What it takes to win now
by DGU
on May 13, 2008 9:55 PM CDT
Lou Pineilla said "We're not in a rebuilding situation here -- we're trying to develop and win at the same time, but we're not in what you would classify as a developing situation. To win, you try to put out a lineup that has a better chance of winning every day."
This is the question - How do modern baseball teams win?
We can look at the two teams in the World Series last year, the Red Sox and Rockies - both stuck with struggling rookies and were rewarded with a stronger team in October. Also among winning teams last year that employed the same long-term strategy - the Padres, the Brewers, and the entire Diamondback squad. For each of these teams developing prospects in the major leagues was a crucial part of their success.
We can also look at the Indians who stuck with Josh Barfield, trying to develop him. In his case, it didn't work out, but their investment did not keep them from making the playoffs.
This year, the Red Sox are sticking with struggling prospects in their rotation, the Indians are sticking with a new struggling prospect at 2B. The Rays are sticking with Evan Longoria despite his growing pains. These teams get it.
On the other hand, there are the panic moves of teams who discard their prospects for Proven Veterans. These teams invariably come up short. The Dodgers are a prime example. They blocked James Loney with Nomar Garciaparra. They blocked Matt Kemp with Juan Pierre. They blocked Andre Ethier with Andruw Jones added on top of Juan Pierre. They blocked Andy LaRoche with Nomar Garciaparra. Where has it gotten them these past few years? They have been and remain a middling team.
The Jays have given up on Adam Lind now twice, two seasons in a row. They are a middling team. The Mariners blocked Adam Jones last year and Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien this year. They finally figured it out as they watched Proven Veterans Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson flail away, DFAing the latter and cutting the playing time of the former.
Lou Piniella has taken us down the path of mediocrity. He thinks it leads to winning now. It doesn't. Smart, winning baseball teams get this. Lou doesn't. He says, "To win, you try to put out a lineup that has a better chance of winning every day." But that is short-sighted. To win, you try to develop the lineup that has the best chance of winning in the playoffs.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Agree with the post for the most part.
But Hill, Pie and Cedeno are different situations IMO.
Hill needed to go down to find the K zone. He hasn’t. Pitchers are different, especially starters.
Cedeno…what can you say? Theriot’s been hot.
Pie: needs to play consistently, at least vs. RHP. CF is a defensive position and he’s our best defensive CF. As long as he’s not hitting .150, why panic-sign what’s-his-name?
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
by Bildo1805 on May 13, 2008 10:08 PM CDT 0 recs
Yeah - I agree they're different situations.
And I’m really not sure what to make of Rich Hill’s situation. Hence the “or” in the vote above.
As for Cedeno, I think he’s earned spelling Theriot once a week, especially for the nights when our pitchers who need the best defense are on the mound. And I can’t figure out why Cedeno is behind Fontenot on Lou’s depth chart.
by DGU on
May 13, 2008 10:14 PM CDT
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Cedeno
When it comes to Cedeno he has warranted playing time over Fontenot. I’ve read reasons for this that Lou feels Fontenot earned it in Spring training to Theriot having some say considering his hot hitting. Regardless, Cedeno deserves to play 2nd base right now and perhaps even play for DeRosa who really hasn’t done much as of late.
by ak123 on
May 13, 2008 10:19 PM CDT
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Dodgers
On the other hand, there are the panic moves of teams who discard their prospects for Proven Veterans. These teams invariably come up short. The Dodgers are a prime example. They blocked James Loney with Nomar Garciaparra. They blocked Matt Kemp with Juan Pierre. They blocked Andre Ethier with Andruw Jones added on top of Juan Pierre. They blocked Andy LaRoche with Nomar Garciaparra. Where has it gotten them these past few years? They have been and remain a middling team.
See that team has made mistakes, because they had young players actually hit at the major leagues and do well. Yet they brought in Pierre, then Jones and even resigned Nomar. That would be like the Cubs last year bringing in another catcher, even though Soto showed he can hit. I’m a big fan of Pie, but there’s no doubt he’s been a bad major league hitter when he has gotten a chance to play so far. Looney had a 900 plus OPS, in his first 102 AB’s in the majors but they still resigned Nomar. Matt Kemp hit 342 with a 894 OPS in 292 AB’s last year yet they still brought in Andruw Jones. Ethier hit over 300 in almost 400 AB’s in 06, but they still signed Juan Pierre. If the Cubs did that kind of stuff I would scream. But honestly they haven’t really done that, unless you count replacing Soriano or Fukudome over Murton, but both of those have been upgrades.
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 5:02 AM CDT
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That's a valid point
although in LaRoche’s case, they have blocked him without seeing ML production.
by DGU on
May 14, 2008 7:17 AM CDT
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You have an agenda, that much is clear
Look, you are one of the flock that subscribe to the theory that all wondrous prospects cranked out by the Cub farm system are destined for major league success. Well sir, they’re not.
Rich Hill was a severe liablity and threat to bullpen sanity via his presence in the rotation. He is a two-pitch pitcher who couldn’t get his money pitch, the curveball, over the plate. Cubs and Rothschild worked with Hill since the first week of spring training when the problem with his control manifest itself. Hill is taking his mail in Des Moines right now because he needs intensified help at getting his pitching repetoire and psyche back on track. Not hard to understand the logic at work here.
Ronny Cedeno has played. His dilemma is that he is number two on the depth chart to a sparkplug shortstop with a .410 OBP and an extremely underrated veteran 2nd baseman. So what do you suggest Lou do differently? Call a team meeting and announce that the popular and productive Theriot shall be thrown under the bus in deference to Cedeno? Please.
Felix Pie has been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere. Suffice to say the Cubs, Piniella and his staff have made enormous investment in this young man’s hitting with very poor results to show for the effort. Cubs are trying to win a pennant, not live with an automatic out in the lineup under the shrinking belief that Felix Pie might meagerly pan out down the road.
If Lou is such a stubborn crumedgeon then how do you explain the arrival and success of Geovany Soto and Ryan “Mr. 410 OBP” Theriot ??
Mr. Towers, tear down this wall (er, I mean give us back Greg Maddux) !
by MDBNIU on May 13, 2008 10:22 PM CDT 0 recs
I've responded to every one of these points in other forums, without reading a response in return.
(except for the Rich Hill points, because I don’t know what to think about Hill.)
It’s a strawman to say I expect every prospect to succeed. In my post above I mention the Indians who saw Josh Barfield bust and how they still went deep into the playoffs last year despite an investment that did not pay off. It is altogether possible that the Cubs could invest in Pie and he would not pay off. But they have not invested regular ML playing time in him. They simply have not, no matter how many times you repeat the company line that Lou has made him his pet project and they have coached him more than a shaky witness in a TV trial. Say Pie does not turn out after regular playing time for the next month – well, then we can trade for David DeJesus, Randy Winn, or any other number of lefty CFs. But each of those guys – and Jim Edmonds is included in this – cannot offer us what Felix Pie can offer us if he reaches his potential.
I’m not going to repeat Cedeno arguments, but I will repeat my answer to you about Soto. Soto started hitting from the moment he hit the big leagues. Lou’s only alternative to playing him was Henry Blanco. How is this a feather in Lou’s cap that he keeps writing Soto’s name on the card? There are prospects who need no time to acclimate themselves to the majors and there are prospects who do need that time. It is not inconsistent to argue that Lou Pineilla who needed no time to acclimate himself to the majors can coach prospects who succeed immediately like he did without being able patiently to coach prospects who do need that time.
by DGU on
May 13, 2008 10:36 PM CDT
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DGU....come good subject but admit you have an agenda
Now let us go back to your premise and why the macro evaluation does not carry weight when we start speaking of specifics of individuals.
The biggest question you pose is regarding the development of Pie. Now let us define a couple of things, for one it is great the Cubs sometimes exaggerate the potential of their prospects as to influence the potential scouting of others and also inflate the expectations for the paying customers. More specifically Pie is a good defensive OF’er, although he still has much to learn. Hitting he is not there, period and if he were playing for a low payroll team the Modus would be to let him learn on the job. But he is also pressing and even an uneducated observer can see him swinging at balls traveling 58 feet or a foot above his armpits.
So parsing Lou’s words is that he wants a veteran CF’er. Ironically there is a rumor or thought coming out of Colorado that they might be interested in moving Brad Hawpe because they got a bigger stick in AAA who plays 3B and they could platoon Spiel in RF and put in Taveras or Pods in CF. This might be the best answer in that Hawpe could be had for a handful of prospects although it might cost Cedeno at least, probably a pitcher or two. Fukudome would move to CF and Hawpe in RF. Just a thought.
Now Cedeno, summer hasn’t even come yet. Theriot is not the best but he is better than Lugo…as long as he hits and gets OB he is not going to be replaced. Cedeno is blocked for now, although he had his opportunity.
Finally Hill. Hill was not right and was getting worse. He had to get corrected.
So we are back to Lou and bashing.
Since June 1st his record is 17-11, 17-9, 12-16, 17-12, 17-10 (include March) and now they are 6-5.
This is 86-63 (..601 ball). One losing month since June 1st, I think Lou see’s that this team is on the cusp of being the best team in the NL. One more offensive piece who can play solid D and he has a club that could be in the WS.
what is missing, actually another stud on the mound and they got it.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on
May 14, 2008 1:18 AM CDT
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Very well said
n/t
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 14, 2008 8:36 AM CDT
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Perhaps because
he receives very limited AB’s so he feels like he must do something spectacular in each AB or he’ll see the bench for another week?
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
May 14, 2008 8:57 AM CDT
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Bingo!
Nanika Ga Okoru!
Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.
by dat cubfan daver on
May 14, 2008 9:04 AM CDT
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Pressing may or may not...
...be the right term here, depending on what is going on inside Pie’s head (which none of us know).
At the very least, working on swing changes can cause one to think a bit too much and reduce reaction time. This is part of the pain you go through when you make swing changes, until they become second nature under game conditions. It’s not unlike a golfer trying to revamp his swing. Usually, they go through quite a bit of short term pain until they get it ingrained. A few years ago, Tiger Woods revamped his swing and he didn’t win for a long stretch. With Pie, no one knows whether he will be able to make the changes permanant, but I think he is best trying it at AAA.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 14, 2008 9:53 AM CDT
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And as for an agenda -
are you serious? I have a viewpoint that I feel strongly about. YOU have trouble understanding that?
by DGU on
May 13, 2008 10:39 PM CDT
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Yeah, let's not get carried away with this word "agenda."
We ALL have an “agenda”—that’s to voice our opinions on what we believe would be the ideal construction of this Cubs team. Insinuating that someone is trying to “slip one by” the reading community only muddles the discussion at hand.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.
by dat cubfan daver on
May 14, 2008 9:07 AM CDT
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Ugh please read before you repeat yourself yet again
You are one who decides based on first impressions and rarely change your mind. This has become obvious in you impressions of Soriano, Pie, Cedeno and of Theriot, Edmonds, Reed Johnson. Instead of looking at stats and trends, you hear and know of Edmonds past glory without looking at the trends. You see Theriot’s hot july last year and start this year without seeing his non july/minor league numbers in years past. You see Reed Johnson’s start and decide he’s a grinding good baseball player without looking at his current or past stats. Instead of seeing Pie and Cedeno’s more credible stats, their longer and more consistent minor league stats, you see wildly inconsistent and very youthful major league stats.
Hill is not anymore of a liability than Marquis is. Hill obviously had command in 2007, so maybe he should be given a chance to regroup. But you know, I also can’t disprove your view, so I’m not going to argue that Hill shouldn’t have been sent down. However, tell me the logic in keeping Marquis in the rotation. Why did Lilly get a chance to regroup? I am reallly having difficulty understanding Lou’s logic here, despite what you say. Hill had a good 2007 with command and dominating minor league numbers. There’s a track record, just like Lilly and Marquis. Now why do the latter two get a chance?
Ronny Cedeno has not played. I don’t see how you can say he has actually played, in the sense of getting a chance to prove himself. He has been overtaken by Fontenot, for no reason. Cedeno has more potential than Theriot. Cedeno is hitting better than Theriot, even with more sporadic plate appearances. If Cedeno has better potential and is hitting better, why shouldn’t he play? He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. Okay?
Now, what do you mean by enormous investment into Pie? Its not much of an investment when he is benched all the time. His longest string of starts is 9. This year it is 4. He has not received any amount of “investment”. The Cubs are trying to win a pennant, not trying to develop a 30 year old bench player who has gotten off to a hot start. Realy the choices are Johnson, Pie or Edmonds. Pie certainly has the most potential of the 3. Pie is also the best defensively of the 3. Edmonds has a trend of declining. Johnson has a trend of not being good enough to start a full season’s worth of games. Pie has a trend of not being used consistently in the majors while consistently improving in the minors ahead of his age. Really, that is Pie’s only trend we can give credit to. He has not been given a chance to start or show anything. You just can’t look into his numbers until he has been given many consistent at bats. Pie’s trend is really the only not-bad choice. In Pie’s case, we don’t know although the minor league numbers certainly point him to being favorable. In the others, it points to them not being good.
And you’re logic on you last point sucks. Lou is a “stubborn crumdegeon” because he has not allowed th young player to play when they have struggled while letting veterans play even when they are struggling as well and in many cases actually have a consistently less than average track record. Soto and Theriot have NOT struggled.
by ecbc on
May 13, 2008 11:42 PM CDT
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Oh boy
Instead of seeing Pie and Cedeno’s more credible stats, their longer and more consistent minor league stats, you see wildly inconsistent and very youthful major league stats.
Hint Hint, minor league numbers, don’t make you good major leaguers. Koyie Hill hit 322 in Triple A last year to. If he was 24, I guess fans would be calling him a stud prospect who needs his playing time. I never understood when Theriot/Johnson subpar major league numbers, made them worse then guys in Triple A hitting over 360. Thats the biggest mistake fans make these days, they see a young guy hitting 350 and think he’s a lock to hit well in the major leagues. Or think they should start over mediocre players because they should out hit them. Thats just not all baseball works and never has worked. In all honestly alot more guys hit well in the minors and become really bad major league players then good ones.
Hill is not anymore of a liability than Marquis is. Hill obviously had command in 2007, so maybe he should be given a chance to regroup. But you know, I also can’t disprove your view, so I’m not going to argue that Hill shouldn’t have been sent down. However, tell me the logic in keeping Marquis in the rotation. Why did Lilly get a chance to regroup? I am reallly having difficulty understanding Lou’s logic here, despite what you say. Hill had a good 2007 with command and dominating minor league numbers. There’s a track record, just like Lilly and Marquis. Now why do the latter two get a chance?
What your not getting is Hill has a fixable problem, and it’s a problem thats hard to fix in the major leagues when your trying to win baseball games. While Lilly problem early was just because he wasn’t pitching good and Marquis problem is he’s not just that good. Some fans aren’t getting that sending Hill down was in the best interest of him and to try to fix him. It wasn’t crap like well Marquis and Lilly are pitching just as bad why do they get a chance to stay in the rotation. Even Hill understands that and the Cubs told him that. Read this article
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=189946&src=152
Ronny Cedeno has not played. I don’t see how you can say he has actually played, in the sense of getting a chance to prove himself. He has been overtaken by Fontenot, for no reason. Cedeno has more potential than Theriot. Cedeno is hitting better than Theriot, even with more sporadic plate appearances. If Cedeno has better potential and is hitting better, why shouldn’t he play?
look at BA predictions for both this year
Ronny Cedeno: 278/326/422, .251 EqA, 13.3 VORP
Fontenot: 282/357/431, .267 EqA, 15.4 VORP
i know it might come as a shock since he’s a small white guy, but fontenot has always been able to hit (291/362/437/799 minor league numbers). plus he doesn’t have a disastrous full season under his belt at the major league level, so it’s no surprise that PECOTA favors him
He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. He has hit better than Theriot and has more potential. Okay?
I seriously wanna bang my head against the wall. Theriots hitting 331 with over a 400 OBP in a 145 AB’s. Cedeno is hitting 333 with a simliar OBP in 57 AB’s. How’s that hitting better? Daryle Ward hit better then Derrek Lee last year because he had better numbers even though he had less AB’s. Seriously what MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM benches a 330 hitter so a guy with more talent and potential can play.(especially when that player as struggled in years past) People have no right to ask for Theriot to be benched right now, seriously the guy is leading the team in batting average. BENCH HIM!
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 4:14 AM CDT
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Hill
Hill said his demotion has been easier to take because he knows Chicago has not lost faith in him.“They said, ‘It’s not a demotion (because) of performance, it’s just that we see that you need to work on some things, and soon as you get that figured out you’ll right back up here,’æ” said Hill, who is 1-0 with a 4.12 ERA in five starts for Chicago this season.
There’s been no timetable set for Hill’s return to Chicago, but both he and the Cubs are hoping it comes sooner than later. Of course, that depends on how quickly Hill can put his control issues behind him.
“We’re watching Hill’s progress really carefully,” Chicago manager Lou Piniella said. “He’s a kid we were counting on.”
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 4:20 AM CDT
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I don't disagree with you
but at some point, you have to let rookies play, or you end up with a team of Octegenarians. Like Edmonds.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
May 14, 2008 9:36 AM CDT
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oh boy
Hint Hint, minor league numbers, don’t make you good major leaguers. Koyie Hill hit 322 in Triple A last year to. If he was 24, I guess fans would be calling him a stud prospect who needs his playing time
Hint hint. Great minor league numbers at a young age point out that you have a lot of potential. Koyie Hill was not young. If he was 24 actually, yes, I would have said he is quite a prospect. Thats the entire point. Playing excellently at an age that is below normal shows an above average potential. I have never said that minor league numbers make a good major leaguer. I have said they point out more potential, thus making it more porbable that they will become good major leaguers.
I never understood when Theriot/Johnson subpar major league numbers, made them worse then guys in Triple A hitting over 360.
You admitted they are subpar, and this is true. Let’s remember this. Now why the hell do you want subpar starters? The young players are hitting very well in the minors. They are playing well above the normal production at their ages. This shows a better chance that they will hit well in the majors than those with subpar numbers like Theriot and Johnson in the long run, if not in the short. A young prospect should always play over below average starters. They’re below average, why do you want to be below average? if you have a below average starter, its time to try and replace him with someone better, if you have the options.
What your not getting is Hill has a fixable problem, and it’s a problem thats hard to fix in the major leagues when your trying to win baseball games. While Lilly problem early was just because he wasn’t pitching good and Marquis problem is he’s not just that good.
Um Lilly had a fixable problem too. As you can see, he’s probably fixed it. Hill also “wasn’t pitching good”. I don’t see it. Struggling is struggling. Walks and giving up no hits should be just as fixable as giving up too many hits. All problems are “hard to fix in the major leagues when your trying to win baseball games”. As for your point about being sent down was the best for Hill, I never argued against that. Thats debatable and I agree with both pros and cons of that. There are cons of sending him down though, it’s not necessarily perfect for him. But really, my point still stands, Hill has been randomly given a much shorter leash than Marquis or Lilly.
fontenot has always been able to hit (291/362/437/799 minor league numbers). plus he doesn’t have a disastrous full season under his belt at the major league level, so it’s no surprise that PECOTA favors him
Fontenot is 28. Cedeno is 25. That is definitely a difference that you have to learn to see. Cedeno’s only full minor league season came when he was 23! At that age, Fontenot was in AA ball. You can’t just say Fontenot has been great, because he was clearly much older and less developed than Cerdeno at each of his minor league stops. As for the projections, you answered them yourself. Cedeno had a disatrous 23 year old major league season. Fontenot didn’t get much of a chance to play in the majors. That’s why Pecota’s numbers are skewed. To use stats properly, you have to understand them. You can’t just cite Fontenot’s minor league stats and equate them with Cedeno’s. Thats why many people don’t take much heed to stats. People always use them to find correlation, but not always causality.
I seriously wanna bang my head against the wall. Theriots hitting 331 with over a 400 OBP in a 145 AB’s. Cedeno is hitting 333 with a simliar OBP in 57 AB’s. How’s that hitting better? Daryle Ward hit better then Derrek Lee last year because he had better numbers even though he had less AB’s. Seriously what MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM benches a 330 hitter so a guy with more talent and potential can play.(especially when that player as struggled in years past) People have no right to ask for Theriot to be benched right now, seriously the guy is leading the team in batting average. BENCH HIM!
Okay. So you say Cedeno isn’t hitting better than Theriot? .331/.410/.414 vs .333/.415/.491. Strictly speaking, Cedeno is indeed hitting better. If Daryl Ward had better stats last year than Lee, then yes, in his at bats, he hit better than Lee. However, we know Lee is better overall and has more potential. Thats why we don’t bench Lee for Ward, because we know it is much more likely that Lee will end up hittingbetter than Ward, not to mention the defense. However, in this case Cedeno has more potential than Theriot. Cedeno is also hitting better than Theriot. Therefore he should get a chance. Sure, if Cedeno didn’;t have more potential, then we would defer to Theriot as Theriot has consistently hit well so far. But Cedeno has shown much more strength AND is hitting better so far. PLAY HIM! Let us actually see what he can do as he has matured. Cedeno is leading the team in batting average technically. Also, Cedeno has a better glove, range, and arm. His only stupid mental mistake, the only thing he is worse than Theriot at, thus far this season has been that foul pop fly that he looked away from and dropped. And also, Don’t look too far into this season’s stats so far. It is still small for everyone. Cedeno’s is also still small, and I am in no way saying he is deinitely better, but he certainly has more potential and is hitting better than Theriot.
by ecbc on
May 14, 2008 7:11 PM CDT
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How dare you cite Ryan Theriot's OBP.
You D&D playing, sabremetric robot.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.
by dat cubfan daver on
May 14, 2008 8:56 AM CDT
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He's the king of small sample smackdowns.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on
May 14, 2008 8:58 AM CDT
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Rob Neyer on the utter insipidness of the potential Edmonds signing
Question: If there’s a decent chance that Edmonds can still hit, wouldn’t the Padres have kept him for a while longer? After all, they are last in the major leagues in scoring. Behind even the Giants.Of course it’s possible that the Padres made a mistake when they let Edmonds go. Every team makes personnel mistakes. Even the smartest of them. And while Edmonds probably isn’t much good any more, he’s probably better than his numbers with the Padres this season (.178/.265/.233). The Cubs need a platoon partner for Reed Johnson, so why not take a flyer?
Here’s why: Because the Cubs already have a left-handed bat who’s probably better than his numbers this season. Felix Pie is struggling, too, but he does have the virtue of being 15 years younger than Edmonds. He’s started only 15 games this season, and has played only 11 games from the first pitch to the last. It’s on this evidence, apparently, that the Cubs are ready to give up on a 23-year-old center fielder who batted .362 in Triple-A last season.
This just doesn’t make sense, at least not from 2,000 miles away (where I sit). Maybe there’s something about Pie that I don’t know. Maybe he’s not willing to work on his hitting. Maybe he’s taken to wearing women’s underpants in the clubhouse and his teammates have the heebie-jeebies. But from where I sit, it’s foolish to replace a young player who isn’t hitting with an old player who probably can’t hit.
15 games is hardly an “enormous investment”....its more like a blind date that didnt go well.
Felix Pie must play everyday!
by JB 23 on May 13, 2008 10:29 PM CDT 0 recs
it must be the women's underpants thing
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
by El Borto on
May 13, 2008 10:49 PM CDT
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+1
Just the thought of signing Edmunds gives me the “heebie-jeebies”.
"The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball"
by Bump Bailey on
May 14, 2008 11:47 AM CDT
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Here's what it takes to win now:
Beat washed-up, sore-armed pitchers like Shawn Estes, who’s backed up by the worst offense in the NL.
Now, the Cubs face Peavy and Maddux.
Brilliant.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on May 13, 2008 10:32 PM CDT 0 recs
it's gotta be the rain
in part, and just, you know, general odds.
I think we take it from Peavy, and give Maddux a ride. I think we win this series, and we go on to beat the Pirates, too.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
May 13, 2008 10:54 PM CDT
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When it comes to judging...
...how to field a team that gives you the best chance of winning everyday, Piniella is up there with the top 4-5 managers in baseball. After Dusty’s enemic talent evaluation, Cub fans should be thanking their lucky stars Hendry was able to scoop Lou up.
When they overpaid for Soriano, they were sending a message they wanted to win now. When they signed Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez to extensions, they also were saying they wanted to win now and you can add Fukudome in the mix as well. I don’t think there is a much better choice for manager, if you have a sense of urgency to win this year.
Lastly, given how Pie has looked at the major league level last year, and then his struggles this spring, I would bet many top managers would have chosen to have Pie start the year in the minors, and I think Lou may have been trying to appease Hendry a bit, by bringing him North to start the season.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 13, 2008 11:01 PM CDT 0 recs
I agree completely.
Lou is very good at looking at the game right in front of him and figuring out how to win it. He’s also good at looking at the week ahead of him and setting up good matchups. What I question is whether or not Lou can balance winning the immediate game with developing the team that is most likely to win in October and November. In fact, it is very possible that his desire to win the immediate game is one thing that makes it harder for him to play the long-term game as well as he might.
I also agree that the Cubs management is united in seeing a short-term window to win now. My question is if the unexpected emergence of Soto and Cedeno should have the Cubs looking to open that contention window wider.
I think you are right about the tension between Lou and Hendry on Pie. But my larger point is that successful organizations can stare ugly play from prospects in the face and say without blinking “We have confidence in you and we’ll show it by playing you regularly.”
by DGU on
May 13, 2008 11:11 PM CDT
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I understand...
...but what this really comes down to is Lou’s judgement. I also don’t think people give him enough credit for recognizing what Theriot could deliver last year, along with Marmol, when neither were proven in those roles. Lou obviously recognized something in both of them and gave them a chance to play.
In looking at Pie, I just don’t think Piniella has that same confidence in his abilities to be a contributer this year. Could he be wrong? Sure he could. But, I have to say, I trust Piniella’s opinion on player’s abiltiies a hell of a lot more than I do Hendry’s, or anyone else in the Cubs organization. For that reason, it’s hard for me to question that he hasn’t thrown Pie out there for extended periods. It’s also easier for me because I just don’t think the kid is ready either.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 13, 2008 11:20 PM CDT
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I can respect that.
My only concern is that it seems to me, looking at a lot of different prospects, that some only get ready by failing in the big leagues for 6 weeks or so. I also don’t think Pie’s problems will improve with more AAA time because he can hit most every pitch thrown down there.
But I do respect your opinion and your way of expressing it. Thanks for the good response.
by DGU on
May 13, 2008 11:26 PM CDT
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It depends
on what Pie improves on. We all know Pie can hit Triple A pitching, but that doesn’t mean he can’t improve on stuff that will make him a better big leaguer. Even though Pie hit awesome he still striked out 40 times in 55 times and only walked 19 times. If Pie can learn to make more contact and try to walk a little more, it could still make him a better big league player. If it was up to me I would still play Pie everyday in the major leagues, but Piniella players on results and Pie hasn’t gotten them when he has played. Yeah know it’s hard to get good results when you don’t play consistently. But plenty of players have done it, Soto got good results, Theriot got good results and even Cedeno now is getting good results as part-time players.
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 3:21 AM CDT
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Soto????
the first 22 games Soto was at the major league level, Jason Kendall was chosen as the starter in 18 of them
these younger players that Lou “let prove themselves” were ones that absolutely forced his hand (Marmol) or there was no viable veteran replacement option on the roster he could go to (Theriot)
Actually i should take that back, Lou started Izturis through much of the begining of the year, once again choosing veteran over younger player
by DartmouthCubsFan on
May 13, 2008 11:42 PM CDT
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yup
all the while Soto was tearing it up in AAA, Piniella disregarded him last year till the very end.
by ecbc on
May 13, 2008 11:49 PM CDT
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Guess what
alot of guys hit well in Triple A, and their bad at baseball. Can you really blame Piniella for disregarding Soto? Lets not forget this guy was crap before last year, and people were hoping he could possible be the next Henry Blanco. I could understand your point if Soto was a quality prospect and hitting well. But I don’t blame the Cubs at all to see if Soto was for a real or not.
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 3:06 AM CDT
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interesting
So because Soto was “Crap” the year before he shouldn’t get a shot, because he wasn’t a top prospect
but then Pie, a top prospect who has hit at EVERY LEVEL, should be sent back down to a league in which he hit .362 so we can play the decrepid corpse of Jim Edmonds
sounds contradictory to me
by DartmouthCubsFan on
May 14, 2008 10:21 AM CDT
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huh?
Pie has gotten more chances then Soto ever did to talk the starting job. Like you said he had one month playing part-time and did. While Pie has gotten alot of time last year this year playing part-time and counldn’t.
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 12:53 PM CDT
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Pie's chance
After not starting a game since April 15, Felix Pie hit .500/.500/.800 from April 21 – 24, with only one strikeout. Lou responded by not starting Pie again till Apr 29. During that stretch from the 21st to the 29th, Reed Johnson was hitting .214/.324/.214.
Did Pie ever have a chance?
by DGU on
May 14, 2008 1:41 PM CDT
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Not a disregard
IIRC, Soto was injured for a good chunk of the year last year(back or shoulder injury), forcing him to play DH much of the time instead of catcher. The major league club had no choice but to let him get healthy enough to be solid in the field first before the callup. I would not pass any blame to Lou about it.
by Qixotl on
May 14, 2008 8:25 AM CDT
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when Soto was up
he sat, until the very end of the season when it was overtly clear that Soto was the better player because every time he got a chance to hit, he hit
even then he only “split time” with Kendall
by DartmouthCubsFan on
May 14, 2008 10:22 AM CDT
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I think most mangers...
...would have started a gold glove SS over theriot, and also went with the veteran behind the plate like he did with Kendall. What you fail to mention, is he nuked Izturis rather quickly and also had the balls to put in Soto in pressure situations when he had no ML experience.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 13, 2008 11:58 PM CDT
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what are you talking about?
“also had the balls to put Soto in pressure situations when he had no ML experience”
He had no ML experience because Lou didn’t play him until the very end of the year. It’s a circular argument you’ve formed. Lou gets no blame for not playing him until the final weeks of the season, then he gets all the credit for playing the guy he should’ve been playing for a month and a half for the last 3 weeks? C’mon…
by DartmouthCubsFan on
May 14, 2008 10:23 AM CDT
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I'll say again...
...very few (if any with a clue) would throw a rookie catcher into a pennant race when they are called up unless the current catcher lost both legs. The experience in dealing with the pitchers (calling games etc.) is critical, and Lou needed to get comfortable in the fact that Soto could handle that part of the game.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 14, 2008 10:26 AM CDT
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so the argument
goes like this:
- anyone with a clue would not play a top catching prospect when trying to win ballgames down the stretch because he has a lack of experience
-After ignoring the player for 6 weeks, Lou Pineilla (almighty, omnipotent, genius) decided to play the prospect
-thus, for the first 6 weeks, Lou had a clue. After that Lou did not have a clue
= Lou is right
how does this line of reasoning make any sense?
by DartmouthCubsFan on
May 14, 2008 10:48 AM CDT
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and you think
a rookie catcher in his first days in the bigs with a whole new staff should just start right away? That is setting him up for failure.
by californiachicagoan on
May 14, 2008 4:29 PM CDT
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Are you kidding me?
unless the current catcher lost both legs.
It was practically the exact same situation. Once Barret was gone, we used Koyie Hill and Rob Bowen. We traded for Kendall. All the while Soto was doing great. It’s not like we ever had an actual established catcher. When you have no established catcher, why wouldn’t you try out some hot-hitting minor leaguer.
by ecbc on
May 14, 2008 7:45 PM CDT
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Simple...
...because catching in a playoff race is more than hitting.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 14, 2008 7:47 PM CDT
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I heard no problems with his defense
and I heard a lot about Kendall’s poor arm
by ecbc on
May 14, 2008 8:01 PM CDT
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Not to mention
hitting is still a very big part of it…
by ecbc on
May 14, 2008 8:02 PM CDT
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Lou is king of the circular argument defense
The same thing is going on with Pie now. The Edmonds decision “makes sense” because Pie can’t get regular playing time. Why can’t Pie get regular playing time? Because Lou has preferred to play a dead end veteran who hits worse against RHP than Pie. But Lou has to play RJ because Pie’s not ready. And on the circle goes.
by DGU on
May 14, 2008 11:56 AM CDT
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Thats how Piniella works
he doesn’t give jobs based on minor league numbers, or possible potential. He will give you a chance to play, and if you earn the job by playing better then that guy you get it. It took Theriot a while to get the SS job but he got it, It look Soto to the end of the month to get the catcher job but he got it. It took Marmol pitching lights out to get moved into later innings. Why should these young players just come up and have jobs on a team that plans on being in the playoffs? Yeah Maybe on the Pirates or Marlins or Nationals that could be the case. But seriously this is baseball. You play on results and proving yourself,not potential, minor league numbers or even talent. I think many fans often pay attention too much to the stats and forget that.
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 2:10 AM CDT
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The whole point of this fanpost
was to show how smarter and winning ML teams do not work the way you describe. They know their goal is to win the last ML game played.
No one says that minor league #s always lead to successful major league #s. But minor league #s achieved at young ages combined with glowing scouting reviews tend to lead to successful major leaguers. Note the word “tend.” I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that Pie or any other prospect will succeed.
The point is to have the best team in October and November on the field. So, why doesn’t it make sense to let just one player develop if you see that his potential payoff is greater than with the more steady but more limited veteran?
by DGU on
May 14, 2008 7:50 AM CDT
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The posts didnt show it.
Meanwhile, the Cubs won the division last year.
by californiachicagoan on
May 14, 2008 4:30 PM CDT
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Have you considered...
...that Piniella has significant questions about Pie’s payoff potential and that is why he has not played him more?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on
May 14, 2008 6:48 PM CDT
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That's possible
but goes against every scouting report summary I’ve read in many places, but I can cite simply Baseball America, where he was a top 50 prospect with a high ceiling.
by DGU on
May 14, 2008 7:02 PM CDT
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do you suggest
that Pie has had a chance to prove himself?
Because a lot of us think he hasn’t.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on
May 14, 2008 9:40 AM CDT
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Yes
he makes young players earn their jobs. I really don’t get this debate, on contending team trying to make the playoffs. When do teams just bench veterans and play young guys because their hitting in Triple A? Jason Kendall was hitting 290/385/772 with the Cubs when we called up Soto in September. I guess since Soto was awesome in Triple A, we should just bench Kendall right away. Same thing with Izturis he was brought in by the GM to be the starting SS, Piniella gave Theriot chances to take the job, and he did. Sure it didn’t happen over night but it happen. But right now Theriot is hitting 331 and alot of Cubs fans will try to say he’s not a everyday player, so your going to blame Piniella for not starting him right away? You guys might have a point if Piniella did this stuff on bad teams, but almost ALL contending teams especially big market contending teams make their young players earn jobs. I’m sorry guys but it’s pretty obvious you have something against Piniella and trying to make things much worse then they actually were.
by cubsfan25 on
May 14, 2008 3:15 AM CDT
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