Start looking for another starter, Jim
by SamFels on May 2, 2008 7:40 PM CDT
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PrintYep, I even waited until the 2nd inning tonight to post this...
After just watching Rich Hill once again barf up anything and everything NOT over the plate, we have to face the fact that our rotation is a bit short. Some of you are going to say that we have to give Hill time to straighten out, and you're probably right, but Lou has a short temper for these sorts of things and it's long odds he'll get it. We have an ace and 4 4th starters. Where's our 2 going to come from? Gallagher? Everyone seems to agree he doesn't project as much more than a 3. Hart as a starter? Who's available elsewhere? We're still going to win this division, but we're staring at Webb, Haren, and Owings.
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Im willing to bet Hill will be sent down
Move Lieber into the rotation and call Hart back up
But yes, we need to get another starter ASAP
Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man
I think Hart is going to be stretched out to start.
Lieber goes into the rotation. Jose Ascanio might get a callup.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
That would be interesting...
Would they consider calling Cotts up? I haven’t looked at his stats in depth at AAA but I just read Josh’s minor league post and he seems to be doing well.
Aramis Ramirez- NL MVP
Kosuke Fukudome- NL ROY
Carlos Marmol- Rolaids Relief Man
I think your right...
...and I said it before the season started – Lieber would be the Cubs number 2 starter come September.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Any chance we see Gallagher promoted?
n/t
2008 Cubs: Why Beat A Team in Regulation, when you can beat them in extras?
Hart or Lieber
Certainly either one of them can fill a role, and Lieber is very unlikely to let you down, but neither of them is a #2 or even a #3. We need that. Granted we have some time to figure out where that’s going to come from, especially with the Brewers losing gallardo today, but should get to it relatively soon as the prices will only go up around the deadline.
while you're correct about Hart and Lieber not filling the 2 or 3 holes
We don’t have 2 prospect/pitcher in the organization right now….this is something that NEEDEd to be done this past offseason but was not done, and possibly not available.
This team has proved (me wrong) that it probably can continue to win even without 2 dominant pitchers….thus filling in with Lieber, I believe, is completely formidable and will work for some time.
Stretching out Hart at AAA is a good idea, but let it develop itself. Let Hill take his time to find his stroke again down there. Use Lieber in the rotation now…is he dominant? no, but he is a smart pitcher who will eat innings for us. By the time Lieber wears down, Marquis implodes, or one of the others gets in trouble, hopefully we’ll either have some answers regarding Hart, Hill, Gallagher, (?Jeff Sz), OR possilbly make a deal with a non contender…but for now, use Lieber and see what happens. We’re not going to get another dominant starter….at least not until mid-summer-which woud be a tough buy
A starter in LF?
Yes, the current dude out there can’t hit and can’t field!
got all three runs
in tonight’s game. No one else hit either.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on May 2, 2008 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
Rich Hill needs to be sent down to Iowa. Put Jon Lieber back in the rotation (he “stretched out” some tonight). I don’t know who you call up for the bullpen vacancy. Ascanio hasn’t been pitching well.
Leiber of Gallagher
it’s gonna be either Lieber, Marshall or Gallagher and Hill to the bullpen so Rothschild can straighten him out.
Gut with Marshall
I think Marshall will get the 5th starter spot. Eyre should be back soon. Lou seems to like Lieber in bullpen.
I think
Gallagher should get the nod, just my feel. I was never a big Rich Hill fan, essentially two pitches, and his fastball is not strong enough to get hitters out. He is as good as he will get. I, for one wanted him to be included in trades to get a better starter here, but some here treated him like he was Sandy Koufax. Now you won’t be able to get more than a “A” ballplayer for him.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
Not the discussion
It doesn’t matter who goes into the rotation, because a rotation of z and the pips is not going to get us to the World Series, and anything less than that makes this season a failure. I don’t even have the slightest idea who might be available mid season, but someone out there does. Edwin Jackson? Burnett? Cain? maybe see if you can get Hank Steinbrenner to usurp Cashman and give us Phil Hughes, who’s going to be very good one day?
A Move Needs To Be Made...
... because if Lilly doesn’t have it, the ‘pen is spent.
I wouldn’t doubt it Hill is sent down, and Gallagher comes up. I presume Eyre is not ready yet – no sense in bringing him up if he is not ready. When Eyre is ready, Marshalls gets sent back down, with Gallagher the long man.
Lieber is likely next into the rotation. Hill likely is out for 2-3 weeks to right the ship.
Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!
Lieber to be in pen I bet
My gut says Lieber would stay in the pen just in case another starter has a night like this. Lieber is the only reason we were able to actually compete tonight and get to extra innings. With the poor fielding of Soriano and Hill’s pitching we had no business going to the 11th inning. I don’t think many other teams would have been capable of it.
I Agree...
... not necessarily on the Lieber piece, because Marshall is capable of doing that as well if Eyre is the LOOGY. What I agree with is that without Lieber, we do not have a chance of getting to extras.
Think about it, though. It’s likely better we lost the game in the 11th as opposed to it going 15 innings, having burnt Marmol and our starter on Sunday in Marquis.
Let’s come back with a blowout win tomorrow and win the series on Sunday. Then, sweep Cincinatti. Another 5 game winning streak.
Jacque Jones is gone, and I doubt Ivan DeJesus would mind this!
i think its possible
that after tonite the cubs will send down both Hill and Fox and bring up 2 fresh arms for the next few games. i think it would make some sense to recall Ascaino and Cotts who are both pitching well at Iowa.
Marshall?
“Hill can’t start like this in the big leagues,” Piniella said. “Come on. Every time he pitches, it’s an adventure. He’s doing his best. I have no bullpen. I don’t know what the solution is. I can’t start him anymore until this thing gets taken care of. I would think that if we did something, we’d put (Sean) Marshall in the rotation, for now.”
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=184572&src=152
That kinda confuses me, Marshall hasn’t been pitching much and needs to be stretched out. I guess maybe he thinks Lieber as a long man is to valueable to lose out of the pen right now. But if we had Lieber in the rotation to give us 6-7 innings we wouldn’t really need a long man alot of the time.
I suspect...
... Lou said this because he wants a second lefty in the rotation. But you’re right, Marshall hasn’t pitched enough to do this.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Here's the thing.
If you look at the figures, a guy’s April performance does not tell us what he’s going to do for the rest of the season. I’d still take the preseason predictions of Hill over his current FIP or xFIP or whatever you want (I’d include ERA, but his ERA isn’t his problem at all – his ERA is fine).
Now if there’s an injury or a change in mechanics, that’s one thing. But it doesn’t sound to me like the Cubs have identified an injury or a mechanical change in Hill to correspond with his performance.
Now, if you have any scouting data to indicate what the problem is (and saying “he doesn’t have good control of his pitches isn’t scouting data – I know what his walk and strikeout rates are, thank you) then by all means, share them. But barring that sort of information, I do not see a compelling reason to remove Hill from the rotation.
Y’all can flame me now. I really don’t care.
I'm not going to flame you, but...
... I’d really like to know why you insist on going on “preseason predictions” rather than actually seeing what’s going on on the field—the guy can’t throw the ball over the plate.
This implies either an injury (doubtful, because his velocity seems OK) or a mechanical problem. I think the Cubs already have worked with Hill on bad mechanics this year as early as spring training, but this isn’t something that they have the time to work on at the major league level.
They need to send him to Iowa, if for nothing else to get his confidence back, because it has to be shot after last night.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Because what's going on on the field has less predictive value.
I’ve said this many times, in many outlets – if Hill has a mechanical problem, then yes, send him to the pen or to AAA to work it out. But the only evidence I’ve seen offered of a mechanical problem is his performance. You cannot diagnose a mechanical issue from the results, only from the process used to achieve them. If you – or someone that knows about these things – can say something like “he’s shortening up his arm action,” or some sort of an actual scouting observation that actually adds to the stats – I can figure out that a guy isn’t throwing strikes when he has that sort of a walk rate, thanks – then you’re simply trying to ascribe meaning to the results.
Now, for the boilerplate:
Here’s the question. Let’s say it’s the middle of August, and a pitcher has (so far) an ERA right around four, and for a few starts in a row, about 20 innings or so, starts walking a lot of batters. What do you do? Do you demote him to AAA?
Now answer me this: why is May any different than August? Is it?
OK, valid point.
However, this isn’t just “20 innings or so”. It’s been going on since spring training started. At one point - and I don’t have a link right now - the coaching staff said that Hill was leaning too far back, something we could all see during the spring.
It doesn’t appear that they’ve fixed this. It’s not just “walking a lot of batters”, it’s walking nearly everyone in sight and, at least last night, throwing only about 1/3 of his pitches in the strike zone.
The bullpen won’t help because you’re not going to put a guy with those sorts of troubles in critical situations, so he’s going to wind up pitching in garbage time, when the team is ahead or behind by 5+ runs… and how often does that happen?
Send him to Iowa where he can work out these problems.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
My issue is that the Cubs staff seems to have...
...”confidence” in certain guys – Wood is still the closer despite arguably worse pitching, and Lou’s response was:
“I have confidence in Kerry,” Piniella said. “These things are going to happen. You don’t want to see them happen. You don’t like when they happen. That was a tough loss for us. … Look, Kerry’s our closer, and that’s the end of the story.”
Are you willing to admit the possibility that this is just a badly-timed slump, and if Hill was simply left in the rotation and given the backing of his coaching staff, he could work this out?
i couldn't agree more with this
The Cubs have been willing to let Lilly, Wood, Howry and others work out the kinks early this year but Hill has been on a much shorter leash for some reason. Lou seems to have stated that once Hill goes bad he has no “confidence” that he can work out of it. So this seems to be more an attitude/personality kind of problem. Lou doesn’t seem to like Hill, or at least, doesn’t like his approach and therefore isn’t willing to be as patient or confident in him as he has been with Lilly, Wood, Howry, etc.
I seem to remember reading that the Cubs tinkered with Hill’s delivery in the offseason to get him to be quicker to the plate. If anyone has the time and ambition to compare Hill’s delivery from last year to what we are seeing this year it might go a long way to seeing if there is a mechanical issue at the root of this problem.
Whatever the problem is, it is probably best cured on the mound. If the Cubs aren’t willing to let Hill pitch they really should explore the option of trading him to a team that will.
Well, the roster move answered this question.
The situations aren’t directly comparable, either. Taking Wood out of the closer’s role and giving it to Marmol, say, would hurt other parts of the bullpen. And Wood isn’t going to Iowa.
Hill needs to get his confidence back. It’s more than a badly-timed slump. Hopefully, he will straighten his head out and pitch better at Iowa and come back, because the 2007 version of Hill would be very helpful to this team.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Oyyy
I won’t defend yesterday’s outing. But I will ask what the benefit is of giving a starter whose weakness is clearly between his ears 9 fraking days between starts? Now we want to send him to Iowa, make him someone else’s problem. But why should we do that? Why can’t we get the guy with the best stuff to be an asset? I had to watch the aggravating Hrabowsky and the Fox Sports Net Taint Louis feed last night and they put Rich Hill’s stats and Adam Wainright’s next to each other. They’re practically identical. Yet one is being groomed for a 1 or two slot while we want to send ours to Iowa. Of course, Wainright is actually being coached. and that’s kind of the problem if you ask me.
How many cub pitchers are sub par right now? Hill, Lilly, Marquis maybe, Hart has already been sent down, Howry (Before last night) and is it fair to call Wood’s season so far “Up and down”? That’s over half the staff right? Best hitting team,pretty damn good fielding team (Soriao follies aside) playing hard, making smart decisions, and the pitching staff, which is supposed to be a strength,has exactly 3 pitchers (okay I’ll throw Marshall in there, so 4) who earn a check mark in the performance category.
Trade this guy, send this guy down to Iowa,call up these guys and acquire this guy. How about telling Rothschild to do his fragging job? Or finding someone who can.
"I can't be held responsible for what I personally tell my goons to do...."- C. Montgomery Burns
Wainwright & Hill "identical"?
Wainwright after last night: 45 IP in 5 starts, 10 walks
Hill after last night: 19.2 IP in 4 starts, 18 walks
Until Hill figures out his control problems, send him to Iowa.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
this comparison
Since being called up in 2006 Wainright is 19-14, 241K’s, 103walks and a WHIP of 1.281
Since being called up in 2006 Rich Hill is 18-15, 288 k’s, 120 walks and WHIP of 1.268
THOSE STATS AL. Those were the stats. But by all means, skew your little April of stats to fit your argument. I’ll put it right up there with last summer’s “We need to dump Carlos Zambrano as soon as possible” rant and the “Rich Hill will never be a major league pitcher because he’s 26” blather that you were on from 2 years back.
"I can't be held responsible for what I personally tell my goons to do...."- C. Montgomery Burns
Phil Hughes
Someone on espn speculated he might be available that the rest of the league isnt quite as high on him as the Yankees seemed to be at the outset of the season and he might be available for bullpen help..
Thatd be interesting, but if by bullpen help, they mean marmol, then Id say forget it. I know Sabathia is coming on free agency, but who else, there were rumors around trading for Greinke over the winter, but that ship has likely sailed due to his hot start.
So I think if Hill gets demoted for a while, the only option would be Gallagher/Hart/Lieber. But if Hart was sent down already, what will they do- I would guess Gallagher based on his numbers thus far.
Chances are Hill and Fox get sent down today
The Cubs are super-starved for fresh pitching arms right now. I imagine they probably call up two guys to serve as short-term band-aids. I don’t see Gallagher being called up unless they plan on putting him right into the rotation. Ascanio hasn’t been doing well at Iowa but he may be one of the guys called up by default.
Fox will get sent down after one game?
Not likely.
And you say “Ascanio hasn’t been doing well at Iowa”. Guess you haven’t really been paying attention, because in 11 appearances, 14 innings, he’s 1-0 with six saves and 15 strikeouts, a 1.05 WHIP and a 2.51 ERA.
That looks good to me.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Rich Hill is at a major crossroads
There have been many of us who have lamented him being a two-pitch pitcher. He has one of the best curveballs in the business, but unfortunately his fastball is too pedestrian to be a number one pitch when the curveball isn’t working. The even bigger problem is lack of control, a recurrence of a problem that plagued him out of Michigan.
I would think the best strategy is to send him down to Triple A for a couple months and hope that he might be able to figure out things in time to help the Cubs after the All Star break.
And I think
that’s a major over reaction.
"I can't be held responsible for what I personally tell my goons to do...."- C. Montgomery Burns
IF
Hill was just pitching like this in April, I could understand people saying sending him to Triple A to get fix is overreacting. But ever since spring training as started, Hill has had the same awful control problems. Hill is lucky to pitch as well he has, with the awful control and his strike outs down. I think if Piniella wasn’t babying him(trying to give him confidence) Hill would have a 5 or 6 era right now.
We could say lets just keep sending Hill out there(I have been saying that as well), and it will work out. But the Cubs have worked hard with getting Hill right for over two months now, and nothing has changed. So whats going to be different in his next start or two? Plus were trying to contend and win the division, we can’t give away games with Hill walking in runs or blow though our pen. So at this point I wouldn’t mind sending him down to Triple A for the next month trying to fix his problem. Because right now I don’t see it magically just getting fixed with the major league team. If some think Hill is just going to magically start throwing strikes again in his next start, I think your kidding yourself. But I hope your right, I just don’t see it happening right now.
You bet he's looking
Some how I don’t think Hendry ever sleeps. Hell, if he’s gonna agree to terms of a $40M deal while hooked up to an EKG machine in the hospital, he’s likely to do anything.
I will go out on the line and place a bet for a C-note or higher that Hendry will acquire another SP before the 31Jul deadline IF the team does not have a good 5-man rotation come, say the 4th of July. If there are inconsistencies in the next 2 months like there are now, Jimbo will make a trade for a SP.
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