Something about Murton

by Luis on Mar 1, 2008 10:27 AM CST

Murton has a lifetime OPS around .820, which is not bad at all, especially if you think his best years are still ahead. Nonetheless, somehow I have gotten the impression that he hasn't performed well interms of knocking people in (RBI's). I wonder if it's just an impression I got or if the stats corroborate this. More than his numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) with runners on, I think a good stat would be RBI's per baserunners, and comparing that with other players in the league. I remembering seeing this stat at mlbtraderumors.com and I liked it. I don't have the time to do that analysis right now but I wonder if I'm the only one who has this feeling about Murton.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Interesting

Matt Murton has come to the plate with a runner on-base 397 times and hit a runner in 75 times. That gives him a rate of .19. Contrasted to a few other career .820ish OPS hitters of similar age, Andre Ethier has a .24 rate, Jeremy Hermida has a .22 rate, Nick Swisher a .23 rate, Austin Kearns a .24 rate. So, it looks like Murton is definitely low here.

Career splits
Murton with men on base:
.249/.338/.354 in 397 PA
Murton with the bases empty:
.330/.385/.527 in 532 PA

Conclusion: Matt Murton should lead-off.

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 1, 2008 11:01 AM CST 0 recs

Oh now that's just silly.

How is he supposed to lead off when he doesn't have any speed? He'll just clog the bases!

by sitrick2 on Mar 1, 2008 12:26 PM CST up 0 recs

How's he supposed to lead off

When the three positions he can credibly play are played by people who are better hitters and fielders than him?

GOATBUSTERS! - I ain't afraid of no goat!

by gjdow on Mar 1, 2008 1:03 PM CST up 0 recs

Pie

is a better hitter than Murton in center? I don't subscribe to this idea, which I assume isn't entirely serious, but I don't know how you make the assertion that Pie is a bigger offensive threat than Murton--though he does add another left-handed bat to the lineup.

Soriano's Contract: Approximately one dollar for every pitch in the dirt that he swings at.

by Ryno8 on Mar 1, 2008 1:23 PM CST up 0 recs

are we talking apples and banana's or something

Murton cannot play CF....so where to do you even come up with this thought regardless of your red-headed affection.

BTW do you know the Cubs W/L record when Pie played last year? That is the real statistic isn't it.....

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 1, 2008 2:33 PM CST up 0 recs

The problem with Murton

is that he appears to have lost the power he had in 2005.

In 2005, his home run / flyball rate was 22.3%; ie he hit 22.3 home runs for every 100 flyballs.

In 2006, 12.8%.

In 2007, 10.9%.

Iso slugging: 200, 147, 157

Most sluggers / power hitter are around 20% or better for HR / F.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Mar 1, 2008 3:35 PM CST 0 recs

Phrased that badly

22.3 out of 100 flyballs were HRs.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Mar 1, 2008 3:38 PM CST up 0 recs

not true

the first player i looked up, alfonso soriano, has not once EVER had a hr/flyball at 20%. he's had 15, 12, 15, 18 and 16.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 1, 2008 4:24 PM CST up 0 recs

aramis ramirez

12%, 17, 19, 15, 13

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 1, 2008 4:26 PM CST up 0 recs

Several points

I said most are around 20%. Not all. Also, since I was not clear, the 20% is not a hard number. It's a rough general number.

Furthermore, by slugger, I mean a corner OF / 1b.

Not someone who hits well while playing a premium D position like ARAM, or Soriano, who until last year was a 2b.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Mar 2, 2008 12:56 AM CST up 0 recs

League average is about 11%.

Remember: for young players (pre-27 years old) doubles are a better indicator of future home run rates than home runs.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 1, 2008 8:09 PM CST up 0 recs

I know what league average is

League average includes SS, catchers.

A corner OF with little to no baserunning value, who does not play good D, and who does not have a great contact skills, and who has platoon issues, needs to do better than league average.

Murton's OPS was also league average the last 2 years. Do you consider it acceptable, considering he as a corner OF?

The point is that Murton has not performed well in the last 2 years, because his power has vanished for whatever reason. Or because 2005 was a fluke that is not going to happen again.

He might very well get it back. In which case, he becomes a better player.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Mar 2, 2008 1:01 AM CST up 0 recs

Considering that Murton's...

...OBP is above league average, and a point of OBP is about 1.8 times more valuable than a point of slugging... yeah, I can handle that.

And Murton is an above-average defensive player in left field, according to most zone rating metrics.

And he's turning 26 next season. Power develops later than other skills - he's right at the cusp of his prime, and I would expect his power to increase. He's never going to be mistaken for a Bash Brother, but with an OBP like his its certainly more livable than you're suggesting.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 2, 2008 2:22 AM CST up 0 recs

Let's see

In 2006, Murton's OBP was 365, league average at Wrigley was 347, that is roughly, over a full season, 4 runs above average.

In 2007, Murton's OBP was 352, league average at Wrigley was again 347, that is roughly, over a full season, 1 run above average.

Both Batting Runs, a linear weights runs estimator, and Batting Runs above average from BPro, weight OBP correctly.

By Batting Runs, he was 2.8 runs above average offensively in 2006.

By BRAA, 7 runs above average.

2007, Batting Runs, 0.2 runs below average, BRAA 1 run above average.

For comparison, to compare him with another corner OF who plays in Chicago, Jermaine Dye was 2 runs above average by Batting Runs in 2007, 2 runs above average by BRAA.

Outside of 2005, Murton was a league average offensive player, in line with his league average OPS.

A corner OF who hits like a league average player is a mediocre player, and easily replaced by journeyman like Russ Branyan etc.

In 2007, in LF, Zone Rating, converted into runs, had him at 2 runs above average defensively. RZR at 5 runs above average.

But, in RF, ZR, 1 run BELOW average. RZR 3 runs BELOW average.

He played more in RF than LF, 282 innings to 185 innings. Why are you just focusing on the smaller sample size in LF, and ignoring the larger sample in right?

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Mar 2, 2008 4:43 AM CST up 0 recs

because we know

he's a left fielder. period. he played right out of necessity, not because anyone thought he has a real future in right field.

and you do not address the fact that his slugging numbers, and overall numbers should continue to increase as he is entering his prime. if he was league average, or a little above league average offensively as a 24 and 25-year-old, what will his offensive output be when he is 27, 28?

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 2, 2008 11:04 AM CST up 0 recs

If you actually read my posts

instead of instantly leaping to his defense, you will see that I stated several times, that I am NOT saying that he will not improve.

What I AM saying is that, UNLESS he improves he is a journeyman.

As to him being a LF, sure. He is slightly above average at LF. OTOH, him only being able to play LF reduces his value. Whether on the Cubs, or any team that he is traded to, he is now competing only for one spot, not 2.

A league average hitter at a corner OF position is mediocre. Players who hit like league average hitters while playing corner OF end up bouncing around the league.

A league average hitter as a corner OF with slightly above average D, is still not average overall.

Russ Branyan has been a slightly above league average hitter over his career. He is versatile enough to play both corners, and also 3b and 1b. He is a journeyman bouncing from team to team.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Mar 2, 2008 12:55 PM CST up 0 recs

you know i did read your post

and to double check, i typed in "unless" in my mozilla word finder, and the first time it came up was the post i am responding to. so you did not ever say that. anyways this is pointless because i basically agree with everything you're saying, other than the russ brayan part. i was responding in general because i was part of the convo. i didnt think you were giving the guy his full due, thats all. i did not mean to come off negatively towards you because i like your contributions over here, and hope you continue to post.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 2, 2008 11:27 PM CST up 0 recs

He didn't really lose his power....

...it's more the fact other teams figured out how to pitch him.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 3, 2008 8:55 AM CST up 0 recs

Precident

Back in the day, Brian Downing would occassionaly lead off for the Angels. No speed at all, but one of the better OBP's on the team.

Would I bat Murton leadoff full time? Probably not. But for the odd start, it wouldn't be terrible. In games with DH's, it might even make sense to do it.

In the middle of a good time, Truth gave me her icy kiss. Look around, you must be joking. All that way, all that way for this -Oysterband

by Ross on Mar 1, 2008 6:58 PM CST 0 recs

Guys

put your stats down for 1 second. Use your eyeballs. We have watched this guy for a couple of years now. Do you honestly want him in left or right instead of who's there now? Doesn't it make sense your backup outfielders should be as versatile as possible. Please enough discussion about a guy who just isn't good enough for this roster. Which is a good thing.

by Comfortably Numb on Mar 2, 2008 7:45 AM CST 0 recs

we're just having a discussion

about a cubs player. no one is suggesting he play right over fukudome, or left over soriano. he's a member of the team, and discussing a cubs player is something that happens on a cubs blog. the season hasnt started yet, is there something else to talk about that hasnt been beat into the ground 20+ times already this offseason?

ha, and why would you enter this thread if you thought it was pointless?

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 2, 2008 11:06 AM CST up 0 recs

Hey - I'll say this

- that if the Cubs could have convinced the Angels to take Soriano in a trade before they signed Torii Hunter and gotten a pitcher and a SS, we'd be better off with Murton, that pitcher, and that SS than we are with Soriano. Murton is not a better hitter than Soriano, but he is a better lead-off man.

And this is why it's worth knowing what you have on-roster down-roster. It's worth a conversation on what Eric Patterson really is before we go and trade for a lefty-speedy 2B. It's worth a conversation on what the Seans are before signing another starter long-term.

Maybe if the Cubs organization had had a better conversation about what was already on roster, last year, we could have started the year with JJ in CF, Sori in RF and Floyd/Murton in LF, instead of being too afraid to ask Sori to try RF after he didn't work out in CF. Maybe we could have brought up Soto earlier instead of trading for Kendall?

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 2, 2008 1:49 PM CST up 0 recs

murton

the cubs are power crazy when it comes to their outfielders.a good on base guy will not impress them.deal the kid and do him a favor as he is not one of lou,s favorites.at least he keeps his mouth shut unlike marquis

by NOMAR on Mar 2, 2008 8:41 AM CST 0 recs

Matt Murton doesn't have a role

Alfonso Soriano is the left fielder. Matt Murton plays left field, period. He offers no versatility. And if you recall he performed generally poorly as a pinch-hitter type in 2007. Especially with a 12-man pitching staff the Cubs can't afford Murton on the roster. The reserve outfielder needs to be somebody who can also help out in CF.

by MDBNIU on Mar 2, 2008 12:58 PM CST 0 recs

We can afford to send Murton to AAA

and let him wait there until one of Soriano or Fukudome have to go on the DL. But I think Jim is going to trade him for Matt's sake, which is nice, if not cutthroat-win-at-any-cost.

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 2, 2008 1:51 PM CST up 0 recs