The Case For Adam Dunn
by Al Yellon on Dec 27, 2008 9:00 AM CST
in The Next 100 Years
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PrintThe last time I posted a "case for", last May promoting the idea that the Cubs should reacquire Greg Maddux, I was vilified by some for suggesting it. After the fact, though, wouldn't you say that Maddux would have looked real good going in to Game 1 of the Division Series throwing strikes to the Dodgers after Ryan Dempster couldn't?
Anyway, that isn't the point of this post. The point is to put forth my case for the Cubs signing Adam Dunn as a free agent. Now, you might say -- hey, Al's been against this before. And you'd be right. I've worried about his defense, which is bad in left field, and at least in theory, the Cubs would be signing him to play right field. But since Lou is obsessed with acquiring a left-handed power hitter, and since Dunn is one of the best LH power hitters in the game, the increased offense would be enough that we could live with the ugly defense. Think of Dunn as a nicer, left-handed Dave Kingman with more walks.
Further, there is at least the possibility that Lou could think outside the box enough to convince Alfonso Soriano to move from left field to right. Granted that Sori's defense in left field isn't much better than Dunn's, bunny hop and all, but Soriano definitely has the arm for right field. If the Cubs are going to have two mediocre-to-bad defensive players in the corner spots, at least put the guy with the best arm where it's needed most. Putting Dunn in LF and Soriano in RF would mean that the plan to platoon Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson in CF would be put in place. That would make a good combined offensive CF, plus at least give good defense in the middle -- those guys might get tired chasing down all the balls Soriano and Dunn can't get to. Finally, the signing of Joey Gathright at least gives the Cubs someone they can slide in for defensive purposes -- or put in as a pinch runner for Dunn after he walks in the late innings, and then remain in the game.
photo via i.a.cnn.net
Dunn hits a lot of home runs-- oddly, exactly 40 each of the last four years -- but a large portion of his offensive value comes from all the walks he draws. To give you an example of this value, consider this: since 1912, when Jimmy Sheckard drew 122 free passes (he had set the club record with 147 the year before), a Cub hitter has walked 100 or more times in a season only five times:
Hack Wilson, 105 in 1930 Richie Ashburn, 116 in 1960 Gary Matthews, 103 in 1984 Sammy Sosa, 116 in 2001 Sammy Sosa, 103 in 2002
That's it. Five times in 96 seasons. Adam Dunn has accomplished that feat six times in the last seven seasons, and he would have done it a seventh time (in 2003) had he not missed 46 games due to injury.
Last year, Fukudome helped turn the Cubs on to the idea that walking is good. They nearly set a club record for walks -- the 636 drawn was only 14 short of the record set in 1975 -- can you imagine how many they'd draw with Dunn in the lineup in between Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez (if that's the way Lou decided to go)? The Cubs led the NL in runs scored, by a wide margin, with 855 in 2008. They'd score well over 900 runs with Dunn in the lineup.
Plus, he's healthy -- something another possibility for this position, Milton Bradley, is not. Dunn, as noted, missed 46 games in 2003 -- but apart from that has played at least 152 games in every season since he became a fulltime regular in 2002. I'd expect him to continue that as a Cub, at least if he could stay away from crashing into the bricks and ivy on the outfield walls. A bit of training to become accustomed to that would probably solve that issue.
Dunn is a career .286/.419/.664 hitter in Wrigley Field -- yes, I know that's against Cubs pitching, and a lot of that is off of Carlos Zambrano, who he owns (7 HR in 56 AB). Those numbers are in 217 lifetime AB; he's hit 23 homers in Wrigley in 60 career games. He also has a .546 lifetime SLG in day games, as opposed to .508 in night games, and has 100 day-game homers in 1270 AB, as opposed to 178 in 2601 career night-game AB, hinting that the larger number of day games at Wrigley Field would be a boon to him.
Dunn has, in recent weeks, apparently told friends he'd love to play for the Cubs. Maybe that'd allow Jim Hendry to sign him to a somewhat below-market contract -- something along the lines of three years for $30 million, or four for $40 million. Fangraphs has his value a bit higher, but maybe the Cubs can negotiate a better deal, presuming the Cubs are his first choice.
If the Cubs are going to go the free agent route for that left-handed hitting OF that Lou craves, this seems the best option, since the other choices (Bradley, Bobby Abreu) are either older, injured or both. They'd probably have to clear Jason Marquis' contract, or part of it, to give some payroll room. For Dunn, I think it would be worth it. He's 29 years old, still in his peak years, and after Derrek Lee's deal expires following the 2010 season, Dunn could be moved to first base (or even spell Lee at times for the next two years). And if you need yet another reason to like Dunn, check out this rant that our old buddy Marty Brennaman recently had about him. (Marty really ought to retire -- even his own son told him to calm down during that tirade.)
Do it, Jim Hendry. Let all of us have the Big Donkey slamming homers onto Sheffield wearing the blue pinstripes.
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Preaching to the choir
Wouldnt his numbers against the Cubs pitching be even more impressive? Since he’s been in the league, hes gone against Z, Woody, Maddux, Prior, Clement, Lilly, Dempster,Marmol….we’ve had some good pitchers here since Dunn became a Cincy regular.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
+1
Let’s hope Hendry is working on this!
by Championship Vinyl on Dec 27, 2008 9:26 AM CST reply actions
I was on the same path as you Al
At first I wasn’t thrilled about signing any of the “big bat” free agent lefties. But, IF Lou is determined to sign one, Dunn would be my choice.
I still think there is a left handed bat out there on the trading block that would be a better fit for our team.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
Amen Brother Al
The rub on Dunn is his defense — it may not be gold glove calibre — but he certainly makes up for defensive deficiencies by offensive production at the plate. There has not been a lot of talk in the media about this happening (at least, compared to other proposed moves), so it has been my hope that Jim is quietly working on it … we’ll wait and see.
Ya gotta love a team with a shortstop named TheRiot ...
Dunn
Go get it DUNN Jim
Also leading to belief this could happen is there have been rumors of Hendry having interest in him on and off over the years.
Barbara V. October 14, 1941 - December 19, 2008. A great lady who was a friend to all and like a second mom to her children's friends (she was my best friend's mom)
by puckishcubsfan on Dec 27, 2008 10:10 AM CST reply actions
Marty Brennaman and Dusty Baker
I bet they have some great baseball strategy discussions
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
hahaha
After the fact, though, wouldn’t you say that Maddux would have looked real good going in to Game 1 of the Division Series throwing strikes to the Dodgers after Ryan Dempster couldn’t?
Do you seriously believe that if Greg Maddux was on the Cubs last season, he would started Game One of the NLDS?!?!?!
Seriously?
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Umm...
after Ryan Dempster couldn’t?
Pretty sure Al meant that Maddux would have relieved Dempster.
by John Q Freejazz on Dec 27, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
if that is the case...
… it wouldn’t have mattered.
Marshall came in, and pitched quite well.
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by big_lowitzki on Dec 27, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
My point was...
… that maybe Maddux would have been in there BEFORE Dempster got himself into enough trouble with all the walks.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
That's exactly what I meant.
The problem is, Lou doesn’t seem to like using long relievers that way.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
then...
… what was sean marshall doing in that game?
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by big_lowitzki on Dec 27, 2008 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
Actually, Ted Lilly should have been in that game...
… specifically, pitching to Ethier.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Wouldn't have mattered if they'd had Maddux or not
And I don’t think they missed anything by not getting him back. Harden was a better choice.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 27, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
and...
That would make a good combined offensive CF,
It would? Kosuke and Reed platooning would make a good combined offensive CF?
Kosuke would get the majority of the at-bats, assuming a straight platoon….
Bringing moderation to a place I don't moderate.
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Yes, it would, because...
… Johnson hits lefties very well. I assume that Fukudome hitting (mostly) against just RHP would also improve his hitting game.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
yuck
A $12 million platoon outfielder. I know it’s probably the best course, but geez.
yuck it up all you want
Its what we’re stuck with
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I'm all for somebody getting picked up
because I’m getting tired of waiting. If this was such a priority you would think something would have been done or rumored about more. No news is boring, I just hope something gets Dunn (or done).
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
I'd cringe everytime I see a ball hit to LF
but I could live with his offense. He’s a perfect bat that we need..
BCB Works Miracles: It saved my English grade!
The second coming of Dave Kingman...
brutal defensively but an offensive machine.
I’m all in favor of it though. At this point, I’ll take any move on Hendry’s part that could convince me that next year won’t be a repeat of ’08.
Hey, the Red Sox
made it to the World Series with Manny in left field, why not us with Dunn? If we have the pitching and enough offense, Dunn’s liabilities would be negated a little. Is Dunn that much worse than Sori or about the same? I just worry that Sori may get worse in RF.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
I think Fonzie has the tools to play RF
His arm foremost amongst them, he’s a better athlete than any other corner OF option we have, so the only concern, as w/ all potential Soriano moves, is his psyche.
We’ll see, hopefully Jimbo will get some things rolling after New Years
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Dunn may be a good idea.... but
There is no way I want Soriano in right field… It is one of the toughest rightfields in the majors to play. The sun is brutal during day games. Soriano is doing an ok job in left… I know he is not a great leftfielder. … but moving him to right would be to risky
LouPrules
I agree
Sori loses balls in left which typically is not considered a sun field, depending on the park we are playing in. If he starts dropping flies in right, I wonder how much that will wreck his confidence and aggressiveness going after balls? He has shown his fear of going back to the wall already, a move to right may ruin him.
I brought this up last season, when I am at the Cubs HoHoKam games, I am there typically just as the players are taking the field for warmups. For a guy that has fielding issues, he gets no extra practice at all. If I was a Cubs coach, I would get him out early and hit 50 -75 fly balls to him before every practice to get him the practice he needs. He needs confidence going back on the ball and taking better routes. He has a strong arm, and that has saved some runs, but his overall fielding skills need work.
I know this is a Dunn post, and for the most part, I agree to try and get him. I am not sold on Abreu or Bradley at all. I think Dunn would be a fan favorite if we picked him up.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
Four years, maybe
but I think $10M/year is wishful thinking when Soriano, who was older when he signed two years ago, makes an average of $17M/year.
"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano
That Fangraphs link has him at about 4/45...
… which is a little over $11m a year, so I may not be that far off.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well
if that’s the same site that valued Theriot’s 2008 performance at $14.3 million, then I guess I don’t understand how they come up with those numbers.
"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano
No!!!!
and no some more. I’ve spent too much time as a Cubs fan watching outfielders run around with no idea where the ball is. Can you imagine Dunn trying to play left field on one of those days when the wind is doing its around the flagpole thing?
Where is Mick Kelleher when we need him?
by 3744nsheffield on Dec 27, 2008 11:17 AM CST reply actions
Can you imagine homers pounding onto Sheffield...
… when, as you put it, “the wind is doing its around the flagpole thing”?
I think that’d make up for the bad defense.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
+1
Whoever said you can't mix business with pleasure never owned a PuttPutt course---Andy Bernard
by carmen_fanzone on Dec 27, 2008 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Look at the numbers
FanGraphs gives Dunn’s 2008 season in Arizona a -10 in the field. Augie Ojeda had a higher win value. And that doesn’t take into account what an adventure Soriano will be in right field.
Where is Mick Kelleher when we need him?
by 3744nsheffield on Dec 27, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions
And what's his + number at bat?
Probably offsets the difference.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Some more thoughts to your idea.
Defensively someone please tell me the ratio of ball hit to left field and those hit to right field. IIRC there are more balls hit to the left side as well as there are more balls driven to left field than right, but I could be mistaken but then the question is where do you put your worst OF’er and where will the worst OF’er incur the most defensive damage.
To me placing Soriano in RF is the natural place where his strength (arm) provides the most benefit. That said I could see a rotisserie OF during the game where once the Cubs have a lead and their bullpen is now engaged in holding or saving the game the Cubs employ their defensive team.
In some ways we see that with Fukudome, RJohnson and Gathwright (or Pie). The thing is if it is Adam ’Kingman reincarnate" Dunn than they Cubs cannot stop there where they need a highly capable lead off hitter from the IF be it at SS (the FA) or 2B (the constant trade rumor) so the Cubs can develop the game personality to score early and often. This of course coincides with the top notch starting pitching and then strong bullpen.
If Dunn and a true lead off hitter it then offers Piniella a different lineup. For the sake of argument I will say that finally the O’s relent and trade us Roberts for Pie, DeRosa and Cedeno.
The lineup then is
Roberts
DLee
Ramirez
Dunn
Soriano
Soto
Fukudome
Theriot
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
The biggest problem in RF is...
… the sun. Bunny hopping isn’t going to help that.
Also, can we give up the Roberts thing? It’s not happening.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
should have put in the sarcasm....when I said constant rumor
the problem I see are two things.
Dunn or anyone except Ichiro only solves one part of the problem as Piniella see’s it. The left handed bat is important, minimum three in the lineup but four or five better of course——but the other problem is Soriano at the top of the lineup.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Agree
with the Roberts talk, The O’s are a mess and will continue to be so. They should trade Roberts but they are to dumb to do so.
Dunn in right, Cubs have the lead into the eighth, Dome to right, Johnson in center, works for me.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
Adam Dunn is not Dave Kingman reincarnate
The walks are a crucial difference and shouldn’t be ignored. Dunn routinely walks 100 times a year, Kingman was lucky to draw 50.
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
Well, I meant in terms of his defense.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I was responding to Ivy Walls
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
OK he is a little improved than Kingman in the walks department
but his defense and swinging for the fences is the reincarnate stuff.
But Dunn could be effective although I am not in love with him. He is a prototype DH
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Yabbut no one, and I mean NO ONE struck out like Kong did
Anyone who remembers a Dave Kingman strike out can testify to seeing one of the most surreal things to be seen in a major league batter’s box.
In comparison, Adam Dunn is Barishnikov in “Swan Lake.”
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
Make it happen Hendry...
I’m on board for this, and have been since I heard about Dunn’s interest in playing for the Cubs. The ballhawks would be quite busy out there on Sheffield this summer.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 27, 2008 12:24 PM CST reply actions
Would our own ballhawk switch streets?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
In a heartbeat!
Listen, the only reason you see my fat ass on Waveland the whole time is exactly that – my fat ass! I’ll be the first to admit I’ve gotten old, fat, and lazy. I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve gone over to Sheffield in the last few years, and most of them were for Barry (I was about 10 feet away from getting the one that did make it out, but ballhawk Dave ended up with it).
If Jimbo signs Dunn, I won’t guarantee I’ll get in shape, but let’s just say I will be sufficiently motivated to drop a few pounds so I can do the Waveland/Sheffield/Waveland shuffle for Lee/Dunn/Ramirez without keeling over wheezing up a storm every time.
Hey, if I was willing to go over to Sheffield for the likes of Corey, Burnitz, Grace, and yes, even One-Dog, I’ll damn sure find a way to waddle over to Sheffield for the likes of Dunn!
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I doubt that the Cubs go after him but I'd love to have the "problem" of finding a spot
for him on the field. I thought the Cubs missed their chance with the reds, i.e., before the GM was replaced I thought maybe the Cubs could do a straight up trade for Soriano and pay some of Soriano’s salary for 2008 maybe even 2009. I think Baker would have pushed hard for that deal to get done. The Cubs would still be in search of their RF but they would have gotten younger and gotten LHB,which is apparently something they value highly.
Has D. Lee ever played the O? Any chance he can be a tolerable RF for a season?
based on what we know about the Cubs financial situation...
…I assume a signing like this wouldn’t be possible without unloading Marquis first, correct?
New sig currently under construction
Couldn't agree more Al
I think if there is one player we could acquire via free agency that helps the Cubs most, it would be Adam Dunn.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
Defense
I hate the idea of signing Dunn for the outfield. His defensive issues are being very understated in this post.
Agreed
Al just dismisses the defensive problems, saying that Dunn’s bat will make up for them, but doesn’t back that statement up at all.
When you look at Dunn as an overall player, even in left his value is hurt tremendously by his defense. Same with Soriano. You move either of those guys to right in Wrigley and it would be disasterous.
Just look at Dunn in left – he hits 40 home runs a year, and OBP’s .400, but his WARP3 gets drug down every season by his awful defense. Despite his offensive prowess he usually floats around 4 or 5 wins.
I just can’t believe after watching the 2007 Cubs that anyone is entertaining the notion of putting bad defensive players out in right again. Watching guys like Floyd, Murton, and Ward bumble around out there week after week just wasn’t pleasant.
And yet...
… the 2007 Cubs made the playoffs.
Give me a better solution, and don’t say “Milton Bradley”.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Milton Bradley
…is by far the best option. I know you don’t like him personally, but he’s the only legitimate right fielder who’s available via free agency.
Bobby Abreu is roughly as valuable as Dunn (6-7 wins above replacement, EQA around .300), and doesn’t kill you quite as badly in right as Dunn or Soriano would.
I love Dunn as a player but he’s a square peg to our round hole.
I don't consider a guy...
… who played 3/4 of his games at DH last year a “legitimate” right fielder.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
But a hopping converted second baseman and a lumbering DH-to-be are?
C’mon Al, you can do better than that. You’re too blinded by your personal biases against Bradley to see that he’s the only option, and too infatuated with Dunn’s incredible offensive prowess to see just how awful he’d be in Wrigley’s tough outfield.
You said it yourself.
“Incredible offensive prowess”.
We can live with the defense. We have already in one OF position, for two years.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Why don't we just sign Manny to play center then
After all his offense will make up for any defensive shortcomings.
I think you’re overestimating the marginal gain of Dunn’s offense vs his defense. This is a guy who hits 40 home runs a year, OBP’s .400 season after season, and yet is only ever worth around 5 wins per year because his defense costs him just that much value.
Playing him in RF would only make that marginal benefit smaller.
I'd rather have Adam Dunn than Manny
Manny, like Milton Bradley, is a difficult personality. Manny is 36, while Dunn turned 29 last month. Manny wants to play for the highest bidder; Dunn wants to play for the Cubs.
by Championship Vinyl on Dec 28, 2008 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
I was being sarcastic anyway.
I was suggesting that if incredible offense makes up for defensive shortcomings we should just trot Manny out in CF, along with Dunn in RF.
I understand the sarcasm.
I still believe that Dunn’s offense makes up for any defensive shortcomings.
IF the Cubs are going the free agent route, he’s the best choice.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Let me put it this way
Fukudome was worth about 4.5 wins above replacement last year in right field.
Dunn has been worth between 4.5 and 6.5 wins each season for the last three years, mostly in left. Given his poor defense, it’s a sure bet that he will be worth fewer wins in right field than in left.
That means the marginal gain from replacing Fukudome with Dunn is very likely nil, and could possibly end up negative.
At least with Abreu you’re looking at a marginal gain of a win or so. With Dunn you’re spending a lot of money for no clear gain, because you’re infatuated with one aspect of his game.
Two aspects, actually, that would be quite useful.
Patience and power. When have the Cubs EVER had such a combination?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I'm not arguing that
I love Dunn. He’s an awesome player. He has a unique approach to hitting that is fascinating to watch, almost as entertaining as the giant home runs he would launch onto Sheffield. If we needed a first baseman, DH, or left fielder I would be jumping around yelling for us to sign him too.
But that’s not what we need. We need a right fielder. You keep saying his offense would make up for his bad defense, but you haven’t really backed that point up.
I suggested moving Soriano to RF and playing Dunn in LF.
That would minimize the effects. There isn’t really another good free-agent RF out there, and don’t say “Bradley”, because he’s not.
Given that Hendry may have the purse strings tied, he may be out there looking to trade for a less-expensive player, like Jeremy Hermida.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
That doesn't really solve the problem, it just moves it around
It’s going to be a similar marginal loss on defense – Dunn is significantly worse than Soriano in left (20-30 runs worse per season), and Soriano less valuable in right than left (let’s just guess it would be a similar drop-off between Fukudome and Soriano in right, though I suspect it would be worse).
So assuming my guess is fair, you’ve made your defense 40-60 runs worse by doing this. That’s a significantly worse defense. Almost Brewers-esque.
Besides, don’t you remember how lost he was in center? He hasn’t shown any ability to play anywhere else in the outfield.
The simple fact is if you put two bad outfielders in the outfield, it hurts your team more than having one bad outfielder in the outfield. It doesn’t make a huge difference where you put them.
Bobby Abreu is at least a better option. Putting him in right will only cost you 10-15 runs per season, and he’s roughly as valuable as Dunn in terms of wins above replacement (and adding him won’t diminish Soriano’s value). The marginal gain is greater.
Soriano's never been tried in RF.
Abreu might not be a bad option… but he’s going to cost you more than Dunn, and he’s five years older.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
There's a reason for that
He hasn’t given any indication he has the talent to move to a very difficult right field.
He was beyond awful in center. He’s not very good in left. It’s a stretch at best to think he’d even be serviceable playing in the most difficult right field in the big leagues.
Most importantly, his struggles in center seemed to affect his hitting in 07. You run the risk of doing that again.
Why do you think Abreu will cost more than Dunn? I’d expect their costs to be similar, given their values and age difference.
The Fangraphs numbers are fine...
… but will they reflect the reality of the market?
I do agree that waiting it out will reduce the prices on all the remaining free agents. I’d make Abreu a second choice to Dunn, since he does have a bit of speed and can play the field, though not as well as he used to.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well at least he has a sense of humor
I remember the game when he had a couple of misplayed balls and the bleacher fans were giving
him mock applause so he took a bow and smiled.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Dunn
Dunn is the kind of player and guy we’d embrace from day 1.
I think he knows that and may be a reason he’d love playing here.
Barbara V. October 14, 1941 - December 19, 2008. A great lady who was a friend to all and like a second mom to her children's friends (she was my best friend's mom)
by puckishcubsfan on Dec 28, 2008 3:12 AM CST up reply actions
If they don't get Dunn
I’d suggest sticking with Fukudome in right, Johnson platooning with Gathright, Pie, or any other no-hit, good defense CF, and letting it ride til the trading deadline.
Take that money, and if you can’t deal Marquis and get Peavy or Lowe, sign Brian Fuentes for the bullpen. His value as a lefty specialist would be huge to this team!
Demp and Rich: proof that people that live in igloos and say "eh" can contibute!
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Dec 27, 2008 1:32 PM CST reply actions
I agree
I’d rather give Fukudome and Pie another chance than sign Bradley or Abreu. Dunn has been consistent, healthy and fits the teams needs. He has one downside, defensive short comings. Bradley and Abreu have too many other things working against them that I don’t want to see them on this team. I trust Jim to find something midseason if needed.
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
I like the idea of Bradley or Dunn
But, there seems to be alot of “maybe if’s” in this story.
Maybe if Dunn likes the Cubs he’s sign a below market deal.
Maybe if we trade Marquis
We shall see what happens
walking is contagious
noticed that once Fukudome was patient, the rest of the team was patient hence the second most walks since 1975 fact included in the article. If Adam Dunn were to be with the Cubs walking as much as he does, those RBI’s will add up quickly.
"Oh baby!" - Len Casper
by #1 iowan cubs fan on Dec 27, 2008 2:06 PM CST reply actions
Dunn is also a bit of a backup plan for Soriano
Soriano missed 15 days in April, over a month between June and July in ’08 and he missed some time in August of ’07.
There’s no reason to sign Dunn, Bradley or anyone else just in case Soriano hits the DL, but if Soriano gets injured our OF would be something like Johnson/Pie/Fukudome/Gathright in LF & CF with DeRosa in RF and Fontenot at 2B?! Yikes!
I’m much more comfortable with Soriano in LF Johnson/Fukudome/Pie in CF, and Dunn in RF.
Have metioned this myself...
can’t rely on Soriano remaining healthy and Dunn can give Lee some days off. He may get 110-120 games in RF..
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!
Count me as being against signing Dunn.
First, I don’t think that Dunn will sign for less than $12M per season.
Second, there are enough third-tier pitchers around that I don’t think Marquis can be traded without eating half his salary. At that point, it would be more prudent to keep him. That means that the Cubs won’t have any payroll room for Dunn unless they trade DeRo or Harden — probably DeRo — and that they would probably end up with an LBR/Onedec platoon at 2B rather than TNO or O-Dog.
Third, Dunn’s Value Wins (FanGraphs) the last three years have been 2.0, 3.1, and 1.9. For comparison purposes, DeRo’s last three years have been 3.1, 3.1, and 4.3. Even LBR was a 3.1 last year. I just don’t think that Dunn is worth $12M given that valuation. For that, the Cubs might as well just use DeRo in RF and LBR at 2B, though I’m against moving DeRo to the OF permanently.
Fourth, I’d rather have a root canal than watch Dunn play defense. Dunn makes Kingman look like a gold glove OF. I’d honestly rather put Ballhawk in RF, or even Al.
If the Cubs can’t trade for Kubel (or someone similar), I’d rather let Pie play and try to pick someone up (if needed) at the deadline.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
We didn't win the division and choke in the playoffs in consecutive years with defense....
just sayn’
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 27, 2008 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Our entire infield making an error surely contributed to Zambrano's loss. Just saying.
I think defense matters.
well IF defense is more critical
so perhaps instead of worrying about what Dunn might or might not do in RF, why not upgrade at SS, the most important defensive position in the game?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
yes...it contributed to exatcly one loss...
the offense (lack thereof) contributed to the other 2.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 27, 2008 6:50 PM CST up reply actions
Well if you believe Dunn and his desire to play here
Than he said he would accept a “fair deal”, the benchmark for that this offseason is probably Ibanez’s deal (at this point anyway) so 4/44 or something there abouts.
Thats a false comparison in Value Wins; DeRosas past 2 years are unlike anything his has ever done before, and at his age, its unlikely he will come close to repeating those, whereas Dunn has shown remarkable consistency and is several years younger than DeRosa and should have the ability to improve upon those numbers.
LBR wasnt a full time player, so you cant really compare his stats to Dunns or DeRosas.
Since when is Jason Kubel a gold glover anyway?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Let's take a look at DeRo's last three seasons...
2006: .296/.357/.456/.813, OPS+ = 108
2007: .293/.371/.420/.791, OPS+ = 102
2008: .285/.376/.481/.857, OPS+ = 118
That’s pretty consistent production over a three year period. Is he getting older? Yes, so am I. Is it “unlikely he will come close to repeating those” numbers? Declines in production due to age normally happen gradually (barring injury), so it is reasonable to assume that he can put up at least a 102 OPS+ next season.
Has Dunn put up consistently better OPS’s than DeRo? Absolutely. Has Dunn put up consistently miserable defensive numbers? Absolutely.
You are correct that comparing LBR’s numbers to Dunn’s and DeRo’s is comparing apples and oranges.
Finally, if we are considering DeRo as an OF alternative to Dunn, I will leave you with this:
In 2006, DeRo started 63 games in the OF for Texas, which represents his most consistent action in the OF. (I think that 1 or 2 were in LF, the rest in RF.) Dewan’s +/- system scored DeRo at +12 in RF, good for sixth place in MLB. (Randy Winn led with +22; Ichiro was +17 in a lot more games.) Can Dunn hit enough better than DeRo to negate that defensive advantage?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Did you see Kingman play?
I did. He was horrendous. Dunn’s bad, but not that bad.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
AAAAAAAAAAmen
all the grace of a head with it’s chicken cut off .. but it was a pleasure to see him launch a Cubs HR into orbit ..
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
Kingman
I think my grandmother was a better LFer in our family softball games we had back then than Kingman and she was over 70. A spry over 70 mind you but over 70.
Barbara V. October 14, 1941 - December 19, 2008. A great lady who was a friend to all and like a second mom to her children's friends (she was my best friend's mom)
by puckishcubsfan on Dec 28, 2008 3:14 AM CST up reply actions
The Cubs can't trade for Kubel
The Twins have said they will not deal him.
Can't have an outfield of Soriano and Dunn
You just can’t. For that reason and the fact that Dunn shall command a lucrative deal I continue to believe he is not on the Cub radarscope.
I really do believe Hendry is singularly focused on Milton Bradley. If he can’t get Bradley then I’m not sure what he does.
For what reason?
We can’t have an outfield of Soriono and Dunn why? Because you said so. Well I say we can, so there
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
Cant' Harden play RF?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 27, 2008 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
SUN plus WIND plus SORIANO spells DISASTER
On good days Soriano has a hard time in left field….I can’t even think of him in right .. Well I do remember JACQUE JONES in the outfield May of 06…Routine fly ball a little sun ball dropped cubs lose …….We don’t need another instant replay of that …..
JJ also brought very little to the plate
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Hopefully Hendry AND Crane Kenney...
…read BCB!! Just in case though Al, perhaps you could email your post to both of them! You’ve sold me on him.
"I never drink water because of the disgusting things fish do in it" -W.C. Fields
Maybe I'll do just that.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Are Big Donkeys natural predators of Goats?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I'm living in anticipation of hearing your alternatives....
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 27, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
with the current free-agent market?
Yes. They are the best we can do. We need a left-handed hitting corner outfielder. That really limits the options.
What's wrong with keeping who we have?
I think the Cubs did all right last year with the roster they played. Why pick up anyone else? We won 97 games with those guys. We should be able to repeat that total.
The problem with the Cubs is winning in the playoffs. The brass has to figure out how to get that done.
Strangely, Dusty Baker managed to get the Cubs almost to glory in ’03. Maybe someone should ask him how he did that?
He did it with luck...
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 27, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
The 1st thing they should do,
come playoff time, is skip priest in the dugout throwing holy water around. That was beyond rediculous and not a good way to keep the players’ minds off the whole curse thing.
"I never drink water because of the disgusting things fish do in it" -W.C. Fields
No joke..
Did we ever find out who came up with that idea?
Did the BoSox sprinkle holy water everywhere? That water was a deterrent..
A 97 win team shouldn’t need holy water..
by MattHaggard on Dec 27, 2008 10:11 PM CST up reply actions
I would think Kenney..
…would have HAD to sign off on that one. Who’s idea it was? You’re guess is as good as mine — but I guarantee they regret it now — it made the organization look childish and it gave all our newspaper and TV friends, who LOVE talking curses, plenty to talk about.
"I never drink water because of the disgusting things fish do in it" -W.C. Fields
I thought I read somewhere it was an Orthodox priest
who knew someone in the Cubs front office .. who I would hope that by now, is doing something else that has nothing to do with that National League team in Chicago.
It looked absolutely superstitious and stupid. As a Protestant minister with a Roman Catholic upbringing, I have no big issue with such rituals. But as part of a ball game? I draw the line there ..
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
by cubnational on Dec 28, 2008 12:15 AM CST up reply actions
I also heard that Lou was very unhappy with this...
… after he had spent the entire season trying to keep the team’s thoughts away from the 100-year thing. It was a really stupid thing to do.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
AAAAAAAAAAAAAMEN
as many of my preacher’s tribe might say
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
by cubnational on Dec 28, 2008 12:13 AM CST up reply actions
Holy water
While it was silly it hardly was the reason they did not win the world series.
Barbara V. October 14, 1941 - December 19, 2008. A great lady who was a friend to all and like a second mom to her children's friends (she was my best friend's mom)
by puckishcubsfan on Dec 28, 2008 3:15 AM CST up reply actions
You can never stand pat on a team from year to year.
Times and situations change. Players get a year older. Injuries happen.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Dunn will benefit from leaving Cinci
…where the team OBP has dropped since Dusty got there, and it could have effected Dunn’s numbers too, eventually, especially with Marty in the booth spouting the same anti-OBP nonsense. Rads OBP in 2006 was .336. In 2007 it was .335. Dusty takes over and in 2008 it was .321.
Al floated this earlier, maybe we trade DLee, as much of a class individual as he is, before his value goes down, and put Dunn at 1B? Not necessarily advocating, just questioning. Of course, DLee has saved many errors, especially for Ramirez, and Dunn isn’t DLee at first either.
Lee isnt going anywhere
I think he was referring to Dunn replacing Lee at first once Lee’s deal is up after 2010
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I was, but...
… obviously, defensively Dunn would hurt the Cubs less at 1B than in the outfield.
If Lee would waive his NTC and it could bring the Cubs a useful part or two in return, do it — especially because it would clear $13m off the payroll each of the next 2 years.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I wonder if he would stay if it became evident the team wanted him gone?
Not that we’re at that state, and probably never would be, but in general I wonder how sensitive these multi-million dollar athletes are
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Dunn has ALREADY left Cincinnati.
He played the last two months with the Diamondbacks.
OBP with the Reds in 2008: .373
OBP with the Dbacks in 2008: .417
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I gotta wonder...
…how much of Dunn’s power numbers are a result of playing at Great American Ballpark? Isn’t that park known as a power hitters haven?
"I never drink water because of the disgusting things fish do in it" -W.C. Fields
Have you ever seen Dunn's HRs?....he doesn't hit cheap ones.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 27, 2008 10:57 PM CST up reply actions
Good post
Should backload his deal for when Lee & Lilly leave after 2010 and Fukudome leaves in 2011…
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!
Fukudome
Am I the only one who wouldn’t be surprised if Fukudome has a good year in 09?
Barbara V. October 14, 1941 - December 19, 2008. A great lady who was a friend to all and like a second mom to her children's friends (she was my best friend's mom)
I'm hoping you're right.
It would solve a lot of problems.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well ...
it’s just not something that I think anyone wants to count on.
(raises hand)
I would love to count on Fukudome having a good season.
Of course, we need to have a plan B if he doesn’t…. but spring training is still some time off.
Bleed Cubbie Blue: Like Drāno for your internet tubes.
No, you're not...
Lot’s of things are happening for the Domer.
He now has that first full season under his belt. He saw the good, the bad and the Cub. He’s now had time to spend with his new-born. He learned some more English. He learned what humbles him about MLB pitchers. He learned what it’ll take to sometimes travel 1,500-2,500 miles between series instead of 150-200. He learned there’s more than 1 timezone where he now plays.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up a .285/.375/.485 offencive line to compliment his already strong defence.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Dec 29, 2008 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
If you're right...
… many problems could be solved.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
dunn
cubs are his 1st choice.much better choice than a problem child like bradley.theres a reason you play on 6 teams in 8 yrs.dunn is obviously the best left handed hitter available.such an obvious choice you know it wont happen.if lou pushed for it might happen.
I would like either player but Bradley is wound too tight for the
…Chicago media and the fans. He wouldn’t be able to take the criticism here.
If you worry about Bradley for any reason, make it these 2...
1-History of Injuries: he’s mark prior with a bat, except Prior had one truly exceptional season, whereas Bradley has not
2-Hes a DH, plain and simple.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I dont think thats exceptional
Considering he did what he did in less than full time duty, and only had 22 HRs and 77 RBIs, I wouldnt call that exceptional. And I know theres a growing segment of the population that feels RBIs are worthless, but call me crazy in expecting a cleanup hitter in the leagues most potent offense to have more than 77 RBI.
He also struck out 112 times to his 133 hits.
The bottom line is he is an injury prone DH and has less place in the NL than Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
He had the highest EQA in the AL
3rd in the bigs, behind just Pujols and Jones. If you’re just looking at HR and RBI you’re missing the bigger picture of his value as a player.
Who cares how much he struck out? That’s an especially ironic criticism given the topic of this diary.
I'd rather have Dunn than an injury prone DH.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Lou apparently doesn't
because all the options being discussed are a defensive downgrade from Fukudome.
by Championship Vinyl on Dec 28, 2008 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
And EQA means exactly what?
you cant throw out all these esoteric stats w/o justifying them
Dunn may strike out a lot, but he walks a ton and hits the ball a long, long way and is younger and less injury prone.
How are people not getting this?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Dude we all know who Adam Dunn is
I don’t think you do. His defense is a huge minus. The notion that he or Soriano could play right field in the bigs is far-fetched at best.
I think if you really wanted to know what EQA was you would use this wonderful new site they have on the internet. Sorry it went over your head, it’s a pretty well known and frequently used metric of overall offensive production.
Easy champ
youre using that stat like its an everyday thing, which its not….Adam Dunns offense will, at the very least, balance out his flaws in the field.
The guy is made out of glass, or is there now metric to measure that?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
*bradley*
Is made out of glass is what I meant of course, so I dont care what is EQA or his EPA is, he cant stay healthy
If he was a pitcher coming off a career year with his history of injuries and his name was A.J. Bradley, would everyone be so adamant to sign him?
Sinking 30-40M in this guy will be a total loss, regardless of how impressive his modern metrics are
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
well compared to the cost
And what we could get instead, someone like Dunn/Abreu, who can stay healthy.
Obviously Bradley is a talented hitter, i didnt mean to give the impression I didnt think that, but he just has never had the ability to play an entire season, let alone in the OF
So for someone with his injury history who will command north of 10M, Id find a better option; what good is Bradleys bat if its only there for 100 games, and even thats a stretch
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I was referring to Al's
post earlier in the year about what moves the Cubs should/might make and he briefly mentioned the Giants could be interested in DLee. Again, I’m not advocating moving DLee, just putting that out there as 1B is really the only position Dunn can play that wouldn’t be a total disaster. I live in OH and get to see him play LF quite a bit. It’s scary at times.
I also was aware he had left the Reds, but made that statement more as a comment on the effect Dusty’s arrival has had on their team OBP, and he has escaped that same fate. I probably didn’t get that across real well. The opposite is true for the Cubs. No Dusty season had a higher OBP than .328 and as low as .319, but it went into the 330’s with Lou’s first year and was .359 for 2008. There’s much more to baseball than that one stat, but if you’re not getting a hit, a walk saves one of those prescious 27 outs.
On another positive for Dunn, compared to Bradley, Dunn has consistenly put up his numbers, and Bradley, who certainly has talent, has overall been a disappointment, and his personal issues haven’t helped either.
Oh, and since Brennaman was mentioned
who has become a caricature, the Reds radio announcers, Chris Welch and George Grande, also have nothing but contempt for Cubs fans. The last series played in Cincinnati last year, these guys made comments about Cub fans that I was shocked any announcer would make about anyone while on air. I wish I had taken notes to share them here, but it’s really a shame. The Reds used to be a classy organization. I don’t remember anything like this in the 70’s, and while not a Reds fan, I did pay attention to them because I lived in Thousand Oaks, CA and went to school with Sparky’s daughter, and Kurt Stillwell was 5 years behind me at Thousand Oaks High, so there was a little connection there.
One of the Brennaman links I saw...
… pointed out that if you were a kid growing up now in Cincy, with him as the lead broadcaster, always being so negative and snarky, why would you become a baseball fan? It’d turn me off even though he’s the guy for the home team.
That was the genius of Jack Brickhouse and Vince Lloyd. They got you to love the game even when the home team sucked.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Amen
Not having grown up in IL, I finally got a chance to meet Mr. Brickhouse in AZ at Ho Ho Kam somewhere between 1984 and 1989. I have a pic of him in the stands there that I took with his permission, with a smile and watching the field, as if he was a fan first, then a professional broadcaster. He probably was. Nice man.
Adam Dunn is not going to happen
This thing is taking on a life of its own. The money isn’t there and a place to hide him defensively isn’t there. Cubs cannot possibly be considering an outfield that has Alfonso Soriano and Adam Dunn playing at the same time. There is NO amount of offense that can overcome the defensive nightmare of an outfield that includes those two on the corners.
Hardly a pipe dream
He has said he wants to come here and he’s a free agent, so its not based on Cubs fans convoluted and delusional trading fantasies. Hes a left handed, power hitter w/ on base skills who has a track record in the NL central
If Bradley is smart, he’ll sign in the AL to prolong his career and get another payday, so to me it seems like a real possibility….the decision is Hendry’s of course, so we’ll see if he feels the same as a lot of us.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
So, if someone walks a lot, striking out a lot isn't an issue?
First of all, a lot of peole like Adam Dunn because he’s a sabermatician’s dream player: High OBP, low BA. I wonder if he also had a high BA if he wouldn’t be quite so popular. (Never have I seen people that worship not hitting the ball so much, but that’s another point entirely.)
It’s not just that Adam Dunn strikes out a lot; it’s that he strikes out at a breathtaking rate. Fifth in the NL in Ks in 2008, 3rd in 2007, 1st in 2006, 1st in 2005, 1st in 2004, 12th in his injury-shortened 2003 season and 2nd in 2002, his first full season. In fact, from 2002-08, Dunn struck out an astounding 1,182 times — far more than anyone else in the NL. He ranks 24th in all-time strikeouts in the NL, despite playing only eight seasons.
I’m am certainly not Marty Brennaman by any means; I fall somewhere between the traditional and sabermetric camps. I know the walk is valuable, and that OBP is probably a better measure of a hitter than BA. But praising Adam Dunn for the discipline it takes to walk as much as he does is about like praising someone who’s morbidly obese for enjoying good food; Dunn just watches a lot of pitches go by, and piles up walks because of it. Couldn’t the Cubs find somebody who can walk a lot without striking out a lot?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Why would a sabermatician want someone with a low BA?
I don’t see how having a low BA makes him a sabermetric dream player.
Just because BA is a bad stat doesn’t mean lower is better.
Outs are, more or less, outs. Dunn makes fewer of them than most people. That he does so by striking out really doesn’t affect his value much.
I was referring more to proving their point (on the low BA comment)
I was being a bit snarky — mostly because I think both sides of the traditional/sabermetrics debate are a bit full of themselves and tend to think that only the stats they like are good, when in fact just looking at sabermetric stats without traditional ones is just as worthless IMO as looking at traditional stats without sabermetric ones. I don’t think BA is a “bad stat” — I think it’s an incomplete stat. Sometimes, you need a hit more than you need a walk. (I can have a full discussion of my problems with both sabermetrics and traditional stats if you want to, but this probably isn’t the right thread to hijack.)
Fact of the matter is, sometimes a strikeout is markedly worse than another kind of out. We can talk about probabilities and likelihoods, etc., but for me the strikeout is utterly worthless. It doesn’t even give you a chance at getting a “lucky” hit. A strikeout is a strikeout is a strikeout — barring the truly bizarre dropped third strike, it never turns into anything else.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Actually, strikeouts...
… can be BETTER than other kinds of outs, in certain cases. Would you rather have a guy who hits into 27 double plays a year?
Because we already have one of those.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Which is why I still think he has a lingering wrist issue
He tries and tries again to pull the ball in far too many situations. It seems like an overcomp because of the right wrist; like he thinks it’s still too weak.
On Dunn, I’d like to see what he can do with Rami following him in the lineup. I would hope Lou puts him at #4 right between D-Lee and Rami. That’d be a helluva 3-4-5.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Dec 29, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
But you can sometimes score on a DBP
It’s awful hard to score on a K
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
And how often do you think that happens?
Hint: not often enough for it to really be worth worrying about.
He passes on a lot of hittable pitches b/c he like to utilize his power
So Im sure that contributes to some of his strike outs. Buf if he strikes out as much as he does and still manages an above average OBP, which his career .381 mark is, then I dont see the problem with his K’s and low BA…..if the latter was higher and the former smaller, then he’d be an even better player b/c his OBP would be higher, but they have a name for that: Pujols
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Again, see some of the above response
But my point is not that he strikes out a lot — if he did that and had a high OBP, okay. It’s that he strikes out at a rate not seen by any other similarly expensive player currently in the majors, and maybe not any marquee player in history. Does that make his OBP more amazing in some way? I suppose. But don’t praise him for his plate discipline; he walks just because he doesn’t swing much — not because he lays off balls.
That said, I don’t think the difference here is between Pujols and Dunn. There have got to be some left-handed options out there that come with fewer Ks and a similar OBP, or at least close enough for less money. I’ll admit I’ve been thinking too much about college football the last couple of weeks to come up with any of the top of my head, but I can do some research if necessary.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Im not sure what youre saying, sorry
“But my point is not that he strikes out a lot — if he did that and had a high OBP, okay”
He does do exactly that…..
but he offers more than OBP, he’s a virtual lock for 40 HRs, and in a superior lineup, he’d have more RBI opportunities. There isnt another bat, left or right handed, on the market (other than manny) who offers the kind of power he does, as well has his 381 career OBP…..and Dunn probably has more HR power than Ramirez.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
What I meant
What I was trying to say is that saying Dunn strikes out a lot is a massive understatement. He strikes out at something approaching an historic rate. If he was your run-of-the-mill strike-out-a-lot player who had a high OBP, I could take it. But he’s turned striking out into an art form.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Again though, what difference does it make?
He makes fewer outs than most players. Who cares how he makes the outs he does, so long as he only does so 6 out of 10 times he comes to the plate???
There’s this notion that a batted out may turn into something else, but the probabilities involved in that are very easy to look at (for example, fielding percentage was .984 for the MLB last season, which means that an error happens at best it happens 1 out of every 100 batted outs for a player, keeping in mind that many of those errors weren’t simply outs that resulted in a runner reaching base).
Dunn makes outs at such a lower rate than other players, that your point is pretty moot.
You also said that what he does doesn’t count as plate discipline which is silly – the reason he takes pitches is because he doesn’t swing at ones he can’t do anything with. One thing this leads to is an incredible low rate of GIDP – he has hit into only 27 double plays in the last 3 seasons combined, versus Lee’s 27 last season alone.
Not crazy about him either
For one thing, his OPS+ has declined for two straight seasons.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
fielding
while Dunn is one of the worst fielding outfielders I have ever seen (I actually used to get excited to see flyballs go to him because the chances of not getting an out are higher), he still fields over 98% of what comes to him. While he doesn’t get to as many balls as most being the big donkey, I could live with him in left supposing Soriano could not digress in right field. Dunn’s offense between lee and ramirez would mean a lot of runs plus having more guys on base when ramirez and soto come to the plate (granted Dunn is slower than everyone).
by portlandcubfan on Dec 29, 2008 12:01 AM CST reply actions
The more I think of this...
…the more I like it. He’s the power guy they need from the left side. I like the 40-HR numbers and all the walks but defence scares me. The CF’ers are gonna get a daily workout. I’d really like to see him at #4 right between D-Lee and Rami. Rami would benefit even more at #5 than being #4 IMHO.
Now, could Fonzie be talked into going to right? That arm is really made for RF but the sun will really reek havoc on an already mediocre fielder.
The only major downside to this on a lineup perspective is it doesn’t fix the leadoff spot. Guess that’d have to be a separate move.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
I predict with 100% certainty that Adam Dunn will not be a Cub
I think in two or three weeks Jim Hendry will either have signed Milton Bradley, or he will have moved onto what he views as a suitable “Plan B.” The ONLY way he would have interest in Adam Dunn is if he somehow managed to move Alfonso Soriano. Which of course is a pipe dream.
But far be it for me to get in the way of thousands of posts about Adam Dunn until sometime in January when Dunn signs with another team or the Cubs sign Milton Bradley or acquire somebody else.
Story out that the Dodgers are talking to Adam Dunn
He actually makes a lot of sense for them. They can plop him in left field alongside Matt Kemp in center field and Andre Either in right field. Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones can be in charge of getting the rest of the guys hotdogs and Cokes.
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