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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Reasons to be Optimistic

I was just reading Barry Rozner in the Daily Herald and he managed to pump me up with his prediction that, despite th erough patch, the Cubs would still win the division by 5-10 games so, in the spirit of this, here are my own reasons to keep the faith;

1)Derrek Lee; I know it's been said before but I'm still incredibly pumped by the return of his power stroke.  he's back to being one of the most all around dangerous hitters in the league and that. combined with his gold glove defense and team leadership bodes very well for this team.

2) The emergence of Geovany Soto; I admit I was very nervous during his eight strikeout spell last weekend but he's shown that that was more of an abberation than anything else.  What I really love about this kid is how well he bounced back after the rough patch-it says a lot about his mental toughness and maturity. He'll no doubt have more bad streaks as the season goes on but I'm now very confident that he has the mental makeup to get through them.

3)Bob Howry should significantly improve as the season goes on.  like they say in Vegas, "the trend is your friend" and each year his fast ball has improved significantly starting sometime in May.   We'll need him more than ever in mid-season.

4)Big Z; we have to be happy with his strong start.  Maybe last years's contract talks were more of a distraction than we thought.  whatever the reason though, he's finally showing signs of being a true ace.

5)Aramis Ramirez; I know he bugs people with his perceived lack of hustle but, say what you want about him, once he starts to heat up, he's money in the clutch.

6)Lou Pinella; He's the best possible guy yo bring this team home; a savvy baseball man who'd rather win than make friends.  This team has more than a few holes and questions but I'm very confident that if anybody can figure it out, it's Sweet Lou.

Of course there are a lot of other reasons besides these to get pumped up; Ronny Cedeno's apparent emergence, Carlos Marmol's "filthy" stuff, Kosuke Fukodome, etc.

Anyway, let's all forget about yesterday and send out some positive energy in the direction of St. Louis.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Agreed

It was a tough loss yesterday, but it’s a long, long season. We put yesterday behind us and hope for a good showing this weekend.

by Rynofan23-5 on May 2, 2008 11:41 AM CDT reply actions  

Seconded.

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 2, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

LSA

I’m what’s known as an eternal optimist. I still like Pie, and even though I’ve bitched about Soriano, I know he tends to start slowly but I’ll take two spectacular months from him and be happy.

by cubsonWGN4ever on May 2, 2008 12:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Don't forget Demp!

After 37 innings as a starter, he’s 4-0 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.108 WHIP and .173 BAA. That gives him an OPS+ of 135. Yeah, I know it’s early—but if there’s one guy clever enough to shock us all with a solid season, it’s Ryan Dempster.

Also, right now, four Cubs (DLee, Theriot, Aramis and Dome) have more than 100 ABs and all four have OPS+ well over 100. And Soto is nine ABs away from joining the club.

Again, I realize these numbers are still based on relatively small sample sizes, but we’re being optimistic here, right?

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 12:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Totally blown away

by Demp…would not have predicted that. Baseball truly is a whacky game and keeps us guessing.

Soriano should hit 5th. Period.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 2, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me too...

his hard work in the offseason is paying off, so far…he looks good

You ARE freaking out MAN!

by crw89 on May 2, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

April 13, 2007

Remember that game? Cubs led 5-0 with Z on the mound, and lost. Z looked bad, Ohman walked in a run, and after the game Lou absolutely lost it.

I was really down after that loss – thought it was a sign of things to come. I guess it was for the next month or so, but you’re right, it’s a long season.

2 or 3 from the Cards and we’re back on track heading to Cincinnati!

Soriano should hit 5th. Period.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 2, 2008 12:44 PM CDT reply actions  

side note to April 13, 2007

big Z hit a home run in that game too. Coincidence? I think not. My solution is for him to stop hitting home runs!

Soriano should hit 5th. Period.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 2, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Miscellaneous statistic!

The Cubs are 9-4 in games in which Z has homered.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 2, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

phew...I was worried I'd have to stop celebrating when Big Z goes yard!

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks Al

unlike Woody these days, you always come in and get the save!

I have faith he’ll get it together, BTW.

Soriano should hit 5th. Period.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 2, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've come in from the ledge and want more blue kool-aid

I echo all you’ve said-i too was leery of Soto as a #1 catcher-but he looks like he’ll be fine. Cedeno REALLY gives reason for hope—it looks like the mental/emotional finally caught up with the obvious physical tools that have always been there.

In many of the games we’ve lost-fluke outfield play-base running goof ups and like yesterday—just a plain great at bat by Braun vs. Wood and hitting what could/should have been an out pitch have beaten us.

We’ve been in the games and could have won many of them….a couple fundamental errors made the difference and I believe they’ll be fewer and farther between as the season progresses. My main worry is the overuse of Marmol—but it looks like we’ll be fine!

BBWAA's name should be changed to "Power in the hands of Fools"

by cubfever7 on May 2, 2008 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Marmol

I thought about that yesterday…hope he’s still this effective in September and October. Once Howry gets it together, it’ll take the pressure off on Carlos, aka TBSMIB – the best setup man in baseball!

Soriano should hit 5th. Period.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 2, 2008 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

#6 is my #1

Lou overhauled the roster last year (or at least got Hendry to do so) and changed the attitude – completely – in less than half a season.

Everyone loves the manager when the team is winning and everyone piles on when the team is losing, but I really think hiring Piniella was the single best decision Henrdy has made as GM. The guy is a winner, and as someone else said, he’s not here to make friends.

by Shanghai Badger on May 2, 2008 12:54 PM CDT reply actions  

"As someone else said"

As YOU said, bluekoolaide. Sheesh, maybe I have A.D.D. If it helps me forget yesterday’s result, that’s not a bad thing . . . not a good first game of the year in person.

Anyway, good post.

by Shanghai Badger on May 2, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't agree on that one

I like Lou but I think that he has been very bad re strategy this year. He is
consistantly over using and over thinking moves. I am still agast that he RAN OUT of
player in the 8th inning of one the games I went to in Philly ( the Cubs managed to win thanks to the bad HR call). He is coddling Soriano when the entire baseball WORLD knows
he is a BAD leadoff hitter. He is in love with the scrappy guys from LSU but thinks a guy
with a lifefime .296 average has no place on the team ( you know who I am talking about)

Don’t get me wrong. I am not pessimistic on the team but I am not fond of much of Lou’s
on field moves this year.

by Doggie Stalker on May 2, 2008 1:19 PM CDT reply actions  

I agree that there has been questionable moves

But am willing to concede two things:

1) the managers know their personnel better
2) there are reasons for some things that we’ll never hear

Do I think he screwed up by leaving in Sori? Absolutely, and I turned to my dad and said so as soon as the change was made. But overall, he’s improved the attitude and the ability of the team.

At least playing for him in the past isn’t going to give you an advantage over actual performance, unlike his predecessor.

by Shanghai Badger on May 2, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

The first sentence didn't come out right

It implies that you aren’t willing to concede that—not what I meant.

Should have conceded your points but added the assumptions.

by Shanghai Badger on May 2, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Optimism, concern, pessimism

Optimism…weak NL, weak NL Central, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Carlos Marmol, Jon Lieber, Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, Aramis Ramirez, Reed Johnson, Kosuke Fukudome, Henry Blanco, Daryl Ward, Lou Piniella, Larry Rothschild, the coaching staff

Concern…starting pitching in general, Rich Hill, relief pithching in general, Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz, Kevin Hart

Pessimism…Jason Marquis, Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, Mike Fontenot

by MDBNIU on May 2, 2008 1:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Waitaminute...you're only "concerned" about Kerry Wood?

Yesterday you were saying he has no business being a closer. Isn’t that pessimistic? And why does Daryl Ward get a free pass? He’s hiting 2 for 19. That’s a lot of guess-hitting hackism, no?

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yep

Kerry Wood is an enigma who has no business being closer on a playoff caliber team. Wood has blown 3 out of 7 saves already. So yeah, I’m concerned about Kerry Wood, to include the right role he should serve on this ballclub.

by MDBNIU on May 2, 2008 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

That still sounds more like pessimism to me.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

funny, to me

it sounds like a load of BS.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 2, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure

Because you are one of those quoted as saying Kerry Wood has been a terrific closer with a high save %. The numbers scream loudly to the contrary. Facts point out to Wood being lousier than even Mr. Baggy Pants Clown, aka Eric Gagne.

by MDBNIU on May 2, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wood's been lousier than Gagne SO FAR.

Then again, Gagne has a lot more experience being a closer than Kerry. And the primary number that “screams loudly” is saves converted—if I’m reading baseball-reference.com correctly, Gagne has converted 9 of 13 save opportunities, Woody has converted 4 of 9. So Gagne has gotten more opportunities. I guess that’s the downside to the Cubs repeatedly blowing out opponents.

Overall, Gagne has pitched 13.2 innings for a 5.27 ERA, 1.463 WHIP and .250 BAA.
Meanwhile, Wood has pitched 14 innings for a 5.14 ERA, .929 WHIP and .200 BAA.

So, though their ERAs are pretty close (and, uh, not particularly good), Woody has pitched a little bit more, thrown more strikes and given up fewer hits. I still believe Kerry has the mindset and stuff to be an effective closer. He just needs to work on the execution part.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

The WHIP

to me provides the fact that Wood has pitched into some bad luck as well as hits all bunched together

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on May 2, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the bunched up hits makes sense...

...as it seems like he’s either “on” or “off.”

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

True

BTW, thanks for defending us over at BCB…...like it when we are represented well, kudos.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on May 2, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ha ha...no prob. I couldn't resist going off on that one dumbass.

Now I’ve got jacob f’ing with me. Oh, well…I had to stick up for my man RJ.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by daver on May 2, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know

he advocates reprecussion and then goes off on the same thing. I just signed up too…..

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on May 2, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

True

Take note BlueMike

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on May 2, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

While my time observing at both BCBs has led me to the inescapable conclusion that some of those Brewers fans deserve to be messed with, I wouldn’t really do it right after one of their star pitchers got injured. I’d be punchin’ dudes left and right if Big Z went down, and wouldn’t take too kindly to taunting intrusions.

Even if they said something Anti-Cubs first, I probably still wouldn’t bother. I mean, it’s their site.

by HereComesASpecialBoy on May 2, 2008 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

If the situations were reversed

The same exact thing would probably happen: most of the people on our BCB would be sympathetic (and somewhat relieved, for selfish reasons), but there would probably be someone who would come over and rub some salt on the wound. I wish it weren’t the case, but…

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 2, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

If you wish it wasn't true

Then why the anti-Cub avatar instead of a pro-Brewer one?

by Shanghai Badger on May 2, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because we're rivals

Don’t get me wrong: I want the Cubs to lose. :)

The line between “wanting your team to lose” and “logging on to your blog and hurling insults at your players and post-ers,” though, isn’t a very fine one, I don’t think.

As a wise man once said,

Since BCB IS a community, you should know that “free speech” does not mean “the right to say what you want, when you want, how you want,” without being sensitive to, and respectful towards, the community as a whole. In a community, speech is not completely “free”; it comes with responsibility.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 2, 2008 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think roguejim minds if Cubs' fans wish the Brewers to lose.

He seems to understand that’s part of a fun and healthy comeptition: not wanting your competitors to beat you. For that to happen here, the Brewers have to lose the division to us. That’s different from hating, wishing harm or hurling insults at Brewers’ fans, though.

by Fraggin Judge on May 3, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Exactly.

And I’d say most of us don’t have anti-Brewers (or anti-Cardinals) avatars.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2008 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Perhaps not

but I wouldn’t be upset if you did.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 5, 2008 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ex-actly!

Thanks! Have a rec.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 5, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

don't quote him the numbers

he doesn’t care.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 2, 2008 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

cite.

find me, where, on this site, I’ve suggested Woody was a “terrific closer with a high save %”. I said he’s doing better than he’s doing worse. A 4-3 save record indicates that.

He was lights out in Spring Training, and I noted that. But as usual, you’re talking out of your ass, Blue Mike.

2008: The year we put it all together.

by drewishdrewid on May 2, 2008 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll go out...

...on a limb, and say Wood will turn out to be very dependable in the closers role, before 08 is in the books.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on May 2, 2008 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't say that's going out on a limb

There’s a pretty good chance that’s going to happen. That’s more like going out on a thick sturdy branch. lol

So nobody has to see the scroll bar on my posts!!!!

by McRipper on May 2, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 2, 2008 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

The biggest optimistic thing I can say is that Yost manages the Brewers

and Lou manages the Cubs. So, we’ll be in the playoffs. End of story.

Ask Yost if he is optimistic about the Brewers chances now that he let Gallardo finish the game with the Cubs and he overworks his 8,343 pitchers. What a sicko Yost is. It may not have hurt Gallardo’s ACL to finish yesterday’s game, but who knows…..

by zevkalman on May 2, 2008 2:18 PM CDT reply actions  

I meant to say "hurt his ACL any more than he already hurt it"

Yost should have taken Gallardo out of the game. That play looked horrible, and he was clearly in bad pain.

by zevkalman on May 2, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

On editing posts

Al, I’m surprised posters can’t go back and edit their work after they’ve posted. Many other sites include this feature and it’s quite useful. Necessary, even. Any word if SBN will add this functionality? You may have discussed this before, but I am curious (yellow).

by Emelie on May 2, 2008 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is the reason there's a "preview" button.

Comments are supposed to be posted “in the heat of the moment”—and not edited.

If you make a FanPost, you can edit it later, but not a comment.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 2, 2008 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Different Dynamic

Point taken. Thanks for the speedy response.

by Emelie on May 2, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's a huge positive.

The Brewers pitchers might be out of gas before the season is over.

by Fraggin Judge on May 2, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

The doctors know

They said continuing in the game did not exacerbate the injury.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 2, 2008 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

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