Cedeno vs Theriot

by californiachicagoan on Apr 21, 2008 1:40 PM CDT Comment 43 comments

I've seen a lot of dicussion thrown around about our shortstops, and I had a number of thoughts on the situation. Therefore, I thought I would try and do a comprehensive comparison to get all the points out there for our consideration.

Cedeno's Hitting:

2005 - 80ABs .300/.356/.375
2006 - 534ABs .245/.271/.339
2007 - 74ABs .203/.231/.392
2008 - 20ABs .350/.435/.450
Career - 708ABs .250/.282/.352

Cedeno put up decent numbers in his first taste of the bigs in 05, followed by a bad full season in 06. In 07 he went from bad to worse in limited ABs. He is having a strong 08, with the caveat that he is getting to face lefties (16PAs) much more than righties (7PAs). The light may have turned on for him. At the very least he is showing some platoon ability. The likelihood of regression is high, considering he has never been close to this level in any previous year.

Theriot's Hitting:

2005 - 13ABs .154/.214/.231
2006 - 134ABs .328/.412/.522
2007 - 537ABs .266/.326/.346
2008 - 68ABs .338/.408/.485
Career - 752ABs .282/.347/.388

Theriot put up poor numbers in his first taste of the bigs in 05, but followed that up by having a great quarter season in 06. In his first full season in 07 he went from great to bad. He is having a strong 08 while facing both righties and lefties. Theriot may have recaptured his 06 production. There is a chance of regression as his previous season and career averages are much lower, on the other hand he has achieved these sorts of numbers before for a quarter season.

My Opinion: Ryan with the solid edge. Ryan's done this well before, Ronny hasn't. Ryan is facing all pitchers, Ronny is getting the benefit of hitting a lot of lefties. Ryan's career numbers are better than Ronny's. One plus for Ronny is he is 3+ years younger than Ryan. On the other hand Ronny has never had a 134AB strecth like Ryan's 06. I think it is clear that Ryan is the better option as a hitter, with the smaller likely regression. Ronny may be best used as a platoonmate for now, with the possibility that he could improve to an everyday player eventually.

Cedeno's baserunning: 12 SB, 9 CS, 57% success rate.

Theriot's baserunning: 45 SB, 9 CS, 83% success rate.

My opinion: Ryan blows Ronny away in this catagory. According to run expectations, a 74% success rate is the break even point. A 83% success rate is a solid positive while a 57% success rate is a big net negative. Anecdotally, I find Ryan to be a solid baserunner in general, while Ronny has had a handful of gaffes on the base paths.

Cedeno's fielding: .959 FPCT, 4.01 RF, .839 ZR 656 TC as SS (.972, 5.04, .909 108 2B)

Theriot's fielding: .979 FPCT, 3.99 RF, .840 ZR 468 TC as SS (.988 4.21 .871 254 2B)

My opinion: I have only a passing knowledge of fielding stats, so take this with a grain of salt. The career numbers listed above seem to have the two even at SS, but has Ronny superior at 2B. My own judgement is that Ronny has superior range, but Ryan is more reliable on routine plays. Ronny has a superior arm, but Ryan has better accuracy. The first results in both giving up more singles than they should for different reasons. The second has Ronny throwing it away and giving up doubles, while Ryan is not getting it there in time and giving up singles. Plus, Ryan seems to know when to put the ball in his pocket more than Ronny. I understand that the general opinion of statisticians is that Ronny is the superior SS, but I think they are pretty even.

Summary: I think Theriot should be the everyday SS. I think Cedeno can be an asset as a platoonmate for Fontenot at 2B for now, but when Soriano comes back, DeRosa should be the everyday 2B. As for picking up someone, SS does seem to be our weakest position and an upgrade there would benefit the team.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Thanks for this post. It’s an interesting topic.

For all interested, you can debate who, if anyone, should be sought after instead of Cedeniot. Or Thedeno. Anyway, that debate can be found here.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 1:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This must be "double fanpost" Monday.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 21, 2008 1:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That 1918 Cubs throwing the series is coming right up.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Apr 21, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, just wanted to keep the two very different arguments seperate.

My fanpost is mostly about Cedeno/Theriot combo vs. anyone else.

This fanpost is about Cedeno vs. Theriot.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, but...

... it still involves a debate between the two that could have been folded into your post.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 21, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Certainly, I'd defer to you as the blog-meister...

but there seems to be a TON of information in this post. I dunno, I saw some great value in it being a seperate fanpost.

Is there some sort of hosting issue we should be aware of before posting “flippant” fanposts? Or, is the selectivity mainly just an issue of keeping clutter down.

Again, not trying to be confrontational, just trying to understand the ropes ‘round here.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, second sentence, second paragraph should have a ?, not a .

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your post wasn't "flippant".

Kind of a general rule… let’s see if we can keep only one post per topic per day. That’ll keep more of them on the front page. Deal?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 21, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, that's a good guideline.

Wasn’t saying either of our posts were flippant. Just wanted to understand the logic for discouraging fanposts, and for what reasons we were discouraged to post.

Thanks.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like cedeno

but tnheriot has been swinging better lately

"Hey Chicago what do you say the Cubs are gonna win today"

by fischisgod on Apr 21, 2008 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This could have been posted...

... as a comment to the Theriot/Cedeno thread that’s only four posts below this one.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 21, 2008 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Can I take option 3?...

That neither is a suitable everyday SS (for varying reasons)? Furthermore, that as long as he’s stuck with both, he should play the hot hand, or as needed.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 21, 2008 2:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You can take that option!

Want to come join this discussion and rattle off who you’d like to see at SS for us?

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, this post is a perfect example of why...

... having two fanposts on essentially the same topic is a problem.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 21, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK OK, point taken

That californiachicagoan, what a dummy.

Just kidding, of course. Man, I need that sarcastic font again.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No..

This debate comes up about once a week, so I’m going to just sit this one out.

Personally though, I honestly would hope that we chose to either bring Furcal into the fold, grab Orlando Cabrera, or try and pry Peralta away from the Indians this off-season. Just my opinion.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 21, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The case for Furcal was made over yonder.

I gotta say, I liked it.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 21, 2008 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd really like to see more analysis

on the defense from people who know more about either scouting defense or reading the stats on it. To my untrained eye it looks like Theriot has minimal range at SS and he lets a lot of singles through.

I’d also suggest that the hitting comp above is inadequate, missing minor league stats. An analysis of their minor league stats, I believe, would show that Theriot is a lot more likely to regress than Cedeno.

by DGU on Apr 21, 2008 2:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll repost this from yesterday's postgame thread:

Theriot’s right around league average at short defensively. At least according to last year’s various Zone Rating systems.

I don’t think that it’s controversial to say that Theriot’s tools defensively match up better at second base – his big weaknesses are his arm and his range, which says "second baseman" to me. But he has good hands and a good release, so he generally is able to make plays on the balls within his range.

Put it this way. last year, Theriot made plays on .858 of the balls that were assigned to his zone of responsibility, according to BIS ZR. Troy Tulowitzki made plays on .861 of balls in zone. You’re really splitting hairs on that difference.

But if we look at Out Of Zone plays – plays where the shortstop is able to get to a ball outside of the assigned zone – Theriot’s defense doesn’t look as good. The average shortstop makes 36 OOZ plays, given Theriot’s number of in-zone chances. (We’re estimating opportunities here, which isn’t the most comforting thing to do, but it’s the best measure we have.) Tulo would make an estimated 44-45 plays, based on Theriot’s chances. Theriot made 28. (Meanwhile, just because Adam Everett is amazing: Everett makes an estimated 54 plays per season based upon Theriot’s chances.)

Theriot is very good at making plays on balls he gets to; his in-zone percentage is right up there with the best shortstops in baseball. He just isn’t very good at getting to baseballs.

I know that we’re using estimates here, and that OOZ chances aren’t as equally distributed as I’m making it sound here. But we’re talking about a not insubstantial number of plays here – and remember that Theriot’s opportunites were for a half-season of shortstop. (Tulo made 87 OOZ plays last season.)

He’s certainly not a defensive liability, but it’s hard to argue that he’s enough of a defensive asset to offset the offensive liability that he is likely to present.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 21, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

This is the most reasoned argument...

... I’ve seen about Theriot’s admitted defensive liabilities. If he can hit, say, 30 average points and 50 on-base points higher than last year, he’d be at least average, right?

There are also hints, at least, that maybe Ronny Cedeno is actually becoming a useful major league player. If this is the case, the Cubs may not need to go outside the organization for an actual good shortstop.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 22, 2008 4:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, from either player

The Cubs need to get above average production from at least one aspect of the position: the glove or the bat. Judging from both players past, it does not seem that one could expect either player to suddenly become a defensive wizard. Both players will give it 100%, but that will not make up for their shortcomings.

So, one of these guys is going to have to keep hitting near the .300 mark for the season, to justify the lack of defense at the position.

The major problem at this position, which I’ve written about before: we don’t have a single slick fielding glove for the middle infield on our entire roster. There is no starting SS or 2B on our team who can be considered a defensive asset. Nor, do we have a late inning defensive replacement.
If we don’t add a real great glove during the course of the season, it could cost us in the late innings of close ballgames.

Cubs 2008 (13-6)
Home (9-4) | Road (4-2) | 1-Run Games (3-2) | Extra Innings (3-1)
Updated on April 22, 2008

by SackMan on Apr 22, 2008 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Near .300??

Come on, man. Isn’t that expectation a wee bit high?

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on Apr 22, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you very much

Where do you see Cedeno falling, given the same kind of analysis? Or is that in yesterday’s post, too?

by DGU on Apr 21, 2008 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

problems with your analysis:

Hitting: you’re giving way too much credit to the partial years of both players. 05’,07, and ‘08 might as well be discounted for Cedeno and ‘05,’06 and ‘08 for Theriot. Those sample sizes are too small, and were mixed in with sporadic playing time, which does seem to hurt most players’ production.

Thus we have ‘06 for cedeno and ‘07 for Theriot. Both undeniably bad and cedeno’s… well words can’t describe. However, one year of experience isn’t even a very good size to truly predict a young player’s skill.

And so we go to their years of minor league number’s, where Ronny has a very clear edge. And this has a larger sample size of more recent at bats for Ronny and also a large sample size for Cedeno. We see that Cedeno has produced much better at a younger age, thus has more potential.

Also we have to account for other factors, and the primary one is age. Cedeno was 23 when he put up his god-awful numbers(when Theriot was in AA); Theriot was 27 when he put up his terrible numbers. That is a huge difference. Ronny is only 25 this season and is much more likely to have improved over his age 23 season and to improve in the future. Theriot is 28 this season, only one year removed from his terrible year.
We can also possibly argue that Ronny was on a worse team, and that affected his stats. I don’t know if I believe this completely, but the fact certainly doesn’t help Theriot.

Stealing: Cedeno sample size WAY too small.

Defense: I think at worst they are equal. I think Cedeno has a chance to improve because many of his gaffes, fielding and baserunning, appear to be more mental problems than the lack of above average skill Theriot has (though Cedeno still has to prove he isn’t a headcase anymore). Anyway, as Cwyers said, Theriot’s glove isn;t likely going to make up for his offense.

Theriot has a much lower ceiling and probably only a slightly higher floor. I would say it’s definitely worth the risk to try a matured Cedeno out. I really want to stress that his ‘06 season was at age 23.

by ecbc on Apr 21, 2008 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Right On

You nailed it, man. The age difference is huge. HUGE!

I’m a big fan of Baseball Prospectus, and their PECOTA system in particular. I was surprised to see that Ronny projected better than any of the young infielders. The age is a big reason why.

by MikeIowa on Apr 21, 2008 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theriot vs Eckstein

I’m not really into digging up the kinda stats that cwyer posted, but this would definetly be a great comparison. If Eckstein was ss with 2 world series winners, and if his defensive stats were equal to Theriots, then I think the “lets dump Theriot for x reason” should find another rant. If you show me that he more than marginally worse than Eck, I’ll give in to the theories.
Cedeno is a guy with athletic talent, but not quite the head to match. Theriot is a smarter ballplayer which put him in front of Ronny WOO WOO Cedeno.

by GHCF2314 on Apr 21, 2008 5:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

ok...

look at their career full season numbers for offense and note Eckstein has (thus far) produced on a consistent level while Theriot has not produced in his most consistent level in the majors (2007). Now look at their minor league numbers, taking into account age and level, of course. These stats are easy to dig up, and Eckstein wins. Eckstein is now officially marginally better, even if he is worse than Theriot with the glove, which I have no idea if he is or not. I must ask why you didn’t want to compare Eckstein and Theriot’s offense. But anyway, hopefully you can see that Eckstein is probably better than Theriot, even if they are both scrappy.

by ecbc on Apr 21, 2008 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 out RBI single vs. NYM

Count that in favor of Cedeno!
Talk about clutch!

by OKC_Hornet2006 on Apr 21, 2008 8:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Theriot

Theriot is a hard-nosed overachiever. What’s wrong with that? My answer is nothing. I think it’s a badge of honor to lump him in the same category as a David Eckstein and a Craig Counsell. Both Eckstein and Counsell proved integral members of two World Series championship teams each.

I can live with Theriot’s so-so defense.

by MDBNIU on Apr 21, 2008 10:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I like Theriot. I like hard-nosed. But . . . in the end, I prefer actual production to style points.

Eckstein, Counsell et. al. are overloved and overrated.

by MikeIowa on Apr 21, 2008 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a stupid comparison.

Let’s take a look at their Age 27 seasons.

Craig Counsell, 2B – 98 OPS+, 5 defensive runs
David Eckstein, SS – 101 OPS, 9 defensive runs
Ryan Theriot, SS/2B – 72 OPS, +3 defensive runs

Counsell and Eckstein are solid players who are overrated. If Ryan Theriot was half as good as Counsell or Eckstein then this wouldn’t even be an issue. It’s really unfair to Counsell and Eckstein to compare them.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 21, 2008 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My love-letter to Cedeno

One last “P.S.” to my love-letter to Cedeno—he has had some outstanding at-bats in the last couple of days. I have recently been forced to follow the games on gamecast the last few days. One benefit of that is that you have a real feel for pitch counts. Ronny has had a couple of awesome at bats in that regard, with very good results. I think that’s a really good sign. Lou sees it. Don’t be surprised if you see a LOT of Ronny this year. And don’t be surprised if you fall in love with him, too.

by MikeIowa on Apr 21, 2008 10:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I was refering to...

... the defensive numbers of Eck vs Theriot, because that was what cwyer was comparing the 2. Is Eck over rated, maybe, he has been let go by two teams already. My point is that you can win with Theriot ss.
By the way, I want to clarify my nickname for Cedeno. Its Ronny woo did you just make an unbelievable play! woo did you just make a bonehead play Cedeno.

by GHCF2314 on Apr 21, 2008 10:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

David Eckstein is a much better player.

See above. Ryan Theriot is a worse ballplayer than David Eckstein.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 21, 2008 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Statistically, yes.

Again, I would argue that Theriot (as does Eckstein) adds value to a baseball team that cannot be measured on a stat sheet. And yes, there ARE some things that cannot be measured.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 22, 2008 4:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein has two rings...

Cubs 2008 (13-6)
Home (9-4) | Road (4-2) | 1-Run Games (3-2) | Extra Innings (3-1)
Updated on April 22, 2008

by SackMan on Apr 22, 2008 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and a WS MVP

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Apr 22, 2008 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That he stole from Rolen

VORPy

by VS on Apr 22, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein vs Rolen

2006 WS

Eckstien

Rolen
8-19
3 doubles
1 homer
2 rbis

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Apr 22, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they were close

sorry i lost the stats, dont care to do it again.
Eck only really had 1 more RBI

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Apr 22, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea, Rolen was better all across the board

The thing that really bothered me was that the writers once again showed their obsession with crappy, undersized white players. It’s like they see themselves in Eckstein (small, pasty, limited athletic ability), which makes them root for him that much more.

VORPy

by VS on Apr 22, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats unfair

Eckstein had a very good 2002, but hasn’t played that good in most years of his career. For example if you compare Theriot to Eckstein 03 or 04 season I bet the numbers are alot closer. Plus were only going off one year with Theriot. If come August Theriot doesn’t look like he has improved as a hitter then we can maybe label him this or that. But until then Cwyers you should give the guy a break. All the stats and information your looking at are mostly going off one season. Yeah Yeah I know he’s 28, but thats basically the Cubs fault for making him a switch hitter and wasting 3 years of his career. Plus many many hitters have improved after the age of 28.

The fact that Eckstein is a career 286/351/713 hitter is a fair to compare him to Theriot. Especially when Theriot is a 282/347/736 hitter so far in his career. As for Theriot vs Cedeno, Theriot should keep starting until he gives us a reason to bench him. If Theriot struggles, and Cedeno keeps hitting then we can make the switch. But until then we should just give things how they are.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 22, 2008 2:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Until Theriot starts to hit poorly, we should just keep things how we are. If Cedeno can keep hitting welll, and take Theriot job more power to him. But right now Theriot deserves to start and so far this season is proving a lot of people wrong. Who labeled him a bad hitter after one fullseason in the ML.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 22, 2008 3:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs