So why is Soriano hitting leadoff again???
by someguy132 on Apr 3, 2008 2:38 PM CDT
Email
PrintI thought it was clearly established that OBP was a key component to success at the top of the lineup. So I dont understand why its a good idea to put 2 of our 3 worst onbase guys at the 1 and 2 spots.
I stole these numbers from the ZIPS projections at baseballthinkfactory.com (good place, and only place for free projections!) and granted these are projections, but they have some obvious things here.
1.Soriano is a high slugging, low on base guy. probably not great for leadoff?
2. Theriot is just not cut out for the top of the lineup. numbers dont lie.
3. Generous projections for soto,eh? hope that works out.
|
|
|
as constructed currently, i would say that it would make sense to put the line up as above. but if we got roberts, we could slot him up at the top and bump everyone down. thoughts?
on another note, is it just me or does aramis look like he is a dead pull homerun hitter right now? it looked like he was swinging way too hard.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
43 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
For the answer to this
Please see 1 out of every 3 posts for the last 12 months. Thanks
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
Thank you.
This was discussed at length again yesterday.
The bottom line is, Soriano hits better leading off than he does hitting in any other position. Thus, he helps the team more by doing that.
Finally, TTTSNBN is NOT happening, so let's get past that.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Ever?
Can we quote you on that at the trading deadline?
Soriano should hit 5th. Period.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Apr 3, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Because a certain player
hits better in a spot in the line-up doesn't necessarily mean it helps the team. It should be what is better for the team because the last time I checked baseball was a team sport. They will again continue struggle to score runs again this year as this line-up is constructed..
But it DOES help the team...
... because this certain player's production is better at that spot than at other lineup spots.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I tend to agree with you...
...but with the current group of players Piniella has, it just isn't a situation that is easy to deal with.
At this point, I'll throw up my hands and say go ahead and put Soriano back at leadoff and let him just play, especially if he can steal bases now. On that point, I think all this concern about his legs, may have been a smoke screen. Anyway, the club does not have a legit leadoff hitter and that is just the way it is. At some point, Fukudome has got to be put in the 2-hole, and when that happens, I will like how the lineup looks a lot better.
At some point, Soriano is going to have to be a productive middle of the order guy. Whether that happens later this year, next year or the year after. If that doesn't happen, I really feel his contract is going to be an issue.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
First off, sorry about the roberts thing.
First off, this was a post I made a while ago on my personal blog; thought i would bring it over for some other thoughts. So my bad about the roberts thing.
I dont understand how todays game shows he should lead off. if youre talking about his walk (a rarity) with the bases loaded, he would get more of those opportunities at the 5 hole...... if you remember, pie and dempster struck out before him. so usually that will end the inning, except in the rare bases loaded, no outs situation.
if youre talking about the steal he got before theriot drove him in, he would have scored from first anyways. hes fast enough for that. thus the benefit of a steal in that situation is diminished. furthermore, would you rather send soriano if lee was batting (assuming theriot didnt drive him in, which will happen) or if soto was batting. id say the cost of a steal opportunity is greater when lee is batting, since hes a better hitter.
soriano is a 5 hitter, whether you like it or not. and if hes a 5 hitter, chances are he leads off the 2nd, while also not being after the pitcher's spot, if you really want that
There have been many people who have used many examples
to show that Soriano is a better hitter when he leads off. I can't think of too many off the top of my head and I really don't feel like trying to find them even though it really isn't hard to find. There is one stat I can think of and that is the fact that last year the Cubs lead the NL in 1st innings leads. That would most likely not be the case if not for Soriano leading off. Is he this mythical "prototypical" lead-off hitter? No, but he gives the Cubs early leads and puts them in a position to win the game early on and that is an incredible asset.
I say did you see today's game because Soriano obviously feels more comfortable leading off and that spells better results for the Cubs, as we saw today. Are the Cubs going to win every game where he leads off? Obviously not. Plus, batting him fifth will give him less AB's, which is something I don't want personally. I really don't see why chances are he will be leading off in the second in the 5 hole.
Soriano is a lead-off hitter, whether you like it or not. I think Kosuke is a #2 hitter and that would give Lee and Ramirez plenty of opportunities to drive in a high OBP guy. But that is another matter.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
soriano is a 5 hitter, whether you like it or not. and if hes a 5 hitter, chances are he leads off the 2nd
He's a #5 hitter by the numbers. But in the real world, where numbers aren't everything, he's a #1 hitter. Whether we like it or not.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 3, 2008 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Loud, sustained applause.
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
hey, lookit!
My first LSA! :D
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 4, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I guess it doesn't make sense, but whatever...
I'm assuming there are supposedly more experienced baseball minds out there on the field than me, so I'll grin and bear it.
I guess I see this about the Cubs and just shake my head and brush it off, because as a fan, technically I'm an extension of the front office, right?
Here's an example... The Cubs have a perfectly above average centerfield prospect in Felix Pie, so what do they do? Instead of putting him in the lineup and experience some growing pains, they go out and try to find someone to platoon with him, usually a FORMER above average centerfield prospect that's around 35 years old. Why not give Pie a chance, right? This was the chorus on this blog for months about Pie...
So why not give Soriano a chance to adjust to batting 5th, where he could inflict some serious damage. Give it a chance for a few months. If it looks like it doesn't work, then at least we gave the numbers a chance to prove themselves, just like Pie.
Hector Villanueva's Career Stolen Bases: 1
well, to an extend, I agree with you
I wanted to give Pie a chance against lefties. However, platooning him with Johnson means fewer vulnerabilities, not more.
Moving Soriano to the 5spot and leaving him there to adjust effects our run-production negatively. This year, when we're trying to win it all, isn't a year to have our leading hr hitter trying to adjust to a new batting spot. We NEED the runs he gets, even when they're solo home-runs.
He's obviously maturing as a hitter -- he took a bases loaded WALK yesterday. If the unthinkable happens, and we're out of contention early (please, no), then yes, move him around, give him the time we need to adjust.
At the moment, tho, we need to WIN.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 4, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
This should answer your question
07-308/345/924 with 33 HR and 69 RBI when batting lead off
06-294/368/956 with 39 HR and 81 RBI when batting lead off.
The better Soriano hits, the more it helps the Cubs.
Since you're taking a beating
on Roberts, I'll comment on your second point. It does seem like ARam is pulling off right now. When he's at his best he's hitting effectively to right center, as well as pulling the ball. It will come...
Soriano should hit 5th. Period.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Apr 3, 2008 5:23 PM CDT reply actions
Short answer:
Because Lou didn't use the computer as you did.
You will keep reading the myth that Soriano is better as leadoff, which is contrary to baseball common sense, but the fact is there is no real leadoff hitter in this ballclub, except Fukudome, once he -as expected- establishes himself as a legitimate major league hitter. That doesn't make Soriano a legitimate leadoff hitter, though. It just shows a deficiency in this ballclub.
In the meantime, I repeat : Career wise, Soriano is more productive hitting lower in the order. He hasn't done it often for other reasons, like his team's weaknesses (e.g., Yankees and Cubs lacking a legitimate leadoff man). Those teams decided to take advantage of Soriano's speed. But with Texas and the Nats, Soriano batted 5th at several times. His numbers were:
5th: 583 AB, .268/.312/.513, 107 RBI
Soriano's value is his slugging and RBI's. Batting lower in the order maximizes that. Batting leadoff takes advantage of a speed that is diminishing with time.
I don't care wht the guy likes. He wouldn't bat 1st in my team, but this isn't my lineup. It's Lou's. And after today's victory I don't expect any changes to the lineup in the immediate future. In any case, batting 2nd is no solution either.
So, like you probably do, I'll keep fuming at home every time I see Soriano leading off, knowing how much more he could accomplish down in the batting order. I'll just root for the guy to do as much as he can leading off.
Soriano's career AVG with RISP
Is .252
You want to put a guy who can't hit with RISP in an RBI slot? Really? You do? Really?
Do I wish it was different? Yeah, it'd be nice to put a 30+ HR guy in the heart of the order. But it is what it is, he doesn't perform well in RBI scenarios. Let him hit where he'll produce.
I'm tired of people thinking he NEEDS to hit the middle of the lineup. You may want him to be a run producer, but he just aint.
And I thought it was an awful idea for him to hit 2nd, and I'd really like Fukudome at 2, but we'd need another lefty who can hit 5th. I hate to say it, but I wish Roberts were on this team.
by WittyUserName on Apr 3, 2008 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...
...If Roberts were on the team, don't you think Soriano moves down to the spot you say he can't hit?
I wish Roberts were on the team as well, but I do think you need to see what Soriano can do lower in the order, and maybe the fact that he is more mature, he will handle the adjustment better.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
and when he's moved down to 5th
and he stinks the joint up, then what?
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 3, 2008 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's my take...
...if he is that fragile, where his talent goes out the window hitting 5th vs leadoff, then at least you know you are basically stuck with a guy who hits 30+ homers a year, makes 18 mil per, but can only do it hitting leadoff.
Let me ask you this, do you want Soriano leading off for the Cubs for another 5-6 years? Remember, he has a no-trade clause and I'll guarantee his contract will be a nightmare if he can not be productive lower in the order in the next year or two.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I kinda thought
we knew that already -- that he's a guy who hits 30+ homers a year, in the 1 spot, making $18 mill a year. Baseball salaries are already so absurd, I'm not sure $18 mill registers as any worse, really, than the money we owe Marquis.
I don't know why his contract becomes somehow worse with that then it was yesterday. We agreed to pay it, one way or another. If the choice is to pay him while he sits on the bench, or pay him to hit lead-off for the next 5-6 years, I pick the latter.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 4, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
You can pick the latter...
...but even forgeting about the money, I am not so sure that would be the best thing for the ballclub.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
perhaps.
but it's what we got. If you want to talk trade, then fine, let's talk trading Soriano; but you better have a hell of a replacement. Until we trade him, we need to put him in the place where he produces the best, not where we wish he would produce the best.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 4, 2008 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions
First of all...
...they gave Soriano a no-trade, so any team dealing to get him would have to work through him and his representative and the Cubs would probably have to pick up some of the dough.
I am not wanting to trade Soriano, but I do want Hendry to make it a priority to strengthen the top of the order. Clearly, he tried to but couldn't get it done, so I would assume that both he and Piniella, probably feel Soriano is not best at the top of the order either.
The good and the bad that Soriano gives you was there for all to see before the Cubs signed him, and if they honestly thought he would be their leadoff guy for the long term, they made a big mistake, IMO.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
No
I always thought that if Roberts was acquired, that the lineup would be:
Soriano
Roberts
Lee
Ramirez
Fukudome
Soto
Pie
Theriot
P
Which would have been very much to my liking.
I've never thought that Soriano shouldn't hit in the #1 spot. I could live with him hitting 5th since he's got a history of being OK there, but I'm much more concerned about his AVG with RISP that I'd rather see him stay at lead-off.
I don't understand why people keep saying 'he'll learn to hit lower in the order'. That has NOTHING to do with the fact that he can't hit with RISP. It has nothing to do with the protection he receives. Was Theriot protecting him last season? It's the fact that when there are runners in scoring position, pitchers will refuse to give in to Soriano. When there's no scoring threat, you don't want to pitch him out of the zone too much with breaking stuff and risk giving him a free base. Whereas when there are RISP, you have no interest to give him anything in the zone that he could do damage with, he might still get himself out with a K, but you don't want to give in and give him a pitch that he might be able to handle.
Soriano isn't a versatile enough hitter to learn to be selective in those RBI scenarios, and will always try to hit pitches that he should let go. This is rarely an issue when the bases are empty, or there's only a runner on 1st, because pitchers won't be dancing outside the zone as much.
I know he's only got like 500+ ABs hitting 5th as a regular. But it's not like he's only got 500 ABs with RISP. For his CAREER, he's hit .252 in RBI spots, I don't like the idea of letting that guy be relied upon as a run producer.
by WittyUserName on Apr 3, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
What does "Bizam" mean?
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Hey Al - Can we ban...
.....this nonsense from taking up space on the site?
I'm sooooooo sick of this discussion.
Soriano produces better in the one-hole, he likes it, his best numbers are there, and that's that. PERIOD. Folks need to understand that just because a guy has power like Soriano doesn't mean he's going to do well with RISP - it's clear that he isn't as comfortable hitting with men on base as he is with no one on.
Please, let's move on.
TEAM = MVP
I'm with you
It's one thing if we had a legitimate leadoff hitter, but we don't. So if it makes Sori more comfortable and it makes the Cubs better, i'm all for it. He's not blocking a true leadoff hitter so let him lead off and let the Cubs reap the benefits.
exactly.....
....and the fans who think he's capable of putting up the same numbers in the 4 or 5 hole, or anywhere else in the lineup, need to just L E T I T G O O O O! There are limitations on even an all star's talent and for sori, it just so happens to be his comfort zone in the lineup.
TEAM = MVP
by southerncubbie on Apr 4, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
not exactly.
"I enjoy the game, batting first, batting third," Soriano said. "If I'm in the lineup, I enjoy the game. I don't like to not be in the lineup. I like to play every day. If you're in the lineup, batting first, second, third, fourth, five, I'm happy because I enjoy the game."
i'm sorry I provide a controversial point of view, but i dont feel im definitively wrong, and i dont feel that this is a situation that we should just "move on" from.
I'm with ya...
...and I don't buy the whole "he will fold like at tent" in the 5-hole.
Anyway, this isn't going away and the Cubs are going to have to deal with it for real before long.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I'm not going to ban this discussion...
... just roll my eyes when I see it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Strong feelings...
...on both sides of this issue Al. I guess time will tell whether it is something that needs to be addressed on the field.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I agree
I'm all about results. I don't like Soriano in the lead off either but he seems to put up the best #'s there. I wish he could produce at any spot in the lineup but until that happens, i say leave him where he has produced until a better option comes along. I don't think you are wrong at all for your post.
How will he ever produce...
...in the 5-hole if they don't put him there?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
That's what I'm saying
I don't like Soriano in the leadoff. If we had a bonafide leadoff hitter, then I think Soriano will bat 5th. But until that happens, or until somebody can show they can handle the leadoff, I'd rather have him leading off where historically he is very good at times than for him to be hacking away in another spot. I agree with you though, Soriano should be batting 5th. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
happy because he enjoys the game
is basically what an employee says who doesn't want to get a bad rap.
Of course he's willing to bat 5th and not produce -- he gets paid either way, and he's doing what he's told.
WE have to be happy with what he does.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 4, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
How do you know he wouldn't...
...produce in the 5-hole?
Over his career, he has about 570 AB's in the 5 hole, which is basically a full seasons worth. His slugging % in that spot is .513, which is what you got from Derrek Lee last year in the 3 hole. If Soriano were to match that slugging % in back of Fukudome, Lee and Ramirez, I tend to think that would generate a heck of a lot more runs that he does leading off. Also, he is more mature as a hitter now, and may even perform at a higher level than the .513 he has put up before.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
because frankly
when he batted out of the 1 hold in ST and the first two (three?) games of the season, he stunk up the place. I think he's STILL trying to readjust to being back on top of the order.
I just don't think you mess with his head this year. He's still recovering from injuries, even if that recovery is mostly mental, and we've done a good job of strengthening the lineup with just Dome, and Johnson is a good CF option every so often.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on Apr 5, 2008 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Cubs By The Numbers
Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.
Click here to order your copy, available now!
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
