game). I think the stats themselves are pretty conclusive that Sori is a BAD lead off hitter but I also believe in things you see beyond stats while actually watching games.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 26, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Except that your watching of games led you to a faulty conclusion...

Suggesting that we replace Soriano for guys who see pitches like Theriot and DeRosa is just wrong. Those guys don’t really see any more pitches per AB than Soriano. And for the record, neither does Victorino – he actually sees substantially FEWER pitches per AB than Soriano.

I’m not disagreeing that I think it’d be great to find a better option at leadoff. But basing it on strikeouts (which don’t ultimately prevent value as a leadoff man) and pitch taking (especially when referencing guys who don’t take any more pitches than Soriano) is faulty logic, in my opinion.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are two that come to mind.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 26, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Given Piniella's quest to get offense throughout the lineup

(one of his reasons for benching Pie), DeRo makes a lot of sense in the leadoff spot. He is good at getting on base, he is a very good baserunner (much better than Riot), and he is also a good RBI man. He won’t steal a ton of bases, but he will put himself into scoring position (or in the dugout) with XBHs.

The major problem with DeRo in the leadoff spot is that, IMO, he is running the bases “scared”. (Possibly due to Piniella’s public lynching of Barrett last year?) It’s possible that Lou doesn’t give him a green light. All I know is that he has not once in two years tried to steal 2B on his own. Every time he has run it has been a hit-and-run or the back end of a double-steal. He was never scared to run playing for Bobby or Buck, and both gave him a green light. (Bobby even batted him leadoff when Furcal was injured.) DeRo will never steal 30 bases, but he is faster than most Cub fans realize, and is capable of picking his spots and getting 10 — enough to make a pitcher pay attention to him.

Riot would be OK if he can keep his OBP up, though I cringe at the thought of our worst baserunner being our most important baserunner. It also means giving our worst OPS guy the most PAs.

I am actually one of the rare BCBers who doesn’t mind having Sori in the leadoff spot. I can think of a lot of things that are worse for an offense than giving a guy with an .847 career OPS a lot of ABs.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 26, 2008 12:36 PM CST reply actions  

I don't think Piniella affects DeRosa's...

…ability to run the bases much at all. DeRosa is one of the Cub players with good instincts, he just doesn’t have the greatest wheels. Part of putting DeRosa in motion also depends on whether the guy behind him has the ability to protect him.

Regard Barrett; he was one of the worst baserunners I have ever seen on a major league field and I applaud Piniella for telling Hendry to send him on his way. In fact, it was about 2 years too late.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions  

So...

… in SOME cases it’s good for the manager to tell the GM to get rid of someone. In this case Barrett was one of Hendry’s pets (he had pursued him since he tried to get him to go to Creighton when he was coaching there).

In other cases the GM should be able to tell the manager the same. It’s too bad that Hendry and Piniella seem to be at odds on so many things.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure...

…where you going with that, but it really comes down to the ability to make judgements that are in the best interest of putting a winning team on the field. IMO, this is not an area Hendry has excelled, and could very well be the reason McDonough and others pushed to bring in someone with a reputation of evaluating talent, like Piniella.

Anyway, there are going to be times that a GM and manager completely disagree on players and they need to talk things through and get other opinions from their internal scouts etc. I think Pie was an example of this last spring, and there are probably many others that we don’t hear about.

I’m sure Bobby Cox and Shurholz didn’t always agree on certain players and they had to work out a common ground as a game plan for that player. In fact, if managers and GM’s always agreed, it would be a pretty scary thing.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions  

The point was...

… that I agree, Hendry didn’t do a good job stopping Dusty Baker from getting “his horses”, with bad results.

However, Lou Piniella also has blind spots in terms of players. We saw what happened with Scott Eyre (who should have stayed) and Bob Howry (who should have been dumped). Kerry Wood may be another victim, and you correctly mention Pie.

It’s there that Hendry has to stand up and be the boss.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed...

There are certainly times when Piniella is right in his assessment. However, there are also clearly times in which Piniella has been dead wrong. I think this is a difficult area to handle, as ultimately someone has to make a decision. I think Hendry and Piniella have different viewpoints as to player value. It’s hard for anyone to know for sure when they are right and when they are wrong, so saying Hendry has to step up some of the time is a precarious statement.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 1:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree...

…even the best managers have certain prejudices that can cause them to miss the boat on certain players and Piniella is not different. What is most important, is the body of work (in regards to talent evaluation) and the good managers make more right calls as opposed to the wrong ones.

In regards to Hendry, the track record of his 14 years being involved in the farm system has shown me his strength is not in identifying, projecting and developing a players abilities and this has also shown up in how he has filled out the roster on the major league level. I think this has improved in the last couple of years and hopefully having other people in place to help with these calls will continue to yield more positive results.

One other thing that I have always believed in, is how important a GM is to an organization, especially baseball. He drives the bus in regards to drafting, scouting, developing, FA signings, trades and hiring the field management and sometimes coaches. Look what Gillik did for Philly over a few years and other GM’s that don’t have near as much to work with as Hendry. I’ll take a good GM and a mediocre manager all day long vs the opposite. With Hendry, I would get scared if he took over player evaluation descions based on his own opinions, because I just don’t think he is best suited for that.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

That makes a lot of sense.

I will also say that over the last two years I have heard many stories on how the “organization” is divided on this player or that.

“Divided” probably means Lou on one side and everyone else in the front office on the other.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Who knows...

…whether the Cubs incur a higher number of “divided” opinions on players as opposed to other organizations, but I would agree that Piniella was probably a shock to the system.

Keep in mind, the Cub’s organization needed a “shock” when it came to talent evaluation, because they were skidding downward in this area for quite a while. Lou probably carries a lot of weight, and frankly, he should carry more weight because that is the chief reason he was brought on. I don’t think it goes as far as Piniella vs everyone else and I know in Pie’s case, several were on Piniella’s side of him needing to start 08 at AAA.

In the end if someone had given me the option (a few years ago) of either obtaining a GM with a history of building championship teams or a manager with a long winning record (icluding championships), I would have taken the GM because of the positive long term effects on the club. For right now, Hendry is what the Cubs need because they need to make trades and maybe sign a FA or two over the next couple of years. They also need Piniella’s confidence an experience in how to evaluate ML talent and manage the team on a day to day basis. In a couple of years, something keeps telling me there will be a change at the GM level for the Cubs. Certainly, a championship will earn Hendry a longer stay, but abscent that, there will be signficant changes.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions  

While I agree...

… that the Cubs needed a shock to the system — and they got it — they also have to have both “sides”, if there are any, open-minded.

It appears that Lou’s is closed on a number of things.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions  

He is...

…as are all good managers (just in different ways). They believe in their abilities and they usually have strong opinions on what is right and what isn’t.

It all comes down to your body of work in two areas; ability to evaluate a players abiltiies, and using your 25 man roster in the best fashion to win games. The Cubs could do a lot worse than Lou in these areas, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make the wrong call at times. In regards to the Cubs, the majority of the wrong calls (since the Dallas Green days) have been made by the people above the manager, and not the manager themselves. Certainly, the managers decisions are there everyday for everybody to see, but the Cubs have not failed to win championships because of managers who kept them from doing so.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I would agree with that, in general.

I’d also make the observation that any manager, the longer he is with your team, will be subject to criticism, no matter how well he does. Tony LaRussa has two pennants and seven playoff appearances in 13 years in St. Louis, and he still gets ripped from time to time by Cardinals fans.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Joe Torre and Francona...

…are not the main reasons the Yankees and Red Sox have won a lot of championships in the last 10-12 years. They helped, but IMO, there are many other managers (if they were in that position) who would have been a positive contributor and won championships with the group of players they had.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 4:46 PM CST up reply actions  

If you want stubborn...

…LaRussa probably leads the league in that category. He has also pissed off some of his better players over the years and frankly he doesn’t give a shit.

I have no problem with that from a manager, because it shows he will not put any player above the team and will also not put player comfort above what is required to win championships.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 4:55 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Lou does that to some extent...

… but clearly he has his pets, too. I don’t think LaRussa has any.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 8:24 PM CST up reply actions  

He has LOTS of pets

His ONE redeaming quality is his extraordinary devotion to helping stray animals.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 27, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

LOL

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 27, 2008 8:15 PM CST up reply actions  

DeRo actually has great wheels; he doesn't have a good cross-over step.

That is why he covers so much ground in the OF and scores so easily from 1B on a double, but doesn’t steal many bases. However, he is capable of stealing a few bases against pitchers who don’t hold runners well and catchers who don’t throw well. I just noticed these past two years that he hasn’t even tried, so I can only guess that Lou won’t give him a green light. In the past, he was more aggressive on the bases.

BTW, he has said that he intends to work a lot this winter on his cross-over step. It will be interesting to see if he is better next year.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 26, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

he is fast but not quick

a quick first step is important for a base stealer, foot speed is something else.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Nov 26, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions  

The problem with Soriano...

…is his body language on the playing field and the fact that he is very streaky. He appears to loaf around alot of hot dog it (although I don’t think it is malicious) it is his style.

Regarding production, Soriano produces as much for his salary (if not more) than the other high paid guys on the club – Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano. In fact, I could argue that both Zambrano and Lee are overpaid for their relative level of production.

Soriano is the best power hitter on the Cubs (and one of the best in the NL). If they make the decision to put that to better use, I tend to think the club would benefit with more wins.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 12:45 PM CST reply actions  

Hot dog, yes.

Loaf, no. I am sure you know the difference.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

The appearance of loafing...

…would be a better way to put it.

I can recall many times that Soriano certainly wasn’t running at full speed to chase down balls in the outfield. Again, I don’t think he does it purposely, its just his comfort level of how he approaches things.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree.

It does LOOK like he’s loafing. I don’t think he really is, though.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

He didn't grow up playing Little League in the US

where you are taught to “hustle”, almost mindlessly, at an early age.

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Nov 26, 2008 5:47 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree

The problem is not so much Soriano as the misuse of him as a lead off hitter. He is WAY better than Neffi as a hitter but neither of them
should have been the regular lead off hitter. Sori really does work his ass off but a better manager would know that he belongs further down in the lineup and let him know that is where he would be most valuable.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 26, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Flip Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano in the lineup.

One of the big questions for 2009 will be what kind of hitter will DLee be. Rather than just wait and see who shows up, I’d like to see the Cubs tell Lee to use the WBC to prepare to be a lead-off style hitter. Lee is already good at making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches. He has speed, although not as much as Soriano. He gets on base. So, he’s not an ideal lead-off hitter, but he does a lot of what we want out of a lead-off hitter. Plus, his GIDPs – if they’re back, will be minimized in the lead-off spot.

Meanwhile, I like putting a lower-OBP, higher-SLG hitter in the 3-spot. Soriano is precisely the kind of hitter I like to see hitting 3rd.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 1:08 PM CST reply actions  

I'd hate seeing Soriano bat third...

His streakiness would be a huge drain at the #3 spot. I want my most productive (and preferably a pretty consistent) hitter batting third. Soriano is just way too streaky. In addition, you don’t want to have your #3 hitter running in front of your #4 and #5 hitters. That would take away one of Soriano’s primary assets.

I’d be okay with moving Lee to leadoff, but not moving Soriano to third. I’d prefer moving Soriano to 6th, where his speed could be an asset still and his streakiness is a bit more marginalized.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Put him 5th...

…and throw away the key. At the end of the day, you would have one of the most productive 5 hole hitters in the game.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

MPH73 - you've been one of the biggest boosters for getting a Real Lead-off Man

How would Lee strike you as a lead-off man?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

He would be better than Soriano...

…but where I would really like to put Lee is on the 2 hole and I think it could jump start him a bit.

If LaRussa managed the Cubs, I’d guarantee that he would put Lee in the 2 hole. He did it with Fisk in 83, with Glaus this past year (and several other times with guys you wouldn’t think would fit the 2 hole) and it has interjected life in their production.

If they can’t get a REAL leadoff hitter; I would try DeRosa, Theriot and even Fukudome there before Soriano.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

But what about Lee's GIDPs?

That’s why I’d go ahead and move him all the way up to #1.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 2:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Good point...

…but sometimes a move from the 3 hole up to number 2 can handle some of that problem because it changes your approach a bit. It sure appears as though Lee has been trying to do too much at times in the 3 hole, and maybe a move up to the 2 hole would calm him down a bit.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with the "trying to do too much" diagnosis

That’s why I wondered if a total system reboot at leadoff would be good for him. It would push him to deemphasize the HR power that doesn’ t seem to be there as much and just get on base and rack up the doubles. Lee wouldn’t steal 2nd as often as most lead-off hitters, but he wouldn’t need to because he’d hit himself to second plenty and once there, his base-running is solid.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I think streakiness, actually, is less of a problem batting 3rd

because the OBPs of the 1-2-4 hitters should be high enough to give you other options to score. What really hurts between those 1-2-4 guys is DPs. If you wanted to go all OBP 1-2-3-4 and get your speed down below the sluggers, I’d be ok with batting Soto 3rd and Soriano 6th.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the streakiness is a bigger concern for the very reason you list...

the higher OBP of your 1, 2, and 4 hitters makes having a productive #3 hitter that much more important. Just like you want to have high-OBP guys ahead of your #3-5 hitters, you want your #3-5 hitters to be consistent and productive. Soriano’s streakiness would be magnified in the #3 spot. In the #5 or #6 spot, you’d have more situations in which the bases have been cleared compared to the #3 spot, because you’d have already gotten through 2 or 3 of your big boppers.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

On the contrary.

First, Soriano is productive.
Second, almost all players are inconsistent.

This article has influenced my thinking on this, particularly this section:

One of the problems is that teams often put their highest OBP batter in the third position, but the #3 spot is the one LEAST likely to lead off the second inning. James said it, others agreed, and The Book confirms it. In addition, The Book found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and nobody on. So the run value of every hit (except the home run) is lower in the third position than in any other of the top five positions. That’s why they recommend putting your fifth-best hitter in the three spot.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

The #3 spot CANNOT lead off the second inning...

… and it’s pretty obvious that a fair amount of the time it would come up in the first with two out and nobody on.

What’s the groundbreaking research here?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions  

But DGU's research has some merit

To me it is clear that coaches don’t use statistics like they should.

Let me us another analogy and bring it back to baseball. In golf almost all golfers use a driver off the tee in the attempt to gain as many yards as possible and shorten the shot to the green attempting to use a shorter iron—-sounds intuitive.

But Tiger Woods only uses his driver 2 or 3 times out of 14 holes, (4 par 3’s). That means he uses an iron or fairway wood on 11-12 holes. When I played and my coach told me I was only able to hit my driver where even though I could drive 280-300 yards twice a round and had to use my 3-wood or 2 iron off the rest of the tees. My scores fell by an average from 74 to 72 or even now scoring below par even though I was hitting many more middle irons to the greens instead of short irons. Why because I was also not hitting short irons out of the rough or worse.

In baseball OBP and SLG’ng give you such a picture. To me OBP should be used in the top of the order: Here Theriot was tops from regular and Fontenot (tops in bench players) so to me it is obvious that Theriot should be either lead off or number two as he will be on base 2 out 5 times or at least once a game sometimes twice a game.

Then the problem with the Cubs lineup is that you need to have another top OBP batter up after or before him to insure that 3 out 4 times or better someone is on base when your #3 hitter is up.

To me then the 4th-5th hitters must be your best sluggers which are Soriano and Ramirez in that order, with Ramirez being your second best OBP which places him perfect for the cleanup. But the stats tell you that Soriano with the leading slugging at 564 should be the 5th hitter where he will have the most opportunities to hit with men on base.

Back to the #3. To me I would rather have a higher OBP than SLG’ing here to insure the odds are that someone will be on base in front of my SLG’ers, that is DeRosa or Soto and not Lee where both had stronger OPS. This is as much a psychological decision as a tactical one. Soto to me is my #3 with the same OBP but stronger SLG’g than Lee.

Therefore Lee moves back to the 6 spot and will lead off innings or be up with 2 outs and the bases juiced as anyone and a good spot for him to produce. Behind him DeRosa who has a similar OPS would make for statistically balanced attack.

Here then is the question. In the present roster you could play DeRosa in RF and Fukudome in CF or Pie in CF and Fukudome in RF. With DeRosa playing RF Fontenot would play with the 395 OBP and a 514 SLG while Pie had a .312 OBP and meak .325 SLG. Where to play Fukudome?

I say I will go with his first half season .425 OBP and bat him second behind Theriot where two .400 OBP in front of Soto would set tables in front of Soto, Ramirez, Soriano. But then I would bat Fontenot 6th, and bat Lee and DeRosa 7th-8th and wear out the other team’s pitcher.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Nov 26, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Your logic makes perfect sense...

…and I agree 100%.

Sometimes we try and make this lineup stuff way to complicated than it really is.
It doesn’t really matter who leads off an inning etc., but the most important thing to remember is; 1 always hits in front of 2, 2 always hits in front of 3, etc., etc..

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 26, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, it wasn't my research

but thanks anyway.

If Theriot and Dome can average a .390 OBP between them, they’d be great 1-2 hitters, but the way the Cubs are talking about both these players, it doesn’t seem they are counting on either to do that.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

The question comes down to what are stats telling you and what to do

I like analogies: We are assessing the election results locally. In our world A’s are 43, Inde’s 33 and Z’s 23%. So how can a Z’s win? Well there one group argued that the Z’s had to convert the A’s and concentrate on that. Another school said that the Z’s had to gain a big enough majority of Inde’s.

After the election it is obvious that it is easier to get Inde’s to vote for Z’s than converting A’s. The stats told us.

Now scoring runs is only done two ways; HR or with men on base. Statistics will show you that 855 Runs scored with 184 HR’s. Easily only 21.5% runs scored were by the HR hitter. 12.5% of the hits were HR.

To me it is obvious that the more I can put men on base in front of those who have greater SLG’ng the chance increases that a run will be scored. No different than the chances are greater that if I talk to an Inde voter they will change their voting pattern than if I talk to an opposition majority party voter.

Lastly DLee had too many GIDP… a sign his game is deteriorating but I want someone in the 3rd position whose game is peaking or ascending. But put DLee in the 6th or 7th spot and it elevates that spot in the order.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Nov 26, 2008 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

further it said that 12% of the runs were scored in a multi-run HR'

But 78% were scored not by the HR. So increase your chances to score via the HR and also the chance to score not by the HR.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Nov 26, 2008 4:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Nor should the Cubs count on them for that...

Theriot and Fukudome didn’t combine for a .390 OBP last year, and that was in a career year for Theriot. I’d certainly expect Theriot to come back down a bit from that lofty average (dragging down his OBP as well). And there’s certainly no guarantee that Fukudome figures it out this year after pitchers apparently figured him out last year.

I think Theriot is more realistically a .350-.360ish OBP guy, which would mean that Fukudome would have to be a .420-.430 OBP guy for the two to average a .390 OBP. That is possible, but I wouldn’t call it likely.

by SouthernCub on Dec 1, 2008 6:34 AM CST up reply actions  

If you don't think the #3 spot can lead off the second inning

you appear to have purged Rich Hill’s starts from your memory.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

LOL

OK, so you’d have to have 11 men bat in the first inning. Then it could happen.

But how often do 11 men bat in the first inning? You have to score a minimum of five first-inning runs to do that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 26, 2008 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Two problems with this logic...

1. The second inning is only one inning out of 9 in a game.
2. It’s all but guaranteed that the #3 spot won’t lead off the second inning so referencing James is silly. That should be incredibly obvious.
3. Batting with two outs and nobody on is only one situation that is relevant.
4. Do we agree that strikeouts are less painful when people aren’t on base? If so, then the argument that there will be fewer chances to lead off the inning in the #3 spot is a detriment to your argument.

Further, I didn’t say Soriano wasn’t productive. Just that he’s more streaky than most players. When he’s on, he’s really on. When he’s off, he’s really off. The fact that all players are consistent is irrelevant (and obvious). It’s the relative inconsistency I’m concerned about.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Should've edited the title...

there were more than two problems I had with the post.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

But at the 3 spot - strikeouts are much, much better than DPs.

Plus a strikeout with people on base and less than two outs is LEAST harmful when happening before the cleanup hitter.

One thing we should point out as we complain about unideal hitters in other spots is that Aramis Ramirez is an awesome guy to have hitting 4th. He doesn’t strike out often, tends to hit for good average, and upped his walk rate last year perfectly. Having Aramis and his contact skill bat 4th allows us to bat a potential strikeout victim like Soriano, Soto, or Dunn before him without much harm.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with the first part...

but that’s a VERY specific category. And who’s to say that Soriano wouldn’t ground into as many DP as DLee did last year? The fact that Lee struggled with double plays last year doesn’t make Soriano a good fit for the #3 spot. It just means that maybe Lee isn’t a good fit in the #3 spot either.

by SouthernCub on Nov 26, 2008 5:04 PM CST up reply actions  

What about this post is worth a re-post?

Sorry but every point in here is so stale. I am not sure why this was posted.

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Nov 26, 2008 1:43 PM CST reply actions  

It sure beats anything

else I’ve read today on the internet. It’s a slow day. There’s no news. This is about as good as it is going to get today.

Cubs Win!! Cubs Win!

by Ihatethecards on Nov 26, 2008 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Why

is everyone debating about where Soriano leads off. Get over it. Hes gonna be our leadoff hitter for the next few years. We will not get brian roberts, and whoever said Dunn should lead off, probably did a few lines of blow before they wrote their statement. Cubs will get a mediocre left handed bat for the sake of offense, and the cubs will win around 90 games again this year..only to stikeout in the playoffs

by Bardusk87 on Nov 26, 2008 5:04 PM CST reply actions  

So, that's settled then. No need for anymore posts, at all.

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Nov 26, 2008 5:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Hey John,

It was nice knowing you, but I guess we won’t be posting anymore?

What a shame…

DMH

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 26, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions  

If Bardusk's proclamations come true

then I WILL stop posting….

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Nov 28, 2008 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

To me,

Sori as a #4 hitter wouldn’t be that bad. A #4 hitter needs to hit the ball hard often so even if it’s caught it can be used as a sacrifice. Sori although strikes out alot, (and i could be wrong) has a high fly ball:ground ball ratio limiting DP’s and raising the chance of SAC fly’s.

I am just basing that on his swing which doesnt produce much of a chance for groundballs lol. If somebody does have the correct stats please share.

by nick_reny on Nov 26, 2008 7:14 PM CST reply actions  

To answer your original question

I think we’d be complaining that the team was being cheap, if those guys were making what they were making.

The market is what it is. Sometimes you overpay. Sometimes you get a break.

I personally have no patience for fans that whine about players’ salaries.

The worst beer I had was pretty good.

by Worf on Nov 27, 2008 9:49 AM CST reply actions  

fonzie

i for one cringe everytime a pitcher gets 2 strikes on alfonso.

by NOMAR on Nov 29, 2008 5:34 AM CST reply actions  

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