Projections too optimistic

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 3:01 PM CST

I have all kinds of respect for Al, and I absolutely support the need for optimism regarding a franchise that hasn't won a championship in 100 years.

Still, I have to say, Al's player projections (I'm referring to his original ones, not the combined averages of everyone who's made predictions) share one characteristic: Too optimistic.

Just looking at the eight hitters he's profiled so far (Soto, Fukodome, Lee, Pie, Soriano, Theriot, Ramirez, DeRosa) I notice that he doesn't predict anyone to have an off year. Not only that - he's forecasting what I'd consider career or nearly career years for Lee, Ramirez and Soriano, and is expecting Fukodome to have no trouble at all adjusting to a new league/new country (maybe this is possible - but then again, he may not be the second coming of Ichiro).

In sum, Al expects these 8 players to combine for 171 homers (and this is including Theriot, Pie and Soto - none of whom have demonstrated much power in the MLB so far). That means the Cubs as a team will hit well over 200 homers. I hope so. But I wouldn't count on it after the team combined for just 151 last year and only added one offensive player of any note during the offseason. He also says not a single one of these players will hit under .275. I'd love to see that, believe me. But I don't think it's going to happen. I particularly have my doubts whether Pie can go from .215 to .275. I hope - believe me - but I have doubts.

The pitching projections also seem too optimstic, though a bit more restrained. I suppose we can hope Zambrano's ERA falls by almost 50 points from last year, and that Hill develops into one of the elite pitchers in the NL (as Al's projections predict), but then again, what are the odds of both of those things happening the same year?

I hope Al is right. If he is, it will be one exciting summer. But on the other hand, one has to expect at least a few players to have off years in 2008. If all the players perform as Al is predicting, the Cubs have no excuse not to go all the way.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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on the Big 3

i dont think Al projected close to career years for soriano and dlee, if so he would be picking both for 40+ homer years which he did not.

on aramis, i dont know why one would expect him to have less than a stellar year. he's the most consistent offensive player on the team and is still in his prime.

most "experts" are more optimistic on cubs players than, felix pie is just one (look at the sig below) that the experts feel will do better than most cubs fans, Al included.

i think its easy to see why people would be optimistic about rich hill improving after his first full season in the league.

if Al was the only person projecting these optimistic stats, thatd be one thing, but the truth is that most experts have been even MORE optimistic than some cubs fans.

get optimistic, one hell of a year ahead of us hopefully.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 3:06 PM CST 0 recs

I'm not saying

none of them could have a great year, or that all of his projections are too optimistic. Just that it's optimistic to think they'll all have great years in the same season. But let's hope they do!

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 8:55 PM CST up 0 recs

why are you bothered by it?

its his prediction, its not like it will definately happen. Its his opinion

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 25, 2008 3:16 PM CST 0 recs

So sayeth the Dude.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 25, 2008 3:21 PM CST 0 recs

thats just hillarious

love it

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 3:30 PM CST up 0 recs

I hope you're all correct

And maybe the experts are too. Perhaps 33 years of watching failure on the field has made me jaded.

I will try to get more optimistic. It is spring, after all (almost)

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 3:30 PM CST 0 recs

Remember, though....

that none of the Cubs players had an off-the-charts great year in 2007. No one had a bad year, but no one was MVP caliber either. I don't know if D-Lee is ever going to repeat the year he had in 2005, but if he does drop down to fourth in the order and has Fukudome ahead of him and Aramis behind him, this could be his year.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Feb 25, 2008 3:51 PM CST 0 recs

Exactly.

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 4:14 PM CST up 0 recs

Soto's power

You say "...Soto - none of whom have demonstrated much power in the MLB so far." Small quibble:

While it's a small sample size, Soto demonstrated significant power in his appearances with the Cubs last year.

54 AB/6 2B/3 HR/.389/.433/.667

by John Q Freejazz on Feb 25, 2008 4:20 PM CST 0 recs

Right.

I don't think he'll be that good over a full season, but I do think he'll be a significant improvement over the black hole we had at catcher last year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 4:25 PM CST up 0 recs

I agree

I don't think he'll have the single greatest offensive year in the history of the catcher position either.

by Thelonious on Feb 25, 2008 4:31 PM CST up 0 recs

Right.

And I didn't project him to have such a season.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 4:34 PM CST up 0 recs

Yes...yes...yes...this so true!

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 25, 2008 4:37 PM CST up 0 recs

Not in toto

You can't look at this projection exercise in aggregate. They are what they are - INDIVIDUAL projections. You look at each player and you come up with your best guess as to what you think that player is going to do. That's all. It's not that complicated.

Stephen Covey's "Begin with the end in mind" principle simply does not apply here. If you take an aggregate approach, then it stands to reason at some point you are going to have to back into some of your projections to make things 'fit'. And that kinda defeats the purpose. Not to mention the fun.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Feb 25, 2008 4:25 PM CST 0 recs

The thing that

hurts or sku's these projections is as simple as this. We are for the most part using our heart in hopes for the best. Of course us Cub fans for the most part will project what others might consider higher totals than say a non fan of the team.

I don't see anything wrong with it. We are fans and why not.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 25, 2008 4:50 PM CST 0 recs

So far the community forecasts as a whole...

...look to be pretty in-line with what systems like PECOTA or ZiPS are projecting the Cubs for. Al's forecasts may or may not be on the high side compared to the rest of the group (I'll take a look later when I try and catch up on getting things entered and double-checked - I've been busy and am a bit behind on it).

But let's say that Al's forecasts are a bit rosy. So what?

Analysts everywhere are seeing a substantial improvement for the Cubs next season - Nate Silver's PECOTA standings say 92-93 wins for the Cubs, simulated standings show the Cubs as a 90+ win team; my own depth chart analysis I've been doing at my site shows the Cubs at about 92 wins.

There are plenty of analytical reasons to see the Cubs as an improved team next year.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 25, 2008 5:07 PM CST 0 recs

92-93 wins

Now that would be exciting and somewhat cause us to not be referred to as Comedy Central.

by ak123 on Feb 25, 2008 5:33 PM CST up 0 recs

It's because of the Comedy Central.

Cubs have the weakest projected schedule of any team in baseball. Somehow we drew the AL East in interleague play and don't have to play any good teams.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 25, 2008 5:46 PM CST up 0 recs

We'll take it, right?

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 5:47 PM CST up 0 recs

Yes but...

Al, you can't deny that you would have loved to see Cubs play at Fenway (a series we deserve to see!) or a few games with The Yankees...just only because of how rare of game that would be.

by ak123 on Feb 25, 2008 6:35 PM CST up 0 recs

True enough.

I was, frankly, surprised the Cubs didn't go to Fenway this year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 6:46 PM CST up 0 recs

Yes

I was surprised that the Cubs aren't playing the Yankees or the Red Sox.

One would think it'd be a fan's delight, especially considering it's the final year of Yankee Stadium.

by John Q Freejazz on Feb 25, 2008 6:54 PM CST up 0 recs

Yeah...

if we do win it all this year...it just won't be as sweet because we'll all know that we "played a weak schedule". Too bad for us.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 25, 2008 5:50 PM CST up 0 recs

To me the schedule

doesn't matter. A Central title is a title, hell who knows what can happen, a team that might be projected to finish in the bottom of a division wins 40 of there first 60, and that "team" becomes a good team, so you never know.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Feb 25, 2008 5:55 PM CST up 0 recs

AL East

........thinking the Rays ain't all bad though. Pretty nice young starting pitching. They MIGHT crack .500..........

Still beats the hell out of having 3 each against the Bo Sox and Yanks.........plus 6 against the feeble White Sux

by plenz on Feb 25, 2008 6:34 PM CST up 0 recs

Ok, I went back and took a look...

...and here's the steel cage match, Al Yellon versus CHONE. I'm using wOBA because, well, I like using wOBA. Just remember, .338 wOBA is average.

Soto: .338 vs. .355
Lee: .420 vs. .396
DeRosa: .347 vs. .342
Ramirez: .392 vs. .385
Theriot: .321 vs. .312
Soriano: .375 vs. .371
Pie: .329 vs. .328
Fukudome: .376 vs. .381

Outside of the Lee forcast nothing jumps out at me as being much above and beyond what CHONE projects. In fact, compared to CHONE Al seems a shade pessimistic about Fukudome and Soto.

My point here is that you can't sit there matching data to conclusions you've already come up with - the data has to come first. You can't just roundly declare the Cubs a 90-win team out of thin air and then start apportioning credit for those wins. You've got to take each player on their own merits, figure their value, and then aggregate that into the team as a whole.

You're acting like players are trying to apportion off a piece of the team talent pie - it's the players that drive the team's winning, and whether or not Carlos Zambrano pitches well has a whole hell of a lot more to do with his workload the past few seasons, his shoulder, and the fact that last season seriously underperformed compared to his past norms than whether or not Rich Hill pitches well.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 26, 2008 12:39 AM CST up 0 recs

I look at the key

word projections, we all have different ones, no one is right or wrong, lets see how they finish.
Cubs win 94 games and win the Series, I don't think anyone would mind if I predict Marquis to go 15-4.

Go Cubs

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Feb 25, 2008 5:51 PM CST 0 recs

90 wins

Let's hope it happens. I think the Cubs have a good chance to repeat as division champs, but that's more wins than I see them getting. I'll say mid- to high-80s.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 8:54 PM CST 0 recs

90 wins is my guess

I agree that a lot of these projections are too rosy. That being said I think we can be a quality 90 win team. I anticipate a knock down drag out fight for the NL Central title between Milwaukee, Cincinnati and us.

The success of our season will come down to starting pitching. Pitching is KING in baseball. I have concern about our rotation. The wildcards are Rich Hill and Ryan Dempster. Hill needs to hold steady while Dempster needs to come through in reliable fashion. A major injury to Zambrano or Lilly will be enormously difficult to overcome given the marginal quality and depth of our pitching otherwise.

by MDBNIU on Feb 25, 2008 9:18 PM CST 0 recs