Bill James Projections

by Ryan at Cubshub on Dec 24, 2008 7:51 PM CST

Went out and got The Bill James Handbook 2009, and my personal favorite section of the book is the future projections...

PROJECTED WINS/LOSSES:
Cotts: 2-2
Dempster: 12-10
Gaudin: 4-4
Gregg: 4-3
Harden: 11-5
Lilly: 12-11
Marmol: 6-4
Marquis: 9-10
Marshall: 5-4
Wuertz: 3-2
Zambrano: 13-9

TOTALS: 81-64 (Winning Percentage: .559)

This puts the Cubs just shy of 91 wins, based on the percentage.Obviously this is projecting, and it doesnt really take the offense into account... but it suggests that some are ready for the Cubs to take a drastic step back.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I suspect the Cubs will fall short of 97 wins next season...

…but don’t really think that the James projections (especially used in this fashion) are the best way to go about it. Bill James himself doesn’t put his name on the pitcher projections – Baseball Information Solution does the projections – and predicting individual pitcher W-L records is about the hardest thing to do (well, shy of predicting saves).

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by cwyers on Dec 24, 2008 8:37 PM CST reply actions

Agreed...

…but I figured this might be an avenue of discussion that DOESNT involve free agents…

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by Ryan at Cubshub on Dec 24, 2008 8:43 PM CST up reply actions

if this is the roster on 04/01/09

And I doubt that will be the case.

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by Ivy Walls on Dec 26, 2008 11:49 AM CST up reply actions

"Baseball Information Solution"

projects Rich Harden to be the pitcher of record in 16 games- that means 20-25 starts. That’s my favorite part of the projection

by philadelphiacub on Dec 24, 2008 8:57 PM CST reply actions

Not necessarily.

You can’t project wins from pitcher starts — in recent years that’s become extremely variable because of the much larger use of bullpens. There are starting pitchers who make 34 starts — a full season’s worth — who have less than 20 decisions.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 25, 2008 3:19 AM CST up reply actions

You're right

It is really difficult. I was more celebrating the fact that projectors expect Harden to make that many starts- that would be really good.

by philadelphiacub on Dec 25, 2008 12:41 PM CST up reply actions

20 wouldn't be so good.

That’s only about 60% of the season. 25 would be better. I’m hoping for 30.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 25, 2008 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

The pitchers performances are always projected low.

Bill James has said himself that pitchers are too “up and down” to predict with any certainty what they will do.

by Rick B on Dec 24, 2008 9:32 PM CST reply actions

bill james

is crazy and these predictions are pure crap.

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by cubsluver22 on Dec 24, 2008 9:39 PM CST reply actions

????

by philadelphiacub on Dec 24, 2008 10:09 PM CST up reply actions

I'll echo that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 25, 2008 3:19 AM CST up reply actions

So every pitcher is going to regress next year?

Has this guy not seen the division we’re in? Comparing competing pitching to the power hitters in those games those numbers have be near impossible.

by ak123 on Dec 24, 2008 10:17 PM CST reply actions

My problem

If Harden starts enough games to get 5 losses I would be shocked. I see him getting a loss every 5 or so starts. I feel like him getting 5 losses would be a good projection for the Cubs.

by okiecubbie on Dec 24, 2008 11:45 PM CST reply actions

Wins as a stat

Another thing to consider is how little value can be gained by using the win/loss statistic for pitchers. Pitchers can win games when they pitch poorly and lose them when they pitch well. Wins are interdependent on the pitcher’s team’s defense and his team’s offense as well as his own performance. Wins and losses (or saves for that matter) don’t tell us much about how well a pitcher performs.

I don’t know how these predictions were generated. It could be that they have factored in an expected regression in the Cubs’ offense this year and a decline in defense as players age. Will there be updates available on a Web site somewhere if the Cubs make some trades? Or it all could be WAG, a wild ass guess.

by FrankSereno on Dec 25, 2008 6:21 AM CST reply actions

this was kind of disappointing

to see BIll James projections in the title and then just give us the Wins, probably the least meaningful stat of all his projections

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 25, 2008 8:40 AM CST reply actions

You can find the full Bill James projections on Fangraphs.

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by cwyers on Dec 25, 2008 8:59 PM CST up reply actions

thanks Colin

n/t

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 26, 2008 7:24 AM CST up reply actions

Barring injury ...

I have a hard time seeing Z, Lilly and Dempster combining for 37 wins.

by elgato on Dec 25, 2008 10:04 AM CST reply actions

Wait...

So the Cubs are only playing 145 games next year? News to me!

by kanderber on Dec 25, 2008 7:31 PM CST reply actions

Right

What is the sabermetric reason for that? What happened to the other 17 games? Record for pitchers not currently on the roster? If they go 12-5 ill take that prediction.

by JJDiesel21 on Dec 25, 2008 8:23 PM CST up reply actions

No decisions.

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by cwyers on Dec 25, 2008 8:58 PM CST up reply actions

Yabbut...

… SOMEONE has to get those decisions!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 26, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions

I wouldn't call it a drastic step back given the makeup of this team.

The team is getting older and they haven’t done a single thing YET to significantly improve the 2009 roster. Re-signing guys like Dempster is fine but we shouldn’t expect such a move to bring more wins as it is far more likely that Dempster does not as well in 2009.

Right now I’d project the Cubs to 85-90 wins for 2009. But could easily see them winning fewer than 85 and think it pretty unrealistic to win more than 90. The current roster is banking on Lee & Fukudome to get on track. I expect the Cubs to add another bat and hopefully that addition will give them a greater shot at 90 Ws.

by DudeVf11 on Dec 25, 2008 7:58 PM CST reply actions

Cubs look to me like a 88-90 win team on paper

Keep in mind lots of fine years turned in by Cubbies in 2008. Plus the Cubs were blessed with remarkably few injuries except for the time Alfonso Soriano was on the shelf and Kerry Wood’s one month of “blister recovery.”

by BLou on Dec 25, 2008 11:20 PM CST reply actions

Good point about injuries

[for anyone to answer] Who would you expect to see time on the DL in 2009?

From history, one might expect Soriano to miss a few weeks, Lee to miss several games, Ramirez to miss a couple weeks, etc. But the bigger issue is probably the pitchers.

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by cubzfan on Dec 26, 2008 8:39 AM CST up reply actions

And history isn't always the best guide.

Maybe Soriano will be completely healthy this year. Before his two Cub seasons, he had played 156 or more games in five of the six previous years (and 145 in the other).

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 26, 2008 8:42 AM CST up reply actions