2008 Community Projections: Kosuke Fukudome

by Al Yellon on Feb 21, 2008 8:39 AM CST in Community Projections

Kosuke Fukudome's rookie card as a Chunichi Dragon

This projection could go almost any way you want it to go. Will Dome continue to have the production he's had in Japan? Most Japanese position players have seen their power decline when coming to MLB, but the other parts of their game stay about the same.

Keep in mind when perusing Dome's NPB career stats that NPB plays shorter seasons than MLB -- 144 games to MLB's 162. When healthy, Dome has played nearly every game (five times played 130 games or more), and I'd expect him to play in over 150 games this year. Per 162 games, he has hit 28 HR in Japan. Here's my pick:

AB: 588
R: 96
H: 177
2B: 39
3B: 4
HR: 18
RBI: 86
BB: 80
SO: 120
AVG: .301
OBA: .385
SLG: .473

UPDATE [2008-2-26 11:48:33 by Al]: This thread is now closed. Here is the final community projection for Kosuke Fukudome:

AB: 568
R: 92
H: 169
2B: 39
3B: 5
HR: 19
RBI: 88
BB: 72
SO: 99
AVG: .297
OBA: .376
SLG: .481

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Dome

AB: 569
R: 100
H: 169
2B: 37
3B: 6
HR: 16
RBI: 94
BB: 74
SO: 101
AVG: .297
OBA: .379
SLG: .468

by McRipper on Feb 21, 2008 8:52 AM CST reply actions

Kosuke Fukudome

AB - 525
R - 80
H - 150
2B - 40
3B - 5
HR - 13
RBI - 82
BB - 71
K - 99

AVG - .286
OBP - .371
SLG - .455

OPS - .826

by Ayralin on Feb 21, 2008 9:29 AM CST reply actions

Dome

AB: 545
R: 92
H: 167
2B: 47
3B: 5
HR: 18
RBI: 88
BB: 77
SO: 88
AVE: .293
OBP: 377
SLG: 476

Stay Healthly Dome, and gun down runners trying to go first to 3rd.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Feb 21, 2008 9:39 AM CST reply actions

Al

If your projections for this year are correct, this is going to be a great year!

by Rick @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 21, 2008 9:41 AM CST reply actions

tony412

AB: 614
R: 96
H: 170
2B: 42
3B: 3
HR: 14
RBI: 82
BB: 71
SO: 91
AVG: .291
OBA: .376
SLG: .439

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Feb 21, 2008 9:53 AM CST reply actions

Kosuke

In a perfect world he should hit #2, but out of necessity he probably hits #5. Therefore I envision the following...

AB: 550
R: 100
H: 175
2B: 30
3B: 8
HR: 15
RBI: 80
AVG: .300
OBA: .390
SLG: .465

by MDBNIU on Feb 21, 2008 10:12 AM CST reply actions

I think he will hit lower...more RBIs

AB - 545
R - 85
H - 170
2B - 45
3B - 7
HR - 16
RBI - 92
BB - 65
SO - 86

AVG - .291
OBP - .375
SLG - .460

MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Feb 21, 2008 10:19 AM CST reply actions

My 2 best Fukudome Projections...

Kosuke Fukudome 2008

AB: 560
R: 87
H: 162
2B: 39
3B: 5
HR: 18
RBI: 94
BB: 72
SO: 91
AVG: .289
OBA: .370
SLG: .478

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 21, 2008 10:40 AM CST reply actions

Kosuke...youre our only hope

beautiful

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 21, 2008 11:30 AM CST up reply actions

Help me Number One...

...you're my only hope.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 21, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions

As Quoted by Ron Burgundy

"never ceases to amaze"

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 7:03 PM CST up reply actions

Fukudome...

AB: 600
R: 100
H: 174
2B: 48
3B: 3
HR: 22
RBI: 90
BB: 82
SO: 91
AVG: .290
OBA: .375
SLG: .490

by Damen Jackson on Feb 21, 2008 10:40 AM CST reply actions

Fukudome Thoughts

I don't anticipate a good April out of him, but he has a great chance of having a noteworthy summer.

AB: 590
R: 96
H: 183
2B: 54
3B: 4
HR: 13
RBI: 88
BB: 74
SO: 120
AVG: .310
OBA: .387
SLG: .481

SB: 13
CS: 5

by Qixotl on Feb 21, 2008 10:46 AM CST reply actions

Wow, Al -

That certainly is optimistic for a player who has barely seen MLB pitching, in his first year.

I hope you are right!

Wait 'til next year. And the next. And the Next. And the next after that too.

by TheEman on Feb 21, 2008 10:58 AM CST reply actions

I go off...

... the experiences of other Japanese players, who have seen their power drop, but other things stay the same. I don't see why Dome would be any different. If I were being wildly optimistic I'd be projecting 30 HR, but that's not realistic.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 21, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions

Fuk-u!

AB: 575
R: 88
H: 169
2B: 34
3B: 4
HR: 16
RBI: 82
BB: 64
SO: 101
AVG: .294
OBA: .364
SLG: .450

"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"

by The Ryno and I Know on Feb 21, 2008 11:14 AM CST reply actions

Fuku

AB: 582
R: 98
H: 176
2B: 42
3B: 3
HR: 21
RBI: 82
BB: 82
SO: 112
AVG: .302
OBA: .379
SLG: .465

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 21, 2008 11:15 AM CST reply actions

Dome-ay

I've got my #1 jersey ironed... ready to go hang out on Sheffield with the ballhawks.

AB: 611
R: 101
H: 181
2B: 36
3B: 9
HR: 26
RBI: 97
BB/HBP: 107
SO: 122
AVG: .296
OBA: .401
SLG: .512

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 21, 2008 1:21 PM CST reply actions

here it goes

AB: 591
R: 87
H: 170
2B: 46
3B: 5
HR: 22
RBI: 86
BB: 88
SO: 94
AVG: .388
OBA: .380
SLG: .494

And 18 assists to lead the NL edging out Francouer.

by socalbob on Feb 21, 2008 1:50 PM CST reply actions

BA...

... in the above projection should be .288, not .388. I assume that's a typo.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 21, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions

typo, yes

I glossed over it too quickly. Nice catch!

by socalbob on Feb 21, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions

Dome

I'm clueless on the power numbers, but I think he'll adjust quickly and have an excellent year.

PA: 580
AB: 510
R: 85
H: 153
2B: 30
3B: 6
HR: 10
RBI: 105 (assuming he bats 5th)
BB: 70
SO: 90
AVG: .300
OBA: .385
SLG: .441

SB: 23
CS: 5
OF-A: 18

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Feb 21, 2008 2:31 PM CST reply actions

Who knows?

AB: 500
R: 90
H: 140
2B: 35
3B: 5
HR: 18
RBI: 100
BB: 85
SO: 120
AVG: .280
OBA: .385
SLG: .472

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 21, 2008 2:38 PM CST reply actions

leads the team...

in strike outs. I hadn't noticed how much he struck out in Japan until doing this. His K% rates over the last years vary a bit (25%, 19%, 27%, 22%, 18% going backward), but using any of his years since the 2002 season as a basis puts his K totals for 2008 pretty high, assuming he gets the at bats his contract implies.

AB-580
R-82
H-177
2B-37
3B-2
BB-80
SO-140
HR-15
RBI-85
AVG-.305
OBP-.389
SLG-.453

by kranskie on Feb 21, 2008 2:48 PM CST reply actions

May Dome do well

AB: 575
R: 90
H: 173
2B: 40
3B: 5
HR: 20
RBI: 85
BB: 70
SO: 110
AVG: .301
OBA: .377
SLG: .492

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 21, 2008 3:00 PM CST reply actions

I'm still mulling my projection...

...but wanted to pass along this Paul Sullivan article from today's Trib. Sullivan notes that Dome faced live pitching for the first time, namely Les "I Am the Walrus" Walrond, Carmen "Have You Seen the Little Piggies?" Pignatiello and Jose "C.C. Pick Up That Guitar and Talk to Me" Ceda. Asked why he swung at only two pitches, Dome said:

"I was ready to swing at a strike, but I didn't see too many. That's why I just watched."

Oh, zing!

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by daver on Feb 21, 2008 3:06 PM CST reply actions

Welcome to The Fukudome!

AB: 587
R: 92
H: 177
2B: 38
3B: 2
HR: 23
RBI: 97
BB: 81
K: 99
Avg: .302
OBP: .386

by SamFels on Feb 21, 2008 4:57 PM CST reply actions

chanman25

G: 162
AB: 569
R: 86
H: 173
2b: 35
3b: 5
HR: 21
RBI: 90
SO: 119
BB: 86
AVG: .304
OBP: .405
SLG: .490

maybe I am too optimistic..

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 8:16 PM CST reply actions

BIG year for Kosuke!! The Beast from the East!!

AB: 560
PA: 648
R: 106
H: 177
1B: 110
2B: 41
3B: 5
BB: 88
SO: 96
HR: 21
RBI: 80
AVG: .316
OBP: .409
SLG: .538
OPS: 1.028
wOBA: .418
wBA: .334
RC: 119

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 21, 2008 8:28 PM CST reply actions

oops..

your OPS doesn't add up. OPS is OBP + slugging

by wojo on Feb 22, 2008 12:10 AM CST up reply actions

Dang spreadsheet.

I'll have to look at it again. Weird.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 22, 2008 7:49 AM CST up reply actions

Using information I found on SABRmetrics

that says

OBP*SLG is not the correct measure for a player because he usually doesn't drive himself in. Instead, you want to multiply his OBP by the team's SLG, and his SLG by the team's OBP. Since the league SLG(and individual teams' SLG) are usually about 1.2 times the OBP, each point of a player's OBP has 1.2 times the effect on OBP*SLG that a point of his SLG has. Thus our measure is (1.2*OBP)+SLG.

There's more but that's what I was using to figure OPS. May not be entirely correct but closer, I believe, than just OBP+SLG.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 23, 2008 8:42 AM CST up reply actions

While this is true...

... I'm trying to keep it simple here. Let's just use OBA+SLG to compute OPS.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions

Lineup

Lou stated on Cubs.com that there is a possibility that Fukudome will hit 3rd in the lineup. The lineup would be as followed:

Soriano
Theriot
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
DeRosa
Soto
Pie

hopefully, that is not the case.

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 8:34 PM CST reply actions

Fukudome

AB: 510
R: 75
H: 135
2B: 21
3B: 3
HR: 9
RBI: 60
BB: 30
SO: 45
AVG: .265
OBA: .323
SLG: .370

Never shows the power needed, but doesn't try to overswing for the fences and keeps down the strikeouts. Has the lowest GIDP ratio on the team of any starter.

by frustratedfan on Feb 22, 2008 11:19 AM CST reply actions

I think he'll start a little slow...

...but by July or August be one of the hottest hitters in the game. And I think the power does show, particularly later in the season when his discipline and conditioning really starts to pay dividends. Here goes:

AB: 550
R: 87
H: 160
2B: 38
3B: 5
BB/HBP: 75
SO: 104
HR: 21
RBI: 81
SB: 15
CS: 5
AVG: .290
OBP: .376
SLG: .493
OPS: .869

Maybe not rookie of the year numbers, but just what the Cubs were looking for -- lots of doubles, high OBP, and his patience at the plate rubs off on his teammates. His defense is every bit as good as billed, too.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by daver on Feb 22, 2008 3:06 PM CST reply actions

Fukudome vs Jacque Jones.....

will be a huge improvement from last season. We will all be pleasently surprised with the play of Fukudome. He will do all the little things that help the Cubs win. I like the fact to put him in the three hole. No more ground outs to second about 400 times.

by montecarlo on Feb 23, 2008 3:34 AM CST reply actions