2008 Community Projections: Rich Hill

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 8:56 AM CST in Community Projections

Just a reminder, I've left the Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome threads open all weekend; if you missed projecting these players, I'll leave them open till the end of the day. You can also project Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, if you missed those threads over the weekend. Take a look at these stat lines. Do you know whose they are, and for what year?

IP H ER HR BB SO W L ERA WHIP 196.1 196 82 16 69 171 15 11 3.76 1.35 195.0 170 85 27 63 183 11 8 3.92 1.20

Pretty similar, right? You should recognize the bottom line as Rich Hill's from last year. The top line is Erik Bedard's 2006 season, when he was 27, the same age as Hill was a year ago. Bedard had more experience than Hill when he put up those numbers, and I think Hill's going to be in line to improve in just that way. My pick:

G 34
GS 34
IP 200
H 176
ER 76
BB 60
SO 193
W 16
L 8
ERA 3.42
WHIP 1.18

Rich Hill's career stats at baseball-reference.com

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Rich Hill

G - 33
GS - 33
IP - 212
H - 172
ER - 84
BB - 70
K - 206

W - 15
L - 11

ERA - 3.57
WHIP - 1.14

by Ayralin on Feb 25, 2008 9:23 AM CST 0 recs

Hill Thoughts

I honestly expected batters to just lay off his curve and smack around his fastball last year, but he was able make his fastball an out pitch. I think he will be capable of being just as effective in 2008 as he was last year, but it is difficult for me to project a major improvement at age 28 and with his style (can't make that curve break anymore sharply and it can't be disguised).

G 33
GS 33
IP 201
H 175
ER 89
BB 60
SO 195
W 15
L 8
ERA 3.99
WHIP 1.17

by Qixotl on Feb 25, 2008 9:27 AM CST 0 recs

Bedard vs. Hill

Bedard pitched in against a DH in the toughest division in baseball and Hill faced the weakest division... hardly a fair comparison.

by lohroffc on Feb 25, 2008 9:45 AM CST 0 recs

Point taken.

Still, I think it's possible that Hill could make a similar improvement -- especially since, as you point out, he's pitching in a weak division.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 10:02 AM CST up 0 recs

Actually I thought

It was a good comparison. The two pitches equal each other in that year VERY WELL. The only factor is who their pitching against. Id say its better than any other lefty to compare to.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 25, 2008 10:06 AM CST up 0 recs

Again, I agree with Al.

Bedard pitched in against a DH in the toughest division in baseball and Hill faced the weakest division... hardly a fair comparison.

If anything, it's an unfair comparision for Bedard b/c Hill is pitching in the NL Central, doesn't face a DH, etc. He's more likely to improve in a similar fashion due to the overall regression of the NL Central. The division actually has become worse.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Feb 25, 2008 10:35 AM CST up 0 recs

tony412

G 33
GS 33
IP 201
H 170
ER 82
BB 57
SO 195
W 14
L 9
ERA 3.59
WHIP 1.25

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Feb 25, 2008 9:54 AM CST 0 recs

Hill

G 33
GS 33
IP 193
H 174
ER 81
BB 64
SO 183
W 14
L 10
ERA 3.78
WHIP 1.23

by McRipper on Feb 25, 2008 9:54 AM CST 0 recs

Rich Hill

G 30
GS 30
IP 188
W 9
L 13
ERA 4.41
WHIP 1.39

by MDBNIU on Feb 25, 2008 10:07 AM CST 0 recs

care to elaborate

projecting a .20 regression in WHIP do to...?

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 10:48 AM CST up 0 recs

Hill

I'm guessing / projecting that Zambrano, Lilly and Dempster all have good years. Not every starting pitcher will have a good year. It's the law of averages. Hill is my pick for the guy who has an "off year," struggles, is snake-bit, etc... Nothing more scientific than that.

by MDBNIU on Feb 25, 2008 10:51 AM CST up 0 recs

I gotta admit Al, I like what you're selling!

Rich Hill was screwed so many times last season due to lack of run support. I know for a large portion of the season in 2007, Hill had the lowest run support in the NL (for a starter.)

Hill also has to eliminate first innning runs allowed. I swear, every start he would give up at least a run in the first and then would pitch great the rest of the game....many times.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Feb 25, 2008 10:32 AM CST 0 recs

Tricky Dick Hill

G 34
GS 34
IP 192
H 163
ER 71
BB 77
SO 204
W 20
L 10
ERA 3.33
WHIP 1.25

Go on...tell me I'm nuts to project 20 wins for him.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 25, 2008 11:19 AM CST 0 recs

20 wins

in 192 innings might be tough, but it wouldnt shock me if he won 20. he was our best starting pitcher last year.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 11:42 AM CST up 0 recs

last sentence imo, im sure others will disagree

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 25, 2008 11:43 AM CST up 0 recs

Really?

I thought Hill had a nice year for his first full season in the rotation, but Ted Lilly was the Cubs' best pitcher all year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 11:43 AM CST up 0 recs

Hill

G 36
GS 36
IP 234
H 175
ER 71
BB 90
SO 245
W 22
L 6
ERA 2.73
WHIP 1.13

Hill steps it up big time when Lilly regresses. Not as good as Z, but a number 2 who would be number one on many teams.

by frustratedfan on Feb 25, 2008 1:04 PM CST 0 recs

Hmm

I'd be shocked if any Cub pitcher this year puts up that many starts and innings. Even Z is going to have to work to get 35 starts, let alone 36.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 1:28 PM CST up 0 recs

Not to mention

Your other estimates are wildly optimistic. Who was the last Cub pitcher to win 22 or more games? I believe it was Fergie back in the early 70s.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 1:29 PM CST up 0 recs

Correct.

Since 1945, the ONLY Cub pitchers to win MORE than 20 games (Reuschel, Maddux and Lieber won exactly 20) are Larry Jackson, who went 24-10 in 1964, and Fergie, who did it three times (21 in 1969, 22 in 1970, and 24 in 1971).

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 1:36 PM CST up 0 recs

22 wins

If any Cub pitcher has a chance for that, it would be Zambrano, not Hill. Hill is serviceable as a third starter. I expect him to be around .500 with an ERA around 4.20.

On the other hand, maybe Hill could aim to become the first Cub pitcher to attain 22 losses in a season since Bill Bonham accomplished the feat back in 1974. (It took Bonham 44 games - 36 of them starts) to get there. And a 3.86 ERA - not even too terrible.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 1:58 PM CST up 0 recs

Bonham

According to Baseball Almanac, Bonham made $38,500 in 1976, and then got a raise to $50,000 in 1977 after winning just 9 games with a 4.27 ERA. I wonder if people were complaining about salary inflation.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 25, 2008 2:04 PM CST up 0 recs

Remind me again

why Fergie's number hasn't been retired yet?

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Feb 25, 2008 4:22 PM CST up 0 recs

I think ...

... they're waiting for Maddux to make the HoF, and then they can have a ceremony retiring #31 for both pitchers.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 4:26 PM CST up 0 recs

It figures

and while they are my two favorite Cub pitchers, Fergie kind of deserved to get the honor sometime in the last millenium. This could be a 6 to 10 year wait, and Jenkins turns 66 this year.

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Feb 26, 2008 5:13 AM CST up 0 recs

#31 X 2

retirement ceremonies are appropriate and deserved for both of these Cub greats!

Fergie should have been given this honor long ago.

I would like to see the Cubs not wait until Maddux goes into the HOF on the unanimously elected first round.

Two #31 flags could be flown above Wrigley; or since they "shared" the 31 jersey, Fergie's honor could be to receive his name on one side of the flag first, with Greg's added later on the other side of the same flag.

SOMEDAY…

"If they won a world championship, sure, we'd be proud. But we couldn't love them any more than we already do " -anonymous Cub fan

by hellfreezesoverwaittillnextyear on Feb 27, 2008 12:20 AM CST up 0 recs

36 Starts.

Hill doesn't go to the All Star Game. Zambrano does. Hill picks up an extra start right after the break. He also picks up an extra start late in the season as the Cubs are in a final push to outlast the Brewers for a playoff spot. Yes, its a bit of a push in terms of number of starts, but its only 2 over the number put up by a lot of people.

As for "wins", those are team dependent. And I think Hill's going to get a lot of run support and the Pen's not going to let him down.

by frustratedfan on Feb 25, 2008 4:51 PM CST up 0 recs

Question:

What are you frustrated about, specifically?

People get frustrated about all sorts of things. Their job; their relationships; their bills; their sexuality etc. How are you doing? What's bothering you, little buddy?

Let's work though these problems. Maybe then, you'll drop your biases....your ridiculous, hackneyed, half-baked, and by all accounts eccentric biases.

Every now and then, I find that I'm very curious what certain bloggers are like in real life. Frustated Fan is one of those people.

by Thelonious on Feb 25, 2008 2:50 PM CST up 0 recs

I hope

Hill wins 22 games frustratedfan, but I don't think he has a chance in hell of doing it. I think he is a slightly better than average pitcher who will do a decent job for us. I would be surprised if he wins more than 11 or 12 games. I would also guess that his era will be somewhere in the high 3's to low 4's.

by qccub on Feb 25, 2008 9:07 PM CST up 0 recs

Hill

G 28
GS 26
IP 160
H 132
ER 60
BB 48
SO 150
W 15
L 6
ERA 3.375
WHIP 1.125

Hill misses a few starts to fatigue, but otherwise his numbers improve. He gets better run support so his win % gets better.

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 25, 2008 1:32 PM CST 0 recs

hill

G 34
GS 34
IP 204
H 166
ER 78
BB 63
SO 211
W 16
L 10
ERA 3.44
WHIP 1.12

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 25, 2008 2:15 PM CST 0 recs

Hill

G 34
GS 34
IP 201
H 148
ER 71
BB 67
SO 191
W 18
L 8
ERA 3.18
WHIP 1.07

by Archie on Feb 25, 2008 2:27 PM CST 0 recs

well, I don't know about Hill....

but Yankees' fans projections of Joba Chamberlain go something like this.....

G 34
GS 34
IP 290
H 4
ER 1
BB 3
SO 397
W 30
L 0
ERA 0.02
WHIP 0.04

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Feb 25, 2008 5:38 PM CST 0 recs

That's still not as good...

... as Johan Santana, who is going to go 34-0 for the Mets.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 25, 2008 5:49 PM CST up 0 recs

not as good as 2007

G 33
GS 33
IP 187
H 172
ER 84
BB 72
SO 201
W 11
L 11
ERA 4.04
WHIP 1.30

by socalbob on Feb 25, 2008 6:09 PM CST 0 recs

Hill will improve at least a little

G 33
GS 33
SO 205
W 15
L 8
ERA 3.67
WHIP 1.19
IP 210

IF Hill masters his change up this year, the could improve alot. But with getting some experience and more confidence makes me think he will improve at least a little. Lets not forget Hill was a 3.60s era until September last year. When like most young pitchers he probably got a little tired, and had his worst month of the season.

by cubsfan25 on Feb 25, 2008 8:02 PM CST 0 recs

cubsfan25....

You touched on an interesting aspect to Rich Hill's success. Last season, he was considered a "two pitch" pitcher. Adding a good changeup will help him very much. I remember a game last year against San Diego when he was getting rocked from his first pitch. There was speculation that he was tipping his pitches in that game. It probably didn't help that "the professor", Greg Maddux was sitting in the opposing dugout at the time. My guess is that Maddux picked up on something in Hill's delivery, and relayed to the Padre hitters what to look for to know what pitch was coming in any given situation.

by montecarlo on Feb 26, 2008 3:36 AM CST up 0 recs

Hill

G 32
GS 32
IP 211
H 189
ER 82
BB 58
SO 207
W 14
L 11
ERA 3.69
WHIP 1.06

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 25, 2008 9:02 PM CST 0 recs

Hill

G/GS-33
IP-204
W-16
L-10
SO-195
BB-79
H-175
ER-87
ERA-3.84
WHIP-1.25

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 27, 2008 5:14 AM CST 0 recs

Hill

G-32
GS-32
IP-213
W-16
L-9
SO-187
BB-85
H-169
ER-92
ERA-3.89
WHIP-1.19

Winning pitcher on 9-22 when the Cubs clinch

by Southside Steve on Feb 27, 2008 3:30 PM CST 0 recs

I'm late but I'll get in

G:31 and GS as well
IP: 201
W: 15
L: 8
H: 176
R: 98
BB: 60
SO: 194
ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 1.17

by SamFels on Feb 28, 2008 1:31 PM CST 0 recs

I'm late, too...

...but here goes. Filthy Rich takes a step forward this season. Maybe not a huge step, but a significant one nonetheless. His Ks and WHIP are all-star caliber. Hills' digits:

G: 33
GS: 33
IP: 202
H: 165
ER: 79
BB: 59
SO: 193
W: 15
L: 8
ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.10

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 29, 2008 10:15 AM CST 0 recs