Just Who Are the Cubs' Best Baserunners?

by Bill Potter on Nov 30, 2008 11:45 AM CST

It's been debated here and elsewhere throughout the year as to whom are the Cubs best baserunners. Looking at today's Phil Rogers (yes, I know, Phil Rogers) notes column, he cites the 2009 Bill James Handbook to try and quantify some of the Cubs' best and worse base runners.

From the article:

James assigns a plus-minus number based on how often players went from first to third on singles, second to home on singles and first to home on doubles, among other things. Among the Phillies' ratings were Jimmy Rollins' plus-46, Shane Victorino's plus-34, Jayson Werth's plus-28 and Chase Utley's plus-21.

Compare that to these regulars with the Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome plus-25, Mark DeRosa plus-13, Alfonso Soriano plus-12, Mike Fontenot plus-12, Ryan Theriot plus-7, Aramis Ramirez plus-7, Derrek Lee minus-9 and Geovany Soto minus-9.

Found this interesting, especially as some of the merits of potential lead off hitters are discussed in the offseason. Now, it doesn't solve everything, obviously, but the numbers do reinforce some opinions and shed some light into one the Cubs perceived weaknesses.

Plus, it beats talking about Rich Hill's 19 walks in 19.1 innings in Venezuela.

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i think

the cubs just run at stupid times. Theriot was horrible base running this year. I also think we need to get us a new first base coach which is why i was hoping for Ryno to take the role this year but of well. I am also really surprised to see lee at minus 9.

by Glacier on Nov 30, 2008 12:06 PM CST reply actions

Theriot was particularly bad.

Not only was he incapable of tagging to third on a deep fly to right, but he would typically wind up so far off of second that he’d almost get doubled off.

This must have happened at least a half-dozen times.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Dec 1, 2008 9:31 AM CST up reply actions

I wonder a few things about this stat...

First, is it a count variable or a ratio variable?

Also, does it take into account hit-and-run situations? It is unlikely that Lee would get a hit-and-run situation with Ramirez up, and it is unlikely that Soto would hit-and-run because he’s just SO slow. DeRosa and Fukudome, on the other hand, may be more likely candidates to hit and run being frequently further down in the order.

I’m not saying they aren’t good baserunners. Just that their awesomeness might be somewhat overstated by their spot in the order. And conversely, that Lee’s numbers might be negatively inflated by his spot.

by SouthernCub on Dec 1, 2008 9:42 AM CST up reply actions

this

is one of my biggest gripes about this team. if we could effectively learn to run the basepaths I think it would be bigger than any FA acquisition this year. Getting picked off and running into outs cost us 100 runs last year I’d bet.

Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!

by cubsluver22 on Nov 30, 2008 12:42 PM CST reply actions

ARAMIS +7!!! THIS IS REASON TO CELEBRATE!

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Nov 30, 2008 1:29 PM CST reply actions

It's the tall socks

they make him FAST

Derrick Rose-2009 ROTY Tyrus Thomas-2009 MIP...hope I'm at least half right

by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Nov 30, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions

the same as Theriot

shows how bad of a base runner Theriot is. or maybe thoses socks are making ARAM faster haha

by Glacier on Nov 30, 2008 6:14 PM CST up reply actions

I’ll throw BP’s baserunning numbers into the discussion as well.

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by cwyers on Nov 30, 2008 1:51 PM CST reply actions

Not cool Colin, not cool.

Anything to help those Casey Mcgehee supporters…He’s 8th on the team!

Dan

(sarcasm)

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Nov 30, 2008 1:58 PM CST up reply actions

DeRo is a better baserunner than Dome?

That seems strange, but maybe it’s true.

Do you know what all of the categories are for Bill James’ +/-? Is a CS a -1 whether or not it is a busted hit-and-run?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 30, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions

I know very little about the James numbers.

I think the proper way to handle the issue is through a run expectancy framework, the way the BP numbers do it. James for some reason doesn’t believe in the RE framework (probably dating back to his differences with Pete Palmer over linear weights versus runs created.)

As far as a hit and run – there’s absolutely no way to tell, just looking at the data, whether or not the hit and run was on.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Nov 30, 2008 8:10 PM CST up reply actions

The case for making DeRo the leadoff man gets stronger.

Not that Lou would ever do so.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by daver on Dec 2, 2008 1:15 PM CST up reply actions

This kind of says a few things about the batting order

A) If DeRosa could play SS as good as Theriot than playing Fontenot at 2B would make for a better offensive situation since Fontenot was plus 12 and better than Theriot with a left handed bat. To me this, the OBP and all that screams for a platoon for the Bayou Duo.

B) It says that Fukudome currently is best suited to be the leadoff hitter followed by DeRosa then moving Soto to the 3rd spot in the order, followed by Ramirez, a lefty hitter, Soriano, and then DLee and Fonty. This would be a powerful lineup

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Nov 30, 2008 3:17 PM CST reply actions

+1

on the Bayou Platouniot

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 30, 2008 7:11 PM CST up reply actions

POW, WHAM and BAM!

The Bayou Duo is now the Bayou Platouniot…super heros, all we need is to trade for Brad Hawpe for the RF and we got the LSU lineup!

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Dec 1, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions

I like considering Dome in the lead-off spot

… assuming he improves some of his fundamentals in ST

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by digitalbenjamin on Dec 1, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions

Do these numbers really mean anything?

We all know that not all singles are created equal. Counting the number of times that each player went from 1st to 3rd on a base hit doesn’t mean anything unless you break down the base hits by type of hit — i.e. infield singles, hard hit balls to LF, bloops into RF with the RF-er playing deep, etc.

This is the first I’ve heard of this stat, but based on what I know about it, I don’t see how it’s really a good measure of anything.

by kanderber on Nov 30, 2008 3:28 PM CST reply actions

I have devised the perfect baseball stat.

[sarcasm]
I take all of the numbers representing desirable stats on the stat sheet and add them together. Then I take all the numbers representing the undesirable stats and add them together. Then (and this is the key bit) I subtract the second number from the first. Works every time, except when it doesn’t.
[/sarcasm]

Without any sort of link to the article or explaination of the methodology of how he arrived at these numbers, it’s kind of hard to judge whether to give his results any weight. I don’t remember much from high school statistics, but I do remember enough to be curious about his formulae.

Shameless self promotion!

by znohitter on Nov 30, 2008 4:25 PM CST reply actions

well said

good point

by Glacier on Nov 30, 2008 6:16 PM CST up reply actions

Hmm, Brian Roberts would instantly make us a better baserunning team

In case Spendry is reading….

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Nov 30, 2008 5:32 PM CST reply actions

Doesn't baserunning also include SB, CS, and pickoffs?

If so, I’d think that might alter some of those stat lines. I do appreciate the consideration of other aspects of baserunning here, but James’ numbers tell only half the story. It’s certainly valuable to take extra bases when possible, but it’s also very important to avoid making outs on the basepaths.

by SouthernCub on Dec 1, 2008 6:27 AM CST reply actions

IMO...

…Fukudome, DeRosa and Johnson are the best “baserunners”.

The thing about the Cubs is this; its not really who there best baserunners are, but the fact that they have several starters who are below average on the bases. As a club, I would consider them below average in this department.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Dec 1, 2008 9:52 AM CST reply actions

Are you saying...

… speed or smarts or both? (I’d say both)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 1, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions

Well, we definitely lack speed for the most part...

And I’d say we probably lack smarts for the most part as well. Especially when you consider that one of our speed guys (Theriot) certainly seems to lack smarts on the basepaths.

by SouthernCub on Dec 1, 2008 10:34 AM CST up reply actions

this has shown itself.

Baserunning is a complex level of instantly assessing the pitch, the ball batted and the composite result of the fielder—-it is anticipation and reaction.

Again another analogy, Larry Bird and Wayne Gretzky have been said to see the game in front of them better than anyone, anticipate the game before players actually moved. Fontenot appears to have those instincts, so does DeRosa and Fukudome while Theriot is a head down and attempt to out run a play. Why was Lou Brock so good at base running with just above average speed?

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Dec 1, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions

You can be...

…a good baserunner without speed, because you make good reads and good decisions. With that said, to be a legit threat on the bases, you have to combine some speed with the above as well.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Dec 1, 2008 10:59 AM CST up reply actions

Right...

you can also be a bad baserunner WITH speed if you don’t make good decisions. A fast baserunner with good reads and decision-making is obviously ideal, but there can be a balance between the two.

by SouthernCub on Dec 1, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply actions