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Dempster naysayers apologetic opportunity

Timing is everything and I thought it a good moment to give Ryan Dempster his early season props------He is a bona fide starter again, 12 K's and 8 1/3 IP shut out.

Hmmmmm I seem to recall a consensus of  expert  opinions here on this community  in the blogosphere that  Dempster  was not going to be a starter....let alone a good one.  Well all those who were so hardened in their mistaken opinion, say your sorry and be funny about it too....for the Dempster would only like it that way.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Well

I wasn’t one of those posters, but I must say I am very happily surprised. If you had told me two months ago that Dempster would be contributing to the Cubs half as much as he is now, I wouldn’t have believed you.

I hope he keeps it up!

"Are you gonna bark all day little doggie, or are you gonna bite?"

by VicVega on May 16, 2008 1:56 AM CDT reply actions  

Mea Culpa

I didn’t think he’d go down in flames, necessarily, but I did think he’d walk a ton, putting the Cubs behind in games and resulting in mediocre to bad ERA and WHIP. This, is an organization with 9 possible starters and a manager with a very short leash, I suspected would lead to a reassignment to the bullpen..

Slightly mitigating that was noticing how hard he worked over the off season to get ready for this job. He showed up to spring training in better shape than he’s ever been with this team and seemed incredibly focused on proving himself.

But I’m surprised, and now give him his props. (And hope he doesn’t regress…....but that goes without saying.)

"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome

by JohnM on May 16, 2008 4:33 AM CDT reply actions  

+1

Agree with everything you say.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 16, 2008 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

I can't seem

to find Dempster’s BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) but I think I read that he is on the low end of .300, which likely means his ERA will be going up and you can’t expect him to maintain this. However, I still think that as his BABIP creeps up, he can still be a good starting pitcher and has been a very pleasant surprise for us.

Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man

by sheamcmurray on May 16, 2008 4:55 AM CDT reply actions  

It's even lower than that - maybe around .220

Based on my back-of-the-envelope calculations. It should come up.

But he has been pitching well. He’s keeping his walks down, which is helpful, and he lays down a mean sac bunt.

by gjdow on May 16, 2008 6:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think its even in the 100s

.195 to be exact, so hes gonna come back to Earth thats for sure

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on May 16, 2008 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

Forgive my ignorance

but isn’t a .195 batting average for balls in play good? Why would his ERA go up with such a low BABIP number? Thanks for the help.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 16, 2008 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

The reasoning is

that a .195 BABIP is totally unsustainable. Dempster may have recovered some of the old magic, but he hasn’t suddenly morphed into mid-90’s Pedro Martinez, so the thought is that his BABIP will begin to drift back towards league average, and, as hits find their way around the park, more runners will get base, and those runners will begin to score with greater regularity. A rise in BABIP, which we can reasonably expect from Dempster, is usually accompanied by a rise in ERA. We’re not saying that Demp is going to do a Marquis-esque tank, but we are saying he’s just as unlikely to continue his brilliance of late.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

Gotcha

thanks for the education.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 16, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

team BABIP

anyone have the figure for what the cubs as a whole have for BABIP? our good defense would lend one to think that the team BABIP would be lower than league average.

"Anytime I want to throw 95 or 96 (m.p.h.), I can throw it. But it's not how hard you throw in the big leagues. It's how you locate your pitches and learn to pitch the game." - If Zambrano has truly figured out how to pitch, look out.

by kylejo on May 16, 2008 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

nevermind, should have kept reading down

"Anytime I want to throw 95 or 96 (m.p.h.), I can throw it. But it's not how hard you throw in the big leagues. It's how you locate your pitches and learn to pitch the game." - If Zambrano has truly figured out how to pitch, look out.

by kylejo on May 16, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

it's .220, not .195

... though I completely agree with you on .220 not being sustainable without incredible luck.

Help me Obi-ONEDEC. You're our only hope.

by IowaCubs- on May 16, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

I have it at .208.

We’re splitting an awful lot of hairs at this point, though.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

To be honest

I don’t think anyone believed he would be this great of a starter for the first 1/4 of the season. I thought he would be a 5th starter at best, maybe work in the pen. I am really surprised by this season he is having

2008 Cubs: Why Beat A Team in Regulation, when you can beat them in extras?

by Chanman25 on May 16, 2008 6:48 AM CDT reply actions  

I think we need one of this type of post

for Soriano haters. He clearly has turned the corner this season, much earlier than last.

"I got mad hits like I was Rod Carew!"

by lostinthevines on May 16, 2008 6:51 AM CDT reply actions  

OK but

while I felt compelled to come clean on this, I will not need to post in that particular thread.

"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome

by JohnM on May 16, 2008 7:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ummm....

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 7:34 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

HAHAHAHAAHAHAAHA

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't get it

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on May 16, 2008 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Me neither

"I got mad hits like I was Rod Carew!"

by lostinthevines on May 16, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

don't count your chickens

before they hatch.

But I dunno. Demps has been lights out, even the games he’s taken a loss on. Game. Heh.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

perfect post

Dempster’s BEEN great, but by no means does that mean he’ll BE great going forward. He’s had what you would call the perfect storm for success. For example let’s take a look at who he’s pitched against (Team OBP):

MIL (.316)
PIT (.323)
CIN (.329)
PIT (.323)
WAS (.314)
MIL (.316)
CIN (.329)
ARZ (.348)
SD (.303)

that’s an average of (.322), that would rank 13th in the NL and 22nd in all of baseball if the .322 OBP were one team. So on average he’s started against the lesser tier teams in the league

his BABIP against is .209, league average is closer to .300

his Strand Rate is .76, league average is .71-.73

So he’s gotten fortunate with scheduling, with batted balls in play, and with runners crossing the plate. It’s been an absolute perfect storm for Dempster

So have the naysayers been wrong up to this point in the season: ABSOLUTELY

but 9 starts does not make a season, and while no one here is rooting against Dempster I think expectations need to be tempered, there is going to be a significant adjustment period in these numbers at some point in the near future.

As an aside, I seem to remember these same type of sentiments being bantered about Jason Marquis last year… and well… that didn’t end well

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Was going to mention Marquis...

but I didn’t want to appear like sour grapes. :)

I hope that Dempster’s incredibly low BAA and SLG are evidence of some dramatic improvement in his approach. I definitely am skeptical of that, though. Hopefully it is something systematic with his approach, and hopefully it continues.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

Didn't say anything bad about Dempster ....

I continue to call him “Dumpster” out of a sense of love. But that said, to see him be the surprise of the season-well he and Johnson, IMHO-is something I didn’t anticipate!

Good job, Crazy Canuck!

GEAUX THERIOT!

by Little Rock Ryno Fan on May 16, 2008 7:48 AM CDT reply actions  

That would be me

I wrote a long post about Demp returning to Earth… and his BABIP is still .209 according to baseball-reference.com (I don’t know just what methods our various sources use to calculate this… I always see several similar quotes for this stat and I just don’t know who calculates it most directly… b-r, with its Play Index connection, certainly has the opportunity to do so, but it could just calculate it from other stats).

Anyway, his BABIP is still .209, so he’ll probably give up more hits and runs on a sustained basis than he has so far. With this last start his K/BB ratio hit 2, and he’s still only given up 3 homers on the year; this is after a great start against a bad offense, but it counts like anything else. He certainly sounded impressive on the radio, and I’d wager he really is fooling batters more than he has in the past and probably making fewer mistakes up in the zone.

There is one thing that almost certainly will happen to Demp, and that’s that he’ll stop his string of luck and have a few games where the hits have eyes all day. Happens to every pitcher, hasn’t happened to Ryan yet. That BABIP will look more normal by the end of the year, and bring his ERA up with it. As he does seem to be pitching really well, though, the other question is whether he can sustain this level of performance for a full season. If he trained really hard in the offseason, will he break down at some point during the year? He has had a full season of great starting work just once, when he was much younger.

For the time being, though, I’ll nudge my expectations for Dempster up a bit. He’ll be OK.

by aldimond on May 16, 2008 8:19 AM CDT reply actions  

Batting Average On Balls In Play is...

...simply:

(Hits minus home runs) divided by (at bats minus strikeouts minus home runs plus sacrifice flies)

What it’s measuring is how often a batted ball falls in for a hit. There’s a large amount of evidence that pitchers have very little control over this. (What control they do have is mostly to do with pitches like the knuckleball and popup rates.)

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

"how often a batted ball falls in for a hit"

So it seems to measure two things:

1) Luck (at-em balls versus seeing-eye dribblers, etc.)
2) Defense (team range)

Is there any evidence as to how much of it is luck, and how much defense? If it’s mostly luck, or “chance”, isn’t that kind of a random thing to measure? Or is there evidence that chance evens out over time? How much time?

"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome

by JohnM on May 16, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

I can measure team defense pretty well, I like to think.

If nothing else you can simply look at a team’s BABIP – a bit crude, but effective. So far this season the Cubs have had a .287 BABIP, nothing to suggest that the Cubs defense is good enough to sustain Dempster’s BABIP rate. (That matches up with what the more sophisticated measures of team defense I have available to me say.)

Over a long enough period of time, “luck” or chance – or however you want to label what’s essentially a sampling issue – will even out. Will luck even out over 200 innings? A lot more than it does over 60 innings pitched, but not perfectly.

Is it possible that Dempster’s “luck” continues, and that he ends the season with a lower than expected BABIP, even accounting for team defense? Sure! Especially in a single-season, a lot of improbable things can happen to individuals.

But it’s not possible for us to predict Dempster’s luck, and so our best bet is to predict the most likely outcome – and that’s a BABIP in the vicinity of .290.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

I understand the luck over a short term...

...but Dempster certainly seems to be getting ahead of more hitters, which means they have more defensive swings. Over time, hitters will get fewer hits when they are behind in the count vs being ahead (this is pretty clear for all hitters splits). Over a long season, harder hit balls should find more holes, and putting the hitter on the defensive, is a good way to lower the amount of hard hit balls.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

Greg Maddux's career BABIP is .286.

I’d think that if getting ahead in the count could affect your BABIP that much, it would be lower.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

We can keep doing this, really.

Career BABIPs:

Roger Clemens – .286
Pedro Martinez – .279
Curt Schilling – .297
Randy Johnson – .294
Tim Wakefield – .276

I’ll say it again – unless Dempster is suddenly throwing a knuckleball, his true talent BABIP is within 10 points of .290.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know this stat stuff...

...as well as you, but check most hitters success rate when they are ahead in the count vs behind. I think it’s pretty clear guys get more hits when they are ahead vs behind.

Now, with some pitchers, getting strike one is more important than others and I think Dempster is one of the guys who is much better when he gets that strike one. The guys with exceptional control (like Maddux) can get away with getting behind a bit, because they have a better chance of putting that 2-0 pitch exactly where he wants and inducing an average ground ball somewhere.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

But Dempster isn't getting ahead of hitters much more...

He is getting ahead slightly more, but he isn’t getting ahead of hitters at a dramatically different rate than last year. Certainly nowhere near enough to warrant the unbelievable difference in BABIP.

And again, there probably aren’t many more pitchers who get ahead in the count more frequently than the guys cwyers listed. They have career BABIPs almost 100 points higher than Dempster right now.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know what to say...

...except he is clearly making better pitches than he did as a closer. I think knowing he has a little room for error, has caused him to relax some.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

But you're not arguing that he's making better pitches.

You are essentially arguing that, in this regard, Ryan Dempster has suddenly become the greatest pitcher of all time. I can tell you with convincing authority that Ryan Dempster is not the greatest pitcher of all time. So I really have no idea what we’re arguing here.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

why can't he just

be better than he was last year?

He’s the #3 starter. he’s winning ball games. It’s an intangible, but it’s working.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

He COULD be...

we’re just discussing reasons why that is pretty unlikely.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

If you scroll down in the thread...

...I say that his BB, K and HR rates would leave him with a 3.50 ERA on the season. Now those are probably going to regress to the mean as well. But I don’t think I’m questioning that Dempster is better than last season so far – increasing your strikeout rate while moving from short relief to the rotation is no small feat, and halving your HR rate at the same time is also pretty impressive. And some of that may be sustainable – I’ll take a look at the component regression in a while if I have time.

But his BABIP rate is not real. Is. Not. Real. It’s an artifact of a sampling issue, nothing more or less.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

I leave the stats to guys

who can do math—I struggle with helping my son do third grade homework.

All I know is, he’s winning, and it’s great to see. :)

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed...

hopefully he can continue to defy logic. In any case, it’s been fun so far.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

You lost me...

...on that one. I don’t know what you mean by me saying Dempster has become the “greatest pitcher of all time”.

I am saying he appears to be getting ahead of more hitters and is making better pitches. His body language also tells me he appears much more relaxed than he did as a closer.

If it’s a fact that he isn’t getting ahead of guys, than so be it, but guys certainly don’t seem to have as many good swings against him this year, as compared to years past. When you see more defensive swings, it usually means his pitches are more effective.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's a fact that he's not getting ahead of guys...

at a dramatically different rate.

Moreover, getting ahead of guys doesn’t seem to be the common denominator for low BABIP. If it was, then the guys whom cwyers mentioned would have much lower BABIP, as they are among the absolute best at getting ahead in the count, and they have fairly pedestrian (by comparison to Dempster’s 2008 BABIP) stats in BABIP.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

it's a mystery.

but it’ll all turn out in the end.

Especially if there’s a dog.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

How about this...

...do we know what Dempster’s % of strikes thrown is this year, compared to his years as a closer?

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

We at least know his percentage of first pitch strikes...

last year it was 47%. This year it’s 54%. That’s not dramatically different.

What we also know is that in the same counts, hitters are hitting him less than last year. The difference there HAS been dramatically different.

I’m certainly hopeful that this is due to some difference in approach, but I’m VERY skeptical.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

I like to look at hitter's reactions...

...and guys don’t seem to have the same bead on him they have had in the past. He has the same pitches, but it’s possible he is mixing them up more, knowing he needs to face the order 4 times now.

Time will tell whether his success is more luck, but he just seems to have better command than previous years.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe you're right...

maybe he has figured something out. Based on his BABIP, I don’t think that is the case.

To clarify – it is clear that people haven’t been hitting him solidly so far. That’s evident by the BABIP. What is not clear is what is causing hitters to not hit him cleanly so far. I’m inclined to believe it’s a combination of weaker opposition and good fortune.

Hopefully, I’m wrong and you’re right.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hitters have been hitting him solidly.

His line drive rate is 17.3% – which, coincidentally enough, would indicate a .293 BABIP. (Just add 12% to LD% to get BABIP.) He’s getting lucky on balls hit into play.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

I stand corrected...

If people are hitting the ball hard and just at people, then that would seem to defy the “he’s keeping them off-balance” theory. That would seem to indicate luck is the predominant factor in his BABIP, which would not bode well moving forward.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

I like his K and BB rates, so there's still quite a bit of hope for him.

You would expect his K rates to decline and his BB rates to rise transitioning from the pen to starting pitching. They haven’t – his K rate has actually increased slightly. How sustainable that is is the real question – if he can keep his K and BB rates where they’re at right now I’d bet on him to finish the season with a sub-4 ERA, which would be spectacular.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

K rate has always been similar...

he’s always K’ed between 7 and 8 hitters per game. He’s actually down a bit from his time as a closer. The walk rate is pretty similar to his best year in Florida, but the K rate is lower. That year, he had a 3.66 ERA in Florida. I assume that’s because he was unlucky that year?

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

The stats I'm looking at right now...

...only go back about five years. He was actually a pretty good pitcher as a closer – he’s no more responsible for his “bad” BABIP in ‘06 and ‘07 than he is responsible for his “good” BABIP now.

And, again – simply keeping his K and BB rates from his time closing is impressive. For most pitchers, you expect those to get worse – normally when you pitch in short relief you’re able to K batters at a much higher rate.

The other thing to note is his HR/F rate. Last year was a heavy outlier, and it’s gone back down to where it was ‘04-’06. HIs HR/F rate back in Florida that season looks like it was closer to 14% than 7% – that’s the big difference.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

What really happened...

Is that his K rate and BB rate didn’t really improve much as a closer. Well, his BB rate went down, but the K rate didn’t really change all that much.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

The other big difference...

is that his HR per inning is WAY lower than what he did previously. In his previous career as a starter, he was around 0.125 HR per inning (1 HR per 8 IP). Currently, he’s at 1 HR per 19 IP.

As a closer, his rate was lower (1 HR per 14 AB). So another question is whether his HR rate should more closely match his previous rate as a starter or his rate as a reliever. In either case, he’s substantially outperformed EITHER of those rates so far.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

We'll find out...

...but he is a guy with a tremendous amount of movement on all of his pitches, he has just struggled to command them in the closers role.

As a closer, it can be difficult to get a feel for all your pitches because you only throw one inning. Maybe pitching more innings is allowing him to mix in all his pitches and keeping guys off balance.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree...

...his BABIP is not going to maintain his current level. He also won’t end up winning 20 games, which is his current pace.

But, for whateve reason, he seems to be more comfortable starting and this has helped him to be more productive.

If he ends up with 15 wins and an ERA below 4, I would think his season would be a success.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well, clearly...

An ERA below 4 is a solid year for nearly any starting pitcher. Especially one who has (1) never won 15 games and (2) had an ERA below 4 as a starter only once previously.

I was under the impression that you were providing rationale for the BABIP. If that’s not the case and you agree that it’s going to come up, I don’t really have any disagreements.

Hopefully, when the BABIP returns to normal, it doesn’t make him a below-average pitcher again.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

My whole thing...

...is he just looks like he is much better suited to be a starter with all the pitches he has and it has shown thus far.

He will have his bad starts, but next to Zambrano, he has the best stuff and maybe it is just better suited in this role.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

And as far as Maddux goes...

...I know his reputation is as a guy that was able to get a lot of hitters out without strikeouts, but that really isn’t true. He was in the top five in the league in strikeouts almost every year for a good ten year stretch. Maddux was a very good strikeout pitcher – what differentiated him from the rest was his absurdly low walk rate.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maddux, however...

... doesn’t walk nearly as many as Dempster—in fact, hardly walks anyone.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 16, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Never to be called Dumpster again!

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on May 16, 2008 8:20 AM CDT reply actions  

I'm sorry

Hopefully I will be apologizing even more profusely a few months from now.

by daeviant on May 16, 2008 8:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Apologize? Uhh... no.

I was one who thought he’d be nothing more than Jason Marquis. And I still feel that was a rational viewpoint based on his career. I am definitely surprised (as EVERYONE should be) at how well he’s done so far. If you had thought he was going to be this good, well, I’d say you were delusional, because he’s NEVER been remotely close to this good.

Hopefully, he continues to prove me wrong. But I feel no need to apologize to anyone for having an opinion on the matter, whether it turns out to be right or wrong. To whom would I apologize in the first place? I’m very pleasantly surprised, very happy to be wrong about him so far, and definitely hope to remain wrong about him.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:28 AM CDT reply actions  

I am not sorry for having an opinion beforehand...

..Dempster has proven me wrong…good for him.

I hope that he continues to pitch well. I am happy for Dempster and the Cubs, their success means more to me than a scorecard of opinions. Besides that, should everyone apologize here whenever they are wrong? It makes no sense to me.

by DudeVf11 on May 16, 2008 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

To me it seems

that Dempster has been doing the one thing that gets major league hitters more than anything . . . changing speeds. I haven’t been able to watch too many of the games, but the ones I have been able to catch he gets hitter way out in front a lot. Hopefully he can continue to fool them.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 16, 2008 8:34 AM CDT reply actions  

That's true.

He’s also had a really nasty slider going.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

That may be what's going on...

Dempster has managed an incredibly low hit rate. He’s historically given up an BAA of between .240 and .280. Right now, it’s at .172. His SLG against is also MUCH lower than it has ever been (.236 vs .414 for his career). Everything else is in line with his career norms. His K rate is almost identical to his career average (7.54 vs 7.44) and his K/BB rate isn’t way out of line either (2.00 vs 1.61).

If I had to guess, the extremely low hit and extra-base rates are probably unsustainable. But, as you said, hopefully he can continue to fool them.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

You may be right regarding these stats.

But what I see from Dempster is, first, he lost a lot of weight in the offseason and is in far better shape than he was the last two years. Second, he seems like a man on a mission, to prove all the naysayers wrong.

Sometimes those things can result in success like this over a full season. It may not be sustainable based on previous statistical studies.

But I’ll bet Dempster is the exception. And if so, the Cubs are going to win a lot of games and Dempster is going to get a huge payday this offseason.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 16, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

And I hope you're right and I'm wrong...

but I wouldn’t bet on a player being an exception.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

and hopefully

the huge pay-day ISN’T with the Cubs

this is my worst-case scenario, Dempster has one out of body experience for a season and we sign him to some ridiculous 4 year deal

if he continues to be good, that’s great… we’ll get a #1 draft pick for him and we can insert a guy like Gallagher into the rotation

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed

But that’s a topic for November, not now.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's not an arguement over whether or not it's sustainable.

Unless Ryan Dempster has suddenly started throwing a knuckleball, then his true-talent BABIP is within 10 points of .290, presuming an average defense behind him. That’s not to say that Dempster couldn’t finish the season with some other BABIP simply due to sampling issues, but if we were going to project Dempster to have a BABIP significantly different from .290 to end the season, it would be because of the Cubs’ defense, not anything Dempster is doing – unless, as I said, Dempster learned the knuckler without me noticing.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Should clarify that.

Team BABIP is currently .287, so it doesn’t look like the Cubs defense is doing anything special so far this season on the whole. (Which makes sense – my defensive data is a few days old, but I still only have the Cubs as a whole making three plays above average – and almost all of the team’s positive defensive contributions have come from the outfield so far.)

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'll fess up...

...I thought he was going to be a bust as a starter.

I was looking forward to 100 pitch counts by the fourth inning and that has not come close to happening.

One thing I always said about Dempster, was he had very good stuff and he just needed command. Well, being a starter seems to have made him relax and he is able to get ahead of hitters and put them away with his better pitches.

Maybe the save situations for him were not his cup of tea. He knew he had little room for error in that role, and now he can pace himself during a game and relax.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 9:02 AM CDT reply actions  

Dempster's Command

hasn’t changed at all…

he walked .45 batters/inning last year, this year he’s walking .42 batters/inning

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yup...

His K rate and his BB rate are basically right in line with his career trends. The only difference is he’s not giving up hits and he’s not giving up extra base hits. The question is whether or not that’s due to something he worked on this offseason or whether it’s due to getting fortunate (either with scheduling or with random good fortune).

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

I disagree...

...you can’t just look at the walks to determine his command. You also have to look at how often he is getting ahead of most of the hitters and able to make a pitch to get them out. When he was closing, he seemed to be 2-0 or 3-1 on 80% of the hitters and then would give up a bunch of hits. Now, he is able to put most guys away (and this shows up in how many hits per inning).

Check out his WHIP, it’s much better this year.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

Which is entirely based on his hit rate...

it’s a question of whether or not he’s “putting guys away” by getting them to make outs on balls in play (.195 BABIP) or whether he’s getting fortunate to have those guys miss slightly.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

his WHIP

is better because his BABIP is .209, most pitcher’s have zero control over a batted ball once its in play… this has been proven many a time

you realize WHIP = (walks + hits)/ innings pitched

if the BB’s/Inning are the same as years past… well the difference is the HITS. This isn’t freaking rocket science

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I understand...

...it isn’t rocket science and it’s clear he is getting strike one much more often and that is a good thing. Anyone who has played the game understands, it’s a hell of a lot easier to hit when you are ahead in the count as opposed to behind – hence fewer hits.

He still loses some guys, but you also have to keep in mind that during the course of a game, a starter may walk a guy or two (semi-intentionally) because he wants to pitch to the next guy. As a closer, you really don’t have that luxury as often.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would too...

...my eyes are certainly telling me he is. In general, he seems to be throwing more strikes and has more 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 counts than when he was closing.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 16, 2008 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't disagree with your logic on this...

It would certainly make sense that getting ahead in the count more often would result in better BAA. I’m just wondering if it’s the case that he’s throwing substantially more strikes early. The walk rate doesn’t seem to indicate it, but it’s certainly still possible to start off hitters with strikes and still give up similar walk totals.

FWIW, ESPN says that last year in 0-0 counts, Dempster gave up a .308 AVG and .410 SLG. This year, hitters have gone 0-16 against him. In 0-1 counts, last year they had a .985 OPS against him, this year it’s a .353 OPS. In 0-2 counts, last year it was a .369 OPS, this year it’s 0-26.

That doesn’t necessarily answer the question, but it does appear that he’s doing better in similar counts than he did last year. Whether that’s due to random luck or something he’s doing differently, I don’t know.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

search Brian Bannister + BABIP

and you’ll see a ton of articles on the idea of “beating BABIP” by getting ahead early in the count.

it’s an interesting debate

Dempster is getting ahead more this year, he’s gotten to 0-1 in 54% of his PA’s as opposed to 47% of PA’s last year. I don’t know the answer if getting ahead more often can defy BABIP, but I’m also not sure Dempster getting ahead more often is a sign of improved command (his BB Rates and Strike % rates are nearly identical) or if its a sign of a weak schedule so far allowing him to attack the zone a bit more early in the count

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

And if I was smart...

I would have been able to put it all together. Last year, Dempster threw a first-pitch strike to 116 of 207 batters (56%). This year so far, he’s thrown first pitch strikes to 98 of 156 batters (63%). However, the rest of the rates seem similar. 26 of 207 batters faced a 2-0 count last year (10%). This year, it’s 15 of 156 (13%).

So it’s hard to tell if the difference is due to getting ahead early (where he’s doing somewhat better) or due to being more successful in similar counts (which has certainly been the case in the 0-0, 0-1, and 0-2 counts).

Again, more information, but not really an answer. Only time will tell, I guess.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

that's AB's

you need to compare PA’s. You’re eliminating all his BB’s from the sample. I’d imagine more of his BB’s are coming from when he starts 1-0 than 0-1.

i came up with a difference of 54% this year to 47% last year when i quickly did it.

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Which is roughly the same difference...

He’s getting first pitch strikes more frequently, though it appears to me that he’s simply doing better in similar counts. Now, getting into pitchers’ counts will compound that advantage, but the question is whether the lower hit rate in similar counts is systematically related to something he’s done, or whether it’s due to opponents and/or good fortune.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

i could be wrong

i realize now after re-reading your post you used BF, i mistakenly assumed you were using AB’s since you used that before. My bad, you might have the better numbers here

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

No no, you were right...

Though it doesn’t make much of a difference in this case.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's still early

Yes, he’s done much better in the early going than I would’ve expected, as by now I thought he’d be back in the bullpen. So I have to give him credit.

But that walk rate is still around 4 per game, as it has been for the past couple of years, and as that BABIP goes up like others have said, those walks are going to start hurting. A lot.

I’ll be hoping for a season-long 1980 Steve Stone type fluke.

by DrunkenSuperman on May 16, 2008 9:09 AM CDT reply actions  

Exactly...

Will the .195 BABIP stay pretty low? That is the question. It’s almost certainly not going to stay THAT low, but the question is how close it gets to league average.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I confess

I didn’t think much of the idea. I know he won’t keep up at this level but at least he is looking servicable at worst and so far better than that. Definitely better than Marquis at this point.

by rlpete on May 16, 2008 9:40 AM CDT reply actions  

I predicted 16 wins

During Al’s thread contest to project players. You can look it up.

Mr. Towers, tear down this wall (er, I mean give us back Greg Maddux) !

by MDBNIU on May 16, 2008 9:43 AM CDT reply actions  

you get a cookie

it can go right next to your temple to Caesar Izturis

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

Also predicted that Rich Hill would have a poor year

Mr. Towers, tear down this wall (er, I mean give us back Greg Maddux) !

by MDBNIU on May 16, 2008 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

Also think Soriano is a bad baseball player...

do we need to point out all the things you are wrong about again?

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Is that what "breakout" means to you?

I know you have trouble with words but either you’re confused about what the word “breakout” means or you’re trying to retroactively change your opinions:

Predictions:
...
Rich Hill has a breakout season.

by Wreckard on May 16, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm sure he also said Rich Hill would have a poor year...

the key to making retroactive claims like this is to predict BOTH things. :)

But thanks for giving me yet another laugh at MDBNIU’s expense.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ah, indeed he did.

He hedged his bets on that one. I suppose that’s a great philosophy – predict both possible outcomes and you’re guaranteed to be right.

by Wreckard on May 16, 2008 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Note as well the other predictions he made...

regarding Fuld, Theriot, Cedeno, and Lee. And shockingly (for him), he predicted good things from Soriano. Honestly MDBNIU, I wouldn’t go puffing your chest out about Dempster. If you say enough things, theoretically SOME of them will be correct.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

PWNED AGAIN.

I was gonna say to MDBNIU: Dude, you don’t want to go down this road. You don’t want us checking into your previous statements because we’ll only end up embarassing you further. Turn slowly away and run.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 16, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

hoist

by the working search function! Hahahahahaahahahhahahahahhaha!

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

The new search function is great, isn't it?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 16, 2008 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also, win totals is a pretty pointless thing to predict...

as that is based on team success, not necessarily individual performance. But thanks for playing.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

agreed and Demp agrees too...

...on ESPN 1000 yesterday when asked if he had a goal for wins this year he said no….his goal is to pitch 200 innings this year. He felt if he did that he would be putting the Cubs in the best postion to win over the season.

Felix Pie must play everyday!

by JB 23 on May 16, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

And that's the right approach for a pitcher...

All you can control as a pitcher is what you do on the mound. Just ask Roger Clemens about the year he won 13 games with an ERA of 1.87 in 211 innings pitched.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Here you go

I haz show: http://hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on May 16, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

p.s.

I guessing Prince Fielder is responsible for the bite

I haz show: http://hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on May 16, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

Unless the cookie contains lard or some other meat by-product.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 16, 2008 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

Feel good some, and some are merely well, full of themselves

Dempster I thought was going to do well, not this well, but better and my only fear is that he breaks down. He has good stuff and for teams like yesterday who are going to swing at his spitter, they will be dominated.

For those who think their opinion using whatever means or resources of past interpretive data and can’t come around to say they were wrong…..well your opinion diminishes in weight for reality is what is going on now.

Example: Before ‘05 DLee was a good player but not great….he hit and hit and hit in ‘05 and even in August people said he is not supposed to do this. Now people look at him as a triple crown threat.

Professional athletes are funny people, they work at things and when they really work they get things right. Dempster came to camp motivated to be a starter again and now is emerging as the #2….because of this year’s performance…not the last years…...His stats are his stats except two of the most important…..

IP and W/L those are the results, the others are indicators to how he is getting there. Give me innings and give me Wins…....

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on May 16, 2008 9:58 AM CDT reply actions  

There's a difference between being wrong so far...

and apologizing. For whatever reason, you asked for an apology. I’ll never apologize for having an opinion.

Dempster has proven me wrong so far. Hopefully he continues to do so. We’ll see if he does. But to be blind to the “how” is a good way to wind up wrong in the long run.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ivy...

...get over yourself. you’ve posted nonsense here for years and any time anyone challenges you on a point or proves your opinions totally wrong you’ve never to be found. So get off your high horse because your track record here is one of posting inane blatherings and then heading for the exit.

DmL

by dmlichte on May 16, 2008 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

"Full of themselves"

Really. Methinks thou dost protest too much….

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

Although I love what I've seen from Dempster thus far...

...I think it’s a little early to be demanding an apology from the naysayers. Here’s what I wrote in my community projection:

If anyone can pull this off… ...it’s a wily, clever fellow like Ryan Dempster. Don’t get me wrong - I’m not predicting a run at the Cy Young, but I think he’ll turn in a performance somewhat comparable to his 2001 with the Marlins. (Also, I’m either too lazy, too unimaginative or too ill at ease with my own math skills to try to make a mixed prediction for him as both a starter and a bullpen guy, which, quite frankly, is entirely possible.) In other words, he’s this year’s Jason Marquis - and I’m not sure where that leaves the actual Jason Marquis.

Going into the season, cwyers (IIRC) pointed out that Marquis and Dempster are actually pretty similiar pitchers, but Dempster has the edge in that he can strike guys out. So far, that’s what’s really been paying off for Demp—he’s cutting down opposing hitters and keeping the ball out of play.

As others have pointed out, however, this may change as the season goes on—particularly when the weather heats up and he’s more at risk for fatigue and batters are looser at the plate. Remember how encouraged many of us were by Jason Marquis’ performances early last season.

Don’t get me wrong: I hope Demp maintains his dominance and turns out to be the surprise success story of 2008. Such a thing would have seemed a little ridiculous to predict back when it was first announced that Ryan would move into the rotation, but predicting Jim Edmonds would be patrolling centerfield would have seemed similarly outlandish back then, too.

When all is said and done, the biggest advantage I see in Ryan Dempster is his intelligence and insight. He really appears to be a very thoughtful guy who studies the game of baseball closely and reflects deeply upon on his own performances. Like I said, if anyone can pull this off, it’s him.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 16, 2008 10:01 AM CDT reply actions  

This isn't quite right...

Dempster hasn’t been keeping the ball out of play. His K rate is about what it’s always been, which is good but not spectacular. He’s been successful so far because he’s been getting guys out who put the ball in play at a rate higher than just about anyone in the league (i.e., really low BABIP).

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

To be fair, it's actually a VERY neat trick for a guy to keep his K and BB rates the same...

...when moving from a short relief role to the rotation. That’s something to keep an eye on. I have him at a 3.50 FIP-ERA with his current home run rate, 3.85 with the league HR rate. Still very impressive work from Dempster with the Ks and BBs.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ah, OK. I misinterpreted what you and others have said then.

My point remains basically the same, though—color me impressed and somewhat optimistic but wary.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 16, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

And while you're at it...

... how about the naysayers on this board who said about the White Sox:


Pitching? Who needs pitching?

TEAM ERA? Sox 5th in the AL & 6th in MLB.
TEAM WHIP? Sox 5th in AL & 8th in MLB.

... how about the naysayers on this board who said:

Gavin Floyd sucks!

ERA? 14th in the AL
WHIP? 9th in the AL

by DrCrawdad on May 16, 2008 12:27 PM CDT reply actions  

Allow me to reitierate

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who's counting?

Just pointing out that so far at least the naysayers here have been VERY, VERY wrong about the Sox pitching and overall performance.

by DrCrawdad on May 16, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

They better keep hitting then...

I’d say with all the projections I’ve seen, 80 wins would be a good season…

"I realize very well that I could regress to the mean."
-Brian Bannister on his BABIP

by Bump Bailey on May 16, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

For the White Sox

The Cubs should win 90-95 games. Print it!

"I realize very well that I could regress to the mean."
-Brian Bannister on his BABIP

by Bump Bailey on May 16, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Projections...

... no doubt those projections were based on Contreras, Danks & Floyd doing terrible. They’ve been terrific! The only Sox starter doing poorly (and that’s an understatement) is Mark Buehrle.

They better keep hitting then.

They have not been hitting. In fact, the Sox rank among the worst teams in MLB in hitting so far this season.

Point is though that the naysayers here were sure as (feces) that the Sox would suck. They were completely ill-informed but yet still felt they should spout about the Sox.

The Sox are doing much better than the naysayers predicted and sure hoped for. I instead hope they do even better.

GO-SOX-GO!

by DrCrawdad on May 16, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd wait until the end of the season

...before I started gloating if I were you.

Gavin Floyd (as of 5/10) BABIP: .144, K/BB Ratio: 1.06

Not saying he sucks, but there’s no way he sustains his current level of success. I am not sure specifically who you are aiming your gloating at (I rarely have much to say about the Sox because they’re pretty irrelevant to me) but if I were to guess what will happen over the course of the season I would expect some regression by all their pitching. 75-80 wins still seems like a pretty realistic expectation.

by Wreckard on May 16, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cut both ways?

Dempster and the Cubbies are doing very well at this point. Gavin Floyd and the Sox are doing well too (as the common sneer here was that the Sox were destined for last place).

At this point, quite a few things are upside down from what people expected (Detroit in last as a key example).

Sure, it’s early and things could turn for the worse for Gavin Floyd and the Sox. But that’s certainly true of Dempster and the Cubbies too, unless the Cubbies get their wish to play the Pirates for the remainder of the season.

by DrCrawdad on May 16, 2008 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it would cut both ways...

...if any of us were stupid enough to wander over to South Side Sox and post about how great Ryan Dempster was.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Huh?

I don’t remember saying Gavin Floyd was great.

...if any of us were stupid enough to wander over to South Side Sox …

I don’t know about SS Sox, but Cubbie fans pop-up in every Sox blog discussion on ChicagoSports.com, White Sox Interactive and the Sox newsgroup.

by DrCrawdad on May 16, 2008 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

They're playing .500 baseball.

In fact, as of this writing, they’re playing exactly .500 baseball. I’m not sure that’s “much better” than what most predicted. The pitching has been good, but it looks to me like they’re going to have the exact same problem this year as they did last year—a crippling inability to score runs.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 16, 2008 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

I have always liked

Dempster. He made me vervous several times last season but I had a feeling he would do well this season. Very happy for him and us.

by sue369 on May 16, 2008 2:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Well...

I never really liked him. I wanted him to be a starter but I had no clue he’d be this good. But keep in mind Jason Marquis was this good this early last year.

by wrigleyrocker12 on May 16, 2008 3:24 PM CDT reply actions  

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