Hendry's Restraint: Offseason Review
by DGU on Mar 25, 2008 7:47 PM CDT
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PrintWe may yet see The Big Trade, although it seems unlikely. We could well see some roster paring, if Jim Hendry moves Marquis, Murton, and/or Cedeno. But all in all, this offseason is done and Jim Hendry's work can be analyzed. I think he has done a good job and I think, in particular, we can highlight the value of his restraint.
By restraint, I mean that the fearless captain said no to Texas on Byrd and got a better option in Reed Johnson. He said no to KazMat and was on track to get a better option in Brian Roberts. But then he also said no when the O's asked if they could please clean out our cupboards just as they did to Houston. This restraint is, clearly, in marked contrast to Ed Wade who said yes to McPhail and yes to KazMat and now has no pitching.
The big pickup of the Winter was Kosuke Fukudome, filling the Cubs need in many ways - OBP, check; RF defense, check; LH bat, check. But the Cubs also added undervalued pitching depth, grabbing a 5th starter upgrade in Jon Lieber, and several relief options, notably Ascanio and Lahey. Johnson and Cintron, as well, are cheap depth, who could both become more. This depth gives Hendry the ability to make minor in-season trades without dealing from the farm system.
One other offseason move needs to be mentioned, although I hope it does not become the focus of this thread. Mark Prior, who is now throwing curveballs, was non-tendered, a move that may look ill-considered sooner rather than later (although I am sure there are many here who believe Prior will never be healthy and only sire unhealthy children for generations to come). The move looks to have been based more on mutual exhaustion of one another than on solid game strategy, although if Prior never throws an inning in 2008, it will be yet another example of Hendry's apt restraint.
What do you think of Jim Hendry's offseason?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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This is an excellent summary.
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I give him an A-
It's an old clithe that sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. It was obvious to anyone who followed the Cubs' doings this offseason how much Hendry wanted Brian Roberts. The fact that he is not a Cub makes it equally obvious that Baltimore wanted everything but the kitchen sink for him, and if that's the case, Hendry definitely did the right thing. The Orioles needed that trade a lot more than we did; we have a second baseman, and IMO, a pretty good one who I also happen to like and am proud to have on the team. So, I say to Andy "the Clown" MacPhail, enjoy another 90-loss season and fifth place finish in the AL East, and I hope your owner enjoys another season of his man-love fetish for Brian Roberts from his skybox. We'll send you a postcard from the World Series, Andy.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Agreed with the A-
Not much worth trading for or picking up was available this offseason. Lets see how the season unfolds. There could be some deadline deals.
by LT on Mar 25, 2008 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Well said about the Orioles.
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Thats true
and it would have been a bad signing if it happen. But you can't count that as a negative because it never happen. I'm sure Hendry had some trades or F/A signings that would have been great but fell through as well.
I'm not...
... using it as a negative. I'm just trying to correct the poster who said that Hendry said no to Matsui. Hendry's rumored offer to Matsui was a bad one but the Cubs lucked out when Matsui went to the Astros. Hendry was being given credit when it was not deserved.
My overall feeling about Hendry is that he is a GM who simply works with a checkbook. He spends, sometimes too much. I've seen very little creativity out of him. Yes, he decides what he wants in the FA market and gets it often by overspending. He's been able to work his way out of his mistakes by spending more money. I'm not saying he's good or bad, I'm just saying he spends money and thats pretty much it.
DmL
Recollections and response
I thought I remembered Matsui preferring Houston for playing time, but entertaining the Cubs offer if they upped the $, which Hendry refused to do. Have I misremembered this? Anyone else with a different recollection, or better yet a citation that can clarify cloud memories?
Otherwise, I appreciate your view on Hendry, but I disagree with it. Part of what I sensed in this off-season was just the opposite of the spend-whatever-to-get-it-done picture I read in your assessment. Hendry could have spent on Rowand and traded Pie for Roberts but did not. Last year is the only year in his tenure I see him leading a spending charge and the one thing we have to note is that by spending so much money (instead of trading for pieces), he has allowed the farm system to begin rebuilding some strength.
Hendry
He didn't spend for Rowand, etc because there was no more money for him to spend. I'm thrilled that the Cubs made the playoffs last year and hopefully they'll do so again this upcoming season... but Hendry has made his name by overspending for players. He has constantly done this in the bullpen... Remlinger, Hawkins, Eyre and Howry... Hendry goes out and finds the guy he wants and pays peak price when these guys are at the top of their game. The results are mixed on Eyre and Howry, horrid on Remlinger and Hawkins. He gave Marquis a truely horrid deal and he broke the bank for a 7 year deal for Alfonso Soriano and in year two, Alfonso is already showing signs of age.
Jim Hendry has spent more over the last several years than the vast majority of other GMs and has not gotten the return on investment. Look over his entire tenure. Hendry is lucky that he has the Trib Co checkbook because it has enabled him to take advantage of the Pirates and Marlins via trade as well as spending and overspending to cover up mistakes.
I think that the Cubs will win the NL Central this year however there are at a minimum ten other GMs/Presidents that I'd much prefer to see running the Cubs. I'd love to see Hendry try to exist on the Twins or Royals budget... it would be quite a shock to him.
DmL
I disagree
If the Cubs wanted Rowand or whoever they could have signed him instead of Fukudome. Hendry has made a name for himself by making good trades actually, getting his players to resign for below market value. Sure he overpaid for a few like Marquis, Remlinger back in 03, and Eyre. Personally I think Soriano would have gotten his contract or simliar to it no matter what, and the Cubs needed to a add a marquee hitter last offseason so they were willing to overpay a little. But teams with big payrolls are allowed to overpay a little bit so they spend with less caution. For example many think Theo Epstein is this great GM, but look at how much money he wasted last offseason on JD Drew and Julio Lugo, and thats not the first time he did stuff like that(Edgar Renteria is another example). I think Theo is a very good GM, but has overspent and wasted alot more money then Hendry has, because he has a huge payroll and can. Just like Hendry can overpay a little bit and take more gambles then a smaller market team.
The main problem Hendry has had as GM with the Cubs is not getting any quality postion players from the minor leagues. Sure it's partly his fault since he's running everything, but I doubt Hendry is scouting highschool and college players and so he's often taking advice from the wrong people. He tried to fix it recently by hiring Tim Wilkins and it seems to be working so far. But when you haven't gotten one quality everyday regular from your minor league system in the five years since Hendry has been here. It causes to spend alot of money, and often on mediocre players to fill postions. Hendry has also had some bad luck with what happen to Prior and Wood over the years as well. But overall Hendry has pulled off some great trades getting Lee, Ramirez, Nomar and others. He's also resigned every single player he has always wanted to resign, and usually for below market value. So for every time he overpaid for a Neifi Perez, Jason Marquis or whoever he has someone else on the team who is making well below market value.
by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thats True
the Astros upped the offer a little bit. The Cubs were offering something like 3y-13-15m, and the Astros paid more then that.
regardless...
... of who offered more, the statement of Hendry "saying no" to Matsui is just mischaracterizing the situation. The Astros made their offer to Matsui, the Cubs made theirs, sides may have raised their offers and Matsui made his choice. This doesn't change the fact that Hendry offered a contract so someone for far more than he should have, especially in light of the fact that he had someone better starting at that position.
DmL
How many
good contract has Hendry probably offered to players, that they didn't accept? Probably alot. So you can't say it's a negative against Hendry when the player never signed with us. Sure Matsui going to the Astros saved Hendry butt, just like losing out on a good player probably cost us in the past.
I don't think it is "regardless"
If Hendry is a guy who spends unconscionably, as you argue, then he could have offered Matsui a 4th year or an extra mill a year. He bid to a level and then stopped. That's restraint. (And we don't know how playing time would have worked out with Matsui, DeRosa, and Theriot, had KazMat been signed. I still think Theriot and Matsui would have platooned.)
Anyway, there are two contracts I see Hendry having radically overspent on. There are several minor contracts that were Hendry awarding players he liked - Neifi, Blanco, etc. But none of those broke the bank. The burden contracts are Marquis and Soriano. The former, I think, was a gamble. Hendry thought he could buy low on Marquis and sell high on him this winter. So far, he hasn't been able. Soriano was a guy Hendry decided to break the bank to get so that the Cubs could get the top hitter. You have to ask yourself if getting to the playoffs was worth the last few years of this contract. I think it is. I also think Soriano's contract looks a lot better compared to Torii Hunter's.
Hendry
You are going to an extreme. Just because Hendry wasn't willing to go to a fourth year (and we have no idea if he was or wasn't, if the Cubs offered more or less than the Astros, etc) doesn't mean that he didn't show fiscal irresponsibility with it came to Matsui.
DmL
Extremes?
I'm not sure how a 3 year 15 mill contract is fiscal irresponsibility for a team like the Cubs, given their payroll. I think that is my biggest disagreement with you. You fault Hendry for throwing his $ around. But I just assume that is part of what he can do, given how much $ we all spend on the Cubs. I would argue, in fact, that some of Hendry's exorbinant signings have made things harder on our division rivals.
You are missing my point
I am not trying to argue for or against the Matsui signing. Yes, I think it would be dumb but I am still trying to get to the larger issues here. The first is that saying that "Hendry said no to Matsui" really is not accurate. We don't know whether he did or didn't because we don't know if Matsui went back to the Cubs and said "Houston offered me X, if you don't give me more than I'm going elsewhere." Moreover the fact that Hendry offered too much in the first place really contradicts the essence of Hendry spurning Matsui.
Yes, spending money is part of what Hendry can do, but thats really all I've ever seen him do. He spends money, thats his MO. His big trades have been a result of other team's financial inadequacies, too. I've seen very little else out of Hendry than someone who can take out a checkbook.
And furthermore $15M for 3 years for Matsui is fiscally irresponsible whether your the Cubs, Yankees, Twins or Pirates.
Besides pulling out the checkbook, we have the following examples
Giving up nothing in the three-way deal that got back a superstar (at the time) and a future LF (Murton).
Finding Michael Barrett in the bargain bin.
Recognizing that DeRosa's year in TX was for real.
And of course, on the flip side of the successes with Barrett and DeRosa, you can see the risks that didn't pan out as Hendry hoped to revive Burnitz and Hollandsworth, and the risks that weren't either massive successes or failures - like Dempster.
As for the 3/15 - having a 3/15 contract on the books isn't going to keep you from winning, so I don't see it as being irresponsible. Irresponsible is what the Mets gave Luis Castillo.
Nomar
Looking at OPS+, Nomar was far from the peak of his career that made him a superstar. Was he still valuable, yes, but he was no longer a superstar. He was worth the risk, but his career numbers took a steady decline starting in 2001.
And what makes the Matsui deal and deals like it irresponsible is not just having that deal on your books, its what it does to other deals. Overpaying a player in both dollars and years isn't simply in a vacuum, it has an impact on the entire market. It drives up player salary for equivalent and better players. A bad deal impacts the entire marketplace.
As for Barrett, its was a great pick-up, but, again, it was available because the Expos were unwilling and/or unable to meet his growing salary as he entered his arbitration years.
DmL
Two responses
1 - Shouldn't the Cubs be precisely the kind of team who wants to drive up the market since they make more money that any other team in our division? When the Cubs gave JJ 3/16, the Cards had to do the same thing for Encarnacion, when the Cubs gave Soriano that massive contract, the Astros had to do the same thing for Carlos Lee. Look at it this way - if Jim Hendry didn't drive the market on certain players, when he is buying first, wouldn't that be a tactical blunder?
2 - It seems like every example we can give for Hendry being able to make a good deal gets passed off on other teams financial limitations. I'm trying to come up with any possible good deal, then, that wouldn't fall to the same criteria. In other words, you've defined terms to this debate which make it impossible for Hendry to do anything salutory.
Oh, and a third thing - thanks for the thoughtful discussion!
Financial Constraints
The thing is that the Cubs have financial constraints like other teams. Just recently we've seen that budget expanded to the $120M range, but we're only a few years removed from a $90M payroll and we have no idea what the next owner is going to be willing to pay out in salary. A big part of the cost of the Cubs high salary has been tickets that are now near tops in the sport. I guess I'm just saying that there is a really big financial picture, part of that being the direct impact of paying out big salaries, the other being more indirect. Part of my issue is that I do not like the fiscal irresponsibility of endless spending and I believe it will come home to roost.
As for your second point it just seems to me that the majority of Hendry's moves have been in one of two areas, spending large amounts of money (only a recent trend) or trading for players via salary dump. In the later Hendry really gave up very little talent. I guess my issue is that I've seen very little from Hendry outside of that.
I guess what I'd ask you to consider is what Jim Hendry's track record was a year ago. If you're asking me to assess the overall tenure I think its been tremendously mediocre and the recent success has been a product of Hendry being able to spend dollars to cover up some pretty big organizational issues.
DmL
well, IIRC he got outspent for Furcal
IIRC as well, some were saying he got overruled on Furcal too, i.e. he was willing to go higher, but the higher ups shut the checkbook. Regardless of what happened (or didn't happen as the case may be), I'd have to add this non-signing to the Hendry report card, and IMO, it goes on the positive side.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Furcal was different
He signed his 3-yr with the Dodgers based on the higher avg/yr deal and the fact he was only 28 at the time. This way, he'd be up for FA again at age 31, instead of with the Cubs' offer, it'd be age 33. With the Dodger deal yes, he did leave overall more cash on the table [initially] but the probability he'd score one more big FA deal at age 31 is much higher than at age 33. He gambled that he'd score more at age 31 FA than with age 33 FA. Only time will tell if that was a prudent move.
Hendry's arms were not tied. He was given the OK to drop $50M on this guy. Glad it didn't happen. Only Pierre's $45M deal a year later was worse, for that type of player.
I don't know that you can say "overspending" on FA...
He may pay too much in your opinion but the numbers on KFuk were pretty much on par for a player that fills the needs this well. I believe Hendry is fairly thrifty with his $$$. I believe that he spent what he had to to ensure that we filled the holes we needed to.
As for passing on Roberts (for the asking price at least), I am, and probably will be all season, up in the air. I like Roberts a lot but I also like DeRo a lot. We will see on that. It is looking more like Gallagher should have been included with no hesitation at this point. I know Al, you will say that he will be good someday, and perhaps he will. I maintain my argument that if necessary in the future, we could do the same with some of our stars...rebuild.
As for my friend Prior. I am not here to wish him troubles but I will be ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED if he ends up making Hendry regret not retaining him. SHOCKED. The guy is not durable and not resiliant. I only feel bad that Woody got thrown into that duo all those years as the fragile fellows. Woody is a bad ass who is doing what is needed to regain his old form IMO. Prior is simply a primadonna (sp).
Damn Nutrisystem...I'm freakin dyin for some Italian beef!
by Kinky Reggae on Mar 26, 2008 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, I gave him an A-. I think he has done well. More can ALWAYS be done
so I cannot deduct points for not making miracles happen.
Damn Nutrisystem...I'm freakin dyin for some Italian beef!
by Kinky Reggae on Mar 26, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd say
B+, and would have been a A+ if we got Roberts without giving up to much. But overall getting Fukudome to sign with us for less then other teams were offering. Bringing in Lieber(a quality veteran Sp) for the bottom of our rotation, and as insurance for Marquis or Dempster. Resigning Kerry Wood for below market value, and adding guys like Cintron and Johnson for nothing to improve our bench. Even dumping guys like Jacque Jones and Will Ohman and getting a guy with some potential in Ascanio in return was a good move. So overall I would say it was Hendry second good offseason in a row.
nice post
i still don't understand the love for prior. i mean how long can a team keep um loading tons of money for a disabled list (i'm gonna be a star) filler. he had to go and he did. now move on and never look back. as far as ss i love theriot but there were no other options out there at all. renteria was traded but......!! i would like to have some insight on him. there has to be something up with a player of
his caliber that consistently gets moved. maybe clubhouse cancer? idk but from the outside looking in he raises questions with me. we alot of addition by subtraction. fuku was a brilliant signing. i want roberts bad but the price to pay is idiotic at best probably.
as far as cf goes i guess let pie play and get this experiment over one way or another. i'm not a fan whatsoever but hoping for the best. overall i cant see anything hendry could have done differently to field a better team. for what teams gave up to get the pitching that was out there i dont think we had the players or the money to do it. given the impending sale and all.
overall regardless of what is or might have been are biggest enemy in determining our fate will be --like always---HEALTH!!
if we can stay healthy i think we run away with the division and make a big time run in the playoffs.
p.s. cant be a damn word said about hendry. he provided everything a team needs for a WS run. its up to the players now.
GO CUBS GO!!!!!
You make a good point that I neglected
but fits in the "Restraint" theme - Hendry decided not to block Pie or Soto when there were C and CF options on the free agent market. I think both were the right decisions, despite all the early season pushing for Hunter or Rowand. Given the contracts they signed, I'm very glad we stuck with Pie.
Gave him a "B"
You mentioned a lot of good points, all which are worth the reference. My hangup? Starting pitching. Good starting pitching wins World Series. The Cubs rotation - as is - will be competitive but I fear that unless there is a one major change sometime by July 31st (only 128 days until the NWT deadline), the rotation will have to stand on their heads to get the team to and win the WS. As for the Padre employee, I couldn't even give a rats' ass.
Agreed
The Cubs are very solid in overall pitching but they don't have a dominating 1-3 like they did in 2003. However, the Cubs strength in the past has been in developing pitchers so if they want to become a winning team for a few years not just one they just can't trade the farm for guys like Santana or Bedard, not to mention the amount of money for the extensions. Any good prospects that are traded, should be traded for position players, such as Roberts or someone else. Hopefully the next line of starting pitchers in the system will develop and replace guys like Marquis/Dempster/Lieber and the Cubs can build a foundation of winning.
So, to respond to your point, given what was available for the price that was available I think Hendry did the right thing for the long term healthiness of this franchise.
A-
This has been a great offseason for the Cubs. They have gotten pieces that really fit the team's needs while maintining most of their depth at other positions. If they can somehow get Roberts without giving up the farm it will be A+ in my book. The one thing that worries you about Hendry is that he went after Kaz Matsui, so you kind of wonder if this is still the same Hendry that operated in the Baker era. I guess he still probably is but his choices have been much better this time around.
I'm still keeping my fingers crossed on Roberts. He can take the Cubs offense to the next level, especially if the consider DeRosa at SS (last year not many would have thought Theriot could handle the position as he did, so it's not out of the question).
Btw, as a side note, Verducci at CNNSI is predicts the Cubs will make it to the series.
kudo to H for saying no to TTTSNBN
if that's how it ends up. Roberts isn't worth what the Orioles wanted. Period. We have enough depth to codge together what Roberts is supposed to bring. Remains to be seen if the confidence in Pie is worth what we could have gotten. Good move on Fukudome and Wood, and cagey move on Prior who will bounce back but to what degree is still the big X factor. Hendry could only do what he was forced to do there. Lieber adds depth to the pen and the guys sent to the farm and on the bench (Patterson, Ward, et al) are, I think, going to be big insurance. Holding on to Murton is smart too.
BTW, it creeped me out to see Luis and blackhawk post right on top of me while I typed this. Most unsettling ..
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
I'll reserve my grade...
...until I see how things pan out.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
One thing I think we do NOT have to worry about...
... is Fukudome. Each day, I see him getting more comfortable at the plate. Today, he had a single and two walks, raising his numbers to .231/.308/.406. Obviously, a .714 OPS is about 150-200 points lower than we'd like to see it, but he has now drawn 14 walks. That leads ALL major league players in spring training.
As he learns the strike zone and the pitchers here, some of those walks will turn into hits. I think he'll be just fine.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
That 406 is nice
now once he starts hitting!!!!!
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer
.406 SLG is nice?
No, .406 OBP is nice, very nice. .406 SLG ain't so hot.
What you (all of us really) want from Kosuke-san is to see an OBP of .110 or so higher than the BA with the BA at least in the high 200's.
406 is the on base %
The slugging in bad. Al put the numbers reversed
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer
I agree...
...Fukudome is the least of any worry I would have.
When it comes to judging a GM's offseason, it is similar to any draft, you can grade all you want now, but the only thing that matters is how the players perform on the field. As is, the Cubs have a good chance of winning the division and making a run. IMO, with one more deal, they would be in better shape.
My biggest concerns about the Cubs today:
1. Top of the order
2. Rich Hill
3. Ramirez and or Soriano going down
4. Pie
5. Back of rotation
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Im not really worried about Rich Hill
He didnt do so well last spring either, and he just had a good outing yesterday. Sign of better things to come...
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying" - Michael Jordan, the one and only...
I gave him a B
Due to the fact that I think we were targeting the wrong guy (B Roberts) and should have been targeting a SS. Other than that, with the price of pitching in both cost of free agent market (Silva, ect.) and in trade value (Bedard, Santana) we did a good job picking up a solid pitcher in Jon Lieber and it appears that Lahey is almost there
Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man
ok
what ss should we have targeted??? was one. tejada has a truck load of baggage around him and the astros gave up 50 fricking players to get him.
GO CUBS GO!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Mar 25, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Hendry made one mistake, IMO
When McPhail named the original price for TNO (supposedly Pie and 2 or 3 others), Hendry should have walked away immediately and not looked back. He held on to Murton, Cedeno, Marquis, etc. hoping that McPhail would change his mind and he could package them for TNO. When it became clear that McPhail wouldn't (or couldn't, if Angelos had a say) settle for anything less than a stud, he should have taken the hint. He then could have traded Murton when SD was interested and gotten decent value and not left a cloud hanging over the team for all of ST.
Mark Shapiro inquired about TNO as well. When McPhail named Asdrubal Cabrera as his price, Shapiro hung up the phone and moved on.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Prior
I don't think it's fair to second guess Hendry on this one, even if Prior does well this year, unless you think that $3.5 million for half a season was a good deal for a guy in his situation. He was not interested in playing in Chicago after this year.
Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson
I think it will be fair
if Prior pitches effectively in May. Hendry should have had the medical information to tell him that was possible. I don't think Prior's intention to walk next year is all that relevant given that the Cubs are more focused on winning this year than next year. Still, there's not much more to say on Prior until we see him pitching effectively in a game situation.
Roberts
Roberts was scratched yesterday due to back stiffness.
Would serve the Os right if he missed extended PT after they had a chance to get a good package for him.
We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.
Somebody said Matsui said no...
Its because he still has nightmares of an error in the bottom of the 9th at Wrigley.
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying" - Michael Jordan, the one and only...
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