The talent must play.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 10:59 AM CDT

For too many years the complaint against the Cubs farm system is that it can't produce position players. This year we have the potential to see three position player prospects become integral parts of the team, if only we would let the talent play.

The Cubs lead the majors in runs scored with 174. The Diamondbacks are the only team that is close. Our offense is not a problem. If ever there was a time for a club to bear with the struggles of a rookie hitter, it would be when you lead the league in offense and are in first place (or about to take back first place tonight).

Geovany Soto is already playing and rewarding the club for it. Lou has said he is looking for ways to get Ronny Cedeno more playing time. Felix Pie also must play. The case for each to play is more obvious than you might expect.

Felix Pie hits right-handed pitchers better than Reed Johnson. It's true. Look at their split stats. Over the past two years that Pie has been in the majors, here are their split stats v. RHP

RJ - In 251 ABs, he has 55 H, 9 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR

FP - In 178 ABs, he has 42 H, 9 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR

Felix is hitting for significantly more power. Johnson has a .255 SLG compared to Pie's .371.

RJ - In 281 plate appearances has 13 BB, 52 SO, 5 GDP

FP - In 199 plate appearances has 15 BB, 46 SO, 1 GDP

Someone yesterday said they "expected Pie to hit into a double play" the minute he came to bat. I don't know why you would expect him to do that since it was his first against RHP. And how many of you realized that Reed Johnson strikes out a whole lote more often than Felix against RHP? Are you surprised that Felix walks more often than Reed? Check the numbers. It's true.

But even if Reed Johnson could hit RHP better than Pie, it makes no sense to play him now while the offense is running on all cylinders and the defense needs help.

And it's the defensive issue that seals the deal for Cedeno v. Theriot. Of course, Ronny (.378/.462/.578) is far out-hitting Ryan (.340/.409/.447), but that's in limited playing time and both batting averages are bound to come down. The problem is that the Ryan Theriot as SS experiment has to come to an end. He's a 2B, not a SS. His range and arm are clearly not up to the task. If you think Ryan Theriot is for real as a hitter, then maybe it's time to trade Mark DeRosa to a team in need of a 3B (Dodgers), but the better option here is to convince the Rockies that Theriot is the long-term answer to their 2B problem and the short-term answer to their SS hole. Theriot is just the kind of player Clint Hurdle would salivate over and if Jim Hendry can extract one of Colorado's blocked prospects, the Cubs will have done well.

I'm convinced that Theriot's defense at SS is one of the reasons our pitchers have been struggling. There are many ground ball outs that he just doesn't get to and that kind of frustration can affect a pitcher's composure doubling and tripling the harm done by extending the inning.

The stats to date say the Cubs are better off having Pie hit against RHP and Cedeno play SS. What's more, Pie and Cedeno have drawn scouts praise, both BA Top 100 prospects in the past. If it's not time to play your prospects when you're hitting and winning, and they're hitting better than the bench players that are blocking them, then when is the time to play them?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Excellent post

I agree about Pie, and would want to see Cedeno play SS for several full games before pursuing any trade.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on May 2, 2008 11:11 AM CDT 0 recs

Seconded.

More than several games, more like a month.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 2, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up 0 recs

Nice thought-out article.

n/t

by zevkalman on May 2, 2008 11:31 AM CDT 0 recs

Agreed

I’m all for a straight CF platoon. I’m still not sold on Pie but he has looked a little better and the Cubs really need to decide if he is the future.

I’ve always been a Cedeno fan. I think he has talent. It is tough to bench Theriot right now so I’ll give Lou the choice here. Long-term I do think Cedeno is the best option.

by rlpete on May 2, 2008 11:41 AM CDT 0 recs

agree and disagree

Time to give Cedeno a shot at SS…........but it’s real tough when Theriot is hitting .340 with regular playing time so I don’t think that will happen soon. If they revisit Roberts talks anytime Theriot could be bait for them as well as they nedd a SS.

As for Pie….....numbers show he’s hit RHP better than Reed but there’s got be a better short term alternative out there (Lofton?) Hopefully Colvin takes over next year…..... Great post though….....

by plenz on May 2, 2008 11:45 AM CDT 0 recs

-1

It’s easy to bench Theriot because that’s the emptiest .340 since Neifi Perez had a good week. He’s only managed to slap 6 doubles and solo triples & homers thus far so he’s “slugging” a paltry .447. Then there’s his horrible defense and weak arm in the field. Finally with 5 CS and more multiple mental lapses on the bases than Moises Alou, he makes more outs than anyone else on the team. I’m convinced that Cedeno would have made the play on that ground ball up the middle that Theriot barely kept in the infield. He’s hurting the team more than he’s helping it.

I was at the game yesterday. Sat behind home plate 3 rows off the field. I had a better angle than the home plate ump on that ridiculous out call on Fukudome. His strike zone was all over the place too.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on May 2, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Forgot the intangible

It appears Reed Johnson is having a resurgance, a career year. It’s only one month but teams with players who suddenly have career years at the same time do very, very well. This could be the case this year with our cubs.

Pie, Johnson, Theriot or Cedeno are not going anywhere. We have a deep bench and that’s a plus. Let’s leave it at that. By July we’ll see if there’s a weakness. If we’re in front and still positioned and one of the 2 or 3 elite teams in the NL, you may see a trade to get us in the series, and that will probably be a pitcher

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on May 2, 2008 12:31 PM CDT 0 recs

-1

Reed is NOT having a career year. His career SLG is .407 and he’s only slugging a pathetic .321. His OPS isn’t even over .700. His OBA is only slightly above his career average. In the past week, he’s really struggled with a line of .179/.281/.179. He’s really nothing more than a 4th OF who should get at most 3-4 starts a week giving each of the starters a day off. Pie should be starting every day, lefty or righty. He was a nice stopgap when Soriano was out but now his deficiencies are being exposed.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on May 2, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up 0 recs

Young Felix

I agree with you. The kids has to play. He’s been working on his stroke, and learning at the Major League level cannot be easy. However, I think he has the natural ability to make the adjustments needed.

Take a good look around baseball at the 8th place hitters in the NL (9th spot for MIL & STL) and the 9th spot hitters in the AL. How does Pie stack up? Not too bad, I think.

I suggest a straight, strict platoon with him and Johnson, with whichever one doesn’t start coming in for Soriano in the late innings.

Good post. Nicely done.

Soriano should hit 5th. Period.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 2, 2008 12:41 PM CDT 0 recs

Unbelievable

I can’t believe people so readily discount the value and contributions of Reed Johnson and Ryan Theriot. I can guarantee you that Lou Piniella and the vast majority of knowledgeable Cub fans do not.

I think it sucks that some are ready to poke all sorts of holes in Reed Johnson in subliminal defense of Felix Pie being granted more playing time. Pie needs to step up and win the battle for playing time instead of people shooting Johnson in the back.

by MDBNIU on May 2, 2008 1:16 PM CDT 0 recs

How can Pie win playing time if he doesn't play?

Oh, I’ll love to see Blue Mike’s answer to this one.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 2, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up 0 recs

The organization has quit on Felix Pie

Can you blame them? No. So lets not get into revisionist history and state, “if only Felix Pie was granted more playing time…” I am of the opinion that Pie will be gone for good within a matter of weeks. Just as soon as Hendry acquires as suitable enough “Plan B” to go in complement with Reed Johnson the rest of 2008.

by MDBNIU on May 2, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up 0 recs

You may be right

and if you are and agree with that plan then you waive the right ever to complain again about the Cubs not developing prospects. It takes time to develop prospects. If now is not the time to do it, then it never is.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 5:40 PM CDT up 0 recs

This is simple.

Pie is hitting RHP better than RJ over the past two years. If you don’t want to call it Pie winning playing time, then call it RJ losing playing time. I’m glad to have RJ on the team and think he will do well in a limited role. It’s not shooting him in the back to point out that he’s not the best player on our team for a certain role.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 4:34 PM CDT up 0 recs

knowledgeable fans

Interesting what you consider a knowledgeable fan.

Mr. Blue Mike, something came to my mind after reading your post and recalling previous remarks you have made:
Who is your favorite non-white player currently on the Cubs?

by Canseco's Roid Party on May 2, 2008 5:50 PM CDT up 0 recs

those stats

the one question i would have in comparing johnson to pie is where did pie get those walks? getting a ton of walks hitting in front of the pitcher isn’t quite as impressive as taking walks in the lead off slot…

by billywan on May 2, 2008 1:18 PM CDT 0 recs

That's a worthwhile point.

But Pie is still showing a lot more power.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 4:35 PM CDT up 0 recs

Interesting plan

I don’t take your plan where you do, but I have had some similar thoughts about WS championship teams. The part about these teams having more than their share of players who have the best or one of the best years of their careers even though they are be no means all HOF bound players.

I don’t particularly see where this takes us to having Pie out in CF every game. You can’t assume that because Pie is talented that he will therefore come around. They are working as hard as they are with him because he represents the lefthanded bat they want in the lineup.

I’m not ready to say Cedeno is a better or more talented player than Theriot either. Although, some of what Theriot has done lately is concerning. Cedeno should be given more playing time to see what he does; he’s earned that.

by AboutTheCubs on May 2, 2008 3:15 PM CDT 0 recs

I wouldn't say that Pie is a sure thing.

But now’s the time to play a rookie and show confidence in him. If you can’t let a rookie work out his kinks when you’re outscoring all of baseball, then when can you? And if Pie’s still not getting it at the half-way point, there will be all sorts of options. KC alone has 3 different left-handed CFs we could try and acquire.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 4:37 PM CDT up 0 recs

No one...

...is a sure thing, and certainly, Pie’s hitting has left something to be desired so far.

I am not saying you completely right the guy off (although some in the organization don’t think he will pan out) but, he is going to have to show he is improving without starting 6-7 straight games. The Cubs are just not in a position to trot him out there unless the circumstance dictates he could have some success.

This type of rookie playing time is not unheard of, and many have had to show improvement, without starting more than 50% of the games.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 2, 2008 7:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

Again, I'll ask the question -

If this is not the position at which you can trot out the rookie – the position in which we are winning and outscoring all of baseball – then when is the position?

I’d argue that those who don’t want to see Pie play against every RHP would never find a position in which they would be willing to develop a rookie.

Of course, winning teams like both of last year’s WS teams developed rookies who struggled early on, and both went on to help those teams make the WS.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 10:51 PM CDT up 0 recs

The only answer...

...I can give you is this; Piniella does not have a lot of confidence in the guy, and that is about as simple as it can get.

Comparing him to some of the other guys is easy, but neither of them had close to the K rate and abysmal OBP as Pie.

I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a few more starts against RHP’s, but that is up to Piniella to decide.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 4, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up 0 recs

I said today

that I expected him to hit into a DP not because the numbers but because lately, his crappy approach to hitting has resulted in nothing but failure for this team.

So say what you will, I had a bad feeling with Pie up, the game would be over and not go on past his AB (which could only have resulted from a GDP), and I was right.

Funny thing was, I was on a shuttle bus from work refreshing my blackberry to see and when I hit the refresh button, I closed my eyes because of this feeling.

You know what I opened them to…

Calm down.

by Kinky Reggae on May 2, 2008 3:47 PM CDT 0 recs

I will add

his big home run got us all excited maybe his minor league coach had some positive effect on him, and then he just went downhill again.

Calm down.

by Kinky Reggae on May 2, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up 0 recs

He went downhill since the HR?

Are you serious? This is another case of our perception of the player being totally overthrown by the stats. Since the HR, and not including the HR game, Pie is hitting .250 with a .350 OBP. His last two games have bad box scores, but those of us who watched them know he was victimized by absurd strikezones. Take out those games and he was hitting .364 with a .429 OBP.

Let the talent play!

by DGU on May 2, 2008 4:55 PM CDT up 0 recs

Dead serious.

How can you simply remove games or ABs that YOU feel were unfair. That sounds as if you think no other player who may be hitting above .300, ever sees a bad or wide stike zone.

Come on, I like Pie and want him to succeed but face it, that HR was the last glimmer of hope we have seen and it is starting to make me nervous. Now mind you, I am typing this after I have seen him smack a double and a single in the last 2 days so I am hoping but please don’t toss out ABs or even games to make your point.

Calm down.

by Kinky Reggae on May 4, 2008 12:27 AM CDT up 0 recs

The point was made without tossing those stats

because a .350 OBP from a CF with plus defense is something we should take all day from a 23 year old. Now with a larger sample size, we see that Pie’s OBP over the past 10 days is up to .400.

The problem with micro-analyzing Pie is that you will always see more failures than successes from even the best players. Derrek Lee makes an out 3/5 times. You say, “that HR was the last glimmer of hope,” even as you say he’s hit a double and a single in the last 2 days. Of course Pie’s not going to hit a HR everyday. But he is hitting XBH regularly over the past two weeks.

by DGU on May 4, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

I don't fault you for having a bad feeling.

I get bad feelings about Cubs all the time. I remember having a horrible sinking feeling a few years ago when Neifi Perez came to the plate with the bases loaded. I was sure he was going to find a way to end the rally and the inning. Instead he hit a grand slam. I was wrong that time, but right to have a bad feeling. The stats showed that Neifi was very likely to make an out.

After yesterday’s game, there were calls for Pie to get demoted and have no role on the team, etc. But the stats show that if Reed Johnson had been up in that situation, he was more likely to GIDP, less likely to hit Cedeno in, etc. That surprised me and I think I’m not the only one it surprises, because a lot of us developed a false perception that Reed Johnson was really helping this team against both RHP and LHP. He’s great against the latter, but against the former, he should be pinch-hit for everytime.

by DGU on May 2, 2008 4:51 PM CDT up 0 recs

No thanks

With how much Reed Johnson has struggled I could see Pie getting more ABs and not being too upset about it. However, to me Pie is definitely not a long term solution for this team so I’m not interested in “developing”. He is Corey Patterson part deux. There is no way the holes in his swing are going to magically disappear.

And I don’t see Lou stomaching a .500 OPS for any extended period of time from Pie. I know I’m probably in the minority, but I agree with Lou here. Problem is Reed Johnson is no great solution either.

by Luis on May 2, 2008 4:41 PM CDT 0 recs

I disagree with Talent must play

Having more talent, or better numbers in the minor leagues doesn’t make you better major leagues. Ryan Theriot is 10 in the NL in batting average right now and 12th in baseball, only a fool would bench him right now. His defense isn’t great but not the reason the pitchers have struggled. The only starters who have struggled are Lilly due to lack of velocity and Rich Hill due to lack of control. I do think we need to find away to give Cedeno a few starts a week though. Maybe give DeRosa a day off per week and maybe Theriot a day off per week. As for Pie and Johnson I think when it’s all said and done the guy who’s performing better will play. Pie will get playing time and if he shows he can keep improving at the plate the more playing time he will get. If he struggles like he did before the last week or so, Johnson will get most of the playing time. Lets not forget the guy hit 319/390 in 2006. Will he do that again? Probably not but is it possible he could have improved as a hitter. But honestly Piniella shouldn’t change anything he is doing. Seriously people were leading baseball in runs scored(by 9 runs)and in OBP and OPS so far this season. You don’t change anything when your line-up is producing that way. When guys drop off or we stop scoring runs so well, then we will make changes, right now everything is wonderful.

by cubsfan25 on May 2, 2008 5:15 PM CDT 0 recs

It's exactly my point that we are leading in runs scored by a massive amount.

If that doesn’t give us the comfort level to deal with the struggles of a young player, then what will? The Red Sox let Pedroia play through it and were rewarded last year. Why can’t we do the same? Because our prospect-psyches have been permanently scarred by the specter of Corey Patterson?

If Felix Pie gets it figured out, he will be a very, very valuable ML player. Why not give him a month of regular playing time to see?

But this is where it gets even more maddening – Pie is hitting better than Reed Johnson v. RHP this year and over the past two years. So, if you say, “Play the better player,” the answer is “Play Pie.” If you say, “Play the higher ceiling player,” the answer is “Play Pie.” In what world does it make sense not to play Pie?

by DGU on May 2, 2008 5:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

Ok, now to The Riot.

Player A is batting .340/.409/.447 and gets lot of dirt on his uniform.
Player B is batting .378/.462/.578 and gets to slow rollers hit up the middle.
Player B’s minor league claim to fame is that he was named to Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list.
Player A’s minor league claim to fame is that he failed at being a switch hitter, which actually means he’s better than we’d think.
Player A is a 28 year old 2B.
Player B is a 25 year old SS.

Now, which does “the fool” play… at SS?

by DGU on May 2, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

I agree with this post 100%

But the thing you have to remember is Lou is wanting to win now, and he’s not going to wait for someone to develop. He’s going to play whoever is the hottest, and if Pie goes 0-3 in a game, and Johnson gets on, Johnson’s getting the start.

It’s kind of sad, because you see sparks of awesomeness in Pie, but he just hasn’t gotten a fair chance.

Same thing with Cedeno…I’d love to see him get some regular PT, but it just isn’t going to happen right now. Theriot would be an awesome guy to have come off the bench.

by walsh2317 on May 2, 2008 5:46 PM CDT 0 recs

And I agree with yours

It would be ideal to allow talent all the opportunities and time necessary to develop right there on a major league playing field, but the season is defined as it is and the Cubs are supposed to win a championship within a season of finite length.

Also, if talent always determined which players would get a team further ahead in the wins column, then surely Soriano would be contributing more than he did before his leg injury and contributing more now that he has returned. His performance is disappointing, but does it mean that he isn’t talented? Certainly not, he is one of the most talented position players on the team.

by AboutTheCubs on May 3, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up 0 recs

"Within a season of finite length"

This is key. You can order the Cubs’ goals simply:
1) Win the WS.
2) Get to the playoffs.
3) Win today.

Obviously you need to accomplish goal 3 85-95 times to accomplish goal 2 and you can’t accomplish goal 1 without goal 2. But sometimes the best way to accomplish Goal 1 isn’t exactly the best way to accomplish Goal 3. Playing Felix Pie may not be the best option to accomplish goal 3 right now (even though against RHP, he is a better option than Reed Johnson), but he is the best option for accomplishing Goals 2 and 1.

A developed Felix Pie will be a huge weapon in the field and at the plate, something better than either Reed Johnson or Coco Crisp can offer (against RHP). A developed Felix Pie gives the Cubs the best chance of accomplishing Goal 1.

by DGU on May 3, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up 0 recs