Pie on Rob Neyers top 10 CF list.

by JB 23 on Feb 1, 2008 8:15 PM CST Comment 36 comments

Neyer has been ranking his candidates of the best players by position for the next 5 years. (the player needs to be under 30) Our friend Felix has made his list of center fielders.

This requires "insider" access; I have posted a link for those who have access and the list from his blog below.

Rob Neyer CF's for the next 5 years

Is he worthy?

B.J. Upton
Curtis Granderson
Grady Sizemore
Hunter Pence
Chris Young
Carlos Beltran
Melky Cabrera
Felix Pie
Josh Hamilton
Jay Bruce

Perhaps I've been too aggressive here with the youngest players. I do feel good about Upton, but the others -- Young, Cabrera, Pie -- really haven't been good yet in the majors. Hamilton's obviously a wild card, and perhaps there should be a place on this list for Wells. Meanwhile, there are a bunch of hot center fielders coming up, and so I've strayed from convention and filled in that last slot myself. It just seems to me that when you've got a player who's the consensus No. 1 prospect, he's your guy. Better, though, over the next five years than Wells and Rowand?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I think

that Pie is in pretty good company...I go to school in Missouri so I saw a lot of Colby Rasmus last year- the kid has got some skills. He is the one that I might have thrown in, although I do agree with Neyer's rationale for Bruce being there. Make us proud Felix!!!

Brian McRae's 5 O'Clock Shadow

by PurpleLineToWrigley on Feb 1, 2008 8:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Granderson, Sizemore, and Pence should be

above Upton. Nothing against B.J., but they're all better power prospects than he is, and can do whatever he can do with the glove and on the basepaths, though Upton may be, in point of fact, faster than any of them.

I'm not sure Pie belongs on here, but a lot of the young guys, perhaps with Upton excepted, on this list are question marks.

Pie can't hit ML LHP's.

Chris Young makes a lot of outs.

Josh Hamilton needs to prove he can do it for a full year at that level.

Melky Cabrera needs to prove he can keep the weight off.

Jay Bruce needs to do it at this level.

I don't think Pie is any less of a question mark than these guys, so, in that sense, yes he belongs on the list.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 1, 2008 8:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

B.J. Upton is slugging .500 in the majors...

...at age 22. That's plenty of power.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 1, 2008 8:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay.

Here's the numbers, per Baseball-Reference:

Pence: .588 (only one season)

Granderson: .493

Sizemore: .488

Upton: .442 (only one full season, in which he did slug . 508)

But if you look at their lines, the four of them are strikingly similar players statistically. No major drop-offs in OPS, OPS+, they seem to strikeout at a similar rate...eerie.

Do you think he should be rated above Sizemore, Granderson and Pence, even if Neyers is projecting for the next five years?

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 1, 2008 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's the "age 22" part

that gets Upton to #1 for Neyer. Neyer is projecting, so it's understandable that he thinks Upton will develop into the best. I don't necessarily agree with him. But none of those guys have the speed of Upton, and Upton may match them in power. At 22, Upton hit .300/.386/.508. At 24, Pence hit .322/.360/.539. So Upton matched Pence in OPS and has more speed, and is two years younger. Granderson is 4 years older, and was only slightly more productive last year. It's not unreasonable at all to have Upton at the top. And Neyer basically says he could understand rating someone else higher. It's all speculative.

by SouthernCub on Feb 1, 2008 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I get that

and putting Pence and Upton at 3 or 4 is almost interchangeable, but Granderson and Sizemore have proven they can do it consistently in the bigs, whereas Upton and Pence haven't--not that I think they won't.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 1, 2008 10:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

CF

Ranking Carlos Beltran so low is silly. He is one of the best players in baseball and hasn't hit his 30th birthday yet. The sleeper name on this list if Josh Hamilton. He flashed a beautiful compact swing with Cincy. I won't be surprised to see him win a batting title to go along with being a consistent and quality run producer.

by MDBNIU on Feb 1, 2008 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

agree on Hamilton...I think

..Beltran is that low due an already early history with injuries...

Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Feb 1, 2008 11:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltran is low...

...because it's a list covering the next five seasons. In five years, Beltran will be 35 - past his prime. Guys like Upton and Granderson will be right in the best years of their prime.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 2, 2008 9:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course this is silly.

This is the sort of thing you write because it's the offseason and you're still required to turn in writen material about baseball every so often.

It's still fun to talk about, so long as we understand that it's silly.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 2, 2008 9:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think..

... it's way too early to say "Pie can't hit major league LHP's."

That was the rap against a kid named Mark Grace when he first came up and would sit against "tough" lefties. He proved them wrong pretty fast -- even in his rookie year, he hit .286/.373/.429 against LHP.

Pie only had 38 AB against LHP in 2007 (141 vs RHP). Way too few to make this judgment.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 2, 2008 4:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I realize now

I should've phrased that as "Pie has to prove he can hit ML lefties." You're right...way too early to typecast a kid like pie.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 2, 2008 10:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The truth of the matter is that

we know Pie can't hit ML LHPs because he can't even hit AAA LHPs. He might be able to hit them in the future. But then we have to wonder about this - if the Cubs take Pie out against every LHP to put in Marlon Byrd or someone with a similar profile, then will he ever hit LHP? And if the Cubs let Pie flail at ML LHPs, will it be the difference between making the playoffs and not?

I say all this as a huge Pie fan, who hopes we don't trade him and do play him.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 2, 2008 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

One thing that might help...

... is to give Pie as many AB vs. LHP as possible during spring training, especially early in games when you know you'll be facing a major league starter.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 2, 2008 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You want to know the damnedest thing?

Here's Pie's winter league stats:

vs. RHP - .227/.292/.364
vs. LHP - .282/.364/.385

Yes, I meant to put his split against righties up top and his split against lefties on the bottom.

What does it mean? I haven't the foggiest.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 2, 2008 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The SLGs are a little worrisome.

But the OBA's look good.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 2, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's the Dominican Winter League.

The DWL is extremely favorable to pitching; the league average in the DWL for last season was .244/.312/.328, for an OPS of .641. Now some of that you can attribute to league quality, but some of it is a factor of how the parks and league environment favor pitchers.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 2, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Still...

.... the splits are interesting.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 2, 2008 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

perhaps he is bunting for those hits against..

..the LHP thus the low SLG %?

Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Feb 2, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's not a low slugging...

...in the context of the DWL. That's the point.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 2, 2008 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

The Cubs had him working on specific kinds of hitting. It's possible they could have told him not to try and hit for power in winter league just to make him more versatile. We know, as a comparison, that Samardzija was told to throw a certain number of change-ups to better that pitch and because he had to throw a pitch that was not so good, it made him more hittable in general. Hopefully, like with Samardzija, Pie will move up a level (the MLs) and hit better all-around, both for power and for average.

It is good to at least see him hit lefties in the Winter Leagues (sample size beware).

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 2, 2008 11:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have

the splits on AB's vs. RHP and Ab's vs. LHP? Perhaps this is just a result of him have fewer, but better, AB's vs. LHP...but, as DGU warns below, this is likely a small sample anyway.

I'd like to see Pie make the adjustments. I really like him, like his energy and his effort on the field, but the Cubs can't afford to have 2 auto-outs (in addition to the P spot) in the lineup like they did at times last season. I really hope Pie can make it. I like Al's suggestion of putting Pie up against LHP at every opportunity during spring training.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 2, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sizemore not no. 1 is nuts....

Hes like a laser beam out there and hes got 20/20 potential every year not mention the heaps of runs he scores. Id say its a dead heat b/t him and Granderson

Toby Flenderson represents all that is wrong with the paper business.

by bren on Feb 1, 2008 8:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The list

It's nuts to throw guys like Pie, Pence and Bruce on the list until they have logged a meaningful major league sample size. This might be hearsay on this blog, but I'm not bullish on Felix Pie. I do not like that swing and approach to hitting.

No argument (I guess) at having BJ Upton and Curtis Granderson at the top. Both are deeply impressive young players who are have just scratched the surface. But how does anybody really put together a 1-10 list of envisioned 5 year production!?!?

by MDBNIU on Feb 1, 2008 10:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's "heresy," not "hearsay"

And I'd say there's a fair amount of people who aren't bullish on Pie, so I wouldn't call it heresy either.

I agree that the list is silly. So much of it is speculative, especially after the top 4 or so.

by SouthernCub on Feb 1, 2008 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

make that...

after the top 6. Beltran and Young look like they've got some talent. :)

But seriously, Cabrera can field but hasn't shown much with the bat, and the other three after him have done nothing at the plate. And who's to say that Beltran can't put up 5 years of stats in the neighborhood of the top 3-4?

by SouthernCub on Feb 1, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

CF

I need to check my pessimism on Felix Pie at the door for awhile. He deserves a shot to see what he can do. That hitting approach he flashed in 2007 horrified me. He never had the same batting stance two at bats in a row.

by MDBNIU on Feb 1, 2008 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

pie

it feels like we,ve been hearing about pie forever.great defensive player but will he ever hit????maybe fonsie should help him out.

by NOMAR on Feb 2, 2008 6:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

He's TWENTY THREE

Jesus. Pie is TWENTY THREE (okay, he's 22, he turns 23 at the end of the month). He has put up stellar offensive numbers at every minor league level. Young players often struggle in their first few years in the majors. And that's why well run teams recognize this and give the young player a little scrap. But not the Cubs and the Cub fans. Every player must leap fully formed from the head of Zeus and play like a Hall of Famer from the start or they are a "failure" and must be replaced by a journeyman major league player with a low ceiling.

If the Cubs are not willing to make Pie the starting CF and leave him out there for the full season, then they should trade him and realize that this is a team which will NEVER be able to build for the long term. And they should go ahead and dump Marshall, Hill, Marmol, Soto et al. After all, Henry Blanco has so many more major league hits than Soto. Blanco has 448 and Soto 32 so Blanco's clearly the better hitter.

by frustratedfan on Feb 2, 2008 9:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In fact...

... I think that's exactly what the Cubs have done with Pie and exactly what they plan to do.

We are all still stung by what happened to Corey Patterson. He shouldn't be held up as the example for decades to come.

Pie's not Patterson, and I think all of us realize that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 2, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I'd like to know who are the previous young talents that the Cubs didn't give a fair break to. Corey Patterson netted nearly 1,500 at bats in a Cub uniform. Jason Dubois, Hee Seop Choi and Bobby Hill did nothing once they were ditched/traded by the Cubs. Your argument would carry more weight if there were examples of Cubbie prospects that went on to blossom elsewhere.

The Cubs have been patient with Felix Pie and are poised to give him an outstanding opportunity to be the starting CFer. It's up to him to rise to the ocassion, not the other way around. The organization has coached and coddled Pie to death.

by MDBNIU on Feb 2, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Irrelevant

The answer as to whether other prospects went on to be "stars" is irrelevant. Firstly, Pie is, and has always been, regarded as a much greater blue chipper than those other players. Secondly, there is the issue of "spoilage" and "ruined" development. Corey Patterson is a prime example of a very talented young man who's career development was severely damaged by the brain (t)rust of the Cubs and their refusal to push the young player into the right type of game for his body.

As for the others, Hee Seop Choi is another example of a very good young minor league player that never really got a fair break and was badly damaged by being held back far too long in the Cub system.

The fact is that the failure to develop young talent and the refusal to play good young talent and give them a chance are directly related.

by frustratedfan on Feb 2, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Like they say with the stock market, past results do not predicate future performance. What Corey did or Bobby did or Hee did have exactly ZERO to do with Felix Pie or any of the other Cubs' prospects. It's akin to saying since Brien Taylor was a bomb, Philip Hughes will be one too. I'm really looking forward to all the hitters coming through their system now. I'd be very much surprised if none of them replace Girardi as the Cubs last homegrown All-Star. Mahalo

Matt

by WayneCampbell05 on Feb 4, 2008 7:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

no doubt.......

time to put up or shut up this year for pie!he's hitting a robust .244 with licey in the dominican league and striking out frequently.

by cubz409 on Feb 2, 2008 12:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pie and Upton compared

I don't know why I didn't think of Upton before as a comp for Pie.
In his age 21 season, Upton in 175 ABs hit a putrid .246/.302/.291. Then last year, he hit .300/.386/.508. So, Felix had 177 ABs in his age 22 season. Let's see how he does in his second season before writing him off completely.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 2, 2008 1:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Time to put up or shut up is exactly it.

He doesn't even need to put up huge. He's the kind of guy where if he just gets on is a huge threat.

I he can lead an inning off and get on base it would be HUGE. A pitcher lay a bunt down and to have him at 2nd with our leadoff man up. You would have to feel good about that.

He doesnt need to but the bat on the ball just get on base... Ill take a lower batting average if he is getting walks instead of K's.

by dus22 on Feb 2, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs