After calming down a bit, here's my (somewhat) clearheaded thoughts.
Quite a lot has taken place within the last twenty-four hours. If everything reported is actually true, the Cubs have traded Jason Marquis and Mark DeRosa and in return received Jose Viscaino and three minor league prospects, and calling them prospects is a bit generous. Here's my take on what has taken place so far:
What I'd like to believe is that these three minor league pitchers will be flipped in a newly structured Jake Peavy deal, but I can't get past the fact that none of those three pitchers are noteworthy. I see no reason why San Diego would have interest in any of them, at least in a deal involving Peavy. Yes, Marquis leaving opens up a hole in the rotation, but just because we have an opening at the back of the rotation doesn't mean we are going to trade for Peavy. A more likely scenario involves a competition between Angel Guzman, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija for that spot, with Marshall being the favorite and Hill being the dark horse. Remember, Hill was our best pitcher just two short seasons ago.
On the other side of the ball, things are a bit muddied as well, particularly the middle infield. I fully expect Ryan Theriot to be our starting shortstop next year, whether I like it or not. At second base, we lost a very, very good player in Mark DeRosa. Lucky for us, we have a pretty good little guy to replace him, at least against right handed pitching. From a statistical standpoint we don't lose much against right handers, which make up the majority of starting pitchers. DeRo hit .265/.367/.475 against righties, while Fontenot hit .302/.393/.518. Let that slash line sink in a bit. Against right handers, we had a little version of Chase Utley hitting for us. Even when you account for the possible regression, there's no reason to be upset about Fontenot getting say, 450-500 AB's at second base. Where the drop off comes is against lefties, against which DeRo posted a .894 OPS while Fontenot posted a .893 OPS. You might look at that and think thats not much of a dropoff, but Mike only had 21 at-bats against southpaws last year, and has a career .683 OPS against 'em, albeit in a minuscule 73 at bats. I'll just assume he's somewhere in-between those two figures, at about .770 or so. Either way, it's not like he's garbage against lefties. Anyhow, he probably won't get those AB's, as those will go to the newly acquired Aaron Miles, who has a career line of .284/.352/.352 line against lefties, which is pretty similar to Ryan Theriot's career line.
From a performance perspective, we don't seem to be losing that much, if anything at all. What this looks like is that Hendry has been told he won't be given any more cash to spend and therefore if he wants a new toy to throw into right field he's going have to get a bit creative, which is what he has done. While he did lose a great guy and clubhouse presence in DeRo, I think the Cubs will get by just fine. What he ended up with is a very solid platoon at second base, a cheaper alternative in the rotation and enough cash to go out and get that left handed hitting right fielder Lou has presumably been crying for since Fukudome went into his tailspin. What hurts is that one would think that Hendry could have gotten more than three no-name prospects for one of our better offensive players, but hey, maybe Hendry's scouts know a little more about those guys than I have given them credit for.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Fuentes
is a Halo now. Just chimin in with my news breaker. Good thoughts though!
Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?
hendry
probably got about all u can get for a 1yr super utility player. not great prospects but 3 descent pitching chances at something is never a bad thing. I really liked dero though.
Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!
What I don't understand about DeRosa is
We got 3 prospects back from him but he surely would be a class A free agent next year right? Would our two picks be more impactful than these 3 prospects?
Hendry must have another trade up his sleeve and I don’t think it’s Peavy. So far he has been an unpredictable GM. Almost nothing he has done has been reported days in advance for the last 2 years. Maybe we need to think outside the box on who else he might be trying to get?
I'm telling you
the idea of these being prospects along with Pie Cedeno, and a major league ready pitcher might net Roberts. We all know leadoff and now second base are holes.
Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?
by Kinky Reggae on Dec 31, 2008 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
Meant to say...isn't all that crazy.
Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?
by Kinky Reggae on Dec 31, 2008 6:09 PM CST up reply actions
The interesting thing here is that
we just traded DeRosa for three young pitchers of no repute; but how much more could Brian Roberts cost in trade than DeRosa? Roberts and DeRosa are both in the last year of contracts. Roberts offers more in speed; but DeRosa offers utility and is cheaper.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Maybe
Perhaps DeRosa has been thought in the clubhouse as not a postseason player?
Yes he hit a HR in ‘08 but tell me if i’m alone in thinking Lou and the front office didn’t forget that horrible double play DeRo hit in ‘07. There’s a reason why Brian Roberts was rumored to come to the Cubs last year.
I really like DeRosa but I think Lou and front office soured on him for some reason. I know its all speculation but perhaps he wasn’t the clubhouse guy we all thought he was?
I don't know if the "souring" (if there even was any)
was anything more than “he’s right-handed” and Lou blamed the off-season disasters on the Cubs being too RH’ed.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
One thing to remember about Fontenot
Lou used his very very well last year. When Fontenot has a hot bat he is the most impactful hitter that day or week no questions asked. But when his bat gets cold, it’s just as bad as anyone else’s cold streak on the team if not worse. I don’t know if he could handle being an every day player.
I think Fontenot is deserving
of a starting nod any day the Cubs face a right hander. Like I said in the post, he has been outstanding against right handers, to the point that he turns into Adam Dunn or Chase Utley against them. I’m not saying that Lou should trot him out there every single day, but seventy five percent of the time shouldn’t be out of the equation.
And for those that are interested in Roberts, the cost, both in players and in money, of acquiring him is disproportionate to the difference between a Miles/Fonty platoon and a Roberts full-time role. The primary difference between what we already have at second base and what we would have with Roberts is probably 25 steals, which isn’t worth the three or four prospects and the sizeable amount of cash it would cost to get BRob.
Fontenot vs. RHP
.298/.379/.473 with 11 HR and 28 doubles in 406 career AB.
That’d work for me.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Fontenot and Bradley in a platoon
Milton won’t be willing to platoon nor would any contract we offer him be worth platooning. I’d rather stay with Fonty despite my post above compared to getting Bradley.
Who's talking about platooning Bradley?
I said Miles, not Milton.
Yea, but you'd also be getting a lead-off hitter with Roberts...
that’s worth something
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 1, 2009 10:50 PM CST up reply actions
Again you all are commenting when the game is a foot without knowing the end
The December winter meetings were revealing as to value and what other clubs need/want. Value (a fan’s value) is different than a team’s (business) value. Fonty is a good player off the bench as an offensive player but not really an interchangeable part like Miles who can play 7 positions in a pinch.
That is what makes RJohnson he can play all OF positions, same for Gathright and why DeRosa was so valuable.
I see the Cubs finding a real SS and then making a bigger deal. I think Peavy is available as is Roberts. Who fits the club is the answer. With a real SS is the platoon at 2B (Miles/Fonty or Miles/Theriot or Fonty/Theriot) a winning combination or is a everyday Roberts at 2B with a platoon at SS with Theriot/PTBNSoon
Is having the best 5 rotation a winning combination—-YES
Is this a WS roster—-not yet.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Some thoughts
1)I think Guzman is destined for the bullpen. Lou loves those power arms coming out of the bullpen. I would like to think that they want him to replace Howry’s role. He has no options so he has to stay with the big club or be traded.
2)I do believe that this is a precursor to a bigger deal since I don’t believe the net savings you have between the Dero and Miles deal is enough to warrent making this move for those prospects. Plus, Marquis was the hard guy to trade…not Dero. If this was a pure salary dump, Jim could have traded Dero at anytime this winter as he does have some signficant value giving his relatively low cost salary, his verstality, and his production. Therefore, Jim could have waited to trade Dero AFTER they signed Bradley or whoever since it would seem relatively safe to assume that they could move Dero without eating any of his salary. In my mind, It is a crazy gamble to risk losing that production hoping that your target free agent signs with you.
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on Dec 31, 2008 10:08 PM CST reply actions
Hill is D-O-N-E
…and was never our best pitcher.
Whoever said you can't mix business with pleasure never owned a PuttPutt course---Andy Bernard
by carmen_fanzone on Dec 31, 2008 10:23 PM CST reply actions
Good, insightful points on your end
You are to be commended.
My final thoughts of 2008?
I simply don’t understand why Mark DeRosa was jettisoned away given the exceptional value he brought to the Cubs. And for what? Three marginal at best prospects from Cleveland. We gained $5 million or so of financial flexiblity for THAT? And Hendry turns around and blows half of the DeRosa cost savings on Aaron Miles of all people?!? When Mike Fontenot is already on the ballclub?!?
Losing Jason Marquis is also a head scratcher. So we save roughly $5 million in 2009 when you factor in the math with Luis Vizcaino. So what. Who replaces Marquis in the rotation?!? Sean Marshall is not going to be the answer. Jeff Spellcheck is not either. And NO, Jake Peavy is NOT coming to the Cubs. I’m not liking the addition of Vizcaino either. They guy is expensive bullpen filler of dubious quality who shall wind up blocking a spot for Angel Guzman and probably takes the torch from Bob Howry as favorite fan whipping boy in 2009.
Milton Bradley is an okay addition. The best addition of all the names supposedely available. Bradley can flat out hit and playing on a healthy knee will be more than adequate in right field. But his addition amplies the sad state of the Cub farm system. Every year it seems we need to dip into free agency for a new and very expensive outfield option (Jock Strap Jones, Hack Soriano, Kosuke). When does it end? When o’ when are one of these “can’t miss” outfield prospects like Corey Patterson and Felix Pie finally going to stop breaking our hearts and come through?!?
Silver lining amid this bizarre and troubling offseason? Well, the National League Central kinda sorta sucks and the other five teams in this division seem stuck in the mud or are going backwards. So it can be argued the Cubs are the king of the dipshits. Does that make you feel great? Thought not.
Happy New Year.
I'm with you on everything,
but whats up with that Jock Strap Jones comment? It’s not that I like Jones, but any of Mike Murphy’s go-to phrases is a no-no in my book.
A good post, dakoose, and rec'd
Here are my questions….
Question One
If Hendry was going to need to cut Marquis and DeRosa to be able to afford Milton Bradley (who should be one of the cheaper LH bats), why did he ever dabble in Jake Peavy negotiations?
Possible Answers
1. Because there is still more money after a Bradley signing.
These are my thoughts after more reflection.
2. Because Jim was willing to look into Peavy, but was never very serious about acquiring him.
3. Because the cover of the Peavy negotiations helped him work trades to make the salary dumps.
Question Two
Are we really so serious about Leftylack that we think Aaron Miles, Joey Gathright, Mike Fontenot, and Paul Bako should play over Mark DeRosa, Henry Blanco, and to a certain extent Ryan Theriot and Reed Johnson?
Possible Answers
1. Yes, Lou has been clear about this and Jim gets his manager what he wants.
2. We’re not done yet, and that list looks a lot different if Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano, or Orlando Hudson is our new 2B.
3. No, Leftylack isn’t driving this so much as the $$$ (see question one).
Question Three
Why was the fifth starter spot opened up?
Possible answers
1. It’s all about the money.
2. Jeff Samardzija.
3. Another pitcher is coming, possibly one as grand as Peavy or as questionable as Garrett Olson.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
All good questions, and I don't think I have any of the answers.
Regarding the first question, it could be that Peavy was really the first priority at the winter meetings. I don’t see any other explanation. Of course, that could all change with some more moves that are sure to come in time, but as of now, I don’t see any other option. By all accounts, Hendry was all over Peavy and it was in Towers’ hands, not his, so it appears that Hendry was serious about acquiring Peavy, and then maybe even Bradley further down the road. After that, things could have changed financially and Hendry may have decided that waiting for the sale of the team is not a good idea and took the initiative of making sure he could at least acquire something, as opposed to potentially nothing.
Good Q&As.
My thoughts on Question One: A combo platter of 2 and 3. I think the Peavy thing fell into Hendry’s lap. He took it as far as he could and, in doing so, learned a lot about what he could get for Marquis and DeRo. Now maybe the Peavy deal is back on but, now that the hot stove rush of Wednesday has subsided, I’m starting lean toward the DeRo deal being more of a salary dump to get Bradley. I hope I’m wrong.
My thoughts on Question Two: I’m thinking maybe it’s a combo platter of 1 and 3. Lou does seem obsessed with lefties – or, more specifically, attaining the absolutely perfect lefty-right balance (actual production be damned) – and wants to get as many LHH as he can into the lineup (or at least the dugout). Meanwhile, money is tight.
My lone thought on Question Three: It’s answer No. 1.
Yes, yes ... winter is indeed a pond upon which all of us must skate, braving frostbite and runny noses in the hopes that our cars will start and we shan't embarass ourselves slipping on a patch of black ice. Spring is more a quagmire of cold mud and slush, and fall is a pile of fallen leaves that may or may not hide a pile of doggy doo-doo. But summer, ah summer is an oasis of endless green that disappears all too quickly beneath our feet as we rush through its warm, glorious bliss.

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