Beating a Dead Horse

by louslovechild on Feb 25, 2008 12:35 AM CST Comment 27 comments

I am aware that I have posted here before about the dire need for pitching help, but I just cannot seem to get over this. I have watched so called title teams base their years on run production, and hope mediocre pitching will get them through. Well this team is based on mediocre pitching and above average offense.

Please do not yell at me about what I characterizing as mediocre pitching; personally I feel that the trio of Z, Lilly and Hill are the third or fourth best "top three" in baseball (behind AZ, NYM, and Boston), but the drop off after that is a complete joke. And due to Lilly and HIll being southpaws, we have to split them up.

So I am stealing from MLBTR a list of names that, most of which, would be better fit in the 3 slot than Lieber, Dempster, and Marquis.

Freddy Garcia (32) - Type B
Kyle Lohse (29)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Eric Milton (32)
John Thomson (34)
Jeff Weaver (31)
David Wells (45)

I took out Clemens, he is done. Russ Ortiz, no comment needed. The remaining pitchers are, in my very humble opinion, worth a look. Personally, Rodrigo Lopez is a valuable commodity. He pitched in the AL east during 2005 and 2006, put up quality numbers, and probably could be had for a minor-league deal at this point.

I am aware that this team is good enough to get the through the NL-Central, but when you get to play the Pirates, Reds, and Astros 16+ times a season, that is not something to be to over zealous about. We, as fans, deserve more than the "Catastrophe among the Cacti" in October. Pitching wins; that is a fact. We can ask the Yankees how they have enjoyed all of those big bats these last 8 years.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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kyle lohse is an awesome pitcher

Unfortunately, this "awesomeness" only manifests when he starts against the cubs.

by Thelonious on Feb 25, 2008 2:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Um.

There's absolutely nothing quality about Rodrigo Lopez's 5.90 ERA in 2006; his 4.90 in 2005 doesn't scream quality either. There's a reason he's available on a minor-league deal.

I could go on, but I won't. All of those guys are mediocre, and to say that any of them are provably better than Marquis or Lieber is laughable.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 25, 2008 3:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

are you sure we couldn't use Wells?

As the old saying goes, you can never have too many middle-aged, abrasive, drunken, fat men on your team.

Maybe I'm mistaking baseball for community league slow pitch softball?

by Thelonious on Feb 25, 2008 3:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I fit that

description. Maybe I do have a future in baseball.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 25, 2008 7:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If True, ....

the Cubs entire roster could be easily filled with volunteers from the Bleachers.

If It Takes Forever ....

by wrigley1 on Feb 25, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Milton and Wells

are lefthanded, which would sort of defeat your purpose of breaking up the left-handers, no?

And I'd rather have Sean Gallagher or Kevin Hart in the rotation than any of the guys you mention.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on Feb 25, 2008 3:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Re: "Pitching wins; that is a fact."

You're missing a word there. I think what you meant to say is - "Good pitching wins; that is a fact."

Come back when you've found some and then we'll talk.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Feb 25, 2008 3:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

"Please do not yell at me"

Are you politely asking everyone to not disagree with you here? If so, then what's the point of making your assertion?

I don't think any of those guys look better than what we have. I think the competition between Lieber, Dempster, Marquis, Gallagher and Marshall could spark a couple of them to live up to their individual upsides (Lieber and Gallagher especially -- although Gallagher seems destined to leave if Hendry makes a roster tweaking of the more significant variety in the near term).

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Feb 25, 2008 4:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

None of those guys...

is markedly better than the #4 and #5 starters we have. They're all #4 or #5 (or worse) starters. And some of those guys are LHP, which defeats your purpose of putting Hill in the #4 spot to break up the LHP. Garcia is the only guy on the list with any history of being more than a #4 or #5 guy, but that was years ago, and I believe that there are serious injury and performance concerns with him moving forward.

Furthermore, I disagree that it is our #4 and #5 starters that are the concern. I don't think we have the fourth best top three in baseball. I'd say that Cleveland (due to Sabathia and Carmona), Atlanta (due to Smoltz and Hudson), both LAs (Lackey, Escobar, Weaver; Penny, Lowe, Billingsley), San Diego (Peavy, Young, Maddux), and Toronto (Halladay, Burnett, McGowan) have better top three starters. And all of those teams certainly have the better top two starters, along with the teams you mentioned before. So we have the 10th-best top three in baseball. That's above average, but not great.

We actually have a better set of #4 and #5 starters than almost anybody in baseball. The problem is that those guys become irrelevant if you make the postseason. Assuming we make the playoffs (which is a big assumption), success is largely based on your "big two" or "big three." And since we don't match up with other elite teams' "big two" or "big three," we're not in great shape.

by SouthernCub on Feb 25, 2008 6:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Tampa Bay

Don't laugh. They're going to have one of the best top 3s in baseball over the next several years. Their three best starters have a legitimate chance to be better than the Cubs three best in 2008, and I'd put money on it for 2009. Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price should be filthy, and other prospects like Wade Davis, Jacob McGee and Jeremy Hellickson should make solid pitching a virtually assured commodity for the next 5 years in Tampa Bay.

by Thelonious on Feb 25, 2008 7:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

David price could be better than all of them...

I don't know if you follow college baseball but any dude that strikes out 194 in 133.1 innings in the SEC is nasty.

I don't know if they will be better than the Cubs, but I do agree that staff if they keep them all will be very very good in a few years

by dus22 on Feb 25, 2008 9:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Right now...

... we have 7 starters for 5 open slots in the rotation. I think it's safe to say that the Cubs aren't in the market for any additional help in that area.

by kanderber on Feb 25, 2008 7:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

You can never have too much starting pitching

Unfortunately none of those names IMHO provide too much starting pitching.

I'll pass...

by blackhawk24 on Feb 25, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

there was that whole

2nd best ERA in the NL last year and all. that can be improved also if marquis is out of the equation, rich hill could show further development, kerry wood and marmol for a full year in the bullpen, i think our pitching will be fine.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 7:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

theres also the fact

that if we had any of those guys you mentioned slotted into the 4 and 5 spots, wed have about ten more diaries covering this same topic, clamoring for more pitching help. rarely is a team going to be completely satisfied with its pitching staff, this is what makes pitching such a hot commodity.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 7:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

There's not a single name...

... on that list who I think is better than anyone we already have. Eric Milton? The HR king? No way. Steer clear of these losers. There's a reason all of them are still free agents.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 8:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Freddy Garcia

is very good when healthy. He's waiting to be healthy to sign later in the year. So, we can talk about him later.

The others, frankly, I hope get signed by NL Central opponents.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 25, 2008 9:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed with majority

and I also agree with the originator of this diary, atleast that the Cubs could improve their rotation, but not by adding any of the names mentioned.

I'm trying to remain optimistic about this area of the Cubs and that they will address this need at the trade deadline. For that to happen though, some of the Cubs middle tiered prospects, need to have good 1st halves and increase their trade value.

It's safe to say they won't add any more pitchers before then, so take a deep breath and relax.

Lemon20Pie's 2008 PECOTA for Rich Hill: 204 IP 30 HR 75 BB 180 SO 1.35 WHIP 4.25 ERA

by lemon20pie on Feb 25, 2008 9:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Based On What's Available Now...

... we are fine.

I stress the word "now". I do believe we need to make a trade by 7/31/2008 in order to "get us to the dance".

Jacque Jones is gone and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!

by initram on Feb 25, 2008 9:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

great sig!....

Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Feb 25, 2008 10:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe no one has posted this here.

So I will:

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 10:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Biggest concern

Biggest concern is the starting rotation. No doubt about it. I feel only so-so about our starting pitching. Rich Hill and Ryan Dempster are the wildcards. Hill needs to at least hold steady and Dempster needs to make the successful transition to pitching every 5th day.

A significant injury to Zambrano or Lilly would be devastating. We don't have the quality or depth to semi-absorb such a loss.

by MDBNIU on Feb 25, 2008 10:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm holding hope

that Hill progresses, Z is "on" and Lilly overcomes his last playoff experience. Those are the three in a short series we have to hope for. I also hold hope that our bullpen is the best in the NL and Leiber can muster enough from his experience to be a strong #4. Lastly maybe Dempster catches lightning in a bottle. Sounds like a lot of "ifs" to me. I can hope but would rather have a stronger #2 to insure winning a best of five series. We may all have to wait until summer to see how this shakes out and whether we can pick up that starter as a rental for the stetch run/playoffs. For now, hope is all we can do.

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Feb 25, 2008 11:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The Rotation is in very good shape

I have no worries at all about it. Zambrano era was 3.95 last year because he had a horrible fluke month in August. He had the worst month of his career era wise with a 7.06 era. That was the month he just signed the contract, so I think some things got to him mentally that he fixed in September. If you take that September away Zambrano era is in the 3.40s just like what it was in 06. So I personally have no reason to believe Zambrano won't bounce back next year.

Rich Hill is only gonna get better im my opinion, Lilly might not be as good but he's going to be a quality number 3 still. Lieber should have a spot locked down already, and if healthy he will be fine as the number 4. Jason Marquis is a innings eater and has been a good 3-4 starter 3 of the last four years. Sean Marshall has proven over the last two years he could at least be a solid 3-5 starter for half of the season. Ryan Dempster is questionable, but the guy has the talent to be a good starter if the throws strikes, and is working his butt off get himself in great shape to do it. Then we got guys in Gallagher/ Hart would could easily step in and probably pitch well in the rotation. In all honestly I think we have a starter too many right now, and either Marshall or Marquis are going to be traded by opening day. Because were not gonna put two starters in the pen, and I don't see them putting Marshall back in Triple A after what he did last year. The 4/5 spot last had a year of 4.60 and 5.10 and we had the second best rotation in the NL. Do you really think it's gonna be alot worse this year with all the options we have? I can't see that at all and I'll be shocked. Some think it was 4-5 years ago or something, and think you can't have 2 4.50-5 era pitchers in your rotation for it to be good. But in fact in the game today everyone has two of those guys in their rotation, and sometimes two 5 era plus guys.

I'm more worried about this teams offense then pitching right now. We still need to add a RH hitter who hits LH pitching well to platoon with Pie. We also need a another HIGH OBP guy after Soriano. With Theriot currently batting there the Cubs need him to at least have a 30 point higher OBP then last year. Or they need to move DeRosa into that spot.

by cubsfan25 on Feb 25, 2008 11:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

This is what I am talking about

The basis of your statements, Hill will get better, Marshall could..., Gallagher and Hart possibly, maybe could..... All that is fine with me, as long as everyone on here is willing to be disappointed come October. If those guys were so great, why were we signing Trachsel to a deal in September? If you think over the last 5 months these guys became MLB ready, you are kidding yourself. Hart pitched 1/3 of a season in the pen. Gallagher showed glimpses of being able to pitch at this level, but only glimpses.

This team is built to win now. We are not a young, up and coming group. These are proven veterans who will, before you know it, be on the decline. The average age of our outfield is a bit below 30, and that includes a 23 year old CF. Pitching wins. If we had another quality arm in that rotation, instead of a bunch of #5's and #6's, we could walk our way into the playoffs. I'm not saying Santana or Harden (who I actually think we could have had), I am talking about a solid #3.

We are talking about the opportunity to go the playoffs for the 2 consecutive seasons, something that hasnt been done since.....I dont know when, and the best we can do, the best freakin option we have is to try and re-create 2001 with Ryan Dempster? We bring back the last guy who won 20 games for the Cubs, when Felix Pie still wasn't old enough to drive? Oh, and my personal favorite, we once again trot out Jason Marquis. We left him off the playoff roster and yet we feel that he is the answer to our problems somehow?

Please do not tell me that this is the best we could do. Please do not tell me that our best option is either a guy who has a bum foot, a guy trying to relive his glory days as a starter, or a guy who was on 2 consecutive playoff teams yet failed to make the post season rosters. I am not buying it. I will say it 1 more time; PITCHING WINS. You could draw the line-up out of a hat everyday, as long as you put quality pitching on the mound, you will win ball-games.

by louslovechild on Feb 25, 2008 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So you think

adding another number 3 pitcher will be that much better then the guys we have? Wasn't Rich Hill already a number 3 last year? Don't talented pitchers improve off their first full year? Lilly pitched like a number two last year, and probably at worse will pitch like a number 3 this year. Zambrano is very good and he will bounce back, infact take away August when he had the contract stuff going on and his era is right were it was in 06.

You bash the options we have, but are they really so bad? You honestly think we can't get one quality starter from this group and one serviceable guy?

Jason Marquis-68-61, 4.56 era career, 3-4 starter 3 of the last four years.

Jon Lieber-129-121, 4.28 era career, has been a solid 3-4 starter from 04-07, and was a number two for a few years before that. His foot is 100 percent healthy now.

Ryan Dempster-52-58, 4.99 era career as SP. But was ages 21-25 last time he was a full-time starter in the big leagues.

Sean Marshall-13-17, 4.83 era career as SP. But was 7-8, 3.92 era in the majors. 3-0 with in low 2's in five starts in the minors last year. His career minor league 17-15, with a 2.63 era.

Sean Gallagher was 21 last year. He is 36-15, with a 2.75 era career in the minor leagues.

Name me three times in the NL who have better 4-5 options then us? I bet you can't thats because our situation is pretty darn good actually. To think Gallagher or any other young pitcher can't come up midseason and pitch great is also silly. Would the Rockies have gone to the WS last year if Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales or Manny Corpes didn't get called up during the season? Jon Lester looked just fine pitching in the WS for the Red Sox last year as well.

I agree that you need good pitching to win, but the reason we lost to the Diamondbacks last year was because of poor hitting. We had so many base runners against the D-backs and scored a total of 2 runs in games 1 and 3. It's pretty hard to win no matter how good the pitching is when you score 1 run in game one and 1 run in game 3.

by cubsfan25 on Feb 25, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs