A State of Pitching Confusion

by louslovechild on Feb 17, 2008 3:34 PM CST Comment 39 comments

I am a regular on here. I mainly comment on things, but rarely do I start my own diary (fear of taking on the wrath of BCB regulars).

We have talked all winter about the pitching that we have. We know Z, Lilly and Hill are staples. That is great, but now that Lou has named Hill as our #4, I became very intrigued about the level of pitching that we do possess, and what a top tier pitching staff really is.

I understand what Lou is tryint to do. He wants Righty, Lefty, Righty, Lefty, Righty. That is complately understandable. So now we know that Marshall will not be starting this season. He will not go back to back with Hill at the end of the rotation and Lilly is the other Lefty. So that leaves: Gallagher, Lieber, Dempster, and Hart. Hart will probably be the longman, and Lieber was basically guaranteed a spot in the rotation, so we are down to Marquis and Dempster.

By my account the rotation is Z, Lilly, ??, Hill, and Lieber. Do any of you consider Marquis or Dempster to be a #3? Me either. You cannot put Lieber at #3, he isnt reliable enough and is injury prone. So please tell me who it will be, and based on everyone's vast baseball knowledge, how does that rotation stack up? Personally, I feel that it is above average, and that really is all it takes in the NL.

So let us recap. I want to know if you agree with why assessment of the rotation. Who will be the #3 man come opening day? How does our rotation compare, not only in the NL but MLB?

Thanks ladies and gents.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Well, personally

my hope is that Gallagher or Hart really show up this spring and fill that spot. Barring that, I think Hendry will acquire another starter before Opening Day. I don't mind the idea of Lieber in the five spot, but I agree that having him at 3 is not a good idea. I don't care much for Marquis, but he's a serviceable 4 or 5, IMO. The thought of Dempster in the rotation makes me ill.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 17, 2008 3:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Buy some Tums

Dempster and Marquis are interchangeable. At least Dempster is playing for a big contract.

Speaking of Dempster - where are all the boosters for him talking about all his intangibles? Do only short middle infielder get to have intangibles?

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 17, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm no baseball Platonist,

therefore intangibles do not exist for me.

Thanks for the advice on the Tums; perhaps Mylanta should become a sponsor for the Cubs upcoming season, because if Dempster ends up in the rotation, we're all going to be drinking it.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 17, 2008 3:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dempster Diving

The typical pitcher increases his ERA by 25% if he goes from being a reliever to a starter. So, if we look at Dempster's ERA from last year (essentially 4.25 if you lop off that last game) or if we look at the PECOTA projection for him as a reliever this year (4.24), we should expect a 5.30 ERA as a fifth starter.

Do you seriously expect Marquis to do much better than that?

The question about Dempster is whether or not there are reasons to believe he might beat the odds and be one of those pitchers whose ERA does not go up 25%.

One thing to consider along those lines is that 23 out of 35 of his ERs came in just 6 outings where he totally lost it and gave up 3 or more runs. When a closer has nothing the manager tends to leave him out there and take the shelling. Dempster as a starter could be a different story. He could give up the big inning then come back and pitch well for 5 more innings. Or if he's got nothing, Lou can pull him quickly.

I am convinced that Dempster is more likely to get his ERA under 5.00 than Marquis is.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 17, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I see your point.

And, as regards this:

I am convinced that Dempster is more likely to get his ERA under 5.00 than Marquis is.

I don't think either of them can hope for and ERA under 5 for a whole season. Dempster probably has a better chance of having a better April and May than Marquis, but I don't see Dempster being any better than Marquis over the span of the season.

I'd rather not even have to do this lesser-of-two-evils sort of calculus and just see Gallagher and Marshall push Marquis and Dempster out of the rotation, period.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 17, 2008 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Seeing as though

Dempster ended last season with an ERA of 4.73 and Marquis ended last season with an ERA of 4.60 (and that is having pitched nearly 3 times the number of innings Dempster had). I would say it is far more likely that Marquis would be the man with the ERA under 5. He is enjoying a career ERA of 4.56. They both have the potential, but I just don't think Dempster is gonna cut it starting this year. But we'll see, I guess.

by JFG72 on Feb 18, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I figure it's only fair

to lop off that last game of the season from Dempster's ERA (and the half a run increase it gave his ERA), given he seemed to be throwing as if he was at a church softball game.

Still, the problem is this - say Dempster pitches and has a 5.25 ERA at the end of this year. What do you do? You let him walk; he's a free agent. Say Marquis is still with the Cubs has a 5.25 ERA at the end of this year. What do you do? Nothing. You can't do anything because no one will take him in a trade. The only time to trade Marquis is now.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 18, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not exactly.

Marquis is a first-half pitcher. The time to deal him is July.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 18, 2008 4:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

Even if he goes to the 'pen, Hendry can always peddle him as a "fresh arm."

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 18, 2008 5:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Jacque Jones

was a first-half hitter in '05 and '06. We saw how that turned out in '07. I don't think Hendry's going to play with fire again on Marquis. I think if the Twins hadn't dragged their feet so long on Johan, Marquis would be out already.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 18, 2008 8:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lieber is the #3

You wrote: "You cannot put Lieber at #3, he isnt reliable enough and is injury prone." Everything I am reading is pointing towards Lieber as the #3, which would suggest their read of his health is good. His injuries were not arm related last year, so there's a good chance he got them taken care of and will be fine. Of course, he's 38, but say he does break down. It's not the end of the world. We'll have a pitcher to replace him with.

I also don't think Marshall has no shot. I think the Cubs plan to trade Marquis and plan to start the year:
Z-Lilly-Lieber-Hill-Demp with Marshall as the long man in the pen. But if Marshall looks strong and ready to go, they can still run a rotation out that goes
Z-Lilly-Hill-Lieber-Marshall.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 17, 2008 3:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Lieber

Why does his name keep coming up in the equation? The simple fact is that his ERA+, a very important stat for pitchers, has never been all that good, and in the past several years has gotten worse. A Lieber, at the top of his game and at the peak of his career is, at best, a number 3 starter. An aging Lieber well into his decline, coming off an injury, and two very poor years, offers nothing.

by frustratedfan on Feb 18, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

First off

I'm confused with your 2nd sentence. Who said you can't post diaries? You're a Cubs fan, correct? You have opinions, correct? You may not say things that everyone agrees with all the time; who cares. I reference one of the coolest lines from a movie the last 20 years, "Led Zeppelin didn't write songs everyone liked, they left that to the Bee Gee's".

Second, the rotation will be what it is come 31 March. How's that for uncommitted? Injuries aside, it'll be 5 of the following (in no particular order): Z, Lilly, Hill, Lieber, Marshall, Gallagher, Marquis, Dempster.

Could there be another youngster/darkhorse, perhaps. And I only put Dempster in that list since Lou said he'd give him a chance.

If I had to place a bet without taking contracts/finances into account, it'd be Z, Lilly, Hill, Lieber and Marshall.

by blackhawk24 on Feb 17, 2008 4:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I share your concerns....all

..the endless Roberts talk and the number one concern from my perspective is that we have plenty of 4's and 5's and no real number 2.

That being said, we can win the division with this team, but unless one of these starters blows thier projections away, we dont stack up against the elite AL teams in a seven game series....and that's the goal right?

I know I am way ahead of myself here with so much yet to happen, but I agree with the your concern. If it turns out were short on good starters there is always 7/31.

Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Feb 17, 2008 4:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Here's my feeling about the rotation

After the first time around, it doesn't really matter who's a number this and a number that. You have to go out and beat the other guy's pitcher no matter who's throwing for you.

I think too much time is spent debating these rankings. JMHO.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 17, 2008 4:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

true, but what starters are starting matters

n/t

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 17, 2008 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

True.

As noted in one of the comments below, it will sort itself out before Opening Day. There hasn't even been an intrasquad game yet. Patience.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 17, 2008 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lieber

will get a spot and the remaining spot will be decided in the spring.

I disagree with your diary title though. It's not confusion. There are numerous candidates and everything will get sorted out before Opening Day. It's actually a good thing. Relax.

by rlpete on Feb 17, 2008 4:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I dont know why Marshall would be assumed

Out of the rotation. Last year he outpitched the others he is in competition with by a good deal. Sean Marshall had an ERA+ (park adjusted) of 119 which puts him at 19% above the league average for pitchers.

Dude is a good pitcher and there is no reason he shouldn't be in the 5 spot again this spring.

by sheamcmurray on Feb 17, 2008 4:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pitching Staff

To start the season, I think there will be 4 starters until the 19th, so you'd basically have a rotation of Zambrano-Lilly-Lieber/Dempster-Hill for a good 15 games. I can live with this. Overall, I think the staff should be:

Staters

Zambrano
Lilly
Lieber
Hill
Marshall

Relievers
C - Wood
8th - Howry
7th - Marmol
LR - Dempster
LR - Hart
RP - Wuertz
RP - Eyre

Fox could possibly make it in the pen over Hart if he stays healthy. Marquis will most likely be traded for at least something, he is not in our plans. Marshall, although people think he is a carbon copy of Hill, is the better choice over Dempster.

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 17, 2008 4:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Except

Marshall, Cotts or Pignatiello will make it as a second lefty. Lou won't go with one lefty in the pen.

by rlpete on Feb 17, 2008 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Which means...

... either a trade, or Hart starts the year at Iowa.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 17, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But...

Lou isnt going to put Marshall in the 5 spot after Hill. THEY ARE THE SAME GUY!!! Except for the fact that Marshall doesnt have the juice to make it past the 5th. Marshall is either traded or in the pen.

I honestly dont know the fascination with this guy. He is a poor man's Rich Hill. Relies on curve ball and inside fast balls, but neither are as good as Hill's.

I wasnt going to bring up trade rumors, since I am actually quite tired of even thinking about them, but why cant we go out and find a solid #3? Stick Lieber at #5 where he belongs.

by louslovechild on Feb 17, 2008 5:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

5+ innings

I think he made it past 5 innings in 11 out of his 21 games started.

Not the greatest but definitly not the worse.

by ak123 on Feb 17, 2008 5:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Poor Man's Hill, I think not

Rich Hill (2007):

.392 ERA/119 ERA+63 BB/183 SO 195.0 IP

Sean Marshall (2007):

.392 ERA/119 ERA+35 BB/67 SO 103.3 IP

If you extrapolate Marshall's numbers to 195 innings, walks are very similar (granted SO's are less), but other than that they are both above average pitchers and pretty good for the 4 and 5 spot.

by sheamcmurray on Feb 17, 2008 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Extrapolating is great and all, but....

Marshall doesnt have the arm or ability to pitch that maany innings, or he would have. He got lit up in the 5th and beyond. Once a decent line up saw him 2 or 3 times he was toast.

by louslovechild on Feb 17, 2008 6:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily

IIRC Piniella has said in the past that with the success Wuertz has had against lefties, they'd be fine with only one lefty in the pen. I think its a joke that Cotts was offered a contract.

DmL

by dmlichte on Feb 17, 2008 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Marquis first half

I think Marquis will be the #3 starter (not that I count that as a true #3) for the first half of the season. I think Lou will keep him there until he fails.

Hopefully someone picks up in AAA or stands out in relief. Marshall, Hart, Gallagher could fill that void.

My guess if I were to make one is that Marquis will be traded when his value is higher. AKA by the first half of the season he might have a 7-4 record with an ERA at 4.25. Trade him to a team willing to take a risk on him having a poor second half.

The other thing to consider is he had a weird stat that The Cubs won the most games that he started compared to all other starters. I remembered reading that I think on Cubs.com last October but cannot personally confirm that statistic.

Sorry I ranted again....

by ak123 on Feb 17, 2008 4:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Marquis' value

will not get higher. It will only get lower from this point. Hendry learned this lesson from Jacque Jones and will take the best offer he gets at the end of the day for Marquis. The hangup with Marquis being traded is that Lohse is still out there. Why trade for Marquis when you can sign Lohse?

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 17, 2008 5:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs