Perspective

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 3:49 PM CDT in Recaps Comment 91 comments

The Cubs were shut out by the Nationals 2-0 this afternoon -- the first time they have been shut out this year.

That took 25 games. For perspective, here's a list of the first game in which the Cubs were shut out in the twelve seasons before 2008:

2007: game 11
2006: game 23
2005: game 7
2004: game 19
2003: game 21
2002: game 21
2001: game 23
2000: game 27
1999: game 17
1998: game 13
1997: game 6
1996: game 23

So in all but one season -- and that happened to be a pretty bad year, actually, 2000 -- the Cubs were shut out earlier than the 25 games it took in 2008. This offense is pretty good -- it just got shut down today.

This was posted by BCB reader cwyers in the comments in the overflow thread, and in case you haven't seen that, and even if you have, it bears repeating:

The spread in talent between major league ballclubs is pretty small when you take a step back and look at it from a distance; the Nationals only look like a really bad ballclub when you compare them to other major league teams. And even then, we tend to exaggerate the difference in quality between two teams.

Sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose. The good teams tend to win more and the bad teams tend to lose more, but that’s over a 162 game season. In ONE game, any team in the majors, even the Giants, has enough talent to win.

It’s not a problem about "being in their heads," or being tired, or being mentally weak, or whatever character defects the armchair shrinks like to ascribe to sheer random chance. This happens, and it happens all the time. The difference between the best and worst record in baseball last season was only sixty games of 162.

What you do is you tip your cap to the other team, and you move on to play the next game.

Couldn't have said it better, although I will quibble a bit with one assertion that Colin made: I think the Cubs are tired after playing 13 games in three time zones over the last 13 days. Four different times in that 13-day stretch, they played a night game after a day game, and that can really screw up your body clock, especially considering that the first seven games of this season were all day games, and that's after playing a month of day games in Arizona (there was one split-squad night game during spring training).

(Also, wasn't the difference between best and worst in 2007 thirty games, not sixty?)

This isn't to offer excuses, and you might say, "How can they be tired after not even one month?" But given the cross-country travel of this bizarre "if it's Wednesday, this must be Denver" road trip, switching game times and time zones, I can see how the Cubs would have come out a little bit flat this afternoon.

So, give credit to John Lannan, who kept the Cubs off balance all day, and to Jon Rauch, who had Daryle Ward swinging at a pitch to end the game as if Ward were saying, "Enough of this game, let's go home." The Cubs had two big chances to chase Lannan and put the game away -- in the fifth when they caught a break on Nick Johnson's error and loaded the bases with one out, only to have Ryan Theriot hit into a soul-sucking double play, and again in the sixth when they again had runners on second and third with one out. Groundouts from Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno took care of that.

Too bad, because for the second straight start, Ted Lilly threw pretty well. A pair of two-out singles in the second inning scored the only runs the Nationals got all day. The Nats had only four singles, and the two walks Lilly issued (neither of which were involved in the scoring). Michael Wuertz and Kerry Wood also threw well today, as did Sean Marshall, getting out of the 7th inning after walking pinch-hitter Aaron Boone.

So, as Colin said: tip your cap to the other guys (who the Cubs, under this year's pick 'em schedule, won't see again for almost four months, till late August at Wrigley Field), enjoy the day of rest -- actually, closer to two days off with the next game not being till Tuesday night -- and get ready for another series with the Brewers.

Two series with the Brewers at home in April and none in Milwaukee till July? That's a topic for another day.

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Reposted from the ticket exchange

I will be going to the game Thursday. I have four bleacher tickets (face value $22 each). I will offer my extra tickets for FREE to any three people who will meet me at Wrigley at 10:30 a.m. to get in the bleacher line early. The requirement is that you have to give me your giveaway for the day, a tankard mug. You must be 21 or older to get a tankard.

Please email ASAP

zambranofan {at} sbcglobal [dot] net

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Apr 27, 2008 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Another example of any team can beat any other team.

Tampa Bay just finished a three-game sweep of the Red Sox.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 3:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

and the Rays are currently tied for first in the AL East with...

[wait for it]

...the Baltimore Orioles!!!

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Apr 27, 2008 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another proof that...

it’s April!

by Fraggin Judge on Apr 27, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disappointing Day

Just back from the park. It was cloudy and chilly, and Daryle Ward obviously wasn’t the only one who wanted out of there. You have to give credit to Lannan, who I mentioned last night has really been on a tear. That doesn’t excuse the fact, however, that the Cubs had a couple of opportunities to get back into the game and failed. Last night, they capitalized. Today, they didn’t. So, from where I’m standing, a step forward and a step back.

I do appreciate, however, anytime I am treated to a stolen base by Hank White.

Here are a couple of photos:

Hank White following his stolen base.

Reed Johnson’s headfirst slide in the 5th.

It was nice to have them in town, but I guess given the way things went it may be best for them to move on now.

The Artist Formerly Known as Chris

by 08Cubs on Apr 27, 2008 4:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hank White's SB...

... his first since 2001, the fifth of his career. You saw a rarity!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A Historic Moment ...

that of course had to be memorialized with a photo. I’ll also talk to the Nats about putting up a plaque somewhere.

The Artist Formerly Known as Chris

by 08Cubs on Apr 27, 2008 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They should give him the bag!

by Shanghai Badger on Apr 27, 2008 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Missing Alfonso??

I was at the game today as well.

Since no-one has brought it up…after DeRo failed to get Nick Johnson at the plate, I said to my wife – Alfonso probably would have made that play. Others may disagree, but this seemed to me like the type of game where Alfonso could have been a game-changer, both defensively and offensively (remembering his 40-40 season with the Nats in 2006).

Regardless, a disappointing day. Last night was much better and it was very fortunate that the rained stayed away until the end of both games.

by MolineCubsFan on Apr 27, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano's fielding asset is his arm.

n/t

by Fraggin Judge on Apr 27, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For sure

Most people count the outfield assist out s but there is no stat on how many runners are held up for the simple fact that his arm is a canon. Same deal with Vlad Gurrero

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great photos.

What do you shoot with, if I haven’t already asked you?

Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager

by northsider on Apr 27, 2008 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nikon

And I still need to really learn how to use the thing.

The Artist Formerly Known as Chris

by 08Cubs on Apr 28, 2008 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Conveniently, the best and worst records...

...were both in the AL East last season, and were exact opposites: the Red Sox went 96-66, while the Rays went 66-96. The Rays finished 30 games back of the Red Sox, yeah. Damned if I know what I was thinking when I came to sixty – okay, I do know – I doublecounted each game as wins and losses.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

And that's not all that far apart, as you said originally.

No one won 100 games in 2007 and no one lost 100. That was the first time since 2000 that neither of those milestones was reached.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make a trade offer for Rafael Furcal

..........

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 4:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably too early,

but I’d still like to see that happen. I wonder what the Dodgers would want?

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reportedly the Dodgers are in talks with Furcal about an extension.

That would make hot SS prospect Chin-Lung Hu available, but they’re going to want a lot for him.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ONEDEC’s value has gone up for sure. ONEDEC, Murton and a PTBNL

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not even Ned Colletti

is that stupid. Brain Sabean, maybe, but not Colletti.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea I know

But if that prospect is that good they might as well dump that $15mil contract Furcal has.

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I was thinking.

Which makes this re-signing Furcal gambit a bit odd. Either Lung Hu is not as good as they thought, or he’s just not quite ready, or Colletti’s already trying to drive up Furcal’s deadline price by making it seem as if they are really interested in keeping him.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Dodgers have a longstanding MO...

...of developing great prospects for the express purpose of blocking them. At the same time, they have a great reluctance to deal their prospects. It’s a strategy based around risk avoidance, and it’s one of many reasons I think Colletti is a mediocre GM at best.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is truly odd.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They keep signing Nomar to extensions...

...even though they have stud prospects at first and third base. They sign Pierre and then they sign Jones the next season, even though they have two top outfield prospects in Kemp and Ethier. It’s baffling at best.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The outfield situation is laughable.

Loney is playing everyday, though, and Laroche is hurt, so the 3B picture is a bit muddied.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if I saw correctly they put Martin at 3rd the other night

and the 1st pitch to the new catcher was a past ball moving everyone up a base. haha

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

Nomar pulled something or some such nonsense and it forced them to put Martin at 3B.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They sent down the backup third baseman...

...for a reliever. Because that’s a good idea when your starter is Nomar.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL!

Every time I want to get pissed at Hendry, I thank the Maker that the Cubs don’t have some of these other sh*theads.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is interesting...

extending the ONEDEC nomenclature thing to Murton and you get… NOTRUM!

Whoa! I just got this mental image of Keystone standing in the left-field bleachers slowly moving a crooked finger up and down as he croaks out “NOT RUM, NOT RUM”...

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Apr 27, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOLY SH!T!!

I gotta get a #91 NOTRUM jersey!

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No doubt.

You think they’d want pitching or hitting? We might have the pitching prospects to get it done, but I don’t think we’ve got any position players that could net a prospect of Lung Hu’s caliber.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

With LaRoche and Garciaparra both on the DL...

...third base is the Dodger’s most pressing need on offense, and I don’t see us matching up with them on that.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right.

And the question is, why do this? At this point, isn’t the best choice Cedeno?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, yes.

I just haven’t grown to completely trust Cedeno yet…and I’m sure everyone’s aware of my sentiments towards Ryan Theriot.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So long as we're discussing this...

...here are some of the other shortstops that could be available at the deadline:

David Eckstein
Adam Everett
Orlando Cabrera
Cristian Guzma
Felipe Lopez
Juan Uribe

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everett and Cabrera are the only ones

I’m interested in. I don’t see KW swinging a crosstown deal and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion the Sox may not be out of it by the break. They may not be selling.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 27, 2008 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should add that if the Astros...

...keep it up, they could be blow up at the break, making Tejada available. That’s a loaded question, however.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tejada has legal problems, not a wise decision...

by crazymountain on Apr 28, 2008 12:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What - no Jack Wilson?

somebody in BCB-land is going to be disappointed…

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Apr 27, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose I should have added that Wilson is likely to be available.

But, if the Cubs are going to try and make a trade for a shortstop, it should either be:

1. A short-term stopgap until… well, until what I have no idea.
2. Something that will be a long-term solution to the position.

All of the guys I listed besides Tejada are on the last year of their contract – Furcal is as well. Tejada’s on a two-year deal, but has a shot at being productive in year two of his contract, at least.

Wilson’s a below-average shortstop at this point in his career; he’d make an allright stopgap, I guess, except he’s on a two year deal. A trade for Wilson means we could basically be right where we’re at right now in terms of the position, except now we’re stuck with a bad contract as well.

This may be revealing a bit too much about how obsessive I am on this topic, but I have a list at home of pretty much every starting shortstop in the majors and more than a few of the prominent backups, along with what I think their value is. Of the 38 or so, there’s something like five of them that I have absolutely no interest in whatever – well, Wilson (and Vizquel, for those who would bring him up) are two of those five.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Someone mentioned Macier Izturis the other day.

Do the Cubs have any shot at picking him up?

Nanika Ga Okoru!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 27, 2008 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doubtful. The Angels look to be in contention...

...and he seems settled in as their starting second baseman, with Erick Aybar over at short. Figgins, meanwhile, seems entrenched at third. I wouldn’t expect to make a productive trade with the Angels this season.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Howie Kendrick

will be their 2B sometime this week and Brandon Wood is playing well enough to be considered injury insurance for the next time Kendrick’s HBP.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yuck

the only SS on that list that would be a upgrade to this roster IMO is Orlando Cabrera, but I doubt the Sox trade him and trade him to us. The rest of the guys are not major upgrades over the guys we have. David Eckstein in most years(besides a few good years) puts up very simliar numbers to Ryan Theriot, but Theriot still has some upside to improve. Yeah Yeah I know he’s 28(wow so old), but if the guy can hit 280s-290s he’s not a bad player. I would rather take my chances with Theriot/Cedeno over Uribe/Lopez/Guzman or Everett.

It’s just funny were talking about adding a SS right now, don’t we have two SS hitting very well right now? This week were gonna have a hard enough time trying to mix and match them in the line-up. So right now it seems pretty silly to be talking about adding a SS. When Ryan Theriot is hitting 326/400/849 in 89 AB’s and Cedeno is hitting 364/417/962 in 44 AB’s. Yeah I know some are worried these guys because of their track records, but Cedeno is only 25 and could have improved at the plate. Same thing goes with Theriot, the guy might be 28, but he’s still only in his second full year in the ML. I find it really closed minded that Theriot can’t hit 20-25 points higher this year. With a lttle more power and OBP.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 28, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Closed and open minds

I don’t think it’s impossible for Theriot to hit better. I think it is unlikely. 3 days ago I ran the numbers on Theriot’s season minus the games against Pittsburgh. Then, in 52 PAs, he was hitting .286, with an OBP of .327. The real story is in the splits – how he does v. LHP and v. RHP. You could see that on display in this last series – he hit LHP well and RHP not well at all.

Fwiw, I do believe Ronny Cedeno can hit and will continue to hit. The only reason I am considering middle IF trades is because I think Lou is determined to get another LH bat into the lineup and Mike Fontenot isn’t cutting it.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 days ago I ran the numbers on Theriot’s season minus the games against Pittsburgh. Then, in 52 PAs, he was hitting .286, with an OBP of .327

Thats pretty unfair, to do that just to Theriot and try to use it as a negative on him. I bet you could take away those six games against the Pirates, and alot of our hitters(especially Soto) wouldn’t be hitting as well. Part of it could have been the poor Pirates pitching, or maybe our hitters were just red hot in that stretch. It just seems like people are always looking for a reason(or excuse) on why Theriot is doing well. Piniella/Hendry thought Theriot could always hit, and didn’t even look into adding another SS last offseason(could have gotten Eckstein, Uribe, Everrett). I don’t think their stupid, and I think Piniella can tell if a guy can hit or not by now. Thats why I have always thought it is very possible Theriot could improve this year. But only time will tell for sure, but right now I’m happy with the SS situation, and don’t think anybody should worry about the postion until they give us a reason to.

The real story is in the splits – how he does v. LHP and v. RHP. You could see that on display in this last series – he hit LHP well and RHP not well at all.

Theriot is hitting 317/377/821 against RH pitching this year. I know he only hit 260/318/634 against RH pitching last year. But again were talking about one season. Thats the one thing I don’t get with this Theriot stuff, everybody is going off one subpar season(or two awful months that destroyed his numbers). The way some judge Theriot you would think he would have had to have at least 2 or 3 bad fullseasons in the ML. But instead he did nothing but hit in 53 games in 06, was pretty good April though May, and July though August last year, and so far hit well this year.(also hit very well in spring training) I never said for sure that Theriot would improve this year. I just hate how some of the fans treat him and judge him after one fullseason in the big leagues. Give the guy a chance, lets see what he can do before we make a judgement. As shown 100s and 1000s of times in the past one fullseason in the ML isn’t enough time to make a judgement on any player.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 28, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Judging

Cubsfan25 -

Look, if Theriot hits an .821 OPS against RHP all season, I’m going to be glad. Ryan Theriot is one of those guys you want to see do well. I’m not judging him personally. I’m looking at everything I know about his baseball abilities and saying he’s not a good bet to continue to hit as he has. I’m looking at more than just one season – I’m looking at his minor league stats and at a scouting perspective that says he’s guessing at the plate.

Ryan Theriot reminds me of Bo Hart. Do you remember him? He came up to fill a hole on the ‘03 Cards. He had that grinder attitude, the name that led to easy fan signs, some web gems and a sizzling hot start with the bat. He quickly became a Cardinal fan favorite. But the signs were all there. He was 26 when he hit the majors, had nothing special in his minor league record, and once the league adjusted to him, he cooled down considerably. He’s been out of the majors now since 2004.

"Give him a chance." He had a chance. And when both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot play, that means that at least two of Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, or Reed Johnson aren’t getting a chance. I think everyone of those players are worthy of chances, even if their names aren’t as cool as The Riot’s.

When you look at their full records majors and minors, it’s clear that Ronny Cedeno is more likely to be a better SS over a full season. Why don’t you want to give Ronny a chance? Why are you judging him on one season?

Or if you’re not doing that to Ronny, then maybe some of the rest of us aren’t doing that to Theriot, either.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well put.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 28, 2008 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

????

Ryan Theriot reminds me of Bo Hart. Do you remember him? He came up to fill a hole on the ‘03 Cards. He had that grinder attitude, the name that led to easy fan signs, some web gems and a sizzling hot start with the bat. He quickly became a Cardinal fan favorite.

Theriot and Bo Hart is a very poor example. Bo Hart hit 277/311 in 77 games and 296 AB’s in 03. He only had 13 ML AB’s since then. Ryan Theriot is by far a MUCH better player, and the fact that Theriot is still hitting well after over 770 career ML AB’s proves that he’s not a fluke and capable of hitting big league pitching.

Give him a chance.” He had a chance. And when both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot play, that means that at least two of Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, or Reed Johnson aren’t getting a chance

And Theriot showed Piniella and Hendry enough last year to keep his job this year.(Cedeno didn’t in his chance) Ronny Cedeno has about 40 less ABs’ then Theriot in his ML career, and has put up MUCH worse ML numbers. As for Patterson, Pie, and Johnson they can’t play SS, plus I never said anything about Fontenot. If It was up to me he would be in the minor leagues.

When you look at their full records majors and minors, it’s clear that Ronny Cedeno is more likely to be a better SS over a full season.

Really? I agree that Cedeno has much better range, but his mental errors often hurt the team alot. Cedeno does have more talent, but his overall minor league numbers don’t favor him by much, and Theriots ML numbers blow him away.

Cedeno Minor league
276/329/724 in 2044 AB’s

Theriot Minor League
271/355/692 in 2048 AB’s

Going into the season

Cedeno Major League numbers
247/277/626

Theriot Major League numbers
276/341/720

Yeah I know Cedeno numbers are weighed down because of his struggles at a young age, but so are Theriot due to the Cubs trying to make him a switch hitter. I know Cedeno has destroyed Triple A pitching in his last 500 AB’s or so. But who says Theriot wouldn’t have if he was in the minors in the last year and half? I know Cedeno is 25 and Theriot is 28, but Theriot doesn’t have to improve quite as much as Cedeno does either. I just find it really hard to believe that hitters can’t improve after the age of 28, plenty of hitters have.

Why don’t you want to give Ronny a chance? Why are you judging him on one season. Or if you’re not doing that to Ronny, then maybe some of the rest of us aren’t doing that to Theriot, either.

Why would we give Ronny Cedeno a chance right now? Our starting SS is hitting 326/400 in more then double the AB’s Cedeno has gotten. How could we justify taking Theriot out of the line-up when he is hitting the way he has? Only a person who shows bias and put judgement on Theriot already would do something like that. But I don’t get why your saying, I’m not giving Cedeno a chance? When did I ever say that? If Theriot doesn’t keep hitting well, I’m fine with Cedeno taking his job and becoming the starting SS. But if you want Theriot out of the line-up when he’s hitting well or are waiting for him to fail, thats not giving him a chance.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 28, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Answers

Part of what I hoped my last post might suggest is that we can both have good reasons for our opinion on this matter without assuming that the other is, in your words, “biased” or “judgmental.” I mean we all have biases, but for me it’s really nothing personal against Ryan Theriot.

If I get the time, perhaps I can go through your last poist point by point and talk about how to analyze minor league stats by the players’ ages at different levels, about how Bo Hart had a stretch where he hit better than Theriot, about how in your own words you have asked Cedeno to not get a chance even though he’s outhitting Theriot, etc.

But the question is – why make long, complicated arguments if the response will always be “You’re just biased”?

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

about how Bo Hart had a stretch where he hit better than Theriot

So did Mike Fontenot. Hart and Fontenot is maybe a better comparsion. Theriot showed he is better then one little fluke hot streak.

If I get the time, perhaps I can go through your last poist point by point and talk about how to analyze minor league stats by the players’ ages at different levels

It doesn’t really matter, both have had much different careers so far. Cedeno struggled when he was young but figured it out around the age of 21. While Theriot didn’t get drafted until age 21, but had his career setback due to the Cubs trying to make him a switch hitter. So he almost had to start over at the age of 24 and when he did he was in the majors by the age of 25. Plus both guys are different type of players IMO as well.

about how in your own words you have asked Cedeno to not get a chance even though he’s outhitting Theriot, etc.

I don’t really believe he is out hitting Theriot. Sure Cedeno has better numbers, but he also has 48 more AB’s then Cedeno. With 13 more hits, 7 more walks, and 2 more extra base hits. If your going to go by that, then Ward should have started over Lee last year becaue he hit 327/436 despite 457 less AB’s. I don’t believe Cedeno would be hitting 364/417/962 in 89 AB’s. I’m all for Cedeno getting the chance, but he has to wait his turn now. It’s Theriot job to lose, and the guy has done nothing at all to lose his job. I just don’t think people should be expecting Theriot to fail, and should give him a chance.

why make long, complicated arguments if the response will always be "You’re just biased"?

I’m sorry thats just the way you were coming off. It’s like you already made a judgement on Theriot and labeled him a subpar player. But Cedeno you see him as someone who has good potential and is finally showing it. So he should play over Theriot even though Theriot is hitting very well. It’s like you are sure Theriot is going to drop off alot, so you want Cedeno in there right now, without seeing if Theriot maybe has improved.

IMO Cedeno/Theriot are pretty equal, sure Cedeno has more talent and upside, but having more talent doesn’t always make you the better baseball player. So if Theriot does drop off, then Cedeno can get his chance if he’s still hitting well. But right now I’m gonna give Theriot a chance and hope he can keep hitting well. If Cedeno outplays Theriot and takes his job, then I would do the samething for Cedeno.

by cubsfan25 on Apr 28, 2008 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reasons for our POV

You have said that you don’t believe Cedeno would be hitting what he is hitting in 89 ABs. You have a set point of view (POV) on Cedeno that believes he is not a good hitter no matter what he does in limited PT.

Now, I totally agree with the general supposition here:
1) That players of all sorts can outhit the very best players in small sample sizes.
2) That because of 1) playing time should not be awarded according to a hot start.

What I don’t get is why you can apply all that so easily to Ronny Cedeno, but call me “biased” if I try to apply it to Ryan Theriot?

I mean I guess you can call me “biased” if by “biased” you mean that I have studied the statistics and scouting reports of many of the Cubs’ players and have come to some conclusions about what I think each is likely to accomplish over a full season’s worth of play. But the word “biased” especially as you have used it (e.g. “Only a person who shows bias and put judgement on Theriot already would do something like that.”), suggests unreasoned dislike.

I’d like to see Theriot succeed. If for no other reason than to shut up all the critics of the Cubs’ farm system that “can’t develop position players” I’d like to see him succeed. I just don’t think he is nearly as likely to succeed as Ronny Cedeno.

This is the same opinion I read in pre-season scouting reviews of the Cubs’s farm system. Both Jim Callis at Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus said Cedeno should be the Cubs SS of the future. From a scouting perspective, they see Cedeno as having better tools for success. You can also look at several projection systems, which tend to like Cedeno over Theriot.

So, the question is – who will hit better over 589 ABs – not just 89 ABs. We can’t know the answer. Andres Blanco could end up outhitting every Cub if only he was given the chance. Unlikely things happen in baseball all the time. But you can’t plan around the unlikely. You set your team up to play with the greatest likelihood of success.

by DGU on Apr 29, 2008 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point...

...yes, the best option is Cedeno. I’m still not convinced that he’s a good option, but in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

Now, if at the ASB, Cedeno is still productive, then maybe you focus your trade interests later, or just stand pat.

But looking at the way this team is constructed, the two positions where the team could receive a shot in the arm at the trade deadline are shortstop and center field. Maybe it’s a bit early to be thinking about that, sure. I don’t know that it’s a bad thing to think ahead, though.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Apr 27, 2008 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just bored and talking nonsense

Furcal is playing out of his mind the 1st few weeks and I can only hope our middle infield doesnt cost the Cubs too many more games at the plate and in the field. Furcal solves 2 problems I’ve seen people talk about here at BCB…SS and Lead Off.

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure,but.

The question is what the cost of getting him and what other problems would that cost create for the Cubs. Good matter to speculate about, though.

by Fraggin Judge on Apr 27, 2008 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But thats the situation with every trade and deal. Is everyone happy with making the playoffs again? Or is it time to blow the bank for the World Series experience…

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We match with the Dodgers very well if you're willing to trade DeRosa.

Mark DeRosa makes a lot of sense for the Dodgers who have the big question mark at 3B this year and will have one at 2B next year.

Would you do DeRosa for Hu straight up?

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Encouraging that Lilly threw well again...

...if he and Hill can get it going and keep it going, we will win far more games like today than we will lose.

by DudeVf11 on Apr 27, 2008 5:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

exactly

which is why even though it may be tough to lose by 2 as opposed to getting beat down, these kind of games usually have a lot of positives

Soriano a lo profuuundo-NO-NO-NO-NO! (Spanish for "Soriano hits a home run!)

by CubbyBlues on Apr 27, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent recap, Al.

My only concern now is that the team is apparently going through an offensive slump. Soto’s 8 consecutive K’s is the best example. I hope tomorrow’s rest will take care of that.

Positive: Pitching improving (e.g., Lilly and Wuertz).

by Fraggin Judge on Apr 27, 2008 6:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Offensive slump?

They scored seven runs on Saturday night. So far, the slump has lasted one day.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is more pitchers than teams...

...if you are good enough to be in the major leagues you are good enough to step in one game and shut a team down. Just about any starter can come in and have a game and get a good win.

Even Glendon Rusch had some good games where he shut teams down.

Bleeding Cubbie Blue since 1985.

by Bricks and Ivy on Apr 27, 2008 6:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hank White Robbed

Apparently, there was a scoring change, because he is not credited with a stolen base in the box score.

They put it up on the scoreboard as one during the game, but the Nats are kind of shaky in the scorekeeping department.

I feel so cheated.

The Artist Formerly Known as Chris

by 08Cubs on Apr 27, 2008 7:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That's really stupid.

I have never seen a play scored like that before—when the trailing runner advancing on a steal of third doesn’t also get credit for a SB.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Nats...

are just too cheap to pay for the plaque.

The Artist Formerly Known as Chris

by 08Cubs on Apr 27, 2008 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That stinks for Henry...

but it is in the rulebook…at least the rules on MLB.com’s site.

10.07 (a).

Weird though, cause the rule states that the trailing runner officially advances on a Wild Pitch/Passed Ball, but no pitcher or catcher was credited with one. I thought that every base advance in the game had to be accounted for somehow.

by MillsChC on Apr 27, 2008 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If McPhail

wasn’t so cheap, we would already have Furcal.

by Rick B on Apr 27, 2008 7:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, lordy.

Revisionist history at its finest. Furcal was offered more years by the Cubs, but less per year. He took the shorter offer, hoping to cash in at the end of the third year, which is this year. He may have gambled wrong, as his value is quite a bit lower now than it was then.

I don’t consider a four-year, $48 million offer (which is what Hendry made) “cheap”. Do you?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 27, 2008 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Furthermore...

It was reported at the time that Furcal took that revised Dodgers deal without contacting the Cubs first, and giving them a chance to counter.

I will say one thing though about today’s game. This is the second time in a row that I’ve seen Lou essentially field the same lineup on a getaway afternoon game that he used the night before—with poor results. I wonder if it wouldn’t have been better to clear out the bench, and give some of the starters a couple of days rest instead, particularly after such a crazy travel week.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 27, 2008 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, maybe.

The problem is, “clearing the bench” would have meant starting Fontenot and Pie against a LHP. Who else would you have started?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 3:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well,

Definitely DeRosa, and I probably would have at least considered removing Lee and Ramirez after the first couple of at-bats. Since the Pirates series, Mark has been on a 4-24 mini-slump. And I always worry a bit about conditioning and fatigue with Ramirez.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 28, 2008 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But you can't take ALL of those guys out.

And there’s no way Lou’s going to take Lee and Ramirez out of a 2-0 game in the middle innings.

Ramirez, for his part, seems in better shape this year.

In addition to the three time zones in 13 days, the 13 games had nine different starting times. That can’t be helpful to players used to routines.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"That's my opinion,

and if you don’t like it, well, I have others.”

by Damen Jackson on Apr 28, 2008 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

True enough.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wrong

As Al points out you are just plain wrong. No need to add anything to what he said. But the fact is I’m glad we didn’t get Furcal. He cost to much and we didn’t need him. Heck I wish we didn’t get Soriano. No one is worth what we are paying him and what we will be paying him down the line. Overpaying does not make a good GM, just ask them in Texas where they overpaid ARod and the didn’t have the money to build a team around him.

by bubbamike the one and only on Apr 27, 2008 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weren't you glad last September

When the Cubs rode on Soriano’s back???

by crazymountain on Apr 28, 2008 12:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The sad part about the game

is we were only one hit from tying it and that would have probably given us a big lift. I don’t think the Cubs were too tired or whatever, but I felt after the easy shutout on Saturday that today they would have came out hitting a little better and try and have a better road trip. They had enough chances to tie and have big innings but couldn’t hit the ball out of the infield.

Personally, I thought the inning Lilly gave up the runs he was tipping his pitches once he got 2 strikes. I could tell what was coming when he started to rear back. Lilly’s at bat with 2nd and 3rd with no outs perplexed me. Everyone knows Lannan was trying to get Lilly to hit to the 3rd baseman to keep the runners in their place and he kept swinging at the outside pitches that were off the plate. You need to hit to the right side or just take your K and sit down. I knwo he struck out anyway, but he never took a pitch to force Lannan to bring his pitches in some.

I know, piddly beefs, but if he gets a run in then, who knows? If we get shut out by a dominating pitcher where we don’t even get a runner past first base all day, fine. We had plenty of RBI’s sitting out there today and no one got a timely hit. I don’t think Lannan was all that, we were just a bit off (tired, yadda yadda) today. Gotta start a new streak on Tuesday!

"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse

by BigJohnAZ on Apr 27, 2008 7:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

LHP

The Cubs seemed to handle lefthanded pitching when they faced the Pirates. But recently they may be struggling when the SP is a lefty. We’ll see if this turns into a trend like last season. The importance of scoring in later innings against relievers is also going to be an important factor, I think.

by AboutTheCubs on Apr 27, 2008 8:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cubs are OK

Winning on the road is hard, no matter who you play. And there was no way the offense was going to continue the breathtaking pace they were on. Take a deep breath and everything will be fine. Good to see Ted Lilly do reasonably well again.

by MDBNIU on Apr 27, 2008 9:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Take a deep breath and everything will be fine.

A comment like this from blue mike happens about as often as a Hank White stolen base. Both on the same day????

by TC Cubby on Apr 28, 2008 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clearly, the planets were aligned just right.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 28, 2008 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Way to go Gary Mathews Jr

he dropped a major F-Bomb on ESPN tonight haha When will the networks realize there is no need for mics on the field after a game geesh haha

” About f__king time!” – Gary Mathews JR

"Stay thirsty my friends....."

by Keystone80435 on Apr 27, 2008 10:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't hear this, but...

... I bet ESPN starts doing all their live events on a 10-second delay soon.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 3:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And here's...

...the YouTube clip. (Sound quality is poor but audible.)

Nanika Ga Okoru!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 28, 2008 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OT - Roger Clemens

Apparently, steroids isn’t the only thing he has done and cheated at during his career

2008 Cubs: Why Beat A Team in Regulation, when you can beat them in extras?

by Chanman25 on Apr 28, 2008 6:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Link

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/04/27/2008-04-27_sources_roger_clemens_had_10year_fling_w.html

2008 Cubs: Why Beat A Team in Regulation, when you can beat them in extras?

by Chanman25 on Apr 28, 2008 6:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seeing as she was

supposedly 15 (!) when this “relationship” began, if this wasn’t purely Platonic, Roger is is for deeper trouble than baseball trouble.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Apr 28, 2008 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Lord...

Roger Clemens is the media gift that keeps on giving. Now add accused statutory rapist to the list of troubles. And I really can’t figure out what worse if this is true; an intimate relationship with someone that young, or that it was with someone so obviously emotionally fragile. Either way, she needs the money, so the truth will come out; I’m certain she’ll see more cash from that tell-all than a crappy reality show.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 28, 2008 8:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still Feel Good About Cubs, Despite Nationals Series

This was certainly the worst series the Cubs have played since the opening series versus the Brewers. This Nationals series might have been even worse than that one. I am still encouraged that Lilly is pitching much better. The Cubs are going to hit better (not hard, I know) with RISP than they did Sunday. The team is still in first place and still has more talent than any other team in the division.

by memphiscub on Apr 28, 2008 8:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs