My Cubs Top Prospects, 15-35

Please read the intro paragraph in the other post.  As noted, I still make changes to things, as I did with the 15-35 right now while putting it up. 

Looking over my top 50, one of my regrets may be not getting Tony Campana's speed in there.  I wonder if my disappointment with so many "Sam Fuld-ish" players (loose comparison) played a factor in this.  The Sam Fuld type offensive players of the world need an elite skill set to have a good chance ... and even then it's iffy.  But Campana has said speed.  I at least should have put him in my others section.

Some thoughts as I finish this - I love the athletes we take.  I hadn't given much thought to it, but Wilken does focus on athletes, two-way players, or guys with athletic lineage, it seems, particularly for pitchers.  Their athletic ability may bode well for health.

I wonder if I am unduly harsh on some lower level arms and have maybe tilted the back end of the top 50 more towards readiness than I really intended.  A guy like Yohan Gonzalez or Alberto Cabrera may be more deserving of mentions.

I'll always somewhat defend my list, but as I always note, just a fan and there are definitely aspects of this list that makes me rethink things.

15.  Dae-Eun Rhee*, SP.  If you want excitement, see Rhee.  If you want disappointment, see Rhee.  A good fast, curve, split-change (seen reports suggesting he throws a variant, throws one or other) let him to post a 3.08 FIP in 40.3 innings at age 19.  Sweet.  Surgery ... not so sweet.  If he plays in 2009, I'd expect it to be in Peoria.  If he waits until 2010, I'd guess Peoria.  Comes with an asterisk, because if healthy, his grade is higher (assuming he maintained his performance).  That said, he's still awfully young.

16.  Kevin Hart, RP.  Still qualifies, and as such, gets bonus points for readiness.  Not much that needs to be said.  After struggling early, he found a groove.  If you buy him as a spot starter or a late inning arm, then you slide him up.  I think he's a solid middle reliever/long man type, though, so I can't justify putting him higher.

17.  Brandon Guyer, LF/CF.  The tail off in August caused him to lose some steam.  He's probably not, as of now, as good as he was in July, but probably better than he was in the other months, but he can get better.  Somewhat like Colvin in that, he can probably play CF, but may be more of a natural LF.  The Cubs may give him a shot to stick at CF, which is a worthy experiment IMO, and he has some power that this system really lacks.  A very toolsy kid, he should start at Daytona and will be worth watching.

18.  Casey Coleman. SP.  Joe Coleman's son had a good start to his Cub career.  He throws a solid fastball (I think both 2 and 4 seamers, from the low-mid 90's), coupled with a solid change, and an improving curveball.  He should get better now that he is a full-time pitcher.  I imagine he'll start the year in Daytona, and like Jay Jackson, could get bumped up to Tennessee at some point if he does well.  Very intriguing guy to watch.

19.  Junior Lake, 2nd/3rd.  Talented kid with a sweet stroke, he's probably a more skilled athlete than Starlin Castro based on the reports, but has to develop more consistency.  The chances of him sticking at shortstop are still slim, IMO, but he would make a fine 2nd base prospect.  He might even have the power to shift over to the hot corner.  I think he's headed the XST/Boise path, but maybe he pops into Peoria.

20.  Aaron Shafer, SP.  I hope he's not Bobby Brownlie.  I hope he gets his stuff back.  He got off to a solid start in Boise, but if his fastball isn't in the 90's, he won't make it far.  He's got a good breaking ball and a solid changeup, so if that fastball is there, he jumps up in intrigue.  Likely starts 2009 in Peoria, although he may get to Daytona soon. 

21.  Larry Suarez, SP.  Our big international signing a couple moons ago, Suarez rebounded from surgery and showed some signs of his potential, at times, flashing in the mid-90's while showing some good movement on his fastball.  Limited innings, so take it with a grain of salt, but one of the few guys in the system with TOR potential.  I'm thinking he's headed to the XST/Boise path.

22.  Chris Carpenter, SP.  Our third round pick got off to a slow start, with his control all over the place.  That said, he still flashes a mid-90's fastball with a solid slider.  He needs improvement on his changeup to rise up as a starting candidate, and overall, just needs more work.  Considering his past, it'll be worth keeping an eye on his health.  I imagine we'll keep him in the rotation, and I hope he can stick, because he would TOR potential.

23.  Tony Thomas, 2nd.  After being horribly disappointed, I took a step back.  For a guy who went from the hitter friendly NWL to the FSL, for a guy who jumped a level and was a somewhat raw college guy to begin with, his performance wasn't horrible.  It's just ... his bat didn't improve, and there are still questions on his glove.  Doesn't feel like a leadoff option as of now, so his value is hurt a bit by that.  He'll likely start 2009 in Tennessee.

24. Casey Lambert, LOOGY.  With a low 90's fastball and a plus curve, he's Rich Hill ... in the bullpen.  Lambert looks to be a solid LOOGY possibility that could perhaps reach the majors at some point in 2009.

25.  Rocky Roquet, RP.  Should age hurt him when he is a pen candidate?  That is, here's a guy who throws a hard fastball and a solid slider that is coming off a solid season and finished the year with improved control.  His arsenal is similar to Cashner's, or perhaps he could get compared to Kyle Farnsworth.  Likely to start in AAA, perhaps as their closer, with a shot in the bigs if the need arises.

26.  Nate Spears, UTIL.  It seems like he's been around forever, and yes, he's been around for awhile as a HS draftee for the Orioles.  That said, he'll be in AAA and won't turn 24 until May.  Nate's coming off a quality season in AA.  He can handle short enough that it is possible to project him as a possible utility option.  His main problem is that we have a lot of middle infielders in the bigs and we have 2nd base options behind him.

27.  Alessandro Maestri, P.  The first Italian pitcher to go this far was excellent in Daytona as a starter this year and got a very deserving promotion to AA.  There, he got hurt.  He offers a low 90's fastball coupled with a plus slider that was rated the best in the Cubs system last year, although Cashner may edge him out now.  His change showed improvement.  That said, I still think his future is more as a pen arm, but as always, starters have more value so I would work him as long as I can as a starter and see if he can improve.  I mean, if the change becomes decent or better, this is an intriguing starting caliber talent (particularly considering the number of pen prospects in our system).  It's probably AA with a shot at AAA if all goes well.

28.  James Russell, P.  I wonder if I am overreacting a bit on Russell.  After being decent in Daytona, he floundered in Tennessee.  Looking back at his Daytona performance, he certainly wasn't that good.  In saying all this, Russell was pushed hard.  Here's a guy who still has a good low 90's fastball and a plus change.  There were some that thought Jeff's boy was a pen arm coming out of college, and with those two pitches, he probably could still be a good pen arm.  That said, with Lambert and Papelbon, and a host of lefties in the lower levels, seeing if his curve can develop is worth the effort.  I know some esteemed folks have Russell higher, but I just wonder if he's a pen arm.  I'd guess he starts in Daytona again if he's utilized as a starter.

29.  Justin Bristow, SP.  Definitely didn't get off to a hot start in our organization.  That said, he's got a good arsenal with a low 90's fastball and he also uses a curve, cutter, and a change, I believe.  He's another former 2-way guy, and I wonder if a focus on pitching will help him improve a lot next year.  I'm thinking Peoria is his starting point.

30.  Jeremy Papelbon, RP.  Jon's little brother settled back down after a May hiccup, and was real solid all year long, primarily as a pen arm, but starting some late.  I think I read somewhere that the Cubs were priming him to start in 2009, perhaps for Tennessee, but I could be wrong.  His arsenal certianly suggests pen, as he doesn't have the fastball velocity (high 80's) to really think he can be more than an end of the rotation guy.  His fastball does have good movement, though, and he has a decent-solid change and slider to go with the fastball, and he throws either a forkball, a splitter, or some sort of fork-split to go with it (I believe he said in an interview that it's basically the same pitch, but it's movement depends on what he does with it each at bat, or something like that).  He was dominant against lefties this year, with a K rate against lefties nearly 2 ahead of what he did against righties.  He was also solid against righties, though.  I find it interesting that the Cubs and Red Sox have shared two sets of brothers (the Papelbon's and the Marshall's).  Actually, Jeremy's future could be somewhat similar to what Sean did for the Cubs out of the pen, as a jack of all trades type of guy, although Jeremy should be a better situational guy.  He may get an outside shot of breaking camp with us, but I imagine he'll start in AA, in whatever role, with a chance at the bigs this year.  Gotta love his willingness to take on whatever role the organization wants him in.

31.  Nate Samson, MI.  I tend to think a bit of Ryan Theriot here.  He tailed off a bit as the season progressed, but Samson and Rosa were the key cogs to the Peoria offense much of the year.  Samson's glove is a big question at short, with some thinking he has a Theriot like shot of sticking there, and others disagreeing.  I think, due to the way the system stacks, he likely has another shot at short next year, probably at Daytona.  There's some more power in there, potentially.  Granted, not much more, but even a little more makes him look a lot more intriguing.

32.  Matt Cerda, C.  The little guy is a tough player, by most accounts, and under Fatheree's tutelage, seems to be adjusting well to catcher.  I will be very intrigued to see if Jody Davis can help the kid somewhat, although as others have noted, to be fair, Jody was an offensive catcher.  He shows pretty good discipline already, which is a nice sign.  He's never going to have that much pop.  XST/Boise seems possible, although I could see XST/Arizona again.

33.  Jeffry Antigua, P.  I may be a little overly high on Antigua.  Young, hard throwing lefty runs a 2-seamer in there in the low 90's.  As he fills out, he could eventually get up the mid-90's, but as with everything for him, it's all projection.  Has to improve his other pitches and become more consistent, but the upside is intriguing enough to me.  XST/Boise is possible, although XST/Arizona can't be ruled out.

34.  Randy Wells, RP.  Maybe the best thing that happened to Randy was that he went to Toronto.  A former catcher, Wells added a nice sinker to his mix.  Now, that sinker didn't improve his home run rate, but Wells looks to be the type of guy that fits in at the end, the 12th arm out of the pen, a guy that gets shuffled up and down, a potential spot starter/long man.  I wonder if I have him a bit high.  AAA or the bigs.

35.  Jake Fox, C/1st/Corner OF.  He is what he is.  He's not a guy who's going to get anywhere with his defense, and he's a free swinger.  He's got pop, though, and he still could be a useful 13th man, the emergency catcher/backup 1st/backup Corner OF/righty bat off the bench guy that may shuffle between the bigs and the minors.  Was a bit unlucky in April, and by the time he looked to be turning things around in May, the Cubs demoted him to Tennessee, where he heated up as the summer progressed.  Could probably flop him with some of the guys in the 36-40 range, but I had to make a decision.  Should be in AAA.