PECOTA And The Cubs

 And while I think Rick should have gotten out the game long ago, Nate's attempt to try and measure intangible quantitatively just lends a little extra credibility to what was a very silly Morrisey story.

After winning a World Series and more games the last two seasons than any team in baseball except the New York Yankees, the White Sox should have earned a little respect.Right?

Well, maybe from real baseball people, but not in the surreal world of computers.

Baseball Prospectus, considered the new-age statistical bible, projects the White Sox to finish with a 72-90 record this season.

"Well, we're screwed now," team captain Paul Konerko said with a sarcastic laugh. "I guess we'll just have to battle through."

I wonder if we'll get this exact same article every year now, rehashed slightly each time.

The full article isn't up anymore, but you can still read Fire Joe Morgan's excellent flaying of the article here.

But the biggest pile of crap was the way he acknowledges that PECOTA was the only one to see the White Sox bad season last year, but then dismisses it because PECOTA thought it was because the White Sox got old, whereas the real reason the White Sox had a bad year was . . .wait for it . . .They had a bad year!  Way to stand up for tautology, Rick!

But the White Sox won't have another bad year because they're too proud.  He's looked into Paul Konerko's soul and knows he's embarrassed and won't let it happen again.  As opposed to that lame-ass slacker Travis Hafner, who had a bad year for the Indians but won't bounce back because he doesn't care, I guess.

If Morrissey had handed that article in as a paper in one of my classes, well, I guess it would have gotten a B- because it was spelled correctly and the use of proper grammar.  But it would have gotten an F if I would just grade on his logic alone.  He'd get a paper back covered in red ink.

Sure, the computer analysis can't take in everything and we'll always root for the guy who goes above and beyond what analysts (of any stripe) say he can do.  (I mean, isn't that Simon's role on American Idol, to get fans to cheer even more for the contestants he says are no good?) (I'm thinking of the movie Gattaca here, too, for those whose wives/gfs aren't AI watchers.)

But even then, the statistical models tell us something about which teams are going beyond what would likely have been expected.  We may not know why.  Or we may argue why, if it's because Dusty mismanaged the team or too many injuries struck or the curse of the goat, or what.

Paying attention to the statistics does not have to run contrary to looking for heart or grit in baseball.

Also, I am not sure what is meant at the end of your post about the Cubs beeing too addicted to stats?

The Cubs were unlucky to some degree just as the Whitesox were super lucky...But I thought the comments about the organizations at the top of the list v. the bottom was a reasonable position.

The Cubs only philosophy that I can discern under Hendry has been 1) Cover your butt, 2) stockpile pitching because you are going to need mass quantities to overcome zero development and ignorance about abuse of arms, 3) Let a million flowers grow, i.e., just draft lots of athletes with little or no demonstration of baseball skills and hope that one of them eventually blooms, and 4) Stick with Old school managers and let them cast the vision for the roster v. having them implement what you think is important for winning (changing a bit after the baseclogger left town)...

The final point, which is a good one is try and spend to fill the holes.