Perspective
The Cubs were shut out by the Nationals 2-0 this afternoon -- the first time they have been shut out this year.
That took 25 games. For perspective, here's a list of the first game in which the Cubs were shut out in the twelve seasons before 2008:
2007: game 11 2006: game 23 2005: game 7 2004: game 19 2003: game 21 2002: game 21 2001: game 23 2000: game 27 1999: game 17 1998: game 13 1997: game 6 1996: game 23
So in all but one season -- and that happened to be a pretty bad year, actually, 2000 -- the Cubs were shut out earlier than the 25 games it took in 2008. This offense is pretty good -- it just got shut down today.
This was posted by BCB reader cwyers in the comments in the overflow thread, and in case you haven't seen that, and even if you have, it bears repeating:
The spread in talent between major league ballclubs is pretty small when you take a step back and look at it from a distance; the Nationals only look like a really bad ballclub when you compare them to other major league teams. And even then, we tend to exaggerate the difference in quality between two teams.
Sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose. The good teams tend to win more and the bad teams tend to lose more, but that’s over a 162 game season. In ONE game, any team in the majors, even the Giants, has enough talent to win.
It’s not a problem about "being in their heads," or being tired, or being mentally weak, or whatever character defects the armchair shrinks like to ascribe to sheer random chance. This happens, and it happens all the time. The difference between the best and worst record in baseball last season was only sixty games of 162.
What you do is you tip your cap to the other team, and you move on to play the next game.
Couldn't have said it better, although I will quibble a bit with one assertion that Colin made: I think the Cubs are tired after playing 13 games in three time zones over the last 13 days. Four different times in that 13-day stretch, they played a night game after a day game, and that can really screw up your body clock, especially considering that the first seven games of this season were all day games, and that's after playing a month of day games in Arizona (there was one split-squad night game during spring training).
(Also, wasn't the difference between best and worst in 2007 thirty games, not sixty?)
This isn't to offer excuses, and you might say, "How can they be tired after not even one month?" But given the cross-country travel of this bizarre "if it's Wednesday, this must be Denver" road trip, switching game times and time zones, I can see how the Cubs would have come out a little bit flat this afternoon.
So, give credit to John Lannan, who kept the Cubs off balance all day, and to Jon Rauch, who had Daryle Ward swinging at a pitch to end the game as if Ward were saying, "Enough of this game, let's go home." The Cubs had two big chances to chase Lannan and put the game away -- in the fifth when they caught a break on Nick Johnson's error and loaded the bases with one out, only to have Ryan Theriot hit into a soul-sucking double play, and again in the sixth when they again had runners on second and third with one out. Groundouts from Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno took care of that.
Too bad, because for the second straight start, Ted Lilly threw pretty well. A pair of two-out singles in the second inning scored the only runs the Nationals got all day. The Nats had only four singles, and the two walks Lilly issued (neither of which were involved in the scoring). Michael Wuertz and Kerry Wood also threw well today, as did Sean Marshall, getting out of the 7th inning after walking pinch-hitter Aaron Boone.
So, as Colin said: tip your cap to the other guys (who the Cubs, under this year's pick 'em schedule, won't see again for almost four months, till late August at Wrigley Field), enjoy the day of rest -- actually, closer to two days off with the next game not being till Tuesday night -- and get ready for another series with the Brewers.
Two series with the Brewers at home in April and none in Milwaukee till July? That's a topic for another day.
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Reposted from the ticket exchange
I will be going to the game Thursday. I have four bleacher tickets (face value $22 each). I will offer my extra tickets for FREE to any three people who will meet me at Wrigley at 10:30 a.m. to get in the bleacher line early. The requirement is that you have to give me your giveaway for the day, a tankard mug. You must be 21 or older to get a tankard.
Please email ASAP
zambranofan {at} sbcglobal [dot] net
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on
Apr 27, 2008 3:56 PM CDT
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Another example of any team can beat any other team.
Tampa Bay just finished a three-game sweep of the Red Sox.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 27, 2008 3:58 PM CDT
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and the Rays are currently tied for first in the AL East with...
[wait for it]
...the Baltimore Orioles!!!
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on
Apr 27, 2008 4:57 PM CDT
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Disappointing Day
Just back from the park. It was cloudy and chilly, and Daryle Ward obviously wasn’t the only one who wanted out of there. You have to give credit to Lannan, who I mentioned last night has really been on a tear. That doesn’t excuse the fact, however, that the Cubs had a couple of opportunities to get back into the game and failed. Last night, they capitalized. Today, they didn’t. So, from where I’m standing, a step forward and a step back.
I do appreciate, however, anytime I am treated to a stolen base by Hank White.
Here are a couple of photos:

Hank White following his stolen base.

Reed Johnson’s headfirst slide in the 5th.
It was nice to have them in town, but I guess given the way things went it may be best for them to move on now.
The Artist Formerly Known as Chris
by 08Cubs on
Apr 27, 2008 4:07 PM CDT
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Hank White's SB...
... his first since 2001, the fifth of his career. You saw a rarity!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 27, 2008 4:22 PM CDT
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A Historic Moment ...
that of course had to be memorialized with a photo. I’ll also talk to the Nats about putting up a plaque somewhere.
The Artist Formerly Known as Chris
by 08Cubs on
Apr 27, 2008 4:29 PM CDT
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Missing Alfonso??
I was at the game today as well.
Since no-one has brought it up…after DeRo failed to get Nick Johnson at the plate, I said to my wife – Alfonso probably would have made that play. Others may disagree, but this seemed to me like the type of game where Alfonso could have been a game-changer, both defensively and offensively (remembering his 40-40 season with the Nats in 2006).
Regardless, a disappointing day. Last night was much better and it was very fortunate that the rained stayed away until the end of both games.
by MolineCubsFan on
Apr 27, 2008 5:46 PM CDT
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Soriano's fielding asset is his arm.
n/t
by Fraggin Judge on
Apr 27, 2008 6:06 PM CDT
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For sure
Most people count the outfield assist out s but there is no stat on how many runners are held up for the simple fact that his arm is a canon. Same deal with Vlad Gurrero
"Stay thirsty my friends....."
by Keystone80435 on
Apr 27, 2008 6:08 PM CDT
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Great photos.
What do you shoot with, if I haven’t already asked you?
Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager
by northsider on
Apr 27, 2008 6:47 PM CDT
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Nikon
And I still need to really learn how to use the thing.
The Artist Formerly Known as Chris
by 08Cubs on
Apr 28, 2008 12:15 AM CDT
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Conveniently, the best and worst records...
...were both in the AL East last season, and were exact opposites: the Red Sox went 96-66, while the Rays went 66-96. The Rays finished 30 games back of the Red Sox, yeah. Damned if I know what I was thinking when I came to sixty – okay, I do know – I doublecounted each game as wins and losses.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 4:09 PM CDT
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And that's not all that far apart, as you said originally.
No one won 100 games in 2007 and no one lost 100. That was the first time since 2000 that neither of those milestones was reached.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 27, 2008 4:24 PM CDT
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Make a trade offer for Rafael Furcal
..........
"Stay thirsty my friends....."
by Keystone80435 on
Apr 27, 2008 4:47 PM CDT
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Probably too early,
but I’d still like to see that happen. I wonder what the Dodgers would want?
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 4:48 PM CDT
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Reportedly the Dodgers are in talks with Furcal about an extension.
That would make hot SS prospect Chin-Lung Hu available, but they’re going to want a lot for him.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 4:51 PM CDT
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ONEDEC’s value has gone up for sure. ONEDEC, Murton and a PTBNL
"Stay thirsty my friends....."
by Keystone80435 on
Apr 27, 2008 4:54 PM CDT
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Not even Ned Colletti
is that stupid. Brain Sabean, maybe, but not Colletti.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:01 PM CDT
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Yea I know
But if that prospect is that good they might as well dump that $15mil contract Furcal has.
"Stay thirsty my friends....."
by Keystone80435 on
Apr 27, 2008 5:02 PM CDT
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That's what I was thinking.
Which makes this re-signing Furcal gambit a bit odd. Either Lung Hu is not as good as they thought, or he’s just not quite ready, or Colletti’s already trying to drive up Furcal’s deadline price by making it seem as if they are really interested in keeping him.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:12 PM CDT
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The Dodgers have a longstanding MO...
...of developing great prospects for the express purpose of blocking them. At the same time, they have a great reluctance to deal their prospects. It’s a strategy based around risk avoidance, and it’s one of many reasons I think Colletti is a mediocre GM at best.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 5:20 PM CDT
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That is truly odd.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:22 PM CDT
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They keep signing Nomar to extensions...
...even though they have stud prospects at first and third base. They sign Pierre and then they sign Jones the next season, even though they have two top outfield prospects in Kemp and Ethier. It’s baffling at best.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 5:26 PM CDT
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The outfield situation is laughable.
Loney is playing everyday, though, and Laroche is hurt, so the 3B picture is a bit muddied.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:29 PM CDT
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if I saw correctly they put Martin at 3rd the other night
and the 1st pitch to the new catcher was a past ball moving everyone up a base. haha
"Stay thirsty my friends....."
by Keystone80435 on
Apr 27, 2008 5:31 PM CDT
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Yeah.
Nomar pulled something or some such nonsense and it forced them to put Martin at 3B.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:34 PM CDT
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They sent down the backup third baseman...
...for a reliever. Because that’s a good idea when your starter is Nomar.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 5:36 PM CDT
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LOL!
Every time I want to get pissed at Hendry, I thank the Maker that the Cubs don’t have some of these other sh*theads.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:44 PM CDT
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This is interesting...
extending the ONEDEC nomenclature thing to Murton and you get… NOTRUM!
Whoa! I just got this mental image of Keystone standing in the left-field bleachers slowly moving a crooked finger up and down as he croaks out “NOT RUM, NOT RUM”...
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on
Apr 27, 2008 5:08 PM CDT
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HOLY SH!T!!
I gotta get a #91 NOTRUM jersey!
"Stay thirsty my friends....."
by Keystone80435 on
Apr 27, 2008 5:15 PM CDT
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No doubt.
You think they’d want pitching or hitting? We might have the pitching prospects to get it done, but I don’t think we’ve got any position players that could net a prospect of Lung Hu’s caliber.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:00 PM CDT
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With LaRoche and Garciaparra both on the DL...
...third base is the Dodger’s most pressing need on offense, and I don’t see us matching up with them on that.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 5:13 PM CDT
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Right.
And the question is, why do this? At this point, isn’t the best choice Cedeno?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 27, 2008 5:14 PM CDT
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At this point, yes.
I just haven’t grown to completely trust Cedeno yet…and I’m sure everyone’s aware of my sentiments towards Ryan Theriot.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:17 PM CDT
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So long as we're discussing this...
...here are some of the other shortstops that could be available at the deadline:
David Eckstein
Adam Everett
Orlando Cabrera
Cristian Guzma
Felipe Lopez
Juan Uribe
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 5:35 PM CDT
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Everett and Cabrera are the only ones
I’m interested in. I don’t see KW swinging a crosstown deal and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion the Sox may not be out of it by the break. They may not be selling.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 27, 2008 5:47 PM CDT
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I should add that if the Astros...
...keep it up, they could be blow up at the break, making Tejada available. That’s a loaded question, however.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 6:38 PM CDT
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What - no Jack Wilson?
somebody in BCB-land is going to be disappointed…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on
Apr 27, 2008 7:44 PM CDT
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I suppose I should have added that Wilson is likely to be available.
But, if the Cubs are going to try and make a trade for a shortstop, it should either be:
1. A short-term stopgap until… well, until what I have no idea.
2. Something that will be a long-term solution to the position.
All of the guys I listed besides Tejada are on the last year of their contract – Furcal is as well. Tejada’s on a two-year deal, but has a shot at being productive in year two of his contract, at least.
Wilson’s a below-average shortstop at this point in his career; he’d make an allright stopgap, I guess, except he’s on a two year deal. A trade for Wilson means we could basically be right where we’re at right now in terms of the position, except now we’re stuck with a bad contract as well.
This may be revealing a bit too much about how obsessive I am on this topic, but I have a list at home of pretty much every starting shortstop in the majors and more than a few of the prominent backups, along with what I think their value is. Of the 38 or so, there’s something like five of them that I have absolutely no interest in whatever – well, Wilson (and Vizquel, for those who would bring him up) are two of those five.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 8:05 PM CDT
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Someone mentioned Macier Izturis the other day.
Do the Cubs have any shot at picking him up?
Nanika Ga Okoru!
by dat cubfan daver on
Apr 27, 2008 8:50 PM CDT
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Doubtful. The Angels look to be in contention...
...and he seems settled in as their starting second baseman, with Erick Aybar over at short. Figgins, meanwhile, seems entrenched at third. I wouldn’t expect to make a productive trade with the Angels this season.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 9:02 PM CDT
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Howie Kendrick
will be their 2B sometime this week and Brandon Wood is playing well enough to be considered injury insurance for the next time Kendrick’s HBP.
by DGU on
Apr 28, 2008 9:26 AM CDT
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Yuck
the only SS on that list that would be a upgrade to this roster IMO is Orlando Cabrera, but I doubt the Sox trade him and trade him to us. The rest of the guys are not major upgrades over the guys we have. David Eckstein in most years(besides a few good years) puts up very simliar numbers to Ryan Theriot, but Theriot still has some upside to improve. Yeah Yeah I know he’s 28(wow so old), but if the guy can hit 280s-290s he’s not a bad player. I would rather take my chances with Theriot/Cedeno over Uribe/Lopez/Guzman or Everett.
It’s just funny were talking about adding a SS right now, don’t we have two SS hitting very well right now? This week were gonna have a hard enough time trying to mix and match them in the line-up. So right now it seems pretty silly to be talking about adding a SS. When Ryan Theriot is hitting 326/400/849 in 89 AB’s and Cedeno is hitting 364/417/962 in 44 AB’s. Yeah I know some are worried these guys because of their track records, but Cedeno is only 25 and could have improved at the plate. Same thing goes with Theriot, the guy might be 28, but he’s still only in his second full year in the ML. I find it really closed minded that Theriot can’t hit 20-25 points higher this year. With a lttle more power and OBP.
by cubsfan25 on
Apr 28, 2008 1:02 PM CDT
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Closed and open minds
I don’t think it’s impossible for Theriot to hit better. I think it is unlikely. 3 days ago I ran the numbers on Theriot’s season minus the games against Pittsburgh. Then, in 52 PAs, he was hitting .286, with an OBP of .327. The real story is in the splits – how he does v. LHP and v. RHP. You could see that on display in this last series – he hit LHP well and RHP not well at all.
Fwiw, I do believe Ronny Cedeno can hit and will continue to hit. The only reason I am considering middle IF trades is because I think Lou is determined to get another LH bat into the lineup and Mike Fontenot isn’t cutting it.
by DGU on
Apr 28, 2008 1:38 PM CDT
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3 days ago I ran the numbers on Theriot’s season minus the games against Pittsburgh. Then, in 52 PAs, he was hitting .286, with an OBP of .327.
Thats pretty unfair, to do that just to Theriot and try to use it as a negative on him. I bet you could take away those six games against the Pirates, and alot of our hitters(especially Soto) wouldn’t be hitting as well. Part of it could have been the poor Pirates pitching, or maybe our hitters were just red hot in that stretch. It just seems like people are always looking for a reason(or excuse) on why Theriot is doing well. Piniella/Hendry thought Theriot could always hit, and didn’t even look into adding another SS last offseason(could have gotten Eckstein, Uribe, Everrett). I don’t think their stupid, and I think Piniella can tell if a guy can hit or not by now. Thats why I have always thought it is very possible Theriot could improve this year. But only time will tell for sure, but right now I’m happy with the SS situation, and don’t think anybody should worry about the postion until they give us a reason to.
The real story is in the splits – how he does v. LHP and v. RHP. You could see that on display in this last series – he hit LHP well and RHP not well at all.
Theriot is hitting 317/377/821 against RH pitching this year. I know he only hit 260/318/634 against RH pitching last year. But again were talking about one season. Thats the one thing I don’t get with this Theriot stuff, everybody is going off one subpar season(or two awful months that destroyed his numbers). The way some judge Theriot you would think he would have had to have at least 2 or 3 bad fullseasons in the ML. But instead he did nothing but hit in 53 games in 06, was pretty good April though May, and July though August last year, and so far hit well this year.(also hit very well in spring training) I never said for sure that Theriot would improve this year. I just hate how some of the fans treat him and judge him after one fullseason in the big leagues. Give the guy a chance, lets see what he can do before we make a judgement. As shown 100s and 1000s of times in the past one fullseason in the ML isn’t enough time to make a judgement on any player.
by cubsfan25 on
Apr 28, 2008 2:37 PM CDT
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Judging
Cubsfan25 -
Look, if Theriot hits an .821 OPS against RHP all season, I’m going to be glad. Ryan Theriot is one of those guys you want to see do well. I’m not judging him personally. I’m looking at everything I know about his baseball abilities and saying he’s not a good bet to continue to hit as he has. I’m looking at more than just one season – I’m looking at his minor league stats and at a scouting perspective that says he’s guessing at the plate.
Ryan Theriot reminds me of Bo Hart. Do you remember him? He came up to fill a hole on the ‘03 Cards. He had that grinder attitude, the name that led to easy fan signs, some web gems and a sizzling hot start with the bat. He quickly became a Cardinal fan favorite. But the signs were all there. He was 26 when he hit the majors, had nothing special in his minor league record, and once the league adjusted to him, he cooled down considerably. He’s been out of the majors now since 2004.
"Give him a chance." He had a chance. And when both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot play, that means that at least two of Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, or Reed Johnson aren’t getting a chance. I think everyone of those players are worthy of chances, even if their names aren’t as cool as The Riot’s.
When you look at their full records majors and minors, it’s clear that Ronny Cedeno is more likely to be a better SS over a full season. Why don’t you want to give Ronny a chance? Why are you judging him on one season?
Or if you’re not doing that to Ronny, then maybe some of the rest of us aren’t doing that to Theriot, either.
by DGU on
Apr 28, 2008 4:15 PM CDT
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Well put.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
Apr 28, 2008 5:30 PM CDT
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????
Ryan Theriot reminds me of Bo Hart. Do you remember him? He came up to fill a hole on the ‘03 Cards. He had that grinder attitude, the name that led to easy fan signs, some web gems and a sizzling hot start with the bat. He quickly became a Cardinal fan favorite.
Theriot and Bo Hart is a very poor example. Bo Hart hit 277/311 in 77 games and 296 AB’s in 03. He only had 13 ML AB’s since then. Ryan Theriot is by far a MUCH better player, and the fact that Theriot is still hitting well after over 770 career ML AB’s proves that he’s not a fluke and capable of hitting big league pitching.
Give him a chance.” He had a chance. And when both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot play, that means that at least two of Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, or Reed Johnson aren’t getting a chance
And Theriot showed Piniella and Hendry enough last year to keep his job this year.(Cedeno didn’t in his chance) Ronny Cedeno has about 40 less ABs’ then Theriot in his ML career, and has put up MUCH worse ML numbers. As for Patterson, Pie, and Johnson they can’t play SS, plus I never said anything about Fontenot. If It was up to me he would be in the minor leagues.
When you look at their full records majors and minors, it’s clear that Ronny Cedeno is more likely to be a better SS over a full season.
Really? I agree that Cedeno has much better range, but his mental errors often hurt the team alot. Cedeno does have more talent, but his overall minor league numbers don’t favor him by much, and Theriots ML numbers blow him away.
Cedeno Minor league
276/329/724 in 2044 AB’s
Theriot Minor League
271/355/692 in 2048 AB’s
Going into the season
Cedeno Major League numbers
247/277/626
Theriot Major League numbers
276/341/720
Yeah I know Cedeno numbers are weighed down because of his struggles at a young age, but so are Theriot due to the Cubs trying to make him a switch hitter. I know Cedeno has destroyed Triple A pitching in his last 500 AB’s or so. But who says Theriot wouldn’t have if he was in the minors in the last year and half? I know Cedeno is 25 and Theriot is 28, but Theriot doesn’t have to improve quite as much as Cedeno does either. I just find it really hard to believe that hitters can’t improve after the age of 28, plenty of hitters have.
Why don’t you want to give Ronny a chance? Why are you judging him on one season. Or if you’re not doing that to Ronny, then maybe some of the rest of us aren’t doing that to Theriot, either.
Why would we give Ronny Cedeno a chance right now? Our starting SS is hitting 326/400 in more then double the AB’s Cedeno has gotten. How could we justify taking Theriot out of the line-up when he is hitting the way he has? Only a person who shows bias and put judgement on Theriot already would do something like that. But I don’t get why your saying, I’m not giving Cedeno a chance? When did I ever say that? If Theriot doesn’t keep hitting well, I’m fine with Cedeno taking his job and becoming the starting SS. But if you want Theriot out of the line-up when he’s hitting well or are waiting for him to fail, thats not giving him a chance.
by cubsfan25 on
Apr 28, 2008 6:17 PM CDT
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Answers
Part of what I hoped my last post might suggest is that we can both have good reasons for our opinion on this matter without assuming that the other is, in your words, “biased” or “judgmental.” I mean we all have biases, but for me it’s really nothing personal against Ryan Theriot.
If I get the time, perhaps I can go through your last poist point by point and talk about how to analyze minor league stats by the players’ ages at different levels, about how Bo Hart had a stretch where he hit better than Theriot, about how in your own words you have asked Cedeno to not get a chance even though he’s outhitting Theriot, etc.
But the question is – why make long, complicated arguments if the response will always be “You’re just biased”?
by DGU on
Apr 28, 2008 7:00 PM CDT
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about how Bo Hart had a stretch where he hit better than Theriot
So did Mike Fontenot. Hart and Fontenot is maybe a better comparsion. Theriot showed he is better then one little fluke hot streak.
If I get the time, perhaps I can go through your last poist point by point and talk about how to analyze minor league stats by the players’ ages at different levels
It doesn’t really matter, both have had much different careers so far. Cedeno struggled when he was young but figured it out around the age of 21. While Theriot didn’t get drafted until age 21, but had his career setback due to the Cubs trying to make him a switch hitter. So he almost had to start over at the age of 24 and when he did he was in the majors by the age of 25. Plus both guys are different type of players IMO as well.
about how in your own words you have asked Cedeno to not get a chance even though he’s outhitting Theriot, etc.
I don’t really believe he is out hitting Theriot. Sure Cedeno has better numbers, but he also has 48 more AB’s then Cedeno. With 13 more hits, 7 more walks, and 2 more extra base hits. If your going to go by that, then Ward should have started over Lee last year becaue he hit 327/436 despite 457 less AB’s. I don’t believe Cedeno would be hitting 364/417/962 in 89 AB’s. I’m all for Cedeno getting the chance, but he has to wait his turn now. It’s Theriot job to lose, and the guy has done nothing at all to lose his job. I just don’t think people should be expecting Theriot to fail, and should give him a chance.
why make long, complicated arguments if the response will always be "You’re just biased"?
I’m sorry thats just the way you were coming off. It’s like you already made a judgement on Theriot and labeled him a subpar player. But Cedeno you see him as someone who has good potential and is finally showing it. So he should play over Theriot even though Theriot is hitting very well. It’s like you are sure Theriot is going to drop off alot, so you want Cedeno in there right now, without seeing if Theriot maybe has improved.
IMO Cedeno/Theriot are pretty equal, sure Cedeno has more talent and upside, but having more talent doesn’t always make you the better baseball player. So if Theriot does drop off, then Cedeno can get his chance if he’s still hitting well. But right now I’m gonna give Theriot a chance and hope he can keep hitting well. If Cedeno outplays Theriot and takes his job, then I would do the samething for Cedeno.
by cubsfan25 on
Apr 28, 2008 8:09 PM CDT
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Reasons for our POV
You have said that you don’t believe Cedeno would be hitting what he is hitting in 89 ABs. You have a set point of view (POV) on Cedeno that believes he is not a good hitter no matter what he does in limited PT.
Now, I totally agree with the general supposition here:
1) That players of all sorts can outhit the very best players in small sample sizes.
2) That because of 1) playing time should not be awarded according to a hot start.
What I don’t get is why you can apply all that so easily to Ronny Cedeno, but call me “biased” if I try to apply it to Ryan Theriot?
I mean I guess you can call me “biased” if by “biased” you mean that I have studied the statistics and scouting reports of many of the Cubs’ players and have come to some conclusions about what I think each is likely to accomplish over a full season’s worth of play. But the word “biased” especially as you have used it (e.g. “Only a person who shows bias and put judgement on Theriot already would do something like that.”), suggests unreasoned dislike.
I’d like to see Theriot succeed. If for no other reason than to shut up all the critics of the Cubs’ farm system that “can’t develop position players” I’d like to see him succeed. I just don’t think he is nearly as likely to succeed as Ronny Cedeno.
This is the same opinion I read in pre-season scouting reviews of the Cubs’s farm system. Both Jim Callis at Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus said Cedeno should be the Cubs SS of the future. From a scouting perspective, they see Cedeno as having better tools for success. You can also look at several projection systems, which tend to like Cedeno over Theriot.
So, the question is – who will hit better over 589 ABs – not just 89 ABs. We can’t know the answer. Andres Blanco could end up outhitting every Cub if only he was given the chance. Unlikely things happen in baseball all the time. But you can’t plan around the unlikely. You set your team up to play with the greatest likelihood of success.
by DGU on
Apr 29, 2008 7:26 AM CDT
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At this point...
...yes, the best option is Cedeno. I’m still not convinced that he’s a good option, but in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
Now, if at the ASB, Cedeno is still productive, then maybe you focus your trade interests later, or just stand pat.
But looking at the way this team is constructed, the two positions where the team could receive a shot in the arm at the trade deadline are shortstop and center field. Maybe it’s a bit early to be thinking about that, sure. I don’t know that it’s a bad thing to think ahead, though.
by cwyers on
Apr 27, 2008 5:19 PM CDT
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