A Year Later, Jones A Marlin

by Al on May 19, 2008 8:44 AM CDT Comment 26 comments

Remember a year ago when Jacque Jones was all but traded to the Marlins in late June, only to have the deal scotched at the last minute?

Today, the Marlins signed Jones as a free agent. The Cubs and Tigers will be on the hook for most of the contract; Florida will only have to pay, as the Cubs are doing with Jim Edmonds, a pro-rated portion of the minimum salary.

What that link says that astounds me is this:

Jones has played all three outfield positions in the big leagues and gives the Marlins another leadoff option now that the team has moved shortstop Hanley Ramirez from the top spot to No. 3 in the batting order.

Is that ESPN speculation or something that the Marlins are actually considering? Because Jones isn't a good leadoff option at all. The last time he batted leadoff was 2003 (and he wasn't good at it then, posting a .314 OBA while batting first; his career OBA batting first is .328).

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Yeah, Jones is most certainly not a good leadoff option.

I feel very bad for how Jones was treated while he was here. He provided average production (above average in his first year and below average in his second year) in his two years in Chicago, and he did so at a slightly above average price. He played hard everyday. He acquitted himself pretty well in my opinion.

That said, even in his prime he’s a terrible idea for a leadoff man. The guy simply can’t get on base. He’s a decent option as a #6 or #7 hitter in a platoon role, assuming that his slow start is just a slump and not evidence that he’s done.

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 8:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice to see Jacque get a chance...

...to end his career on his own terms, assuming the Marlins don’t drop him like a hot rock should he do nothing for them as well. And I agree that batting him lead-off is a laughable idea at best.

The idea that the Marlins might even consider making Jacque the lead-off man also brings up a topic addressed in this Chris DeLuca article from yesterday’s Sun-Times. That is, true lead-off-type hitters are pretty scarce in Major League baseball right now. Yet another reason we Cubs fans should just let the whole Soriano thing go.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by dat cubfan daver on May 19, 2008 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Best of luck to him

Although he didn’t quite live up to expectations with the Cubs, he impressed me by playing hard despite all the abuse he took. Nice to see him get another chance.

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on May 19, 2008 9:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Leadoff?

In the words of Jesus Quintana: “Laughable, man.”

Versus lefties, Strap looks like Ted Lilly, minus the results. He’s stepped in so many buckets that he’s received a cease and desist letter from Rubbermaid.

Seriously, let’s think about this. What ML team in their right mind would consider pinch hitting for their leadoff guy? Because that’s exactly what you’d have to do vs. a lefty.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 19, 2008 10:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing about leadoff

I find it pretty ridiculous when people say that the leadoff man only leads off when the game starts and the rest is like any other batter. Geez. Being leadoff is not about leading off an inning, it’s about getting on base for your best hitters who follow.

by Luis on May 19, 2008 11:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Also in the NL

with the pitcher hitting 9 and usually a defensive SS/CF hitting 8 (or vice versa if you are certain NL Central managers) odds are higher that the 1 hitter leadsoff again than any other hitter.

And, how is it a small thing that the 1 hitter is guaranteed to lead off at least once? That is 20-25% of all your at bats where you are guaranteed to leadoff. Plus, you get to see the pitchers first live pitching of the day, where they are just trying to find the strikezone/release point/etc.

The 1 hitter is not like any other batter. He is the leadoff man.

by californiachicagoan on May 19, 2008 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dang, beat me to it.

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's also somewhat factually incorrect.

The leadoff hitter (in the NL, at least) is more likely to bat leadoff than any other hitter in the lineup, because the #9 hitter (generally the pitcher) is WAY more likely to make an out. Therefore, the #9 hitter is also way more likely to make the 3rd out of an inning. Last year, for example, 237 of Soriano’s 614 PA were with none out and none on. Which means he had roughly 102 PA in which he led off an inning other than the first. Obviously, that doesn’t account for the possibility of following a HR with no outs from the #9 hitter and the possibility that some of his none out none on PA were from a spot other than the #1 spot in the order (he had 37 AB in other spots). But the point remains that he probably led off an inning other than the first on average nearly once per game.

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got any specific numbers for this?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 19, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those were specific numbers...

They were the 2007 splits for Soriano from ESPN.com. Here’s the site:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3993&type=batting&year=2007

Sorry I didn’t link it the first time.

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To clarify...

the raw numbers (237 PA with none out/on, the 614 total PA, and the 37 AB outside of the #1 spot) were from ESPN.com.

I did a rough calculation of 102 PA in none out/on situations that weren’t in the first inning by simply subtracting the number of games played (135) from 237. That estimate may be a slight underestimate, as Soriano did not lead off in all 135 games he played last year. He may have actually had more PA leading off an inning other than the first. However, given that he may have led off an inning batting in either the #3, #5, or #8 spot, and given that he may have batted with none out following a HR from the #9 spot, the 102 PA estimate is probably not too far off.

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, but that's just for Soriano.

What about for ALL leadoff hitters?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 19, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't have that readily available...

But considering that we have pretty good hitting pitchers, do you see any reason that it would be dramatically different for other teams?

I guess Soriano could be an outlier, but I’d be surprised if that’s the case.

By comparison, Rickie Weeks had 184 of his 501 PA with none out and none on, or roughly 68 in 116 games. Eckstein had 189 of his 446 PA in that situation, or roughly 72 non 1st inning leadoff appearances in 117 games. Rollins had 292 PA of his 765 total PA, or roughly 130 extra in 162 games). Again, these are likely to be slight underestimates, as they don’t account for the number of games in which the player didn’t bat in the #1 spot.

I haven’t seen a site that puts this all together, but I haven’t looked that hard, either. But based on this sample of four leadoff hitters (or over 25% of the NL last year), I’d say it’s probably not far off of what Soriano did (around 0.7 times leading off an inning per game after the first inning).

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So it's really NOT a significant number of times.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 19, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, that probably IS a significant number of times...

you only have about 3.5 more PA per game after the 1st inning for a #1 hitter. So 0.7 out of 3.5 is about 20% of your remaining AB. That is certainly significant. Consider that, if it was completely random, you’d expect only 11% of your remaining PA to be in the leadoff spot. You’re basically twice as likely to lead off again in a game than anybody else.

Now, in total, the difference would appear to be about 0.35 expected PA leading off after the first inning. So you’re getting an additional leadoff appearance every three games. It’s not a LOT, but it probably is significant.

by SouthernCub on May 19, 2008 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A brief visit by the Grammar Police

Al, I know you’re a stickler for these kinda things, so I must point it out: In the title of this fanpost, shouldn’t that second ‘a’ be a small ‘a’?

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by dat cubfan daver on May 19, 2008 11:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

No, because...

... my own style for this site has me capitalizing every word.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 19, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wEll...

iT iS yOur sIte aL, aNd wE aLl hAve oUr oWn pArticular sTyle wE lIke tO fOllow. i fOr oNe hAve dEcided tO cApitalize eVery sEcond lEtter.

pEace oUt.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on May 19, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

gO rIght aHead.

tHat’s gOing tO gEt rEal hArd tO kEep uP aFter aWhile.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 19, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, yeah...you do.

I hadn’t noticed that before. For some reason, that ‘A’ stuck out at me. Nevermind!

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by dat cubfan daver on May 19, 2008 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it made it

look like a name. Jones A Tiger. He’s a growly lad…

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 19, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is Dusty Baker still working part time for ESPN?

Or has he infected some people there with his aversion to clogging the bases?

by californiachicagoan on May 19, 2008 11:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Doubt he's allowed to do that

Although once the Reds fire him by September he’ll probably be back in the studio providing “analysis” next to John Kruk, who I’m convinced is only there to provide a human punch line.

"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"

by cubs0505 on May 19, 2008 12:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs