The Soriano Absence Leadoff Myth
by BeltwayCubsFan on May 1, 2008 10:06 AM CDT
46 comments
Despite all of the rhetoric surrounding the Cubs offense Post-Soriano, it seemed to me that our leadoff hitters weren't doing as well as the public perception. So I crunched the numbers, and sure enough, here are the results:
13 games with Soriano and 13 games with him out and someone else batting leadoff:
BA R RBI
Soriano .175 (10-57) 7 5
Others .155 (9-58) 10 4
I'm not a fan of Soriano batting leadoff, but I don't think that the offense is better off with him out, which seems to be a notion that some actually entertain. As the stats above indicate, there have been many reasons the Cubs offense has been rolling, but performance out of the leadoff spot isn't one of them.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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thanks
for those numbers because I was curious about the same thing. I believe Reed Johnson should be leadoff and not Soriano, Theriot, Fontenot or anyone else. But you are exactly right, Soriano as leadoff is just as BAD as everybody else, just slightly better
"God will squeeze really hard, but he will never choke you" - Carlos Zambrano
by SouthsideCUBSfan on May 1, 2008 10:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The difference here, though,
is that we have plenty of good reason to expect Soriano to do better over the course of 150 games. Alfonso Soriano will not hit .175 for the rest of the season.
by DGU on May 1, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right . . .
. . . we expect him to regress to his career .325 OBP. Which is why the scientists tell us he shouldn’t bat leadoff.
by MikeIowa on May 3, 2008 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice stat
hopefully this will help people realize that although a high obp in a leadoff hitter is niiiiice…sometimes its ok to do things unconventially. thats what fonzie does, and he is going to hit better than THAT for the year. He’s gonna own it when he’s back.
"I'll play any day. I don't care if I'm 0-for-30, playing baseball is my PASSION. I'll go out and play." - Geo Soto
by CubbyBlues on May 1, 2008 10:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm.
You’re probably going to get some sample size objections, but I think this might be worth keeping track of throughout the season, especially if Lou moves Sori around in the order.
Personally, I’d like to see Dome leadoff, Derosa hit 2nd, and Sori hit 5th.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on May 1, 2008 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sample size works both ways...
Soriano is not going to continue to hit .175 in the leadoff spot. In fact, compared to the guys who have been hitting leadoff for the Cubs, he’s likely to drastically outperform them over the course of a relevant sample of at-bats.
I agree with your lineup suggestion, though. But for some reason Piniella is fixated on having a LH bat in the middle of the lineup, even though it appears Fukudome is more of a slap-hitting OBP guy.
by SouthernCub on May 1, 2008 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One question.
What’s the OBP for the others?
Not disputing your point, by the way. The mantra I’ve adopted for resolving this issue in my mind is as follows:
Alfonso Soriano is not batting leadoff. He’s hitting first.
Repeat this thrice hourly and you’ll start to feel better.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2008 10:25 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
I’ll go to my grave thinking that if Soriano is not going to be a patient hitter and no longer steals lots of bases, then he needs to move down in the order and be a run producer. But I’ve seen enough numerical evidence to resign myself to the fact that he is most comfortable, and thus, most productive hitting at the top of the order.
So my way of rationalizing Soriano’s shortcomings is to figure out who is the best leadoff hitter on this team – and then put that person in the second spot. Looking up at the scoreboard today, it became crystal clear who that should be when I saw our #5 hitter hitting .347 but with only 10 RBIs. Yes, like many others on this site, I want to Dome to bat second, but not because he’s a great #2 hitter, but because I think he’s our best leadoff hitter. So in my mind, after the first time through the lineup our #2 hitter becomes our de-facto leadoff man.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on May 1, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree.
I’ve changed my mind again about this. I may be calling this a little early, but maybe it’s time to put Soto in the five hole. Move Dome up to second and leave Soriano batting first (but not hitting lead off).
And, once again, I just broke my promise to myself that I’d stop discussing lineup construction.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
by dat cubfan daver on May 2, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP
Soriano 11 games .269
Johnson 10 games .352
Fontenot 3 games .182
Theriot 2 games .286
Patterson 1 game .000
Soriano 11 games .269
Others 16 games .Help me out with the math here, weighted by games played
by TC Cubby on May 1, 2008 10:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Correct?
Soriano, 11 games .269
Others, 16 games .2898
I’ll need someone more stat savvy than myself to say whether this is a significant difference over 27 games
by TC Cubby on May 1, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a group it's .185 AVG and .284 OBP...
That certainly isn’t significantly better than Soriano’s .269 OBP (it’s about one or two times on base difference).
However, it’s important to note that this is heavily skewed downward by the games in which Piniella foolishly went with Fontenot and Patterson at leadoff. Looking at Johnson’s stats alone, the story is much different: .237 AVG and .369 OBP.
That is substantially better than what Soriano had done. Of course, the question is whether that would translate to a larger sample. Soriano is not going to continue to have a .175 average and .269 OBP. He’s going to get up into the .340 OBP and .280-.290 AVG range. I also suspect that Johnson’s OBP will drop to around .350. In which case, Soriano is statistically fine at leadoff.
by SouthernCub on May 1, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson's overall OBP may hit .350,
but his OBP v. RHP will be lower than that. Even now his OBP v. RHP is at .340. Johnson and Theriot make great leadoff hitters vs. LHP.
by DGU on May 1, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
the difference in number of games from above is that Soriano did not lead off for all 13 games he’s played—Theriot led off for the first two games of the season.
All numbers from baseball-reference.com; all mistakes in transcription and mathematics from TC Cubby
by TC Cubby on May 1, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His absence was a myth?
I really need to get my cable back so I can watch these games.
by Arbusto on May 1, 2008 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: leadoff
You are right TC Cubby, Soriano didn’t bat first for all of his 13 games, but for the purposes of comparison I was more trying to get at what his successors had done rather than a breakdown of Soriano’s stats at different slots in the lineup.
OBP is also important, obviously, but I put in the Runs category because ultimately what good is OBP if you ain’t scoring? Long story short, I stick to my original point which is that Soriano being out of the leadoff spot is not the main factor behind the Cubs offensive surge.
by BeltwayCubsFan on May 1, 2008 11:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The leadoff spot hasn't been the main reason...
The main reason has been the emergence of Soto and Ramirez, the continued success of Lee, and timely production from Cedeno. The rest has been pretty consistent.
by SouthernCub on May 1, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the chicken and the egg with a more obvious answer
How are you going to score runs without getting on base?
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
by snley on May 2, 2008 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah and just imagine
if we had brian roberts in front of everyone
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on May 1, 2008 11:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Muhahahhahhahahhaha
"Just because you've had enough/ doesn't mean you wanted too much." -Dean Young
by Kegler on May 1, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Roberts, eh? Hm, interesting. I'd never considered it.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2008 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's add this myth as well: The Myth of the Speedy Lead-off Hitter
I think it is also a myth that there are all these high OBP speedsters out there just waiting to be a better leadoff hitter than Alfonso Soriano. Last year, ther were only 10 hitters with OBPs over .360 and over 25 SBs. They were:
David Wright .416/34
Ichiro Suzuki .396/37
Reggie Willits .391/27
Grady Sizemore .390/33
Hanley Ramirez .386/51
Brian Roberts .377/50
Rickie Weeks .374/25
Bobby Abreu .369/25
Willy Taveras .367/33
Curtis Granderson .361/26
As far as I know, only one of those is available by trade.
As long as Lou wants someone with speed at the top of the lineup, there aren’t that many hitters that are better than Soriano.
by DGU on May 1, 2008 12:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would love
having a real base stealer on the team.
Theroit trys but ehh, Dome has ok speed, Cedeno has decent speed, Pie has speed if he can get on base. Soriano will you ever become that 40/40 man again?
My 08 Cubs record 4-0
My 08 W.Sox record 0-2 (I havent seen a sox win in 3 years)
Updated April 26th
by Rudey on May 1, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are plenty of speedsters available
We could have Juan Pierre for a song. The problem is that a speedster like Pierre will have a lower OBP than Soriano, so what’s the point. We have one of the best base-stealers leading off, er, batting first.
by DGU on May 1, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry. No healthy legs anymore.
n/t
by Fraggin Judge on May 1, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only 10? It's not a myth, really
That’s a lot. That’s 1/3rd of the rest of the entire league, not bad. There’s reasons why some teams suck, not having a good leadoff guy is one of those reasons.
For a position that is somewhat available for the Cubs, the fact they need a L-handed batter, higher OBP and fast, it stands to reason why Jimbo was trying to do what he was doing.
It’s the combination of attributes (you know who) can bring to the club is what is intriguing; not just one of them.
by blackhawk24 on May 3, 2008 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get your point, and respect it, but how did you crunch the numbers?
I decied to check it out a little myself, and here’s what I found:
Theriot has 9 ABs in the #1 spot, and is batting .222 with a .222 OBP and 0 RBIs
Fontenote has 19 ABs in the #1 spot, and is batting .158 with a .158 OBP and 2 RBIs
No offense to these guys or anything, but thet’re going to weigh down the stats if you lump them together with Johnson (I don’t know if anyone else has batted leadoff this year).
Meanwhile, here’s Johnson’s line out of the #1 spot:
Johnson has 41 ABs in the #1 spot, and is batting .220 with an .340 OBP and 3 RBIs
Not stellar, his AVG is low and his OBP, while good, is not exactly leadoff.
So yeah, I think you’re right, the idea that “anyone is better than Soriano in the leadoff spot” is inflated, but lumping all our leadoff hitters together isn’t fair, especially to Johnson, whose OBP is much higher than the others, and to Theriot, whoe numbers in the #2 spot are stellar.
I agree with you that the lineup is better with Soriano, And, I agree with you that Soriano shouldn’t bat leadoff, Beltway.
The ultimate solution to leadoff may not have been found. Except, maybe, for dat cubfan’s mantra:
Alfonso Soriano is not batting leadoff. He’s hitting first.
I’ll try.
by Snake Plisskin on May 1, 2008 12:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm no stathead
I took Soriano’s obp from the leadoff position straight up.
For the others, I took their obp in the lead off spot, times the number of games they led off, and then averaged that number. If I did that right, it should be weighted to take into account the number of games played by each.
So, Theriot/Fontenot/Patterson’s poor obp weighed in for six games out of sixteen, not three players our of four.
As I said, all stats are from baseball-reference’s splits. I used the obp by batting position splits—as I understand it, that calculates all the stats when that player leads off the game, not when they lead off an inning. We must have different stats, as I don’t think Fontenot batted 19 times in the three games that he led off.
by TC Cubby on May 2, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep trying, grasshopper.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
by dat cubfan daver on May 2, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Runs?
What is the split in Runs scored?
Runs scored + RBI to me is more important than BA or OBP.
by chitown_ray on May 1, 2008 12:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty bad way to evaluate anyone
Let alone a lead off hitter, let alone with such a small sample size.
Runs and RBI’s depend on other players hitting you in or getting on base. They’re about the worst stats you can use to compare individual player performance.
by Wreckard on May 1, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you kidding me?
It is about run production. You want someone who produces runs leading off. I doesn’t matter if it is via the RBI or via a run scored.
BA & OBP are overrated stats.
I will take run production every time.
by chitown_ray on May 1, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No he or she is not kidding you...
Runs are the ultimate goal, but calculating runs scored for a player is a pretty poor predictor of how likely they are to score runs in the future. Runs are a TEAM DEPENDENT stat. OBP is an INDIVIDUAL DEPENDENT stat.
For example, Murton has 4 RBI in 14 AB. That’s a fantastic RBI rate, which would qualify him as a good run producer. The problem with that logic? He is actually hitting very poorly so far (OPS under .500). The reason he has 4 RBI is simply that he’s had lots of opportunities in those few AB. Conversely, Fukudome has only 10 RBI in 98 AB, despite hitting over .300 and having a .900 OPS. The reason? It’s largely because he’s hitting behind Lee and Ramirez, who’ve hit a bunch of HR and have a bunch of RBI.
You don’t score runs by yourself unless you hit a HR. What you want out of a leadoff man is someone who can give the team more chances to score runs. The way you give your team more chances to score runs is to get on base more often. That’s why OBP is actually a better predictor of future runs scored than past runs scored.
by SouthernCub on May 1, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's throw this idea out there -
If Soriano wasn’t going to bat first, then wouldn’t the best lead-off man on the team right now look to be Ronny Cedeno?
Cedeno has twice as many walks this season in half as many games as he played in last season.
by DGU on May 1, 2008 1:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be the highest OBP
SouthernCub said it pretty well. Highest OBP in the first two slots (IMHO) is the best way to go. The more they’re on base for the power guys the better. And here is where the SB comes into play. If a pitcher has to always be concerned whether or not a runner will go, that will come into play with how they deliver to the power guys. They’re more inclinded to miss their marks when speedy / high OBP guys (wonder who I could be talking about here) in front of them.
by blackhawk24 on May 3, 2008 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but not the right conclusion...
...Fukudome would do far better at lead off, and anyone with a hot hand is okay as a stopgap. I’d rather see Derosa bat leadoff than Soriano. Johnson and Theriot are playing well for now, I doubt that they’d keep it up but I could accept them in the top 2 if Fukudome were also in the top 2. Soriano and Fukudome should trade places in the lineup starting tomorrow.
by DudeVf11 on May 1, 2008 8:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I gotta admit...
...I kinda like this idea, too. If (I mean when) Dome gets on base, Soriano’s tendency to strike out could actually be a good thing, because pitchers tend to get him on breaking balls in the dirt—perfect pitches to steal on.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
by dat cubfan daver on May 2, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just realized I misread your post.
I was thinking if Dome bats leadoff and Soriano bats second, then Dome would have more stealing opportunities because pitchers would try to get Soriano to strike out on breaking balls out of the zone. If Lou insists on batting Soriano first (not leadoff!), I would like to see this:
1. Soriano
2. Dome
3. DLee
4. Aramis
5. Soto (he’s earned it, no?)
6. DeRo
7. Pie/Johnson
8. Theriot/1Dec.
9. pitcher
Otherwise, sure, why not—just flip-flop Dome and Soriano right now.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.
by dat cubfan daver on May 2, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could care less if he leads off at this point..
I wish he could just hit and not play LF.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on May 2, 2008 8:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Brian Roberts
THERE…. I said it.
Beating a dead horse, I know.
If we continue to have trouble with production out of the leadoff it is in our best interest to go out and get this deal done. As long as it’s not too much of an asking price.
Sorry I rehashed it.
The Time Is Now. [Chicago Cubs, '08]
by EJThunder on May 4, 2008 1:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
soriano
you could always put kosuke 1st and bat fonzie behind a-ram.you have to protect ramirez.kosuke does,nt seem to have a lot of long ball power so it would make more sense to have sori who could hit 35 hr,s bat 5th.
by NOMAR on May 4, 2008 8:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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