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Sweep!

Remember yesterday when I told you the Pirates were a bad team? And some of you disagreed with me?

The Pirates are a really, really, really bad team. The Cubs smacked Pirates pitching around again today for 13 runs (this time on 18 hits and seven walks) and completed the series sweep with a 13-6 blowout of the Pirates that wasn't as close as that score.

You could point out -- and some of you did and they also did on the WGN radio postgame show -- that the Pirates are over .500 against the rest of the league. What does that say about the rest of the league? -- that'd be my argument. And this is what a good team is supposed to do against a bad one -- win nearly all the games. So far vs. the dregs of the NL Central -- the Pirates and Astros -- the Cubs are 8-1 (and 11-4 vs. the Central overall). And the Cardinals, who started out so hot, just lost two of three to the Giants, who are even worse than the Pirates.

Example of how bad the Pirates are: their pitching staff issued 19 walks to Cubs hitters in this series.

Now think about that. That's about five percent of all the walks that Cub hitters drew in the entire 2006 season (395 of them that year). Cubs hitters are taking a cue from Kosuke Fukudome (who sat today due to a minor eye problem; he'll be back tomorrow) and are being very, very patient. They have now drawn 81 walks in 18 games -- that's 4.5 walks per game, which would be 729 walks for a full season, or nearly twice as many as they did under the non-base-clogging philosophy of Dusty Baker.

It's easy, Dusty: get guys on base and a lot of them will score. A simple thing, really.

And that's what the Cubs did early and often today. Reed Johnson -- who has been a revelation in the leadoff spot and a good reason why Alfonso Soriano shouldn't ever, ever be placed back in that leadoff spot, ever (did I say ever? And the Cubs are playing better without Soriano. At this point, Alfonso, don't hurry back!) -- led off the bottom of the first with a double and scored on Ryan Theriot's single.

Theriot had four hits and a walk today. I know, I know. He's not this good. Yes, I know. He's not going to hit .340. But would any of you -- even those of you who have devoted a ton of time to statistical "proof" that Theriot can never, ever improve and that he's a terrible hitter, etc. etc. admit that maybe, possibly, he might have a career year this year? That maybe he can push his game to a higher level? I heard today that Theriot spent quite a bit of time in the weight room in the offseason. We are seeing the results already -- he's now hit five doubles in eighteen games, and the ball seems to come off his bat with much more authority than it did a year ago. When I say there are things that cannot be measured on a stat sheet, that's one of them. Stats can only tell you what has occurred, and project what might occur in the future -- not tell you with 100% certainty what will occur in the future.

At least admit that it's possible. Deal?

Almost too many kudos to go around today. Aramis Ramirez, always a slow starter, had four hits, four RBI and his fourth HR. I didn't think anyone would hit one today into the teeth of a pretty good wind off the lake, but the Pirates' Ryan Doumit hit two and came up in the 9th with the chance to hit a third, which Mike said would have been the "weirdest 3-HR game since Freddie Patek". Instead, he struck out to end the game.

More weirdness: Ryan Dempster gave up hits to the first two hitters -- then retired twelve in a row, making some good defensive plays (one thing we hadn't seen much of from Dempster, throwing one inning at a time as closer, is that he's a very good infielder), and then fell apart in the fifth, giving up three runs and making the game then close at 5-3 before striking out Adam LaRoche with the bases loaded to end the inning and qualify for his third win. The bullpen today gave up three runs in four innings, but it didn't really matter with the 13-run outburst.

I don't know -- and don't right now have time to look up -- the last time the Cubs scored 13 runs in consecutive games. Phil said to me in our seats, "The Cubs scored 13 runs in every game in this series." No, they didn't, I replied, but it took me a couple of minutes to remember that Friday's score was 3-2.

Which led me to say to Mike, "I can remember game scores from 1974, but I can't remember one from two days ago." That's pretty scary.

That's what kind of day it was, in bright April sunshine but chilly temperatures (48 degrees reported in the boxscore is probably a little lower than it really was). It was so cold that some of the 20something women sitting around us got a little loopy. One of them came up from the shade in the corner to tell her friends that she was "moving because it's too cold down there -- but you all can move into the empty seats if you want." They declined.

The Cubs are clicking on all cylinders right now, and I imagine their confidence level will be high going into the brief two-game interlude with the Mets tomorrow. They'll need that -- the Mets are a better team than the Pirates.

Finally, this morning I noted that Carol Slezak had used a term I used in a post 11 days ago -- "Fukudomania" -- and wondered where she might have seen it. Turns out Bruce Miles used it back in February. Credit where credit is due!

Click here for my scorecard

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Good game today.

Quick question, what were the Cubs record after 18 games for the last 10 years or so? This is the best start in a while.. or at least from what I remember.

by Unique on Apr 20, 2008 6:16 PM CDT   0 recs

Cubs' records after 18 games

Here you go, with final records in parantheses:

2007: 7-11 (85-77)
2006: 11-7 (66-96)
2005: 9-9 (79-83)
2004: 12-6 (89-73)
2003: 12-6 (88-74)
2002: 6-12 (67-95)
2001: 12-6 (88-74)
2000: 7-11 (65-97)
1999: 8-10 (67-95)
1998: 11-7 (90-73)

by John Q Freejazz on Apr 20, 2008 10:05 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"Alfonso, don't hurry back!"

How can we miss you if we do so well without you. And get to see
Orange Guy, to boot.

Speaking of which, after today you have to wonder how many
more days Pie has before he’s back in Iowa.

by santo4hof on Apr 20, 2008 6:23 PM CDT   0 recs

in all fairness..

the pitch to pie was outside and low but i see no real reason pie should be in chicago. he needs to be hitting everyday in Iowa. he’s only 22 for goodness sake.

Go Cubbies Go!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Apr 20, 2008 8:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pie

Agreed he should go down. It’s not helping his development sitting on the bench. Johnson is getting it done.

"Hey hey, kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, May 17, 1979

by danimal15 on Apr 20, 2008 8:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pie

Why not let him play everyday in CF with Johnson in left until Sori gets back? Our offense is good enough to carry him for awhile even if he struggles. Plus, Pie’s defense might help us win some games too. I think that’s really being over looked. We’re a vastly better defensive team with him in CF, and as we all know, a good defense can keep us in a lot of games and help our pitching staff. I’ve already seen too many balls Johnson couldn’t get to that Pie would have. I think we’re wasting a good opportunity to see what he can do. Otherwise, send him down so he can play every day.

"The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball"

by Bump Bailey on Apr 20, 2008 9:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pie

really has nothing left to learn in AAA. He’s had over 800 plate appearances there and has proven he can hit AAA pitching. Might as well let him learn from the bench in Chicago. Playing in Iowa is unlikely to help him any.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on Apr 20, 2008 9:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pie

I agree he has nothing left to learn down there. And I’m not averse to putting him into the lineup every day to see if he gets hot. But if Lou is going to sit him on the bench all the time, send him to the minors so at least he gets regular ABs.

"Hey hey, kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, May 17, 1979

by danimal15 on Apr 20, 2008 10:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

But would

regular at bats in the PCL help him more than an occasional start in the majors and extensive work with Gerald Perry? I don’t think they would, actually, but I might be wrong.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on Apr 20, 2008 10:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Orange guy

Ground ball after ground ball, sorry, Please hurry back Soriano. And good bye Felix nice to know you.

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on Apr 20, 2008 9:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Al, I have frequently admitted that it's possible...

...Theriot has a career year. I’ve frequently put the odds of it occurring at about 20%.

I’m still waiting on an admission from the opposing side of the issue that:

1. Gambling on a career year out of a 28-year-old following his rookie season was a boneheaded and irresponsible move by the organization.
2. Even if he has a career year, it’s still unlikely that he’s an asset to the team as a full-time shortstop.

Meanwhile Ronny Cedeno is outhitting Theriot, and Theriot has the lowest Zone Rating of any qualified shortstop in the major leagues. None of it means anything, because it’s not even the end of April.

by cwyers on Apr 20, 2008 6:30 PM CDT   1 recs

theriot

would you rather be seeing cedeno at ss right now? by no means is theriot going to put these numbers up all year but I dont see why he cant hit 290 with an obp of 350ish. Ill take that for a spot that was supposidly going to be are “weakest” position. I also like the energy he brings to the team….he’s aggressive in stealing bases and always seems to be scoring (14 runs scored so far this season). He is 28, but he was set back a few years because he started in the farm system as a switch hitter but that didn’t work out…and his last few years before coming to the majors weren’t too bad.

by cubsmania on Apr 20, 2008 9:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So let me see if I follow the reasoning here.

1. There’s no way he can put up his current numbers.
2. He could hit .290 with an OBP of .350 – which is true in and of itself.
3. If he did, that would be acceptable production.

And if he did hit .290 with an OBP of .350, assuming his career norms in slugging or a bit more, then he would be… a mildly below-average shortstop. If he did that – and he could, but nobody has established that it’s likely.

I just don’t understand why people seem so abjectly hostile to the idea that Theriot’s past performance is our best indicator of his future performance. (And his minor league numbers? Yeah, nothing to brag about.)

by cwyers on Apr 20, 2008 9:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not hostile to that IDEA.

What I’m hostile to is the assumption that any past performance is an absolute, 100% correct predictor of what he will do in the future.

Is it an INDICATOR? Yes, it is. But the problem I have is with the assumption that he could never, ever improve on what he has done to date.

Is that likely? No, it’s not. Is it possible? Yes, it is.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 20, 2008 9:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Loud sustained applause

Thanks Al! In addition, Lou knows Theriot. It is obvious that if Lou wanted a different set of options than Theriot and Cedeno, then he would have had Jim Hendry work on it over the winter. I trust Lou. After all, he has more rings than any of us do.

I want my Macias!

by wombat on Apr 20, 2008 9:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, it's possible that this season he has a breakout or a career year.

And it’s possible that last season was his career year, and he plays absolutely horribly on the season. And there’s the possibility that he’s a slight improvement on last season, which is by far the most likely option.

I’ve never claimed 100% certainty about this. But what I don’t understand is why so many people seem to be personally offended by the conclusion that Ryan Theriot isn’t likely to be any better than what we’ve seen so far. Most likely, he’s simply an adequate bench player sort. Maybe he exceeds that. But if so, it’s not because he’s hitting the weight room – almost all ballplayers do that. And it’s not because he cares more than other ballplayers.

by cwyers on Apr 20, 2008 9:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Now see, I disagree with that.

Can a player improve his performance by better workouts? I would argue that yes, he can. And I would further argue that “caring more” (if that’s even true) might make a difference. Working hard can and does produce results, in any job, not just being a baseball player.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 20, 2008 9:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

To chime in

This is why I don’t debate with cwyers about Theriot. I respect your opinion but we have differing views on the player that will not budge. Get out early Al!

Plus, Theriot is one of “Lou’s Boys” as I’ve heard the term being used quite frequently lately on the radio and TV. He will be our SS for the remainder of the year and I’d even guess into 2009.

by ak123 on Apr 21, 2008 12:07 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

All of the people who play Major League Baseball...

...are amazingly good at baseball, when compared to the rest of us. The talent spread among major leaguers is agonizingly small when taken out of the specialized context. To put it into perspective, there are roughly 55,000,000 American males aged 19-44; something like 1,000 people played in the majors last season, and many of them came from foreign countries. We’re talking about the top 1% here, basically.

The screening process is intensive, and lasts pretty much from the start of high school through possibly college and the minor leagues. You’re scouted, you’re drafted, and you have to then somehow find a way to scrape to the top.

You are not playing for AAA Iowa at the age of 26 unless you are intensely devoted to the prospect of being a major leaguer. If you’re not on the 40-man roster, you’re making $2,150 a month for the months that you’re playing at AAA; you have to be pretty dedicated at that point.

I really don’t see where starting shortstop and popular T-shit sale Ryan Theriot is going to be able to squeeze all that much more out of his talents than old-for-his-level, no-longer-a-prospect Ryan Theriot did just to make it this far; he’s likely gotten as far as he has simply by squeezing every last drop out of what he already has.

You do not get to be a major league ballplayer without working insanely hard for the priveledge. All of these guys are on workout regimens. All of them are trying very, very hard to get where they are. It’s not like Theriot – or anyone else – just coasted into the majors and is finding that if they just apply themselves, they can become so much better.

by cwyers on Apr 21, 2008 3:09 AM CDT to parent up   1 recs

The wild card...

...here is whether a player has room to grow mentally, as opposed to physically. If Theriot or any other major league player (with similar service time) has a “mental revalation” they can show quite a bit of improvement in a short period of time.

This is especially true with hitting, because it is so difficult by nature, and you need a confidant free mind to get the maximum out of your physical skills. The thing is, if a player doesn’t have that “light bulb” moment after a certain amount of time, they probably never will.

Anyway, anything is possible and we have seen players take a while before they come into their own, but whether player A or B will make the mental adjustments required to max out your physical skills, is very very difficult to predict. To me, this is why you have so many physically gifted prospects who can’t hit major league pitching, and other guys without the physical skills, become good hitters.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 21, 2008 9:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well said.

Is Theriot that kind of player? We don’t know yet; there’s too small a sample size this year. Is he going to hit .340? Probably not.

But I think what I’ve seen of him so far suggests that his numbers in 2008 will be better than they were in 2007.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 21, 2008 9:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think anyone says it's a 100% predictor.

Think of it this way – it is possible that the Cub with the highest OPS at the end of the season will be Henry Blanco. It’s possible. It’s just not likely. I say it’s not likely because of his past performance.

Who would have predicted last year that the Cub with the highest OPS would be D-Ward? It was possible and it happened, but no one was going to predict it. And even though it happened, Lou knew better than to bank on Ward continuing at that level of production and giving him regular playing time.

The argument on Theriot is the same – he’s not a good bet to be productive against right-handed pitching.

by DGU on Apr 20, 2008 10:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

All of this may very well be true.

All I’m asking is that we watch what happens and not make preassumptions which could be incorrect.

If Cedeno does outhit Theriot and stops making boneheaded plays, he’s a much better choice for starting SS.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 20, 2008 9:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

We make conclusions about baseball players all the time.

And the best tools we have at our disposal are simply what that player has done in the past, as well as how other players like him have performed in the future.

I do my absolute best to be fair and go to the conclusions the data takes me to, in spite of my personal feelings about a ballplayer. (You’d have to spend a long time on BCB and pay an awful lot of attention to me to know that my favorite Cub of all time is Mark Prior.)

The data so far on the season (at least, as of two days ago, which is the last time I did a thorough look at the defensive stats) says that Aramis Ramirez has been the least valuable member of the team so far. I don’t worry about it, because I know that the data on the season so far is as close to meaningless as it can be. Our preassumptions in this case – and really in all cases – are more valuable to us as information that what has happened on the field.

I don’t go out of my way to discover proofs about Ryan Theriot; I only write about him as much as I do because it seems to be so controversial.

by cwyers on Apr 20, 2008 9:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Theriot has 68 AB

Ramirez has 69 and Lee has 71. So Theriot isn’t hitting so well on limited AB’s or small sample size. When you factor in the AB’s and everything he’s the second best average hitter on the team. I know he won’t stay that good, but I think Theriot should be given the chance by Cubs fans until he shows he’s gonna hit like last year again.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 20, 2008 11:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I mean Lee has 77 AB

by cubsfan25 on Apr 21, 2008 12:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

One item I do remember

from Bill James’ earliest “Abstracts,” is that his research found the ‘average’ major leaguer will have his career years at 27-28. It’s very possible this might be the case for Theriot.

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Apr 20, 2008 9:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Peak is generally 27-29 years of age.

Certain skills progress differently – walk rate doesn’t seem to peak, it just continues to increase, while speed skills tend to start declining earlier. Power peaks later than other skills.

But during the 27-29 years the slope is pretty much flat – it’s where you expect the most consistancy out of a player’s performance level.

That’s not an iron law, and I’ve never claimed that it is. But there’s no reason, based upon his past performance, to EXPECT an improvement out of him. It’s an outlier of a posibility.

by cwyers on Apr 20, 2008 9:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And I would further agree..

... that if Theriot suddenly puts up a .800 OPS (which is probably about as high as he could get), it would likely be seen, when his career is over, as a fluke year.

We’d take it, wouldn’t we?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 20, 2008 9:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yes but why would we risk it?

Technically, anything is that is not defined specifically by man (like 1 never equals 2, by definition) is possible. even things that seem impossible could be explained by someone saying it was an act of god. We can not disprove it. But we have to conclude things based on what’s more probable, and we conclude that based on what we know from experience.

We know that Theriot has never been especially spectacular at any level of professional play. We know that he is 28, thus less likely to improve greatly. We know he was terrible at the major league level last year. We know his glove isn’t going to make up for a bad offense.

It’s just not logically smart to play a player that has a very improbable chance to play well and is even less likely to play exceedingly well. Theriot is more like a high risk/low reward player than a high risk/high reward player that it is okay to gamble on.

by ecbc on Apr 21, 2008 4:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Derrek Lee

had his peek year at age 29-32 currently. The guy has gone from a 270-280s hitter, to a 300 plus hitter and has improved alot at the plate. I’m not saying Theriot and Lee can be compared at all. But the point is some players don’t even peak until the age of 29 or 30.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 20, 2008 11:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Cwyers did acknowlege that

but we have to use that as our basis because it is most probable. Lee was still a good offensive player even before he reached his peak, so we could easily let him play and reach a peak. Theriot is bad so we can’t just wait and hope he significantly improves when it’s most likely he will not. We can’t know anything for sure; we can only base conclusions on what is most probable.

by ecbc on Apr 21, 2008 4:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Loud Sustained Applause...

(man, I hate that phrase!) :)

But I completely agree with you. Al’s point in the diary is completely correct – it is certainly possible to improve. BUT, cwyers made an equally valid counterpoint in this thread (and one that continues to be ignored apparently) – that, while it is certainly possible for dramatic improvement from Theriot, it is unlikely and it was probably not wise to gamble on it working out.

I hope Theriot continues to do well. But I’d have to say that the odds are against him doing so, and that the likelihood of him having a career year this year weren’t worth the probability that he’d be below-average again. Now, hindsight is always 20/20, so what Theriot actually does will influence people’s opinion. But going into the season, it seems unreasonable to argue that Theriot was likely to have a big jump in outcomes.

I think it’s a matter of optimism versus logic here. The optimists are saying “it’s possible.” The other side is saying “it’s possible but not likely.” Those two arguments are not mutually exclusive. Where the debate gets interesting is when the optimists say “it’s fine to leave him as a regular and give him a chance, because he MIGHT improve,” but the other side says “it is a bad idea, because he’s not LIKELY to improve, and right now he’s a below-average player.”

It seems like the optimists are still discussing the first debate, while cwyers is discussing the second debate.

by SouthernCub on Apr 21, 2008 9:41 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Whoops...

i meant for this post as a response to ecbc’s other post!

by SouthernCub on Apr 21, 2008 9:41 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Id like

to see more team stats, seeing as i can only look up individual standings right now.

If anyone can point me in the right direction i would be very greatful. I believe the cubs are leading in runs/hits/and obp but i may be wrong.

My 08 Cubs record 4-0
Updated April 19th

by Rudey on Apr 20, 2008 6:31 PM CDT   0 recs

On MLB.com, they have sortable team stats

For the record, Cubs are:

2nd in OBP (.366, behind Red Sox at .367)
3rd in AVG (.282, Angels at .295)
2nd in Runs (111, D-Backs at 112)
3rd in Hits (185, Red Sox at 201)
6th in HR’s (22, Phillies at 27)

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Apr 20, 2008 6:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I should add

I don’t know if that info includes today’s games or not. But I imagine if it doesn’t, than the Cubs would place higher on several lists.

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Apr 20, 2008 6:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes it does include the day's games...

...I checked twice today, and it was updated.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Apr 20, 2008 7:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think anyone can claim "Fukudomania"

It seems like a pretty simple turn of a phrase, given his name. I’d say we can give Carol a pass on this one.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Apr 20, 2008 6:32 PM CDT   0 recs

still early, of course,

but I believe that a Cubs win tomorrow combined with a D-backs loss would put CHN in a tie for the best record in all of baseball.

Weird, huh?

by HereComesASpecialBoy on Apr 20, 2008 6:48 PM CDT   0 recs

Nice start for the team

...but it’s still early and the Cubs haven’t play too many really good teams. We should get a better view of how strong they are after playing the Mets twice and the Rockies twice.

by Butchoh31 on Apr 20, 2008 6:53 PM CDT   0 recs

Agreed

The Cubs are 6-0 vs. Pittsburgh. 6-6 vs. everyone else.

"Hey hey, kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, May 17, 1979

by danimal15 on Apr 20, 2008 8:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And?

Pittsburgh is 7-5 against everyone else.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 20, 2008 9:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

good point

"Hey hey, kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, May 17, 1979

by danimal15 on Apr 20, 2008 10:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Gotta be pleased....

Although I’d like to see a starter or two pitch into the 8th inning. Even the 7th. The Bullpen has been fabulous but the less we can depend on them. Dempster should be allowed to recover from “one bad inning”. Maybe he was gassed. But still I’d be comfortable knowing that someone other than Z can go all the way if possible.

"I can't be held responsible for what I personally tell my goons to do...."- C. Montgomery Burns

by yahoodi on Apr 20, 2008 6:58 PM CDT   0 recs

indeed

I think it’s only a matter of time before Z posts a CG!

"Hey hey, kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, May 17, 1979

by danimal15 on Apr 20, 2008 8:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope so!

I’d like to see these starters going deeper really soon.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 20, 2008 9:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

could we actually be beating the team

we should beat…. Yep, it sure seems like it….Woooot!

"I'm not normally a religious man, but... if you're up there, save me, Superman!"
Homer Simpson

by blueivy on Apr 20, 2008 7:06 PM CDT   0 recs

Will tomorrow night's game....

...be your 2000th game, Al? Or am I just reading your scorecard wrong?

That’s amazing that you know that exact number of games you’ve attended.

by Chico Walker on Apr 20, 2008 7:12 PM CDT   0 recs

Yeah, I was going to ask the same thing.

Looks like you’ve been to 1866 games @ Wrigley, and 1999 overall?

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Apr 20, 2008 7:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's incredible

Al, I’m surprised you’re not making a bigger deal out of it. After all, Baseball is a game of numbers and records. That’s quite a stat you’ve got for yourself.

by cubsonWGN4ever on Apr 21, 2008 1:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You'll see more about this later today.

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 21, 2008 4:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Theriot

Why all the talk about Theriot having a career year? If he does, all the better, but he doesn’t have to. This is not a “so goes Theriot, so go the Cubs” situation at all. If he can get at a high rate, steal some bases in the right situations, and play a solid defensive shortstop, I’m cool with that. I like guys who may not be the most talented, but bust their tail on the field and outplay guys with more talent because they work harder. Theriot is that guy. Of course he is not going to hit .340, but the point is, he is more than justifying the playing time he is getting with his performance. He started slow, but lately has been a riot (sorry)!!

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Apr 20, 2008 7:12 PM CDT   0 recs

Why does everyone think

Theriot can play a solid defensive shortstop?

by DGU on Apr 20, 2008 10:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Why not?

I’m not saying he’s Ozzie Smith, or even Shawon Dunston, I’m saying he gets the job done. Who would you prefer play shortstop everday?

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Apr 20, 2008 11:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"Everyday", that is.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Apr 20, 2008 11:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess to my eyes

and I freely admit my eyes are not trained for this sort of thing, he doesn’t appear to get the job done. He appears to miss balls that seem to me like other SSs would get. Now, like most human beings, I’m thoroughly biased, so I really am asking the rest of this board what they see when they watch Theriot play SS.

As for everyday, I want someone not on roster, but I think as long as we’re playing both against LHP, Cedeno should be at SS because his range is better.

by DGU on Apr 21, 2008 5:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Because I don't think the evidence supports it...

cwyers would be the person to check with on this, but I think Theriot lacks the range (especially to his right) to be a solid defensive shortstop. Theriot may not make mistakes on the balls he can make a play on, but I think that the universe of plays he can make is more limited than the universe of plays that a good shortstop can make. Range is something that is not easily observed by the naked eye, and may be why Theriot appears to play a decent shortstop.

Your second question is more interesting. It may be that Theriot is the best of a bad group of options now. I don’t know that we have anyone that would be necessarily better. Cedeno certainly has more range and a better arm, but is more susceptible to the mental mistake. But I think the argument that those who have a distate for Theriot as an everyday shortstop would make is that the Cubs should have made upgrading the SS position a bigger priority this offseason.

by SouthernCub on Apr 21, 2008 9:48 AM CDT to parent up   1 recs

Theriot's right around league average at short defensively.

At least according to last year’s various Zone Rating systems.

I don’t think that it’s controversial to say that Theriot’s tools defensively match up better at second base – his big weaknesses are his arm and his range, which says “second baseman” to me. But he has good hands and a good release, so he generally is able to make plays on the balls within his range.

Put it this way. last year, Theriot made plays on .858 of the balls that were assigned to his zone of responsibility, according to BIS ZR. Troy Tulowitzki made plays on .861 of balls in zone. You’re really splitting hairs on that difference.

But if we look at Out Of Zone plays – plays where the shortstop is able to get to a ball outside of the assigned zone – Theriot’s defense doesn’t look as good. The average shortstop makes 36 OOZ plays, given Theriot’s number of in-zone chances. (We’re estimating opportunities here, which isn’t the most comforting thing to do, but it’s the best measure we have.) Tulo would make an estimated 44-45 plays, based on Theriot’s chances. Theriot made 28. (Meanwhile, just because Adam Everett is amazing: Everett makes an estimated 54 plays per season based upon Theriot’s chances.)

Theriot is very good at making plays on balls he gets to; his in-zone percentage is right up there with the best shortstops in baseball. He just isn’t very good at getting to baseballs.

I know that we’re using estimates here, and that OOZ chances aren’t as equally distributed as I’m making it sound here. But we’re talking about a not insubstantial number of plays here – and remember that Theriot’s opportunites were for a half-season of shortstop. (Tulo made 87 OOZ plays last season.)

He’s certainly not a defensive liability, but it’s hard to argue that he’s enough of a defensive asset to offset the offensive liability that he is likely to present.

by cwyers on Apr 21, 2008 12:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree...

...Theriot seems very dependable on the routine play, and that is important to be dependable. He is not a top flight defensive SS by any means, but as always, you can live with him depending on what the rest of the team is doing.

One thing that does bother me about him, is the way he “double clutches” on a lot of his throws. I think it’s only a matter of time before this starts to cost him on some of the tougher plays when you have to hurry.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 21, 2008 12:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Would love to see you all continue your argument

On my fanpost, here.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 12:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

NHK program of the game just started in HD

Looks like beautiful day and Cubs got great sweep, winning against Bucs 9 games in a row – congrats.
Dome inside the dugout is shown frequently by NHK’s “Domecamera”, and he looks very relaxed.
I will record this in any way and watch later, maybe tonight.

I'm bleeding Dragons Blue.

by dragonsfanatic on Apr 20, 2008 7:24 PM CDT   0 recs

Domecamera?

There’s a media camera directed just on Kosuke the entire game?

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Apr 20, 2008 7:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

NHK

NHK always brings in their own HD camera to go after Japanese players (as they did in Seattle, NY and Boston), and mix it with local station’s picture.
NHK is public broadcating and removing all the commercials on local station’s program.

I'm bleeding Dragons Blue.

by dragonsfanatic on Apr 20, 2008 7:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's a link to NHK

in English – here you go