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New Lineup created by Lou

Cubs_sweep_tiny by Chanman25 on

The lineup goes as:

Theriot SS
Soriano LF
Lee 1b
Ramirez 3b
Fukudome RF

then I think the rest will be:

DeRosa 2b
Soto C
Pie CF

I really do not understand what Lou is trying to accomplish here by putting Soriano 2b. Theriot really isn't that great of a leadoff hitter. This is going to be used on Friday. I don't really feel like bringing him up, but are they using this to see out the lineup would be if Brian Roberts was leading off?

Source: http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/03/soriano-to-bat.html

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Don't worry about that line-up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is what Piniella does, he plays around with stuff until he finds something he likes. For all we know It could just last a game or two, so nobody should really pay much attention to it until we see it during the regular season alot. Personally I think Soriano should either bat 1st(get the most productive Soriano), or 5th so he can drive in runs with his power. I think most likely he will be in one of those spots come opening day. Alot probably depends on his legs being healthy, if we get Roberts or Theriot(375 this spring) keeps hitting well in the regular season.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 12, 2008 4:29 PM CDT   0 recs

It wont last

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Mar 12, 2008 4:32 PM CDT   0 recs

No you don't
And you don't hate Ryan Theriot either.  You just have an informed view of his offensive value.  
Free the upper deck!

by zambranofan on Mar 12, 2008 4:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL
It's funny I don't know you, but when I read that on the trib's site I immediately thought of you and how demoralized you would feel when you heard about it.

by jazzypete on Mar 12, 2008 6:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's just a Spring Training game lineup
 Theriot will not be leading off on March 31st. Brian Roberts will be.
Lemon20Pie's 2008 PECOTA for Rich Hill: 204 IP 30 HR 75 BB 180 SO 1.35 WHIP 4.25 ERA

by lemon20pie on Mar 12, 2008 9:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

who this Roberts guy?
...is there a rumor about a trade for someone new?
Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Mar 12, 2008 10:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

More ABs?
those guys were singled out in recent interviews with Lou saying he wanted those guys to have more AB's - perhaps this will help that cause.
I have no response to that.

by stelmodad on Mar 12, 2008 4:48 PM CDT   0 recs

Enjoy this lineup now...
...because you won't see it much when the season starts.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 12, 2008 4:50 PM CDT   0 recs

Quote from Lou in the linked article...
"We want to keep Soriano nice and healthy and strong all year," Piniella said. "It seems to me, out of the leadoff spot, he'll want to do too much, run too soon. We'll see, just take a look at it."

So relax. He's just trying something out. I doubt it lasts more than a day.

And between now & Friday, he could change his mind again.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 12, 2008 4:54 PM CDT   0 recs

Several moving parts
There are lots of things Piniella is trying to sort through right now.   All are interconnected.   The health of Soriano...the necessity to have either Kosuke, Lee or Ramirez serve as 5 hitter...what to expect out of Theriot, Soto, Pie...  

It's a complicated proposition.  No doubt about it.  And none of the solutions are "ideal."    

by MDBNIU on Mar 12, 2008 5:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

why?
isnt he trying out lineups that could actually be beneficial....

by DartmouthCubsFan on Mar 13, 2008 2:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

sounds to me
like lou is attempting to ease soriano out of the lead off spot. that might be a good idea. i'm content to just let lou play with the lineup for a while and see what happens. afterall, it's only spring.

by anormal on Mar 12, 2008 6:09 PM CDT   0 recs

Agreed...
that this might be a way to ease Soriano out of leading off for when Roberts comes over to lead off...I'm of the opinion it is just a matter of time for the deal to get done...
D-LEE!

by airweino on Mar 12, 2008 7:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well,
i don't think it has anything to do with roberts one way or another.

by anormal on Mar 12, 2008 7:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

6:08 AM
...is when I'm typing this, so the brain's still a little foggy (coffee hasn't kicked in yet), but didn't Lou a line-up for facing left-handed pitchers last year where Soriano bat third?  It seems that Soriano (while preferring leadoff) is willing to bat in other slots if it helps the team out, but all you stat rats point out that leadoff is his most productive spot.  Thus Soriano helps the Cubs most (against righties) by batting first and there's really no need to ease him out.

by Rev Gunia on Mar 13, 2008 6:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

These are the kind of
problems you get when your GM goes after shiny things rather than constructing a roster with balance.

The reason Lou's lineups look wierd is the roster is wierd. We have an $18 million dollar lead-off man who doesn't take pitches and can't steal anymore, but can't hit anywhere except the 1-spot (and though we signed him to play center field, he can't play there, so we have to get rid of our other left-fielder). We have a whole menagerie of second basemen, but no shortstops who can hit, so our proposed solution is to get a second baseman. We signed a $12 million dollar right fielder ideally suited for the 2-hole, but we needed a 5-hole hitter, so he'll bat there.

The reason this lineup looks so baffling is the roster is so ill-constructed, in my opinion.

by jazzypete on Mar 12, 2008 6:45 PM CDT   0 recs

I disagree
The GM tried to get a lead-off short stop (furcal) but wasn't able to.  And I also don't think soriano was simply a "shiny thing".  If he doesn't get the leg injuries last year and had another 40/40 season in CF then it's a good signing.  And who is in this whole meagerie of 2nd baseman?  DeRosa is backed up by Fontenot, Cintron, Cedano, and EPatt...how many of those do you want to see as our everyday 2B?  And yes our SS isn't the greatest offensive SS but The  Oriole We Don't Speak Of is (theoretically) on the trading block...It's not like we can trade for Hanly Ramirez or Jose Reyes.
And while this roster may be ill-constructed it is better than the one we won the division with last year.  They way I look at it if we get TOWDSO we can put him leadoff Dome @2 Soriano @5 and Soto@6 and we have a pretty well constructed lineup
I'm likely to start as many MLB games as Neifi Perez in '08

by jds2 on Mar 12, 2008 7:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

IF
if the cubs do acquire roberts (or another left-handed hitter), it is doubtful that lou will bat him back to back with fukudome (another lefty).

by anormal on Mar 12, 2008 8:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He's a switch hitter but fair enough
The main point I was trying to make is it would be great if we could trade some prospects and get a high OBP SS with good speed and decent to good feilding but right now that's not available to us and this is the peice that fits best that is available...
I'm likely to start as many MLB games as Neifi Perez in '08

by jds2 on Mar 12, 2008 9:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You are correct that
there are no high-OBP SSs on the market right now (that we know of). However, I think you are looking at the roster construction a little more in the short term.

For example, if Furcal was such a necessity than missing out on him would cause us to overpay for Pierre (through trade) and Soriano (through free agency), then maybe he was worth the extra mil or two to get him. Maybe they should have known FOR SURE that Soriano could play center field before they gave him one of the richest contracts in baseball history to do it. Since he can't, he has made Murton essentially worthless to the team, and Soriano has become an overpaid left-fielder.  

As far as second basemen go (and its menagerie, a collection of animals in captivity, as in the glass menagerie, a Tennessee Williams play), those names you mention are but a few in the long line of stockpiled second basemen that Hendry collects every year is his tenure. Every year he has one or two too many second basemen, and every year it causes problems with people unhappy with playing time, and not having enough depth at other positions.

Hendry wastes more money every year on unneccesary roster filler and replacement level players than some GMs have in their whole budget. If there is a GM who gets less return on his budget than Hendry, I'd like to know who it is. He is a terribly inefficient GM, and these lineup problems are a symptom of that.

by jazzypete on Mar 12, 2008 9:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ben Zobrist
should be available and has a high OBP in the minors - he's like Ronny Cedeno, though, in that he has yet to hit in the majors.  If we can't get a bigger name, I'd kind of like throwing him in with Cedeno and Theriot and seeing what came out.
Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 12, 2008 11:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Theriot
is hitting 375/394/832 this spring and is tied with Matt Murton for second most hits on the team so far this spring.(also 3 for 4 in SB) So Ryan Theriot isn't going to lose his starting job anytime soon, and if he keeps hitting he's going to stay at the top of the order as well. Maybe I'm not the only one but I think it's possible that Theriot could improve to be a 280s/340s-350s/710-720's hitter. My reasons for that is because Theriot was hitting at the level 4 outta 6 months last season. If he is only a 250-260-310-320 OBP guy I don't mind him batting 8th and giving a guy like Cedeno a shot at some playing time. But if worse comes to worse we can always trade for a light hitting SS who can match Theriot offense production midseason with better defensivly.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 13, 2008 12:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm with you...
...on the optimistic view of Theriot.  The data set is too small to say that he can or cannot do it.  With that, if Lou has confidence in him, let the situation work itself out---as it seems to have with the starting pitcher situation here in ST. - TL
"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Mar 13, 2008 12:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

First off
How do you know we overpaid for soriano?  I seem to recall other teams we're competing for him to.
Second "Hendry wastes more money every year on unneccesary roster filler and replacement level players"  I guess I didn't realize that Fotenot, and cedeno we're getting paid so much they we're draining the budget.
And yes Hendry has made a few blunders but he also traded He Soip Choi for Derrick Lee and spare parts for Kenny Loften and ARam.
I'm likely to start as many MLB games as Neifi Perez in '08

by jds2 on Mar 13, 2008 6:38 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He got
Aram and Lee 4 or 5 years ago. I don't know about you, but I like my GMs to make smart moves more than every election cycle.

Also, the fact that Cedeno and Fontenot don't make much means nothing. I don't recall saying that EVERY player on the roster was overpaid, so bringing up players who aren't overpaid is an irrelevant argument.

Lastly, it doesn't matter whether other teams were competing for Soriano. Unless he is the perfect and only solution, overpaying is overpaying no matter how many other people want to do it. If there had been a bidding war for Alex Cintron, and we ended up giving him $8 mil per year, would that be ok since other teams were bidding on him? Clearly not.

I will say Hendry has been a little wiser with his money the last couple years (Marquis signing notwithstanding), but I think that is more a function of Lou telling him what to do than anything else.

by jazzypete on Mar 13, 2008 8:46 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Overpaying for soriano?
If other teams are competing for soriano and they're offers were close to the cubs then they didn't overpay for him.  Cost is based on Market.  Saying the cubs overpayed for Soriano seems to indicate they could of got him for much less.  Now in the case of Marquis they probably did overpay since I don't think other teams had any offers close to ours.
And the only reason I brought up cedano and fontenot was because you said Hendry waste budget on roster fillers...well our bench players are probably paid close to what other teams pay their bench players
I'm likely to start as many MLB games as Neifi Perez in '08

by jds2 on Mar 13, 2008 11:29 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

problem is
Soriano is a terrible choice to bat second. He swings and misses a lot, which hurts the running game, he is unlikely to try to hit to the right side, and if he gets one with one out and the big hitters coming up, he will not have a running game. Presumably, they signed him to do all the things he can do. #2 doesn't work. I'd rather have him leadoff, where at least his lack of plate discipline doesn't have as much negative effect on first inning rallies, and his ability to hit a leadoff HR can add  excitement and value.
"I am a Cubs fan, but I needed an American League team...so as a young girl, I became very interested and enamored of the Yankees." Senator Hillary Clinton

by ExNorthsider on Mar 12, 2008 7:27 PM CDT   0 recs

remember that it's only spring
soriano is a terrible choice to bat second during the SEASON, but if it gets soriano comfortable mentally away from the lead off spot and makes it easier for him to end up a bit farther down in the order, then soriano may be a good choice for batting second in the SPRING.

by anormal on Mar 12, 2008 7:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Both good posts
and both good thoughts in this thread within the diary.

And let's all remember as we complain about the roster/lineup not fitting together, that it may fit together a whole lot better later this year or next year depending on how Pie develops.  Next year, he may be a good 5/6 hitter allowing Fukudome to hit 2nd.

The problem remains - how do you balance Sori, DLee, and Rami in the lineup without batting them right in a row and without batting one of them 6th?

The other thing to remember about Soriano is that the reason he bats better as a leadoff hitter is because he bats better without men on base.  In a certain sense I think it may just be best to say, he SLGs enough to keep him batting first and pretend the lineup really starts at #2.

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 12, 2008 9:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, for the money Soriano is making a season
 He better start learning to hit "with men on base". I will buy this line of thinking that Soriano should hijack this offense and lead off because he's "more comftorable" leading off. That is a flat out joke.
Lemon20Pie's 2008 PECOTA for Rich Hill: 204 IP 30 HR 75 BB 180 SO 1.35 WHIP 4.25 ERA

by lemon20pie on Mar 12, 2008 9:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

EDIT: gd IT!!!!
 I will NEVER buy this line of thinking etcetera etcetera
Lemon20Pie's 2008 PECOTA for Rich Hill: 204 IP 30 HR 75 BB 180 SO 1.35 WHIP 4.25 ERA

by lemon20pie on Mar 12, 2008 9:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If that were simply the issue...
...I wouldn't be so frustrated.

I just think it's plain stupid to put the two guys in your lineup who get on base the least in front of your guys who are supposed to drive in runs.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 12, 2008 9:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If Sori could hit with men on base
he'd be the ideal #3 hitter - low-OBP, high-SLG.  Of course, the irony of that is that the reason you want a low-OBP, high-SLG hitter in the 3-spot is that it is the lineup-spot least likely to lead off an inning, and... Soriano hits best when leading off.

Assuming you can't teach him to hit with men on base, what do you do with him?

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 12, 2008 11:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you have it backwards
OBP is most important in the 3 hole, even more so than leadoff. That's why Derrek Lee should not be moved from that spot.

by Luis on Mar 13, 2008 2:14 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought
that the most ideal lineup went from high OBP to low in descending order. I think a lot of lineup construction truthisms, like fastest guy hits 1st, best hitter hits 3rd, power hitter hits 4th, etc are more by historical convention than empirical effectiveness.

by jazzypete on Mar 13, 2008 8:48 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Lineup construction
confuses me as a lot of what I am reading more recently is counter-intuitive.  Here is an introductory article on some rethinking of lineups:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/constructing-lineups

A relevant quote for us re: the 3-spot:

"One of the problems is that teams often put their highest OBP batter in the third position, but the #3 spot is the one LEAST likely to lead off the second inning. James said it, others agreed, and The Book confirms it. In addition, The Book found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and nobody on. So the run value of every hit (except the home run) is lower in the third position than in any other of the top five positions. That's why they recommend putting your fifth-best hitter in the three spot. Whether or not you believe that, the Angels should bat Vlad fourth."

So, let's assume the Cubs acquire a speedy-lefty middle-IF with a .375 OBP, we'll call him Ryan Bobberts.  What lineup could we have?

Well, Ryan Bobberts makes the most sense to lead off.  And positions 6-7-8 are fairly clear, depending on whether Riot or DeRo is displaced:
Soto/DeRo
FPie
Riot/Soto

That leaves Sori, Dome, DLee, and Rami for 2-3-4-5 and let's step back and say, that's a really nice problem to have, figuring out how these guys best mesh, but batting Sori, while he's an atypical 2-hole hitter has it's advantages if it lets you bat the left-handed Dome 3rd, while one of Bobberts or Sori is on 1B.   So, I think I end up batting them
Sori
Dome
DLee
Rami

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 13, 2008 2:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well
all i know is i like dome hitting in front of dlee and aramis.  soriano breaks up the lefties.  who knows, i think the bottom line is we will have a good lineup this season.  
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 13, 2008 6:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's a big if
"It's that wonderul relief that comes when they stop hitting you in the head with a hammer."

by lostinthevines on Mar 13, 2008 6:59 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm pretty sure Theriot
isn't sniffing the top of the lineup in the regular season.  This became clearer to me after reading the Sun Times article on Sori at #2.  Lou is fiddling with Soriano in the lineup as a preview for the acquisition of the speedy-lefty-middleIF.  This is what Wittenmyer says, "The most important part of the move might be that it was made with more than two weeks left in spring training. That gives Soriano time to adjust rather than scramble if the Cubs acquire leadoff hitter ___ from ___, as many in the organization still feel is inevitable despite the would-be deal being in a holding pattern for four months" (edited to protect the innocent from further abuse).

Now later in the article he suggests Theriot might bat 2nd and everyone move down a spot, giving us:
L-SMIF
Riot
Sori
DLee
Rami
Dome
Soto
FPie

But that lineup seems impossible when you look at it, given the investment made in Dome and the emphasis on breaking of the RH-hitters with leftys, so I'm discounting that idea.

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 13, 2008 2:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

We bought Soriano, knowing what he was/is
It's like buying a sports car and saying, "Well, I paid this much, you better be able to tow my boat and have enough room to carry all the kids for a family vacation."

Soriano is still a good hitter, he's just not going to be a high OBP hitter and he doesn't appear to be a RBI-type hitter, either.  The way I look at it is this - as long as Jim Hendry thinks his lead-off hitter has to steal bases, there aren't many better lead-off men to get the most ABs in the Cubs lineup than Alfonso Soriano, who at least creates a good number of runs comapred to the outs he also makes.  

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 12, 2008 11:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I kind of agree
But I think It's more likely that Pie develops as a #1 or #2 batter with his speed.  I'm hoping he starts hitting the ball to the opposite feild more and maybe bunting for hits.
Also, if Soto becomes the hitter most of us expect/hope he becomes he would fit great batting behind ARam.
I'm likely to start as many MLB games as Neifi Perez in '08

by jds2 on Mar 12, 2008 9:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pie's strength is not likely
going to be OBP unless he really takes a huge step forward (or several good steps forward) and becomes a Beltran type player, in which case we won't be talking about him hitting 1st or 2nd unless the Cubs lineup is totally stacked.  I think Pie has a good chance of becoming the rich man's Jacque Jones.  He could still become more, don't get me wrong.

Along those lines, let's not make his speed his primary attribute when he's slugged very well, especially for his age, throughout his minor league career.

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 12, 2008 11:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

in my opinion
lou should consider batting lee 2nd.

by anormal on Mar 12, 2008 10:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's an interesting idea
but I don't think it has legs unless/until Lee's power outage continues.  If Lee becomes the right-handed Todd Helton, then the long-term lineup construction is easy:
Lefty/Speedy-MiddleIF
DLee
Dome
Rami
Sori
FPie
Soto
DeRo/Riot/EPat/RCed

But if Lee's SLGing is one of the top 2 or 3 in the lineup, it just won't happen.

Soriano must leadoff... to provide adequate protection for Big Z!

by DGU on Mar 12, 2008 11:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I've seen a better
lineup at a precinct.

This is a joke and disgusting.  I think someone needs to start a FireLou.com immediately as this is as insane as anything "Toothpick" did during his tenure.

I can only hope this is a ploy to get Soriano out of lead-off, acquire Roberts, play DeRosa at SS, and get Theriot a ticket to Iowa.

I can only hope.

by socalbob on Mar 12, 2008 9:49 PM CDT   0 recs

IT'S SPRING TRAINING, FOLKS!!!
"It's that wonderul relief that comes when they stop hitting you in the head with a hammer."

by lostinthevines on Mar 13, 2008 7:00 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I fail to see
how this could possibly be worse than batting Jose Macias or Neifi Perez leadoff. Lou's tinkering, it's only ST, so let it slide. And remember:

Theriot leading off > Neifi leadding off > Macias leading off > a pile of feral pig droppings leading off.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Mar 13, 2008 7:05 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

GV -
great pickup on that stupid quote from Joe Morgan. Why they saddle John Miller with that deutsche bank is beyond me.
"It's that wonderul relief that comes when they stop hitting you in the head with a hammer."

by lostinthevines on Mar 13, 2008 7:16 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's part-and-parcel
of the ESPN retirement plan for ex-athletes.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Mar 13, 2008 8:49 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I disagree
but only with the order of the last three...I think you give Neifi and Macies way to much credit
I'm likely to start as many MLB games as Neifi Perez in '08

by jds2 on Mar 13, 2008 8:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If this trade goes down...
would you really not be happy with this line up

Robets 2b
Soriano LF
Lee 1b
Ramirez 3b
Fukudome RF
Theriot SS
Soto C
Pie CF

by mossey12 on Mar 12, 2008 10:06 PM CDT   0 recs

Any lineup with Roberts leading off
 Wouldn't upset me too much but I wouldn't want Soriano hitting 2nd. Having someone who'll strike out 160 times a season hitting second, a spot which needs a good contact hitter at, scares me.

FWIW, for the 50th time, here's what my lineup would look like with Roberts:

  1. Roberts - almost as ideal a leadoff hitter that you can get. Most certainly the most ideal on this team anyway.
  2. Fukudome - Good contact hitter who can spray the ball anywhere and a great hit and run hitter.
  3. Lee -
  4. Arm -
  5. Soriano
  6. Derosa - I'd play him at 2nd (roberts SS) or SS whichever. Theriot isn't a great SS where the loss on Defense will be that glaring.
  7. Soto
  8. Pie
 It's righty heavy but what are you gonna do. IF Pie can play up to his potential, then you could move him up a little. That's a solid lineup.
Lemon20Pie's 2008 PECOTA for Rich Hill: 204 IP 30 HR 75 BB 180 SO 1.35 WHIP 4.25 ERA

by lemon20pie on Mar 12, 2008 10:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed with one exception
I just don't see DeRosa or BR playing SS. This moves Soto to 6 and either combo of Theriot and Pie in 7/8. Ideally, Pie shows some of his slugging and could turn into a very valuable 7th hitter, but until then I would probably position those two based on match ups.

by okiecubbie on Mar 12, 2008 11:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Has anyone run those fancy run simulations on this
Or any lineups for that matter?

I haven't a clue how to do it.  Just curious as to what the results might be.

by IllinoisCubs on Mar 13, 2008 12:07 AM CDT   0 recs

Yeah.
Here you are.

I've tweaked the projections a bit since the last time I ran the sims, so this isn't directly comparable to any of them. Comes to about 4.953 runs per game, which isn't that great considering the players Lou has to work with.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 13, 2008 12:13 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, not so good
I myself wouldn't mind seeing Fukudome lead off.  At least this is an improvement over Soriano leading off and Theriot batting second with that same lineup.  

Based on those lineup projections, Soriano is better for the team anywhere not in the leadoff spot, so this is a step in the right direction, no?  

by IllinoisCubs on Mar 13, 2008 12:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The lineup simulator also seems utterly convinced
that Theriot should bat ninth. I've never been able to feed it any set of players, using any set of projections, that it didn't put Theriot ninth. So, sure, one step forward. But, really, two steps back and then some - Soriano as a number two hitter is pointless and Theriot as a leadoff hitter is just plain dumb.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 13, 2008 12:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Your data set for...
...HAL on Theriot is too small for him to make any accurate projections. -TL
"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Mar 13, 2008 12:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So you have some frame of reference...
...here's a lineup where DeRosa leads off, but otherwise it looks pretty reasonablet to me.

I bring it up mostly so we can look at this countervailing lineup where Roberts replaces DeRosa and everyone else stays the same.

Probably our most optimal lineup with Roberts would be:


  2. Brian Roberts
  3. Derrek Lee
  4. Kosuke Fukudome
  5. Aramis Ramirez
  6. Geovanny Soto
  7. Alfonso Soriano
  8. Felix Pie
  9. Pitcher
  10. Ryan Theriot

If we don't land Roberts, I'd really like to take a look at Fukudome leading off, Lee batting second, and find someone to bat between Lee and Ramirez out of Soto and DeRosa.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 13, 2008 12:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

When
you run these simulations, I assume you use the same OBP and SLG wherever you put people. Would it be a more accurate simulation if (for those who seem to only be able to hit well in one spot in the order--cough, cough, Soriano), to plug in his actual lifetime stats from a given spot in the order. SO if you are simming a lineup with him hitting 6th, put his 6-spot hitting stats there. I'd be curious whether you got the same results or something different this way.

Also, is there a reason steals are not considered in this scenario? It seems an effective basestealer would effectively have a higher sluggin percentage, since they can often turn a single into a double on the next pitch. So a hypothetical player that only hits .260/.290/.350, but literally steals every time he gets on base (so like 150 steals a year), would probably get put in the 8-spot in the sim, but nobody would ever advise putting him there.

by jazzypete on Mar 13, 2008 9:05 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I've done that before...
...and so didn't see the need to do that again, at least that late at night. I'll look at it again later on today, if there's a lot of interest in it.

You're right that the lineup simulator is ignoring several things that could probably impact the results - not just stolen bases. Baserunning in general, strikeout tendancies, home run rate, and GIDP tendencies are all things that Tom Tango looks at in his lineup simulator, which I don't have access to offhand.

But OBP and SLG are the two stats that generally get you 90% of the way, and Theriot's a good base stealer, but he's certainly not elite enough to change the analysis much.

Also, and I know this sounds counterintuitive, but realistically basestealing is more productive in the bottom half of the order. Players at the top of the order don't have to run as much because they're batting in front of players who can drive them in very well. Base stealing is more important when you're not hitting in front of the best sluggers on the team.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 13, 2008 11:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agree with Colin...
As I do silently on many issues, given the statistical analysis rationale that often applies. BUT, another consideration is how the media would annihilate Lou for batting a $130mn OF in the 6 hole. It just wouldn't happen unfortunately.

As our rally extender/second leadoff guy I really like it, but even if we get Roberts its not going to happen.

"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"

by The Ryno and I Know on Mar 13, 2008 9:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Eh.
Everybody said the Cubs would never pay Fukudome that kind of money to bat second, but we're paying Soriano even more money to do the honors right now.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 13, 2008 11:49 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

2nd and 6th
are, media perception-wise, two completely different issue pieces.

The media is educated to sell "leading off" and "batting cleanup" and not much else.

However, they would lay off of 2nd bc it appears as "being 2nd is right behind 1st so its like being second best on the team" and the story of putting him 6th is much more controversial for the media than putting him 2nd.

If you had a murders' row of lee-fuku-ram-soto-sori, well then the media would continue to press the issue of "Lou, is Soto better then Sori? Did the team overpay for a 6th hitter? Does Sori have some physical ailments you're not disclosing?"  

Mariotti would drool over drivel like this. Its true. Sori would never bat lower than 5th if healthy.

"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"

by The Ryno and I Know on Mar 13, 2008 2:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Everyone read this
"Piniella said both moves were just experiments, but there could be some finality if they appear to be working"

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-080312-alfonso-soriano-cubs-batting- order,1,5296907.story

So if you don't think this line-up will work you have nothing to worry about. If it somehow works well then Piniella is a genius and all us fans are idiots. Personally I think Piniella will try it for a few days and make a change again. But with the way Theriot has hit this spring, I wouldn't be surprised if Theriot stays in the leadoff spot but Soriano and Fukudome are flipped flopped. I know Piniella wants to have a guy who can run leading off. But without Roberts most likely Soriano will get moved back to the lea