Harden + Dempster > Peavy IMO

Look where Peavy pitches – the best pitchers park in the major leagues, his ERA is going to be skewed downward.
Career
Peavy 3.50 FIP
Harden 3.41 FIP

Peavy 8.96 K/9
Harden 8.99 K/9

They have similar LD, GB, Peavy edge in BB/9, Harden has lower BABIP, lower OBA, lower HR/9, better career ERA+, Harden a year younger.

I’d say they are pretty much the same pitcher, and Harden was healthy last year. Peavy is up near the top of PAP every year as well.

We have Harden under a cheap contract and don’t have to give up Pie, Cedeno, Marshall, et al to get him. So no, I won’t retract that statement.

I think the chances of Demp being on the Cubs opening day roster are slim and none. And slim is packing his bags.

this package looks pretty similar to what the Twins got for Johan.

Pie = Gomez…Pie with more offensive upside
Marshall = Humber…Marshall I would argue is more valuable.
Ceda = Kevin Mulvey
Cedeno = Deolis Guerra…just because who the hell is Deolis Guerra?

In fact, you could argue the Cubs package is better than what the Twins received, as Carlos Gomez offense is never going to be very good, and Pie may not be as fast but is most likely just as good a defender. Marshall has quietly been very good the past two years, I don’t see why Humber would be considered to have more value. Mulvey is nothing special, maybe you could give him a slight edge if he projects to be a starter. Cedeno is major league ready, while Guerra is far from a guaranteed major league player.

me personally i would rather give up the deal of Ceda Marshall Pie and Cedeno and let Demps walk…

I think lemon is an idiot in that the doesnt like Ceda… I think a lot of people are high on him. He is one of the reasons i dont want to sign Wood either…. As of right now here is my offseason plan

Offer ARB to Wood and Demps (if they accept great we have no risk and if not then we get four picks)
DO NOT offer arb to Howry he will accept and he sucked
Get Peavy….. We can do it. We have a very short window and if he is healthy i say we get rid of the WHOLE farm to aquire a cy young winner. Peavy Z Harden Lilly and Marqui/other = wow…..
Sign Abreu he is what we need….
Give Marmol a huge raise but dont make him the closer. He is too valuable in late situations to give us only three outs….
Vote McCain.. Or go out and vote…. God bless prosperity for this country

-I bleed cubbie blue :)

Peavy has expanded his list, but we don’t know that Towers has gotten good offers from those two teams. It could be a negotiating tactic to get Hendry or Wren to step up their timing.

That said, the Angels can give the Padres just what they’re looking for.

He wouldnt give up Hughes or Kennedy, Tabata or Jackson for Santana, so would he do so for Peavy? I doubt it, his mantra has been to turn around that franchise and focus more on homegrown talent, rather than giving them away for vets……but Lil Steinbrenner might flip that strategy around.

but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth talking about.

…and I shall cringe at the contract because I bet it is in the neighborhood of 4 years at $60 million.

Jake Peavy? He’s not coming to the Cubs. This is smokescreen and contingency planning by Hendry. Nothing more. There are other pitching starved teams around baseball that can give San Diego a lot more than Felix Flippin Pie, Sean Marshall and Jose Ceda.

The reason they may be willing to trade Peavy is they are rebuilding. They are looking for young talent in return, particularly Peavy’s replacement, a future ace pitcher.

we wouldn’t be reading rumors about them seeking a lead-off man.

that enlightening dissertation, Blue Mike. As usual, any deal “we” might come up with is speculation. Obviously, as you have proven time and time again, your ‘speculation’ is certainly always, spot-on.

goodness Peavy is an elite starter in baseball, and the Cubs are going to offer scraps that fell on the floor. To get this done the Padres would want either Marmol or Spellcheck in the package to start.
Spellcheck, Pie, Marshall and two other prospects for Peavy and Greene.

to make sense for the Padres. I would think the Padres are looking for MLB ready minor league talent or players that are in the 0-3 range (closer to the 0 than 3) that they could pay the minimum for a couple of years.

For instance, if the Padres were to talk to the Brewers, they wouldn’t be interested in JJ Hardy, they would be interested in Escobar, their up and coming shortstop with virtually no MLB service time. That is the type of player they are looking for.

…..but a shrinking number of Cub fans who refuse to accept the reality of Rich Hill and that is that he has no future in MLB.

but why wouldn’t he take him as a throw-in if he has 40 man roster space? It would be a one-year, “will a change of scenery help” gamble. Hill might be the 4th guy in the deal; the problem is coming up with the stud pitching prospect.

So from a financial management standpoint the Padres don’t have to get down to the $40 million salary target until the beginning of the 2009 season. The urgency to move Jake Peavy (and others) is prior to next season. Even Kevin Towers is smart enough to know an extreme bidding war can happen for Peavy.

if a trade is made between the Cubs and Padres, it will involve Greene rather than Peavy.

It does seem like all of this is pure speculation as I doubt Peavy will be traded before the Winter Meetings in Vegas at the beginning of December.

I still don’t think the Cubs will get Peavy but if Greene is available for a decent price, I’d definitely be interested. He’s not a superstar but a change of scenery might do him good.

If the Padres want controllable players for the next 5+ years. It would seem that the Braves system is a much better fit for a trade.

Unless other teams decided to hold on to their own prospects, opening the door for the Cubs, it would seem that re-signing Dempster would be a better way to address the rotation.

and that’s why people can’t look at the Santana deal. People need to look more at the Haren deal. Even Bedard brought a starting CF’er who was a very high prospect, a closer and someone who is now one of the better pitching prospects in baseball.

As someone mentioned above, I see a Greene deal before I see a Peavy deal.

you better have an owner with some deep pockets.

I think that’s in the rules (unless the other team forfeits out of fear of the rotation).

would be just stupid. Pass on him.

a top-flight pitcher and misses out on C.C., don’t be surprised if someone overpays for Demp. It’s happened before and it will happen again.

All this talk of economic hardship having impact on the supply and demand equation for free agent pitching is hogwash. There was never a chance that Dempster would sign for some magical hometown discounted contract of 3 years plus a vesting option. Again, it is easy to rattle off the names of a bunch of high profile teams who have screaming need for starting pitching.

especially after the Zito Dizaster. But clubs have money to spend, so…

had a good year, not as good as Demp, but Demp pitched for a much better team. I would rank Burnett and Demp about equal with Sheets a step behind because of his recent injury problems.

if you can pry him away from the Red Sox (rumored destination) or the Dodgers. He has the experience that you need and probably for a much more reasonable price whether that be in years or dollars.

Return to Boston or stay with Los Angeles.

plus the Japanese pitchers Kawakami and Uehara.

He’s not coming to the Cubs. Not with at least a half a dozen other teams going to be very hot on his trail and Kevin Towers having the ability to sell to the highest bidder. Felix Pie, Sean Marshall and Jose Ceda is going to be readily topped by other teams.

According to Sportsline.com, http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2004/288915, since 2004 here are Peavy’s home vs. road splits

2004 – 2.33 ERA away vs. 2.21 home
2005 – 2.98 ERA away vs. 2.81 home
2006 – 4.57 ERA away vs. 3.75 home
2007 – 2.57 ERA away vs. 2.51 home
2008 – 4.28 ERA away vs. 1.74 home

So, really this season was the only real drastic difference between home and away splits. Also, I am aware that this is just his earned run average, but it tells a decent story. 2006 was an off season for him, and last season was injury filled.

Does that mean that he can pitch at such a high level in home games at Wrigley Field against a tougher division? No, but he isn’t really “league average” outside the park either.

Plus, home/road splits can be random and some guys always do a little worse on the road, no matter their park. Peavy’s #s are bolstered by PETCO, yes, but Peavy is still a good pitcher.

that Hendry wants to keep his trade chips for Roberts/Hermida or who knows and that he is pushing on Peavy to let Dempster know – if you decide to make this thing protracted, we can replace you. Could Hendry even push Dempster into signing before next Thurs?

Re: Peavy’s salary – it is only 8 mill or so next year, so that actually would give Hendry some flexibility (as opposed to Demp or if Lilly was traded…). It’s 2010 and beyond that would be the problem.

if you blow the whole trade wad on Peavy?