2008 Community Projections: Carlos Marmol

by Al on Mar 5, 2008 8:30 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 31 comments

You make the call: will the man with the filthy slider become the 9th inning pitcher, the "Closer"? Or will he continue to put out fires in the 7th or 8th innings?

I say he's much more valuable to the team in the setup role, and will become one of the top setup men in the National League in 2008.

G 70
GF 10
IP 85
H 60
ER 12
BB 36
SO 118
W 4
L 0
SV 2
SVOPP 3
ERA 1.27
WHIP 1.13

Carlos Marmol's career stats at baseball-reference.com

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So, saw on the ESPN crawl that Soriano's

now out 1-2 weeks.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Mar 5, 2008 8:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That probably came from...

... this Paul Sullivan article. Doesn't give any specifics.

Besides, it's spring training -- if he misses two weeks now, so what?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2008 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, not a big deal now,

but i'd still rather have him out there, given the choice.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Mar 5, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Marmol

I can only hope he's as good as you say. If he has a season like that, he arguably would deserve to finish high in the Cy Young voting.

I think he's very good, and of course I agree with Al he's far more valuable as a set-up guy, going two innings quite often to just shut the door in the 7th and 8th. These days, it seems like the set-up guy gets the real saves. You can put any warm body in to hold a 3-run lead for one inning in the 9th. Even Joe Borowski, as Cleveland demonstrated last year. Let's not waste Marmol on situations like that.

"Hey hey - kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, 5-17-79

by danimal15 on Mar 5, 2008 9:32 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well

I wouldn't really call a lights out 9th a "wasted inning" but I completely agree with being able to stretch him to two innings occasionally to maximize his value.
There's no coincidence at all between him pitching in that capacity last year and the Cubs success.

by morgane on Mar 5, 2008 9:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why can't he be our old-school fireman?!

You know, the Goose Gossage type. Gets us out of a jam in the 7th or 8th and comes back to finish them off in the 9th.

by Jerry Mumphrey on Mar 5, 2008 9:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think

but of course with my lack of baseball knowledge, I could be wrong. I think that after going through the lineup once or twice hitters will adjust to him.

If my memory serves me correctly, that was a problem with him in '06 when he started games. Thus the current role is best suited for his abilities. I think....

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Mar 5, 2008 10:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I think the ideal way a game should go is the starter goes six strong, pitches into the seventh, once he starts to waiver and allow runners, Marmol comes in and gets the hold. Howry a spotless 8th. Wood a spotless 9th and the save. With his strikeout ability Marmol is most valuable coming in with men on base because he doesn't allow batters to put the ball in play and move baserunners over.

W-L: 5-1
K: 126
BB: 38
ERA: 1.46

by JJDiesel21 on Mar 5, 2008 10:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ideal game

In my ideal game, the starter goes all 9 once in a while. If Zambrano can get his head together, he's capable of a few CGs this year.

But realistically, I like the idea of starter going 6 or 7, bringing in Marmol to get him out of a jam and perhaps go another inning, and then close the door with Wood or Howry.

Another idea - have Marmol be the old-style 8th and 9th inning guy. That's how Lee Smith used to do it.

"Hey hey - kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, 5-17-79

by danimal15 on Mar 5, 2008 10:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Al, I love it

You are as optimistic as they come. If your stats all come out I see the Cubs winning 100 games.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Mar 5, 2008 10:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

114 to be

exact..

by xene on Mar 5, 2008 10:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm very excited to see what he does this year....

G 70
GF 10
IP 75
H 68
ER 25
BB 32
SO 90
W 5
L 3
SV 5
SVOPP 6
ERA 3.00
WHIP 1.33

by Damen Jackson on Mar 5, 2008 10:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Marmol is the closer

G 65
GF
IP 72
H 68
ER 25
BB 32
SO 100
W 4
L 3
SV 41
SVOPP 47
ERA 2.4
WHIP 1.15

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Mar 5, 2008 10:32 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

If he does that...

... not only will the Cubs win 100 games, but Marmol would get some Cy Young votes.

I don't see it, but I hope you're right.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The only real differences

between yours and mine are---I have Marmol closing and you have him with the sickest ERA------Ill take mine if I could choose.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Mar 5, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure.

The only thing is, with those WHIP numbers, how does he have a 2.40 ERA?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mostly

because I threw the numbers together.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Mar 5, 2008 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

every year

About a half dozen relievers or so post something like a 2.4 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. It's not that unusual. Your projection is totally reasonable Hammer. Nicely done

What is unusual is Al's prediction of 85 IP, 1.27 ERA.

Here's a list of all the relievers in the last 6 years with more than 80 innings pitched and an ERA below 1.50

Eric Gagne, 2003

That is all.

by TampaCubFan on Mar 5, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WOW!!!!

Thats a hell of a year!!!

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 5, 2008 10:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Al,

I'd bet you 500 bucks that marmol doesn't come within .25 of your ERA projection (I almost said .5). If you look at some of his peripherals (BB/9, gb/fb, and WHIP to name a few) it becomes obvious that while he was elite last year, he also happened to have extremely good luck. I forgot how many homeruns he gave up, but you'd expect an extreme flyball pitcher like marmol to give up several more on an average season.

In all likelihood, Marmol won't post an ERA under 2. I'm not even really holding my breath for 2.50. I could definitely see him in the 2.75-3.00 range.

by Thelonious on Mar 5, 2008 10:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I won't take that bet....

... I just wanted to answer your question. Here's how many HR Marmol allowed last year:

Three.

In 59 innings, 285 batters faced.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2008 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Marmol Thoughts

I see him in setup most of the year, being a bit overused in August and September to make his numbers look only good. He will be a key member of this team.

G 78
GF 12
IP 89
H 60
ER 27
BB 45
SO 118
W 7
L 2
SV 6
SVOPP 9
ERA 2.73
WHIP 1.18

by Qixotl on Mar 5, 2008 11:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Marmol

As a setup guy:

G 76
GF 6
IP 78
H 67
ER 21
BB 36
SO 109
W 3
L 1
SV 2
SVOPP 3
ERA 2.42
WHIP 1.32

"Oh well, there's always next year!!!" Every Cub fan

by McRipper on Mar 5, 2008 11:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hope you're wrong

about IP. It would be a shame to see him be just a one-inning pitcher, the way you've forecast.

"Hey hey - kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, 5-17-79

by danimal15 on Mar 5, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

tony412

G 74
GF 13
IP 89
H 71
ER 15
BB 48
SO 124
W 6
L 2
SV 11
SVOPP 12
ERA 2.27
WHIP 1.34

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Mar 5, 2008 11:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Holds?

Probably should have mentioned it before, but Holds might be a good category for relievers.

by false cognate on Mar 5, 2008 12:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

100 IP?

It used to be common for strong relievers to rack up 100 innings or more in pure relief in a single season (with Mike Marshall of the Dodgers setting the record by pitching 208 innings in 106 relief appearances in 1974). This was back before managers were making three pitching changes per inning.

If I were manager, and Marmol kept up his solid performance, he'd pitch 100 innings or more for me in relief. The last Cub to pitch triple-digit innings in relief was Terry Adams, who had 101 innings in 69 relief appearances in 1996.

"Hey hey - kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, 5-17-79

by danimal15 on Mar 5, 2008 3:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I still think...

... if it were up to you, teams would have four pitchers, all starters, who would start and finish 40 games each. Heck with this new-fangled "bullpen" idea!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

There would be a lot more CGs, I guarantee. And no need for a five-man rotation or 12 pitchers on the staff.

My model would be Earl Weaver's 1971 Orioles. They had four starters. All won 20 games. All had 10 or more CGs.

He actually used the bullpen even less than I would. On that team, not a single reliever pitched in more games than any of the four starters. If I were managing, I'd like to have a Mike Marshall or Dick Tidrow type of reliever who could go in to face one batter one day or throw 6 innings the next.

"Hey hey - kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, 5-17-79

by danimal15 on Mar 5, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Marmol

As the fireman (not the 'setup' guy)

88 IP
115 K
42 BB
2.67 ERA
1.11 WHIP

I'm hoping Lou uses him like he did last year - to kill rallies or pitch to the heart of the order before the 9th inning. His stuff is so obscene that these nubmers should be even lower, but I think that he'll get overworked from this usage pattern and have an ineffective stretch during the summer.

by berselius on Mar 6, 2008 11:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs