Losing Soriano now, could help figure things out....
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 11:16 AM CDT
74 comments
...and allow Hendry and Piniella to have a clearer picture of what needs to be done to improve the club.
There has been a long debate on whether Soriano should leadoff or not, and this injury is going to solve this issue for the remainder of 08, and possibly for future years. Although I disagree with those who say just keep putting Pie in CF and let him work it out, I do feel strongly you need to put Soriano in the 5 hole and let him work it out. For a player, who has 583 AB's in the 5-hole (a full seasons worth), he has hit: .268, slugging of .513, has 34 HR's and 107 RBI's. To me, that ain't bad for someone who can't hit anywhere but leadoff, and 107 RBI's would appear to help the team more than his 70 in the leadoff spot. It's time for Soriano to get comfortable with the middle of the order, and put his power to good use.
The other key factor is what Hendry decides to do with the gapping hole at leadoff. He tried to address it during the offseason, and now this injury is going to make his decision much clearer. They will play around with Johnson, Theriot and possibly Fukudome (I doubt it) at leadoff, but at the end of the day, the chances of Hendry making a move here just shot through the roof.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Put Theriot in leadoff for now
He’s heating up and getting on base a little more. Let him bat there and when the bat goes cold, go to plan B.
by ak123 on Apr 16, 2008 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the worst possible solution.
While people tend to overthink lineup construction, one thing is for sure: giving your worst hitter the most at bats is probably the worst possible thing you can do with your lineup.
So long as your best hitters are the ones getting the most at bats, all lineups are about equal in value over the course of the season.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why I said...
That’s why I said while he is still having good at-bats. Theriot is walking, getting hits, and that helps. If he goes 1-5 then it’s time to move him down the chain. I for one actually think he’d be an improvement over Soriano considering Soriano wasn’t getting on base much at all.
by ak123 on Apr 16, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot is not...
...the worst hitter on the team. Period. -TL
by timlacy on Apr 16, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok sorry
Second worst. Same conclusion.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously I mean
...that he is the worst or second worst hitter in the lineup, not on the team.
Pie, as of now, seems like a worse hitter, though he only plays every other day. Past that I don’t think there’s anyone in the starting lineup worse than him.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you sign all your posts each tim eyou post TL?
Just curious.
As for the lineup. Dome leads off he is best suited for this role. Johnson is closing in on Pie’s job IMO. He would be a great #2 hitter. And soriano can hop all the way down the order for all I care. i am SO annoyed with his stupid hop and now it costs us.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Apr 16, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree...
...both Theriot and Fotenot have shown they can be productive for periods of time, and then they tend to get exposed.
For the next month or so, I think you will see a lot of Theriot in the leadoff spot, and plenty of Fotenot at 2b.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 11:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Fontenot...
... can get hot, as you say.
I’d still rather see Fukudome at least tried at leadoff.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Apr 16, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto.
He could be given the spot for 5-10 games. – TL
by timlacy on Apr 16, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No wonder he was such a crappy second baseman
He must’ve been hopping over groundballs…
Cubs 2008 (8-5)
Home (4-3) | Road (4-2) | 1-Run Games (2-2) | Extra Innings (3-1)
Updated on April 16, 2008
by SackMan on Apr 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty good
A 2nd baseman with the yipes.
Cubs Win!! Cubs Win!
by Ihatethecards on Apr 16, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find it interesting that so many people react to this injury as if it isn't a bad thing.
Indeed, that was my first reaction. I thought – “Bring Murton up, lead him off, and the lineup gets a little more effective.” As I thought it through, though, I realized it’s not likely Murton will see a lot of LF playing time without anothe injury to someone else on the 25-man roster.
So, I wonder how much we undervalue Soriano. Think of it this way – if the Cubs are set on needing speed out of the leadoff spot (and everything we read says they are), then what options could the Cubs reasonable acquire between now and the start of next season or could have acquired by the start of this season, that are better?
by DGU on Apr 16, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I do not believe that speed is the asset we seek...
from the leadoff man. We need some OBP, and not someone who strikes out 130 times vs 30 walks. Also, he was only 19 of 25 last season on Stolen Bases. Not exactly a huge threat.
But I do agree that he is extremely undervalued. I just wish someone could make me understand the whole “He only has confidence in the leadoff spot” theory.
by Kansas25 on Apr 16, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you about speed;
I just don’t think Lou or Jim agree with us. So, my question remains – if we have to have a 40 SB threat atop the lineup, who’s better than Soriano and available.
I think the theory is that Soriano is better in the leadoff spot because he’s better without men on base, but I know that theory has been criticized.
by DGU on Apr 16, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
I’d say we’ll find out if we have any in-house options to fill the void. Can Murton (or Theriot for that matter) show that their initial success in the majors was more than a mirage, and successfully reach base consistently? Can Reed Johnson handle the job? Will Fukodome be tried?
IMO, we don’t have a 40 SB threat in the lineup. I just don’t believe, with Alfo’s age and injuries, that he remains a 40 SB threat. He’s been hampered by hamstrings in the past, and now he’s sustained a calf injury. Not the best places to be injured and still retain one’s speed.
If the theory is that he bats better without men on base, then we probably overpaid him by about 70 million. We wanted his run production.
by Kansas25 on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theory....
It isn’t exactly that he bats better without runners on, it’s that he’ll see more fastballs without runners on. He has a hard time with sliders and when you bat with runners on pitchers are trying to get groundouts more frequently, therefore, throwing more groundball pitches. Unfortunately, I definitely think it’s true. Not sure if anyone has stats to back that up?
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball I want someone else to go chase it. -- Rogers Hornsby
by Go Cubs Go on Apr 16, 2008 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do think it could be a good thing...
...because it forces both Hendry’s and Piniella’s hand to address these issues head on, and it will give you a feel for what you have and what you need.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
The goal of the season isn’t to figure out a consistent lineup card, which is something that people vastly, vastly overrate around here.
The point of the season is to win games, and without Soriano it will be harder to do that.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree...
...and my main reason is this will force Piniella to move Soriano down in the order. IMO, moving Soriano down in the order, will make the Cubs a better team when he returns. Also, it will force Hendry to address the hole before the deadline, which will improve the team even further.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you honestly believe
...that the net gain from moving Soriano down in the order will be greater than the net loss of having him miss at least 2 weeks of baseball?
Statistically speaking, lineups, so long as they are reasonable (ie not batting the pitcher first) can only improve your offensive output by a handful of runs over the course of the season. Losing Soriano for 2 weeks or more will cost us more runs than that, and over a shorter period of time.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes I do...
...especially missing him at this time of the year when he is not as productive. For the next several weeks, you can probably find someone who will replace any productivity he would have given you the remainder of April and into early May.
Again, Soriano hit 36 homers last year and had 70 RBI’s. If you read his numbers in the five hole, it projects at 34 homers and 107 RBI’s over a full season. Considering his high stolen base days are in serious question, why not put him in a position to take advantage of his power?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree completely
Enough is enough with Soriano. The Cub lineup has been a slave to his severe peaks and valleys for too long. Soriano is a streaky guess hitter. You don’t put a guess hitter in the leadoff spot and hope to develop any sort of offensive consistency. His struggles in the Arizona playoff series killed the offense of this ballclub more than anything else. A leadoff hitter should be one of your most consistent and fundamentally strong hitters. If Ryan Theriot is not up to the task, then put Kosuke Fukudome there.
The absence of Soriano will hopefully serve as a revelation to Sweet Lou in terms of the lineup. When Soriano comes back plop him in the # 5 or # 6 hole and be done with it.
by MDBNIU on Apr 16, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, much better to replace streakiness with consistently terrible.
At least they’ll know what to expect each day.
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
by snley on Apr 16, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only disagreement...
would be that this injury may delay his ‘coming around.’ True, he isn’t as productive this time of year, but his April struggles might be just the thing to get him turned around earlier. Missing time might just mean that he still has to go through a long period of struggles. I’d rather him play now and work through things rather than watch his dry spells continue into the summer.
by Kansas25 on Apr 16, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not defending Soriano as a leadoff hitter
Frankly, it doesn’t make a huge difference to me.
I do question one thing though – just because Soriano projects to having 47 more RBI’s in the 5 hole, that doesn’t mean 47 more runs for the team over the course of the season. You’re simply shifting the RBI’s around since you’re taking them away from the player you’re moving out of the 5 hole (and from whoever you’re moving into the 1 hole).
You have to look at a full lineup projection to figure out the net gain for the team. I would assume (based on other models of lineup construction I’ve seen) that there wouldn’t be a huge net gain for the team, certainly not enough to cancel out the loss of value from having him out of the lineup.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would argue...
....having a 30+ homerun guy with a low OBP is not a good fit for leadoff, no matter how you slice it. When you add in a leg problem, it becomes an absolute no brainer.
My philosophy is to put your three best power hitters in the 3, 4 and 5 holes, and Soriano is one of the three.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure that's a solid, traditional philosophy
I’m just saying that following that philosophy isn’t going to have nearly the impact on the team’s run scoring as you’re representing, certainly not enough to make up for losing him for 2 weeks or more.
The idea that this is a good thing for the team is silly and short sighted, and has no basis in reality.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, I disagree...
...because it forces them to address the top of the order, and this will benefit the club as the season goes on.
The last time the Cubs had a strong top of the lineup, they were close to the world series. Since that time, they have suffered from softball team lineups, that are not consistant and tend to get exposed because of their streakiness (see late 04 and 07 playoffs). When the top of your order goes cold, your big guys try and do too much, and you get what you saw against the Dbacks last year. I have seen enouph of that type of baseball, it’s time for Hendry to fix this problem, once and for all.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok so I am doing some of your work for you here
...since you’re not making a very compelling argument.
I used this lineup calculator to compare two scenarios: one where Soriano is batting leadoff, with Fukudome 5th, and one where Fukudome leads off and Soriano bats 5th.
There are 2 big caveats here:
1) I used Fukudome’s PECOTA projection which probably overvalues him slightly
2) This lineup calculator doesn’t account for stolen bases, which undervalues Soriano somewhat
Lineup A, our current lineup, was worth 5.128 runs per game.
Lineup B, which you’re proposing, was worth 5.155 runs per game.
That’s 4.3 runs difference over 162 games. So while we are better with Soriano in the 5 hole – and again, I am not arguing that we’re not, I’m arguing that your argument is specious and that we’re not better off without him – anyone we replace Soriano with is going to cost us nearly that over a short time.
So are we better without Soriano leading off? Sure, slightly. Is it a good thing that he’s going to be out of the lineup for at least 2 weeks? Dear god no.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have another caveat...
...for you, I don’t have a high degree of confidence in lineup calculators, and how well they correlate to real life situations on the field.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok.
You think we’re better off without Soriano for 2 weeks because maybe he won’t lead off when he comes back (a huge maybe) and that will make us significantly better because… of your gut feeling.
And you don’t believe the statistical argument that in this case the ends don’t justify the means here because… of your gut feeling.
I’m not sure I love lineup calculators either, for various reasons. But if it comes down to believing the numbers or believing your lunch, one of them seems strangely more compelling.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Call it gut...
...or whatever you like, but my gut is also telling me there are a whole lot of things that happen on a baseball field (that affect the outcome), that don’t show up in these statistical tools.
Statistics can be useful, but they can also lead you down the wrong path, because of inherent flaws in being able to measure human variables.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure there are
....but I’m sure they pale in significance compared to the things that are measurable.
But that argument basically amounts to an argument of faith versus science, and that’s not really going to go anywhere.
I will say, thought, that a wholesale write-off of statistical tools is a pretty silly position to take. When two men of reason such as ourselves have gut feelings in the opposite direction, how else are we to figure out which diametrically opposed argument makes more sense? How do you suppose they do it in front offices in baseball, with divining rods or spreadsheets?
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't recall stating my...
...position as a “whole sale write-off of statistical tools”. In fact, I think I mentioned they are useful.
It’s only my opinion, but I firmly believe that when statistics are taken as an “end all be all” of what is happening on a baseball field, you are going to be misled, and will miss a whole bunch of human factors that I don’t believe can be measured or plugged into a formula.
Also, I would not define a person with a good baseball mind (either scout, GM manager, etc.) as using a divining rod when they call on their trained eye for a judgement.
I guess it would be easy if everything in baseball could be predicted or defined by statistics, but then the game would be awful boring, wouldn’t it. That’s probably why they play the games, and let all those unpredictable variables go at for 162 games.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
EXTREMELY loud, sustained applause!!!!!
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Apr 16, 2008 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And where did I say they were the "end all be all"?
My point was: you have two reasonable men, with equally trained eyes for baseball. They have diametrically opposed opinions on an issue. How do you settle it? You say stats are useful, but if they aren’t useful in exactly this situation what good are they??
Of course you can never predict anything 100% with stats, but it’s better than guessing. You use your instincts, observations and gut to construct theories, but if the statistics don’t back that theory up it’s probably not a good one. In this case, you’ve come up with a theory – that the Cubs are better off without Soriano for 2 or more weeks – that the statistics simply don’t bear out.
I doubt that the Red Sox employ Bill James just to pat him on the head and patronizingly tell him that stats just mislead you and that he should just trust their gut because they know better.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I oversimplified your argument
Your theory, more precisely, is that the net gain from moving Soriano down in the order will be greater than the net loss of having him miss at least 2 weeks of baseball.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I respect Bill James...
...but how do you think his projections for Felix Pie are looking about now? The problem was he wasn’t comparing apples to apples, and that projection was heavily flawed.
I would bet, there were several scouts, etc. within the Cub’s organization and probably others, that would not agree on those projections, based on what their observations had shown them.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That faint sound you hear
...is my point missing you by a mile.
Basically what you’re saying is: because Bill James was (maybe) wrong about one particular thing, and because you can imagine that there were scouts who were right about this one particular thing, stats are therefore useless compared to the gut feeling of some scout somewhere.
Oooooooookay.
Someone once said, in a post that you apparently just replied to without reading, that “you can never predict anything 100% with stats”. Let me expand on that because the point was lost on you.
Statistics won’t make you right 100% of the time. That’s an unrealistic expectation, and if you really believe that’s how statheads see baseball I can see why you’d hate them. There are many factors – human, environmental, etc – that no statistical model can predict, and no one who understands statistics would expect otherwise.
A valuable statistical model helps guide decisions and test theories. If it is worth it’s salt, the model is right more often than it is wrong. Though there will be occasions when it is wrong, that doesn’t make it useless, so long as it’s not wrong too often.
Let me put it this way: who do you suppose makes the right decision more often, the scout with a trained eye who trusts his gut and uses statistics, or the one who simply trusts his gut?
And again, I will ask you a third time the question you keep dodging: you have two reasonable men, with equally trained eyes for baseball. They have diametrically opposed opinions on an issue. How do you settle it?
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many factors do you...
...think go into whether a hitter will have success hitting a baseball coming in at 95 mph and the next one at 85 with a nice wrinkle to it?
From my experience, I think there are so many factors involved, that any discussion would not come close to explaining them. It also should be noted, that we are talking about human factors, many of which, either can’t be measured/predicted or would come up woefully short.
It seems I have this discussion every few months with someone on this board and that is perfectly fine.
As I have stated – statistics are a useful tool in baseball, and should be used as such, IMO. But knowing much can not be measured, I keep them in perspective.
If we were talking about chemical reactions or other controled environments, I would lean your way, but that is not what we are dealing with here.
Your opinion is respected, I just have a different philosophy of how to asses baseball.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody's saying that statistics...
...can perfectly capture the reality of the situation.
But it’s a big leap from acknowledging that fact to claiming that scouting CAN capture all of the things that statistics are leaving off the table.
by cwyers on Apr 16, 2008 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By using...
...the Pie projection example, I was not implying that statistics can’t be valued if they can’t project 100% of the time. I was just giving an example of projections, that were obviously based a Pie’s AAA numbers.
With Pie, he may have had wonderful AAA numbers, but the formula for projections does not take into account Pie’s weaknesses as a hitter(either mental or physical), and how they may translate to big league pressure and pitching. This is where the trained eye comes into play, to recognize what the computer can’t.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 17, 2008 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems I have this discussion every few months with someone on this board and that is perfectly fine.
I suspect that’s because your argument against the value of statistics is so clearly based on a faulty premise.
You seem to believe that the goal of statistics is to be right all the time, when in fact the goal is to help you be wrong less often.
by Wreckard on Apr 16, 2008 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No...
...that’s not what I think goal of statistics should be, but that’s quite allright.
I will state my opinion one more time for the record:
Statistics are useful tools to help in the evaluation process of baseball teams and players.
Just because I feel that some folks put too much value on certain statistics/formulas, does not mean I think they have no place in the process.
You can call that a faulty premise if you wish, and we can all go home happy.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 17, 2008 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not trying to add fuel to the fire...
But I rely on statistics, odds and trends in everything I do, from work, to driving, to hobbies, to life.
Stats say that Soriano is relatively terrible everytime he bats anywhere but leadoff (even though he was doing a bad job of that).
Stats say that Roulette is one of the worst games that you can play in Las Vegas.
Perhaps one seems different from the other, but it’s actually kinda simple. Many people have been payed large amounts of money to figure out stats on those two scenarios so you don’t have to lose by making the wrong choice later.
Don’t forget, Piniella has tried Sori in the 5 hole, as have many others.
I apologize, but at this moment, I’m going to trust the baseball wisdom of our manager who took us from Last to first in the division last year.
.... Edit #5: We're gonna go 158 and 5 this year, I can feel it!!!
by Beaushek on Apr 17, 2008 2:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of stats...
...I highly recommend you check out his numbers hitting in the 5 hole and let me know if you would accept a 5-hole hitter with 34 homers and 107 RBI’s in 570 AB’s (about a full season).
I don’t know about you, but those are pretty tasty numbers and most teams would love that kind of production from that slot.
Lastly, I would think Soriano is even more prepared to move down in the order at this stage of his career, because he is more mature as a player. And, giving his latest leg problems, it is basically going to be an easy decision for Lou.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 17, 2008 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately though, the stats don't back up your statement
Your stats are going off of the basis that we can project his Leadoff stats over to his 5th hole stats. That would be a bad thing to do.
For example, look at his career stats in the 5 hole, and the batting average is .25 points lower. A pretty signifcant drop.
All you are looking at is moving pegs around the lineup, without thinking that a couple of our pegs are very finnicky.
.... Edit #5: We're gonna go 158 and 5 this year, I can feel it!!!
by Beaushek on Apr 17, 2008 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You lost me...
...I was not trying to project his leadoff stats from the 5-hole numbers, and I don’t quite get what you were saying there.
What I was doing was quite simple; people keep saying Soriano craters when he hits lower in the order, right? Well, looking strictly at his numbers batting fifth, he has hit the equivalent of 34 homers and driven in 107 runs in a full season’s worth of AB’s. Frankly, I don’t care about the average drop, because I am looking for power out of that spot for maximum run production. IMO, 34 dings, 107 RBI’s and a .513 slugging would be quite nice.
Again, these are Soriano’s numbers in the 5 hole, nothing more and nothing less.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 17, 2008 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
projections are okay when they’re used to support your point?
It’s clear that this thread is going nowhere so I’ll make it brief, but I’ll mention again what should be the obvious: you need to look at the impact of moving him on the overall team production of runs, not just Soriano’s line.
The goal is to score more runs overall, not just Soriano’s triple crown stats.
by Wreckard on Apr 17, 2008 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have...
...but It’s pretty clear you didn’t fully read what I have written, if you have come to the conclusion that I am concerned about Soriano’s triple crown stats.
My thought is simple; where would Soriano’s strengths be best served in the batting order? I say 5th, and I listed his 5-hole for those that say he folds up like a cheap suit lower in the order.
I’m done with this one.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 17, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Your read is based on the idea that the Cubs biggest problem is Soriano leading off. On the other hand, if the Cubs biggest problem is Ryan Theriot playing SS against right-handed pitching, then Soriano’s injury may have the opposite effect.
by DGU on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see Fukodome...
in the leadoff spot. Keeping Theriot (or possibly a recalled Murton) in the 8 hole combined with some decent hitting pitchers (Z and Marquis) should still give Fuk more RBI opportunities than most leadoff men. It’s worth a shot. And, if it works out, let Soriano’s comeback begin in the 5-hole, which might offer A-Ram a little extra protection, as it seems teams aren’t quite fearful of Fuk yet.
by Kansas25 on Apr 16, 2008 11:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Amen!
Is there a more prototypical leadoff hitter on the Cubs than Dome? He sees a lot of pitches, high OBP, some speed. Fonze, minus the stolen base threat, seems like an ideal 5-holer…power and RBI potential, and no one will pitch around A-Ram to get to him. I’m not sure why this is such a huge debate…it seems obvious. Until Fonze gets back I would let Pie work on his swing in Iowa, put Reed in the 2-hole and Soto at #5.
by NashvilleBlue on Apr 16, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say since DeRo is hitting well...
he should take either the 2 or 5 spot.
by Kansas25 on Apr 16, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I could see the 5 hole for DeRo
he doesn’t strike me a patient enough the 2 spot, but put him 5th and Soto 6th wouldn’t be bad. To someone else’s point on here earlier, I think we all tend to split hairs on the line up a little too much…but it is fun.
by NashvilleBlue on Apr 16, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Lineup
Alfonso Soriano has been a fly in the ointment to a consistence offensive attack. It looks like he is going to be out for at least a few weeks. One of two things will happen. Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot and Reed Johnson will fill in the gap at the top of the lineup admirably. Or, their limitations will become more fully exposed. Also, the loss of Soriano puts added pressure on production out of the center field spot. That means Felix Pie is probably on a shorter leash now.
Personally, I’d love to see Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa at the top of the lineup. I’m not sure how Sweet Lou can get that to work though. Leaves too many suspects in the # 5 thru # 8 spots.
by MDBNIU on Apr 16, 2008 12:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Leadoff & Pie
Leadoff will be pretty difficult for the Cubs to fill. I think outside of getting Roberts, you can try having Fukudome leadoff… but IMO he is best suited for the 2nd slot because he also can have key RBI’s. Soriano probably should hit 5th, although he is disruptive at every part of the lineup (i.e., he is neither a leadoff man nor an RBI guy… would drive must of us nuts if he got more chances with men on base). So… I think this will be a lingering problem throughout the season unless the Cubs get Roberts.
Pie… well…
You know everytime I hear Pie has only had 28 at bats or so I cringe. Either people have selective memory or they are willing to completely discount his performance in the Dominican, where he had the SAME struggles. Don’t talk to my about small sample. He is guesser at the plate who can’t make contact if his life depended on it. Scarily vulnerable to high fastballs and low breaking balls, and as MPH73 has pointed out, misses a lot of fastballs down the middle. This is the same Pie I saw in the Dominican. Felix Pie will not make it in the major leagues unless he changes his swing drastically and he won’t be making drastic changes while in the majors. Lou took one look at Fontenot at SS and saw enough and got him out of there. I think many of us have seen enough of Pie to know that more at bats simply won’t change his great problems.
I know about samples sizes and all that stuff. I’ve seen stats from some hitters who struggled mightly when they got called up and went on to have great careers. I don’t think there is ANY evidence to suggest Pie is going to be one of those. The more he hits the more it becomes readily apparent that he won’t make it as he is now. I remember saying the same thing when I saw him play in the Dominican.
I’m glad Lou won’t simply keep running him outthere while he looks like this. It’s one thing to have bad stats, it’s quite another to keep having awful at bat after awful at bat as he is doing. Unless Pie does some drastic changes to his swing and approach (at AAA first) he will become another Corey Patterson, and perhaps not even that. I think you can pretty much bank on it.
by Luis on Apr 16, 2008 12:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I imagine
With Soriano’s repeated history of injuring his legs, and with the fact that he will have to be “eased” back into 100% running, I can see him being moved down in the lineup simply because one of the reasons he was there to begin with is no longer a marketable tool for him—speed.
"Oh, I get a little tired now and then, but knowing my lifestyle, that's only natural." -- Harry Caray
by Cribbs463 on Apr 16, 2008 12:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Outfield
Man, I’m worried about my team’s outfield. Though Soriano has been slumping, I haven’t worried about him eventually coming out of it and making a major contribution. However, if he’s injured, that likely isn’t going to happen (unless your name is Kirk Gibson). Even if he only misses a week or two, I am fearing their might be more to his leg woes than what we see. Still, it shouldn’t hurt his bat… too much. It didn’t late last year anyway…
Between him and Pie, that’s two-thirds of the Cubs outfield is unable to get the job done right now… I think the Cubs need something solid, and reliable in both spots for the time being. Al said something about Kenny Lofton… who I wouldn’t mind being on the team. He always does a solid job on either team, plus he’s been in numerous pennant races.
Maybe the Cubs need the return of Murton also. I like Murton… I don’t expect big numbers from him, but I do believe he’ll be solid.
I just figured if the Cubs got something dependable from both spots; it would help the team kick it up another notch. Then, once Soriano gets his stuff together, then that in itself would help the team improve once again.
Anyway, I’m worried about this outfield!
by TheHawkRules on Apr 16, 2008 12:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pie
I agree that Pie seems to be at a place where he still has big value in a trade, maybe the Cubs should pursue that. He is still very young and I would be very comfortable with getting a solid veteran who can produce. It is crazy to see a waiver wire type pick up with Reed Johnson have success and see Pie struggle. Johnson seems like he knows what he is doing and gets the job done. Why dont we get Roberts now! Trade Pie and get another guy to play CF along with Reed Johnson. Consider the fact that all it takes is another 3-5 yrs for another Felix Pie type prospect (or corey patterson) to come about.
by ragamuffindaniel on Apr 16, 2008 12:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Baseball is a funny game
I believe because baseball is already a game of “celebrated failure” to win games you try to minimize your weaknesses. I mean a guy is doing well if he can only hit a pitch 1 of 3 times up to the plate. We call him a hero if he can get on base less than half the times he is up. My point being… Soriano is obviously a big league hitter with power and his numbers will come around, but if he’s not gonna be able to have speed on the bases or have patience at the plate, why not put him where he can do the least damage ie: 5 hole ahead of Soto (so he will see at least a few good pitches) and let his hitting ability shine or at least dont let his lack of speed and lack of ability to take pitches kill you.
by RMRZisMYmanCRUSH on Apr 16, 2008 12:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
why taking so long?
anyone else wonder why the announcement about Soriano’s injury is taking so long, when the MRI was done last night?
maybe they’re deciding on whether a DL stay is necessary?
by neifi on Apr 16, 2008 2:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The doc...
...probably wanted to examine him again today to get the latest.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Apr 16, 2008 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ill assure you he is going to the DL
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Apr 16, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No reason to let Dusty know who's coming up too soon
is my guess.
by DGU on Apr 16, 2008 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks doc
just thought they usually release the results of an MRI which don’t take long to diagnose
by neifi on Apr 16, 2008 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree 100%.
Bad things happen for a reason.
by Fraggin Judge on Apr 17, 2008 3:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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