Back End of the 08 Bullpen

by slumpbuster17 on Feb 3, 2008 9:56 PM CST Comment 39 comments

It's another slow day in baseball world, so I decided to see what everyone thinks the back end of the bullpen should look like this year. Marmol, Wood and Howry (possibly Eyre for a lefty-lefty matchup) are more than likely going to fill these spots, but in what order? I personally believe Marmol should stay in the 6th-7th inning spot, solely because he is the dirtiest and sometimes you have to save the game in the 6th or 7th to have any chance of saving it in the 9th. Also, if you bring him in for an out in the 6th or 7th, he would be able to come out again the next inning if his spot wasn't due up. From there I think it is a toss-up on who goes in the 8th and 9th. What does everyone think?

Poll

What order would you pick?

Wood-Howry-Marmol

16 votes

Howry-Wood-Marmol

21 votes

Other

13 votes

Marmol-Wood-Howry

29 votes

Marmol-Howry-Wood

86 votes

165 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

wood

seems best suited to the closer role. he's arguably got the best stuff, he has the most pitches, and one would think he has the potential to have that great closer mentality. im definitely rooting for him to take the role running, and its almost as though maybe he can still salvage his place in cubs history as just a nasty shut down closer. how unreal would it be for wood to nail down the game winning save in the bottom of the ninth of a world series winning game.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 3, 2008 10:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

At this point

I like Howry as the closer. The reasoning is simple; he throws strikes and is simply dependable. In today's game, the closer needs to get 3 outs at the start of an inning, not get out of jams and I think Howry fits that role the best.

In regards to Marmol, I retain him as the guy that comes in to get out of a jam in either the 7th or 8th. His stuff is best utilized when you need a strike out or two and that is where he thrives.

Wood could also be a set-up guy along with Marmol. You can't get by with just one, and Wood's durability is still a significant question.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 3, 2008 10:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

agree on marmol

and i see what your saying about howry and how he doesnt waste any time, goes at hitters and is capable of getting those quick three outs. i just think that wood is a better saftey blanket at the end of the game. he has more pitches to get you out with, and it just scares me that howrys only real pitch is his fastball.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 3, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

my worry about howry

is last year he struggled a lot in the beginning of the year...he struggled to get his velocity going and got rocked. When the temperature warmed up and he got his velocity he was very good, but I worry about throwing him in as the closer in the start of the season after how much he struggled in the beginning of last year.

by cubsmania on Feb 3, 2008 10:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice point

about Howry. My concern with Wood in the 9th is his propensity to walk batters. A one run game and a walk prone pitcher, often does not mix well.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 4, 2008 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

which is why I never really cared for Dempster as the closer.

These guys need to get 3 outs with no body on base, not get out of jams. In those circumstances, I would rather have someone who is going to make the other team earn it, as opposed to giving free passes.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 4, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You confirmed

something I had know for awhile. But never the less another good point. Gone are the days of the starter laboring into the 9th inning. In hopes that a complete game could be recorded.

Often in the 9th the starter would run out of gas, thus the need for a true FIREMAN. Your point is well taken, you need an efficient guy to take the start of the 9th and get the heck out.

Which is why I like Marmol right were he is at. Instead of the game being saved in the 9th, often it is saved in the 7th or 8th. With the stuff Marmol has he is key in that role. I guess in a sense you would be wasting him if you saved him just for the 9th.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 4, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with ya

and I think you may see a league wide change in how relievers are used because of this.

Usually, the closer was the guy that had the most "electric" stuff in your pen. Now, I think you are seeing teams figure out that there are moments (in the 6th, 7th or 8th inning) where you need that same guy to come in to squelch a rally and retain the lead or tie.

For the 9th, give me a fresh arm that pounds the strike zone to get the final 3 outs. I need the strikeout guy in the 7th or 8th with runners on 1st and 3rd, not in the 9th with nobody on base. Lastly, there is now way to defend the base on balls, but you can catch a ball put in play.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 4, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with both of ya....

You guys make excellent points, and the good thing is I think we can have confidence in Sweet Lou to make good decisions with the back of the bullpen.

Hey Lou, we're long overdue.

by deadcatbounce on Feb 4, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Honesty

compels me to say I am merely riding MPH73's coat tails. I do that well. No one has ever accused me of making any points on this site, let alone a good point:)

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 4, 2008 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

let me know

when the cubs make it to the W.S. first....

1st Official Al-Wanna-Be! Feel free to become an Oficial Al-Wanna-Be Today!

by LilLPLancer23 on Feb 3, 2008 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

a fantasy

is just that.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 3, 2008 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I chose other

Wood-Marmol-Howry

Essentially last season with Howry stepping in as full-time closer. I think Marmol thrived last year because the 8th inning is where his pitch selection is best suited. He seems to have a ton of confidence there. Howry is experienced and when he's on he's efficient. He throws strikes and while he's not overpowering, the Cubs defense is solid enough on the field and bench so he can trust the 7 players behind him to make plays. I don't think spring training is a long enough period to properly assess Wood's durability. He's a very confident player and while I'd never accuse him of playing injured/fatigued he probably does feel some degree of pressure to fill the closer's role. He's a great competitor but that could work against him. Plus there's his walk rate which someone else mentioned.

In the end, I'll be happy with any arm in any situation and I trust Lou to make the right decision. The fact that this is one of the biggest question marks heading into spring training has me pretty confident in the Cubs' chances this season and I'm looking forward to it immensely (to put it as modestly as possible)

by morgane on Feb 5, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I said other...

Who says you need a specific order? i think marmol should be the amin closer, but heres the catch... over the past few years, the cubs havent even get into the 9th with a chance to close. so when your in that tight spot in the 7th inning where you need to get out of a jam, why not bring in marmol. bring him in when you need him.
Also, whats the problem with leavin a guy in for over an inning. like last year when theyd bring in marmol with 1 out in the 7th or 8th, hed finish the inning. why not bring him back the next inning? especially when he was lights out the last 2 batters?

1st Official Al-Wanna-Be! Feel free to become an Oficial Al-Wanna-Be Today!

by LilLPLancer23 on Feb 3, 2008 10:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Agree!

That was my point exactly. If you throw an "Oh-man" type guy in a tight spot in the 7th and he gives up a 3 run dinger, your "closer" never sees the field. Marmol (if he is lights out again this year) needs to come in and shut the door when need be.

by slumpbuster17 on Feb 3, 2008 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen

I think the Cubs wind up going with closer by committee for awhile until somebody emerges at "the" 9th inning guy. I'm not convinced Wood can withstand the rigors of pitching 3 or 4 days a week in tight games. That being said he can still be an outstanding piece of the puzzle. Marmol is going to get a lot of work no matter what. It will be interesting to see what role he ultimately settles into. Howry is underrated and a workhorse. I have concern over Eyre, which is part of the reason why I envision Cotts and his $800,000 salary making the ballclub.

Unless a trade or two goes down I would expect the 7-man bullpen to shape up to start the season...Wood, Howry, Marmol, Dempster, Eyre, Cotts, Wuertz. If Marquis gets traded then I would expect Dempster to win the job in the rotation to go along with Zambrano, Lilly, Lieber and Hill.

by MDBNIU on Feb 3, 2008 11:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Cotts isn't a lock

$800k is nothing in todays baseball world. Wuertz, numbers wise, is probably the most underrated member of the group. he's durable, reliable, and can be used whenever you just need to eat an inning.

by petrie on Feb 4, 2008 12:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

wood eventually will be the man, unless Nathan?

I think that Lou will probably think Marmol isn't quite ready to close games quite yet, but his stuff is clearly the best. He's going to be the closer one day for sure, maybe this season. Howry is best in the 8th inning. He can close when you need him to, but I don't think it's a long term solution. He's more comfortable in the 8th, he should be left there. That leaves Wood, though I worry about his ability to consistently throw strikes, which a closer must, and that his fastball though hard is awfully straight.

Steve Stone brought up the idea of trying to acquire Nathan from Minnesota, and lining up Marmol, Wood, Howry, and Nathan, basically reducing it to a 5 inning game against us. What do people think of that? It's intriguing....

by SamFels on Feb 4, 2008 2:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Nathan may be on the market...

... in July. If he is, and if neither Wood, nor Howry, nor Marmol, has been successful as closer, then it might be worth investigating obtaining Nathan. Understand that part of the price of getting him might be giving the Twins Marmol.

Right now, if I were Piniella, I wouldn't play a favorite until I see them in the role. Each of them has something in his favor:

Howry has done the job before and been successful at it.
Wood seems to have the mental makeup for the job and has "something to prove".
Marmol probably has the best stuff of the three.

Finally, it may seem weird to you at first, but it's likely we'll see some of them audition for this job early in spring training by pitching in the fourth or fifth inning. Why? Because the first week or two of the spring, that's the time when you're guaranteed to face major league hitters. Early in the spring, by the 9th inning, you're probably facing non-roster invitees and the kids on the 40-man roster.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 4, 2008 4:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with all of this and more

Minnesota knows that Nathan's value will escalate in July since a few teams will be looking for that closer to put them over the top. (see Brewers last year). Unless there is a rash of injuries Cubs will probably not be looking to spend capitol in this sector.

I tend to see Lou developing Wood as the closer with Howry as his consecutive game closer building up Wood's stamina. We have talked for years about Wood's personality and competitive makeup which is considered one of the keys to being a dominate and consistent game closer.

Marmol on the other hand appears to be a closer in training but has the stuff and makeup/experience to be the FIREMAN, the pitcher to come into the game that is at the deciding point whether it is to qwell a game tying or game leading rally or keep the game within reach. Howry and Eyre are stock experienced set up pitchers although I am concerned with Eyre even though he got his mechanics straightened out in August and September. He is not the stock LOOGY though. Howry could be a good spot closer or even Marmol if Lou needs to rest Wood and Howry.

I am more interested in how the middle relievers will work out as Wuertz is one and possibly Hart or Dempster is the other who might be the actual swing (spot starter/long reliever) which leaves the other, a lefty who might be the actual LOOGY. If Marshall is not traded it could be him or Pignatiello or Cotts, and it might be a merri-go-round through July until one pitcher emerges as effective.

To me Wood turned the corner late in September when he got three outs with bases loaded where he struck out the first batter and induced a inning ending double play to save the game.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Feb 4, 2008 8:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood

It would be a mistake to expect too much from Kerry Wood. Let him surprise us as opposed to heaping too big of expectations. His right arm remains a mess in my estimation. An irrepairable mess. I think he pitches on guts and guile more than anything. I'm not terribly worried about the closer role or the bullpen in general. Going with closer by committee for awhile is fine. There should be the depth of quality arms to get the job done.

by MDBNIU on Feb 4, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well said

to put high expectations on Kerry Wood would be a big big mistake. People tend to forget that he was days away from shutting it down last year before his arm came around.

Sure, it would be a great story if Wood closed out the game to clinch the NL pennant or World Series, but I think that is getting a tad bit ahead of ourselves.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 4, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"Closer by committee"

... in theory, is a good idea.

In practice, it never works. Bullpens where everyone has a defined role are the most successful ones. You can bet that someone will be designated "closer" before spring training ends.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 4, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It can work...

the Reds did it in 1990 with Myers (31 saves), Dibble (11 saves), Charlton (2 saves) and Layana (2 saves). I agree though that it's not common for the bullpen-by-committee to work.

However, I think that the reason that bullpens with defined roles are more successful tends to be that those bullpens tend to have more good pitchers in them. The reason most bullpen-by-committee efforts fail is also the reason why most bull-by-committee efforts are attempted: those bullpens aren't very good.

If you have 2-3 guys who are capable of closing (like the 1990 Reds), I think a bullpen by committee will be fine. But if you have 2-3 guys who are all mediocre, then it doesn't matter who you put in there - you're likely to have a bad outcome.

by SouthernCub on Feb 4, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But that was 1990.

That's 18 years ago. The game has changed. Yes, I know Lou Piniella was the manager of that team. But I doubt he'd do it the same way now.

Any one of those 3 could have closed. Randy Myers became a dominant closer after he left the Reds. It was a unique situation that I don't think you could repeat today.

Now, we can argue (and have) about whether that's a good idea or not. But that's the reality of Baseball 2008.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 4, 2008 5:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You just made my point for me...

The reason it worked in 1990 isn't because things were so different then. The reason it worked is because they had three guys who were very capable of closing. It would work again now, if you had three guys who could close. The reason it hasn't worked lately is because most teams don't have three guys who can close.

If you think that Howry, Marmol, and Wood can all close, then there's no reason it couldn't work. The problem isn't the system: it's the pieces of the system. If there was ever a team for which the approach could work again, I think it'd be this one, where you have no proven closers but three guys who could be solid at it. It might be a way to keep them all fresh and on their toes.

That said, I don't think it will happen here. In fact, I'd be shocked if it did. But I am saying that I don't think that the failures of the bullpen by committee are due to any flaw in the theory. If you have the arms, it would still work. Most teams just don't have the Nasty Boys. And most teams only try it these days because they don't have a good bullpen, which in turn makes it look like the theory is flawed.

by SouthernCub on Feb 4, 2008 9:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I see your point, but...

... as I said, things are different now. Relievers are much less likely to accept a "whoever's hot or available" in 2008 than they were in 1990.

Teams that have bullpens with well-defined roles tend to do better than teams that don't. I think the Cubs will anoint a closer before March 31 and stick with him -- until and unless he fails. It won't be a "rotation" or "committee".

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 5, 2008 7:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to disagree on this subject

I think the Cubs will wind up operating with a closer by committee more than people think. One, expecting Wood to be able to close several games a week and stay healthy over 6 months is stretching the bounds of likelihood. Two, we still haven't seen enough of Marmol to know if he is ready to be a closer or if he will ever develop into "closer material." It could be the case that his highest and best use becomes being a dominant set-up man. Who knows. Three, the underrated Howry sits in the mix. Four, Dempster is still lurking around and will be back in the bullpen unless Hendry is successful in moving Marquis or one of the other starters goes down.

I don't have a problem with "closer by committee." Or with there being an evolution on who is closer as the season progresses. Maybe its Howry or Dempster to start the season, then Wood, then Marmol.... It could play out lots of different ways.

by MDBNIU on Feb 4, 2008 9:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lou

Lou has said repeatedly he'd like to avoid the closer-by-committee situation.

by morgane on Feb 5, 2008 1:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In ten days...

pitchers and catchers will be having their 1st workouts and thus the competition will begin.

We will all find out over the course of the next six weeks who will be the Cubs closer.

Howry, Marmol or Wood will emerge as the guy that'll get the nod.

I'd be surprised - but not shocked - if Dempster is back there again. Really, I don't want to see him start and am unsure if the Cubs can deal him during spring training.

The coolest thing is watching one of the three contending closers come in the game in the 3rd inning to face the heart of the order of the other team. Can't wait to be at HoHoKam in just under 4 weeks.

by blackhawk24 on Feb 4, 2008 7:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Positive on the bullpen as a whole

We have a good mix, and there is some competition. I think it was Sporting News that had them 2nd best bullpen behind the Padres. Obviously we haven't even started Spring Training, but you have to feel good about the group as a whole. The rest of the NL Central does't project very strongly with their bullpens.

by Nibbles on Feb 4, 2008 9:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Howry, Marmol, Wood.

As some of this has already been said before.

Howry is going to attack guys and get strikes. If they get hits they get hits. Put him in, in the 6th or 7th. A hit or two then won't change the game.

Marmol has the best stuff to be a closer. But he's still a kid. Put him in the 8th where he wont get all freaked out.

Wood has been around and has an out pitch. If you don't throw over 98 MPH or have nasty movement, you don't have an out pitch. (Wood obviously has movement, especially if he can find the movement of when he used to throw frisbees out there.) Wood won't crack and can for sure close it out.

If Howry can get through the 7th you gotta have a good feeling the game is done. I will def take that chance. I think there could be many instances where you see the game end on 6 K's with Marmol and Wood closing it out.

by dus22 on Feb 4, 2008 9:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

It all depends...

on if Wood will be healthy enough to go back-to-back games. If not, he's not going to be the closer.

If Wood is healthy, then I'd say Marmol/Howry/Wood. Marmol is the guy you bring in to get out of jams and keep the lead. He won us many games by bailing us out of jams in the 6th/7th and getting the game to the late innings with the lead. Howry has been good in the 8th. If Wood is healthy, he's got better stuff than Howry and certainly has the closer's mentality.

If Wood is not healthy enough, then I think you'll see Wood and Marmol split duties in the middle/late innings and Howry close. I feel much less comfortable with that scenario.

by SouthernCub on Feb 4, 2008 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

re: It all depends...

I agree with this. Right now, I'm voting Marmol-Wood-Howry. I'd leave Marmol where he excels -- in the seventh, give Woody a shot to prove himself in the eight and, putting experience over youth and questionability, let Howry start the season as closer. If Woody appears to be healthy enough to pitch several games consecutively -- and is pitching effectively, of course -- I'd definitely christen him closer.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 4, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Marmol and Wood

I think Marmol should come up in the 7th and try to go in the 8th 2 if he gets fatigued or his spot comes up in the batting order id put howry in even though he scares me sometimes then have wood close i still think wood scares batters and all good closers have that intemdation factor. I still think Marmol will be closer of the future though.

by BigE50 on Feb 4, 2008 12:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wood/Marmol

Howry should stay place in the setup role and whichever of Wood and Marmol is throwing the best should be the guy that comes in to the game in the 6th or 7th inning when it's needed, the fireman so to speak. The other could be the closer, since that spot is likely to be less dangerous and less important to the outcome of the game. If you've really got to have defined roles then make Wood the closer, Howry the setup man and Marmol the fireman. Similar to last year (that seemed to work well) except replace Dempster with Wood.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Feb 4, 2008 4:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's less disruptive.......

leaving Marmol for the 6th and 7th........Howry was brillant for the 8th last year.....then Woody replaces Dempster in the closer role. I think that given good health Kerry can be a truly dominant closer. Marmol and Howry excelled in their roles last year so why not leave well enough alone and just plug wOODY IN FOR THE 9TH?

by plenz on Feb 5, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you think

projecting good health for Wood is a bit of a reach?

I just don't see Piniella putting him in that role and needing to change things when and if he goes down. It would be less disruptive if he is in a setup role with his questionable health.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 5, 2008 7:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

wood

I think his health is too much of a question to make him the closer.....I would consider letting dempster close again and have wood/marmol/howry all be set up guys. Dempster has been a fine closer and if you can line all those guys up...it could be a situation where we have a 6 or 7 inning game.

by cubsmania on Feb 6, 2008 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs