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An alternative to Dempster

I was doing some research, and found that Brad Penny will be a free agent this year. Historically, he puts up the same type of numbers as Dempster, and would be a lot cheaper. He is also 3 years younger. I know he is coming off a bad year, and one that was spent on the DL, but historically, he's just as much as an injury risk as dempster, especially when considering the type of contract Dempster will want.

 

What do you all think?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Uh, no.

 Hell no.

Over time, your quickness with a cocky rejoinder must have gotten you many punches in the face - Al Swearengen

by lemon20pie on Nov 8, 2008 6:43 PM CST reply actions  

No.

CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!

by Keith on Nov 8, 2008 6:44 PM CST reply actions  

I've also thought (and written) about alternatives to Dempster.

Dempster’s agent has recently stated that Ryan will wait mid-December or later to sign a new contract, around a month after free agents are allowed to sign. If Hendry is set on resigning Dempster and in the end isn’t able to that could leave him in a difficult situation. By that time most of the (quality) free agent pitchers that are in the Cubs’ price range could be off of the market and Hendry could be stuck without a replacement. If Peavy ends up on the Cubs that would definitely make it easier to deal with losing our best pitcher from last year, but it would still mean the Cubs lost out on signing a very good pitcher. So if that scenario was to play out we would have a rotation of Peavy, Zambrano, Lilly, Harden and Marquis, and that is assuming that Harden isn’t involved in the deal, and thats an assumption I feel comfortable making. Thats still a very, very good rotation, but imagine swapping out our worst, Marquis, for Dempster. So I propose the following idea. The Cubs give Dempster a two week window to respond to their offer and if he isn’t willing to sign before his aforementioned deadline the Cubs should go and see if they can sign a different pitcher, maybe Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets or Randy Johnson. Or, because they already would have a very good rotation with Peavy but without Dempster, Hendry could use that money on a reliever or an offensive player, or just decide not to spend that extra money at all. What I’m trying to say is that if Hendry does get Peavy he should be open to the idea of letting Dempster go, not a bad idea considering this is his first very good season as a starter.

by dakoose on Nov 8, 2008 6:47 PM CST reply actions  

i dont want to sign dempster at all

so i say i agree. i rather pay the less money to penny

by Glacier on Nov 8, 2008 6:51 PM CST reply actions  

Peavy

YES, Penny no. See dakoose post above,

by StevenABQ on Nov 8, 2008 6:56 PM CST reply actions  

i agree

no penny

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Nov 8, 2008 6:57 PM CST reply actions  

Actually,

If he leaves — and this Peavy trade doesn’t go down — I’d imagine that the next target might be Lowe. Good numbers, and his contract likely fits in very well with what the Cubs had expected to offer Ryan.

by Damen Jackson on Nov 8, 2008 6:58 PM CST reply actions  

One word.

No.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 8, 2008 7:17 PM CST reply actions  

The price has to be right.

If the price is right, I’d spend money on any high-ceiling, high-risk pitcher – from Penny to Sheets to Fr. Garcia. But the price has to be right. (And we have to have enough backups to cover Harden and this other guy, which we have now, but won’t if Marshall is traded.)

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 8, 2008 7:18 PM CST reply actions  

There is a reason the Dodgers declined his option

and bought out the contract. He not only was injured he was considered a selfish bad ass guy. When a team very much in need of pitching ( Lowe is GONE, Schmidt is still injured) declines an option in a market where SP is at a premium I would stay the hell away from him.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 8, 2008 7:34 PM CST reply actions  

has to be

good news for one cc sabathia though

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Nov 8, 2008 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Everything is good news for CC

He has the Brewers offering 100 million it can only go up from there.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 8, 2008 7:43 PM CST up reply actions  

What is the likelihood of him being healthy next year

considering that he seems to spend more time in the buffet line than on the treadmill and he was injured last season?

Demp seems to have met “conditioning Jesus”, and he hasn’t had an arm problem for at least 3 years.

I am much more confident that Demp will be able to take the ball 25 times and put up average stats than I am that Penny will take the ball 15 times and put up mildly above average stats. Which guy would be more valuable in that scenario?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 8, 2008 8:13 PM CST up reply actions  

But any situation where we're considering Penny and Fr. Garcia

is one where Peavy is a Brave and Dempster is a Yankee. I think most of us would go for Demp first (or second after Peavy). But there’s something to be said for considering a lower-cost option with a higher ceiling than bidding high on Lowe.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 8, 2008 9:41 PM CST up reply actions  

considering all he has

is shoulder tendinitis? about the same that harden and zambrano will be healthy next year. Dempster wants atleast 13m/year for 5 years… he is 33. Penny is 30 and could be signed for perhaps as low as 8m/yr, realistically around 9.5/yr.

I’m willing to wager any bet that Dempster’s line this year will be equal or worse than Penny’s.

I highly doubt Dempster will have a sub 4 era this year.

Signing Lowe is iffy, too. He will command atleast 15m/yr and the guy is old.

Penny could be had on the cheap, which is really tempting. I don’t understand the Penny hate on this board… instead of saying, “no” perhaps explain your opinion.

by scarymonsters85 on Nov 8, 2008 8:24 PM CST reply actions  

Go look at the post a few days back on Milton Bradley

or the attack on Nick Swisher for being a hick. Or suggest that Barry Bonds might fit exactly what the Cubs are looking for.

There are a lot of people who, it sure seems, would rather be lovable losers than win with someone unlikable on roster.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 8, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Then there was 2004 . .. .

When they were losers and most of the roster was unlikeable.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Nov 8, 2008 9:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I say

We do what it takes to get peavy. Then we don’t have to worry about letting dempster walk (who I think will be a #3 type starter and overpaid). Then try to trade marquis if possible. If you can get rid of marquis, then signing lowe would create a damn good rotation.

zambrano, peavy, harden, lilly, lowe

by cubsmania on Nov 8, 2008 9:00 PM CST reply actions  

So the jury says no...

but i have yet to see one solid reason why he wouldn’t benefit this rotation. Im not saying he should be the first, second, or even third option for the rotation but i feel he as a pitcher is very solid and could be acquired at a reasonable price. Also, i understand he has tendinitis, and behavior problems but i would take winning over those anyday. Plus, we already have a pitcher of that type in Big Z.

"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra

by ChiCubsFever on Nov 8, 2008 10:36 PM CST reply actions  

Well for one, he isn't a very good pitcher, even when healthy

 his career ERA is over 4, he’s only pitched over 200 innings twice in his 9 year career, he pitched over 200 innings in 2007 and broke down in ‘08 because of it and he’s a jackass to boot and not worth the trouble. The guy is a walking question mark. I’d rather see the Cubs go after Perez than Penny.

 Obviously the only way the Cubs should and will consider Penny, is if all other options fall through and their looking at scraping the bottom of the barrell for a pitcher. Then you could see Hendry do one of his incentive laden contracts and 1 year deals, but sadly I think Penny will have better offers than that and I just don’t see the Cubs being interested in him.

Over time, your quickness with a cocky rejoinder must have gotten you many punches in the face - Al Swearengen

by lemon20pie on Nov 8, 2008 11:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Right.

I’d rather take a low-initial-dollar, high-incentive-dollar chance on Freddy Garcia, who has pitched for Lou before.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 9, 2008 4:37 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm a big fan of signing Freddy Garcia

Before he got injured in Philly, he had developed a new pitch that looked very good. I don’t know what his current arsenal is, but I’d like to see him in Cubbie blue.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 9, 2008 6:32 AM CST up reply actions  

He threw a really nice game...

… in that makeup game the Tigers played at the Cell at the end of the season. With a winter’s worth of rest and further rehab, he could be a real good signing, presuming you would make the contract incentive-based (to protect against further recurrence of the injury).

I know the Cubs had worked him out before he signed with Detroit last summer. Garcia, as I mentioned, pitched several years for Lou. It would not surprise me to see the Cubs take a chance on him, especially if they can move Marquis’ contract.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 9, 2008 7:12 AM CST up reply actions  

dempster

if the cubs wont give wood a 3yr what chance does demp have of getting a 5yr.could be a case of a journeyman pitcher getting hot at the right time.great season but will he do it again?i do hope he comes back.but dont break the bank for him.

by NOMAR on Nov 9, 2008 7:53 AM CST reply actions  

Here's how it will play out...

Dempster to the Cubs, Peavy to the Braves, Wood to the Mets, Penny to the Brewers, Sabathia to the Angels, Lowe to the Red Sox, Sheets to the Yankees, Burnett to the Yankees

McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!

by MDBNIU on Nov 9, 2008 11:54 AM CST reply actions  

So, who's left for the Dodgers? Randy Johnson?

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Nov 9, 2008 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Sabathia's staying in the National League.

So will Sheets.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 9, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions  

God no

Brad Penny had an ERA over 6 last year in 17 starts. The Cubs are far too good of a team to be considering players like that.

by kanderber on Nov 9, 2008 12:35 PM CST reply actions  

HURTS HURTS HURTS HURTS HURTS

please make it stop, please, please, plase.

2004: 3.15 ERA
2005: 3.90 ERA
2006: 4.33 ERA
2007: 3.03 ERA
2008: 6.27 ERA

What, there’s no way he rebounds from a bad season? He’s cooked? Utterly done? Really? A guy who is injured in his age 30 season and puts up some bad numbers is a bad idea, even if he was a pretty good pitcher up until that point?

by cwyers on Nov 9, 2008 2:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Not necessarily, but...

… you’d have to see that as a risk, wouldn’t you?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 9, 2008 4:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Here's a theoretical question.

Who’s more of a risk – Dempster who has had one good year as a starter in the past 5 or Penny who’s had one bad year in the past 5?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 9, 2008 5:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I would consider Penny a higher risk.

Demp has met “conditioning Jesus”. Penny is still a conditioning athiest. I believe that well-conditioned players age better than those who aren’t. Also, Demp’s last arm problem was about 4 years ago. (I think he had a strained oblique last year.) He was essentially pitching full seasons out of the bullpen; I’m not worried that he wasn’t starting because he was healthy (arm-wise) and pitching.

I would also question Penny’s attitude about taking care of himself, keeping his weight down, working hard at rehab, and doing what is best for the team. If a player has problems with Joe Torre, what will happen when that player has to answer to Lou Piniella?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 9, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Exactly.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 9, 2008 5:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree...

…I sense Penny as a lazy guy who does as little as possible to get buy. When you get your legs in shape (like Dempster), its amazing how it helps to take strain off of your wing.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 9, 2008 8:43 PM CST up reply actions  

LSA

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 10, 2008 4:11 AM CST up reply actions  

I know a lot of people don't care about clubhouse stuff

& attitude but I do and Penny is the Anti-Dempster. His relationship with Dodgers was so bad he cleaned out his locker and left before the end of the season. Again we know starting pitching is always a premium and the Dodgers are down to TWO starters both kids but they let Penny walk instead of exorcising his option, stay away , stay far far away.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 9, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Of course,

because all of Ned Colletii’s decisions have been great, right?

by dakoose on Nov 9, 2008 5:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Ned did not make Penny behave like a jackass

and piss off his teammates. Do you get how trouble and how much a risk Penny must be to dump his option.
If he had enough value they could have picked up the option and TRADED him but they didn’t.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 10, 2008 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

My point is that

Coletti believed that Penny isn’t worth the risk. I’m not so sure that Coletti’s judgement is all that sound. You don’t just assume that since another team felt one way they must be right. Hell, why pick up Jim Edmonds if the Padres let him go? Penny is a talented pitcher and might not be such a problem outside of LaLa Land.

by dakoose on Nov 10, 2008 9:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, he could bounce back.

Or he could be even worse than he was in 2008. When you consider that he didn’t even care to stick around and be in the Dodgers clubhouse down the stretch and in the playoffs, you have to question his dedication to baseball. It’s even more difficult for that type of player to bounce back from a terrible season.

I don’t think it’s worth the risk. Maybe for another team. But not for the Cubs. They are too good, and have too many other better options.

by kanderber on Nov 9, 2008 5:46 PM CST up reply actions  

100% agreed.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 10, 2008 4:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Brad Penny is a fine pitcher when healthy

McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!

by MDBNIU on Nov 9, 2008 5:24 PM CST reply actions  

So is Mark Prior

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 10, 2008 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

It comes down to this.

Which do you guys think is the biggest risk.

Brad Penny with a 3 year 24 million with incentives to bump it to 10 million a year

or

Ryan Dempster for 5 year 65 million with no incentive?

To me, I think the Brad Penny contract is better, and we could even add a mutual option for year 4 and 5 if that’s what the Cubs want to do

Also it has to be considered, if Ryan Dempster walks, we get 2 picks to boost our mediorce at best farm system!

by MrShowtime on Nov 9, 2008 7:33 PM CST reply actions  

And the same thinking the Cubs used

when they picked up Dempster.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 9, 2008 10:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Not the same.

Dempster was signed for a 1 year deal with an option.

Signing Penny on a 1 year deal for insurance at a bargain rate wouldn’t be a bad idea but I suspect he will get offered more than the Cubs would be willing to pay and possible more years.

Signing Penny for 3 years would the same logic the Dodgers used when they signed Schmidt.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Nov 9, 2008 10:43 PM CST up reply actions  

i do not think dempster and penny

are equally likely to get hurt. Demp has been consistently healthy for a couple years while Penny consistently gets hurt every year.

by Cubinator on Nov 9, 2008 8:22 PM CST reply actions  

Correct.

Dempster was signed off the scrap heap in 2004. He has had ZERO arm problems since then — his only time on the DL was due to oblique problems in 2007, and that did not reoccur after he put himself through a rigorous offseason training program, which I suspect he’ll continue for the rest of his career.

Dempster, for lack of a better term, “gets it”. He understands what needs to be done to be a winner, and he did it last offseason. Many major leaguers don’t work out in the offseason, and when they’re in their 20s they can get away with that. As you get older, you can’t. I think Dempster understands this.

He is exactly the sort of player we need in the clubhouse, too. If that requires paying a little extra, DO IT.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 10, 2008 4:11 AM CST up reply actions  

it's funny that you talk about dempster

as if he is almost a sure lock to put up the 08’ numbers every year. and it’s comical that you guys are afraid of penny’s last season because he posted a 6 era… the Cubs signed dempster the season after he posted a 6.19 era season.

The “what have you done for me lately” attitude some of the members have on this board make me question how much you really know about baseball.

by scarymonsters85 on Nov 10, 2008 12:18 AM CST reply actions  

Scary trends

Brad Penny is overweight, ornery and getting older. He can be a very good pitcher, but I don’t think he’d be a good guy to lay a 3 year deal on. There can be only one David Wells.

by JodyDavis on Nov 10, 2008 11:38 AM CST reply actions  

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