Dempster naysayers apologetic opportunity

Well

I wasn’t one of those posters, but I must say I am very happily surprised. If you had told me two months ago that Dempster would be contributing to the Cubs half as much as he is now, I wouldn’t have believed you.

I hope he keeps it up!

"Are you gonna bark all day little doggie, or are you gonna bite?"

by VicVega on May 16, 2008 1:56 AM CDT 0 recs

Mea Culpa

I didn’t think he’d go down in flames, necessarily, but I did think he’d walk a ton, putting the Cubs behind in games and resulting in mediocre to bad ERA and WHIP. This, is an organization with 9 possible starters and a manager with a very short leash, I suspected would lead to a reassignment to the bullpen..

Slightly mitigating that was noticing how hard he worked over the off season to get ready for this job. He showed up to spring training in better shape than he’s ever been with this team and seemed incredibly focused on proving himself.

But I’m surprised, and now give him his props. (And hope he doesn’t regress…....but that goes without saying.)

"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome

by JohnM on May 16, 2008 4:33 AM CDT 0 recs

+1

Agree with everything you say.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 16, 2008 7:46 AM CDT up 0 recs

I can't seem

to find Dempster’s BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) but I think I read that he is on the low end of .300, which likely means his ERA will be going up and you can’t expect him to maintain this. However, I still think that as his BABIP creeps up, he can still be a good starting pitcher and has been a very pleasant surprise for us.

Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man

by sheamcmurray on May 16, 2008 4:55 AM CDT 0 recs

It's even lower than that - maybe around .220

Based on my back-of-the-envelope calculations. It should come up.

But he has been pitching well. He’s keeping his walks down, which is helpful, and he lays down a mean sac bunt.

by gjdow on May 16, 2008 6:45 AM CDT up 0 recs

I think its even in the 100s

.195 to be exact, so hes gonna come back to Earth thats for sure

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on May 16, 2008 7:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

Forgive my ignorance

but isn’t a .195 batting average for balls in play good? Why would his ERA go up with such a low BABIP number? Thanks for the help.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 16, 2008 8:27 AM CDT up 0 recs

The reasoning is

that a .195 BABIP is totally unsustainable. Dempster may have recovered some of the old magic, but he hasn’t suddenly morphed into mid-90’s Pedro Martinez, so the thought is that his BABIP will begin to drift back towards league average, and, as hits find their way around the park, more runners will get base, and those runners will begin to score with greater regularity. A rise in BABIP, which we can reasonably expect from Dempster, is usually accompanied by a rise in ERA. We’re not saying that Demp is going to do a Marquis-esque tank, but we are saying he’s just as unlikely to continue his brilliance of late.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 8:32 AM CDT up 0 recs

Gotcha

thanks for the education.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 16, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up 0 recs

team BABIP

anyone have the figure for what the cubs as a whole have for BABIP? our good defense would lend one to think that the team BABIP would be lower than league average.

"Anytime I want to throw 95 or 96 (m.p.h.), I can throw it. But it's not how hard you throw in the big leagues. It's how you locate your pitches and learn to pitch the game." - If Zambrano has truly figured out how to pitch, look out.

by kylejo on May 16, 2008 10:44 AM CDT up 0 recs

nevermind, should have kept reading down

"Anytime I want to throw 95 or 96 (m.p.h.), I can throw it. But it's not how hard you throw in the big leagues. It's how you locate your pitches and learn to pitch the game." - If Zambrano has truly figured out how to pitch, look out.

by kylejo on May 16, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up 0 recs

it's .220, not .195

... though I completely agree with you on .220 not being sustainable without incredible luck.

Help me Obi-ONEDEC. You're our only hope.

by IowaCubs- on May 16, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up 0 recs

I have it at .208.

We’re splitting an awful lot of hairs at this point, though.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:34 AM CDT up 0 recs

To be honest

I don’t think anyone believed he would be this great of a starter for the first 1/4 of the season. I thought he would be a 5th starter at best, maybe work in the pen. I am really surprised by this season he is having

2008 Cubs: Why Beat A Team in Regulation, when you can beat them in extras?

by Chanman25 on May 16, 2008 6:48 AM CDT 0 recs

I think we need one of this type of post

for Soriano haters. He clearly has turned the corner this season, much earlier than last.

"I got mad hits like I was Rod Carew!"

by lostinthevines on May 16, 2008 6:51 AM CDT 0 recs

OK but

while I felt compelled to come clean on this, I will not need to post in that particular thread.

"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome

by JohnM on May 16, 2008 7:17 AM CDT up 0 recs

Ummm....

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 7:34 AM CDT 1 recs

HAHAHAHAAHAHAAHA

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 7:53 AM CDT up 0 recs

I don't get it

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on May 16, 2008 8:16 AM CDT up 0 recs

Me neither

"I got mad hits like I was Rod Carew!"

by lostinthevines on May 16, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up 0 recs

don't count your chickens

before they hatch.

But I dunno. Demps has been lights out, even the games he’s taken a loss on. Game. Heh.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up 0 recs

perfect post

Dempster’s BEEN great, but by no means does that mean he’ll BE great going forward. He’s had what you would call the perfect storm for success. For example let’s take a look at who he’s pitched against (Team OBP):

MIL (.316)
PIT (.323)
CIN (.329)
PIT (.323)
WAS (.314)
MIL (.316)
CIN (.329)
ARZ (.348)
SD (.303)

that’s an average of (.322), that would rank 13th in the NL and 22nd in all of baseball if the .322 OBP were one team. So on average he’s started against the lesser tier teams in the league

his BABIP against is .209, league average is closer to .300

his Strand Rate is .76, league average is .71-.73

So he’s gotten fortunate with scheduling, with batted balls in play, and with runners crossing the plate. It’s been an absolute perfect storm for Dempster

So have the naysayers been wrong up to this point in the season: ABSOLUTELY

but 9 starts does not make a season, and while no one here is rooting against Dempster I think expectations need to be tempered, there is going to be a significant adjustment period in these numbers at some point in the near future.

As an aside, I seem to remember these same type of sentiments being bantered about Jason Marquis last year… and well… that didn’t end well

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 8:25 AM CDT up 1 recs

nice post

thanks for the numbers

by kranskie on May 16, 2008 8:44 AM CDT up 0 recs

Was going to mention Marquis...

but I didn’t want to appear like sour grapes. :)

I hope that Dempster’s incredibly low BAA and SLG are evidence of some dramatic improvement in his approach. I definitely am skeptical of that, though. Hopefully it is something systematic with his approach, and hopefully it continues.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:59 AM CDT up 0 recs

Didn't say anything bad about Dempster ....

I continue to call him “Dumpster” out of a sense of love. But that said, to see him be the surprise of the season-well he and Johnson, IMHO-is something I didn’t anticipate!

Good job, Crazy Canuck!

GEAUX THERIOT!

by Little Rock Ryno Fan on May 16, 2008 7:48 AM CDT 0 recs

That would be me

I wrote a long post about Demp returning to Earth… and his BABIP is still .209 according to baseball-reference.com (I don’t know just what methods our various sources use to calculate this… I always see several similar quotes for this stat and I just don’t know who calculates it most directly… b-r, with its Play Index connection, certainly has the opportunity to do so, but it could just calculate it from other stats).

Anyway, his BABIP is still .209, so he’ll probably give up more hits and runs on a sustained basis than he has so far. With this last start his K/BB ratio hit 2, and he’s still only given up 3 homers on the year; this is after a great start against a bad offense, but it counts like anything else. He certainly sounded impressive on the radio, and I’d wager he really is fooling batters more than he has in the past and probably making fewer mistakes up in the zone.

There is one thing that almost certainly will happen to Demp, and that’s that he’ll stop his string of luck and have a few games where the hits have eyes all day. Happens to every pitcher, hasn’t happened to Ryan yet. That BABIP will look more normal by the end of the year, and bring his ERA up with it. As he does seem to be pitching really well, though, the other question is whether he can sustain this level of performance for a full season. If he trained really hard in the offseason, will he break down at some point during the year? He has had a full season of great starting work just once, when he was much younger.

For the time being, though, I’ll nudge my expectations for Dempster up a bit. He’ll be OK.

by aldimond on May 16, 2008 8:19 AM CDT 0 recs

Batting Average On Balls In Play is...

...simply:

(Hits minus home runs) divided by (at bats minus strikeouts minus home runs plus sacrifice flies)

What it’s measuring is how often a batted ball falls in for a hit. There’s a large amount of evidence that pitchers have very little control over this. (What control they do have is mostly to do with pitches like the knuckleball and popup rates.)

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 10:13 AM CDT up 0 recs

"how often a batted ball falls in for a hit"

So it seems to measure two things:

1) Luck (at-em balls versus seeing-eye dribblers, etc.)
2) Defense (team range)

Is there any evidence as to how much of it is luck, and how much defense? If it’s mostly luck, or “chance”, isn’t that kind of a random thing to measure? Or is there evidence that chance evens out over time? How much time?

"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome

by JohnM on May 16, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up 0 recs

I can measure team defense pretty well, I like to think.

If nothing else you can simply look at a team’s BABIP – a bit crude, but effective. So far this season the Cubs have had a .287 BABIP, nothing to suggest that the Cubs defense is good enough to sustain Dempster’s BABIP rate. (That matches up with what the more sophisticated measures of team defense I have available to me say.)

Over a long enough period of time, “luck” or chance – or however you want to label what’s essentially a sampling issue – will even out. Will luck even out over 200 innings? A lot more than it does over 60 innings pitched, but not perfectly.

Is it possible that Dempster’s “luck” continues, and that he ends the season with a lower than expected BABIP, even accounting for team defense? Sure! Especially in a single-season, a lot of improbable things can happen to individuals.

But it’s not possible for us to predict Dempster’s luck, and so our best bet is to predict the most likely outcome – and that’s a BABIP in the vicinity of .290.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

I understand the luck over a short term...

...but Dempster certainly seems to be getting ahead of more hitters, which means they have more defensive swings. Over time, hitters will get fewer hits when they are behind in the count vs being ahead (this is pretty clear for all hitters splits). Over a long season, harder hit balls should find more holes, and putting the hitter on the defensive, is a good way to lower the amount of hard hit balls.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

Greg Maddux's career BABIP is .286.

I’d think that if getting ahead in the count could affect your BABIP that much, it would be lower.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:02 AM CDT up 0 recs

We can keep doing this, really.

Career BABIPs:

Roger Clemens – .286
Pedro Martinez – .279
Curt Schilling – .297
Randy Johnson – .294
Tim Wakefield – .276

I’ll say it again – unless Dempster is suddenly throwing a knuckleball, his true talent BABIP is within 10 points of .290.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up 0 recs

I don't know this stat stuff...

...as well as you, but check most hitters success rate when they are ahead in the count vs behind. I think it’s pretty clear guys get more hits when they are ahead vs behind.

Now, with some pitchers, getting strike one is more important than others and I think Dempster is one of the guys who is much better when he gets that strike one. The guys with exceptional control (like Maddux) can get away with getting behind a bit, because they have a better chance of putting that 2-0 pitch exactly where he wants and inducing an average ground ball somewhere.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up 0 recs

But Dempster isn't getting ahead of hitters much more...

He is getting ahead slightly more, but he isn’t getting ahead of hitters at a dramatically different rate than last year. Certainly nowhere near enough to warrant the unbelievable difference in BABIP.

And again, there probably aren’t many more pitchers who get ahead in the count more frequently than the guys cwyers listed. They have career BABIPs almost 100 points higher than Dempster right now.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:17 AM CDT up 0 recs

I don't know what to say...

...except he is clearly making better pitches than he did as a closer. I think knowing he has a little room for error, has caused him to relax some.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up 0 recs

But you're not arguing that he's making better pitches.

You are essentially arguing that, in this regard, Ryan Dempster has suddenly become the greatest pitcher of all time. I can tell you with convincing authority that Ryan Dempster is not the greatest pitcher of all time. So I really have no idea what we’re arguing here.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up 0 recs

why can't he just

be better than he was last year?

He’s the #3 starter. he’s winning ball games. It’s an intangible, but it’s working.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up 0 recs

He COULD be...

we’re just discussing reasons why that is pretty unlikely.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up 0 recs

If you scroll down in the thread...

...I say that his BB, K and HR rates would leave him with a 3.50 ERA on the season. Now those are probably going to regress to the mean as well. But I don’t think I’m questioning that Dempster is better than last season so far – increasing your strikeout rate while moving from short relief to the rotation is no small feat, and halving your HR rate at the same time is also pretty impressive. And some of that may be sustainable – I’ll take a look at the component regression in a while if I have time.

But his BABIP rate is not real. Is. Not. Real. It’s an artifact of a sampling issue, nothing more or less.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up 0 recs

I leave the stats to guys

who can do math—I struggle with helping my son do third grade homework.

All I know is, he’s winning, and it’s great to see. :)

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up 0 recs

Agreed...

hopefully he can continue to defy logic. In any case, it’s been fun so far.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

You lost me...

...on that one. I don’t know what you mean by me saying Dempster has become the “greatest pitcher of all time”.

I am saying he appears to be getting ahead of more hitters and is making better pitches. His body language also tells me he appears much more relaxed than he did as a closer.

If it’s a fact that he isn’t getting ahead of guys, than so be it, but guys certainly don’t seem to have as many good swings against him this year, as compared to years past. When you see more defensive swings, it usually means his pitches are more effective.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up 0 recs

It's a fact that he's not getting ahead of guys...

at a dramatically different rate.

Moreover, getting ahead of guys doesn’t seem to be the common denominator for low BABIP. If it was, then the guys whom cwyers mentioned would have much lower BABIP, as they are among the absolute best at getting ahead in the count, and they have fairly pedestrian (by comparison to Dempster’s 2008 BABIP) stats in BABIP.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up 0 recs

it's a mystery.

but it’ll all turn out in the end.

Especially if there’s a dog.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up 0 recs

How about this...

...do we know what Dempster’s % of strikes thrown is this year, compared to his years as a closer?

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up 0 recs

We at least know his percentage of first pitch strikes...

last year it was 47%. This year it’s 54%. That’s not dramatically different.

What we also know is that in the same counts, hitters are hitting him less than last year. The difference there HAS been dramatically different.

I’m certainly hopeful that this is due to some difference in approach, but I’m VERY skeptical.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up 0 recs

I like to look at hitter's reactions...

...and guys don’t seem to have the same bead on him they have had in the past. He has the same pitches, but it’s possible he is mixing them up more, knowing he needs to face the order 4 times now.

Time will tell whether his success is more luck, but he just seems to have better command than previous years.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up 0 recs

Maybe you're right...

maybe he has figured something out. Based on his BABIP, I don’t think that is the case.

To clarify – it is clear that people haven’t been hitting him solidly so far. That’s evident by the BABIP. What is not clear is what is causing hitters to not hit him cleanly so far. I’m inclined to believe it’s a combination of weaker opposition and good fortune.

Hopefully, I’m wrong and you’re right.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up 0 recs

Hitters have been hitting him solidly.

His line drive rate is 17.3% – which, coincidentally enough, would indicate a .293 BABIP. (Just add 12% to LD% to get BABIP.) He’s getting lucky on balls hit into play.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up 0 recs

I stand corrected...

If people are hitting the ball hard and just at people, then that would seem to defy the “he’s keeping them off-balance” theory. That would seem to indicate luck is the predominant factor in his BABIP, which would not bode well moving forward.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up 0 recs

I like his K and BB rates, so there's still quite a bit of hope for him.

You would expect his K rates to decline and his BB rates to rise transitioning from the pen to starting pitching. They haven’t – his K rate has actually increased slightly. How sustainable that is is the real question – if he can keep his K and BB rates where they’re at right now I’d bet on him to finish the season with a sub-4 ERA, which would be spectacular.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up 0 recs

K rate has always been similar...

he’s always K’ed between 7 and 8 hitters per game. He’s actually down a bit from his time as a closer. The walk rate is pretty similar to his best year in Florida, but the K rate is lower. That year, he had a 3.66 ERA in Florida. I assume that’s because he was unlucky that year?

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

The stats I'm looking at right now...

...only go back about five years. He was actually a pretty good pitcher as a closer – he’s no more responsible for his “bad” BABIP in ‘06 and ‘07 than he is responsible for his “good” BABIP now.

And, again – simply keeping his K and BB rates from his time closing is impressive. For most pitchers, you expect those to get worse – normally when you pitch in short relief you’re able to K batters at a much higher rate.

The other thing to note is his HR/F rate. Last year was a heavy outlier, and it’s gone back down to where it was ‘04-’06. HIs HR/F rate back in Florida that season looks like it was closer to 14% than 7% – that’s the big difference.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

What really happened...

Is that his K rate and BB rate didn’t really improve much as a closer. Well, his BB rate went down, but the K rate didn’t really change all that much.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

The other big difference...

is that his HR per inning is WAY lower than what he did previously. In his previous career as a starter, he was around 0.125 HR per inning (1 HR per 8 IP). Currently, he’s at 1 HR per 19 IP.

As a closer, his rate was lower (1 HR per 14 AB). So another question is whether his HR rate should more closely match his previous rate as a starter or his rate as a reliever. In either case, he’s substantially outperformed EITHER of those rates so far.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up 0 recs

We'll find out...

...but he is a guy with a tremendous amount of movement on all of his pitches, he has just struggled to command them in the closers role.

As a closer, it can be difficult to get a feel for all your pitches because you only throw one inning. Maybe pitching more innings is allowing him to mix in all his pitches and keeping guys off balance.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up 0 recs

I agree...

...his BABIP is not going to maintain his current level. He also won’t end up winning 20 games, which is his current pace.

But, for whateve reason, he seems to be more comfortable starting and this has helped him to be more productive.

If he ends up with 15 wins and an ERA below 4, I would think his season would be a success.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

Well, clearly...

An ERA below 4 is a solid year for nearly any starting pitcher. Especially one who has (1) never won 15 games and (2) had an ERA below 4 as a starter only once previously.

I was under the impression that you were providing rationale for the BABIP. If that’s not the case and you agree that it’s going to come up, I don’t really have any disagreements.

Hopefully, when the BABIP returns to normal, it doesn’t make him a below-average pitcher again.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up 0 recs

My whole thing...

...is he just looks like he is much better suited to be a starter with all the pitches he has and it has shown thus far.

He will have his bad starts, but next to Zambrano, he has the best stuff and maybe it is just better suited in this role.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up 0 recs

And as far as Maddux goes...

...I know his reputation is as a guy that was able to get a lot of hitters out without strikeouts, but that really isn’t true. He was in the top five in the league in strikeouts almost every year for a good ten year stretch. Maddux was a very good strikeout pitcher – what differentiated him from the rest was his absurdly low walk rate.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:33 AM CDT up 0 recs

Maddux, however...

... doesn’t walk nearly as many as Dempster—in fact, hardly walks anyone.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 16, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

Never to be called Dumpster again!

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on May 16, 2008 8:20 AM CDT 0 recs

I'm sorry

Hopefully I will be apologizing even more profusely a few months from now.

by daeviant on May 16, 2008 8:22 AM CDT 0 recs

Apologize? Uhh... no.

I was one who thought he’d be nothing more than Jason Marquis. And I still feel that was a rational viewpoint based on his career. I am definitely surprised (as EVERYONE should be) at how well he’s done so far. If you had thought he was going to be this good, well, I’d say you were delusional, because he’s NEVER been remotely close to this good.

Hopefully, he continues to prove me wrong. But I feel no need to apologize to anyone for having an opinion on the matter, whether it turns out to be right or wrong. To whom would I apologize in the first place? I’m very pleasantly surprised, very happy to be wrong about him so far, and definitely hope to remain wrong about him.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:28 AM CDT 0 recs

I am not sorry for having an opinion beforehand...

..Dempster has proven me wrong…good for him.

I hope that he continues to pitch well. I am happy for Dempster and the Cubs, their success means more to me than a scorecard of opinions. Besides that, should everyone apologize here whenever they are wrong? It makes no sense to me.

by DudeVf11 on May 16, 2008 8:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

To me it seems

that Dempster has been doing the one thing that gets major league hitters more than anything . . . changing speeds. I haven’t been able to watch too many of the games, but the ones I have been able to catch he gets hitter way out in front a lot. Hopefully he can continue to fool them.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 16, 2008 8:34 AM CDT 0 recs

That's true.

He’s also had a really nasty slider going.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 8:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

That may be what's going on...

Dempster has managed an incredibly low hit rate. He’s historically given up an BAA of between .240 and .280. Right now, it’s at .172. His SLG against is also MUCH lower than it has ever been (.236 vs .414 for his career). Everything else is in line with his career norms. His K rate is almost identical to his career average (7.54 vs 7.44) and his K/BB rate isn’t way out of line either (2.00 vs 1.61).

If I had to guess, the extremely low hit and extra-base rates are probably unsustainable. But, as you said, hopefully he can continue to fool them.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:50 AM CDT up 0 recs

You may be right regarding these stats.

But what I see from Dempster is, first, he lost a lot of weight in the offseason and is in far better shape than he was the last two years. Second, he seems like a man on a mission, to prove all the naysayers wrong.

Sometimes those things can result in success like this over a full season. It may not be sustainable based on previous statistical studies.

But I’ll bet Dempster is the exception. And if so, the Cubs are going to win a lot of games and Dempster is going to get a huge payday this offseason.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 16, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up 0 recs