2008 Community Projections: Ryan Dempster

by Al Yellon on Feb 27, 2008 9:30 AM CST in Community Projections

Tomorrow morning, you'll see the first Game Thread for the 2008 season as the Cubs will face the Giants in the first spring game. We'll continue the projection series even while games are going on, but I wanted to get this one going now.

So far, we have projected eleven players -- and there's not much doubt that those eleven (eight position players, and the top three starting pitchers) will likely be in those spots all year. Now, we get into more of a speculative mode. I'll post projection threads for several rotation candidates, and also for the three closer candidates, over the next week or two.

And for the first time, I'm NOT going first. I, personally, am not sure what to make of Dempster's attempt to go back to being a rotation starter for the first time in five years (I don't really count his six starts for the '05 Cubs, because if Dusty Baker had listened to everyone shouting loudly at the time, Dempster would have started the season as the closer), when he was still with the Reds, and eight years removed from his only good year as a starter, 2000 with the Marlins.

So YOU start. I'll chime in at some point in the comments. I do know this: Dempster seems determined to succeed in going back to starting. Obviously, desire doesn't necessarily produce results. But it's a start.

Ryan Dempster's career stats at baseball-reference.com

(Incidentally, the photo on the card pictured above was almost certainly taken last May 17 at Shea Stadium, when Dempster had his worst meltdown of the season. Thanks, Topps.)

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I'll Start

Dempster:
G 28
GS 28
IP 165
H 181
ER 84
BB 57
SO 149
W 11
L 10
ERA 4.58
WHIP 1.44

by McRipper on Feb 27, 2008 9:40 AM CST reply actions

Dempster Thoughts

The Cubs seem determined to use Dempster in the rotation regardless of what happens this spring, so I'll project that he will be in the rotation until the end of May, where the experiment will end. Since I expect that the other three closer candidates will be effective, Dempster would just be a mop up guy for the rest of the year (and may miss some time due to fatigue or arm soreness).

G 30
GS 10
IP 90
H 85
ER 54
BB 49
SO 80
W 2
L 9
ERA 5.40
WHIP 1.49

by Qixotl on Feb 27, 2008 9:43 AM CST reply actions

I'm with you

I won't bother to project the guy. I as a one inning guy he's passable, but if hitters got a second or third look at his "stuff" in any given game, he'd get pounded.

I'd rather see Gallagher get a shot as our 5th starter.

They're not booing, they're saying FUUUUUUUUUUUKE!

by Hugest Canadian Cubs Fan on Feb 27, 2008 9:53 AM CST up reply actions

I agree

Dempster will turn out to be a disaster as a starter.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 27, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions

Where's the love...

...for a fellow Canadian? (Demp was born in BC)

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 27, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions

Stat Addition

Didn't think about the save number when I posted. I'll give him one either after a three inning outing in a blowout or in the 13th or 14th inning of an extra inning game.

SV 1

by Qixotl on Feb 27, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions

Let me just say that I think this...

is an awful experiment that I hope will end by Memorial Day.

G 50
GS 10
IP 100
H 110
ER 47
BB 40
SO 82
W 3
L 7
ERA 4.86
WHIP 1.5
SV 3

by Damen Jackson on Feb 27, 2008 10:16 AM CST reply actions

Dempster

G 33
GS 33
IP 200
W 16
L 10
ERA 4.24
WHIP 1.18

by MDBNIU on Feb 27, 2008 10:17 AM CST reply actions

If that happens

I'll be very impressed. Dempster never has had that good a season, even when he started. The league is pretty familiar with him now; I don't think he'll fool many hitters.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 27, 2008 10:22 AM CST up reply actions

If Demp wins 16...

Z wins the Cy Young.

I just don't see him contributing much and hope the contract size doesn't influence much.

I project him to either be in the Cubs 'pen or some other teams' roster.

by blackhawk24 on Feb 27, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions

I couldn't agree more about Dempster....

And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they used ST as a showcase, and moved him before the start of the season.

by Damen Jackson on Feb 27, 2008 10:31 AM CST up reply actions

I have to believe...

... given the signing of Lieber, and the other people available (Gallagher, Marshall, Hart, others), that either Marquis or Dempster will be dealt before spring training ends.

Reminder: please choose ALL pitching categories when you project -- the spreadsheet we're using requires that.

For Dempster, since he could start or relieve, use:

G, GS, IP, H, ER, BB, SO, W, L, ERA, WHIP, SV

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 27, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions

Interesting

How optimistic a projection this is coming from quite possibly the most negative poster on BCB.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Feb 27, 2008 12:56 PM CST up reply actions

Dempster

With the Cubs
G 10
GS 10
IP 45
H 60
ER 35
BB 25
SO 30
W 2
L 5
ERA 7.0
WHIP 1.8 something

With an AL Team
G 30
GS 0
IP 45
H 45
ER 20
BB 23
SO 30
W 1
L 2
H 12
S 1
ERA 4.0
WHIP 1.4 somthing

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2008 10:52 AM CST reply actions

A little love...

Dempster:

G 39
GS 25
IP 141
H 97
ER 71
BB 82
SO 91
W 9
L 11
ERA 4.53
WHIP 1.27
SV 0

The dude still has stuff. Stop the Dempster hate!

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 27, 2008 11:21 AM CST reply actions

Word on the street is

he looks GREAT.

Who knows. Maybe this is the year he gets it all together.

by nickler on Feb 27, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions

dempster

G 28
GS 34
IP 177
H 165
ER 87
BB 92
SO 144
W 10
L 10
ERA 4.42
WHIP 1.45

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 27, 2008 12:54 PM CST reply actions

uhh

28 games but 34 starts?

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2008 2:00 PM CST up reply actions

That would be a neat trick

How about 41 starts, 346 innings, 30 complete games, 1.97 ERA, 310 strikeouts...

Wait a minute. That's 1972 Steve Carlton. Darn.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 27, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions

Off topic...sorry

Bulls 402 ta zip... but Micheal Jordan will be held to under 200 points. - Todd O'Connor

by Lou In Blue on Feb 27, 2008 1:09 PM CST reply actions

Demp

This is a tough one

G-52
GS-10
IP- 122
H-110
ER-67
BB- 69
K- 91
W-6
L-9
SV-2
ERA-4.94
WHIP-1.47

Starts the season in the rotation, is replaced by Gallagher at the end of May, earns some cheap wins out of the bullpen the rest of the way

by Southside Steve on Feb 27, 2008 3:36 PM CST reply actions

Keep in mind

that if Dempster has a 5.40s era or more he won't be in the rotation for very long this year. We have alot of good rotation options this year. So Lou isn't gonna put up with guys struggling 3-4 starts in a row.

Personally I want Dempster to do well since he's tried really hard, when everyone has doubted him. So I'll make one prediction with my heart and another one with my brain.

Heart predictions

Starts- 33
BB- 82
SO -177
IP- 202
ERA- 4.18
WHIP-133
W-14
L-11

Think Matt Clement 2003 type season

What my brain tells me

Starts 6 has a 5.80s or so era, and is moved to the bullpen.

Total numbers

G-48
BB-46
SO-88
IP- 82
ERA-4.57
WHIP-141
W-2
L-5

by cubsfan25 on Feb 27, 2008 3:51 PM CST reply actions

Pirates

This isn't really related, but checking out the Grapefruit League action today, it's nice to see that the Pirates can beat someone. They're taking care of Manatee Community College quite easily today.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 27, 2008 4:04 PM CST reply actions

Then don't rule out Manatee...

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 28, 2008 10:20 AM CST up reply actions

I've been waiting 5 long months to say these words

And tomorrow, we'll be able to.

LETS PLAY BALL!

There is no place like Nebraska - Go Huskers!

by sanantonecub on Feb 27, 2008 4:57 PM CST reply actions

Not gonna work

Demp just isn't that good. He has no offspeed stuff, and his slider bends more than it breaks. Good for an inning, most of the time, but not as a starter.

G:55
GS: 12
IP:110
H: 134
BB: 68
SO: 70
R: 62
W: 4
L: 9
ERA: 5.2
WHIP: 1.8

by SamFels on Feb 28, 2008 1:37 PM CST reply actions

I'm going to give this a shot...

... in the dark:

G 50
GS 15
IP 111
H 101
ER 55
BB 55
SO 98
W 7
L 7
SV 7
ERA 4.46
WHIP 1.41

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 29, 2008 10:37 AM CST reply actions

If anyone can pull this off...

...it's a wily, clever fellow like Ryan Dempster. Don't get me wrong -- I'm not predicting a run at the Cy Young, but I think he'll turn in a performance somewhat comparable to his 2001 with the Marlins. (Also, I'm either too lazy, too unimaginative or too ill at ease with my own math skills to try to make a mixed prediction for him as both a starter and a bullpen guy, which, quite frankly, is entirely possible.) In other words, he's this year's Jason Marquis -- and I'm not sure where that leaves the actual Jason Marquis. Let's say:

G: 31
GS: 31
IP: 199
H: 200
ER: 100
BB: 101
SO: 170
W: 12
L: 9
ERA: 4.52
WHIP: 1.51

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by daver on Feb 29, 2008 11:06 AM CST reply actions