And What Would YOU Like For Christmas?

Robinson Cano

Girardi apparently was upset with him after showing up out of shape last year, and the Yankees need pitching. So … why not trade Lilly (former Yankee) and Marquis for Cano? I believe Lilly has a limited NTC, but I’m not sure. Or maybe one of the two plus Fontenot? I apologize if I’m undervaluing Cano.

Cano has three years left on a $28 million deal, he hits left handed and he seems like a decent fit in the No. 5 hole.

Let’s say Lilly and Marquis could get it done. The Cubs would then free up about $10 million, allowing for the Peavy trade.

What say you all on this?

Would you rather the Cubs put basically the same team out on the field that they have the last two years only to again lose in the first round or see them trade away a DLee, Marquis, Soriano to build a younger, speedier more versatile team?

and would be willing to trade Zambrano (after getting he-who-shall-not-be-named) to do so.

…not that either club would do this, buy it’s my Christmas

the cubs go hard after ichro.. Give the farm, give them anything they want. I think he puts the cubs over the hump. Gives them everything they need

Call Jim Bowden and see what he would give you for Sori?
Call up The pads and work a three way deal that would send Dlee, Pie, Vitters and others to the Pads and O’s, bringing back Adrian Gonzales and Peavey. Dlee would go to the O’s as part of this deal.

on October 1st back

I miss that feeling

We’ve done nothing to go in one direction or the other.

We haven’t improved (subtracting Wood, adding Gregg)

We haven’t made a step towards building for the future around some of these big contracts (trading away Ceda, throwing away the chance at 4 draft picks by not offering arb to Howry or Wood). We painted ourselves in a corner with the Felix Pie situation by not giving him a full time opportunity last season and having him now out of options.

More than anything I just want an organizational philosophy that is consistent and adhered to. As long as I can remember being a Cubs fan we haven’t had one. The organization has always been run from the bottom-up rather than the top down. There hasn’t been a strong owner placing an emphasis on directing resources into the best areas (scouting, player development, staffing, etc), instead its been funneled into FA contracts for mid-level aging players trying to constantly sell a quick fix.

in terms of i am expecting this. Just for fun.

Trades:

I am increasingly leaning towards the Angels not being able to resign Tex. This doesn’t mean that they will be on the market for a first baseman, as they do have Kendry Morales and Brandon Wood looking for spots. That said, it’s not impossible, so

1. Derrek Lee for Michael Anton, Macier Izturis, and Trevor Bell.

Again, this is just for fun, although there seems to be some effort by Hendry on seriously investigating Peavy. So,

2a. Felix Pie and Michael Wuertz for Ian Kennedy. Yankees get a CF option and pen help. Kennedy was overhyped, but is still a decent mid-end of the rotation projection that is close to ready. I think this is, on the surface, too much for Kennedy, but young pitching can have surprising costs, and to be honest, I’d be fine clearing Wuertz’s salary off if it’s necessary.

2b. Ian Kennedy, Josh Vitters, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, and Kevin Hart for Jake Peavy. I’m not against trading Vitters, it just has to make sense. I’d be okay with this. Would it be enough? Dunno.

3. Jason Marquis and 3 or 4 million for Billy Buckner. The Diamondbacks have been mentioned, so why not? We cut around 5-6 million off the list, they get their end of the rotation starter, while we get a guy to stretch out and stash in AAA.

FA:

Rafael Furcal. No, this likely won’t happen in real life unless we jump in late, but hey, this isn’t reality. Looks like it’ll take 4 years to net Furcal.

Raul Ibanez: Lefty bat, at a better position than RF.

Joe Beimel – Don’t see this happening in real life either, although I do expect us to sign a pen arm.

C – Soto/Blanco. Personally, I’d save a couple million and let Blanco go, but he’s likely to return.
1st – Raul Ibanez. He should, in terms of AAV for 2009, save us a couple million and he isn’t as big a defensive liability at first.
2nd – Ryan Theriot
SS – Rafael Furcal. Our big ticket signing fills a leadoff void.
3rd – Aramis Ramirez.
RF – Mark DeRosa
CF – Kosuke Fukudome*
LF – Alfonso Soriano
Bench: Mike Fontenot
Bench: Micah Hoffpauir
Bench: Reed Johnson
Bench: Macier Izturis

I don’t really want to stick DeRosa fulltime in RF, but it’s not as if he’s that much worse defensively than some of the names being tossed around.

Lineup:

1. Furcal
2. Theriot
3. Ramirez
4. Ibanez
5. Soriano
6. Soto
7. DeRosa
8. Fukudome/Johnson

SP: Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, Dempster
CL: Carlos Marmol
BP: Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija, Chad Gaudin, Angel Guzman, Joe Beimel, and Neal Cotts

I do think we will sign one more pen arm, and probably a lefty. If we got with 1 lefty, I’d probably put Randy Wells in there.

I think this is doable under the payroll requirements.

Again … just for fun. I do not expect any of this to happen. Anyhow, I’ll try and think of other options. Eh … don’t like the outlook of that team, but I spent the time, so might as well post it. Don’t like that pen, but well, don’t expect any huge additions to reshape that pen’s feel for me.

and sign C.C. Sabathia. We would have the best staff in baseball and 2 out of every five games we would have hitters 1 through 9. It will never happen but we are talking about Christmas and/or Hannukah gifts.

excellent health, and no stints on the Disabled List for Cub players, coaches, and fans here at BCB.

Okay, while most of us guessed a payroll in the 140-145 million range, this Sullivan article story was the first time in the media that I saw that listed, at least, from what I recall this offseason.

Anyhow, we’ve gone down this road before, but just playing around with some numbers. With our current 36 man roster (and the buyout of Henry Blanco) of

Pitchers: Z, Harden, Lilly, Dempster, Marquis, Samardzija, Gregg, Wuertz, Gaudin, Cotts, R. Hill, Marmol, Guzman, Hart, Wells, Mateo, Marshall, Berg, Atkins, Ascaino

Position players: Soto, Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soriano, Johnson, K. Hill, Cedeno, Fontenot, Pie, Snyder, Hoffpauir, Fuld, Fox

I come to around, after estimating some numbers, around 135-137 million. For those that have been wondering why the talk has been heavier on Ibanez so far than guys like Dunn, that might be your explanation (Dunn’s might land around 10-12 million, which may be too rich for us, whereas Ibanez might come in a little under.)

After looking at the numbers

a) I’ve said all offseason I’m fine with Hank White going, and after looking at the numbers again, I think he needs to go unless he takes the minimum. Just doesn’t work for our budget. He’s been great, and I’ll be fine if we somehow bring him back, but if you gotta save some cash, this is one place to go. It’s the backup catcher.

b) Wuertz needs to go. Not because he’s been bad, but because that million plus could become useful. Same with Cotts. That’s probably 2 million or so in savings.

c) I’ve got a hard time seeing us make more than 2 additions. Even a Peavy and a bat addition stretches us to the edges of our budget, assuming that a team will eat most of Marquis’ contract in a trade. That leaves me wondering about the pen. I still think we need one more arm, probably a lefty, and I’m not sure our system has the answers in place.

Okay, so

i) We need to dump Marquis. It needs to be cost-cutting as the priority, the return package as a secondary factor. Sure, an average starter that eats innings and is on an affordable contract should net a decent return, and if it is possible, great. If this ends up being some PTBNL, as long as the opposing team eats the majority of the deal, fine by me.

ii) A positive, realistic scenario in dumping Marquis probably has us eating around 3 million. That’s a positive scenario, IMO (meaning we cut around 6-7 million off). It could be worse, but I think that’s doable. If we get rid of Marquis/Wuertz/Cotts off the table, that’s potentially , that gives us some more flexibility. Even then, we’re looking at 125-128 million with the remaining 33. The question is … do we need to make more cuts, and where? We run into a roadblock, because the only assets that seem semi-realistic to move that could provide savings would be the valuable Mark DeRosa and Derrek Lee, and Lee won’t be easy to move with his NTC.

Looking at some scenarios, assuming the three pitching cuts I’ve mentioned

1. The Peavy addition – Say we complete a Peavy deal. That leaves us perhaps 10 million. Probably enough to land a key bat.

2. The Other Veteran Pitcher Route – Say Randy Johnson. Let’s estimate Johnson at 8 million for now. Just a rough guess. That extra savings would be perhaps enough to land a LOOGY.

3. The internal option – Use Marshall/Gaudin/Atkins whomever in the 5th role. We’ll live through the first half of the year. That gives us the flexibility to nab our preferred bat if it comes down to money, while perhaps landing either a 2nd bat or a pen arm, if not both, and/or saving us some payroll flexibility for midseason.

Of course, there is the “Trade Lee” scenarios that are being thrown out (and I threw a ‘for fun’ one out above). I’m not a “we have to deal Lee” guy, but rather a “i’m open to any ideas guy”. Clearing DeRosa’s 5.5 needs to be pondered, as much as I love DeRosa. The idea, in terms of chatter, this offseason has been that adding one bat will change the makeup of the lineup. Well, it could, a bit, but if clearing DeRosa’s 5.5 allows us to get middle of the order lefty and top of the order guy, that would really reshape the team.

Anyhow, just some late at night thoughts.

Based on the speculated 140-145 million budget, Furcal’s shrinking market, and Wittenmeyer’s suggestion that Hendry is being more creative than before, along with my aforementioned comments, with full recognition that if this happens, then I shoud’ve gone to Vegas as the complexities behind making everything happen exactly as desired in an open market would be nearly impossible to coordinate. I took some rough guesses on salary increases, so I may end up being off, but the following team I came up comes close to the 140-145 range given by Sullivan. Actually, I think, when you factor in the smaller pieces not included, we’d pass 145, but barely (maybe around 147 or 148. If that’s a big issue, then chop Rivera off and slide Brad Snyder in there, I guess.

Trades:

1a. Felix Pie and Ryan Theriot for Garrett Olson and George Sherrill

Did Sherrill overachieve to start, or did his injury hamper his 2nd half effectiveness? It’s probably somewhere in the middle, but he’d be a solid LOOGY option. Baltimore still lacks a shortstop, and while Theriot is, at best, an average fielder (and that’s being nice)

a) The FO knows him
b) He’s better than what they have
c) There’s still speculation on Roberts being dealt. If Roberts is dealt, they could use Theriot at 2nd. We’ll know real soon about Roberts and whether or not he will be moved, as an answer on that should come at the winter meetings, or soon thereafter.

If we have to add a fringe 3rd chip, fine.

1b. Jake Peavy for Josh Vitters, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart and
Garrett Olson.

I’m not saying I love it, but I’d be okay with it. I’m not against dealing Vitters – I’m against haphazardly trading. If it makes sense for us, and making sense means from a total organizational perspective, then yes, we pull the trigger. The above 2 part, 3 team deal boils down to, for us,

Felix Pie, Ryan Theriot, Josh Vitters, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, and Kevin Hart for George Sherrill and Jake Peavy. I think I’m okay with that.

2. Derrek Lee for Macier Izturis, Michael Anton, and Mason Tobin

It looks like the chances of Texeira not resigning in Anaheim is growing. They do have internal options, with potential sluggers in Kendry Morales and Brandon Wood long waiting for an opportunity. That said, they may explore a trade for a veteran, and Lee makes sense, from a contract and cost perspective. I don’t think they’d sell the farm for him, and this is a very iffy package built more on potential, but Lee does have some control with his NTC so I factored that in.

3. Jason Marquis and 4 million for Doug Slaten and Bryan Augenstein

The Diamondbacks have been rumored with Marquis, along with other clubs like the Royals, Rockies, Reds, and Mets. Short of it is, I’d try to target a LOOGY in the deal, along with perhaps another average piece. Augenstein is a middle-back of the rotation projection that might start in AA next year, adding some depth to our upper levels. The 4 mil is based of Wittenmeyer’s comments.

4. Move Wuertz/Cotts to clear salary.

Signings

1. Rafael Furcal – Estimate 4 years/44 million
2. Adam Dunn – Estimate 3 years/36 million, but slightly backloaded
3. Juan Rivera – Estimate 1 year, 2 million

C: Geovany Soto
1st: Adam Dunn
2nd: Mike Fontenot
SS: Rafael Furcal
3rd: Aramis Ramirez
RF: Mark DeRosa
CF: Kosuke Fukudome
LF: Alfonso Soriano
Bench: Koyie Hill, Micah Hoffpauir, Reed Johnson, Macier Izturis, Juan Rivera
SP: Zambrano, Peavy, Harden, Lilly, Dempster
BP: Marmol, Gregg, Samardzija, Guzman, Wells, Slaten, Sherrill

Lineup:

1. Furcal
2. Fontenot
3. Ramirez
4. Dunn
5. Soriano
6. Soto
7. Fukudome
8. DeRosa (I would rather not go Furcal/Fontenot, but I don’t see DeRosa hitting at the top, when Reed Johnson is in CF, perhaps he goes up there … and I don’t see us putting Fukudome in the 8 spot, so I slid DeRosa down)

I think this addresses

a) top of the order
b) Lefty in the middle
c) The pen (adding Sherrill to the mix)
d) Oh, there’s that Peavy guy.

Power hitting switch hitter? (IF Lee is traded-which is really unfathomable)

The entire Cub’s system +$250,000,000 for the entire Tampa system.

Long term problems solved, lots of financial flexibility, and we get Carl Crawford to boot!

Takers for Marquis and Soriano.

For Theriot to repeat his ‘08 numbers while channeling Ozzie Smith in the field. (I’d say a new SS, but there doesn’t appear to be anyone available I like.)

Wood to be resigned, never go to the DL again, and retire a Cub.

For Harden to take the ball every five days.

For lack of better ideas, Brad Hawpe or a healthy Jeremy Hermida. (If I get the first item on the list, let’s just take both.)

For Kosuke to hit like everyday’s opening day.
 
For Rich Hill to come back and pitch with the kind of success he teased us with at times. (I miss the crazy sucker.)

For Pie to be traded for somebody useful, and to flourish in his new home.

For a farm system that churns out quality ML talent instead of trade/cannon fodder.

For an end to 7th inning stretch guest conductors.

HOF calls for Santo and Dawson.

And that guy from San Diego wouldn’t hurt my feelings, either.