Novoa was never considered to have elite stuff. Ceda’s stuff is elite by most accounts. This isn’t to say that Ceda is a lock, but with his elite stuff, and the fact that he’s cleaned up his mechanics and shown improvement, a lot of people thought he might be ready in 2009 to help the pen. I mean, people talk about Cashner’s stuff as being top notch, and by most accounts, Ceda’s was a notch better. That said, tis done with.

Btw, there are big differences with those two lines. Huge actually. 1, Ceda was in AA by year’s end. But more importantly? 95 K’s vs. 55 K’s is a huge difference.

Ceda was more than a live arm. A live arm typically refers to being able to amp up the velocity. Ceda had an absolutely filthy, filthy slider. He was a “live arm” (raw) when we got him, but we developed him. Novoa never had the secondary pitches (and it’s noted in the statistics with the difference in K’s).

Ceda’s control has improved since going to the pen. I’m not saying it will keep improving, but the reason Ceda had big control problems was largely due to his mechanics. His mechanics are clean now. The only other issue is weight. If he can

a) Keep in relatively decent shape
b) Maintain his clean mechanics that he showed last year

Then he’s a very intriguing prospect. The thing with pen prospects is that they tend to move fast. Ceda has the elite level pitches and has shown the improvement in all areas of his game this past year. Doesn’t mean he will succeed, but keep in mind the scouting reports. BP suggested that, in a worst case scenario, he’s basically a late inning pen arm. Best case was an elite closer. Bullpen prospects are a dime a dozen. Closing prospects have some value, particularly when they have elite stuff like Ceda. There’s a reason that the scouting reports were huge on him.

So, whether or not the trade was good comes down to what value you place on Kevin Gregg. Here’s the question – is Gregg better than any other pen arm we could’ve gotten on the market? That’s a very debatable notion. Is Gregg cheaper than said pen arms? Probably not. Do we have him tied down long term? Eh.

Maybe it works out. Maybe Ceda busts and Gregg is dominant for a year. I think, though, there’s an equal probability that Ceda is close to Gregg in ability as soon as this year.