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Baker and the Kids in Cincinnati

I happened to come across this article today on Yahoo about Dusty Baker and the Cincinnati Reds.

I think it's kind of funny how some things change (Dusty from the Cubs to the Reds) and some things stay the same (Dusty preferring a known, Norris Hopper, over a rookie, Jay Bruce).  Now, someone else with more time can probably list the reasons why this is crazy.

Then we have these two gems from the article.

"Who says they need to be eased in?" Baker said. "I wasn't eased in. Junior wasn't eased in. A whole bunch of guys weren't eased in. A lot of it has to do with need." "But what if you say, `Go play, kid,' and he's not ready to play winning baseball? Is it OK to overlook that? I don't know."

So with all that what do you think the over/under is for Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Bailey?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Does he have to start
every statement by answering a question with a question?  Oh yes, I forgot hes a dope.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 22, 2008 8:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

You know....
After reading that, I kind of feel sorry for the Reds.  Unfortunately for them, they get to savor the maddening frustration that is Dusty Baker.

by madmf on Feb 22, 2008 9:04 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I still think that Baker was a terrible hire...
Cincinnati has a chance to be a pretty solid team this year if they can integrate all their young talent. So who do you hire as a manager? Dusty Baker, Mr. Proven Veteran. Maybe Dusty will prove me wrong, but I have a feeling he won't utilize their young talent very well at all.

by mportsch on Feb 22, 2008 10:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think the key here
is for Jockety to get on the same page with Dusty in regards to what they need to do.

Jockety has been around the block and I am sure he understands Dusty's strengths and weaknesses.  Jockety could be a positive influence here if he can get Dusty to listen.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 22, 2008 10:08 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

The key is...
... that Jocketty has to tell Baker, in no uncertain terms, that he can't have "his guys", because that will hurt the Reds.

Now, as a Cubs fan, I'd love to see the Reds sign Neifi Perez, Rey Ordonez, Enrique Wilson, Tony Womack, and other useless players. Depends on how much influence Baker has.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 22, 2008 10:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I forget...
...did Jockety hire Baker?

Regardless, I don't see him as someone sitting idly by and giving Baker his typical wish list.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 22, 2008 10:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wayne Krivsky is GM ....
... and is the guy who hired Dusty.   Walt Jocketty has a "special advisor" role and reports to Krivsky, not the other way around.  

by MDBNIU on Feb 22, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

For now.
I'm guessing Krivsky will be out soon and Jocketty will be GM.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 22, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're wrong...
Wayne Krivsky has done a whale of a job turning around a dead franchise.   The minor league system is chocked full of good young talent, he's engineered solid trades and he's operated very well within the financial limitations of being a small market team.  The people I know in Cincinnati say the ownership group and the fans think he is doing a bang up job.  

Walt Jocketty was brought in as a placeholder and to serve as little more than a glorified scout.  Jocketty was dumped by St. Louis too late in the offseason game to land a GM spot elsewhere.   Krivsky is definitely the man in charge in Cincy.    

by MDBNIU on Feb 22, 2008 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
they didn't hire Jockety to be a special asst.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 22, 2008 11:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Classic...
"But what if you say, `Go play, kid,' and he's not ready to play winning baseball? Is it OK to overlook that? I don't know."

Um...it sure seemed OK for you to overlook in 2006 Dusty.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 22, 2008 10:50 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Im just glad
I don't have to listen to dusty on baseball tonight anymore...not only was he a bad manager, he's an even worse baseball analyst.

by cubsmania on Feb 22, 2008 10:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Ya know...
this is probably an even better point that anything else.  Cincinnati's hiring of him gets him off TV where we still have to hear him "analyze" baseball games.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Feb 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well...
I can't obsess about Dusty Baker anymore.  He's gone and the manager of our rival the Reds.   Let him do what he's going to do.  

But I'll say one thing.  History has, for the most part, validated Dusty's assessment of "can't miss" Cub positional prospects.  

by MDBNIU on Feb 22, 2008 10:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

This may be true
but, how much of his unwillingness to play the prospects made them falter.

It's one thing for an outside person to not see a prospect as "can't miss".  It's an entirely different thing for the manager to label a "can't miss" prospect as not ready and then stunt their growth by not playing them and letting them waste away on the bench.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Feb 22, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Puhlease
If a guy can play, there is no way anyone is going to "stunt their growth".  Is a real talent going to forget how to play the game because he had to sit on the bench awhile? I guess if Wally Pipp didn't get hurt the great Lou Gehrig's growth would have been "stunted" even more than it already had.

Using Norris Hopper as an example of how Baker doesn't like to play kids is a very poor example. Hooper has a grand total of 142 games of major league experience with a lifetime ave of .332. Can you blame Baker for not wanting to give him first shot?

Hope springs eternal.

by wicubfan on Feb 22, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Amen brother
Dusty was given dubious young positional talent during his four years in Chicago.   The only guy it can be argued he sorta stymied was Ryan Theriot.   And even in this case we are talking about a non-top prospect who was oldish and an overachiever.    

Last time I checked, Jason Dubois and Corey Patterson weren't even employed.

by MDBNIU on Feb 22, 2008 2:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

True, but
you can't get better if you don't play.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Feb 22, 2008 2:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Another amen
I didn't like Baker for a lot of reasons.  Stunting the growth of potential prospects is a non-existent charge.  

Most Cubs prospects were questionable well before they even got the majors.  Does anyone seriously think Jason Dubois was going to be star?  Matt Murton?  Well it appears that Piniella doesn't think much of him either.  Corey Patterson?  I think he got playing time.  Ryan Theriot?  Come on, how much better does anyone think he could be than what he is now?    

Name one position player that Baker didn't play and potentially damaged.  If someone wants to argue that he might damage Cueto or Bailey with overuse, I agree.  I just don't see the argument that he will stunt Bruce's growth by playing Norris Hopper.        

by rlpete on Feb 22, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

+1 (from the Reds MLB page)
Rookies or veterans? : Baker has been asked often this spring if he could envision starting young prospects like Votto or Bruce. Although known historically to have a preference of favoring veterans, Baker disputes the notion he doesn't want rookies.

"I think the only thing I haven't had as a manager, so far as players are concerned, is a Rookie of the Year, because I haven't had any," Baker said. "They got traded and I got the credit for not playing them, which was bull. There were a lot of rookies we traded because of the need to win now. It seemed like the philosophy."

Again, just utter garbage spewed towards Dusty.  He played vets because that's what he was given to work with.  And he had ZERO talented young players during his previous stops.  I'm very nervous with the Reds because when Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Bailey begin to dominate, and they will, Dusty is gonna shove it right in our face and there is nothing we can do about it because he will play the "hot" players.  And all 4 of those guys are top-flight players.

Don Baylor and Jim Hendry ruined Patterson.  Patterson should have never been promoted from AA.  Kerry Wood blew his arm out before Dusty.  Steve Stone even admitted he felt Kerry would go down with injury because of his mechanics--all before Dusty ever came to Chicago.

People just need to realize that everything is not Dusty's fault.

by socalbob on Feb 22, 2008 4:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to agree
I've lived in Maryland since 1990 and the only Cubs news i got was on Sportscenter or cubs.com so forgive me for my ignorance but i don't understand this hatred for Dusty.  Can someone please explain to me why everyone hates Dusty?  I'm not being a smart ass, i seriously don't understand and if someone could fill me in i would appreciate it.

by McRipper on Feb 22, 2008 4:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you'll hear
in-game strategy, lineups, playing useless players, and riding Wood and Prior too hard.

The only thing remotely worth discussing is how hard he rode Prior in Aug/Sept of 2005 when we were out of it, not 2003.

by socalbob on Feb 22, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So basically
he's getting the blame for Prior's and Wood's are problems?

by McRipper on Feb 22, 2008 4:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah
some of it, for sure.

by socalbob on Feb 22, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I see
Is it justifiable?

by McRipper on Feb 22, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

In a word....
...no
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 22, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Dusty was villianized in this town.  

by MDBNIU on Feb 22, 2008 9:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No??
No???  

Baker greatly over worked and over used Wood and Prior's arms.  You can argue that Baylor and the high school coach contributed to Wood's problems, but Prior is right at Baker's door.  The relationship between high pitch counts/pitcher abuse points and arm trouble is well established - particularly with young players.   While not abusing an arm does not necessarily mean no arm trouble and while abusing an arm does not necessarily mean arm trouble, the probabilities are certainly there.  

The usual "defense" of the Baker sycophants is to cite to Nolan Ryan or some other "exception" to the rule.  And that's about as valid as citing to the little old woman who is 103 and smokes 2 packs a day as proof that Cigarette Smoking is not dangerous.  

Baker is a very dangerous man to have on your team.  He will destroy your players.  (And he's not "good" at a clubhouse either unless you believe that a team with a "paranoid us against the world" attitude subdivided into camps is more likely to win

by frustratedfan on Feb 22, 2008 10:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll just say this...
...If I was a GM and I needed a manager, I would not hire Baker.

In saying this, I fully understand he has one of the best win/loss records of any manager over the last 12 years or so (you have to give him some credit for that).  I don't like his managing because he is a poor in-game strategist and IMO, a poor evaluator of players capabilities.

What you can't ignore with him, is the fact that players love to play for him.  With his record, that has clearly played a role in his team's successes.  What a GM needs to do, is keep Dusty away from hand picking players and making these decisions for him.

To me, the whole abuse thing with Prior and Wood is completely over-blown, and I still say the bulk of the blame for the Cubs downfall after 03 should go to Hendry.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 22, 2008 5:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting
Thanks for your input.  It sucks living so far away from "real" Cubs news and not the crap on Sportscenter and Cubs.com.  

by McRipper on Feb 22, 2008 5:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

For what's it worth
I follow the Cubs from just south of you in Virginia.

As for Baker, number 1 I think he is a terrible in-game manager.  Game 7 in 2003 was a prime example.  He was outmanaged by McKeon.  No way should he have given up the lead that easily with Wood.  Where was Clement?  McKeon went to Beckett, his best pitcher available.  Baker should have used Clement to hold the lead.  It was obvious Wood didn't have it.  

That said, people here do like to pile on Baker with every possible flaw.  I don't see the not playing rookies at least in Chicago.      

by rlpete on Feb 22, 2008 5:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for your input
It seems a bit harsh to me but i can't really say much because i don't really know that much about it.  What part of VA are you from?

by McRipper on Feb 22, 2008 5:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree on the game seven
debacle.  I have said many times, it was the single worst decision Dusty made in his years in Chicago.  You have no tomorrow, and you bring in Veres when you have Clement just sitting there.

Stupid, stupid, stupid!!!!

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 22, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Players love to play for him?
This keeps getting raised as a "benefit".  And yet during the Baker era did the Cubs see an appreciable uptick in the signing of the "front line" free agents?  No.  The Cubs saw an uptick in the signing of "crafty" (ie once good, now aging) veterans who like the fact that Baker didn't hold them responsible for bad play.  In fact, quite to the contrary, Baker would defend that kind of play.... assuming that you were a player that Baker liked.  And if you were a player that Baker did not like, you didn't get to play as much and were the "scapegoat".  

And the whole abuse issue, particularly with regard to Prior wasn't "overblown", it was understated.  Baker took a pitcher that was on track for an inner circle Hall of Fame career and destroyed him.  He took the Mona Lisa and put it out in the open sun and rain.  

by frustratedfan on Feb 22, 2008 10:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree
in regards to the Prior and Wodd issue, and I'll just leave that one at that.

Regarding players liking to play for him; I have heard this directly from a former player that played for Dusty and several other managers.  He said "Dusty creates a relaxed atmosphere where many players excel".  Now, there is a downside to that if you have no "player leadership" on the club, but with his long run of winning seasons, it seemed to workout fairly well for him.

Lastly, it is the GM's responsibility to choose the players and also to determine if the manager they hired knows how to pick the right ones.  If Hendry couldn't figure out this was not Dusty's strength, that's on him as GM.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 8:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Players Love to Play for Him?
No.  Some players, the ones that don't care about winning, like to play on his team because he doesn't punish them for failing to pay attention to fundamentals or otherwise play hard.   A good manager is going to challenge you and push you into winning.  Bobby Knight was a complete and total a--hole to his players.  And he got results far in excess of the talent on his teams.   Baker may well have been sweetness and light to the players in the locker room, but he also didn't get career seasons out of his players.   They were able to "relax".  And the "big name free agents" -- the guys who understand about being pushing to the maximum to win -- didn't want to play for Baker and the Cubs.

Baker is one of the worst managers in the history of baseball (if not the worst manager to have ever been given more than a few seasons) and anyone who thinks that Baker is even competent should have their credentials to go to baseball games revoked.

Thank goodness he's with the Reds.  They won't contend for at least two years after he's gone.  (And let's see how long Griffey, Jr, who understands about winning baseball, puts up with Baker in the Clubhouse.  My guess is that by the middle of the season he has given them a him or me ultimatum.)

by frustratedfan on Feb 23, 2008 10:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Can you explain
Dusty's career managerial winning percentage being up there with LaRussa, Scioscia, Torre and Leyland?

Don't tell me, he had a 12 year run of pure luck before he had two bad seasons, right?  It had nothing to do with pitching injuries and a GM that failed at obtaining the right players.

Torre had a losing managerial record before he got to a team (Yankees) that spent whatever it took to get him the best.  Did he all of a sudden become the best manager in baseball?  I don't think so, and it is the same regarding Dusty not all of a sudden becoming one of the worst managers in baseball.

Again, would I hire Dusty?  No I would not, but to say he is one of the worst with his LONG tenure of winning, is absolute ignorance in understanding the game.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.
Baker had the best player in the history of the game at the peak of his career and an owner with deep pockets in SF.   He had outstanding players and a very big payroll.  And he still didn't win the World Series.   In Chicago he once again had a very big budget and he had a number of very good players (including Prior who was destroyed by Baker).   Did he "win" with those teams, sure. And so would a number of other lousy managers.   But they underperformed and did not win the big one.  

This is really the difference between people who superficially evaluate pitchers based, for example, solely on win loss records or managers on their winning record.  In the case of Baker, I opened up my eyes, saw what he did with the players on the team and how they played.

Baker is bad in game day decisions.
Baker is bad at selecting talent, playing a veteran at every case over a rookie.
Baker is bad at pitching staff management, destroying great young pitcher arms with abuse.
Baker is bad with the media, creating an attitude of hostility.
Baker is bad in the clubhouse creating extreme clique-ness and allowing the "superstars" to run roughshod over the team.

The only thing that Baker appears to be "good at" is creating a pressure free atmosphere for the select players that he has chosen to favor.  

He's a lousy manager.   The worst manager in the history of baseball with more than 4 seasons of managing (Ted Williams only managed for three seasons.... thus the caveat)

by frustratedfan on Feb 23, 2008 1:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Strongly disagree
that Baker's teams underperformed in Frisco and if you take a hard look at the rosters, they were not loaded with high priced FA's like a Yankees or Red Sox.

Sure, he had Bonds, but we have seen time and time again, you need a hell of a lot more than one great player to win anything in baseball.

I agree he is not a good in game manager and is not an objective evaluator of talent, but there ain't no way he won for as long as he did simply because he had the best players, because he didn't.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 1:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you are absolutely wrong
Robb Nen is a personal friend and loved playing for Dusty.  Absolutley loved it.  All the players felt this way according to Robb.  Why do you think Nen continued pitching with a shredded arm through Aug/Sept and the post-season.  He didn't want to let Dusty and his team down.  These are the words spoken from his own mouth.

The thing you are completley unaware of is Dusty played the game at a high level just like these guys are doing.  He knows their plight and can relate better than most.  It has nothing to do with free agents flocking to a team.  It's about the team you have liking to play for a guy.

Your statement is just wrong.

by socalbob on Feb 23, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Baker
Dusty Baker was a very very good player who got a chance to play when very young.  Dusty Baker the manager would have hated Dusty Baker the player and vice versa.  

by frustratedfan on Feb 23, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Beyond this...
... Dusty Baker the player was a fairly patient hitter (lifetime OBA .347). One wonders whether Baker the manager would have advised Baker the player to "hack away" so he wouldn't "clog up the bases" by walking, as he did 762 times in his career.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 23, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Baker the Player
if Baker the manger reflected Baker the player he would have been a very good manager.  The problem is that Baker the manager reflects the fact that Baker the person just isn't very bright and reacts the way that not-smart people react.

by frustratedfan on Feb 23, 2008 1:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to say this....
...and I believe Lou has as well; being a high OBP team is about the players you have not the manager.  By the time a player makes it to the major league level, being agressive or patient as a hitter has been established and rarely changes.

For example; if you look at the last five years Dusty was in Frisco, his teams finished in this order in regards to OBP compared to other NL teams:

2nd
3rd
1st
3rd
1st

Doesn't sound like his swing away mentality had much of a negative impact with those guys, did it?

Bottom line, the Cubs have been terrible in OBP more because of Hendry's philosophy as opposed to Baker.  Remember, Hendry ran the farm from 95 to 02 and has been GM since that time.  Baker made some bad strategic decisions as manager of the Cubs, but this blame for poor OBP and ruining Prior and Wood is really off the charts.  Look at the guy who has been with the organization since 95, and you will have your answer for poor OBP an also lack of position player development.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Do this.
Take Barry Bonds out of the Giants' OBP calculations and then see where they rank. Examples:
  1. Bonds led Giants with 198 BB. Next on the team is J. T. Snow, 59.
  2. Bonds led Giants with 177 BB. Next on the team is Jeff Kent, 65.
  3. Bonds led Giants with 109 BB. Kent had 90.
  4. Snow led with 86. Bonds had 73. Bonds also missed significant time on the DL that year.
  5. Bonds led Giants with 130 BB. Next on the team was Bill Mueller with 79.
I think you see the point here. Most of that apparent OBA leadership was due to Bonds. In 2002, the Giants' pennant year, he drew 32.1% of all SF walks. I haven't checked, but I'm guessing that's close to a record.

By contrast, in 2006, when the hackalicious Cubs were at their worst, the leader in walks was Aramis Ramirez, who had 50. That was 12.7% of the team's horrid total of 395.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 23, 2008 5:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Al....
...do you seriously think that all the Cub hitters changed their approach at the plate when Dusty arrived?

Hitters are pretty much set in their ways in regards to their level of patience when they get to the show, and Lou made a point of this as well late last year when asked about the Cubs needing a more patient approach at the plate.

Whether your club is doing well in regards to OBP, is going to be a reflexion of the types of players you sign, draft and develop, not the manager.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 5:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Furthermore
you need to take a look at the 2 hitters Baker would have had the longest influence on with the Cubs; DLee and Ramirez.  Both of those guys had the OBP go way up since being with the Cubs.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 5:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

About Lee and Ramirez...
... Lee's OBA his first year with the Cubs was LOWER than his previous two seasons with the Marlins. The increase in OBA for him is almost entirely attributable to his jump in batting average.

Ramirez' OBA's are good, but they've hardly "jumped" since he became a Cub. His Cub OBA's are pretty similar to the .350 he put up in his one good year in Pittsburgh (2001).

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 23, 2008 5:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The stats show me
that Ramirez and Lee had a nice jump in their OBP since coming to the Cubs.  Because Lee's is driven by his batting average certainly doesn't make it less noteworthy.

Anyway, my point is this; Managers have little impact in regards to affecting their overall team OBP.  This is driven by the types of players the GM signs, drafting philosophies, scouting and minor league player development.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 24, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps you should hear it from the man himself
_Baker has repeatedly talked about the desire to have a do-it-all leadoff hitter with speed. What kinds of hitters is he looking for further down the lineup? Does he want guys with lofty on-base percentages? The answer will likely not sit well with fans of the book "Moneyball," because Baker said he believes the OBP statistic is overvalued.

"I'm big on driving in runs and scoring runs," Baker said. "Guys in the middle should score about close to equal to what they drive in. On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control.

"What you do is run the pitcher's count up, that helps," Baker said. "You put him in the stretch, that helps. But your job in the middle is to either score them or drive them in. The name of the game is scoring runs. Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases." _

Source article is here.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 24, 2008 1:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's great
and I happen to agree that the guys in the middle of the order should be guys that hurt you with their bat, as opposed to the base on balls.  At the top of the order, it is a completely different story.

What Baker or anyone else says does not change my basic premise:

Mangers have little impact on the overall OBP of their club.  Lou mentioned this repeatedly last year when the topic was brought up by the media.  His reaction (and I paraphrase) was something like this; "if you want high obp guys, you sign them in the offseason, because you hitters are who they are for the most part".

In general, I just think the average fan is completely missing the boat by blaming the last few years on Baker.  Hendry was the guy running the farm (since 95) and the GM since 02, and folks need to take a hard look at the clubs record of drafting, organizational development, philosophy of skill assessment etc., before they point the finger at a guy who won't be in a position to have much impact on changing a player's tendancies.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 24, 2008 2:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So, on your account,
Should a manager be fired if a team performs poorly on offense?
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 24, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That depends on the circumstances
if a team is performing poorly offensively because the manager is putting a lineup together that makes no sense, or is stealing bases (with little success) when he shouldn't be, yes.

On the other hand, you can't hold a manager responsible for a teams offensive performance if the GM has not given him a balanced offense.  

Did people like Baker in 03? For the most part probabably yes.  Did they like him in 04, 05 or 06? Probabably not.  With that said, I ask a simple question, what was the biggest difference between the 03 club and the next three years?

Healthy starting pitching
Table setters at 1 and 2

Now, I realize there wasn't much anyone could do about the pitching injuries (for the most part), but what about the lack of table setters at the 1 and 2 holes?  The 3,4 and 5 hitters for the Cubs were pretty strong during that stretch, but they didn't get enouph RBI opportunities because of what was happening at the top of the order, and it is the GM's responsibility to recognize such an obvious hole.

I don't buy the excuse that Hendry simply listened to Baker.  If Hendry could not recognize such an obvious problem, and see Patterson, Niefi and the like were not the answer, he should have taken matters into his own hands as the person responsible for the roster.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 24, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball players don't grow on trees
and Hendry can't just "go out and get someone." its the manager's job to make the best use of the players he has and Dusty simply did not do that. Furthermore, there's two people who could've done something about pitcher injuries: one, Dusty, who's been widely and exhaustively castigated on this topic and in this thread, and another who;s gotten a pass here but deserves much of th heat, one Larry Rothschild. Baker and Rothschild screwed up the post-03 Cubs. Hendry now has to pick up the pieces. Thank God he's got Lou to help and not an enabler and a malcontent like Baker.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 24, 2008 4:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand
and am simply stating that a flawed talent evaluation philosophy (from Hendry) is the number one reason the Cubs have been poor in the OBP category.  In fact, if have listened to Hendry over the years, he has been a big proponent of the free swinging mentality and it shows up in how the Cubs have evluated talent.

There is a reason the Cubs have produced next to nothing in regards to position players during Hendry's entire tenure of involvement (either running the minor leagues or as GM) and it amazes me that this 15+ year drought flys under the radar.

It is much easier to have some luck with pitching, because guys with great arms are much more likely to have success at the big league level.  With hitters, it requires a mindset and evaluation capability that goes beyond putting check marks next to the five-tool category.  Baseball has been loaded with athletes who can't hit major league pitching, but look great in their uniforms.  The organizations who have had long term success, are the ones that do a good job at recognizing who will have success (as a hitter) at the major league level.

Hendry has spent a lot of money during his GM tenure.  Some of that money has been wasted and some of it has been well spent, but you can't have sustained success without knowing how to produce some good major league position players.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 24, 2008 4:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

BTW, please excuse me
the "average fan," for viewing the game in such an impoverished light as to think people need to endeavor to get on base, regardless of their position in the batting order and regardless of the means by which the endeavor to get there. I am but a lowly fan; what have I to offer?
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 24, 2008 3:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you...
... that Hendry is partly to blame here. However, look at these numbers from the last ten years (team OBA and league rank):
  1. .335 (7th)
  2. .327 (14th)
  3. .335 (11th)
  4. .336 (6th, tie)
  5. .321 (14th, tie)
  6. .323 (13th)
  7. .328 (11th)
  8. .324 (11th)
  9. .319 (16th)
  10. .333 (10th)
I assert it is no coincidence that the 2003-2006 rankings are so low. The 2003 and 2004 teams were FAR better teams than the 1999 and 2000 teams, yet finished near or at the same OBA level. That makes no sense.

And, the team OBA jumped in Lou's first year. Coincidence? I say no.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 23, 2008 5:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Baker.....
Our Cub teams got progressively worse every year that he was here. There was no fundamental baesball played, and mental mistakes were there on a daily basis with no accountability. It just made me sick.

And, oh yeah, I also blame him for Steve Stone leaving.

Hey Lou, we're long overdue.

by deadcatbounce on Feb 23, 2008 8:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Steve Stone leaving.....
...was a self-inflicted issue from Stoney himself, but the public knows little of what transpired over time.

I do think you can make an argument that Dusty is partly responsible for global warming.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 8:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL......
Yes, I forgot to blame him for global warming.....

I don't suppose you could shed some light on the Stoney issue??

Hey Lou, we're long overdue.

by deadcatbounce on Feb 23, 2008 7:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dusty, Dusty Baker
Leader of the new found Reds. Dusty, Dusty Baker, will let his team wear dreads. Dusty Dusty Baker, leader of the last place Reds. Dusty Dusty Baker will never play the keds.
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 22, 2008 11:06 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I refuse to read Dusty stuff anymore....
...not being mean spirited here, just can't stand the guy.  Unless it's directly related to the Cubs I'd rather ignore him.

by DudeVf11 on Feb 22, 2008 1:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

baker
im probably in the minority here in thinking dusty will make a diference with cincy.he took us to the playoffs his 1st year with the cubs.the longer he,s around the more his flaws show up.he,s won a lot of games and you cant discount that.they must be in a frenzy over there at fire dusty.com

by NOMAR on Feb 23, 2008 4:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dusty
I feel the Reds will be better this year, Dusty will have that first year run, and have them playing good ball, win the division NO, but they will win 79-82 games. Just my hunch.
 Now, I don't care for him as a manager also, his clubhouse is loose, for what I have read and heard, his decisions on the field are horrible, and IMO he fried Prior in the summer of 03.
 I remember when the Marlins got back in the game in game 7 and he brought Dave Veres in, I sat at the TV in disbelief, just numb. Sort of like ( I am a Cleveland Browns fan) when Earnest Byner fumbled on the 3yard line in Denver in the AFC championship, couldn't move, stunded.
 I just wished the Cubs had the young offensive talent the Reds have.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Feb 23, 2008 8:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dusty
I feel the Reds will be better this year, Dusty will have that first year run, and have them playing good ball, win the division NO, but they will win 79-82 games. Just my hunch.
 Now, I don't care for him as a manager also, his clubhouse is loose, for what I have read and heard, his decisions on the field are horrible, and IMO he fried Prior in the summer of 03.
 I remember when the Marlins got back in the game in game 7 and he brought Dave Veres in, I sat at the TV in disbelief, just numb. Sort of like ( I am a Cleveland Browns fan) when Earnest Byner fumbled on the 3yard line in Denver in the AFC championship, couldn't move, stunded.
 I just wished the Cubs had the young offensive talent the Reds have.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Feb 23, 2008 8:55 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Baker did not overuse Prior
Prior's breakdown is because Prior just wasn't meant to be a pitcher, over the long haul, period. I invite people to look at these links and where all these pitchers were at either there second season or age 22-23, then what happens to the rest of their careers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/priorma01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/drysddo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jenkife01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maricju01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gibsobo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/seaveto01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/blylebe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/suttodo01.shtml

Just to name a few. Prior wasn't overused. He just didn't have what it takes.

Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Feb 23, 2008 9:26 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

auughh
"...were at either there second season...."

their

I hate it when I do that.

Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Feb 23, 2008 9:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

100% agree
Some of these guys were pitching 300+.  That's unheard of.  Prior was doomed.

by McRipper on Feb 23, 2008 9:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Citing Exceptions
doesn't prove the rule.   Your argument is exactly the argument that the supporters of smoking made in the 1960's.  Look, Grandma X is 103 and smokes 2 packs a day.  That proves that the claims that smoking is bad for you are just wrong.  

For every Bob Gibson, there are many other pitchers that had greatly forshortened careers.  Some we have heard of, some we have not, because their careers got cut so short that they never had the chance to show their stuff.  

by frustratedfan on Feb 23, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

These aren't exceptions....
.... this was once the rule. If Prior can't handle 211 inninga at the young stud age of 22, no matter what era he pitches in, then he simply wasn't cut out to be a major league pitcher over the long haul. His manager could have been Baker, Connie Mack or Joe Torre, he was going to break down.
Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Feb 23, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said
n/t
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 23, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Moreover
Look at Carlos Zambrano's stats. He actually pitched three more innings than Prior and Wood (both at 211) in 2003. He's still going strong. Why? Because physically, he's cut out for the job. The other two guys, not so much. At least Wood has sense enough to finally acknowledge his limitations.
Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Feb 23, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the only issue
I have is how hard Prior was rode during 2005, not 2003.  He did not need to have 120+ pitch outings in September after going through all his previous issues.

The rest of people complaining about 2003 would have done the same damn thing with Prior and Wood as the Cubs were trying to get to the World Series.

Nice post BeerCub.

by socalbob on Feb 23, 2008 11:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

post from "GuyinNY"
This is from Sickels site and GuyinNY arguing over how Prior was not abused, but rather needed down the stretch of 2003 when the other poster in the debate has taken the stance that Dusty left Prior out on the hill too long during the stretch run.

I thought this is solid research and should put to rest any of crap about Prior and 2003.

From Guyin NY:

Mark Prior, in his final starts of the season, WAS providing NECESSARY bullpen relief on September 1, 6, 11, 16, 21, 27.  In other words, in EVERY September start which Mark Prior made, he was taking the mound with the knowledge that he had a depleted bullpen which had been heavily taxed the night before.  Moreover, as an ace, Prior had to play the role of the stopper.  He did this successfully, recording wins the day after a loss on the 1st, and more importantly, the 21st and the 27th. As you look deeper, it becomes very clear that Mark Prior was living up to his billing as an ace down the stretch of the 2003 season as the Cubs made their run.

Prior's 9/1 start sees him go deep in preparation of a double header the next day.  His  9/6 start rested Borowski, Farnsworth and Alfonseca (used the day before) by allowing Baker to use "only" Veres and Remlinger.  On 9/10, Matt Clement gave only 5 IP.  The next day Mark Prior stepped in and  took the ball for 5 2/3's gutty IP (yes, there's a diff.  Prior had to have his PC run up so that he could give as much as possible to rest the pen, which was pretty battered.)  On 9/16, after a solid Matt Clement start, Prior provides further rest for a tired pen (check the previous games until Z's SH on 9/14) by giving 8 2/3's strong innings.  After Clement gets obliterated on the 20th, Prior steps in for a great start on the 21st and goes deep (7.2) to rest an obviously tired pen (Clement had only gone 3 the day before).  On the 27th, after an off day and coming off another key loss (in which Z only went 5 and Baker had to use most of the pen), Mark Prior stepped in and LIKE AN ACE goes 6 2/3's dominating IP (10 K's) to right the ship (enough cliches for you? :) ).  

The picture that's painted is a pretty simple one, and that is Mark Prior rising to the occasion and blossoming into an ace during the heat of a pennant race just as his club needed him most.   Remember, Prior's contributions are two fold : the deeper he goes in every start, the better rested the pen is in case of a poor outing AND with every strong start, Baker has reason to leave the best pitcher in the NL in to solidify a win.  Lesson?  It's hard to pull the best pitcher in the league when he's on fire and the title starved team's in the thick of a pennant race.

I hope this is enough for you, as you can see that Prior was doing his job and his performances were necessary in context.  Please remember one other thing that is sorely forgotten on a prospect site such as this.  Young pitchers are groomed in the hope that maybe, someday, they will be able to do what Mark Prior did for the 2003 Chicago Cubs.  He pushed them into the playoffs, and if it hadn't been for Steve Bartman, he likely would have pushed them into the World Series.  He was billed as an ace, and he lived up to that billing.

by socalbob on Feb 23, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

please note
GuyinNY is a HUGE Yankees fan.

by socalbob on Feb 23, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well
 its annoying when you make a pretty good point in defense of Baker....because I dont like him.

The point about Bartman....you make the point about how Prior was big down the stretch and getting really really strong.  If Alou makes that catch Prior wins and probably goes on to win 1 or 2 in the WS because I dont think the Cubs would lose the WS if they got in (Tear) My point--if not for Bartman (or other nearby fans) we would all have blind love for Mark Prior and Dusty Baker---as it stands today most of us have them on our most hated list.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 24, 2008 2:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re:
I totally understand where you are coming from.  It was time for Baker to go, but he catches more flack than deserved.

by socalbob on Feb 24, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus....
...somebody in this thread said Baker took a Hall of Fame career and screwed it up. So, I picked comparable to a young Prior type Hall of Fame right pitchers. The claim was made he was on his way to being an exception (HOF). Sadly, no he wasn't.

And please, like others, I'm no Baker fan. The echoes of my screaming can still be heard over Games 6 and 7 and his bad decisions. But no way is he responsible for Prior and Wood's declines. Only nature.

Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Feb 23, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It may not prove it
But you state that Baker destroyed Prior.  There are numerous other possibilities but stating as  fact that Baker destroyed an inner circle HOF'er is just a bit over the top.  

by rlpete on Feb 23, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This just in
Dusty Baker caused the crash of the Stealth jet.  I was wrong, he really is evil incarnate.  First he caused the destruction of every Cubs prospect in the past 10 years now he's moving on to destroying the country.  

by rlpete on Feb 23, 2008 9:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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