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Murton vs. Johnson

Nate Silver compares the merits of a Fukudome/Murton center/right combination against lefties, versus a Johnson/Murton combo:

However, there is another option in the form of Matt Murton, who is around .12 runs per game better than Johnson against left-handed pitching — the equivalent of about 20 runs per 162 games — and fully .20 runs better than Pie. Can Murton play center? Probably not in a way that most teams are willing to tolerate. But Murton could play right field — and Kosuke Fukudome could play center, which by most accounts he was able to handle competently in Japan. It’s hard to imagine that a Johnson/Fukudome outfield is fully 20 runs per season better with the glove than Fukudome/Murton; it’s not like Reed Johnson is Gary Maddox out thee. And here, the clubhouse externalities work in the opposite direction, because by acquiring Johnson, you’ve made clear to Murton just how unimportant a part of the club’s future he is.

It’s not a bad acquisition in the abstract so much as an uncreative use of resources, which has become something of a hallmark for the Cubs.

The last line really rings true, doesn't it?

Between all four of the players in question - Pie, Fukudome, Johnson, and Murton - Murton has the superior bat against lefties, and there's no reason to think he won't continue to do so.  Working him into the lineup against southpaws would be a benefit to the Cubs in those games.  Unfortunately, Murton is a defensive liability.

Baseball Prospectus has Murton and Johnson as about average fielders at left field (based on FRAA), although baseball wisdom holds that Johnson is, while not a terribly good CF, at least capable of credibly playing the position.  Murton is not.

The question is, how good of a center fielder is Fukudome?  A center/right field of Fukudome/Murton would be worse than Johnson/Fukudome, but by how much?  I'm tempted to say that it would not be enough to offset the real gains that Murton's projected .310/.380/.488 line against lefties would bring, over Johnson's .278/.346/.416 projection.

Worth pointing out: Johnson's projection doesn't match his career performance against southpaws, who he's hit .308/.371/.462 against in his career.  Murton's career split against lefties is just a touch better than his PECOTA projection.

Either way, Johnson definitely has value as a backup for the Cubs, as he's the only bench OF who can credibly play all three slots, though I guess Cedeno's supposed to be able to play center.

So what do you all think?  Murton or Johnson?

 

Star-divide

 

Poll
Which center field/right field combination should the Cubs use against left-handed pitching this year?
Fukudome (CF) / Murton (RF)
76 votes
Johnson (CF) / Fukudome (RF)
83 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

2 recs  |  Comment 94 comments

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Comments

Display:

Fukudome

Signed with the Cubs to play RF, and I think the Cubs are honoring that. If he came out and said "I have no problems playing CF" like Soriano did last year, I think things would be different.

by berselius on Mar 26, 2008 12:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, he kinda did.

First off, Fukudome in CF is something the Cubs are considering -- he played there a few times this spring. Also, players and positions are more interchangeable than people tend to think. The difference between right field and left field is basically that left fielders don't have to throw as far to hold a runner at second. Hell, you could even stick Murton out there in center field, although he'd be worse there than most about any other outfielder (though that's going to be true no matter where you put him).

Secondly, well, he did indicate that he would be willing to play center just last week, although he obviously sees himself as better suited for RF, which while true, doesn't mean that having him play center -- essentially opening a corner spot for a better hitter, against lefties -- makes the team worse off.

'If they tell me to play center field, I'll play center field,'' Fukudome said through an interpreter. ''I played center field a full season in Japan. I have played more in right field, but I can play either position. It shouldn't be a problem.''

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Although he did choose the Cubs in part because of RF

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/20/sports/BBN-Cubs-Fukudome.php

"After I declared my free agency, the Cubs were actually one of the only teams that were trying to get me from the beginning to the end of the whole process," Fukudome said through a translator. "I felt they really wanted me and they were also one of the teams that promised me I could play my position — right field."
I still think that moving from right to center on a part-time basis isn't a big deal.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He also has a couple

very nice assists this spring. Pie in center and Fukudome in right is 2/3's of a great defensive outfield. Last season, on a throw to home, (with a running start) Pie was clocked over 100 mph.

by alec on Mar 26, 2008 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not fussed

Frankly, I don't care what happens to Murton. I used to be in the love-him brigade, but let's be real about it, he's a corner outfielder who's below average defensively and hits with little power. We could get away with that if we were getting power from other, less likely sources, say up the middle, but we aren't, and we might not get much from our other corner outfield spot either. So we might as well be defensively adequate and flexible with our 4th outfielder, considering we already have one butcher in left. (I don't care what Soriano's assist totals are, any time he has to run for a a ball I have a small brain bubble.) Fukudome might kill himself running between Soriano and Murton.

by SamFels on Mar 26, 2008 12:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Not fussed

Well, obviously, Murton is not one of the top corner outfielders in this game. His bat doesn't really belong out there full-time, over 162 games. But he hits lefties well, and the question is, how can the Cubs maximize production in their lineup. Murton is a better hitter against lefties over his career than Alfonso Soriano is, so if he can be worked into the lineup against lefties, I think the Cubs should do it.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Murton is sooo dreaaamy

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 12:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Poll...

doesn't take into account the magical possibility that Pie will be able to his LHP eventually.

Just sayin'

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 26, 2008 12:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Keep Fukudome

in RF at least for this season. No switchin' him around.

Stats spelled backwards is statS!

by digitalbenjamin on Mar 26, 2008 12:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Because he...

...doesn't really want to be switched around. Honor the commitment, I say. - TL

"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Mar 26, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Fukudome

was an option to play CF the Cubs would have never picked up Johnson.

Dome was 'promised' right field. Thats the main reason he came to the Cubs. It would be in the Cubs best intrest to stick to that 'promise' for future consideration trying to sign new players.

Of course if Fuku agrees to center, this all being said assuming Pie doesn't pan out, then Murton would be my choice for right.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 12:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well...

DeRo was "promised" 2B too. We saw how well Lou kept that promise.

I do think that it would be better for Dome to not shuffle positions while he is trying to adjust to ML pitching. He will have enough trouble trying to adjust to RF in Wrigley.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Mar 26, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Promises expire...

...after one season. No team can commit to anyone's desires beyond a current season. Your legit comeback: They broke that promise to DeRo last year. Yes. And the Cubs should've never done that. But, if you'll indulge a cliche: two wrongs don't make a right. - TL

"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Mar 26, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The key is...

... that Johnson can play all three OF slots. The Cubs had no one else who could do that -- Sam Fuld would have been the only other option, and he's not as good as Johnson.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 26, 2008 12:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Right, which is why he's a good pickup

But that doesn't mean he should start against lefties.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

there is more to comapre besides who hits lefty's better. Johnson can fill any outfield position and thats whats most important......I am trying really hard to sell myself on RJ.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If they don't forsee...

...getting his share of starts against lefties, I really don't think they would have bothered.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're probably right about what the Cubs think

But the question here is what is a better use of their resources, not what the Cubs plan to do.

A similar situation: many posters here think that Lieber should be in the starting rotation. He's not, because the Cubs have placed him in the bullpen instead. So, are all those people wrong to think that Lieber should be in the rotation, because the Cubs put him in the bullpen? Of course not.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you really think...

...Lou wanted to put Lieber in the pen? Stop for a moment, and think about what is going on. This is all short-term stuff (just like Soriano in the 2-hole), it won't last.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're missing the point

Which is, the fact that the Cubs are planning to use their players one way does not mean that there is not a better way to use them.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a long season...

...and sometime you have to make short-term decisions that are different than your long-term plans.

There is no question, that Hendry's inability to move Marquis and to acquire Roberts, are forcing some of these short-term decisions.

I will make a prediction:

Lieber will be in the rotation by May 1st (maybe sooner) and Soriano will start the majority of his games not hitting in the 1 or 2 hole.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll second those predictions

n/t

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Mar 26, 2008 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Once again

The point -- which at this point I'm forced to assume that you're deliberately ignoring -- is that just because the Cubs choose to do things one way does not mean that they are doing it the best way, or in the way that maximizes the number of games that they win.

FWIW, I would put money on Lieber starting by June if I were a betting man, but that's really not relevant to the issue of outfield platoons.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

What does FWIW stand for? Can you add it to the BCB Dictionary post that just went up? Thanks!

Stats spelled backwards is statS!

by digitalbenjamin on Mar 26, 2008 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

FWIW = For What It's Worth

LOL = Laugh Out Loud ;)

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

...I guess that is a matter of opinion. I happen to agree with Piniella and Hendry choosing Johnson over Murton. If you don't, that is fine as well.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If your opinion is that the Cubs never make mistakes with their personnel

Then I suppose you're entitled to it, but the body of evidence contradicts that.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't believe I said that...

...but you can perceive what you wish. I simply said I agree with their decision on Johnson and Murton.

In fact, the Cubs have made plenty of mistakes with personal, but most of those took place because of Hendry either putting the wrong pieces together, or holding onto players for too long. Since Piniella has been around, evaluating what their players are capable of has taken quantum leaps forward.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here is what you posted earlier today:

If they don't forsee...
...getting his share of starts against lefties, I really don't think they would have bothered.
Since the question was which of the two sets of players would work better starting against LHP for the Cubs, I was assuming that you were using this in support of your (implied) position, which doesn't make sense, because the point of this thread is to discuss the merits of the decision.

And while I certainly like the Piniella era (so far) better than the Baker era, let's not forget that this is the same Lou Piniella who thinks Ryan Theriot helps the club most by batting at the top of the order.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You lost me...

...my comment simply states if they didn't think Johnson was good enouph to get starts against lefties, they would have bothered making the deal.

I will say again; IMO, they like Johnson because he can play all the OF positions, is a better runner than Murton and Johnson is a better fielder than Murton. They clearly feel that these things were important enough to offset any offensive statistical advantage Murton has over Johnson, and I agree with that. Lou has said over and over again - he wants to get more "athletic" and that is what they did.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again it's not Johnson vs Murton

on paper. Baseball is a team game, and guys have roles. One example of that is the Cubs first six games of the season. I believe we are on schedule to face all RH pitchers. So that means Reed Johnson will most likely be pinch hitting or maybe get a spot start against a RH pitcher. The samething happen to us last season, and Murton really struggled with that. For a young hitter like Murton he needs AB's and to be playing everyday or at least every other day. So on a team that plans on contending Reed Johnson is a much better piece to have. Plus the fact that Murton can't play CF and Johnson can, and Fukudome doesn't want to play CF.(we promised him RF)

So honestly we were ALWAYS going to get a back up CF who hits RH, Hendry has been looking for this player since November. We were very lucky to get Reed Johnson we could have gotten a much worse player like Jay Payton or Marlon Byrd. Murton future with this team ended when we signed Soriano and he wasn't able to play CF, and after they realized he's not a everyday RF then signed Fukudome.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That darn CEDENO!!

I'm a strong believer that if CEDENO!!! wasnt out of options it'd be 19 on our bench, not CEDENO!!

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which is meaningless

because Murton getting 5-8 AB's a week pinch hitting is pretty worthless. Unless Murton is either playing everyday, or playing in a platoon were he starts at least 3-4 days a week, he's not a good fit for our team. So with us hoping that a OF of Soriano, Pie and Fukudome is our OF for the next 4-7 years, Murton has no spot on this team at all. Thats why it's silly to even compare Murton to Johnson. Having a veteran like Johnson around who knows his role is alot better for our team. Plus the fact that we promised Fukudome RF before we signed him, and shouldn't go back on our word already. Especially when it's going to be tough enough to adjust to ML pitching as is.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

SO I

should be cursing Fukudome, not CEDENO!!

Oh well.

Al and everyone I promise I'll knock of the Murton stuff Monday March 31st.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you!

Or whenever he's traded, whichever comes first.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 27, 2008 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

whichever comes firts.
I've always supported the guy so I dont see why I should stop. but come opening day or a trade I'll give all BCB users a major break from my rants.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 27, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was never Cedeno vs Murton...

Cedeno's lack of options has/had no effect on Murton's roster spot. Cedeno is competing with Alex Cintron, not Murton. Cedeno will either make the roster (sending Cintron to the minors) or be traded (putting Cintron on the roster). Neither scenario has any effect on Murton.

Murton's fate was basically sealed the day they signed Fukudome. At that point, he had no utility to the team. They had two regulars in Soriano and Fukudome in LF and RF, and they had two capable backup corner OF in DeRosa and Ward. If they'd been able to get Roberts, that'd have even further sealed the deal.

by SouthernCub on Mar 27, 2008 7:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No...

... Murton's fate wasn't sealed until they got Reed Johnson. Until then, I think Lou was toying with the idea (tried a couple times here in ST) of playing Murton in RF and Fukudome in CF when Pie sits.

Obviously, that wasn't an ideal situation; that's why they grabbed Johnson when he became available.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 27, 2008 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When will people...

...understand that Murton has very limited versatility and that is why they got Johnson?

This decision goes well beyond OPS, its about what each guy can do on the bases and on the field.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 12:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Once again

I think Johnson was a good pickup, but the question here is which player is more valuable in the lineup against left-handed hitters. I think that at this point, Murton's only utility to this club is this precise situation. So, yes, Johnson's versatility is an important asset, but that doesn't mean that he's automatically more valuable than Murton in every situation.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

...considering you have to play the field and run the bases in the NL, I'll venture a guess that both Piniella and Hendry would rather have Johnson out there vs Murton.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's the question, isn't it?

What's worth more, Johnson's defense in CF over Murton's in RF, or Murton's bat over Johnson's bat against LHP?

Johnson isn't known as a good baserunner (he's stolen only 28 bases out in 44 attempts during his career, for example), so I'm not sure what you're getting at there.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just because...

... Johnson has 28/44 in SB attempts, doesn't mean he isn't a good baserunner.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 26, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No it doesn't

But who said he was one?

Dan Fox has him as having contributed something like four runs to his teams during the period between 2003 (when he was a rookie) and 2005. That makes him above-average, but it's really not a big contribution.

By the way, I love this new setup. Much easier to follow the comments as they happen, instead of constantly reloading the page. =)

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're pretty close to each other...

...in my baserunning +/- stats. (They're similar to what Fox did, just less detailed.)

The difference between them is most likely age - Murton's younger, and baserunning is a young man's game. I'd give Murton a slight edge over Johnson, but nothing that's going to make a huge difference in less than a full season's playing time.

by cwyers on Mar 26, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have seen...

...Murton run the bases enouph to venture a guess Johnson is a better baserunner. Also, there is a lot more to baserunning than stealing bases.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha

True enough.

The question is how much value do the Cubs lose by playing Murton over Johnson on the bases? At the end of the day, probably not much.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll just say this...

...there is a reason Murton is the odd man out here and it is the same reason Hendry has not been able to move him.

I know a lot of people love the guy, but I agree with Piniella and Hendry's decision here.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We can't play

Murton over Johnson, unless we have a injury to Fukudome or Soriano. Because Fukudome isn't going to play CF every week over a fullseason and Murton can't play CF. BP and others only look at offense and don't take into account what is realistic. The Cubs could get much more production at SS if Murton could play there over Theriot to.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Entirely arbitrary

Simply saying that Fukudome won't play center, because he won't play center, is basically meaningless. The whole point of the original post here was whether it would be to the Cubs' benefit to play him there, not whether it was going to happen.

Folks, I realize it's not going to happen, but that doesn't mean that it's not worth discussing. =)

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who's playing

CF when Murton is playing RF? Because it wasn't going to be Fukudome, and thats why this convo needs to end.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Murton is a RH version

of Ben Grieve. Both are/were valued far more by stats people than people in baseball. Ask yourself why there has been so little interest by other teams in Murton. He's a very limited ballplayer.

by cubswin on Mar 26, 2008 12:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

There has been limited interest

because there are few LF spots available - if any. If Murton was available for free, several teams would be interested. Having to trade for him is a different story.

by DGU on Mar 26, 2008 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know he's limited

But it's strange to say, flat-out, that because his value is limited that he shouldn't be used in those limited situations where he is valuable. Like against LHP.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apart from the obvious

Reed is more versatile in the outfield and has better speed, things that are important if you're coming from the bench, Murton has been very bad as a pinch hitter in limited duty and also very bad with runners on in a significant number of at bats, again, important things if you're a bench player. Add it all up and Johnson makes more sense for the Cubs.

by Luis on Mar 26, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're not talking about coming off of the bench

We're talking about a platoon -- a part-time starting gig.

You know, it is possible for the Cubs to carry both Murton and Johnson on the roster.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Silver and others

don't add into account a guy not wanting to play a postion or not. Of course if Fukudome was willing to play CF over the a fullseaso, the Cubs wouldn't have signed Johnson or been looking for a back up CF all offseason.

Fukudome in the media isn't going to say I don't wanna play CF. I'm sure Lou told him that were just gonna get you some work out there, just incase. But were gonna try to get a back up CF before the season starts. So Fukudome was ok with the move then.

Thats why the Murton vs Johnson stuff is really really stupid. Because it's not between those guys, because Murton can't play CF and Fukudome didn't wanna play CF long term. If we weren't lucky enough to get Reed Johnson we would have been stuck with someone like Marlon Byrd or Jay Payton.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 12:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Fukudome is getting paid $12mm/year to play baseball

It shouldn't be too much to ask that he play CF from time-to-time, if he's capable of playing the position.

A legitimate question would be, how much worse defensively would Fukudome perform in center than in right? Or, would it affect his offensive production to a point where it would hurt the team? The answer is that we don't really know until the Cubs try it out.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

IF a guy takes less

money to sign with you because he one of the reasons is he wants to play RF. It's pretty shady to just put him in CF a few times a week anyways. I'm sure Lou will put Fukudome in CF here or there if he really has to. But he's not going to put Fukudome in CF a few times a week vs LH pitching, and start Murton in RF.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 26, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I voted Fukudome in RF for one simple reason

The guy is already trying to get used to playing in a new country. I think I would rather just have him concentrate on getting acclimated to a new league and a new country. We can work on different positions next year.

---formerly known on BCB, WCG, and BAB simply as mike.
AC 00 00 00 - Believe

by mjk83 on Mar 26, 2008 1:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

it's really this simple

it's not worth risking fukudome's production bouncing him all around the outfield. fukudome's production is likely to suffer if he has to be dealing with learning a new position on the fly. i know that hurts the mega-brains of the baseball prospectus crowd because it's not easily quantifiable with numbers, but that doesn't make it any less true.

and didn't we already try this experiment last year with soriano in CF? didn't that turn out horribly? why would we do it again to another free agent signing?

by billywan on Mar 26, 2008 2:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Different situations

Soriano had been an infielder his entire professional career up until 2006, when he started playing left field, which is one of the easiest defensive positions in the game. In 2007, the Cubs tried to convert him to center, a position he had never played before, and it didn't take.

Fukudome is a career outfielder who has played CF professionally. Also keep in mind that we're not talking a permanent position change, but what would equate to maybe 25% of playing time.

Now, there's something to be said for the position a player is playing affecting his play at the plate. One of the more famous examples is Frank Thomas, who for whatever reason, put up better number as a first baseman than as a DH during his heyday. There is nothing to suggest, however, that this is something that should be expected when a player plays different positions.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

but

the burden of proof is not on my position. we should assume that messing with fukudome would hurt him, given his obvious and stated preference for playing RF.

sure, it's possible he would do fine in CF. but i'm not willing to risk it to find out.

by billywan on Mar 26, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cant we

just ask Marty McFly to look up the Cubs 2008 results in the sports alminac so we can all calm down?

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 2:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's the deal

When I need to turn to Nate Silver in order to formulate my opinions on why something is done by the Cubs, that's the day you can turn off my TV. Simple as that.

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. -- Lee Constantine Elia, 1983.

by krummy12 on Mar 26, 2008 2:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think a lot of good points...

...have been made here on both sides of the debate. Personally, from a practical perspective, I loved the idea of using the "Dome shift" against really tough lefties.

But, as others have pointed out, Kosuke was promised right field and, let's face it, the guy's got a lot to learn and adjust to in his first season in the Majors. I think this may be a good example of a situation in which "the human factor" may trump the numbers involved.

I feel bad for Murton. I really do. But the limitations in his game really seem to be his undoing.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 26, 2008 3:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I also wouldn't discount

Johnsons signing as a backup for Fukudome, just in case. As you and others have pointed out he's not only with a new team but in a new country. It's been suggested before that Japaneses players don't always perform well their first year in the majors, and Cub free agent signings don't always perform well their first year in Wrigley. Honestly I don't know if all that's true but I bet Jim Hendry does, he's seen the data.

Do we really know how well Dome is going to do against tough left handers? Wouldn't it be just possible that they signed Johnson to play center just in case Dome doesn't want to shift and/or he struggles in his first year and they want to sit him as well against some tough lefties?

I didn't read the Nate Silver article (yet) and I didn't see it anywhere else in this thread so I will point out that based on the quote you posted Silver is saying that Murton would be 20 runs better against lefties over 162 games than Johnson, but we aren't going to see anywhere near 162 lefties this year. I'd be surprised if lefties accounted for more than 25% or so of MLB starters. So maybe Murton is worth 5 runs more over the course of a season than Johnson, not counting defense and the affect it would have on our new right fielder.

Murton still has a place on the team but I'm happy with Johnson as well. If he fills his role as well as he can we'll be a better team because of it.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Mar 26, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a valid point

At the end of the day, a lot of these kinds of discussions -- including discussions about batting orders -- shake out to making only a small difference over the course of a season.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bad news for Matty Murton

Murton, a .296 hitter in the Majors, has batted .344 in 22 games this spring, but can only play the corners. Johnson can play all three outfield positions. Where does Murton fit?

"I don't know," Piniella said. "Matt's had a good spring. We like him. We needed a little versatility in the outfield and that was the idea behind the Reed Johnson move.

"If Matt's not here with us, I hope we can find a Major League job for him, because he's a good player, and he deserves that," Piniella said. "I'm sure that, if he's not going to be here, that Jim will try to accomodate him as much as possible."

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 6:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Murton has been available

the whole offseason and no team seemed interested in offering anything of value for him. Why, because is just isn't that good of a baseball player. Billy Beane could have had him but chose Emil Brown instead. What does that say about his value?

by cubswin on Mar 26, 2008 6:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure about that

It seemed as though a couple of teams (at least SD and Tex) inquired about him, but Hendry didn't want to trade him in Dec. or Jan. because he thought that he could lump Murton and a few other medicore players for TNO. By the time Hendry figured out that McPhail wouldn't settle for anything less than a type-A prospect, the other teams had moved on and the market had dried up.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Mar 26, 2008 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dont know what

his value is becuase I havent seen him play a full season.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 6:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Its like

working for a company 3 years. An opening is available and the company keeps bringing in a new guy from another company to fill the position. Oh well. I'm not going to worry about it anymore. I just want to see him play a full year on a major league team. THEN if he doesnt produce I'll lay it to rest.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 7:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd like to see him

bulk up, become a power hitter and play 1st base.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 7:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Steroids ftw!

Just like that Arod guy?

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Bulk"

isn't his problem. Murton is plenty strong enough, and he hits the ball plenty hard enough. It's just that he has a downward-plane swing -- which is condusive to hitting line drives for a high average and many 2Bs, but doesn't lift the ball out of the park. If Murton tried to change his swing that drastically, he would probably screw himself up.

FWIW, DeRo's swing is very similar, and he has a similar high line-drive / low HR ratio. The difference is that DeRo is a MI, so a lack of HR power is more acceptable.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Mar 26, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

swing

i seem to recall reading an article about ryne sandberg once that involved him changing his swing. something about jim frey telling him that if he changed out his line drive swing for one with a bit more uppercut he'd greatly improve his game.

worked out pretty well for him...

by billywan on Mar 26, 2008 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Murton does not have...

...a homerun swing, and it's not a good idea to try and force the issue. To me, he is a right handed version of Todd Walker.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

he has to do something or he'll be a bench player the rest of his career it seems. Unless a low salary team like TB or KC can start him for a full season to get a true eval of his talent. I know his number arent stellar but what do you expect coming off the bench in the 7th inning 50 times a year.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is what he is...

...and that is the biggest reason no one has offered Hendry a deal compelling enouph to take him of their hands.

Regarding homeruns, how often do you see Murton pull the ball with authority in the air? Murton has an inside/out swing, and those usually give you choppers to the left side and fly balls to the opposite field. He has nice power to the gap in right center, but his swing is well established and he won't all of a sudden be a guy who is considered a homerun hitter.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is true

A right-handed corner outfielder with a career OPS+ of 108 (i.e. slightly above the major league average), and what amounts to replacement-level defense at the ballfield's weakest defensive position, just isn't going to be that valuable.

He should go back to catching or something.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you on that!

I say try 1st or behind the plate or something that can give his 'average' nametag some value.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just saying

dont you think its hard to predict a players potential when he hasnt even played an entire season? Or even 30-40 straight games for that matter? I'm just curious to how he'd fair playing a full or half season, consistantly, at the same position. Most of his playing time to my knowledge is off the bench.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you can project Murton...

...for a couple of reasons; his swing is not made for homers, and that my friends, is hard to change at this point. Also, his power numbers (were very good his first year) have dropped, and that is because pitchers found his achilles heel - hard stuff inside.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 26, 2008 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Murton was good enough

He would have played an entire season or 30-40 straight games. If he never shows anything playing part time or off the bench he won't likely become a starter anywhere.

by LT on Mar 26, 2008 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

he's good enough. I just think better players keep ganking his spot ...moving Soriano over to LF...signing Dome. Thats cool though. I have a feeling he'll get his shot at a starting spot sometime this year. Who with? No idea.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

More like McGuire

He reminds me of a young Mark McGuire. I dont know if Murton has it in himself to try that but it seems like an option. Might be too late in his career to do that even though he's young.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 7:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not really

Murton has 28 HR through his age-25 season. McGwire had 117, outdoing Murton's present career total in each of his three full seasons.

So, uh, yeah, not really comparable.

by gjdow on Mar 26, 2008 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I better

rephrase my comment. I didnt mean to compare them. I meant looks and size he reminds me of a young McGuire. Not numbers wise.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

couldnt we all!

Have you ever heard Murton? That kid is Christian and as clean as they come. I dont think he'd swat a misquito if it bit him in the eye.

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I guess Matt's only option

is to sign him self to a 1.3 million $$ contract like Reed Johnson did.

"Murton agrees to one-year, $1.3M deal with Murton."

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/3/26/332767/johnson-signs-with-himself

Poor Matty Murton....

by Keystone80435 on Mar 26, 2008 8:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

If you read the SI baseball preview that just came out, they think the Tampa Bay (RAYs...what happened to the Devil in front?) should acquire Matt Murton from the Cubs because...

apparently the Cubs lack young pitching (I think the phrase used was "bereft of young pitching prospects" whereas the Rays are also apparently "overflowing" (w/young pitching prospects).

by cubby23 on Mar 26, 2008 10:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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