Can we keep the pace?
A new article in FoxSports today by Dayn Perry states a lot of reason why the Cubs (currently on pace for 101 wins) cannot keep their current pace. A lot of his reasons are obvious and he does bring up some good points such as overworking Marmol and Dempter's unusually good start. I still believe that Demp will have a year better than most expect due to his off-season conditioning and the early results are there. Can he keep the pace? I say yes as optimism is big in my mind.
Other points brought up include the lines Soto and ONEDEC have put up so far. Yes, it's a possibility that their numbers will go down, but I think it's completely sustainable. I remember last year when Fontenot got off to a ridiculous start, but sooner or later MLB pitching will figure you out. It's all in how adjustments are made throughout MLB's long marathon of a season.
Here's the link and discuss as you please:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8159418/Numbers-paint-a-confusing-picture-for-Cubs
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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95 Wins More Reasonable
The Cubs are on a pace to win 98 to 99 games after last night’s loss. 95 wins is a little off that pace. That’s still good and should bring a division title. The Cubs could get better work out of the 4th and 5th starters, if Dempster falters. Ascanio, Howry, or some other reliever could pick up the slack for Marmol, if Carlos falters. Pie might come back up and hit decently to make up for Cedeno possibly going bad. This team is deep enough to win 95 games. It’s too early to worry about getting 11 playoff wins.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on May 21, 2008 12:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the 101 win pace...
was strictly from the article. I agree that 95 is enough to win the Central…
You ARE freaking out MAN!
by crw89 on May 21, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dayn Perry
is a Cardinals fan. Period. Half his “columns” describe how either:
a) the Cubs suck, or
b) the Cubs suck.
by SouthsideCub on May 21, 2008 1:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I just read that
I think Marmol will be fine. As Howry heats up as he always does as the season goes along, Lou will start pulling back on Marmol’s innings. We’ve had a lot of close games late in innings as well. That will hopefully tail off.
Dempster will fade back into being a solid 4th guy or so. Lilly will settle back in as the solid #2. Our problem is at #3 and #5 imo. Hill appears to really, really be in Lou’s doghouse given Lou’s public comments about Hill’s trip to the DL at Iowa. Lou clearly thinks he’s a headcase.
Marquis is shaky already and will fade as he always does. His days are numbered, one way or the other. Where will that leave us with the #3 and #5 spots? That’s probably my biggest concern. I think we can piece together the #5 spot with Marshall, Gallagher, or whoever and probably get away with it. But who is our #3, or if Dempster can maintain a solid enough pace to be a quality #3, who is the #4?
I was reading about the Padres impending firesale. Maddux will almost certainly be available. Do you go get him as your #3/4/5? He would bring a lot to the clubhouse and probably a 4.50 era and some solid innings. He’s not a solid #3, but can be a solid #4 or #5 probably.
I would like to see the Cubs make a big push for Chris Young. Now that could be a very solid #2/3 with Lilly, then Dempster as our #4 and whomever as our #5. Could we maybe land both Young and Maddux in some sort of big package? I would think Pie is very appealing to the Padres given the spacious center field at Petco.
Anyway, I think we’re a solid CF and one more solid #3/#4 type pitcher away at this point from being the dominant team in the NL. I don’t think we can stand pat in this division and not risk being caught/passed by one of these other teams if they stay healthy and get hot.
by paulucla on May 21, 2008 1:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
By the way
It is very unlikely the Padres will part with Young, but it doesn’t hurt to try.
by paulucla on May 21, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Young...
would be ideal, but it’s a stretch. Now Maddux would be nice and very possible. I’d say 4 or 5, but just his presence would benefit the whole staff…
You ARE freaking out MAN!
by crw89 on May 21, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It does hurt. It hurts a lot.
Here’s the gouge:
HOME: 1.75 ERA
ROAD: 6.58 ERA
BOTH: 4.18 ERA
He’s probably quite a bit better than a 6.58 ERA, but he’s hardly worth what a 4.18 ERA pitcher will command on the trade market. Trading for Padres pitchers is a bad idea.
by cwyers on May 21, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I didn’t realize his splits were so pronounced both this year and last. He’s definitely a product of Petco, although in 2006 his splits were dramatically reversed, which is quite bizarre.
What do you think of getting Maddux?
by paulucla on May 21, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we need to trade just yet
CF is a problem right now, but I am of the opinion that we need to see if Pie can be that CF we need before we go trading away young pieces to pick up a rental or expensive veteran. Pie can play the defense we need in centerfield and if Edmonds continues to struggle I say put Pie out there in a platoon with Johnson, because starting pitching may become a greater need depending on how the pieces we already have perform.
I think Gallagher can be the #3/4 pitcher that we need in the rotation. He has good stuff and has pitched pretty well thus far. If he can keep it up, he can easily slide into the rotation to replace Marquis. Then we only need one more starting pitcher and I think Lieber and/or Marshall could do just fine in the starting rotation.
We need to see if we have the pieces to fill our holes before we go jumping out onto the trade market, regardless of who is/may be available.
"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome
by gwood on May 21, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am looking
down the line more then anything, into July where our needs might be. I agree that we should see how things develop over the next month or so, but when the Padres start letting it be known they want to dump veterans, we need to at least see what’s available.
Depending on Gallagher as a #3/4 on a championship contender is absurd imo. He has a bright future, but don’t let a quality start or two blind you to the fact he’s extremely inexperienced with only a decent minor league track record. You’re seriously suggesting he could be our #3 starter in the heat of a pennant race?
by paulucla on May 21, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
I would agree with you that he should not be relied upon because of his inexperience, but then look what the Diamondbacks did last year. I expected them to fold down the stretch and in the first round because of their youth and inexperience, but they didn’t.
I just don’t think it is worth trading for a starting pitcher unless we are going after someone to slot ahead of Lilly. Otherwise, it’s not worth giving up what we would have to give up, imo.
"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome
by gwood on May 21, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gallagher is not that good. Yet.
After a few months of starting he may settle in, but right now he does not look like a #3 pitcher to me.
by californiachicagoan on May 21, 2008 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like a thrower not a pitcher
great arm—-hes only 22, not now but he will be at least a number 3 IMO
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on May 22, 2008 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good call...
...Gallagher has a bright future, but he has a ways to go and just needs more experience.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 22, 2008 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amen
Padres release one of thier slow moving outfielders in thier spacious park, and then we pick them up. Only to later make a trade for a veteran pitcher to give up our top CF prospect. Edmonds might have a couple of flashes left but the wick is nearly burnt out. We need the kind of defense that Pie can play down the stretch.
by StevenABQ on May 21, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we keep this pace up?
Probably not. Do we need to keep this pace up? Almost certainly not.
by SouthernCub on May 21, 2008 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The pitching staff needs time...
...to figure out just who the top five will be come mid-July or so. It really could go a lot of different ways depending on what Hill does at AAA, how Marquis holds up and whether Gallagher can be productive over time. They have some depth here, so it could workout without having to overpay for someone at the deadline.
CF is another story. I don’t have a lot of confidence that either Pie or Edmonds are going to effective enouph with the bat to be a viable choice. Johnson is fine to start a couple games a week, but he will get exposed with too much playing time. I have no idea who may be available, but Hendry may end up hoping a good CF is available at the deadline.
Can they keep up a 28-18 pace for the duration? If the pitching holds up and no major injuries, yes they can. Do I think they will? Probably not, but they should be able to win 90-95 games or so, which wins the division by 7-8 games.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 21, 2008 1:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
IMO, We are fine in CF
Because we have two very adequate and one brilliant defensive options and if we can get a .250 BA out of that spot, with the production from the other spots that we’ve been getting so far, I think that will suffice.
I strongly, vehemently agree with what people have said in that we need a #2 pitcher. While we have been in the top ten in pitching statistics across the board we do not have a consistent shutdown #2 pitcher and that, in my opinion is what it will take to get deep in the playoffs and really, that’s all that matters right now. It’s only May, true, but it can’t hurt to prepare to follow (one of) the golden rule(s) of baseball, pitching wins in the playoffs.
by cubsonWGN4ever on May 21, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If a legit number 2...
...is available, you certainly have to take a hard look at it. Of course that will depend on how things go the next 6 weeks or so, and also what the price tag would be on a potential number 2 guy.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 21, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grienke or Lincecum?
Do you think we have enough to land one of those guys?
"Please move away from this vector and get into another coordinate pronto. There's no access for you in this quadrant." Mike Donnelly
by McRipper on May 21, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to say...
...and would really depend on what other teams would be in the running for those guys – if they are available.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 21, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no way those guys get traded.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on May 21, 2008 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum
is absolutely not available for any price.
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on May 21, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I’d love to have him, but his eventual injury outlook seems questionable. Whatever the case, it’s moot anyway. He’s not going anywhere.
Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager
by northsider on May 21, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I bet there's a price at which he'd be available...
Every man has his price. :)
Whether or not the price is reasonable is another thing. But do you think Pie, Vitters, Marmol, Soto, Hill, Marshall, and Gallagher wouldn’t be enough?
And even if those pieces don’t fit, I’m sure there are other teams that could make the Giants drool a bit.
I agree that he’s not moving though, because last-place teams don’t trade away their prized possessions unless they’re getting someone else’s prized possessions.
by SouthernCub on May 21, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not
a serious offer, right?
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on May 21, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not...
I was just using it as an example for my “every man has his price” statement.
The Cubs would never (and should never) make that offer. And the reality is that Lincecum is not moving any time soon. But there is certainly a price that would make the Giants move him. It’s just not a reasonable price.
by SouthernCub on May 21, 2008 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not available
at any serious offer, smartypants.
He’s not a free agent for five years and he, along with Matt Cain, are the new faces of the franchise. Giant fans are in a surly mood and Cain and Lincecum are what give them hope right now.
The Giants will not trade Lincecum.
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on May 21, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
Admittedly I was just being the Technicality Police there. Lincecum is not going anywhere anytime soon. It would take an amazing offer to get him to leave, and frankly there aren’t teams out there who are willing to make the kind of offer it would take.
by SouthernCub on May 21, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smartypants :)
Given the right package and possibly cash Lincecum COULD be traded.
The Giants WILL NOT TRADE LINCECUM. I guarantee they trade him ‘one day’
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on May 21, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well played sir...
One day, he may very well be traded by the Giants. But not today.
by SouthernCub on May 21, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really wish
we’d gone after Bedard with all the fervor we seemed to go after that B-Ro fella.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on May 21, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can and Will
are two different questions.
Sure the Cubs can keep up the pace. I think even Perry was saying that. Some guys are performing above expectations (Dempster, Soto) and some below (Lilly).
But few teams actually win 100 games these days. As others have said, 94 or 95 wins is more likely, and that should easily be enough to win the Central.
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8 lbs. 1 oz.
by Josh77 on May 21, 2008 2:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's another factor
I can see the Cubs taking this and running away and hiding by early September. If they have it wrapped early they may give some guys rest, set up the rotation etc which may cost them some wins.
On that note while I would like to have this wrapped up early for those reasons you don’t want them to wrap too early because that can lead to some problems. Most Sox fans will say the Indians pushing them til the end in 05 helped.
We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.
by cubstoseriesby100 on May 21, 2008 2:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd be very happy with...
95 wins.
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 21, 2008 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on May 21, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+ 94
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on May 21, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+5
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 21, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN's Neyer weighed in on Perry's column today with
...his own 2 cents on the Cubs; (behind the pay wall)
I agree with his take, especially the last paragraph!
Perry’s also worried about the Unhittable Carlos Marmol.You might recall that Marmol was mostly a starter in 2006, and struggled in that role. As a reliever, though? In 108 innings, Marmol has given up 63 hits and struck out 150 hitters. So why is Perry worried? Because Marmol’s currently on pace to throw 102 innings this season, which obviously is an awful lot for a reliever.
Is that too many innings, though? From 2000 through 2007, only six relievers pitched as many as 100 innings (actually five, as Scott Sullivan did it twice). With the exception of knuckleballer Steve Sparks in 2003, all of them pitched effectively, though of course that’s what we would expect: They pitched a lot because they were pitching well. The question is whether or not Marmol breaks down before he gets to 100 innings. The current Conventional Wisdom is that you shouldn’t let a relief pitcher throw so many innings. Maybe Lou Piniella has access to Unconventional Wisdom, but I suspect instead that he’ll simply ease up on Marmol, particularly if the Cubs are able to open up a big lead this summer in the Central.
Overall, I don’t think the Cubs can keep winning at a .609 clip; they have too big a hole in center field and too many guys with .400+ on-base percentages who aren’t likely to maintain those OBPs. But of course they don’t need to win 61 percent of their games to get into the playoffs. Not in that division or any other. Everywhere I go, strangers ask me if this is the year the Cubs finally beat the “curse.” I don’t know anything about curses, but I do know that this October the Cubs should be exactly where they were last October: playing important games with a decent shot at winning everything. From there it’s out of our hands.
Felix Pie must play everyday!
by JB 23 on May 21, 2008 7:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs gotta figure out the road issues
It’s pretty much the same crap over and over again.This offense just doesn’t hit the same on the road, and our starts seem to give up 4-5 runs way too much. Something needs to give we either need to start hitting or pitching better on the road or were not gonna win the division. These are our road loses this season
5-3
4-2
9-0
5-3
5-3
5-3
2-0
5-3
4-2
7-1
5-3
Sure a couple of those games we just got beat when we lost 9-0 and 7-1. But those 5-3 and 4-2 games have been killers so far. So like I said before we either need the pitching to start allowing 3 runs or less, or score 5-6 plus runs At home this is a 100 win team, but if they keep struggling on the road like they have, they will be lucky to win 90.
by cubsfan25 on May 21, 2008 11:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This will work itself out...
...and they will be fine on the road.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 22, 2008 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Killers so far?
Ladies in gentleman your first place 9 games over .500 Cubs,
Killers? Huh?
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on May 22, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Cubs...
... can win 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh, that’s a .500 road trip and they come home 11-12 on the road.
If they can play .500 or close on the road and continue to play like they have at home, they’ll be just fine.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on May 22, 2008 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
...they are going to be fine on the road once they get more games under their belt. Compared to the other NL teams, they are too good not to hold their own away from home.
With that said, I don’t have a good feeling about the weekend series in Pitt. When you beat a team as many times as the Cubs have beat Pitt, it will be payback time at some point.
I would be thrilled if they can win 2 out of 3 this weekend.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on May 22, 2008 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No reson to get excited in late May. Theres still alot of baseball to be played, and if the Cubs continue to stay ahead of the rest of NL central, that’s all that matters at this stage. The fun really starts after the All-Star break. That is where the men seperate themselves from the boys.
by montecarlo on May 22, 2008 3:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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