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R. Furcal, B. Roberts, O. Hudson, K. Johnson? Opening the TOOLbox

In Al’s “Perspective” post, the debate was restarted concerning whom the Cubs might acquire by trade to play SS.  You should check that post for some intelligent commentary.  I wanted to start a whole other fanpost, though, for two reasons – one, to get a poll up, and two, because I think the whole question needs to be rethought a bit.

 

I don’t believe the Cubs are looking to acquire just any middle-IF.  They are mostly looking to acquire a left-handed hitter who can bat either 1 or 2.  They aren’t even necessarily looking for a middle IF who can bat 1 or 2 – if the right CF came along, they’d make that deal, too, I believe.

Personally, I hope they don’t block Pie (or trade him), and find their Top-Of-the-Order-Lefty (TOOL) in the middle-IF ranks.

(Brief aside – a lefty who could bat 5th would work in theory, moving Dome to 2nd – but I can’t think of any hitter like that who would be available.)

So, who are the potential TOOLs?  Because I believe the Cubs are looking for a bat that can hit in a crucial lineup position, I think we need to rule out unproven players like Tony Abreu, Wilson Betemit, Jed Lowrie, Ben Zobrist, etc.  I also think young guys Erick Aybar and Asdrubal Cabrera aren’t available.  That leaves:

Rafael Furcal – Obvious fit, but not necessarily available; if he’s not, the Dodgers have a great prospect in Chin-Lung Hu blocked, but he bats righty.  What would it cost to get Furcal – if Hu continues to establish his batting value (.393 OBP right now), maybe the Cubs could offer Mark DeRosa and a reliever.  Given all the Dodgers who aren't hitting right now, I just don't see them trading the one who is.

Orlando Hudson – Extraordinary defense, but I have some concerns about taking his bat out of AZ and then how it will translate.  If the D’backs decide they need pitching depth, there might be room to work something out here.  Given Stephen Drew’s inability to hit LHP, Ryan Theriot might make some sense for them.  Maybe Marquis + Theriot could get it done, but not now and only if they run into pitching woes.

Maicer Izturis – For him to be available, Erick Aybar has to keep hitting, Howie Kendrick needs to figure out how to stay healthy for more than a few weeks at a time, and the Angels have to feel confident that they have the depth behind Aybar-Kendrick-Figgins.  But Izturis should be able to provide solid defense and an OBP over .350 in a SS platoon with Cedeno/Theriot.  His cost should also be moderate.  (Oh, and in case you're wondering, I don't think Chone Figgins is available for any reasonable offer.)

Kelly Johnson – I heard reports in the off-season that teams were asking about Johnson, but I never heard the Braves were shopping him.  So, the Braves need pitching depth.  Would they do Sean Gallagher for Johnson straight up?  If they think Lillibridge and/or Prado can take over at 2B, they may very well do that.  Johnson was a SS, btw, before being an OF, before being a 2B.  I think this has a chance of happening.

Felipe Lopez – Horrendous defense and after two years of OBPs over .350 (2005-2006), he’s now working on two years in a row of OBPs under .325.  I think if Hendry wanted Lopez at all, he’d have him by now.

Brian Roberts – Not much to say here than hasn’t been said before.  I’ll add this, though, if Pie wasn’t available before, he may be now.  John Perotto reported at Baseball Prospectus on Sunday that Lou was fed up with Pie.

Let’s not rule out that Hendry’s scouts see something in a veteran who looks cooked to us (Jose Vidro, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel).  He did it with Kendall last year.  Still, I’m not counting on any value from those guys.

Poll
Which TOOL would you most want to see in a Cub uniform (given the relative trade costs)?
  • Rafael Furcal
  • Orlando Hudson
  • Maicer Izturis
  • Kelly Johnson
  • Felipe Lopez
  • Brian Roberts
  • I don't want a TOOL and Lou needs to get over this lefty obsession.
  • Why make a trade at all - we're rolling!
  • Don't write off those unproven prospects - I want one of them.

  100 votes | Results

0 recs | Comment 40 comments | Add your comment

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I don't think...

...there is any question, it’s likely the Cubs will be in the market for a top of the order guy (lefty) who can play SS, 2b or CF. How badly that need will be, will be determined in the next month or so.

You also don’t know whether another starter may be a priority as well. Bad performances and or injuries in the next 20-30 games could determine what Lou feels about his staff.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 28, 2008 11:17 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

As for the starter

I think the Cubs have enough depth at pitching that they’ll be fine there. If a shut-down starter becomes available, the Cubs should pursue, but otherwise, go with one of the Seans and/or Lieber.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 11:38 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Don't forget

Khalil Greene, he may be available if the Padres continue to suck, according to MLBtraderumors. The site said that any team would have to send back a good, young SS in return. Hmm….

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Apr 28, 2008 11:21 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

I think there are a lot of good RH SSs that may be available,

but I believe the Cubs are only in the market for a lefty bat (a Top-Of-the-Order-Lefty, “TOOL”). I would ask this, though – how much do you think Greene would be an upgrade over Cedeno, given the additional trade cost involved?

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 11:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

That's all unsourced speculation on their part.

And teams with a good, young SS are the ones least likely to need Greene.

In a fire sale, you have enough moving parts that you simply try to maximize your value. This is sheer spitballing on my part, so don’t read too much into it – it’s simply for illustration purposes. Say the Cubs want Greene, and the Padres are having the Big Tent Sale at the break – they could maybe get that done for Pie and one of our various pitching prospects, I dunno.

Then they deal, say, Giles or Wolf or some other piece to another team that nets them a shortstop.

by cwyers on Apr 28, 2008 11:38 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Furcal...

will be a rental IMHO. He’s in a contract year that has him at age-31 coming off a 3 for $39M; which is why he took that deal instead of the Cubs’ 5 for $50M…another big FA score at an age 2 years younger, 31 instead of 33. I just don’t see his OBP staying anywhere near that high plus he’d be looking for similar per/year salary after 2008? The Cubs can spend their big bucks elsewhere….like a starting pitcher.

I certainly won’t give DeRo for these types of parts, even Roberts though I’d like to see what DeRo could do at SS to get Roberts and his excellent OBP and speed at 2B; he [DeRo] may be too far out of his element to consistently field well at SS.

I’d have to be given a solid fit (decent OBP and natural SS) to give Marquis near term because its this time of the season he does better, UNLESS Jimbo has a plan-B solid starter to get in the rotation, a guy better than Marquis. And no, Lieber or Marshall are not that solid starter IMHO that the Cubs would need to get at least through the NLCS.

Izturis would be an interesting fit and trading for him will mean the Cubs aren’t dealing to an NL opponent. But how desperate are the halo’s?

Lopez? No way…too low OBP and not enough D.

Hudson? AZ isn’t dealing him unless they’re blown away and I just don’t think Jimbo will do that.

Johnson? I see a fleecing by the Braves if that happens. Not that he isn’t that good but the Cubs would be duped into giving up too much.

by blackhawk24 on Apr 28, 2008 11:48 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

Good response

Furcal and Hudson both would be rentals, but both should be Type A FAs.

As for Marquis – I still think that Lieber can match him start for start over a whole season and I’d trade him in a deal for any of these guys not named Felipe without blinking.

Here’s a question about Kelly Johnson – compared to what we know is the high price of Brian Roberts – who do you think you get more for given what you pay for? PECOTA has KJ being worth $16 mill in 2008, and 14.5 in 2009 & ‘10. Roberts is at $17.25 in ‘08 and 16.3 in ‘09.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 12:13 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I can't really speak to that question

for one major reason, what PECOTA projects their worth in the coming years. Are those amounts in US dollars? Guess the dollar has really taken it on the chin these past few months. :^)

It’s hard for me to take something like that site serious when those projected amounts are more than D-Lee, a guy who hits for average, power, OBP and IMHO the best defencive 1st baseman in MLB.

I’ll go with you on the Marquis vs Lieber comment; that’s fine. If Hendry can back-fill his position in the pen that’d be even better.

by blackhawk24 on Apr 28, 2008 1:27 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

That's in US dollars

and that’s fine if you don’t take PECOTA seriously – even the best projectors are wrong an awful lot. I just use it as a guidepost when considering players’ values longer-term.

I guess what I’m really asking is – would Kelly Johnson end up being worth more than Brian Roberts, especially considering a lower pricetag, even with the fleecing?

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 1:45 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Probably not

I’d give only the age advantage to Johnson. For a team to win now, the price tag in dollars won’t mean as much. The real asking price is return players.

Roberts I give the batting edge in he’s a switch-hitter. He’s also a much greater stolen-base threat than Johnson. Fielding is a little better for Roberts also. BA, OBP, SLG and OPS are fairly close for the two guys.

If it’s a LHB only and speed doesn’t matter (to which I personally say BS, speed matters a lot to me) then Johnson would be the guy they’d pursue in a couple months.

by blackhawk24 on Apr 28, 2008 2:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Kelly Johnson

is not available, according to the last report I read that quoted Frank Wren. Bobby Cox absolutely loves him, so it would probably take at least Lilly to pry him loose.

He last played SS semi-regularly in AA - before TJ surgery on his throwing arm - so DeRo would be a better SS option anyway.

Also, KJ does not have the speed that Lou craves in a lead-off hitter - he might steal 15-20 bags in a healthy season. Bobby Cox, like Terry Francona, craves OBP in the lead-off spot - KJ is ideal for Bobby, but not Lou.

IOW, KJ brings only a slight amount more speed (and similar power and OBP) than DeRo. If Lou won’t put DeRo in the lead-off spot, why would he want KJ?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Apr 28, 2008 12:18 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

I should add

that Bobby Cox used DeRo in the lead-off spot whenever Furcal wasn’t in the lineup—a sure sign that he values OBP more than raw speed in that spot. (Furcal has both OBP and speed.)

Lou is simply in love with speed, speed, speed—which neither DeRo or KJ offer in sufficient quantities.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Apr 28, 2008 12:22 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Lou likes to...

...stay away from the ultimate rally killer (double plays) when at all possible. To put these guys in motion, you have to have a reasonable chance of them swiping the bag if the hitter happens to swing and miss.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Apr 28, 2008 12:25 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yeah

There were some revealing quotes in a recent Bruce Miles article about how the Cubs are getting more slide-steps from the pitchers and more FBs called by opposing Cs. Fwiw, on a different subject, I think this is why Lou sees Soriano hitting 2nd with a speedster on at 1st and Lee giving him protection, it would conceivably maximize the # of FBs Soriano sees.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 12:47 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Why KJ?

Simply because he’s lefty. It is an interesting question I’d like to see someone ask Lou – if he could have a choice between a speedy hitter and a lefty hitter at the top of the lineup – which would he prefer. I’m assuming that the presence of Fontenot so often at the top of the lineup tells us it’s the lefty part.

Thanks, though, for a good perspective on this particular scenario.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 12:42 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If Maicer Izturis is so good...

... why did Erick Aybar replace him in LA?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 12:47 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

Maicer v. Erick

Aybar has a higher ceiling and had a hotter start. At the beginning of the year they said the two would split time evenly. They may end up going back to that once Aybar cools down (and now that Maicer is heating up). Though Aybar has a .346 AVG, his OBP is only .350. That may be a problem – even for the Angels – if his AVG drops back to .300 and his OBP is only .305-.315.

And it’s not like Maicer Izturis is really, really good. He doesn’t excel at anything. He’ll hit a few doubles and be able to steal some bases, but he’s not a speedster or a real power source. Maybe a good way to describe him as being like Eric Patterson, but with better defense and already settled into hitting ML pitching. Maicer’s not someone you look to acquire if you have Brian Roberts and Rafael Furcal already, but he’s better against RHP than both Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot and that makes him worth something to us.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 1:03 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Again, just a marginal upgrade.

What’s the point?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 1:08 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I wouldn't call it marginal

Ryan Theriot’s 2008 numbers are deceptive because he does very well against LHP. When you’ve faced a lot of LHP (as we have this year) his overall line looks good, despite the fact that he makes a ton of outs against RHP.

For his career, he hits .331 OBP and .358 SLG v. RHP against a .393 OBP and a .462 SLG v. LHP. Izturis will give you at least .025 points of OBP and .050 pts of SLG against RHP compared to Theriot.

But it’s not a straight comparison to Theriot. I think this is where everyone is missing something when we debate Brian Roberts trades and such. Lou is looking to put a LH bat in one of the two first lineup slots and he’d run out there and do it himself if he batted LH. So, the real question is – would you rather have Maicer Izturis batting 1/2 or an assortment of Mike Fontenot, Felix Pie, and Eric Patterson?

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 1:25 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

This is crazy

None of the players on the aforementioned list are likely available. And if one or more does come available then the asking price will be the moon.

If the Cubs are to make a move sometime this summer then it will no doubt be for pitching.

by MDBNIU on Apr 28, 2008 2:45 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

YES!

It’s who’s available is what counts the most. Who knows which team(s) will fall the hardest and what player(s) will be available.

The whole idea of this diary was to discuss middle IF’ers.

IMHO the Cubs need another top-end starter to win the WS. I’m not sure it’s all they need though.

by blackhawk24 on Apr 28, 2008 2:56 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yep

I continue to believe we are one quality starting pitcher short. Finding that pitcher on the open market is going to be enormously difficult. And of course we have the dilemma of what to do with Jason Marquis and his fat contract.

I know that Rich Harden is scary to contemplate. But if he comes back relatively healthy from his latest arm malady then I bet the Cubs contact Billy Beane at some point. Who knows. Maybe a package of Sean Gallagher and Felix Pie can net Harden. Of course acquisition of him comes with HUGE and ridiculous risk given his arm history. But there is no doubt he is a primo deluxe power pitcher when healthy.

by MDBNIU on Apr 28, 2008 3:09 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yes he is primo

BUT, Jason Marquis IS more valuable than Harden

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Apr 28, 2008 3:12 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hey you get the right starter...

the Cubbies can eat his contract IMO. The Bucs ate Morris’s fatty.

Calm down.

by Kinky Reggae on Apr 28, 2008 3:26 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I know that Rich Harden is scary to contemplate. But if he comes back relatively healthy from his latest arm malady then I bet the Cubs contact Billy Beane at some point.

Yes, and if I was a hot dog, I would eat myself. What does that have to do with people who might play baseball in 2008?

by cwyers on Apr 29, 2008 12:10 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

LSA

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 29, 2008 3:46 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Availability

We know Roberts and Lopez are available for the right price.

Furcal and Hudson are in the last years of contracts and therefore theoretically available for the right price, although in each case I admitted the unlikelihood of them being traded.

There’s been a lot of buzz around Johnson, but I don’t think he’s really available.

Maicer is expendable to the Angels and it seems like when the Angels have two switch-hitting SSs and the Cubs have 2 RH SSs, that there might be room for a swap if the teams were motivated.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 3:35 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Ugh on Lopez.

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 28, 2008 3:44 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'd take Cedeno over Lopez any day of the week

Him vs Theriot is basically a wash – they’re frighteningly similar players. Lopez has been better in the past, but not recently.

by Wreckard on Apr 28, 2008 4:05 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Why do you think Theriot and Cedeno

are similar?

I agree that Cedeno is clearly better that Lopez; but Cedeno is clearly better than Mike Fontenot, too. And yet, against RHP, Lou keeps playing Fontenot. One way or another the Cubs will be playing a TOOL in July. If we’re lucky, Eric Patterson will explode and win playing time without our trading away talent to get that TOOL. If we’re unlucky, Jim Bowden fleeces us for an OBP sinkhole and a defensive nightmare.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 4:18 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Okay the obvious answer is Furcal (1), Robert (2) Vizquel (3)

Yes if the Dodgers do not sign Furcal before June 30th he will be traded. The cost will not be as high as one will speculate in that it will be considered a rent-a-SS, where the bidding will be only escalated by those who might have an injury.

Who would be a suitor?

Not many teams, for my scanning of contenders are that they are pretty set at SS. Furcal would fit all the needs the Cubs want, LH bat, speed, better defensive SS. Dodgers would not want a SS in return, nor would they want a CF’er (hahahahahahaha they got 2!)

They would want pitching which the Cubs would have. Yes it would be a deal for a rental lead off hitter but then what is the market for Furcal in the off season.

Roberts….This could fit into the floating starter for DeRosa and leave the Theriot/Cedeno at SS where DeRosa would not lose playing time in his new supposed role.

Vizquel….if none of those acquired Vizquel could be had for a song and a dance and also some batting practice balls.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Apr 28, 2008 5:25 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

I just wanted to say that i absolutely love the acronym TOOL. Awesome.

If the Furcal rental is as cheap as you say Ivy (he does have a fairly massive contract), I’d be up for that, Type A’s are pretty clearly a good deal when you can get them. I’m against trading Gallagher in general though, would he cost Gallagher+? Or with Colletti’s veteran love do you think we could dump Marquis and give them some of our top lower-level pitching like Ceda. They do have Kershaw coming up soon, so they might want a veteran…you know how the Dodgers are.

by Canseco's Roid Party on Apr 28, 2008 8:35 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

I think the only way we'd get Furcal

is if they wanted DeRosa to play 3B and we were willing to give him up, and even then they might be more likely to trade Hu, who’s not a TOOL.

by DGU on Apr 28, 2008 10:11 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Bobby Crosby

He could be had, but at what price?

"When you have a fat friend there are no see-saws, only catapults." --Demetri Martin

by Reddevil on Apr 28, 2008 8:39 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

if not a middle infielder

then why not kenny lofton for a lefty rent-a-leadoff?

by doug dascenzo's change-up on Apr 28, 2008 11:49 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

There are all sorts of options if you look for a TOOL OF

and perhaps that deserves another fanpost, but I’d like to see Felix Pie and Reed Johnson continue to get their PT. Re: Kenny, in particular, if Jim Hendry wanted him, I think we’d have him by now. Kenny may be making some strong contract demands for him not to get signed at all.

by DGU on Apr 29, 2008 7:29 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Right, and let's say the Cubs sign Lofton...

...somewhere’s around the trade deadline. Great—now the team has an aged outfielder who will essentially be taking his spring training hacks in the heart of the season. No thanks.

I still think Pie just hasn’t gotten a fair shot yet this season. I’m not saying Reed Johnson should be benched—far from it. But I don’t think Felix has given the team adequate evidence to give up on him. He’s still making great defensive plays (see: that throw to third during the Nats series), and though his bat is unproven, it’s still not necessarily unreliable.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 29, 2008 10:14 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I totally agree about Felix

- he’s nowhere near the point that a smart team gives up on him – and he’s been doing better in the opportunities he’s had since the coaching “Surge.”

by DGU on Apr 29, 2008 11:58 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs


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