Dero should lead off in 09. Here's why.
by Steve Sax on Nov 7, 2008 12:36 AM CST
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PrintLou wants a speedy leadoff man and yes its a good luxury to have. However, with an inflated existing payroll unless we drop some denaro or give up prospects its not possible. Therefore, why not look within the team. Dero isnt the best runner but hes smart on the bases. I ll take brains and average speed any day. He sees a lot of pitches, gets on base a lot, walks, and he's a good hitter. Almost every rally in 08 started with Derosa. He leads the team in runs scored not due to his speed but because he plays with heart.
Derosa is the answer, not dropping mega dollars on high risk guys like Furcal or pipe dreams like Roberts. He knows how to get to home plate PERIOD and thats why Dero should lead us into battle.
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I could be ok with that...
but let’s please not pretend that “almost every rally in 08 started with Derosa”; also, i highly doubt his heart was the reason he led the team in runs scored. Let’s use rational arguments, and they certainly exist for this case.
Free Ronny Cedeno
Deros stats back it up
He’s a great offensive weapon that the Cubs don’t take advantage of like they should. And I’m standing by Dero being in the middle of every rally if you want stats look up his runs scored.
As long as it isn't Soriano in the lead-off I'm good.
Sign, and let Venus Dimilo lead-off….just get Alfonso out of there! DeRo is a decent option in-house.
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked. "Oh, you can't help that," said the Cheshire Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
with or without
uniform?
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions
I like statistics.
Because with statistics, we use facts.
Fact: Theriot was #16th in MLB in OBP – .387
Fact: DeRosa was #27 in MLB in OBP – .376.
Fun Fact: Ramirez was #21st in MLB in OBP – .380.
If we are talking about being smart on the bases, Riot stole 22 bases, whereas DeRo stole 6. Full disclosure, the former was caught 13 times, and the latter, 0. Riot hit .301, DeRo, .285. And Mark struck out almost twice as often as Ryan did. Seems like Riot was on base more, hit better, and stole more bases.
I’m not sayin’ Ryan should be batting lead off, but he has the facts to back it up over Mark. And I love Mark like a fat kid loves cake.
And Alfonso got on base at a .344 clip, stealing 19 bases.
Just sayin’.
Dan
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
Lead-off needs to be a team concept guy. Soriano is far from that with a stick in hand.
I hate to re-live much of the summer here, but tell me if this sounds familiar. Soriano strikes out, Theriot shoots one through the righ side, D Lee grounds into a double play. It became beyond predictably sad. All teams need to do is put a “Dunn/Bonds/Fielder” shift on Theriot and we can just fast forward to the bottom of the second to look for early game offensive production. The Cubs need to get Soriano down in the 4 or 5 hole (depending if they move D Lee out of the 3 spot) and give Theriot a bat instead of a rolled up newspaper to swing. I love this team and I know I’m cracking on them, but I truly believe the top of that order needs to be shuffled from ’08.
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked. "Oh, you can't help that," said the Cheshire Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
If your statistics are showing Ryan Theriot hitting better than...
…Mark DeRosa then I have to say you’re doing it wrong, and that’s just as true leading off as anywhere else in the lineup. That’s why they’re statistics – they hate Ryan Theriot!
more animals
What you talkin’ about Colin? I like DeRo way more, but Riot hit for a higher average and got on base more. Am I wrong in that?
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
We're talking about next year's lineup.
I’m not convinced that Theriot can keep his offensive performance where it was last year – and even then it was below average.
I'm convinced
that many of us will continue to be offended by Theriot’s performance…
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
Oh com'on Colin...
…I know we are talkin for next year…but what else are we gonna work with?!
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
The Riot got caught like half the time in SB situations
He looked lost on the bases last year. There were times when he failed to advance on pass balls sacrafice flies due to mental mistakes. I’m not saying theres no room to improve he’s young enough of a player to gain from his experiences but he’s not there.
And Sorianos 19 steals go along with his his strike outs. He’s not a leadoff hitter. If he had any sense he would wanna bat 3-5 cause theres always more pressure on the pitcher when there are runners on also having Ramirez or Soto following your at bat forces the pitcher to throw strikes.
Riot had the lowest OPS on the team last year.
Why do you want to give him the most PAs?
If Lou would give DeRo a green light (which I don’t think he has), I would bet that DeRo could steal 22 with fewer CSs than Riot because he knows when he can steal and when he can’t.
For humor’s sake, Riot is a career .272/.339/.410/.749 hitter when leading off an inning.
DeRo is a career .309/.365/.464/.829 hitter when leading off an inning — in about twice as many PAs.
Oh, and should I mention that DeRo makes fewer dumb outs on the bases than Riot?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Statistics are just numbers
Statistics when you narrow it down dont mean anything. They are designed to predict a players performance….But as we all know baseball is unpredictable. Based on statistics the Cubs should have won the NLCS by all accounts but they didn’t. BJ Upton statistically shouldn’t have hit more than 1 homerun in the playoffs but he did. Statistics are impotant but so are all the intangibles that numbers cant measure.
Oh. My. God.
Joe Morgan? Is that you?? Please let it be.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
Running the bases isn't the most important thing with a leadoff man...
… either for speed or for “being smart”.
It’s getting on base. That’s why Juan Pierre was such a bad leadoff man. DeRosa’s OBA is good; he’d make an OK leadoff man.
So would Kosuke Fukudome, if he could bump his BA up by 30 points from last year — he did, after all, lead the team in walks.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Let's hope you are right
Fukudome should be a good leadoff guy. Takes pitches, has speed, smart on the basepads. Now if he could just get that “getting basehits” thing back together…
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
For what it's worth...
At points in his career, Barry Bonds has had OBPs of (I’m not making this up) of .515, .582, .529, and .609. I wish there was some way I could caps lock .609, but I can’t. But would you advocate signing him to play LF and bat first? Of course not, because he’s old, a giant douchebag, and he’s incredibly slow. OBP is very important for a leadoff man (because over the long run, they’re getting the most ABs out of anyone on the team), but you certainly shouldn’t ignore absolutely everything else.
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
I'd be really happy...
if Fukudome could make improvements and be our lead-off guy. I think he has pretty good potential there…
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Nov 7, 2008 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
DeRo: Best Choice On Hand
I give him DeRo a slight edge over Theriot. I believe smart base running is more important than base stealing. DeRosa is a better base runner than Theriot. I know Theriot had a better OBA than DeRosa. DeRosa has a lot more experience in the big leagues. I think he could handle the leadoff role a little better than The Riot. If DeRo doesn’t work out batting first, then you could put Theriot in that slot.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
My vote at this time
is anybody but Soriano. I think those days have to be over.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
IMO...
…I would like to see a guy that has some pop a little lower in the order, but I would certainly take DeRosa at leadoff ahead of Soriano.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Assuming the status quo Mark DeRosa would be my leadoff hitter.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
What's so ironic about this
is that of all the Cubs’ hitters, Mark DeRosa seems to be one of the least likely to leadoff by Lou’s playbook. He won’t even bat DeRosa 2nd regularly.
I think most Cub fans underestimate how important speed is to at least one of Lou/Jim for those 1-2 holes. We will be acquiring a speed player – and he may not even be a relatively high OBP player, although I have greater hopes of that now than a few years ago.
This is why, yes, DeRosa would be great at one level, but no, DeRosa will never do on the realistic Cub level. In fact, Alfonso Soriano is one of the best lead-off hitters you can expect Jim Hendry to acquire because at least Soriano’s bat is a productive one to get so many of the PAs. May the baseball gods preserve us from Gary Matthews Jr.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
This is one of Hendry's blind spots, I think.
That’s why he got Juan Pierre — that “speedy leadoff guy” — without realizing that speed is meaningless if you don’t get on in the first place.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
A.J. Pierzynski begs to differ.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 7, 2008 9:33 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I personally think the problem is more Hendry than Lou in this regard.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
I'm not sure how much it is Hendry
and how much it is the managers he works with. Lou’s the one who writes the lineup cards.
Regardless, I agree that getting to 1st is the most important thing for the guys hitting before the big sluggers. I like to see the speed hitting 6-7-8, where you are a lot more likely to need to manufacture runs with the pitcher coming up. That’s also why I don’t get the guys who say the Corey Pattersons of the world have to give up their power potential and be only lead-off guys. Not all speed has to lead off. A guy like Corey Patterson looked like he might become in 2003-2004 would have been a perfect 7-hole hitter – a guy with power to knock people in and speed to manufacture a run while the pitcher is on deck.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 7, 2008 9:42 AM CST up reply actions
This is why...
…this teflon Lou stuff is pure BS. The true teflon in the Cub’s organization has been Jim Hendry and it has been that way since he ran player development all the way back to 1994.
Piniella has a track record of playing players who produce (unlike Baker) and he also has a reputation of shaking things up if they aren’t working well. Every body wants to jump on the manager because that is the easy thing to do, but few realize, the GM has the greatest impact on a clubs long term succes, by far.
The perfect leadoff hitters are few are far between. A guy like Jimmy Rollins (or even Roberts) would be great ,and IMO, would add a dimension this club hasn’t seen since Lofton in 03. In the end, the most important thing a leadoff can do is GET ON BASE at a good clip, so your better hitters have RBI opportunities. If you can’t get someone who has both OBP and above average base stealing ability, at least have someone who is CONSISTANT at getting on base in that spot, and it ain’t Soriano with his +500 slugging percentage getting wasted away in that role.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Yep...agree 100%
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
Quick question and then a little on-topic discussion
Lofton’s available. Would you take a flier on him splitting time with Dome in CF as leadoff men?
As for “Teflon Lou,” the term as I undersand DRMH’s use refers to the fact that the national and Chicago media act scared of Lou, refusing to challenge his in-game management when something goes wrong after a game or any other overall managing strategies. This is uncommon for media and their managers. I think it is something you can look at Lou and see how he has cultivated this relationship and give him credit for it. “Teflon Lou” is an indictment of the Chicago press, not Lou Piniella.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Well...
…this is how I look at it; Hendry has been with the club since 1994, Piniella has been here since 2007, and there is no question in my mind, Piniella has pushed this club in a more positive direction than Hendry ever did during his 14 year tenure. Hendry has done some good things, but that has also been offset by some very poor organizational philosophies and improper evaluation of talent and how to put “the right pieces together”. Lou may intimidate the press a bit, but for the most part, Hendry’s ability to be likable, has allowed him to skate with Chicago media for a much longer period of time.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I agree somewhat
Not irrelevant, though, is the wins and 3 playoff berths.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Lofton...
…I really don’t know, I’d have to think this train has left the station.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I agree.
He’s 41 and hasn’t played in a year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
What is this love affair with Kenny Lofton? Is the
pull of ’03 still that strong? I full well expect that ten years from now we still will debating the merits of signing soon-to-be senior citizen Kenny Lofton.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 7, 2008 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
Kenny Lofton was an awful outfielder in 2004
And people propose investigating his services to platoon in center field in 2009. What, Vince Coleman or Wille McGee is no longer available?
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
Mark Derosa had a career year in 2008.
Let’s not be so hasty to throw him to the top of the order, now…
And “he plays with heart”? Buddy, if you don’t play with “heart”, you’re not gonna be on an MLB roster.
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
DeRosa has had three solid seasons in a row...2006, 2007, 2008
He’s a damned good ballplayer. And gets my vote for team MVP in 08.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
I'm not saying that he's a crappy ballplayer that had one awesome year.
He’s a very solid baseball player who had an above-average season last year after a generally unspectacular career. However, that doesn’t mean I’d like him to bat first. He strikes me as a good number 2 guy – gets on base at a good clip, hits for fairly good power, etc.
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
Buddy do you think Soriano plays with "heart"?
Cause if you do you’re sadly mistaken. Trust me there are alot of athletes in MLB and all over sports who are all talent no heart. I dont think batting Dero leadoff is NOT a hasty move given our choices. Soriano leading off now that’s hasty!
Ok guys
How the heck do you know this? Either way how can it be known if the athlete “plays with heart”? Did you have a “heart to heart” with them? Its there a measuring tool for this? C’mon what does it even mean…this is one of those emotional filled terms that I kinda wish would remain reserved for bar stools after a heavy night of drinking and reminiscing, eg; “He’s got heart bro!”
Agreed...
I’ll say that I don’t think Soriano plays with a lot of brains sometimes.
But I don’t think anyone can say that anyone plays the game of baseball without heart, for the reasons you listed: (1) it doesn’t even have any discernible meaning, and (2) you couldn’t measure it even if it did have meaning.
You can say Soriano plays the outfield badly. That’s measurable. You can say Soriano lacks discipline at the plate. That’s measurable. But saying he plays with no heart just makes no sense.
Yes I do.
You have to have a passion for the game to play pro ball – you don’t just “decide” to play because you can get good money.
Oh, plus the goal of baseball is to outscore your opponent – not out-“heart” them.
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
Yeah
Lets get back to the goal of the game, rather than this comepletely subjective idea of “who has heart, and who doesn’t”. This is almost as bad as the “I’m a better fan because…” argument.
You guys post with real heart.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Whoever posts with the most heart should always post first in a thread
because then they get the most chances at positively affecting the outcome of the thread and pumping up their posting statistics
Tommie Agee was out.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good, and it could be good again." TM
by Weeghman Park on Nov 7, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
My posts usually have a lot of intangibles
or is that illegibles?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
So long as they're not
ALL-CAPPY.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Yeah, you definitely short-hopped
your response after a double clutch. It’s all good so long as you got dirt on your uni doing it.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I'm working on a statistic to measure the intangibles
I’ll unveil it here when I am finished. I figure I can start with measuring the intangibles of baseball blog posts and then extrapolate to the actual game itself in the same way we all do imaging that we are GMs or managers ourselves. The key is right here in our midsts.
Tommie Agee was out.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good, and it could be good again." TM
by Weeghman Park on Nov 7, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
sorry,
I think you’re way off base here. Soriano works hard when he needs to. Towards the end of the season he was going back to the wall, leaping for catches, stealing bases…
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
A "real" lead off hitter should be priority #1
Peavy is a luxury we can’t afford in that it will likely cost us the chance to get a leadoff hitter either in trading talent
or salary. I was never big on the Brian Roberts thing before last season, now I would give up A LOT to get him. I know I point this out endlessly but I when I went to the Cubs/Phillies series the 2nd weekend of the season I came away mad as hell and convinced the Cubs had two problems which would probably cost them the season. NO lead off hitter ( or to be specific Soriano at lead off) and Lou’s inability to manage a game ( both bench and BP) I got reamed all season because “the Cubs have the best record in the NL so how can you say that” In the post season the chickens came home to roost. In one game watching Soriano vs Victorino ( Rollins was on the DL) I saw that you need a lead off hitter and it goes way beyond the stats you can quote. In their first at bats Victorino took at least 10 pitches and Sori was down on 3 . It sets the tone for the game, it is essential and it is not just about hitting or stolen bases it is about seeing EVERYTHING a pitcher might throw and being patient. I don’t think Dero is good enough and under NO circumstances can Lou EVER be allowed to use Soriano again, the only way to stop this is to get a real lead off hitter. Roberts, Furcal , or whoever else we can snag. There is NOTHING more important for this team to do.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
I have to agreed with you here
Damn good point and a very relevant example. This Peavy thing…and I could be completely wrong, but it feels like when you go out to buy a car. You know, you get to the lot take a look at what you set to look at, and the salesman shows you the “luxury” model. You go back in forth in your head…think of all the ways to make it happen…and in the end you end up with the base model with a bike rack (ie; what you really NEEDED).
Of course, when you have the budget the Cubs have
marginal gains can make all the difference in the world – or to carry the car analogy forward…. If you have the $$$, go ahead and buy the extra safety features so your 97-win season doesn’t just get run over by a Model-T(orre).
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Ace pitchers are never luxury items the Cubs can't afford.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
But
Don’t you think DS is right about other needs? How do you balance that with trying to obtain someone like Peavy? I guess if you let Demp walk (which I am not averse to), and can obtain Peavy without screwing the chances of filling other gaps then I’m for it.
DS is absolutely right about other needs
which is why I think any Peavy trade means you have to trade Lilly or Z later and also why Jim hasn’t said yes yet.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
You have limited resources
Pitching is not our problem and likely won’t be but no lead off hitter is literally killing us. I am very skeptical of Furcal but if the Cubs
can afford Peavy and Furcal fine, if not try to trade for Roberts or somebody else , if we trade for Peavy we won’t have anything left.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 12:29 PM CST up reply actions
Pitching is always a potential problem.
Teams should collect as many high ceiling pitchers as they can get their hands on. Peavy has fallen into our laps. We can’t ignore this. It may not be the overall best move, but we should all prefer Peavy to Dempster.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Z is very unlikely to waive a no trade clause
and is not that valuable in trade re contract and other issues, Lilly would be blue chip trade indeed but I for one would be leery of giving up the farm to trade for Peavy as it could mean losing BOTH Lilly and Dempster. In my mind again getting a lead off hitter should be the #1 issue and until he can be done everything else should be on hold. Not my perfect choice but I would certainly see what the Red Sox want for Crisp who would feel two needs at once and is supposedly on the market.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
There's a simple equation, folks.
1=1=1
Which is to say:
One run scored equals one run prevented by pitching equals one run prevented by your defense. They’re all the same in the big picture. The market for baseball players is relatively small and not very fluid, and so you really limit your options by convincing yourself that you have needs that don’t really exist. Just remember: 1=1=1.
Have the win shares been calculated for 2008 yet?
Or does everyone have to do that themselves.
Tommie Agee was out.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good, and it could be good again." TM
by Weeghman Park on Nov 7, 2008 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
I think THT has them.
I don’t really care for Win Shares – I think they’re too much work for something I can do in an hour or two with some decent linear weights, and I don’t like some of the underlying assumptions (you CAN suck enough to have negative value to a team, given the baseline Win Shares uses.)
????
Not sure where you are going there but fixing a problem you don’t have and letting another one fester is no way to improve.
Certain parties here assured us that getting Harden would be the key to success, he had “filthy” stuff and that was all we needed.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
The Cubs do not have "problems."
They have the best ballclub in the National League. Even the best teams don’t win 162 games, and two playoff teams are basically a coinflip. This isn’t to say that the Cubs can’t get better, of course.
But you get better by getting better players. And lemme assure you, here’s how this equation works:
Jake Peavy is better than Jason Marquis to a much larger extent than just about any proposal I’ve seen here to swap out current players for potential replacements. It’s really that simple.
Did the post season teach you nothing ?
Playoff teams are a “coin flip” ? The Cubs have looked like a deer caught in headlights for the majority of their post season at bats for TWO YEARS. They simply MUST have legitimate lead off hitter because I don’t think Peavy is pitching 12 shut out innings waiting for the Cubs to score. Lead off sets the game. The F(*&R%$$ing Philies had TWO lead off men and so did the Dodgers. I think the Red Sox have as many as 3 and I can’t count the number on Rays. You swap out Marquis for Peavy and you are most likely losing Dempster as well as Marshall the only legit back up starter and you still have no lead off hitter and very little speed. I don’t see this as a better team at all.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 1:03 PM CST up reply actions
Really?
So… the Cubs didn’t have a 5.19 ERA in the playoffs? They pitched shutouts every game and just didn’t score runs?
It was a total team failure in all three phases of the game – offense, defense and pitching.
The Cubs had the best offense in the regular season. They had the second-best pitching (behind the Dodgers.) I don’t see where people get the idea that the offense was a significant weakness for the Cubs.
Stats are misleading here
In the most of the games the Cubs kept their opponent to few runs in the start but simply could not score or score little. Like I said common wisdom was getting Harden was are magic pill but it did not work out that way
Cubs post season pitching is erratic , their post season hitting is unmitigated DISASTER.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions
Would it wrong
To say that the post-season is somewhat misleading as well? As Colin points out, we had the best offense in the regular season. What does the aqusition of Peavy do? Potentially replicate what we hoped for in pitching for this last post-season less the let downs in offense and (yuck) defense? I do think that looking at a leadoff hitter as the cure-all might be an overshot.
Small sample size.
Teams slump – the Cubs offense just began slumping at the wrong time. Crazy stuff can happen in three games.
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
What happens if you trade Lilly for Brian Roberts
and Roberts goes 1-15 in the NLDS? Anyone can have a slump at any time, including the playoffs. Roberts is 1-4 in the ASG, and has yet to have a post-season PA. That doesn’t sound like a sure-fire cure to the Cubs’ post-season hitting funk.
In game 1, the Cubs had a 2-0 lead without a contribution from their leadoff batter. Their pitcher coughed the lead up.
In game 2, the leadoff batter got on with a single and advanced on a WP. The next two batters struck out and the third flied out.
It seems as though the leadoff hitter might not be the sole means of scoring runs, after all.
And, as Colin pointed out, the Cubs stunk in all phases of the game.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
the post season is a crapshoot
a team that wins 97 games in the regular season and then gets swept in the post season doesn’t have a particular flaw to fix by bringing in a new player. They were not convinced that they could win, so they didn’t win. And even if they HAD been convinced, Dempster’s terrible outing in Game 1 killed it.
It was bad luck. It was lack of mental preparation. It was, even possibly, bad managing.
It was NOT the lack of Brian Roberts.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
So
Does this make the case that if pitching remains stable (or to some degree better) supposing the aquisition say of Peavy, that offensively we can remain pretty much the same? I’m not in the camp that feels big moves a needed, and I think the case has been made that our offense was fine through the regular season. But, there still is the question of production from Dome and at this point whoever(s) are in CF.
If it is such a crapshoot why bother to change at all
Just re-sign Dempster & Wood & Blanco heck Howry for that matter, I mean we won 97 games and just
lost because our hitting slumped at the wrong time . You look at what your biggest weaknesses where and you fix them. If you leave Lou the option of using Soriano or simply don’t make an upgrade to a lead off then history is doomed to repeat itself. Peavy no more than Harden will get you any rings. I would love to have him but I don’t see how you do that without blowing what you need to make changes in hitting and in some cases fielding. Let’s suppose Red Sox would take Marshall and 2 top pitching prospects ( I don’t see them wanting Pie or Cedeno but if they do fine) for Crisp ? I say do THAT and solve two problems ( lead-off & CF) but you see you can’t try that if you traded to SD for Peavy. Is your plan to trade Marshall , Shark, Pie & Cedeno for Peavy and then just hope DeRo can be a good lead off and Lou would even do it ? That Pie/Johnson will work in CF , that Riot will stay at SS ? You fix the problems you HAVE ( lead off, CF, SS Left handed hitting) and don’t spend what you have to fix a problem you do not have .
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
Even if the Cubs do nothing this winter I still like their chances.
I would just change the batting order with of coarse Dero leading off
actually
I utterly advocate doing NOTHING, except resigning who we have right now.
I wouldn’t even move Soriano in the lineup. I’d put Cedeno in for Riot, move Pie to Right, put Dome in center with Johnson. That’s it. Everything else stays the same.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions
Those who can not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
the past where we won
97 freakin games in the regular season???
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
The past were we got swept out two years in a row
There is that other line about the definition of madness doing things exactly the same but expecting the outcome to change.
I don’t freak out and advocate the whole sale tear down but keeping pat won’t work either.
Does it matter if we won 97 games or 85 games etc. If you are blown away two years in a row in the first round of the playoffs SOMETHING needs to change. You want to keep Howry , Ward & Edmonds. Heck lets bring back Lieber , not use him and cut him, same with Eyre because that is how we got to 97 wins.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
what needs to change
is that the team needs to get comfortable with the idea of winning in October.
I think that’s better done by going back over and over again, than shaking up the lineup that won 97 games in a season.
I do want to keep Ward. Edmonds too. Howry, eh.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 7, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions
Ok I give up
if you think just going at it again and keeping WARD will work , there is no way I am going to convince you otherwise.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 7, 2008 5:07 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
Doggie Stalker’s got it right if we can make some improvements I’m all about it. But we can’t dismiss the fact that the Cubs had a flippin dynamite team that underachieved in3 games. As is were still a good team but hey as long as the competition is out there trying to improve that should be our focus as well… If all else fails DERO Leads Off.
Throwing Ibanez in the mix
and switching Dome to center may be good enough.. Thats probably the cheapest solution but not a smart move for the future. For the sake of right now Id jump on it Ibanez and Aramis have virtually the same numbers. Imagine a guy like that batting between Ramirez and Soriano that’s sick.
Ibanez is 37 years old...
… the age at which a player’s performance can drop off with no warning.
Stay away, especially because he’s expensive.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
For the Cubs in 09'
The bottom line the Cubs need a switch hitting(prefferable but not a must) speedy leadoff guy!
Then we need either a lefty or switch hitting patient 2 hole hitter. Against a RH pitcher and a fast guy on 1st base, the 2 hole hitter is a great position for a hit and run as well as a huge hole on the right side for him to pull the ball through with a speedy rabbit on first.
These are things the Cubs don’t have and pretty much havent ever had consistantly. Pretty much throughout the whole league. All good teams have a speedy leadoff hitter and a left handed 2 hole hitter when playing a RH pitcher.
These things killed us vs the RH pitching dominating Dodgers.
leadoff
i like theriot.the leadoff hitter,s job is to get on base.since theriot,s main skill seems to be hitting singles this would be a good spot for him. theriot hater,s please respond.
Is Lou a Theriot hater?
I ask because Lou seems determined to get a different lead-off hitter. You’d think that if the Cubs believed in Theriot, that he’d fit the job for the reasons you say. And yet, for some reason, the Cubs are determined to get someone else. It’s odd.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 8, 2008 5:41 AM CST up reply actions
I think Lou...
…would prefer a leadoff hitter who not only can get on base, but is someone who is an above average base stealing threat. I tend to agree with that because of how disruptive that type of player can be to the pitcher, and the pressure it puts on the defense.
In the end, they may not be able to get that type of guy, but I do think they will try.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Say the Cubs managed to get Carlos Beltran in trade
and his legs were healthy. Who would you rather lead-off – Beltran, Soriano, or Theriot?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Soriano.
Please give me a leadoff guy who will make a dumb out on the bases less than once a week.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
I'm not necessarily defending Soriano, but...
… seriously, you’re arguing that he made 26 “dumb outs” on the bases last year?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I'm saying that Theriot made at least one dumb out on the bases per week.
Between the times Riot was thrown out trying to go to 3B on a grounder to the left side, the times he was picked off, the times when he was thrown out trying to advance on a short passed ball, and the times where he was CS because he ran despite having a bad jump I think that is at least 26.
And that doesn’t count the times he didn’t trail Sori when Sori was attempting to steal 3B, and the times he didn’t tag up and go to 3B on a long fly ball. Ryan Theriot is a bad baserunner. And, unlike Michael Barrett, Theriot’s main job is to get on base and run the bases well. It’s not like he is supplying John McDonald’s glove at SS to compensate. And it’s not like Theriot is extremely fast, either.
Sori may not have the ideal OBP to bat leadoff, but he is a much better baserunner than Riot. That’s why I chose Sori from the list I was given (Beltran, Sori, Riot). DeRo is also a far superior baserunner, though he doesn’t have the cross-over step and quick acceleration it takes to steal 30 bases.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
You have to look long and hard...
…to find anyone who makes poorer decisions on the bases.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Oh, now that I agree with.
Theriot is NOT a smart baserunner, but I thought the original post was referring to Soriano (who, truth be told, also makes some dumb baserunning decisions).
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yes he does...
…and truth be told, the Cubs aren’t blessed with too many smart baserunners on the current roster. From a “smarts” perspective, the best baserunner on the club is Reed Johnson, and DeRosa and Soto are pretty good as well.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Agreed.
Now, does that mean Johnson should lead off? I would argue “maybe”, because the Cubs did go 12-6 last year in games Johnson led off.
Against certain LHP, this might be a very good idea. Johnson hit .333/.399/.449 vs. LHP in 2008, and that doesn’t appear to be an aberration: lifetime vs. LHP he is .313/.376/.460.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
You could do a lot worse
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Johnson can hit anywhere in the lineup v. LHP.
However, last year, his numbers leading off an inning were abysmal: .226/.265/.290, and Lou picked horrid spots to have him lead-off, often against RHP, where Reed answered, not surprisingly, going .234/.302/.364.
The Cubs went 12-6 in games RJ led off but he did not help that happen.
By the way, if everyone’s agreeing that Theriot can’t run the bases well, and most people agree he can’t field well, what are “all the little things” that he apparently does so well?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
He's really good a brown-nosing...
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Hard to explain...
…but I was impressed with his OBP clip this past year and the guy does get a lot of hits (never a bad thing). Also, for the lack of his arm and or range, he has been able to avoid being overly exposed at SS. I don’t know if that is luck or what, but he has clearly held his own at the position without a great deal of natural talent.
Looking at his physical limitations, Theriot is clearly an over achiever and sometimes, its not a bad thing to have 1 or 2 of those guys to help stimulate a team by example. I have no idea whether he has that type of effect on other players or not, but he certainly gets more out of his talent level, than anyone else on the club.
In the end, if you can find a better SS, please do.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Do you happen to know what his lead-off numbers
were with Toronto?
I’d be interested to see more history before drawing any conclusions.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 10, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions
If you remember...
Back in 2007, Lou said he saw something good in Theriot in spring training.
Or something like that, my brain’s not at 100% yet today.
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
Can I just ask you something really quick?
This isn’t flaming or anything, but you DO know that commas and apostrophes are two completely different things, right?
CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!
Without TheRiots contributions this year
The Cubs maybe dont win the division who knows? Dero and he had career years and both played big roles in winning the division. Therefore Theriot gets his props but even though his numbers suggest he would be successful in the lead off spot it takes a certain type of player to be a good lead off hitter. He is not that type. Theriot is a kickass 2 to see alot of pitches or an awesome 7 or 8 to get the rally going. Either way he puts pressure on the pitcher cause he doesnt strike out. What he lacks is leadership at this point of his career. Dero puts the LEAD in Leadership. Boo ya kasha!
Is that a joke?
A) The Cubs would have won the division with Cedeno out at SS. Ronny won’t hit for as much average but has more pop than Theriot and he has the better glove.
B) You don’t need your leadoff man to be a leader. Hell, you don’t even need an everyday player to be your leader. I fail to see the connection between leadoff man and leadership. Why is the latter exclusive to the former?
You're right
I got a little carried away there. Probably no connection between leading off and leadership. Lead off hitters can be leaders but it is not a must.
Theriot definately did his part to help the Cubs; they won the division by just 7 games so its hard to say if guys that produced career years like The Riot and Dero had not stepped up then the Cubs maybe a wild card team. Again its just a big maybe. You gotta remember this is a guy that led the team in batting average and on base. Cedeno is a bust down who cant even spell AAA.
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