20 game analysis...beyond the hot start!

It is the 20-game mark, 12% into the season and a chance to take peek as the team is in the land of the 14,000 peaks. 

At 14-6 this is the hottest April start since 1975 where they were also 14-6, (they finished 16-8 for April, .666-ball). The team made up of Cub lore memories; Bill Madlock, Manny Trillo, Jose Cardinal, Jerry Morales, Rick Monday and Andre Thorton, with the rotation comprised of The Whale, Rick Rueschel, Bill Bonham, Steve Stone, Ray Burris and Geoff Zahn; continued to compete although falling back to one-game under .500 in May, and by June 2nd fell under .500, finishing a disappointing 75-87.

Not to be outdone the 1969 team also started out 14-6, finishing better than 1975 with a 16-7 record (.696 ball) and continuing that pace finishing May at 32-16. Most of us know that 1969 ended but the team still finished 92-70 and in today's world probably still in the playoffs. Ironically 1970 the Cubs also sprinted out with a 13-5 start (.720 ball). Cubs finished 84-78.

Now the research also indicates that in 1985 the Cubs also sprinted out with a 12-6 start (.666), finished May 27-17 and on August 13th fell below .500 finishing the season 77-84.

As for the division winning seasons of 1984 (12-8), 1989 (12-11),  1998  (14-13), 2003  (15-12),  2004 (13-9),  and of course last year  2007 they  were 10-14.

So hot starts are not always indicative of winning the division or world series. But then again in 1906 they were 10-6 (.625), 1907 (13-2), 1908 (8-3), 1918 (6-3), 1929 (7-5), 1932 (11-3), 1935 (8-5), 1938 (8-4), 1945 (7-4) are all the years the Cubs were in the World Series and there is one common denominator...can you guess, they were all over .500!

This was all done for proper perspective of the importance of a good start that places the team in a good position and indication that the team right now is going to be competitive. But that is only the start.

Here are some more perspective facts: They played a lot of game in Wrigley going 10-4, (one short road trip 4-2). They are playing well at home which is good. We will see how this 5-game trip will treat them. They have played three contenders, lost two series (1-2 apiece) to Milwaukee & Phil, and beat the Mets 2-0 or  (4-4). Thus they have beat up on the Pirates Astros and Reds, 10-2, that is the anomaly where baseball usually says .500 against like teams but usually .600 or .650 against weaker teams, .833 is not normal.

That all said how are the Cubs winning, in short hitting and use of their bullpen. Their OBP is fluctuating between 1st and 2nd with Arizona as is their batting average and runs scored. They are 6-3 in games decided with 2 runs or less, (3-2 in one-run games), 3-1 in extra inning games leaving them 3-2 in 9-inning games. They are 5-3 in blow out games (5 + runs or more).

Their bullpen is still not set with Eyre on the DL, Wuertz and Howry somewhat not performing at their expected levels and yet, Lieber, Hart, Marshall, Marmol and Wood have kept it together well. Starting pitching has also not been up to expectations with Zambrano and Dempster doing well, but Hill and Lilly have been shaky with Marquis being Marquis.

What has generated the offense has been DOME & DLEE leading, Ramirez being RAMI, and then OBP with DeRosa, Johnson, Soto, Cedeno, Theriot and Blanco providing opportunities. With Soriano sidelined this has allowed Piniella to install a traditional front of the order lineup with OBP and speed making the Cubs scoring explode.

Now what does this foretell?  The  team will eventually have to adjust with Soriano coming back into the lineup and being inserted into the middle someplace. When the adjustment is completed this will be a formidable lineup if Theriot, Cedeno, Johnson and Pie continue their contributions.

But it also tells me that barring a serious injury to the everyday core, the focus on any mid-season acquisition will be in the valuable starting rotation. Cubs will have the means to deal with a flush farm resource of (Murton, Patterson, & Colvin plus the valuable stockpile pitchers of Gallagher, Veal, Mateo, Cotts, Holliman, & Ceda) that could unearth a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Nothing assured but this is how you go from good start to playoff season. 

So we will look back at 30-game and see how the hot start has taken itself towards the magical 25% of the season mark at 40 games near Memorial Day.