Including the salary for the recent exercised 2009 club option for Rich Harden, the current committed salaries for Cubs players is approximately $124M with incentives of almost another $6M.

At the time of this writing (October 21, 2008), Jim Hendry has already been extended for 4 years.  He was interviewed by MLB’s Carrie Muskat in the following article.  The tone of this message makes it sound that Hendry would be content with finding a lefty bopper OF to compete with Fukudome and that Pie will be the starting CF.  In addition, in this article (written by Gordon Wittenmyer), Cubs chairman Crane Kenney mentions that he doesn’t anticipate any significant moves, but rather tweaking may be all that is needed.  A few weeks ago, it was reported that the payroll would bump up.  Now, this may be a lot of fluff to redirect the media, hype to increase the value for players that will be dealt, or some of it may be true.  We’ll see, as right now, the Cubs brass is in organizational meetings, and the General Managers meetings are right around the corner.

I am awaiting Jim Hendry’s phone call, to which I would recommend the following.

Assumption: Cubs Payroll will go up to, but not exceed, $150M.

The current status for movable parts is:

1. Free agents:

·        RHP Ryan Dempster

·        OF Jim Edmonds

·        RHP Chad Fox

·        RHP Bob Howry

·        RHP Jon Lieber

·        1B Daryle Ward

·        RHP Kerry Wood

1. Eligible for arbitration:

·        IF Ronny Cedeno

·        LHP Neal Cotts

·        RHP Chad Gaudin

·        OF Reed Johnson

·        RHP Michael Wuertz

1. Club options:

·        RHP Rich Harden ($7 million; picked up Oct. 8)

·        C Henry Blanco, $3 million ($300,000 buyout)

1. Player options: None
2. Non-tender possibilities: None

My General Manager Moves:

1. Cubs Free Agents:
   1. Sign Ryan Dempster to a 3-year, $33M deal with $900K incentives per year (award bonuses: $75,000 each for Gold Glove or All Star selection, $0.2M for LCS MVP, $0.3M for MVP, $0.3M for Cy Young ($0.2M for 2nd place in vote, $0.15M for 3rd, $0.1M for 4th or 5th),
   2. Sign Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $16M deal with $2M incentives per year (performance bonuses: $.35M for 40 games finished, $0.5M for 50 games, $0.6M for 60 games; award bonuses: $0.25M for WS MVP, $0.15M for LCS MVP, $75,000 for All Star, Gold Glove),
   3. Do not offer contracts to Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bob Howry (offer arbitration), Jon Lieber, and Daryle Ward.
2. Arbitration:
   1. Re-sign Ronny Cedeno to a 1-year, $425K deal.
   2. Re-sign Neal Cotts to a 1-year, $860K deal.
   3. Re-sign Chad Gaudin to a 1-year, $2M deal.
   4. Re-sign Reed Johnson to a 1-year, $3M deal.
   5. Re-sign Michael Wuertz to a 1-year, $920K deal.
3. Club options:
   1. Decline option for Henry Blanco, paying $300K.  Re-sign Henry Blanco to a 2-year, $4M deal.

At this point, the combined salary is at $149.5M, with incentives of $8M.  This totals approximately $157.5M, or $7.5M over budget.

More moves are needed to shed the budget, and improve the team.  This will be achieved via free agent signing and trades.

• Trade Jason Marquis to any team that will take him.  Get 1-2 prospects to save face, but this is a salary shedding move.  Most likely $2.5M will need to be covered, and approximately $7.375M is shed.
• Sign Free Agent Adam Dunn to a 5 year, $80M with $5M sign-on bonus and $1M yearly incentives.  Ideally, I would like to sign Mark Teixeira – he would be the perfect fit.  Young (28), lefty, defensive first baseman who can hit for average and power.  The reality is that the years and dollars will likely be driven too high by the Yankees (and possibly the Red Sox).  If we could get him for 6 years at $20M per year, do it.  I think that the Yankees will go a longer term, and an annual salary possibly reaching $25M.  Dunn (29) brings a questionable glove and low speed, high power, high OBP (walks) and high strikeout rate.  Assume budget goes up by $16M (plus $5M for the sign-on). 
• Trade Derrek Lee and Felix Pie in a three-way deal with the Giants and Marlins, sending Lee to the Giants, Matt Cain and Felix Pie to the Marlins, and the Cubs get Alex Hinshaw (LOOGY) and Jeremy Hermida (RF).  Obviously this hinges on the fact on whether Dunn (or Teixeira) signs first.  We do not want to be in a position where we are left without a 1B (Hoffpauir/DeRosa platoon is not the answer here). We shed $12M.  Alex Hinshaw replaces Scott Eyre in the Cubs bullpen as a very inexpensive solution.  Jeremy Hermida moves Fukudome over to a platoon situation with Reed Johnson in center, and provides an inexpensive left handed solution in right field with great potential.
• Trade Sean Marshall and 1-2 prospects for Jake Peavy and cash consideration ($1M).  Peavy is set to be paid $8M in 2009, so the net is approximately $6.3M.  Any cash considerations to offset his extended contact would be great, as he  just signed a contract last year for:

a.       2010: $15M

b.      2011: $16M

c.       2012:$17M

d.      2013 $22M club option ($4M buyout)

All of these moves yield a 25-man roster of:

1. Starting Rotation:
   • Ryan Dempster
   • Rich Harden
   • Ted Lilly
   • Jake Peavy
   • Carlos Zambrano
2. Relief Pitchers:
   • Neal Cotts
   • Chad Gaudin
   • Angel Guzman
   • Alex Hinshaw
   • Carlos Marmol
   • Jeff Samardzija
   • Kerry Wood (Cl)
3. Position Players
   • LF - Alfonso Soriano
   • CF - Kosuke Fukudome (platoon)
   • CF - Reed Johnson (platoon)
   • RF - Jeremy Hermida
   • 1B - Adam Dunn
   • 2B - Mark DeRosa
   • SS - Ryan Theriot
   • 3B - Aramis Ramirez
   • C - Geovany Soto
   • Bench - Ronny Cedeno
   • Bench - Mike Fontenot
   • Bench - Henry Blanco
   • Bench - Micah Hoffpauir

And a starting lineup as:

1. Ryan Theriot (R)
2. Kosuke Fukudome (L)
3. Aramis Ramirez (R)
4. Adam Dunn (L)
5. Alfonso Soriano (R)
6. Jeremy Hermida (L)
7. Geovany Soto (R)
8. Mark DeRosa (R)

Total Payroll for 2009: $152.6M with $14M in incentives or sign-on bonuses.  Assuming 10% of incentives are realized, we are talking about a $158.5M, or $8.5M over budget.  In order to get back to the NTE $150M budget, do not pull the trigger on the Jake Peavy deal, and Sean Marshall becomes our #5 starter.  This would yield a payroll of $149.5M.  If Dempster does not accept the deal, then definitely pull the trigger on Peavy as his replacement.  This would bring the payroll further down to $145.5M.