Bleed Cubbie Blue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: MLB postseason scores, schedules and blog coverage Bar-right-arrows



2008 Community Projections: Kosuke Fukudome


Kosuke Fukudome's rookie card as a Chunichi Dragon

This projection could go almost any way you want it to go. Will Dome continue to have the production he's had in Japan? Most Japanese position players have seen their power decline when coming to MLB, but the other parts of their game stay about the same.

Keep in mind when perusing Dome's NPB career stats that NPB plays shorter seasons than MLB -- 144 games to MLB's 162. When healthy, Dome has played nearly every game (five times played 130 games or more), and I'd expect him to play in over 150 games this year. Per 162 games, he has hit 28 HR in Japan. Here's my pick:

AB: 588
R: 96
H: 177
2B: 39
3B: 4
HR: 18
RBI: 86
BB: 80
SO: 120
AVG: .301
OBA: .385
SLG: .473

UPDATE [2008-2-26 11:48:33 by Al]: This thread is now closed. Here is the final community projection for Kosuke Fukudome:

AB: 568
R: 92
H: 169
2B: 39
3B: 5
HR: 19
RBI: 88
BB: 72
SO: 99
AVG: .297
OBA: .376
SLG: .481

0 recs | Comment 39 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Dome
AB: 569
R: 100
H: 169
2B: 37
3B: 6
HR: 16
RBI: 94
BB: 74
SO: 101
AVG: .297
OBA: .379
SLG: .468

by McRipper on Feb 21, 2008 8:52 AM CST   0 recs

Kosuke Fukudome
AB - 525
R - 80
H - 150
2B - 40
3B - 5
HR - 13
RBI - 82
BB - 71
K - 99

AVG - .286
OBP - .371
SLG - .455

OPS - .826

by Ayralin on Feb 21, 2008 9:29 AM CST   0 recs

Dome
AB: 545
R: 92
H: 167
2B: 47
3B: 5
HR: 18
RBI: 88
BB: 77
SO: 88
AVE: .293
OBP: 377
SLG: 476

Stay Healthly Dome, and gun down runners trying to go first to 3rd.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Feb 21, 2008 9:39 AM CST   0 recs

Al
If your projections for this year are correct, this is going to be a great year!

by Rick on Feb 21, 2008 9:41 AM CST   0 recs

tony412
AB: 614
R: 96
H: 170
2B: 42
3B: 3
HR: 14
RBI: 82
BB: 71
SO: 91
AVG: .291
OBA: .376
SLG: .439
"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Feb 21, 2008 9:53 AM CST   0 recs

Kosuke
In a perfect world he should hit #2, but out of necessity he probably hits #5.   Therefore I envision the following...

AB: 550
R: 100
H: 175
2B: 30
3B: 8
HR: 15
RBI: 80
AVG: .300
OBA: .390
SLG: .465

by MDBNIU on Feb 21, 2008 10:12 AM CST   0 recs

I think he will hit lower...more RBIs
AB - 545
R - 85
H - 170
2B - 45
3B - 7
HR - 16
RBI - 92
BB - 65
SO - 86

AVG - .291
OBP - .375
SLG - .460

MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Feb 21, 2008 10:19 AM CST   0 recs

My 2 best Fukudome Projections...
Kosuke Fukudome 2008

AB: 560
R: 87
H: 162
2B: 39
3B: 5
HR: 18
RBI: 94
BB: 72
SO: 91
AVG: .289
OBA: .370
SLG: .478

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 21, 2008 10:40 AM CST   0 recs

Kosuke...youre our only hope
beautiful
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 21, 2008 11:30 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Help me Number One...
...you're my only hope.
An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 21, 2008 1:24 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

As Quoted by Ron Burgundy
"never ceases to amaze"
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 7:03 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Fukudome...
AB: 600
R: 100
H: 174
2B: 48
3B: 3
HR: 22
RBI: 90
BB: 82
SO: 91
AVG: .290
OBA: .375
SLG: .490

by Damen Jackson on Feb 21, 2008 10:40 AM CST   0 recs

Fukudome Thoughts
I don't anticipate a good April out of him, but he has a great chance of having a noteworthy summer.

AB: 590
R: 96
H: 183
2B: 54
3B: 4
HR: 13
RBI: 88
BB: 74
SO: 120
AVG: .310
OBA: .387
SLG: .481

SB: 13
CS: 5

by Qixotl on Feb 21, 2008 10:46 AM CST   0 recs

Wow, Al -
That certainly is optimistic for a player who has barely seen MLB pitching, in his first year.

I hope you are right!

Wait 'til next year. And the next. And the Next. And the next after that too.

by TheEman on Feb 21, 2008 10:58 AM CST   0 recs

I go off...
... the experiences of other Japanese players, who have seen their power drop, but other things stay the same. I don't see why Dome would be any different. If I were being wildly optimistic I'd be projecting 30 HR, but that's not realistic.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 21, 2008 12:05 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Fuk-u!
AB: 575
R: 88
H: 169
2B: 34
3B: 4
HR: 16
RBI: 82
BB: 64
SO: 101
AVG: .294
OBA: .364
SLG: .450
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"

by The Ryno and I Know on Feb 21, 2008 11:14 AM CST   0 recs

Fuku
AB: 582
R: 98
H: 176
2B: 42
3B: 3
HR: 21
RBI: 82
BB: 82
SO: 112
AVG: .302
OBA: .379
SLG: .465

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 21, 2008 11:15 AM CST   0 recs

Dome-ay
I've got my #1 jersey ironed... ready to go hang out on Sheffield with the ballhawks.

AB: 611
R: 101
H: 181
2B: 36
3B: 9
HR: 26
RBI: 97
BB/HBP: 107
SO: 122
AVG: .296
OBA: .401
SLG: .512

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 21, 2008 1:21 PM CST   0 recs

here it goes
AB: 591
R: 87
H: 170
2B: 46
3B: 5
HR: 22
RBI: 86
BB: 88
SO: 94
AVG: .388
OBA: .380
SLG: .494

And 18 assists to lead the NL edging out Francouer.

by socalbob on Feb 21, 2008 1:50 PM CST   0 recs

BA...
... in the above projection should be .288, not .388. I assume that's a typo.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 21, 2008 2:02 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

typo, yes
I glossed over it too quickly.  Nice catch!

by socalbob on Feb 21, 2008 2:24 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Dome
I'm clueless on the power numbers, but I think he'll adjust quickly and have an excellent year.

PA: 580
AB: 510
R: 85
H: 153
2B: 30
3B: 6
HR: 10
RBI: 105 (assuming he bats 5th)
BB: 70
SO: 90
AVG: .300
OBA: .385
SLG: .441

SB: 23
CS: 5
OF-A: 18

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Feb 21, 2008 2:31 PM CST   0 recs

Who knows?
AB: 500
R: 90
H: 140
2B: 35
3B: 5
HR: 18
RBI: 100
BB: 85
SO: 120
AVG: .280
OBA: .385
SLG: .472
Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 21, 2008 2:38 PM CST   0 recs

leads the team...
in strike outs.  I hadn't noticed how much he struck out in Japan until doing this.  His K% rates over the last years vary a bit (25%, 19%, 27%, 22%, 18% going backward), but using any of his years since the 2002 season as a basis puts his K totals for 2008 pretty high, assuming he gets the at bats his contract implies.

AB-580
R-82
H-177
2B-37
3B-2
BB-80
SO-140
HR-15
RBI-85
AVG-.305
OBP-.389
SLG-.453

by kranskie on Feb 21, 2008 2:48 PM CST   0 recs

May Dome do well
AB: 575
R: 90
H: 173
2B: 40
3B: 5
HR: 20
RBI: 85
BB: 70
SO: 110
AVG: .301
OBA: .377
SLG: .492
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 21, 2008 3:00 PM CST   0 recs

I'm still mulling my projection...
...but wanted to pass along this Paul Sullivan article from today's Trib. Sullivan notes that Dome faced live pitching for the first time, namely Les "I Am the Walrus" Walrond, Carmen "Have You Seen the Little Piggies?" Pignatiello and Jose "C.C. Pick Up That Guitar and Talk to Me" Ceda. Asked why he swung at only two pitches, Dome said:
"I was ready to swing at a strike, but I didn't see too many. That's why I just watched."

Oh, zing!

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 21, 2008 3:06 PM CST   0 recs

Welcome to The Fukudome!
AB: 587
R:  92
H: 177
2B: 38
3B: 2
HR:  23
RBI:  97
BB: 81
K:  99
Avg:  .302
OBP:  .386
 

by SamFels on Feb 21, 2008 4:57 PM CST   0 recs

chanman25
G: 162
AB: 569
R: 86
H: 173
2b: 35
3b: 5
HR: 21
RBI: 90
SO: 119
BB: 86
AVG: .304
OBP: .405
SLG: .490

maybe I am too optimistic..

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 8:16 PM CST   0 recs

BIG year for Kosuke!! The Beast from the East!!
AB:   560
PA:   648
R:    106
H:    177
1B:   110
2B:   41
3B:   5
BB:   88
SO:   96
HR:   21
RBI:  80
AVG:  .316
OBP:  .409
SLG:  .538
OPS:  1.028
wOBA: .418
wBA:  .334
RC:   119
"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 21, 2008 8:28 PM CST   0 recs

oops..
your OPS doesn't add up. OPS is OBP + slugging

by wojo on Feb 22, 2008 12:10 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Dang spreadsheet.
I'll have to look at it again.  Weird.
"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 22, 2008 7:49 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Using information I found on SABRmetrics
that says
OBP*SLG is not the correct measure for a player because he usually doesn't drive himself in.  Instead, you want to multiply his OBP by the team's SLG, and his SLG by the team's OBP.  Since the league SLG(and individual teams' SLG) are usually about 1.2 times the OBP, each point of a player's OBP has 1.2 times the effect on OBP*SLG that a point of his SLG has.  Thus our measure is (1.2*OBP)+SLG.

There's more but that's what I was using to figure OPS.  May not be entirely correct but closer, I believe, than just OBP+SLG.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 23, 2008 8:42 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

While this is true...
... I'm trying to keep it simple here. Let's just use OBA+SLG to compute OPS.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 23, 2008 12:53 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Lineup
Lou stated on Cubs.com that there is a possibility that Fukudome will hit 3rd in the lineup. The lineup would be as followed:
  1. Soriano
  2. Theriot
  3. Fukudome
  4. Lee
  5. Ramirez
  6. DeRosa
  7. Soto
  8. Pie
hopefully, that is not the case.
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 8:34 PM CST   0 recs

Fukudome
AB: 510
R: 75
H: 135
2B: 21
3B: 3
HR: 9
RBI: 60
BB: 30
SO: 45
AVG: .265
OBA: .323
SLG: .370

Never shows the power needed,  but doesn't try to overswing for the fences and keeps down the strikeouts.  Has the lowest GIDP ratio on the team of any starter.

by frustratedfan on Feb 22, 2008 11:19 AM CST   0 recs

I think he'll start a little slow...
...but by July or August be one of the hottest hitters in the game. And I think the power does show, particularly later in the season when his discipline and conditioning really starts to pay dividends. Here goes:

AB: 550
R: 87
H: 160
2B: 38
3B: 5
BB/HBP: 75
SO: 104
HR: 21
RBI: 81
SB: 15
CS: 5
AVG: .290
OBP: .376
SLG: .493
OPS: .869

Maybe not rookie of the year numbers, but just what the Cubs were looking for -- lots of doubles, high OBP, and his patience at the plate rubs off on his teammates. His defense is every bit as good as billed, too.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 22, 2008 3:06 PM CST   0 recs

Fukudome vs Jacque Jones.....
will be a huge improvement from last season. We will all be pleasently surprised with the play of Fukudome. He will do all the little things that help the Cubs win. I like the fact to put him in the three hole. No more ground outs to second about 400 times.

by montecarlo on Feb 23, 2008 3:34 AM CST   0 recs

Fukudome
AB-560
R-90
H-165
2B-30
3B-4
HR-20
BB-80
SO-110
RBI-85
AVE-.294
OBP-.382
SLG-.470
"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 23, 2008 4:15 PM CST   0 recs

Dome
AB-620
R-101
H-209
2B-40
3B-2
HR-26
BB-96
SO-66
RBI-71
AVE-.337
OBP-.409
SLG-.534
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 24, 2008 9:44 AM CST   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Bleed Cubbie Blue, the Chicago Cubs blog for the SB Nation, created on February 9, 2005 by Al Yellon

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
My Tentative Cubs Top 20 Prospect List
Sandberg_small
2008 Regular Season Pitchers Review
Tommielogo_small
BCB Fantasy Baseball Champions
Sandberg_small
2008 Regular Season Hitters Review
Marmolade_small
thanks al

Recent FanPosts

Small
If I Were Jim Hendry...
Small
Dear Cubs (A Breakup Letter)
Small
bill murray's take on the '08 season, from Letterman
Zambrano_background_2_small
Rate the trade value of current Cubs
Small
Bill Simmons: Manny Being Manipulated
P3050522_small
Embrace the Curse - An Opposing View
Small
Another 2009 Post
Small
my 2009 wish list ???????
Doggie_small
What makes BCB stand out

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

OT: Jose Canseco busted again!
Bill Murray made a cameo during Saturday Night Live's Election Special on Thursday night. During...
The Walter E Smith Cubs montage that never had a chance going for it and thus may never air
Super Amazing Chicago Cubs Etch A Sketch (via etchedintime)
Water Pipe smashed in LA clubhouse
Marmol injured
What to do?
God Savoring Vast Array of Cubs-Cursing Options
My thoughts put into an image of words.

Go, Cubs.
All That Way for This - a 2008 Retrospective

Post_icon New FanShot All FanShots Carrot-mini

MLB Postseason Coverage

Camden Chat
Unbiased Postseason Recap: Day Eight
Over the Monster
Matsuzaka shuts down Rays, 2-0
DRaysBay
Recap: Thou Hath Wilted in The Pressure like Flower.
AZ Snakepit
Playoffs 2008: ALCS - Red Sox/Rays
The Good Phight
NLCS Game Two Recap: Red Friday

More SB Nation Postseason Coverage

Google Ads


Editor-in-Chief

Yelloncard_small Al

Editorial Cartoonist

Toonmike_small toonmike

Photographer

Dsc_0139_small holy mackerel

ad

Site Meter