Who gets Matt Holliday?

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 7:48 AM CDT Comment 48 comments

Ok, so this is a BIG if. However, half the fun of participating is a blog is dreaming things up.

This note on Yahoo! Sports today:

May 15 Tracy Ringolsby, of the Rocky Mountain News, reports the Colorado Rockies could try to trade OF Matt Holliday before the trade deadline if the team continues to struggle and if the team cannot agree to an extension with him. If the team does not find a favorable deal before the deadline, they could revisit trading him in the offseason.

I know we've visited this a million times, but allow me to be 1,000,001. Would we ever consider an outfield that has Kosuke Fukudome in center field? Holliday is a left-fielder, would either he or Alfonso Soriano play right? Is the sacrifice in defense worth it? Is Matt Holliday worth it?

I think that, certainly, we'd have the prospects to make this deal work for Colorado. Just at first glance, they could use pitching. It appears they also need middle infielders. We've got one wasting away on our bench. Hoffpauir to replace Helton?

Anyway, I know this is a bit of a pipe dream. But what are your thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Yet another MSM sportswriter rumor.

I’d put no stock in it. I doubt Holliday is going anywhere.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 16, 2008 7:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

He's going to be a free agent

after next season and it doesn’t sound like he wants to offer the Rox a discount. They’ll trade him, although they can wait until the off-season to do so. They won’t be doing an “everything must go” sale in Colorado.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on May 16, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And...

... Hoffpauir to replace Helton? You were serious? I can hear Rockies management laughing from here.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 16, 2008 7:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ok, well that was a stretch.

I’m hoping there’s a larger conversation here: if there’s a corner outfield bat that becomes available, do we bite? Or are we only interested in upgrading CF, SS and possibly 2B as far as hitters go?

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

we have corner outfielders.

Dome has no interest in playing center regularly.

And besides, Pie will be back. Hopefully very soon, to rid us of our Edmonds demons.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, so far the Cubs are 2-0 with Edmonds on the team.

Just sayin’.

(And as you well know, I don’t want him here either.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 17, 2008 4:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We dont have the goods..

This guy is one of the elite power hitters in the league, if we couldnt even get Brian Roberts, what chance would they stand to get him?

Besides why trade for this guy when theres pleny of almost 40 yr old left handed hitters out there to sign to block prospects?

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on May 16, 2008 7:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i doubt

the rockies won’t eventually come to terms with him. they signed Tulo to a huge deal after his rookie year. Holliday is a franchise type that you don’t trade away because your team is off to a slow start, or even havin a bad year.

"I don't want to be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me." Frank Costello

by kalamazoo_cubs_fan on May 16, 2008 8:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So, after the Tulo deal...

Do they have the cash to keep Holliday?

Also, the Tulo deal hasn’t exactly been fruitful thus far this year. Are they burnt on long-term contracts?

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they have the cash.

a team like the Rockies, in a market like theirs, have resources to sign 2-3 of the leagues best. Even if they come across as if they don’t.

"I don't want to be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me." Frank Costello

by kalamazoo_cubs_fan on May 16, 2008 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One, we don't have what it takes,

two, we’ve already got a LF making a ton of money; two would be overkill. Colorado just signed Holliday to a 2 year, 23 million dollar (9.5 mil this year, 13.5 next year) extension before the season, so that’s going to make him tough to move as well, especially if they expect the team receiving him to pick up all or most of that salary. Plus, I don’t think the Cubs have the talent to trade for him, not without crippling the farm system.

That said, I’d love to have another perennial .300/30/100 guy on the Cubs, but salary-wise and trade-worthy talent-wise, I just don’t see the Cubs making a play here.

I doubt the Rockies would trade in the division, but I bet the D’Backs, given Byrnes’ performance of late, really covet Holliday.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 8:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well said...

there’s virtually no way we could get Holliday without gutting our farm. And he’d either be a bad RF or Soriano would be a bad RF, and we’d have Fukudome playing out of position as well. And he’d cost a lot of money.

There are a lot of teams that would go after Holliday if he were available (including the Cardinals). And if we didn’t have Soriano, I’d certainly want the Cubs to be one of them. But given that we have Soriano for the foreseeable future, there’s just no place for Holliday.

by SouthernCub on May 16, 2008 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gutting the farm

wouldn’t do it.

I think any Cub trade for Matt Holliday would have to include Geovany Soto.

We have two corner outfielders. Spending the resources necessary to get Holliday would be stupid.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on May 16, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree Holliday doesn't make sense for the Cubs, but here are a couple of questions:

1) Has Soto actually surpassed Holliday in value, considering salaries and years of club control?
2) What kind of value do you think a Pie, Cedeno, Gallagher package could bring back? Or if Gallagher is now off the table, a package that included Pie, Cedeno, and the pitching prospect of the other club’s choice?

by DGU on May 16, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Soto is not more valuable than Matt Holliday. But it would be close when you consider salary and position.

As far as the second question, it’s really too speculative to answer. It depends on the needs of the team—and every game Gallagher pitches like today increases his value. Cedeno and Pie don’t have much value right now because teams know they’re spare parts for the Cubs. The Cubs have probably destroyed almost all value Pie had with the way they’ve handled him.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on May 16, 2008 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know -

SSs are scarce enough that I think Ronny could have some surprising value. And as for Pie – if he goes back down and puts up big AAA #s, most teams will realize he never got regular playing time for the Cubs. I don’t think we’d get full value if we had handled Pie better, but a package deal of Pie and Cedeno might tempt Colorado – not that Colorado necessarily has something we want (because I agree we don’t want Holliday).

by DGU on May 16, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if a big if

the rockies trade him i see a possible deal like this—-yanks get holliday, rockies get something like matsui,hughes, + 2 prospects. even if we needed him we cant touch the amount of talent it would take to get him.

It might beeeeee!! It could beeeeeee!! It issssss!! Homerun!! Holyyyyyyy Cow!!!

by cubsluver22 on May 16, 2008 8:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good thoughts, all

Fun to dream, though, right?

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 8:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Always.

Spurs are in a bidding war with L’pool for Riera.

And, remember, on Wednesday, May 21st: Chelsea are pants.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I live in Denver

and believe me, Holliday is NOT going anywhere. Rockies have a limited payroll yes, but he’s a franchise player who will get the money he deserves. Even if there off on the numbers IMO Holliday is the kind of guy that will make something work to stay in his hometown. I’m with you on the enjoyment of speculating on trades but you’re better off going back to talking about Brian Roberts….. (please don’t go back to talking about Brian Roberts)

"What a great call! Your doing a fantastic job, but people expect me to come out here and be upset. So I'm gonna kick some dirt, you understand?" - Lou Pinella

by Lou In Blue on May 16, 2008 9:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Cubs would move Dome to CF

but only for a LH bat. Look down the mountain at Chad Tracy. He could be our RF if Edmonds busts.

by DGU on May 16, 2008 9:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ridiculous

There is zero chance Matt Holliday is going anywhere. It’s stupid to even pay this type of reporting any attention.

Mr. Towers, tear down this wall (er, I mean give us back Greg Maddux) !

by MDBNIU on May 16, 2008 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well that settles it.

I’m stupid.

If you couldn’t tell, I was being somewhat lighthearted about this post and just wanted to talk about what situations we might go after a non-CF, SS or 2B.

Of course, I can’t expect you to understand lighthearted wonderings about baseball. After all, you’re a super serious former player.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Bildo, you might want to inform

us that your post is not totally serious in nature. That way, we can get all of our smart-assed silly sarcastic comments ready to post.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 16, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn't good enough for you?

However, half the fun of participating is a blog is dreaming things up.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 16, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

That settles it? :)

"What a great call! Your doing a fantastic job, but people expect me to come out here and be upset. So I'm gonna kick some dirt, you understand?" - Lou Pinella

by Lou In Blue on May 16, 2008 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're offended about strong opinions on a topic like the Cubs

Then you should go somewhere else.

my owner buys me the expensive cat food, but i'll just eat this dvd shrinkwrap and that bug over there

by dr stabbingworth on May 16, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

strong opinions are one thing.

Blue Mike is entirely something else.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I can see a trade --

just not to Chicago. Boston (Ramirez contract is finally up), New York(s), Seattle, and Detroit make more sense, depending on when/if that move get made.

by Damen Jackson on May 16, 2008 11:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Take a look at Holliday's splits

Away from Coors Field he turns in to Matt Murton. Why give up our farm system when we’ve already got him IN the farm system? Seriously, look at his splits. Is that a guy you want to pay huge $ for many years?

If Holliday were smart he’d get his big contract BEFORE he leaves Coors. He’s a product of his environment just like Todd Helton, Larry Walker, Dante Bichette, Andres Galaraga and Vinny Castilla are/were.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 16, 2008 11:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They're extreme, but not horrifying.

What bothers me is the fact he’s hit nearly twice as many HR at home as one the road.

For everyone’s benefit:

Home: .364/.426/.664/1.090

Away: .274/.336/.444/.780

And this all to say that no one here is really advocating trading for Holliday; it was intended to be much more whimsical than that. Settle down.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct

The splits aren’t horrifying because Holliday is a competent hitter away from Coors, but the splits are significant and extreme. And by competent I mean non-HOF, non all-star, non-star. He’s Matt Murton, Jeff Conine, Cliff Floyd….. you get the point. In fact Murton has better career numbers than Holliday has career road numbers. So when it comes to Matt Holliday, caveat emptor.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 16, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's moot, anyway.

Rockies are likely to give him his money, and given these splits, he’d be silly to turn it down.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

And whoever gives him big money without seeing him hit away from Denver would be silly too. Wonder how much that is going to factor into Colorado’s decision to pay him, and I wonder how they break it to him during the negotiations that he’s really not as good as he thinks? Tough position for either side to be in really.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 16, 2008 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's two different element to home/away splits here.

There’s the actual park effect, and there’s the Coors Hangover effect – it’s hard to get your timing down when facing tough breaking pitches if you play half your games in Coors Field, where balls don’t break like that. Using a player’s Home/Road splits as a guide to how they’d play outside of Coors is only about half the story.

And people tend to overrate the park factor at Coors now that the humidor has been installed. It’s still a hitter’s park, but it’s no longer as harsh as it was – it’s just a shade better than where the Phillies or Diamondbacks play right now, and nobody says these sorts of things about their players.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on May 16, 2008 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What strikes me most

about his splits is that his avg and obp both go up .090, but his slugging goes up .220 points. It’s pretty obvious that Coors is helping him all the way around but especially with power. That said, I’ve always heard that Colorado hitters used to stuggle on the road because they got used to hitting fat curveballs etc at home then weren’t able to adjust fast enough when they went on the road. Kind of makes you wonder what kind of hitter Holliday would really be if he left Coors.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 16, 2008 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The wierdest thing to me

was the startling disparity in triples.

Home: 16 3B

Away: 7 3B

I know Coors has a big OF, but that just strikes me as odd. I’ve always wondered What he’d be like away from Coors. Perhaps not as “meh” as Murton-IMO he’s too good of a hitter for that-but maybe not as good as he is, so maybe a good comparison is Nick Markakis?

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think the comparison to Murton only works on paper, not in real life. You’re right, he’s a better hitter than that. Markakis is probably a good comp, maybe guys like Francoeur and Rios are a couple others. I would guess he’d top out around .290/25/90 in most other places depending on the team/park/spot in the order.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 16, 2008 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Francoeur...

That’s probably the best comp for an away-from-Coors Matt Holliday. Markakis is probably a slight downgrade in power. Rios is a great defender, though, IMO much better than Francoeur or Holliday, though all three have pretty good arms. Those triple slash number sound about right to me.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 16, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love for that to happen...

but I’d rather have a defensive outfield due to the Cubs great offensive power.

by wrigleyrocker12 on May 16, 2008 3:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

sorry...

but i don’t think we need him (well we could use him) but we don’t absolutely need him. His contract would be very expensive and we have plenty of outfielders. Soriano, Hoffpauir (.323. average in AAA) Fukudome, Edmonds, Murton, Johnson, Kroeger, Pie, etc. Outfield is not the area we should spend our money on. I also agree with that guy from Denver. Holliday is a cover page player and the Rockies really don’t want to lose him so I’m sure that they would offer him a hefty contract

by columbusOHcubsfan on May 16, 2008 6:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Problem is

The Rox would probably like to keep him but they are going to end up overpaying considering the nubmers he puts up there. If they’re going to overpay for anyone in that park you would think it should be good pitchers, but that didn’t seem to work out for them when they tried it. Of course, maybe they just chose the wrong pitchers… And how much would they have to overpay a good pitcher to go there anyways? Tough park to build a team in.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 16, 2008 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They've already tried that with pitchers.

Darryl Kile, Mike Hampton. Both had horrendous years in Denver. My guess is that Jeff Francis leaves when he’s eligible for free agency.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 16, 2008 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

for the rockies to be good...

they need great hitting. Denver is not a pitcher’s city, good point Al. I think this was exhibited last year when they hit great and had descent pitching, great in the playoffs, that kept them in ball games. It is difficult for Denver to get stud pitchers.

by columbusOHcubsfan on May 16, 2008 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget Denny Neagle

Which raises the question, what were they thinking? Sure Neagle was pretty good for a few years but most of that came when he was at his prime baseball age and/or pitching for Mazzone in Atlanta. Looking back I don’t see any reason why they thought he would be good in Denver, much less worth that contract. Hampton actually started out well but the wheels fell off at some point his first year and he was even worse the second year. And iirc DK had a big curveball, which also makes you wonder why they thought he’d be any good there. Brandon Webb and his sinker might work out in that park but curveball/fastball pitchers are likely going to struggle.

Colorado also needs to shy away from overpaying guys like Holliday imo. If they are going to pay someone stupid money it should be a player that’s already proven to be great, someone like a Vlad Guerrero. Just imagine what he would do in that park. Holliday is good but he’s no Guerrero and the Rox should avoid paying him as such.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 17, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano going to right field...

the first thing that comes to mind is his arm, and with the tail that he throws with I dont think would work as well from that angle

by fuku-domenation on May 16, 2008 11:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I’m not seeing the difference. I’m not a physicist though but it seems to me that as long as he squares himself up before the throw it shouldn’t matter where he’s throwing from or where he’s throwing too. He creates the angles with his body, not from where he’s at on the field. Right field to second base is no different than left field to third base. Throwing to home from right would be a similar angle as throwing to second from left, just further distant.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on May 17, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs