Milwaukee @ Chicago GameThread, Mar 31, 2008 1:20 PM CDT

Open Thread: Cubs vs. Brewers, Monday 3/31, 1:20 CT

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:22 AM CDT in Game Threads

Milwaukee @ Chicago

We made it! It's Opening Day.

You've already read all you need to, I'm sure, about the "100 years" thing... so you won't be hearing any more of it from me. In fact, the most important thing about this afternoon is the weather forecast:

Today: Occasional rain and thunderstorms before 1pm, then periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Areas of fog before 1pm. High near 58. Breezy, with a east wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

The latest I've heard is that an area of rain will come through in the early afternoon, possibly delaying the start of the game -- but then there will be a window in which they should be able to get the game in.

Bruce Miles sums up the NL Central Division in his weekend column.

This game thread is a little different from the game threads posted under the old SBN format. Later on, you're supposed to see a link to "Milwaukee @ Chicago" at the top of this post. There's a live linescore that will pop up and automatically update when the game starts, and I think there will be other links, as well, including to the lineups and starting pitchers. In the meantime, here are the starters for today:

Today's Starting Pitchers


C. Zambrano Cubs	vs.	B. Sheets Brewers


18-13	W-L	9-7
3.95	ERA	3.87
177	SO	128
101	BB	25
23	HR	20
vs. Mil	--	vs. Cubs

Stats are 2007 season stats

*Opening Day Starting Lineups*
Cubs	Brewers
Theriot, ss	Weeks, 2b
Soriano, lf	Gwynn, cf
Lee, 1b	Fielder, 1b
Ramirez, 3b	Braun, lf
Fukudome, rf	Hart, rf
DeRosa, 2b	Hall, 3b
Soto, c	Hardy, ss
Pie, cf	Sheets, p
Zambrano, p	Kendall, c

Yes, that's right -- according to the Brewers website, Ned Yost is going to hit Ben Sheets 8th and Jason Kendall 9th. This never worked when Tony LaRussa did it, so I don't expect it'll be a big deal for the Brewers, either.

Batter/pitcher matchups: Derrek Lee has hit 5 HR in 44 AB vs. Sheets, and Z himself is 5-for-12. Prince Fielder is .381/.500/.714 against Z, with 4 doubles and a HR in 21 AB. Jason Kendall is 9-for-26 (.346), all singles. Z has handled Bill Hall well -- 5-for-33 (.152) with 16 strikeouts.

You can see the game on ESPN2 if WGN-TV is not available in your area. (The ESPN2 feed will be blacked out in Chicago.) It's on radio, and on XM, and at the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (2007 version)

MLB.com Gameday (2008 version - this link has pitcher stats and splits up)

Discuss amongst yourselves.

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Comments

Why everytime I see a pitcher batting 8th...

...I think of Major League for some reason? It just sounds ridiculous enough that it would be in that movie. Ah, Yost.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 31, 2008 9:26 AM CDT 0 recs

"this never worked when Tony LaRussa did "

It has resulted in a higher runs scored/game each year he has used it.

by sdrone on Mar 31, 2008 9:29 AM CDT up 0 recs

Yep

And increased wins. But hey, what are stats? Let's just go with comments out of nowhere.

by lamentir on Mar 31, 2008 9:32 AM CDT up 0 recs

Of course..

The increased runs and wins were all due to batting the pitcher 8th right?

Wood for closer.

by wicubfan on Mar 31, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up 0 recs

Got any specific stats to back this up?

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:32 AM CDT up 0 recs

On a recent Neyer blog, I believe he estimated if

..a team stuck with this all season (instead of the way LaRussa has done it) it could be worth one or two wins a season.

I will look up it up and provide later as I have to head over to Wrigley!

Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Mar 31, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up 0 recs

Do you?

Why is the onus on him to disprove your unsupported statement?

Not that I'm saying you're wrong, it just drives me crazy when people do this on the internet. But hey, since I like your blog I'll help you out Al - I'm that kind of guy!

According to David Pinto:

The models predict a much smaller increase in run scoring when the pitcher hits eighth -- maybe 0.02 runs per game, or about three runs over a season.

It turns out that pinch hitters negate much of the advantage gained by switching the No. 8 and No. 9 hitters. While switching a poor hitting pitcher and a decent No. 8 hitter can add about 0.1 runs per game, when you factor in the other players who bat in the pitcher's spot, there is not enough difference between the eighth and ninth hitters to increase scoring noticeably.

So, there should be a slight gain but it's barely negligable. Though when you're talking a couple of runs over the course of a season, that's certainly not something you're going to notice just by looking at the box score.

Pinto adds:

Still, the job of a manager is to give his team the highest probability of winning, and Yost and La Russa are thinking outside the box to do just that.

...which I think is right on the money. Even if it's only 1 or 2 runs per season, shouldn't the manager find every single little strategic advantage that he can, no matter how small?

Another thing is that the gain seems to vary from model to model, but it seems they all agree there is a gain, it's just a matter of how slight it is.

by Wreckard on Mar 31, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up 0 recs

shouldn't it depend on the pitcher?

Putting Z in front of Theriot might be a good idea, but putting Lilly or Hill in front of Theriot, not so much, because it's more likely that in later innings, they'll be PH for?

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on Mar 31, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up 0 recs

I think

It's more to do with having a greater likelihood that you have someone on base in front of you big bats. With a better batter hitting in the 9 spot you are more likely to have someone on base when the 2-3-4 guys come to bat in innings following the first and second... Just my guess though

by 26.2cubsfan on Mar 31, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up 0 recs

The pinch hitting issue...

...actually works in favor of the idea. What you're trying to do is increase the odds that your 1-2-3 hitters come up to bat with someone on base ahead of them. There's an out that's basically conceeded in the lineup; you're trying to position it to where it's most advantageous to you.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 31, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up 0 recs

Come on now guys...

this is like a family wedding that gets interrupted when your drunk uncle has one too many and tries stealing one of the bridesmaids and gets into a fight with her husband.

IT'S OPENING DAY! We've got the rest of the season to bicker!

by Great Odin's Raven on Mar 31, 2008 10:25 AM CDT up 0 recs

Sure do

I backs my statements up.

La Russa used the order for the final 56 games last season. The Cardinals went 28-28 after starting the season 50-56. With the pitcher batting eighth, the offense boosted its production from 4.3 runs per game to 4.6.

Article: http://www.bnd.com/sports/cardinals/story/291986.html

Now, I'm not saying this was the main factor, but it obviously played a part. To say "this never worked..." is not even close to being right, however.

by lamentir on Mar 31, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up 0 recs

couldnt this easily be attributed

to rick ankiel and his early am delivery of hgh every other week?

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Mar 31, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

... or a hundred billion other factors, for that matter.

It's one thing to correlate data. It's quite another to actually show causality.

"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen

by BlueSox on Mar 31, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

Like I said

Yes, there are tons of factors why their runs scored went up, including the lineup switch. But "this never worked..." is more of an absolute or finality. Poor choice of a statement.

by lamentir on Mar 31, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up 0 recs

A couple of people have beat me to the links

I'm still looking for the vivaelbirdos post where the runs scored before/after the switch was made during the season was evaluated. The team scored more runs with the pitcher batting 8th, though there may have been another factor or 2 as well (the diff was much larger than expected).

My search fu is awful today. I dunno why I can't find the post.

by sdrone on Mar 31, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up 0 recs

I'd be interested to see some of those stats...

...simply because if it is "more runs scored" that is a bit harder to quantify than the-same-exact-lineup-only-switching-hitting-order. I'm not a hardcore stats guy, so I'll wait for cwyers or the like to post some info.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 31, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up 0 recs

Have to agree......

sorry Al,but Baseball Prospectus numbers bear this out season after season. While not posting too much information I shouldn't be, I'll say that this is the lineup that would bear the Cubs the most runs this season, normal baseball logic be damned:

Fukudome
Lee
DeRosa
Ramirez
Soto
Soriano
Pie
Pitcher
Theriot

Now can you imagine the reaction on BCB if Lou rolled out THAT lineup???

by USCKB on Mar 31, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up 0 recs

Let Me Be The Second Post...

... and say GO CUBS!!! 2008 is the year!

Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!

by initram on Mar 31, 2008 9:29 AM CDT 0 recs

Thanks for...

...the Miles article. Let's lead off the season with a W! - TL

"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Mar 31, 2008 9:30 AM CDT 0 recs

I sure hope this stormy stuff

peters out down here in west central IL and doesn't make it to Chicago! It is really rumbling and it's dark enough the street lights are on. I wish I could be on here all day , but I must resist! I am DVRing everything for when I get home from cursed work! Have a great opening day everyone and I will be on here this evening!!!

Geovany Soto you're my Hero

by love the ivy on Mar 31, 2008 9:32 AM CDT 0 recs

Radar shows...

... it heading this way... BUT after it goes through there appears to be a break enough for several hours. So the game may be delayed but it should be played.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up 0 recs

If...

for some reason it wasn't played. You think it would be made up tomorrow, double header, or later date?

"The one that invent the light tried 2,000 times and finally he did it, we have light...I don't want to spend 2,000 times to win Opening Day" Carlos Zambrano

by CubsBullsBears on Mar 31, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up 0 recs

Likely Tomorrow...

...that's why the schedulers add the next day off day in the midwest for this very reason.

This may have been the only thing the schedulers got right!

Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!

by initram on Mar 31, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up 0 recs

Happy Opening Day Everyone!

It's been a long winter, but Opening Day is finally here!
Here's to a magical 2008!!
Go Cubs Go!

by Tangled Up In Blue on Mar 31, 2008 9:33 AM CDT 0 recs

Theriot leading off??? Yuck.

I'm not one of the people here who freaks out a lot about lineups, but giving your team's worst hitter the most at bats is just never, ever a good idea.

by Wreckard on Mar 31, 2008 9:35 AM CDT 0 recs

Spark plug...

The engine doesn't start without the spark plug baby! ; )

"The one that invent the light tried 2,000 times and finally he did it, we have light...I don't want to spend 2,000 times to win Opening Day" Carlos Zambrano

by CubsBullsBears on Mar 31, 2008 9:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

Well...

... we don't have Roberts yet.

(duck!)

Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!

by initram on Mar 31, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up 0 recs

Who is this "Roberts" of whom you speak?

This one?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

Must be this one

by lilkimmer77 on Mar 31, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

Really? I'm gonna disagree...

Calling Ryan "The Riot" Theriot the worst hitter on the team is a bit of an overstatement, he may only be batting a career .276 (still, not to bad and improving) but did you know he's got the 2nd highest OBP with .341? (tied with Fontenot, Lee at .367, and i chose not to count soto's 30 game OBP of .368)

That being said, i'm much, much happier with Theriot leading off then i was last year with Soriano starting us off. Maybe if the guys can get comfortable in this lineup, Soriano can get those 90+ RBI's we paid for.

Luke

by Luke82385 on Mar 31, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

Where are you getting your numbers from?

His OBP last season was .326. So, even if we're going to completely ignore half of all hitting abilty and leave slugging out of it, he was the worst starter from last season hittingwise. Yes, his OBP was lower than Soriano's. And he took fewer pitches, too!

[As for slugging - okay, so you don't need a shortstop to hit 25 homers. Whatever. But for a guy with as much speed as he's supposed to have, he doesn't hit a lot of doubles.]

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Mar 31, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

I've waited for this day...

Since that nauseating moment Jose Valverde got the final out of the NLDS last year.

Happy Opening Day everyone!!
THIS IS THE YEAR!!

"The one that invent the light tried 2,000 times and finally he did it, we have light...I don't want to spend 2,000 times to win Opening Day" Carlos Zambrano

by CubsBullsBears on Mar 31, 2008 9:36 AM CDT 0 recs

And...

...now we get to see more of him.

Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!

by initram on Mar 31, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up 0 recs

anyone......

who needs 3 ud box sect. 427 for today?
face value........they are at will call...........respond here and i can email you my cell # to arrange

by plenz on Mar 31, 2008 9:36 AM CDT 0 recs

It's been pouring

in central Iowa and unfortunately heading your way in Chicago. I for one am tired of the off season, IT'S TIME TO PLAY BALL! Go Cubs Go!

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Mar 31, 2008 9:37 AM CDT 0 recs

can't belive I woke up legitimately sick today

at least I have good timing, assuming I am awake for the game

by TC Cubby on Mar 31, 2008 9:39 AM CDT 0 recs

LOL

Got a good chuckle outta that one. "Legitimately", because the rest of us Cubs fans have to fake it!!

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 31, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up 0 recs

LOL!

What did they call the fourth choice during the poll (was it Sat?)...

"Blue Flu"?

That's not the legitimate way, I guess.

Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!

by initram on Mar 31, 2008 9:43 AM CDT up 0 recs

lol

i woke up legitimately sick too... except i have tickets... so i decided to tough it out, come to work, and leave as planned in about 30 minutes here...

by bobby h on Mar 31, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up 0 recs

Really?

Even if I was sick today my boss would think I was lying, the thought crossed my mind though when I woke up and it looked like crap outside...again.

I can't believe the day is finally here, it really is a good feeling to know that there will be cubs baseball to watch mostly everyday. We deserve it after that winter.

Lets do it Cubbies

by slocs55 on Mar 31, 2008 9:43 AM CDT 0 recs

Wouldn't it be nice

To win the series and take a quick little lead in the division over the Brew Crew.

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Mar 31, 2008 9:45 AM CDT 0 recs

making this a must win?

hahah.

I used to be "Jones," but I got swooped on the redesign.

by Mr Snrub on Mar 31, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up 0 recs

Nope

It would make Wednesday a must-win, though.

(I didn't say it'd be nice to sweep - just win, the first series.)

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Mar 31, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up 0 recs

Al

If the game does get delayed or canceled could you be sure to put an update in your original post? I know I'm not the only one who's going to be avoiding the game thread because I'm hoping to watch it when I get off of work.

Thanks.

"I don't think anybody's paying attention to the Cubs." - Prince Fielder

by jasoniniowa on Mar 31, 2008 9:47 AM CDT 0 recs

Well...

... I'll be at the ballpark, so that'll be hard to do from there. If it's postponed, obviously, I'll write that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up 0 recs

I understand

I just don't want to get geared up to watch some "real" baseball and find out I've just taped 2 hours worth of Growing Pains.

"I don't think anybody's paying attention to the Cubs." - Prince Fielder

by jasoniniowa on Mar 31, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up 0 recs

Hey

that Kirk Cameron is one funny mo-fo.

by Great Odin's Raven on Mar 31, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

Just saw him the other day

on some religious channel shilling for Jesus.

"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen

by BlueSox on Mar 31, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up 0 recs

LMAO

Set your DVR for more than 2 hours, then!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

The Baseball Gods

Cannot possibly let anything like that happen

by lilkimmer77 on Mar 31, 2008 9:53 AM CDT up 0 recs

In monitoring the webcams

inside and outside of the park, people are wearing hoods and hats, but crucially, not carrying umbrellas. It looks really wet everywhere, but it must not be raining all that hard. Sure, they can play in that!

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Mar 31, 2008 9:56 AM CDT 0 recs

Soon as I say that

out come the umbrellas.....

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Mar 31, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

It's not raining hard...

... right now. But heavier rain is supposed to come through in a couple hours, then pass by for most of the afternoon.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

Where did you find those cams?!

They are great!

Does the inside cam stay on during the game?

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 31, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up 0 recs

They've been around awhile

But I don't know if the inside one stays on during the game.

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Mar 31, 2008 10:11 AM CDT up 0 recs

Heres a look at the live Radar this image is out of Lincoln,IL looks like we are going to have a delayed start. BTW the purple circles indicate hail within the storm.

Afterwards, like AL said we SHOULD fingers crossed get this game in.

"I guess you had some lean years, and didnt have to beat it hard" - Craig Sager

by Galvan316 on Mar 31, 2008 9:57 AM CDT 0 recs

Hail?

Ugh.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 31, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up 0 recs

Nice radar

I was about to post the radar from over at NOAA.

by miamicanes on Mar 31, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up 0 recs

It passed though IC pretty quickly

I'm optimistic.

"I don't think anybody's paying attention to the Cubs." - Prince Fielder

by jasoniniowa on Mar 31, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up 0 recs

I'm in

Iowa Falls and it'still raining and thundering here moving east.

by sue369 on Mar 31, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up 0 recs

Yeah

The loop radars I have seen has the line moving pretty quick

by miamicanes on Mar 31, 2008 10:02 AM CDT 0 recs

Title - Rain

Text - Who gives a rats a$$.

"The Cubs can't be stopped" -- Me

by lilkimmer77 on Mar 31, 2008 10:03 AM CDT 0 recs

Happy Opening Day, everyone!

Y'know, it's funny, like all of us, I wait in torment throughout the off season for baseball to return but, now that it's here, I feel mostly...overwhelmed.

So much information and so many emotions to process. And all the uncertainty regarding the weather isn't helping matters. Ah well...not complaining, mind you. Just feeling excited, anxious and, yes, somewhat blessed that the Cubs are fielding what appears to be a very competitive team this year.

I say again: Happy Opening Day, Cubs fans!

Go Cubs!

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 31, 2008 10:04 AM CDT 0 recs