Open Thread: Cubs vs. Pirates, Monday 4/7, 12:35 CT
by Al
on Apr 7, 2008 8:45 AM CDT
in Game Threads
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs travel to Pennsylvania all week -- Pittsburgh, then Philadelphia, for three-game series vs. each team. Today is the Pirates' home opener, so expect a full house. They'll have nice weather this afternoon, too (sunny and 64).
The only real information of note this morning is that if the Cubs get into a 9th-inning save situation today, it'll be Carlos Marmol instead of Kerry Wood. No, nothing's wrong with Kerry:
"We're just trying to be a little prudent," [Lou] Piniella said.
A blowout win would solve this problem, right? The Cubs' three wins have been by three runs, two runs, and one run, respectively.
| Today's Starting Pitchers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ted Lilly was 1-0, 3.20 in three starts vs. the Pirates last year; in 19.2 IP he struck out 15, walked only three, and allowed only one HR (to Ronny Paulino in a game the Cubs won anyway).
Derrek Lee, who's hot right now, is 5-for-9 lifetime vs. Oak Lawn native Tom Gorzelanny (2 doubles and a HR). Otherwise Gorzelanny can be tough on the Cubs: 2-2, 2.60 in four lifetime starts. Expect Reed Johnson to start again in CF today, and here's a hint for Lou: start Ronny Cedeno at SS in place of the slumping Ryan Theriot. Cedeno is 4-for-7 in his career vs. Gorzelanny (one double).
I'm going to add this link to each day's game thread: the baseball-reference.com game preview, which has team and pitcher records and splits in one easy-to-read page.
TV today: WGN and FSN Pittsburgh; local radio, XM 183, and the MLB.com Mediacenter.
MLB.com Gameday (2007 version)
MLB.com Gameday (2008 version)
Discuss amongst yourselves.
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Reflections
1. Zambrano looks very strong
2. Impressed by start of Lee
3. Fukudome is worth the price of admission...an absolute delight to see him hit, field, run the bases, throw
4. Soriano is in my doghouse
5. Cedeno and Fontenot on the same bench isn't going to cut it
6. Looks like organizational faith in Pie isn't going to be as long as I would have guessed....he had better start proving semi-worth with the bat or he probably gets shipped back to Des Moines
7. Why is Ramirez throwing like that???? And will somebody get him to stop asap.
8. Love Soto, but apparently his offseason reading list included "How Not to Throw," authored by Jason Kendall
9. Milwaukee is for real
10. Don't look now but Dusty and Cincinnati all of a sudden have some VERY nice pitching
11. St. Louis is a mirage
12. I like Len Kaspar, but his call of the game has gone backwards....he picked up a case of anal retentiveness during the offseason
by MDBNIU on Apr 7, 2008 9:00 AM CDT 0 recs
we knew....
Milwaukee was good, they did just beat up on what might possibly be the worst team in baseball over the weekend....so there start is not highly unexpected.
All things great in 2008!!
by By Santo's Grace on
Apr 7, 2008 9:11 AM CDT
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wooo
deja vu.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
Apr 7, 2008 9:37 AM CDT
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agree on the bench
call murton up, send fontenot down. ronny can backup both short and second. we've already seen soriano play second once this year, if they get into a pinch he can always be used there. it's worth it to have a clearly superior bat on the bench.
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB
by kylejo on
Apr 7, 2008 10:01 AM CDT
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agree
Murton's bat makes it worth it.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
Apr 7, 2008 10:07 AM CDT
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Cedeno
I wish Ronny would see more time at SS. Theriot is OK out there, but Cedeno is obviously the more talented player of the two. I know he has his mental "shortcomings", but he swings a pretty good stick when he's not swinging at bad pitches, and he's slick out there in the field.
by rambler19 on
Apr 7, 2008 10:26 AM CDT
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A lot of 'ifs' for Cedeno...
I think the only thing holding Cedeno back is his head. He's more talented than Theriot. But he makes dumb mistakes. Piniella doesn't tolerate dumb mistakes from mediocre players. Theriot has a very low ceiling, but he doesn't make mental mistakes and comes close to maximizing his abilities.
I will say that if Theriot is kept to the bottom of the order then the possibility of Cedeno getting a chance becomes greater. If Piniella realizes that Theriot simply can't hit well enough at the big league level to stay near the top, then he may be realizing that Theriot is probably not an everyday player. If Theriot continues to struggle, Cedeno may get a shot.
Ultimately though, until Cedeno shows that he can hit consistently in the bigs and that he can avoid the mental errors in the field and on base. He's yet to show progress in any of those areas to date.
by SouthernCub on
Apr 7, 2008 11:59 AM CDT
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Eric Patterson...
has been knocking the snot out of the ball down in AAA. Give him a chance.
Hector Villanueva's Career Stolen Bases: 1
by IowaCubs- on
Apr 7, 2008 12:42 PM CDT
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I strongly dislike every thing you say
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on
Apr 7, 2008 12:23 PM CDT
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Road trip record
I know conventional wisdom says play .500 on the road but I really thing we need to take 4 of 6 on this trip. We have a little momentum with the past two games and we need to keep the Lee-Dome duo hot. Lilly needs to have a good game today to start a 4-2 road trip. Pirates have given us some problems, I hope there is no "relax" on our part today. Let's have a good one!
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
by mrcubsfan on Apr 7, 2008 9:03 AM CDT 0 recs
I'd say you mentioned the most important thing IMO
Lilly needs to have a good game. We absolutely need to see the Lilly of last year very soon.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on
Apr 7, 2008 9:45 AM CDT
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Me too,
but my point was 4 of 6 is the goal and sure beats going 3-3 after we already did that on the homestand. Win today and then we look to see if we can get all 6!
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
by mrcubsfan on
Apr 7, 2008 11:25 AM CDT
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Pretty good weekend of baseball...
happy to see Lee getting off to a torrid start and props to Fukedome for his seamless transition to MLB. Zambrano looks comepletely focused and hopefully Soriano starts to hit....
I am in total agreement that we need to pace Wood, so some blowouts are in order
You ARE freaking out MAN!
by crw89 on Apr 7, 2008 9:03 AM CDT 0 recs
Agreed on Soriano
He just hasn't looked good at all, yet. Even his solo shot yesterday was on a hanger that was about as big as a beachball.
I wish the coaches could convince him to stop pressing, stay within himself, and take good cuts and good pitches. :|
by Slim1256 on
Apr 7, 2008 9:21 AM CDT
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If I had time...
... I'd look through the comments from last April, when Soriano looked just about as bad (and got injured, too). I'm guessing I'd see quite a bit of the same kind of stuff.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 7, 2008 9:23 AM CDT
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The interesting part
is that statistically speaking, in terms of OBP, April is historically Soriano's best month, so maybe there is hope for him yet.
by gwood on
Apr 7, 2008 9:26 AM CDT
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Maybe.
He is 2-for-26 with one walk. BA .077, OBA .111
Let's say he goes 4-for-4 today; right away that'd bring him up to .200 BA, .226 OBA. You can move up quickly this early in the season.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 7, 2008 9:34 AM CDT
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Very true
and i hope that bears out.
His career stats for April at .309/.346/.511. His slugging either stays the same or gets better in the following months, but both his average and, more importantly, on-base percentage decline. His next best on base month is June at .338, otherwise he is at .321 or below.
by gwood on
Apr 7, 2008 9:43 AM CDT
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But...
The PROBLEM is that a Soriano who is in a rut has a big detrimental impact on the Cub offense overall. Hacking away, not making the pitcher work, not advancing the runner, striking out....key descriptors of Soriano in one of his patented bad patches. Cubs are paying Soriano to be a catalyst and a franchise player, not someone who is a hot guess hitter for 1 week followed by 2 weeks of nothing. Go ahead and shoot his opinion down all you want.
by MDBNIU on
Apr 7, 2008 9:37 AM CDT
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really?
Wow. Yesterday, the day before... guess that didn't happen...
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
Apr 7, 2008 9:38 AM CDT
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I pretty much agree with you completely
the even bigger problem though is that, at 32, what you see is pretty much what you're going to get with him.
by bluekoolaide on
Apr 7, 2008 9:46 AM CDT
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Here is my issue.
If the guy isn;t seeing the ball all that well, then at least open your swing to move runners over. Groundballs to the right side of the IF are not the worst thing ever with men in scoring position. What ever happened to that kind of baseball?
It is about being a solid, well rounded player like Dome is. Laying down bunts, executing properly, doing what it takes to win games. He is a great example of good, hard nosed baseball IMHO.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on
Apr 7, 2008 9:52 AM CDT
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Agreed.
However, Soriano is who he is. I think the Cubs well knew that when they signed him, or should have. He's VERY streaky. He'll have a month where he can carry this team. At other times, he looks awful.
This is no surprise to me.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 7, 2008 9:55 AM CDT
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I hear ya Al,
I tell ya though, and I know this season is only 6 games in but I said all last year, I AM one of the people who always thought we should have had CLee in LF, not Sori. I like Soriano but I see WAY more sonsistency out of Lee than Soriano.
You are most certainly correct that the Cubs knew exactly what they were getting. I do like him and know he will come around but it is this part of the season when it is easy to say things like, I always wanted CLee. I'm guilty.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on
Apr 7, 2008 10:05 AM CDT
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I agree with you.
But the fact is, we don't have CLee. So let's hope the guy we have breaks out of it soon.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 7, 2008 10:37 AM CDT
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Completely agree...
Soriano is who he is. And he's going to be here for the foreseeable future. We aren't going to have Carlos Lee playing LF. We aren't going to have ANYONE else playing LF. It's going to be Soriano. And it's probably going to be Soriano batting leadoff for the foreseeable future.
As such, the guy is what he is. He's a streaky hitter. He's going to hit 30+ HR. He's going to have an .800+ OPS. He's going to strike out over 125 times (probably 150). He's not going to have a .400 OBP. He may not have a .350 OBP. But for some reason, Piniella won't move him down to the #5 spot in the lineup, because both Piniella and Soriano are convinced that Soriano can't hit anywhere but leadoff.
by SouthernCub on
Apr 7, 2008 12:02 PM CDT
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Yeah, but Lee gives up a lot of his value...
...out in the field, where he's a liability at best. And Lee is going to be much more likely to just utterly tank near the end of his contract, even given that it's shorter. Pass.
by cwyers on
Apr 7, 2008 12:01 PM CDT
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If I am reading
that baseball-reference page correctly (and thank you Al for that link , it provides some great information all in one place), it looks like the Pirates as currently configured hit Lilly really well!
Could be a long day if Lilly pitches like he did in his last outing.
by gwood on Apr 7, 2008 9:07 AM CDT 0 recs
I would like to
retract this comment. I was reading the information wrong
by gwood on
Apr 7, 2008 9:10 AM CDT
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Pittsburgh
The Pirates are always tough on the Cubs. And Gorzelanny is one of the better pitchers in the National League that nobody talks about.
by MDBNIU on Apr 7, 2008 9:18 AM CDT 0 recs
Right. I don't have a good feeling going into this game.
Gorzelanny handles the cubs pretty well and with lily's missing fastball...hope I'm wrong but...
by bluekoolaide on
Apr 7, 2008 9:48 AM CDT
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cubs hit
.300 against him last year, im feeling confident for today.
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB
by kylejo on
Apr 7, 2008 10:05 AM CDT
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Call me crazy
But I'm kinda glad Johnson didn't hit anything yesterday. It didn't hurt the club, and it will make it easier for Lou to slip Felix back in the lineup the next righty we face. I'm hoping we'll see the Pie of ST emerge soon. I particularly think he'll stop pressing away from home when there's less pressure to perform in front of the home crowd.
That said, I hope Reed goes 4-4 today!
by 26.2cubsfan on Apr 7, 2008 10:02 AM CDT 0 recs
Crazy
Completely disagree with your logic. It's such a long season to think something like this would somehow help the team. I wish they both played well enough to challenge each other, then we'd have a good problem in CF. I do agree on Reed going 4 for 4 today though.
BCB; We have our own dictionary!
by tony412 on
Apr 7, 2008 10:07 AM CDT
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Yeah, I'm a bit torn myself...
I like Pie and want him to get his shot and Johnson is making things a bit hard for him and Lou I would imagine. I REALLY like Johnson, the way he plays the game, and his apparent attitude about being here in Chicago. I think we all have a real jones for CF to be solidified already. Oh, no back dated pun inteneded.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on
Apr 7, 2008 10:08 AM CDT
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4 Seasons from now you Pie
Lovers will still say he didnt get a shot. HE HAS A PLATE DISCIPLINE PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!! All of you Pie lovers think he will over come it with coaching and seeing more pitches. Has Soriano? NO. Pie is Soriano minus the power, swing, swing swing. 4 Ks in 15 ABs this year with 0 walks. That is not good, up and down this board for the past few years, players from Patterson to Jones have been ripped for their free swinging habits, but Pie is praised, he needs to be given a chance......Discipline could be the most difficult thing to teach a professional hitter.
Reed changes this line-up for the positive, no doubt about it.
"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"
by HIGGY on
Apr 7, 2008 10:37 AM CDT
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You're judging off 15 at-bats?
Geez. Give the guy at least a couple months before you give up on him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 7, 2008 10:38 AM CDT
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No not 15 -
192, that is his MLB ABs. he strikes out 25% of the time. Al that is not good. He only has 14 BBs!!!!!!! in 192 ABs, come on. I wish him the best, but at some point you have to realize that he is a free swinger with little to no discipline. His swing is too long for his speed, he needs to shorten it up and start seeing more pitches. I seriously want to see this guy succeed, i do, but if we are going to have Soriano in the line-up you cannot have Pie in there as well. Soriano through his career strikes out 22% of the time (walks 6% of the time). Honestly, you cannot have two gapping holes like that on a team.
The movie major league comes to mind.
"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"
by HIGGY on
Apr 7, 2008 10:44 AM CDT
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You're right, that's not good.
There are free swingers who have good ML careers (we have one in left field). I think you have to give him more time before you give up.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Apr 7, 2008 10:50 AM CDT
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I agree - and personally...
a poster below said he likes Reed coming off the bench more than Pie, i would agree with that. But honestly, i think Lou threw Reed in to see if he could get the offense sparked and rolling, i think we all know by now that this is a very streaky team offensively. Pie is great in the line-up when everyone else is hitting well (which during the week no one was except for my new man-crush Fukudome), so Pie in there is probably not going to be the best alternative, but maybe now that our guys are starting to hit a little more, Pie will find a place in the line-up.
"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"
by HIGGY on
Apr 7, 2008 10:53 AM CDT
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I believe it was me that said that about Reed off the bench.
I stand by that. All I am saying about Pie, is that we need to gove him a bit more time to either earn the starting role, or to know that he is not our long term solution. 192 ABs for the guy we have been viewing as our top talent in the system is not enough. A few hundred more ABs and we should know if it is time to move on. I don't love him, I simply love the idea of giving him a bit more evaluation before dumping him.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on
Apr 7, 2008 12:36 PM CDT
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Pie
I've long-stated that Felix Pie won't hit in this league. That being said the young man does deserve a suitable sample size of at bats to see what he can do against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately for him I think the Cub organization (to include Hendry and Lou) won't have a lot of patience. I originally thought he'd get at least 2 months, but now I doubt that.
by MDBNIU on
Apr 7, 2008 10:47 AM CDT
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Read my post above...
With this line-up they cannot afford to be patient. Sad but true. Spending money usually means - must win now.
"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"
by HIGGY on
Apr 7, 2008 10:48 AM CDT
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It won't much matter in the final analysis
Whether the Cubs stay patient or not won't impact (in my opinion) the end result. Felix Pie isn't going to hit in this league. He's yet another in a line of toolsy can't miss outfielder prospects from the Dominican who looks to me like he will miss. See Alex Escobar and Ruben Mateo for comparisons. If history is any gauge then Jim Bowden of the Washington Nationals will take a low risk flyer on Pie after he burns out as member of the Cubs.
by MDBNIU on
Apr 7, 2008 10:54 AM CDT
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I can't agree more...
With our lineup construction we cannot afford to give pie an elaborate grace period. Comparing this situation with Dustin Pedroia and the BoSox is meaningless because the BoSox lineup is constructed completely differently from our lineup.
by cubsnlinux on
Apr 7, 2008 11:35 AM CDT
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two months
is not elaborate.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
Apr 7, 2008 11:36 AM CDT
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I am not saying that we *gave* him an elaborate grace period (though this is debatable)
I am just saying that with out line up we cannot _afford_ to give him an elaborate grace period.
by cubsnlinux on
Apr 7, 2008 11:52 AM CDT
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WEll you played in College so this MUST BE TRUE
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on
Apr 7, 2008 12:26 PM CDT
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You also have to realize that
Pie has the minor league track record to show that he is very capable to be a big-time ML hitter (something that C-Pat did not have). At the age of 23 and the track record he has, he needs to be playing CF darn near everyday. Thats the only way you're going to be able to accurately judge where he is/can go as a player.
Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man
by sheamcmurray on
Apr 7, 2008 11:00 AM CDT
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Lou talked about
starting Hank. Soto's doing some clinics on throwing with his hips, isn't he?
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
Apr 7, 2008 10:09 AM CDT
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But Lou also said Soto will start again today.
Soto needs to anticipate the steal. When the runner goes the catcher should put his feet in position to throw to the base, before he catches the ball. Then he gets up while aiming the ball and throws. if he delays doing one of those things by fractions of a second, the runner likely will be safe.
Soto used to be good at doing that. It may be nervousness, as Lou said. I think it's a weight problem. A few extra pounds will make it harder to move while crouching and harder to get up. And Soto looks heavier to me at the start of the season compared to how he looked last year. I expect him to slim down as the season progresses, though.
by Fraggin Judge on
Apr 7, 2008 10:25 AM CDT
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I think so
I'm just trying to figure out how to set my fantasy for the day
by miamicanes on Apr 7, 2008 10:11 AM CDT 0 recs
LOL
I have Lilly and Gorzelanny in my rotation.
"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome
by JohnM on
Apr 7, 2008 10:23 AM CDT
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Haha
See, I have a problem with playing my fantasy players that are matched up against the Cubs (I have Gorzelanny as well and won't be playing him today).
I just don't like having a player better my team at the expense of the Cubs. Then again, maybe this is why Im never any good at fantasy ; )
Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man
by sheamcmurray on
Apr 7, 2008 11:03 AM CDT
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Edit
That was supposed to read "I have a problem with NOT playing"
Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man
by sheamcmurray on
Apr 7, 2008 11:04 AM CDT
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Frankly, I'd be ok with a platoon
I have absolutely no problem platooning Pie and Johnson. Having one position on our team where we don't have 1 established starter isn't the end of the world, and they do both have their strengths.
Frankly, in a perfect world, I'd have Johnson start every day. However, Pie's development is one of the keys to success in the future. And I'm not only saying success in the future years, I'm saying the last months of this season. So platooning, and having the young learn from the old will only help our team.
.... Edit #3: We're gonna go 159 and 3 this year, I can feel it!!!
by Beaushek on Apr 7, 2008 10:13 AM CDT 0 recs
Here's why I do have a problem with a platoon.
johnson seems to have no problem as of yet, stepping up off the bench. pie OTOH, is the type of player who will require the 500 ABs to establish some successful track record. I cannot be sure of this but he needs the regular work IMO.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on
Apr 7, 2008 10:16 AM CDT
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I do completely agree that he needs regular work...
However, he doesn't need regular work encouraging bad habits. So.... HOPEFULLY, Pie will learn from a smart (but not as talented) veteran, and use it to encourage his problems to become good habits. Then, we make him the 100% starter, and his good habits become his normal playstyle.
.... Edit #3: We're gonna go 159 and 3 this year, I can feel it!!!
by Beaushek on
Apr 7, 2008 10:20 AM CDT
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agree
it should be a straight platoon, with maybe johnson facing the tough righties like he did against oswalt. pie cannot be left forgotton on the bench again like last year, the team needs to give him his chance, and his defense is good enough to warrant everday play the way the rest of the lineup is constructed.
Aramis 5 BB - 2 K, he's come close before, I'd love to see a season from a Cubs player with more walks than strikeouts.
by kylejo on
Apr 7, 2008 10:16 AM CDT
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I really think that, for Pie to be successful...
the rest of the Cubs offense will need to start to click.
If we're putting up plenty of runs, the (perceived) pressure will come off, and Pie can focus on building good habits, instead of pressing to produce.
If we're playing in one run squeakers all the time... he'll never relax and just work on stroking the ball.
by Slim1256 on
Apr 7, 2008 11:36 AM CDT
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Nicely said.
n/t
"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"
by HIGGY on
Apr 7, 2008 11:39 AM CDT
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Good point.
n/t
"Chicago baseball fans, who are composites of scar tissue and mortifying memories..." - George F. Will
by eswan9 on
Apr 7, 2008 11:40 AM CDT
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I agree
we really don't want a repeat of last year's horrible start, so carrying Pie and waiting for him to hit while you have Sori, The Riot and A Ram scuffling at the plate could be conducive to low run production and losses piling up.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on
Apr 7, 2008 12:34 PM CDT
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Hoping for a sweep!
It's my birthday today! :D All I'm looking for is some old styles and a Cubbies 'W' Lets get over .500
by Lou In Blue on Apr 7, 2008 10:28 AM CDT 0 recs