How do we feel about the Cubs rotation now Cub fans?
by lemon20pie on Apr 12, 2008 9:20 PM CDT
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PrintTed Lilly, the Cubs unquestioned #2 pitcher by many posters here this off-season, is looking like he doesn't need a pitching coach to visit him on the mound but Dr. Phil, is struggelling mightily so far this season.
I distinctly recall this past winter that there were some posters here who cried out that the Cubs starting rotation needed to be upgraded.Those people were quickly and matter of factly reminded that the Cubs starters had the 2nd best ERA in the NL. Hard to argue with that no doubt, but the concensus argument to that was that Lilly had a career year and no way he could repeat it and Hill was due for a fall. Ofcourse that argument was also quickly dismissed as afterall, there's no numbers to back up that opinion. Valid.
So, as of today, the rotation lines up like this:
Zambrano
Lilly
Dempster
Hill (I'm aware he's in the pen to return)
Marquis
Here are the options to how you feel about this rotation:
A) This rotation will repeat it's success of last year
B) This rotation will still finish top 5 ERA.
C) This rotation is a middle of the pack rotation
d) Relax dudes, it's early and the Cubs are over .500 everything is cooool in Cubbie land.
e) This rotation is seriously starting to freak me out.
Feel free to add any options that I may have missed.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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The thing is
we have a plethora of pitchers that could become starters if these guys continually pitch awfully. Hart, Marshall, Lieber and eventually Gallagher could go into the rotation if needed.
Lilly - I am starting to believe that last year was a career year. But I think he will be a decent pitcher and will eventually level out. Z started off bad last season and look what kind of year he had.
Hill - No one thought he would "fall" (as you put it). Everyone thought this would be the year he finally breaks and it possibly still can be.
Relax, its April. If its like this in June, then I'll change my mind
Finally!
If you might recall..
...I actually thought Hill would "fall" this year and not "rise" to the Bedard predictions as my pre Spring Training sig attested as I have him finishing this season with a 4.35 ERA. Now, obviously I hope I'm wrong about that, because the Cubs really do need him to figure out whatever it is that is making him suck so bad, if they want to win this Division.
This team does have a ton of depth no doubt. but what is the quality of that depth?
If it's like this in June, the Cubs will be 8 games back, if they're lucky.
" I want to point something out in the quickly-becoming-tiresome Old Media vs. Bloggers debate: most stuff sucks. All stuff. In all forms. Most books suck. Most movies suck. Most magazines suck. Most trees likely suck if you get to know them. Fish, bugs, various metals -- they all probably mostly suck". - FJM 4/6/8
The Depth
is just fine for the regular season. If for some reason Hill or Lilly do fall apart this year, is the rotation of
Zambrano
Lilly or Hill
Lieber
Marquis
Dempster or Marshall
crap? Thats still a pretty good rotation, and better then most teams have. So I would say the depth does have some quality. Marquis track record shows he's a solid 4-5, Marshall pitched like a solid number 4 last year, and Lieber is pitching like he did in 04-05 again. Dempster is still a mystery, but who knows he did have one good season in his three full years of starting. Maybe he improved on one of his pitches and its making him pitch much better so far, only time will tell. Put it this way not even the Cubs luck is bad enough for 3 of those 6 guys to struggle this year with their track records.
I do
think we need Lilly or Hill to pitch well in the postseason, if were going to win it all. But the rotation even with the back up guys is still a pretty solid regular season rotation. So if worse comes to worse we should still be ok, if we hit the way were capable of. But like I said many times in this thread it's WAY to early to worry about Hill or Lilly.
No it's not
I've been worried about these two and their mental make up, since the playoffs last year as they both soiled themselves in front of a national audience. They have done absolutely nothing as of yet to ease my paranoia.
Barring career years out of Marquis and Dempster, the Cubs need Lilly and Hill to perform as they did last year if they have any aspirations of making the playoffs. I am worried about these two. More specifically, I'm worried about their confidence. Both pitchers this year have been nibbling and seem afraid to throw strikes, which to me, is a clear indicator that a pitcher isn't confident in their stuff.
I'm not writing these 2 of yet but yeah, I'm worried. That is unless Dempster, Marquis and Lieber can keep pitching well and bail these 2 knuckleheads out long enough for them to get their confidence back. Not sure if I like the odds of that however, but that's what I'm hoping for.
" I want to point something out in the quickly-becoming-tiresome Old Media vs. Bloggers debate: most stuff sucks. All stuff. In all forms. Most books suck. Most movies suck. Most magazines suck. Most trees likely suck if you get to know them. Fish, bugs, various metals -- they all probably mostly suck". - FJM 4/6/8
I agree with you.
It's too early to panic. But it's not too early to be concerned. Give them a couple more starts, at least, before we try Plan B. (Whatever that is.)
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
You gotta realize
If Hill and Lilly totally suck, like have era's in the 5's and 6's or whatever and get taken out of the rotation. That even if the Cubs had Joe Blanton or AJ Burnett or this number 2 starter of quality behind Zambrano that you think we need so bad. This team would still not do well in the postseason, and would really struggle to make the playoffs.We need Lilly and Hill to at least have era's no higher then 4.20-4.30 this season to have a good rotation. Having a rotation of Zambrano, quality number 2, Marquis, Dempster or Lieber and Marshall still isn't going to have a great postseason rotation. Because we would be very weak in games three and four.
So you could start these threads trying to hint to everyone saying I told you so. But even If Hendry listened to you and brought in say AJ Burnett, we would still be screwed if we didn't get good production from Hill and Lilly. That would be like the 2005 Cubs rotation with Zambrano and Prior, a average Maddux but weak 4-5 with Jerome Williams, Sergio Mitre and Glendon Rusch. So you are not right , because you were worried about Lilly and Hill not being as good and or being quality number 2-3s in the postseason. The point is if those guys are completely bad all year and give the Cubs nothing, no matter who the number two starter we brought in it wouldn't have mattered. Those guys being solid starting pitchers for us is necessary to do well in the posteason.
I'm not worried at all.
You cant win every game. And you can't expect Hill and Lilly to be sharp when they're getting maybe 1 or 2 runs support every time they're on the mound. Z looks good. Dempster looks good. Lieber can be moved into the rotation no problem even though I think he's pretty valuble in the pen for long relief outings. And we haven't seen enough of Marquis to have a fair evaluation.
SOMEONE SHOOT THAT DAMN PARROT!!!
true
It wouldn't have mattered much how good Lilly was tonight as the Offense stunk up the joint.
I'd feel a lot better about this loss though if Lilly could've pitched well. He hasn't had 1 good start yet.
" I want to point something out in the quickly-becoming-tiresome Old Media vs. Bloggers debate: most stuff sucks. All stuff. In all forms. Most books suck. Most movies suck. Most magazines suck. Most trees likely suck if you get to know them. Fish, bugs, various metals -- they all probably mostly suck". - FJM 4/6/8
yea, it looks like the batters are in charge of Lilly.
SOMEONE SHOOT THAT DAMN PARROT!!!
by Keystone80435 on Apr 12, 2008 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a bit worried about the Jason Marquisness...
...of Jason Marquis. But other than that, I'm pretty relaxed about it so far.
So you're not concerned about Hill or Lilly?
I am. I have been.
It's easy to say it's early and tax day hasn't even come yet, so there's no need to panic, which I agree with to a certain degree, but the state of Cubdom could be in full scale panic mode if Lilly and Hill's next 2 starts are atrocious. Afterall, we know Dempster and Marquis will be decent to terrible, but we really expected and counted on Hill and Lilly to be solid this season.
But, it's early.
" I want to point something out in the quickly-becoming-tiresome Old Media vs. Bloggers debate: most stuff sucks. All stuff. In all forms. Most books suck. Most movies suck. Most magazines suck. Most trees likely suck if you get to know them. Fish, bugs, various metals -- they all probably mostly suck". - FJM 4/6/8
Right now, Ryan Dempster has the third-lowest ERA...
...in the National League.
At 0.69.
You can either look at that and think it says something about Ryan Dempster, or you can look at it and think it says something about looking at a player's ERA after two or three starts.
I'm chosing the latter approach.
Plus
The weather is bad. The season just started. These guys hate pitching in cold, wet weather. And I'm a believer that it takes a few months for pitchers to get in the groove. They'll be fine. I mean look at the 3 win pitchers this year. SD AZ and indoor guys. Once the weather turns I think these lefties will be ok.
SOMEONE SHOOT THAT DAMN PARROT!!!
Good thing the postseason is always played in warm weather.
I've never understood this line of thinking. Both opposing teams play in exactly the same weather each game.
"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen
Agreed.
Along this line of thinking, why don't we just forfeit the first month of the season, play an extended spring training (split-squad scrimmage games) in Arizona for the month of April, and start our season on May 1st with a record of 0-27? I mean, we're out of the race, but at least now, everyone is comfortable right? This kind of excuse-laden thinking makes me so angry I might up my dosage of blood-pressure pills from one a day to two. Everyone knows it's always warm in New York in April, right? I'm sure that in all 26 of the Yankees' championship seasons, the average April temperature in the Bronx was about 75 degrees, mostly sunny with light wind.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
its really early...
..but I am a little concerned at how bad Lilly and Hill have looked so far.
We have some nice plan B's in the wings for Hill as Chanman25 mentions, but Lilly is supposed to be a number 2 and we dont have any of those...
Time for Larry to get to work..
Felix Pie must play everyday!
Well said JB
" I want to point something out in the quickly-becoming-tiresome Old Media vs. Bloggers debate: most stuff sucks. All stuff. In all forms. Most books suck. Most movies suck. Most magazines suck. Most trees likely suck if you get to know them. Fish, bugs, various metals -- they all probably mostly suck". - FJM 4/6/8
Just FYI, being an Indians fan
CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are doing terrible thus far.
Does this mean the Indians panic? Absolutely not. They still have one of the best rotations in baseball.
The problem is that we are not scoring any runs. That, and I'm now starting to become convinced that Bob Howry is a bum.
Here's a difference...
Neither Lilly nor Hill have the "stuff" of Sabathia and Carmona. And add on another name as an earlier post pointed to Zambrano's slow start last year. Well neither Lilly nor Hill have the "stuff" of Zambrano either.
When Al posted his predictions on MLB teams, I pointed out that Al's comments on the Sox were ill-informed and off-base (the Sox add a 2 time Gold Glover and have Crede returning and Al says, "Defense, who needs defense) and said that if the Sox rotation has question marks then certainly after Zambrano the Cubbies have their questions too.
Great start by Dempster though, I didn't expect that, no doubt Cubbie fans should be encouraged about his initial starts.
Other than Dempster though the Cubbies pitching and defense have not surprised me. The slow start of the offense has surprised me.
"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News as quoted in The Cubs: The Complete Story of Chicago Cubs Baseball
I am as encouraged by Dempster's early starts...
...as I am discouraged by Hill and Lilly's poor starts. Which is to say I really don't care about any of it; Hill and Lilly are both better pitchers than Ryan Dempster, and it will take more than 2-3 starts apiece to convince me otherwise.
Speaking of which
I haven't been able to see any games yet, except for a couple Dempster pitched. He looks awesome.
Can anyone tell me what is wrong with Hill and Lilly?? I'm not panicking, but their numbers look absolutely terrible. These guys were terrific last year.
Lilly had a career year last year
and it's quite possible Hill did as well.
The thing that truly concerns me about those two is they both appear to me to be....how can I put this politely......mentally weak. Could be harder for them to right the ship and steer it towards the shore than your average Captain Jack Sparrow.
" I want to point something out in the quickly-becoming-tiresome Old Media vs. Bloggers debate: most stuff sucks. All stuff. In all forms. Most books suck. Most movies suck. Most magazines suck. Most trees likely suck if you get to know them. Fish, bugs, various metals -- they all probably mostly suck". - FJM 4/6/8
let's not write them off
as career years this early.
as for mental weakness, it's definitely true for hill. I think the Cubs have it absolutely right when they say he tries too hard to be perfect. The expression on his face and his performance after giving up a couple of walks/hits in a row show his lack in confidence. If he starts out one inning badly, it usually escalates before getting better.
Lilly
did have a career year last season, but not by much.
02-5-7, 3.69 era(22 games, 16 starts)
03-12-10,4.34 era
04-12-10, 4.06 era
05-10-11, 5.56 era(pitched hurt missed all spring training and August)
06-15-13, 4.31 era
07- 15-8, 3.83 era
So when you factor in the AL and NL effects Lilly 07 was pretty simliar to his 2004 season. But overall Lilly track record speaks for itself. Going from the AL to NL does have more effect the first year, but there's still a benefit from pitching in the NL compared to AL. So even if Lilly pitches like he did in 03 or 06 his era should only be around 4.10 in the NL.(usually a 20-25 point difference i heard) So Lilly track record shows that he should be at least a quality number 3 starter in the NL. If your gonna get concerns about him, then you should be excited about Ryan Dempster and think he's gonna put up Jake Peavy numbers this year. Like every level head person says give it a little more time we shouldn't be having these stupid threads after 11 games.
Same thing goes for Hill the guy has already had a quality start this season, and really pitched one bad inning. I agree his control isn't what it was last year so far, but it's still very early for him to correct that.
it also should be noted
that lilly seriously improved his command last year, this wasn't just an AL-NL thing.
He basically had a career low in walks (for a full year), and a career high in innings. Command would seem to be a skill that can be learned, and this gives me reason to be optimistic about Lilly bouncing back.
Aramis 5 BB - 3 K, he's come close before, I'd love to see a season from a Cubs player with more walks than strikeouts.
Career year for Hill?
Not many people have their career years in their first full season in the majors, I'll go as far as to say no one does. Hill will only get better... we hope.
"The one that invent the light tried 2,000 times and finally he did it, we have light...I don't want to spend 2,000 times to win Opening Day" Carlos Zambrano
by CubsBullsBears on Apr 13, 2008 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Well,
one Mark Fydrich comes to mind. He went 19-9 his first major league season and never even pitched more than 100 innings again. But, I see your point. I don't think we've seen the best of Rich Hill just yet.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
Hill
did have a 4.17 era in 06 in 16 starts(17 games), he also had a 1.80 era in the minors that season in 15 starts. In 2005 he pitched mostly in Double A and Triple A and had a total era of 3.31. So it's not like Hill came out of nowhere and had a fluke season last year, he builded up to last year. By having strong seasons in the minors in 05-06 and pitching great in the second half in 06. I think people are overreacting more on Hill then they should be honestly. People are looking at the control problems he had in spring training and letting it infect there thoughts on Hill right now. If Lilly pitched 6 innings with 2 ER in his first start, and second start had a bad first inning and gave up three runs, but pitched two scoreless innings after nobody would even be talking about him struggling. Lilly honestly has pitched much worse then Hill so far this season. But Lilly has a bigger track record so you were almost less concerned with him in a way.
Agreed.
think people are overreacting more on Hill then they should be honestly. People are looking at the control problems he had in spring training and letting it infect there thoughts on Hill right now.
Exactly. Confirmation bias at work.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on Apr 13, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
you got it
SOMEONE SHOOT THAT DAMN PARROT!!!
by Keystone80435 on Apr 12, 2008 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Lilly
has been and will always be a 14-12 pitcher, ERA in the 4's, that is what he has done his whole career. Hill concerns me because he has no track record of success.
I still like the rotation of "Z", Lilly, Lieber, and Demp. but the 5 hole is a hole. That is the problem. The starters have been OK, I am more concerned about the hitters. Pitchers from opposing teams get away with to many 6 to 8 pitch innings against the Cubs. I want ROBERTS, There I said it, shoot me.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
I'm not too worried but...
..I will say that during the offseason when everybody was talking about TTTSNBN, I felt Hendry was looking for the wrong Oriole; we should have gone harder for Bedard. Oh yeah, and that team that swept us in October that picked up Dan Haren, they're off to a pretty good start, aren't they? Did Hendry even make a phone call to inquire about Haren? I can't remember.
But like I said, I'm not too worried...YET! Pitchers can start just as slowly as hitters; Lilly and Hill should ask Z what he's done to avoid his usual slow starts; albeit he looked like crap yesterday.
"I always tell the truth....Even when I lie." -Tony Montana
Not too worried
at this point. Hill actually threw pretty well against the Astros, not so well against the Pirates. Lilly has been horrible. I don't think Dempster is going to be this good all season long, and likewise I don't think Lilly is going to continue to be this bad. I do think that Lieber will eventually be in the starting rotation, but I'm not sure who he will replace. My gut says Marquis. Howry was horrible again tonight as well, but it's pretty damn hard to win a game anyway on one run and three hits.
It's early but...
It's still a little early to worry BUT I think we can't kid ourselves...if we pitch like the way we have anymore we cannot compete in this division.
By the way
the Cubs pitching staff is at 4.13 era right now even with Hill, Lilly, Marquis and Howry pitching so poorly. They dropped from 3rd in the NL to 10th over the last two games, but we will probably move up on the list again soon. I really like our chances of being a top 5 in era in the NL this year. I really wish some people would relax and give it at least a month or month and half before we worry about proven starting pitchers. Seriously it's been a 11 games this should not be a thread.
Things that should not be a thread are Lemon's M.O.
He is the Chicken Little of BCB, seriously.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
11 games in is too early
to worry too much. BUT............it looks like (as alot said in the offseason) there is a need for a frontline starter behind big Z. I think the biggest concern is the fact that we have varying opinions on where this team needs help most. Some say CF...............some say SS..............others say starting pitching. Which is it? If we stink in all 3 areas obviously we won't win anything. Hopefully a couple of these areas improve with whats on the roster now...........then Jimbo can focus on getting help outside the organization. We'll know alot more around Memorial day. I get probably more frustrated and pissed off than most but it really is too soon to say what kind of club this is.
remember............our competitors have their fair share of problems as well
Ask me in about...
...a month and I'll let you know. I like to see each pitcher get 6-8 starts before I jump off a cliff or write the Cubs in as World Series participants.
With that said, I predicted long ago that Lilly would gravitate back to his career numbers andHill could go up or down depending on whether he developed a change and had command. Dempster has been a pleasent surprise, and if he can keep it up, it would offset some of the troubles from the lefties.
I also predicted that by the end of the year, Leiber would be the Cubs #2 starter, and I still think this may happen. It doesn't feel too good thinking you may have to rely on Marquis to step up, does it?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
pitching
kind of early to have a breakdown on the pitching yet.we,ll see how the cincy series goes. i think the reds will light up our pitchers this week.we always have marshall and lieber to slot in the rotation.i doubt they.ll pull lily like they did hill
i am worried somewhat
but will wait until the end of this month to decide whether we are in trouble or not
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic" Crash Davis - Bull Durham
Hill and Lilly will come around guys. Be Patient.
And Dempster will have some outings where he gets shelled... it happens.
If things go wrong, due to injury or performance, at least we have Marshall, Lieber, and Gallagher. I've always liked Marshall... don;t know why he doesn;t get more of a chance. Steve Stone said once, that you shouldn't give up early on tall lefties. Said, for some reason, they always seem to take a while until they figure it all out.
Cubs 2008 (6-4)
Home (3-3) | Road (3-1) | 1-Run Games (1-2) | Extra Innings (2-1)
Updated on April 11, 2008
Rotation Stability ...
... is the key to winning the division and getting back to the playoffs. Tom Verducci at SI did a nice piece on this back in January,
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/01/22/rotation.stability/index.html
In summary: teams whose rotations make the most starts and keep the ball out of the hands of second-tier pitchers usually come out on top. Quoting the article, "The more you don't have to rely on those No. 6 through No. 12 starters, the better off you'll be. The 2007 Cubs were another good example of this theory at work. They cut their second-tier starts from 54 to 10, helping them advance from 66 wins to 85 and from last place to first."
Early returns from the first 11 games, while not much of a sample to draw conclusions from, makes me nervous. And all the more so since I felt adding a top of the rotation starter to be a critical off-season addition for this team (along with a true leadoff man). It is hard to see how the Cubs can win consistently with a low OBP top of the order and a parade of starters. Last year the pitching greatly aided an OBP and RISP challenged offense -- so we're going to have some real ugly difficulties if Lilly and Hill don't come around and soon.
If It Takes Forever ....
I would not be as worried....
if Lilly and Hill had had some tough-luck starts but the bullpen didn't come through, or they just got no run support (which Lilly really hasn't) but still pitched well, or even reasonably well. But they have been simply horrendous. I don't care if it's only mid-April, that is cause for concern. Dempster has been great, and but we have no guarantee that will continue. Yes, it's early. Yes, it's a marathon, not a sprint. I know all the cliches. But all offseason, everyone talked about the importance of a fast start. The fast start has not happened. It hasn't been a bad start, but very mediocre. If the Cubs can win today, I would consider them very lucky to be 7-5. Still, 7-5 is not a bad start, and if the Cubs can win today, I think they are in pretty fair shape, if not quite where they want to be, after the first road trip of the season.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Hill
hasn't been nearly as horrible as Lilly. Hill did pitch a quality start against the Astros going 6 innings and two earned runs.In his second start he was horrible in the first inning giving up 3 runs on three hits and two walks. But after that he settled down he had a 1,2,3 inning in the second and even though he walked two in the third he got out of the inning. Piniella kinda had a quick hook on him in that game in my opinion. It's noticeable that Hill is having control issues, but I personally don't think his control is bad enough to make him a bad starter this year. They will cause him to have a 4.30-4.60 type era though, and the Cubs need him to be better then that. So hopefully they can work out the control stuff and get him back were he was last year. But in my opinion he looks alot closer to the guy he was last year then Lilly does.
From what I heard Lilly is having arm strength issues and it's causing him to locate his pitches poorly. You would think something wrong with him physically, but according to the trainers and stuff nothing is wrong with him health wise. So Lilly has the proven track record so we should have more faith in him turning it around. But it sounds like there's more of a concern with him because it's a physical type thing. It's early though so odds are these guys will figure things out in the next month or so.
In response the post the answer of course is (d)...
...I cannot tell anything for sure about player specific performance, in terms of forecasting for this season.
In general the Cubs had some higher risk with this rotation going into 2008 because they are relying some older guys and arguably some pitchers who are not the best fit for Wrigley Stadium over the long-haul.
Rich Hill must really piss people off somehow as he's making next to nothing and he gets sent to the bullpen right away, JK. He has talent and they appear to be trying to motivate him based on how he finished last year. he's also old for the number of MLB seasons so they probably feel more urgent need to motivate Hill.
Lily is an extreme FB pitcher, not a good fit for Wrigley and not a good fit for Home Run Stadium in Philly. Lily's getting older and I think he'll struggle more this year at home and places likes Home Run stadium in Philly, but he should produce overall and be a decent starter for the Cubs.
It'd be great if Hill stepped it up and claimed that No. 2 spot, he has the talent but it may never happen. I like Marquis and then who cares on No. 5...
Of course, overall the Cubs have a general lack of star talent on the roster, even in the rotation, but it was not and is not their most pressing need.
I believe the correct answer is..
...e. I'm excellent at multiple choice questions. Let's throw Theriot and Soriano off the wagon, but we're blind to the pitchers.
Teams have won with guys like Theriot, and as far Soriano, he's on the team so look at the positives he brings instead of the negatives.
Pitching wins the big games, and we started in the right direction last year, but I thought it was obvious what are weakness was.
Z did fine, but I thought it was obvious we needed someone else in 2 spot. Also a shut down closer was needed. I still feel the same way.
I'll pick (C)
Middle of the pack. There's some concern about what's happened thus far but not time to panic obviously. It's still very early and obviously Hill & Lilly can still improve.
However, anyone who thinks Lilly was/is a #2 was/is being mislead. That 15-8 record last year was in part due to him moving to a new league. Perhaps on a middle-of-the-road team he'd be a #2 but for a team with WS victory aspirations, I'd keep him at a #4 slot like I did early Winter.
Could the rotation put out better numbers than they do right now? Sure, but as I stated a few months ago, as constructed, this team will not win the WS. They'll win the division and perhaps the NLDS but they'd have to catch lightning in a bottle to win the NLCS and even more so, the WS.
That said, I sure hope they continue at least on the pace they're on until Jim can make a couple moves. CF may still be a question a month or two from now and if there's an upgrade at SS, I'd bet Jim will try for that also. There's Marshall and Lieber that could step into the rotation but I sure hope Jim will continue looking for a true #2 type guy. The 7 the Cubs have now that could take the 5 spots (not including the supposed inevitable Gallagher) IMHO is not enough to win the WS.
Coincidentally, that infamous 22-31 mark when we all recall how things started to change last year...their winning percentage right now is just the opposite, meaning if they continue their current pace, after 53 games, they'll be 31-22. That would be a nice improvement for the 2-month mark.
Too early....
...but I like our depth if some continue to struggle. I think between our rotation and our bullpen we have one of, if not THE, deepest staffs in baseball.
Worried but not surprised
Of course it is too early to think this team will never make postseason because of the rotation or for any other reasons. All we need is for Lilly, Hill and Marquis to settle down and take command. Dempster has to continue pitching like he has so far, and Zambrano has to pitch like he did in his first two starts.
The offense also has to consistently score alot of runs and play solid defensive. This would make up for alot of the shortcomings and imperfections in the rotation.
The way it looks now, this team won't win that 2-1 game or there won't be any 2-1 games.
I'm getting more and more worried.
I read this morning that Rothschild called Lily's problems "mysterious". I hate hearing things like that because it seems to indicate that they really don't know why Lily's pitching so poorly which means whatever is wrong won't be easy to fix.
Bottom line is that if the bulk of our starters don't start giving us more than 4+ innings, our bullpen is going to be overworked and in a lot of trouble bu July-August.
"Mysterious"
might be a code word for "injured". If Lilly's hurt, it's imperative that they put him on the DL so it can be fixed, and not wait.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
You had to think...
...that Lilly would not be able to duplicate his numbers from 2007. It was a year in which he performed above his career numbers, and also a circumstance in which the league was not familiar with him. Both he and Hill are pitchers that need to have decent command to get guys out, and if they don't, they will struggle.
Lilly, will eventually find his command and come around, but I do worry about Hill because of his limited track record. Hill has better stuff, but he lacks the competiveness that has helped Lilly in the past. The next 4-5 starts are going to be important for both guys, but I think they will be critical for Hill.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
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