Soriano career OBP: .329. Gathright career OBP: .328.

by cedarpip on Dec 17, 2008 8:42 PM CST Comment 57 comments

I did some stat comparisons on a hunch vis baseball-reference.com and these numbers really jumped out at me. Is there any doubt that Gathright should be leading off for us next year, if we don't pick up another leadoff candidate? In '07 Gathright's OBP was .371, a number Soriano has never reached (.344 was his highest, last year).

Gathright also strikes out a lot less than Soriano. It'd be nice to have a guy atop the order who could get on and run, run, run. And right now Gathright may be that guy. He is definitely a better candidate than Soriano at leadoff hands down.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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This is just silly.

At least Soriano hits a leadoff homer once in a while. If Gathright ever leads off a Cubs game with a homer, I will eat my scorecard.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 17, 2008 8:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I wont forget that statement!!!

Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!

by cubsluver22 on Dec 17, 2008 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is silly too

If someone takes a picture of that, I will laugh heartily.

by Cubinator on Dec 17, 2008 11:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hahahahaha.....

Just the scorecard part…or the entire little booklet that it comes in??? That would definitely require a camera rolling on it…haha.

by MillsChC on Dec 18, 2008 1:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just the scorecard.

I think the magazine part would be inedible.

I don’t expect to ever have to pay off on this. Gathright has hit one home run in 1145 major league AB.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 8:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Does this also include Spring Training games?

or just regular season?

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Dec 18, 2008 8:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just the regular season.

Although, Gathright has hit only one HR in 165 spring-training AB.

But no, this offer is for the regular season only.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Al, I just noticed this post, what is this, the twilight zone? Joey Gathright

leading off for the Cubs? This is ridiculous. Have we totally gone off the deep end? I understand it’s the silly season, but this is even out there for us. Give us a dose of sanity please!

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Dec 18, 2008 9:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

you right

Ted Lilly should bat first!

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Dec 18, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, we already know he doesn't like batting ninth.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

really, it's a small move.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Dec 18, 2008 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would

pay to see this

Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!

by cubsluver22 on Dec 18, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

who cares about leadoff homers? They are much more valuable with guys on base. Just ask Earl Weaver.

by cedarpip on Dec 17, 2008 8:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You asked for it.

link

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Dec 18, 2008 9:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No, No, No, No, No.

Like Al noted, what Soriano lacks in OBP, he makes up in other departments. He is a big time power threat and letting him leadoff gives him as many AB’s as possible. Soriano is a better leadoff hitter than Gathright will ever be. Does that mean that Sori is the best leadoff hitter on this team? No, but Gathright is not a better option than Soriano. In fact, Gathright shouldn’t get regular AB’s anywhere in the lineup, let alone the spot that gets the most chances throughout the course of the season.

by dakoose on Dec 17, 2008 8:50 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

We'll see him hit lead off

on Soriano off days, Soriano injury weeks off, Soriano defensive replacement days and if Lou feels like it. It’s not our decision. I think Lou will do what Lou wants to do.

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Dec 17, 2008 8:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ugh.

I’d rather have Reed Johnson lead off.

Actually, I’d rather have Jason Marquis lead off than Joey Gathright.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 17, 2008 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Al

Maybe you’ve hit on something. Jason is a good hitter. Maybe he can play RF!

(too lazy to check but unfortunately I assume he hits righty though)

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by cubstoseriesby100 on Dec 18, 2008 5:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No, Marquis hits lefthanded.

Maybe you’re on to something here.

Kidding. I think.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 8:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

we've had this discussion before, actually.

Marquis is fast enough to be a substitute runner. He’s gotten a few good knocks in. And it wouldn’t kill me to never see him pitch again.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Dec 18, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You cant be serious

This guy isnt even a full timer, not to mention his .371 OBP came in only 228 ABs

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Dec 17, 2008 9:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Joey Gathright is a 5th outfielder, nothing more

He’s here to inject some needed athleticism, speed and versatility to the outfield and on the basepads. If he gets more than 150 at bats then it means our outfield is injury ravaged and something has gone horribly wrong to our season.

I like the Gathright addition. But lets not make it out for more than it is.

by BLou on Dec 17, 2008 9:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bleh

Gathright was so good that the Kansas City Royals gave him his release. One of the worst teams in baseball didn’t want to play him. Gathright is Felix Pie without the potential. But at least Lou likes him.

by FrankSereno on Dec 17, 2008 9:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You could look at it one of two ways:

Joey Gathright got released from KC because even for them he’s bad.

The Royals are so bad because they aren’t very good at evaluating major-league talent, including Joey Gathright.

I think I know which way I look at it – after all, the Royals did sign Farnsworth and trade for Crisp and Butler so far this offseason.

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by cwyers on Dec 17, 2008 9:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What?

Billy Butler was drafted by the Royals in 2004.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Dec 17, 2008 9:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm thinking he meant...

Jacobs.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Dec 17, 2008 10:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, that makes a bit more sense.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Dec 17, 2008 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So do you think he's a good signing?

Steve Phillips on his computer use as Mets GM, "I played solitaire on my computer in my office."

by Tate491 on Dec 18, 2008 7:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

For $800k I think it's a fantastic signing for the Cubs.

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by cwyers on Dec 18, 2008 12:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Can you be specific as to why you feel this way?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Seconded...

I mean, I think he’ll be useful at what he does for the team. But “fantastic?” Can you really get that excited about signing a guy to get maybe 150 AB and play defense in the late innings? Even if he is really cheap?

by SouthernCub on Dec 18, 2008 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, my ex-wife is cheap, but I would never refer to her as "fantastic". Although, there

was that one weekend in Cabo, but I digress.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Dec 18, 2008 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No, please, do go on.

Yes, yes ... winter is indeed a pond upon which all of us must skate, braving frostbite and runny noses in the hopes that our cars will start and we shan't embarass ourselves slipping on a patch of black ice. Spring is more a quagmire of cold mud and slush, and fall is a pile of fallen leaves that may or may not hide a pile of doggy doo-doo. But summer, ah summer is an oasis of endless green that disappears all too quickly beneath our feet as we rush through its warm, glorious bliss.

by dat cubfan daver on Dec 18, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure. Let’s look at his Fangraphs page real quick here. I split the difference between his Marcels and Bill James projected wOBA, and let’s say he’ll put up a .305 wOBA, so to convert out to runs in a season:

(.305-.338)/1.15 * 650 = -18

Or roughly a replacement-level hitter, maybe a little better. (All estimates of hitting are relative to league, not position – we add in a positional adjustment separately.) So now let’s look at defense.

Eyeballing UZR/150, let’s say he’s +10 in CF. Then give him a positional bonus – I use +2.5 for playing CF. So to convert to runs above replacement, we add a replacement level bonus – +20 for the National League and +25 for the American League. Add it all together:

-18+10+2.5+25=19.5

Voila, a league-average player in the NL, a bit below in the American League.

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by cwyers on Dec 18, 2008 8:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But but

The Royals have a stronger overall outfield than we do right now. “Bad team” doesn’t mean worse in every way than the Cubs.

by JodyDavis on Dec 18, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Um.

They have Coco Crisp, David Dejesus and Jose Guillen. One of them is a good baseball player, and one of them was a good baseball player at one point. Why is that a stronger outfield than the one the Cubs currently have? (And yes, I understand that right now that outfield lacks a right fielder. I’d rather lack a right fielder than have Jose Guillen. .300 OBP from a corner outfielder? Who plays bad defense? Where can I sign up to pay $12 million for THAT?)

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by cwyers on Dec 18, 2008 8:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 8:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh sweet Jesus.

I’m thinking about flagging this post just because of its ridiculousness.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Dec 17, 2008 9:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

At least he hits GBs...but if he gets over 100 ABs and no one is hurt then...

…it will provide further evidence that Lou = Dusty….I hope we get something valuable/productive in whatever deal is being worked on that includes Pie.

by DudeVf11 on Dec 17, 2008 10:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Oh crap...

we are screwed.

by Glen Bishop on Dec 17, 2008 11:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think its a horrible idea

I mean, we did sign the guy, so its not like the poster is advocating signing him to bat lead-off. So why not try to get the best out of him? Perhaps with the right coaching and environment, the guy could blossom into a bunting, slap hitting sort of lead-off hitter. Gathright flies and would be a lot of trouble to opposing teams if he was able to get on base consistently.

Give the mana shot, it may work out, it may not.

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Dec 18, 2008 4:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Thank You for having an open mind! If Gathright leads off next year and kicks ass everyne on this blog owes us a beer.

by cedarpip on Dec 18, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, I'll buy you a brewery.

by dat cubfan daver on Dec 18, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll help.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Its just kind of funny

when discussing Bradley, a lot of people who are in favor of him bring up his OBP. When people talk negatively about Gathright, they bring up his Slug or inability to hit home runs. You know what? I think that is completely opposite how we should see view our line up.

I could care less if our leadoff hitter never hits a single home run on the season, but if he gets on base consistently, disrupts the timing of the pitchers with his speed, etc. etc., I’m all for it.

Gathright has the capability to do that, if he can do it, that would be awesome, if he can’t, well, he can be our 4th/5th outfielder then. But I don’t see the harm in seeing if has can do it.

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Dec 18, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gathright shouldn't be considered...

an option to start. So this theory about him leading off is moot.

by kanderber on Dec 18, 2008 7:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

in a similarly short-sighted assessment: career AB/HR

Soriano: 18.3 (4934 AB)
Gathright: 1145 (1145 AB)

Those decimal points are correct. This comparison is apples and oranges. And, based on what we know about Gathright (admittedly, not an overwhelming amount), we’d much rather have apples!

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by Mr Snrub on Dec 18, 2008 7:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Methinks this discussion should be tabled until

it is proven that Joe Gathright will play for the Cubs anywhere but ST. IF he comes north, IF he is ever more than a PH or PR, IF, IF, IF… If he hits like 2008, those magical three letters (DFA) will appear all over BCB.

So far, he is OF #4, at best, with the expectation of a bigger acquisition for RF.

by N Oakley on Dec 18, 2008 7:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Let me pile on...

How about this number: 68.

That is Gathright’s career OPS+. If Gathright is in the starting lineup, he would be without a doubt the weakest hitter in the lineup. You don’t give your weakest hitter the most AB’s even if he is fast. By comparison Juan Pierre is 84. Gathright is significantly worse than Juan Pierre.

by rlpete on Dec 18, 2008 9:32 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

weaker than Riot?

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Dec 18, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Way weaker.

Theriot career OPS+ = 88

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I am far, far, far from a sabermagician...

…but you really shouldn’t mess around with stats unless, at the very least, you’re aware of the looming spectre of sample size. Alfonso Soriano has 3,789 more career ABs than Joey Gathright.

by dat cubfan daver on Dec 18, 2008 9:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

You really have to stop introducing facts into these arguments. They just

muck things up and interrupt our rants.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Dec 18, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Notable objects lept over

Soriano – 0
Gathright – 2

I think the 1/1000 of a difference in OBP is just a statistical representation of the ability to leap over Japanese hurlers…

by JonH on Dec 18, 2008 9:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe we could petition to have that skill made into a baseball rule.

Then Gathright would be the best in baseball at it!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Dec 18, 2008 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

stupid stat to compare the two with

look at their slugging percentage and then see if you can make an argument

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by Chanman25 on Dec 18, 2008 11:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

.227/.279/.260

That’s Gathright’s career line “batting” lead off.

.293/.342/.550- Soriano’s career line BATTING lead off.

Smaller point Soriano’s best seasonal OBP was .368 not .344 as stated.

I don’t think Soriano should lead off. But not because he lacks anything- I think his power would be more effective in the middle of the order. I don’t really think it’s productive to discuss Soriano, because of the polarizing effect the topic has here.

"Baseball is like church- many attend, few understand." ~ Leo Durocher

by The Lip on Dec 18, 2008 7:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs