2008 Major League Baseball Predictions
When the San Francisco Giants played at Candlestick Park, if you stayed till the end of an extra-inning night game, they'd give you a button with a "SF" logo with icicles on it and the words: "Veni. Vidi. Vixi" -- which, very loosely translated from Latin, means: "I came. I saw. I survived."
Vixi. I survived. WE survived the winter, the worst in recent Chicago and midwest history. We have arrived at the beginning of another baseball season, filled with excitement and hope, and this time, the REAL hope, I think, that our favorite team will make it back to the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in...
I don't have to tell you that. You already know. In connection with that anniversary, Bruce Miles has a nice article in the Daily Herald today on that topic, in which I am quoted at length.
Meanwhile, tonight, the Braves face the Nationals in the inaugural regular season game in Nationals Park, televised on ESPN at 7 pm CT. Sun-Times political reporter Lynn Sweet went to last night's Orioles/Nats exhibition game and says the new park is, well, pretty "sweet".
And, today I will join all the thousands of other bloggers, websites, pundits, etc. in making my so-called "expert" predictions for the upcoming season. If you have been here for the last three years, you'll find this prediction format familiar -- and yes, you'll find most of this text familiar too (copy/paste being a useful tool). For those of you new to BCB, read on.
I started this format about fifteen years ago, when I was passing out my annual predictions to any of my friends who were willing to read them either with or without scoffing, because I found it both more interesting and challenging to do than traditional predictions. Even more so, if you're here I don't need to insult your intelligence by telling you who the ballclubs' best hitters, pitchers, etc. are. You already know. Instead, you'll find a pithy word or phrase describing the hitting, pitching, defense and intangibles of the thirty contenders for October glory.
I'm also not going to "predict" award winners. How hard would it be for me to sit here clacking away on a keyboard and be master-of-the-obvious by telling you that Alex Rodriguez is the best player in the AL and that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in the NL? Could Kosuke Fukudome or Geovany Soto be NL Rookie of the Year? Sure, but it could also be someone who isn't even starting the year in the major leagues, like Ryan Braun a year ago. Further, awards and league leaders often come out of nowhere. One year ago today, who'd have predicted that Jimmy Rollins would have been named NL MVP? Or that Joe Borowski would lead the AL with 45 saves? Nobody, that's who.
And in any case, anyone using the search function here can come back here in October and tell me how wrong I was.
With that, here goes:
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
1) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Hitting: Healthy
Pitching: Suddenly solid
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: Determined to make up for last year
2) NEW YORK METS
Hitting: Excellent
Pitching: Johan and then who?
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: The pressure's on
3) ATLANTA BRAVES
Hitting: Fair
Pitching: Blast from the past
Defense: Improving
Intangibles: Bobby Cox wishes he had retired
4) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Hitting: Solid
Pitching: If you can get to Cordero...
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: Spiffy new stadium
5) FLORIDA MARLINS
Hitting: Who ARE these guys?
Pitching: Who ARE these guys?
Defense: Outstanding
Intangibles: Lots of great seats available! C'mon down!
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1) CHICAGO CUBS
Hitting: At last, balanced
Pitching: Um, well, we hope it's improved
Defense: Don't run on this OF
Intangibles: The pressure of being favorites
2) MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Wild Card)
Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun!
Pitching: Pray for everyone's health
Defense: Their Achilles heel
Intangibles: Heightened expectations
3 CINCINNATI REDS
Hitting: No base-clogging allowed
Pitching: Pitching? Who needs pitching?
Defense: Improved
Intangibles: Not-so-spiffy new manager
4) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Hitting: Um, nope.
Pitching: Maturing
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: I still hate those red jerseys
5) HOUSTON ASTROS
Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun!
Pitching: Lots of home runs! F -- oh, wait.
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: Few and far between
6) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Hitting: Injured
Pitching: Pitching? Who needs pitching?
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Tony LaRussa wishes he had retired
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
1) LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Hitting: New
Pitching: Excellent
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: Spiffy new manager
2) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Hitting: Send help!
Pitching: Solid
Defense: Improved
Intangibles: Four ex-Cubs. Asking for trouble.
3) COLORADO ROCKIES
Hitting: Yes. But it's Colorado.
Pitching: Kip Wells? Seriously?
Defense: Tu-LO!
Intangibles: 21-1? You can't repeat that.
4) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Hitting: Inconsistent
Pitching: In turmoil
Defense: Good enough
Intangibles: 2007: 712 R. 732 OR. Nuff said.
5) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Hitting: Horrendous
Pitching: Pretty good
Defense: Creaky
Intangibles: Worst team in the NL
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
1) BOSTON RED SOX
Hitting: Returning
Pitching: Returning
Defense: Better than you might think
Intangibles: The pressure of trying to repeat
2) NEW YORK YANKEES
Hitting: Solid, as usual
Pitching: Young. Well, mostly.
Defense: Whoops!
Intangibles: Sit home this October. Watch Steinbrenner heads explode!
3)TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Hitting: Healthy
Pitching: Healthy
Defense: Improved
Intangibles: Going to petition to be in AL West
4) TAMPA BAY RAYS
Hitting: New
Pitching: Good starters. Bullpen, not so much.
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: Free parking! (But only if you bring three friends)
5) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Hitting: Old
Pitching: Brought Trachsel back. Why?
Defense: Does it really matter?
Intangibles: Slowest... GM... in... the... majors...
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
1) DETROIT TIGERS
Hitting: Loaded
Pitching: Loaded
Defense: IF: Good. OF: Not so much.
Intangibles: Something to prove
2) CLEVELAND INDIANS (Wild Card)
Hitting: Balanced
Pitching: Sabathia and pray
Defense: Adequate
Intangibles: Might win as many as the Tigers
3) MINNESOTA TWINS
Hitting: New!
Pitching: Newer!
Defense: Newest!
Intangibles: Excellent manager who knows how to win
4) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Hitting: Unbalanced
Pitching: Pitching? Who needs pitching?
Defense: Defense? Who needs defense?
Intangibles: Watch Ozzie's head explode! First manager fired! Fun!
5) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Hitting: Improved
Pitching: Not improved
Defense: Better than you think
Intangibles: Might challenge White Sox for 4th
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
1) SEATTLE MARINERS
Hitting: Key to success: Richie Sexson
Pitching: Excellent
Defense: Just fair (except Ichiro, who is outstanding)
Intangibles: Suddenly the favorites. Can they handle it?
2) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Hitting: A bit long in the tooth, but still solid
Pitching: Injured. This really hurts.
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: Will struggle without their injured pitchers
3) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Hitting: Rebuilding
Pitching: Billy Beane always finds 'em
Defense: Mediocre
Intangibles: None that I can think of
4) TEXAS RANGERS
Hitting: Josh Hamilton. And then?
Pitching: Ugh
Defense: Fair
Intangibles: Can't finish lower than fourth
NL: Cubs over Dodgers, Brewers over Phillies; Cubs over Brewers in NLCS
AL: Red Sox over Indians, Tigers over Mariners; Tigers over Red Sox in ALCS
World Series: Cubs over Tigers. Because why would I pick the Cubs to make the postseason and NOT win it all... and, well -- it's time.
0 recs |
91 comments
Comments
Don't see the Brewers making the playoffs.
With their offense, they will win their share of 10-8 or 9-7 games, and I'm sure they will finish at or near .500. But over 162 games with their pitching, I'm not sure they can run with the big dogs. I'm surprised you had Arizona as far down as you do. They have improved from last year, I think, by adding Heron to an already solid rotation. I would give them at least a shot at the Wild Card if they don't win the division, but I think more likely it comes out of the NL East, between the Mets and Phillies.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
by ctcoff99 on Mar 30, 2008 12:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Teams...
... that have significant W-L deviations from their projections based on runs scored, tend to regress the following year. Based on their 2007 run differential, the Dbacks should have gone 79-83 last year. They went 90-72, +11. I think they'll struggle to get to .500.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet
you don't hold Seattle to that standard, who should have gone 79-83 and went 88-74 for a +9. Why won't they regress?
Is that just your greater familiarity with the National League?
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on Mar 30, 2008 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it was just one game....
but Seattle definitely showed in Vegas that they can flat-out hit. Obviously Lilly was way off, but still. Adding Erik Bedard is key to that team. Man, if the Cubs could have snagged him, as much as we needed Fukudome, we'd be the overwhelming favorite to win it all, I think. But, we've gotta go with what we've got at this point, and I like what we've got.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
by ctcoff99 on Mar 30, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
Seattle's a better team than Arizona. Period.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
Seattle way overplayed their expectations last year too. The difference is that Arizona has a ton of young players with talent and upside, whereas Seattle has a ton of vets that are far more likely to decline. Don't forget that the Snakes picked up Haren too, which should help further
by berselius on Mar 30, 2008 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think so
I bet the Snakes finish with a better record than Seattle. The Snakes overachieved with a young team that should get better. Seattle overachieved with an old team that should get worse.
But, the fun part is that we don't have long to wait to find out which one of us is right!
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on Mar 30, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Generally true
But there's evidence that teams built like last year's Diamondbacks tend to always better their pythag projection. Chris Jaffe has an article about it, but the basic premise is that the Snakes' mop-up relievers are terrible, so they tend to give up a lot of runs in games that they were already probably going to lose, thus inflating their RA, and deflating their projected win percentage.
by gjdow on Mar 30, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brewers ...
They look solid again, except for that bullpen. Gagne out of the closer's spot by Memorial Day.
And the Reds, even with Dusty, still look dangerous to me. Maybe it's just cause Arroyo has given us trouble in the past.
Vote for experience -- Woody for closer 2008!
by mlf on Mar 30, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont forget
something like 3 starting pitchers on the DL to start the season, maybe one out ofr the season and Ben Sheets history of aiments.
And you might be right about the Reds. Anyone playing 80+ games in that park have a shot at decent results in the win column.
Poor Matty Murton....
by Keystone80435 on Mar 30, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ofr = for and aiments = ailments in Keystonese.
Poor Matty Murton....
by Keystone80435 on Mar 30, 2008 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Cubs vs Detroit
And my biggest curiosity is how the Cubs handle being the favorite. Will they carry that badge with confidence and go into every situation expecting to win? Or will the pressure end up causing a self destruction.
Poor Matty Murton....
by Keystone80435 on Mar 30, 2008 12:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
on pressure
my biggest curiosity is how the Cubs handle being the favorite
Yes, we've been here before. This, I am hoping, is where the difference between Dusty and Lou really pays off.
by hoosiercubbie on Mar 30, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm watching
"Republica Deportiva" right now on Univision and they're all having a good laugh trying to pronounce Fukudome's name. It's really quite entertaining.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
you underrate the Braves and the D-Backs. I like both of those teams to make the playoffs.
Seattle isn't very good, but the Angels can't afford any more injuries. If the Angels can avoid losing anyone else, they'll take it still. But if they don't, I actually think the rebuilding Athletics might win the division with 83 wins. But Seattle could squeak out 84 or 85 and make your prediction come true.
You are right about one thing--this is the year the Yankees, despite a good team and a good season--miss the playoffs. The only question for you is now "Which Steinbrenner's head explodes?" Because there are three of them running around now. (Assuming George is still running around.)
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on Mar 30, 2008 12:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
RE: Assuming George is still running around
They way I heard it last, his body is still around, but his mind has left the building.
"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen
by BlueSox on Mar 30, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Al-past record...
Al, just out of curiousity, what were your World Series Champion predictions since you started this site?
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
by ronsanto10 on Mar 30, 2008 12:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Search the site...
... I'm pretty sure I didn't do very well. IIRC there was one year, either 05 or 06, when I did.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Projections
AL East:
BOS: 98-64
NYY: 85-77
TBA: 81-81
TOR: 80-82
BAL: 60-102
AL Central:
CLE: 95-67
DET: 89-73
CHW; 77-85
MIN: 76-86
KCA: 75-87
AL West;
ANA: 87-75
SEA: 80-82
OAK: 77-85
TEX: 77-85
NL East
NYM: 95-67
ATL: 84-78
PHI: 81-81
WAS: 73-89
FLA: 72-90
NL Central
CHC: 91-71
MIL: 85-77
CIN: 80-82
PIT: 75-89
STL: 74-88
HOU: 69-93
NL West:
ARI: 94-68
LAD: 88-74
SDP: 86-76
COL: 81-81
SFG: 59-103
NL:
Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Snakes in 4
Cubs over Dodgers in 6
AL:
BoSox over Tigers in 4
Indians over Angels in 3
BoSox over Indians in 6
WS:
Red Sox over Cubs in 5
And my for real picks
NL:
Dodgers over Mets in 5
Snakes over Cubs in 4
Dodgers over Snakes in 7
AL:
BoSox over Tigers in 4
Indians over Angels in 3
BoSox over Indians in 6
WS:
Red Sox over Dodgers in 5
Whoever wins the NL is going to get steamrolled by one of those AL powerhouses.
by berselius on Mar 30, 2008 12:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just like those 2006 Cardinals, right?
;-)
by gjdow on Mar 30, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To paraphrase Billy Beane...
The playoffs are a crapshoot anyway. (can't remember the exact quote...)
by berselius on Mar 30, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.....
Red Sox look like repeaters. I disagree that there is pressure to repeat. They already beat the Babe Ruth curse in 2004, and 2007 was icing on the cake. Everyone except Schilling is healthy and the surprise could be the comeback of Colon. Manny could have a huge year in the last year of his contract. The Cubs, on the other hand are under incredible pressure:
1) The 100-year-old drought
2) Pressure on Fukudome to produce
3) Movie crew following them around all year
4) D-Lee bad ST
5) Potential sale of the team
Etc....
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
by ronsanto10 on Mar 30, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, you believe in curses,
but not that there's more pressure on a defending champion than a contender. That's a truly baffling metaphysics.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A defending champion...
has already won.. What have they got to lose?
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
by ronsanto10 on Mar 30, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, for one thing,
THE TITLE! Thus, they are "defending" the championship. They're supposed to win, they're the best, therefore, etc. There's tons more pressure exerted by these sort of expectations than any "curse."
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did I mention "curse"...
in any of my bullet points above?
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
by ronsanto10 on Mar 30, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, actually.
[The Red Sox] already beat the Babe Ruth curse in 2004,
and
1) The 100-year-old drought
Now, perhaps the last one is a bit of inference on my part, but the first is inarguable. Nevertheless, droughts don't exert pressure, either. None of the players care, and probably o few of them don't even know or grasp it fully. It's a fan's problem, not a player's.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
Varsho got ya
Poor Matty Murton....
by Keystone80435 on Mar 30, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No,
I did not not mention "curse" in any of the bullet points. Please re-read.
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
by ronsanto10 on Mar 30, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought I might add my blurbs to the predictions
(these were originally posted to my blog, which I basically only update with posts like these)
NL East:
This prediction would appear that I am all over the Mets' bandwagon...but I assure you that I am not. Santana is fantastic, but I say meh to everyone else in their rotation. Their win total is more a reflection of how overrated I think their main 'competition' is. I see Philly as a .500 team, great offense notwithstanding. As bad as their pitching was last season, several of their guys were pitching above their ability. Moving Myers back into the rotation was the right move, but I don't think it will make up for some regression on Hamels (good, but not great), yet more attrition on Jaime Moyer, the revelation that Kyle Kendrick is a league average pitcher at best, and whoever occupies the rotating door at the 5th starter position. Offense can only get you so far, and this team matches up especially poorly with the Mets, who also have a great offense but better pitching. While the Phillies are overrated, everyone continues to underrate the Braves. They do have the pitching to go with a decent (not great offense) and that's a better formula for getting some wins. Washington should be a little better this year...though I'm probably just biased since I'm a HUGE Manny Acta fan. No one else gets more production from so little talent. Their outfield situation should be interesting this year, but their pitching isn't going to get them anywhere. As for Florida, I hope Loria enjoys all the cash he's pocketing from the team and his new sweetheart staduim deal. Here's hoping they call it 'Taxpayers' Stadium' (with a nod to Dennis Kucinich).
NL Central:
The fact that the Cubs' record isn't much better, given so many crappy teams in the division (see the Mets, above) is that the Cubs are still a pretty flawed team. Their biggest asset is their bullpen - aside from that I see them as having a merely above-average offense and rotation (good but not especially great). Defense should be pretty good - we have 4 plus defenders on the field at any moment (maybe 5 if Soto is as good defensively as people are projecting). I am still a little worried about our D up the middle though. The club's biggest needs are upgrades at SS and at starting pitcher, but we're really only throwing out 3 replacement level players in our entire effective starting lineup (Theriot, Marquis, Dempster), which is more than anyone else in the division can say.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has a great offense, combined with a very shaky rotation and a bullpen that probably isn't much better than last year's. The lack of depth in the starting rotation will make it seem like deja vu all over again for their overworked bullpen, and Gagne is definitely a downgrade from Cordero (and I don't think he will do as well as most seem to think). Actually, the best thing they did was sign Mike Cameron, which radically realigned their defense. Braun goes from a butcher at 3B to merely a crummy (at worst) defensive left fielder, which should be worth a win or two.
Cincy is a team with a ton of upside, but Dusty Baker + Young upside = bad combination. The fortunes of this team depend on how many ABs Bruce and Votto get. Even if they all get in there and Cueto/Volquez have good seasons, I don't think this is their year. But man, watch out in 2009/2010.
As for the rest, I put Pitssburgh above the rest on the strength of their pitching. They might have the trio of starters in the division with Snell, Duke, and Gorzelanny. Too bad the rest of their team is replacement level. St. Louis should just move their team to Birmingham, AL this year, due to their close relationship with Dr. James Andrews. This team is Pujols, Wainwright, and a whole ton of reclamation projects. I get the feeling that La Russa is going to just take it easy this year. As for Houston - hooray for the Ed Wade era! They should make their front office motto "Keeping mediocre middle infielders and middle relievers away from YOU since 2007"
NL West:
While Arizona's great season last year was kind of fluky, this year they truly have reloaded to make themselves a 90+ win team. There should be lots of development on their young players, and getting Haren was a great deal for them too. The NL west should be a tough division, but I think that they are the cream of the crop. The Dodgers should do well too, despite Joe Torre and Ned Coletti. That said, the more ABs Juan Pierre gets, the less likely they will win the wild card. Also, let's have a Moment of Silence for Scott Proctor's and Jonathon Broxton's arms...they will be hanging on by a thread by the end of this season. The Padres will continue their all pitching, no offense ways but they just don't have enough talent to compete with the top 2 teams in the division. I don't get all the love for the Rockies. Last year was certainly a great story, but they're still the Colorado Rockies. Look, I admire their retooling to offset the Coors effect, but they're really just the Phillies in a different stadium. The Giants will be awful. At least last year they had Bonds (still one of the top 5 players in baseball, when he plays at least). This year...well....they have Lincecum and Cain. And, um... (maybe I better change that...)
AL East:
I'm not as high on the Yankees as a lot of people. Chances are that at least one of their young pitchers will get injured/be ineffective, and the longer that Joba is in the bullpen the more it will hurt this team. Wang and Pettite should be good to great, but I don't expect them to have truly stellar seasons. They don't have very much pitching depth if more than one person goes down.
Likewise, I'm not wild about the Jays. Their rotation should regress, and I don't see much upside in their offense either other than Alex Rios. Tampa Bay is a good, young, up-and-coming team that should take advantage of down years by the Yankees and Toronto, and of course the terrible, terrible Orioles. It's going to be a long, long year in Baltimore.
AL Central:
Everyone seems to be all over Detroit, but I still think Cleveland is the better team. Detroit has a good offense but their rotation and especially their bullpen is much more voliatile. I still like them to grab the Wild Card in the AL though. The White Sox could have been a lot worse - they made some decent moves in the offseason but now was not the time to do it. They needed to rebuild in the face of the twin juggernaughts of Cleveland and Detroit this season. I could see the Twins or Royals moving up a few wins here, but really the teams right now are pictures of small market mediocrity (though they certianly still have more upside than, say, the Pirates).
AL West:
Even with the injuries to Lackey and Escobar, the Angels are clearly the best team in this division. Seatlle waaaay overplayed its talent last year, and while they did improve by adding Bedard, losing Adam Jones will hurt them. Oakland will be better than most rebuilding teams, but still has no shot. Texas still doesn't have pitching (who'd a thunk it?)
by berselius on Mar 30, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotta believe
this is the year for the cubs, as long as lou sorts out the lineup and dempster can deal - if there is too much lineup juggling, soriano especially could struggle
My view:
mets, cubs, dodgers, wc: braves
sox, tigers, angels, wc: indians
CUBS over angels - tigers O is money, but they are turning into the a-rod led yanks
1st BCB post ever! hope it takes
Soriano a lo profuuundo-NO-NO-NO-NO! (Spanish for "Soriano hits a home run!)
by CubbyBlues on Mar 30, 2008 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Old San Francisco button
Al - Didn't they call that button the Croix d'Candlestick?
by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 30, 2008 12:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, indeed they did.
I have an "Honorary" Croix de Candlestick that they handed out at the 1984 All-Star Game. It depicted Stu Miller being blown off the mound by a gust of wind (which happened in the 1961 ASG that was played at Candlestick).
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What a great souvenir
I'd love to see that! Please post a picture of it sometime if you can. Thanks!
by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 30, 2008 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seconded!
Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager
by northsider on Mar 30, 2008 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will try to find this later this week.
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 31, 2008 4:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Bruce's atricle
you can click on a link for the opening day lineup. They give a little blurb on each starter and have a few pictures.
by sue369 on Mar 30, 2008 1:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That NL West
is so hard to predict. I am with those who think that AZ, despite the run differential from last year, will come out on top. Anyway you look at it though, those teams are all going to beat up on each other and it really is a crap shoot as to who will come out on top.
by gwood on Mar 30, 2008 1:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thought it was a pretty good assessment
except a couple things:
1) You said AZ's pitching in turmoil, why's that? Except for Randy Johnson, who can get injured at a moments notice, they are pretty solid both Starting and Pen
2) For Cleveland you said, "Sabathia and pray". Carmona is a pretty good pitcher plus, besides Borowski, they have a pretty good pen
3) For Texas you said, "Josh Hamilton. And Then?" Ian Kinsler is pretty good and so is Michael Young.
Just saying. Plus you need to fix up your Tampa assessment, for hitting it says, "Good Starters... Bullpen, not so much"
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 1:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Who's the closer in Arizona?
Trading Valverde was a risky move.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Lyon.
At least for now.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Lyon's the closer
plus they have Qualls and Pena setting him up and Juan Cruz (yeah, I know, don't laugh but he did have a 12.8 K/9 Innings last year, think he may have found his niche) coming in for a fireman sort of roll.
Lyon has been getting lit up so far in Spring Training, so unless that carries over, they are pretty good in the pen.
Then their starting pitching of Webb, Haren, Johnson (if healthy), and Owings (who can hit the snot out of the ball)is pretty good.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Max Scherzer
who might be the closer in Arizona by the all-star break.
The D-Backs pen is decent. Some reliever will step up to fill the most overrated position in sports (the closer in the pen).
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on Mar 30, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
I must have inadvertently flipped the Tampa hitters and pitchers.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
I took it as a joke, like you were saying, in you best Steve Stone snark imitation, that "as hitters, the Rays are a pretty good pitchers," meaning they suck on offense. So much for my take....
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Your take is funnier than the real post. Actually, the Rays offense is decent (presuming Pena hits like he did last year).
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 30, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they could be good on "O"
but I really don't think Pena will sustain that HR pace. His previous career high in HR was 27, and he had a nearly 200 pt jump in SLG, from a previous career high of .477 to .627. Now, he also had a career high in walks, at 103, from a previous career high of 77, but also set a career high in SO with 146. If he can stick with his renewed patience, maybe he can approach last years numbers, but if you look at his career numbers, especially his numbers at AAA, last season begins to look more and more like an anomaly.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he can sustain that kind of production
Pena had a career year and that's basically it, IMHO. Perhaps he figured something out but I doubt it. The Rays will be good offensively I think especially after Longoria gets called up, and Pena will contribute somewhat but not to last year's extent.
I could see them placing third above Toronto and above .500 for the first time, I think, ever.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mine...
NL East
1. Phillies
I think that they have the best offense in the league, and I think they'll have just enough pitching to hold off the Mets.
2. Mets (Wild Card)
People seem a little too high on the Mets right now. Yeah they have a good offense, and yeah they have Santana. But Alou probably won't even appear in 100 games, and certainly won't start in that many, and Delgado is not the same as he was 2 years ago. Offense good (I think just slightly ahead of the Cubs) and Pitching is above average (although the pen seems pretty 'meh').
3. Braves
Solid offense, solid SP, and solid pen. But they aren't strong enough in any area to take command of a division.
4. Nationals
Better than the Marlins.
5. Marlins
Hanley Ramirez and Uggla are good, but not THAT good. (as in enough to carry a team like the Marlins)
NL Central
1. Cubs
Solid offense, an above average rotation, and a top-notch pen. I don't think our SPs finish 2nd in ERA again, but I'm confident that it should be in the top 5. I think there will still be some lineup tinkering, but the team certainly got better and deeper.
2. Brewers
Great offense, may be only behind the Phillies IMO. SP could be OK, Gallardo could have a breakout year and Sheets could stay healthy. The bullpen should also be improved. They lost Cordero and replaced him with 3 new pitchers. (Yes I know that they lost Linebrink as well, but he was awful for them so he doesn't count for me). I think Gagne is done, but one of either Riske or Torres could have a good year and make that pen better than it was last year. A lot would have to go right for them to make the playoffs.
3. Reds
I think they could honestly be serious contenders if it weren't for Dusty. He doesn't deserve all of the flak that he gets, but he is an awful fit in Cincinnati. Patterson and Hatteberg should not be starting over Bruce and Votto, and Bailey should be in the rotation. If he let them mature in MLB, they could be contenders come July. Instead, they could easily be sellers at that time. Look for Harang and Aroyo to have big years though.
4. Astros
Offense is much improved, but that rotation is in shambles. I think the fact that they play 81 games at Minute Maid will help their record a lot, and playing plenty of games in Cincy and Wrigley plays into their strength as well. Still not a good team though.
5. Pirates
The rotation is the strength of this team. In the next two years it could become one of the better rotations in the league. A lot of those guys are just coming into their prime, and they could suddenly become contenders. Offensively though, they're short at least one impact bat, and they will have trouble attracting / keeping big talent.
6. Cardinals
Getting ready for '09. Pujols should just have the surgery alread. Rotation might be OK come August if Carpenter and Mulder are back and effective. But they will likely be so far gone at that point it won't even matter. Offense is pretty weak too once you get past Pujols and Glaus. Duncan is a good righty masher, and Ankiel will probably be OK. But it's a far different team than it was just 2-3 years ago.
NL West
1. Diamond Backs
Does anyone have a better starting rotation than Arizona? They have 2 aces and some solid guys to round it out. Not to mention that if Johnson can have 1 last healthy season, they could be lights-out. That pen is still really good even without Valverde. The offense doesn't scare anyone, but a bunch of youngsters maturing together should.
2. Padres
Pitching wins, and I think they have better pitching than the Dodgers do. The offense isn't good at all, but if they can make a midseason move to help it out, they could become contenders.
3. Dodgers
The pitching is very good (although I like the Padres' pitching better). That offense will keep them from competing come September though. A speedy / contact style game plays well at Chavez, but on the road it doesn't work so well when the other team can jack it over the fence and you can't.
4. Rockies
Great offense, bad pitching. They should be an exciting team to watch with a great young core (offensively at least) growing up together. Good luck on getting hot enough to go 21-1 again, because that's what they'd have to do to contend at all.
5. Giants
That Zito signing is looking really good right now, right?
AL East
1. Red Sox
Great offense, great rotation, best in the AL.
2. Yankees (Wild Card)
This one I'm not as sure about, simply because I don't know how the vets will respond to Girardi. People have been doubting the Yanks for a couple years now, and they still make the playoffs. That offense is just too strong for them to not make it. That rotation is OK, as is that pen. But if the vets can't perform with the new manager, things will get ugly.
3. Blue Jays
Solid team, but can't compete with Boston and New York
4. Devil Rays
I like rooting for teams like this, but unless there are several breakout years at once, they aint going anywhere.
5. Orioles
Growing year. '09 maybe if they work on that rotation.
AL Central
1. Tigers
Great offense, and a very good rotation. The pen is a little hurt right now, but they should be firing on all cylinders come mid-season, and they could really pull away then.
2. Indians
Great offense and a very good rotation. But that pen is just plain bad. By August, the extra workload shoved on the starting pitchers could start to hurt them big time, and that could be a reason that they do or don't win the wild card (it's either them or the Yankees).
3. White Sox
People seem to think that this is going to be a really bad White Sox team. While I don't see them making the playoffs, they will be far from terrible. That offense could be fantastic, they could potentially have 5 guys with 30+ HRs in that park. The rotation isn't awful, but it's certainly not good. They have a fine #1, and Vasquez is an acceptable #2, after that it gets pretty dicey. But considering that the pen blew something like 20 games for them last year, I think they are going to be a better team.
4. Twins
I don't know much about them except that some have them picked as a dark horse contender. They should still be a very good team as that's a very smart organization. They still have a great offensive core, and if I'm not mistaken, Liriano could be coming back this year right?
5. Royals
They're the Royals.
AL West
1. Angels
I know that they're banged up right now, but they have enough depth to tread water at or above .500 until the get things back in order. The have a good offense and good pitching, with really good depth. That means they are well covered for injuries, or have the ammo to make a trade that could make a big difference.
2. Mariners
It'll be close in the AL west. The Mariners should be a very solid team, but I think that they will fall just short of catching the Angels. They will likely be in contention for the Wild Card, but I don't see them winning it.
3. Athletics
Better than the Rangers.
4. Rangers
Better than the Royals.
I don't like predicting playoff outcomes, because sooo much happens in between now and then.
by WittyUserName on Mar 30, 2008 1:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
NL West: DBags
NL Central: Cubs
NL East: Mets
NL WC: Phillies
AL West: Seattle
AL Central: Detroit
AL East: Boston
AL WC: New York
Cubs over Phillies, DBags over Mets
Cubs over DBags (revenge...)
Boston over Seattle, Detroit over New York
Boston over Detroit
Cubs over Detroit. Book it.
In Bo I trust.
by Schwa on Mar 30, 2008 2:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How...?
...could the Cubs beat Detroit in the WS if you have Boston winning the AL Pennant??
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
by ronsanto10 on Mar 30, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
improved pitching
Pitching: Um, well, we hope it's improvedI have no idea what this means, considering that the the Cubs were 2nd in the NL in pitching last year.
Sure, an improvement is always nice, but the pitching sure wasn't the problem last year.
by big_lowitzki on Mar 30, 2008 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I predict
That the first 162 games of the season will have a lot to do with determining the division winners and wildcards.
Good stuff again, Al! Come on Z, don't get too excited tomorrow and take the sink out of your pitches!
by kentmeister on Mar 30, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not for nothing,
but I count five ex-cubs on the Padres:
Prior, Rusch, Barrett, Maddux and Gerut. The Padres are that much more likely to fail with five former Cubbies!
Love the site!
by 14theofleury on Mar 30, 2008 3:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Unbalanced?
Yes, Al's view of the White Sox is not fair & not balanced, again.
4) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
I think a fair prediction would be 3rd.
Hitting: Unbalanced
How so? Where and why do you say so?
With the additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher actually the Sox have two run producers. They both should get on base for the strong middle lineup.
Pitching: Pitching? Who needs pitching?
Question, would you swap Carlos Zambrano & Ted Lilly for Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez? Well, I wouldn't swap them. IF it's a crap shoot for the Sox 3-5, well how sure are Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill and Jason Marquis? For two years straight Marquis' been left off the play-off roster of his teams. Take a look at Dempster's recent numbers as a starter and you'll see why he was stuck in the bullpen.
Defense: Defense? Who needs defense?
Let's take this comparatively position by position defensively:
Catcher: AJ (not much to judge the Cubs rookie by)
3rd: Crede
SS: Orlando
2nd: Uribe
1st: Lee
LF: Swisher
CF: Pie
RF: Dye (I don't think many have seen enough of Fuku to seriously claim that he's better than Dye.)
Some will no doubt argue on this, but the Sox defense has improved and I'd say it's better than the Cubs. Clearly though it's not as bad as Al's sneering comment states.
Intangibles: Watch Ozzie's head explode! First manager fired! Fun!
This has been the mantra of Cubbie fans ever since Ozzie was hired. Of course when Ozzie was hired Cubbie fans were boastful about the great Dusty and how he was going to lead the Cubbies to the post-season year after year.
It's funny that there was moaning and groaning here about a local columnist who didn't share the optimism of Cubbie fans. Then this overly negative sneering comment about the Sox.
It's no big surprise that Al's perspective of the Sox is skewed so negatively. It's par for the course
(The Sox will) be hard-pressed to win 70 games next year. - Al
Yellon, Dec. 14, 2004
2005 White Sox
* 99 wins
* First place from game 1 to 162
* 11-1 in the post-season
* WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Hey, be happy Cubbie fans, Phil Rogers predicted the Cubbies would win 98 games this season.
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Please, as I know from personal experience,
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Mar 30, 2008 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't follow your example...
...of responding with personal attacks.
My comments are responding to a comment on baseball and on the topic at hand, if YOU can't handle that fine.
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A response to a couple of your points:
Fukudome is better than Dye in RF, seen video of him at work and he's a very good fielder. Just because its his first year in MLB doesn't mean we don't know anything of his defense. Same with Soto, he was always a very good defensive catcher but suddenly he started hitting the cover off the ball.
I also definitely wouldn't call Hill a question mark. If he can replicate last year's numbers he could be the best 4th starter in baseball. Also, Vasquez had a career year last year, before last he had never had above 200 K's in a season and an ERA below 4.00 so I would say he is much more of a question mark than Rich Hill.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Career year...
Defensively, if you're right (and I'm inclined to agree with you about Dye/Fuku) that makes the teams equal defensively, hardly worthy of Al's disparaging comment on the Sox defense.
Also, Vasquez had a career year last year, before last he had never had above 200 K's in a season and an ERA below 4.00 so I would say he is much more of a question mark than Rich Hill.
First of all, the bold comments are simply wrong. Vaz. has been over 200 K's 2 times and 2 other seasons he was just under 200. And ERA, he's been under 4, 3 other times in his career.
If Vazquez' success is to be dismissed as "career year" what about Hill? He's a 28 year old with one full year in MLB, is the only way for him up? Couldn't that have been his "career year?"
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I was a bit off on Vasquez
And was pretty much just using the top of my head for a reference but here are his stats since 2003:
ERA K
2004 4.91 150
2005 4.42 192
2006 4.84 184
2007 3.74 213
Being a 31/32 year old pitcher who hadn't been very good in 3 years to have a sudden resurgence isn't out of the question but would assume that the previous years numbers are more likely to be what to expect out of him. Being a 28 year old pitcher and a 32 year old pitcher is a world of difference and would assume that the 28-year-old has much more upside than the 32-year-old.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not over the hill...
So the so-called "career year" for Javy is not in reality a "career year."
Javy's always had very good "stuff" and as a result has been pitching in MLB since he was 21 years old. Hill on the other hand is 28 yrs old, was drafted 6 years ago and is coming off his first complete season in MLB.
I'd take Javy over Rich Hill and I'd take him over Ted Lilly too.
The head-to-head comparisons are interesting and to me they reveal that the Sox are probably as good as and possibly better than the Cubbies. The upside of this for the Cubbies is that they have the luxury of playing in the weakest division in MLB while the Sox are in perhaps the toughest division in MLB.
Either way though, Al's comments on the Sox, if they were made by any local columnist about the Cubbies, they'd be roundly attacked here as overly negative, unfair and biased.
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to show you how good Vasquez has been
this is a quote from Rotoworld, "but in his first three years outside of Montreal, he had posted ERAs over six in eight of 18 months." Besides last year, he has been pretty bad overall. And yes, I would say that 32 is where pitchers start to decline. Over the hill? Probably not, but he is on his way down.
After your two starters, Buehrle and Vasquez, the White Sox starting pitchers are Sad, John Danks (5.50 ERA last year)? Contreras (5.57 ERA last year)? And who else? Honestly, how can you even say that the White Sox starting pitching is not a complete mess with a straight face is beyond me.
Then the Bullpen? Besides Jenks, the White Sox have possibly the worst Bullpen in baseball.
So, granted, yes, I'll give it to you that the White Sox have the ability to be better offensively (if the old and injury prone line-up can stay healthy all year) and possibly a push defensively. But in regards to pitching, the Cubs are head-and-tails better than the White Sox.
Yes, Al may be taking a biased approach in predicting the Cubs (but there are also a lot of people who aren't Cubs fans predicting them to be a good team). However, I would say that your assessment of the White Sox is more than a little biased and a little off-base yourself to believe they have a chance to do anything at all this year.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does the revered Rotoworld say about...
Lilly (32 yrs old)?
Dempster (31 yrs old)?
Marquis?
from Rotoworld, "but in his first three years outside of Montreal, he had posted ERAs over six in eight of 18 months." Besides last year, he has been pretty bad overall. And yes, I would say that 32 is where pitchers start to decline. Over the hill? Probably not, but he is on his way down.
No, in all but 3 of the last eight years he's been very good.
IF and that's IF Lilly repeats (if not a career year then one of his better years) and IF Hill does well then the Cubbies have three good starters. I'd say though that Lilly, Hill are not locks, heck even Zambrano was wobbly for the first part of last season. If Zambrano, Lilly and Hill were so good why did the Cubbies only win 85 games in the NL Central and why did they get swept in the post-season?
After the Cubbies top two or possibly three, honestly, how can you even say that the Cubbies starting pitching is not a complete mess with a straight face is beyond me.
Contreras is a key for the Sox. Danks is as well. I'm very encouraged by what I've seen from Danks this spring. Contreras was the Sox opening day starter last season (and what an awful start and season it was for him) but I think he'll return to 05-06 form.
You can mock me and laugh, but of course people here were boastful and cocky about so many lousy Cubbie teams as to lose track. Heck even in the '06 season people here were Pollyanna's even past the mid-point of that 96 loss season.
Buehrle & Javy will be very good again. Contreras will return to 05-06 form. And Danks will be a very good #4.
It's spring and hope springs eternal.
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like how you completely ignored you bullpen
Contreras, someone who is perhaps almost 40-years-old, is probably not going to be returning to form anytime soon, I'm sorry to break it to you. If Contreras and Danks are keys to the White Sox, that lock is staying shut. Danks could come around and become a good #4 but that will still leave you with a very bad #3 and #5 plus a bullpen that will give up 5 runs a game before they make it to Jenks.
Your quote by me is out of context, ever SINCE he left Montreal, Vasquez has not been a very good pitcher. I would say a pitcher who has done very poorly in 3 of the last 4 seasons is much more likely to repeat the bad instead of the good, no matter how you try and spin it.
I like how you rag on the Cubs starting rotation, considering they were 2nd in the national league last year in ERA at 4.04 while the White Sox team ERA was 4.77, good for 11th in the AL while doing absolutely nothing to improve it in the off season. And overall, for both leagues, the Cubs ERA came in at #4 while the White Sox came in at #24.
Sorry, the White Sox pitching is horrendous and there's really nothing you can say to counter that other than; the pitchers who pitched well last year will not regress and the pitchers who pitched poorly last year will get better. That really isn't much of an argument.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Zambrano, Lilly and Hill were so good why did the Cubbies only win 85 games in the NL Central and why did they get swept in the post-season?
It takes more then three good starters for a team to win. The Cubs had the second best pitching staff in the NL and 4th of all of baseball for a reason. The reason why the Cubs only won 85 games last year is because they started out 22-31. Howry, Eyre and Ohman pitched awful at the start of the season, and their bullpen blew a bunch of games early. Plus they had Wade Miller in the rotation in April, Michael Barrett awful defense catching, Cesar Izturis at SS, Soriano was in CF, and Jacque Jones struggled early in the season.
The Cubs called up Marshall and Marmol in late May. To give us a strong 5th starter and late inning reliever. Plus Howry figured things out and returned to form. We traded Izturis and started Theriot at SS who was a 280s/340s hitter until September. We got rid of Barretts poor defense, poor game calling behind the plate. We got Jason Kendall even though he's also poor at throwing runners out, he calls good games and actually hit pretty well for us. So mix that with Jacque Jones having a big second half. We went from a 22-31 team to a 63-46(best record in NL and second in baseball) from early June on. So there was a different Cubs team that started the season compared to the one that ended the season. As for the playoffs we just played bad, and our offense was much worse then our SP in the postseason. I personally think the team ran out of gas after coming back from 9 under 500 and 8.5 games out of first in late June.
After the Cubbies top two or possibly three, honestly, how can you even say that the Cubbies starting pitching is not a complete mess with a straight face is beyond me
They have a solid pitching staff, look at the guys track records. We added Jon Lieber(4.28 career era) to a team that was THRID OR FOURTH in baseball last year. So if the Cubs rotation is a mess I would like to see everybody elses. Does this look like a mess to you
Zambrano-82-55, 3.41 career era
Lilly-74-66, 4.46 career era(4.06,4.31 and 3.83 last 3 healthy years)
Hill-17-17, 4.39 career era(4.17 and 3.92 last two years)
Marquis-68-61,4.56 career era(4.43 as SP in 07)
Dempster-52-59, 4.99 career era(as SP)
Lieber-129-121,4.28 career era(4.52 in second half of 06 and 07 as SP)
Marshall-13-17, 4.83 career era(3.92 era last year)
So how about you look around the league and tell how many teams have at least five SP with career 4.56 era's or lower. Especially when two guys like Hill and Lilly pitched much better then their career numbers in recent years. Both overall era's are kinda weighed down by struggles early in their careers.
Buehrle & Javy will be very good again. Contreras will return to 05-06 form. And Danks will be a very good #4.
It's spring and hope springs eternal.
Good luck, my girlfriend, dad, and close friends are all White Sox fans. So I hope they do well, but even my White Sox fans friends all agree the Cubs have a better team right now.
by cubsfan25 on Mar 31, 2008 3:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To make all happy...
...my final thoughts in this discussion.
I wish the White Sox and Cubbies to win their pennants. A Chicago World Series would be cool, although it would have been even better in 2006.
Enjoy opening day and for the time being at least both Chicago teams are in first place.
Baseball is back, again!
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding Al's comments
Yes, I agree - if Al was a columnist, his comments would be considered by many to be "overly negative, unfair and biased." However, he is not a columnist. I'll leave it to Al to say whether or not becoming a columnist is on his list of aspirations, but this is a Cubs blog. Looking for fair, unbiased comments here is like looking for objectivity at Fox News or Al Jazeera.
"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen
by BlueSox on Mar 30, 2008 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right...
... especially about Fox.
But if a blog is biased then why are people expecting unbiased and positivity from a columnist?
Columnists, especially Jay M., are muckrakers and who's sole objective is to rile people.
It does strike me as funny to hear complaints about objectivity or a columnist being overly negative and then do the same thing yourself.
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News
by DrCrawdad on Mar 30, 2008 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that some columnists intentionally...
... rake the muck with a decidedly negative rake to sell newspapers. Rosenbloom, on the Tribune side of town does the same thing. As for "striking you funny" that humans complain about what other humans do and do it themselves -- well, welcome to the human race my white sox friend.
By the way, I like that you post here. Getting riled up is one my favorite past-times. We can take the heat. We're Cub Fans!!!!!
"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen
by BlueSox on Mar 30, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vazquez
isn't a good pitcher on a good teams. Look it up. The way he pitched in 06 with having the blow ups in the 5th or 6th innings should show you that. Even last year he had a 4.50 era the first two months of the season, and when the Sox fell out of the race he pitched much better. His good years all came on bad Expos teams and a bad White Sox team. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a 4.50 plus era next season.
Sox aren't as close to good as the Cubs, Gavin Floyd sucks, John Danks maybe will be as good as Marquis this season. Plus your crazy if you really really think Contreras will bounce back at his age. Sure it's possible, but it's more unlikely not to happen. AL comments were just saying whatever else is saying about the White Sox this year. They have major SP question marks, and really need some hitters to rebound because Swisher and Cabrera isn't going to take them from one of the worse offenses in baseball to a good offense this year.
by cubsfan25 on Mar 31, 2008 2:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
Vazquez is a good pitcher on a bad team, when he's in a close division race or has alot of pressure on him he has fell apart in years past. Will that keep happening? Who knows. But you can't count on him to be as good next year IMO.
by cubsfan25 on Mar 31, 2008 2:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ridiculous
Just because someone posts something else about another team, he's a troll? He was just making statements. Hope this isn't the future...
by lamentir on Mar 31, 2008 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Open hostility...
...I've been posting here for years. The hostility and personal attacks have risen exponentially in the last year or so.
Just because someone posts something else about another team, he's a troll? He was just making statements.
And here's the thing, Al posted his uninsightful comments about the Sox. I responded to a comment HE MADE about the Sox, I didn't bring it up out of the blue. The thing is, I shouldn't have been the only one calling that out. And I further believe my post was baseball on the topic at hand.
Al's comment was hey, I'll just say it, dumb. The Sox acquired a two time Gold Glover and have a very good defender returning from injury (Crede) and Al says about the Sox, "Defense, who needs defense?"
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News as quoted in The Cubs: The Complete Story of Chicago Cubs Baseball
by DrCrawdad on Apr 12, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question, would you swap Carlos Zambrano & Ted Lilly for Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez? Well, I wouldn't swap them. IF it's a crap shoot for the Sox 3-5, well how sure are Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill and Jason Marquis? For two years straight Marquis' been left off the play-off roster of his teams. Take a look at Dempster's recent numbers as a starter and you'll see why he was stuck in the bullpen.<
Are you serious? Rich Hill had a 3.92 era in 195 IP, with 1.19 and 183 SO in his first full year(2.93 second half era in 06). But it's a crap shoot with him and Contreras? Contreras had a 5.40 era in the second half of 06 and a 5.57 era last year and is at least 38 or 39 IMO. Yes Marquis has been left off the playoff roster the last two seasons, but that doesn't take away the fact that he had a 4.43 era as a SP last year. Plus he has a 4.56 era in his career, and has been a solid bottom of the rotation starter three of the last four years(not to mention he's only 29).I think John Danks will improve this year, but he isn't going to probably be better then a solid 5th starter. Gavin Floyd sucked with the Phillies, couldn't make the Sox rotation out of camp last year, so just because their handing him the rotation job doesn't mean he will be any good. Dempster could possibly suck just as bad as Floyd, but if he does the Cubs could go to Lieber who's had a 4.20,4.93 and 4.52 era the last three seasons or Marshall who had a 3.92 era in 19 starts last season. If Floyd, Contreras or Danks suck this year who do the Sox turn to? So it's very far from a crap shoot, and silly that your even bringing it up.
RF: Dye (I don't think many have seen enough of Fuku to seriously claim that he's better than Dye.)
Yes we have, the guy is a very good defender with a very strong arm, and won Japans verison of the gold glove in Japan a four times(I believe). Plus don't forget Soriano has the best throwing arm for a LF in baseball. But honestly the Sox have a pretty solid defense team overall.
With the additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher actually the Sox have two run producers. They both should get on base for the strong middle lineup.
Swisher high OBP will help, but Cabrera doesn't have that high of a OBP and isn't a upgrade over Iguchi in the number two spot OBP wise. The Sox were third from the bottom in runs scored last year, last in batting average and OBP. So it's going to take more then Nick Swisher to turn that line-up around. Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and AJ Pierzynski all need to have much better years. Jim Thome needs to stay healthy, and 7-9 in the line-up can't be a black hole. Ramirez looks good this spring, but I'm not sold on him, Crede sucked at the plate every year but 06 and is coming off back sugery and Uribe just sucks. So the line-up could be alot better, but there's also a TON of IF's there.
by cubsfan25 on Mar 31, 2008 2:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont have
a long post in me like some of the replies here, but . . .
I would take Ramirez over Crede at third. Ram's defense has gotten a lot better since he joined the Cubs. Plus, he could have and, IMO, should have won the gold glove last year.
by gwood on Mar 31, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Take
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Card: Phillies
AL East: Red Sox
Central: Indians
AL West: Seattle
Wild Card: Yanks
Cubs over Indians.
Like the Mets in the East, will rebound over collapse last year. Phils just don't have the depth in the rotation, will miss Rowland.
Cubs will win the central with a Reds team much better than anyone could imagine even Dusty.
Dodgers, Torre adds ten wins alone.
Cubs come out the NL.
Red Sox are loaded, period. Yanks have to much youth in the rotation, but pound the ball, Orioles will be horrid, the bullpen is about as good as Mechancisburg Senior High school 1975,
Indians will come out of the Central, Tigers have no pen either. Twins will better than expected
I like Seattle a lot, Angels lose Escobar which is a blow.
Seattle in the upset over the Red Sox
Cubs win in 6, win the Series
Go Cubs
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Mar 30, 2008 4:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Even have preview and still jack it up
Cubs over Seattle, that is it.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Mar 30, 2008 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My chance to be Nostradamus...
or a total idiot.
NL East: Braves -- most balanced, best depth
NL Central: Cubs -- best pitching in the division, good defense, enough hitting
NL West: Rockies -- I probably would have gone with the Snakes until the Doug Davis issue came up.
Wild Card: Phillies -- great offense, good defense, suspect pitching
AL East: BoSox -- I think the Yanks' "young guns" will have some growing pains
AL Central: Indians -- Detroit has too many question marks on the mound. (Royals in 4th, Sox in 5th)
AL West: Angels -- despite the loss of Lackey and Escobar, they still have a good rotation
AL Wild Card: Tigers -- great offense plus Jim Leyland
I think the BoSox come out of the AL. The NL playoffs will be a crap-shoot. It will come down to pitching, so that means the Braves and the Cubs. I pick the Cubs in a 7 game series.
On paper, the BoSox are a better team than the Cubs, but the better team doesn't always win in a 7 game series, especially when reversals of 100 year jinxes are involved. So...
The Cubs will win the World Series. There, I said it. And I mean it. I think.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Mar 30, 2008 4:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
'Great Offense plus Jim Leyland'
Predictions for Leyland: 32-1, 1.18 ERA, 265 IP, 284 SO, 7 BB
I kid, I kid!
Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager
by northsider on Mar 30, 2008 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
am I ....
missing something about met pitching. i keep seeing posts saying all the mets have is johan and then meh on the rest of the staff. john maine is a stud. i'll go out on the limb and say he wins 20 games this year and is their best pitcher. now with all that said the cubs are gonna win the NL and go on to become WS Champs!!! opening day is almost here......................
GO CUBS GO!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Mar 30, 2008 4:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Bias
This is the last place to look for an unbiased prediction. Why is a Sox fan on this sight anyway. Once again more concerned about the Cubs than their own team.
That said, where's the bias. Almost everyone is picking the Cubs in their division. And nobody is picking the White Sox in their division. Baseball Prospectus said the Sox would have 72 wins last year. There was an uproar but they were right. They say the Sox will have 77 wins this year. I disagree. I think they'll have 81. But who cares.
by Rick B. on Mar 30, 2008 5:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the predictions...
I just hope the Cubs live up to it. I think we will learn a lot in this first home stand. I really hope that it won't take 60 days for this team to learn to play together (like least year). I hope they come flying out of the gate this year!
This is our century!
by LAcarl519 on Mar 30, 2008 11:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not that it matters,but...
Just for kicks, here are my wacky predictions for 2008:
AL East: NY Yankees. Why? because I'll be hanged and tar-feathered at home if I say that the Red Sox will win. Besides, with an old Wakefield and no Schilling, the Sox are vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Yankees improved both their bullpen and their starting rotation. Watch out for Toronto, though. They'll make a run for it but will fall short.
AL Central: Cleveland indians. The Tigers will fall short on pitching.
AL West: Seattle Mariners. The Angels pitching is suspect.
Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
NL East: I'll pick my dark horse here. I believe the Mets pitching will fail, again. Santana notwithstaning, there are too many oldies in that pitching rotation. The best team in the division are the Phillies, but I always choose one good team to fail and it won't be the Cubs, so my pick to win the division is the Atlanta Braves.
NL Central. The Cubs. Best team in a weak division. Watch out for the Cincinnatti Reds to give everyone a scare. Dusty's teams are usually good in his first year and decline afterwards.
NL West: Arizona. It's a well balanced team with better pitching that last year, IMHO. It should be a close race, though, with the Rockies and Dodgers in pursuit.
Wild card: Philadelphia.
I never predict playoffs in advance. Too many intangibles. But we might see the Indians win a WS title, at last.
As to the Cubs, I agree that the team is improved, though it wouldn't hurt to get another starter along the way. I'm alway worried when the Cubs rely too much on Kerry Wood, but I am confident that he is OK and that if, God forbids, he gets injured, there are alternatives in what, on paper, looks like a very solid bullpen.
Baseball is back. Go, Cubs, go!
by Fraggin Judge on Mar 31, 2008 8:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Marlins led the majors in errors last year...
And don't look any better this year. Maybin is the only improvement and he's starting the season in AAA.
Not sure their defense qualifies as "outstanding".
...
by Chitown Mojo on Mar 31, 2008 9:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Gotta disagree on the Mets rotation, Al...
They're a lot more than Johan and a bunch of question marks, in my opinion. John Maine is pretty good. Odalis Perez had a great year. They're in a similar category to Lilly and Hill, if you ask me. If Maine and Perez are questions, I'd argue that so are Lilly and Hill. And they have a healthier Pedro. He's not the Pedro of old, but if he stays reasonably healthy he's certainly better than Dempster or Marquis. Pelfrey/Hernandez is probably as questionable as Dempster/Marquis. Maybe worse, maybe better. But I think the Mets pitching is going to be pretty darn good this year.
by SouthernCub on Mar 31, 2008 10:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You meant Oliver Perez.
But was that a fluke? Perez was never that good before.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Apr 1, 2008 4:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2008 Predictions
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Rockies
NL WC: Braves
AL East: BoSox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Mariners
AL WC: Tigers
WS: Cubs over Tribe in 6.
Visit The Digital Gazette
by Jed Taylor on Apr 2, 2008 1:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

by 

















