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Pick-Me-Up: Cubs 8, Rockies 4

A soft rain began falling in the middle innings, let up, then started falling again right as the Cubs' 8-4 win over the Rockies was ending; as I walked out of the park with my son Mark (attending a night game on a school night because all his schoolwork for the year is done), he said, "That looks cool in the lights."

It did. And so did all of last night's game. The title of this post is one of the reasons I'm really starting to like this team -- beyond its now major-league-best 33-21 record, after the mighty Rays were vanquished by the White Sox -- it's how each of the members of this year's Cubs seem to pick each other up when one falters.

Jason Marquis threw pretty well last night, getting through five innings mostly unscathed. He got in trouble in the sixth, and loaded the bases, forcing Lou to yank him for the just-recalled Neal Cotts. Cotts nearly got out of it, but when he walked Todd Helton to re-load the bases after Willy Taveras' two-run pinch single had tied it (the two runs charged, of course, to Marquis), Michael Wuertz picked up Cotts by striking out Garrett Atkins with the bases loaded.

And then, after Wuertz had coughed up the lead in the top of the seventh -- and it could have been worse if not for a nice snare of a sinking line drive by Reed Johnson in CF, who flipped to Mark DeRosa for an inning-ending DP (Johnson could have run in and done it himself, that's how far off second Ian Stewart was) -- the Cubs came right back with a couple of dinky singles, some shoddy fielding by Rockies pitcher Matt Herges, and a nice AB by Geovany Soto with the bases loaded to tie the game with a sac fly.

The rest of the team put the game away in the 8th inning, with the crowd of 39,851 on its feet roaring, DeRosa led off with a double, and when Johnson tried to sacrifice, there was more bad fielding by a Rockies pitcher, this time Taylor Buchholz throwing the ball away, and then everyone hit; Micah Hoffpauir got his first ML RBI (I thought of calling my friend Phil, who had called to give me grief about Hoffpauir earlier in the day by claiming he was going to start -- yeah, right, Phil, against a LHP), and then Alfonso Soriano put the game out of Kerry Wood save reach with his 2nd RBI of the night. About the crowd, I am beginning to notice something I saw during 2003, as the season went on and the games took on more importance -- the amount of idiot behavior is being drastically reduced. Why? Because everyone's into the action on the field. As it should be.

Soriano now has 31 RBI, despite missing two weeks. In 2007, missing about the same amount of time early in the year, he didn't get his 31st RBI until July 2.

Derrek Lee -- same thing. He hit his 13th HR of the year tonight. Last year he hit his 13th HR on August 14. (Incidentally, before last night, Jeff Francis had never retired D-Lee. He did twice -- but also gave up that HR, the first XBH that Lee had off him. Prior to last night, Lee was 6-for-6 off Francis, all singles.)

This was a total team effort and I salute this team for gelling like this, one-third of the way through after last night, on pace for 99 wins, which would be the most for a Cubs team since 1935. Now, this is kind of a "chicken or the egg" argument: does winning breed good team chemistry, or does good team chemistry breed winning? I'll say it's a little of both, with a lot of talent, ability and good management mixed in. This team has, despite its flaws which we discuss every day on this site, enough of all of that, at least it would appear so as May draws to a close.

We were joined for Thursday's game by BCB reader simonuk, here visiting from England, sitting in the bleachers for the first time, and also Sarah Hope, who was happy to see her hero Kerry Wood pitch (Jon Lieber started to warm up after the Cubs took a four-run lead, but Lou said in his postgame remarks that Wood was ready, so that's why he was used). Kerry mixed up his fastballs and breaking stuff well and you can see that he's starting to trust his offspeed pitches more and more each outing. With only 17 pitches thrown, he should be available tomorrow.

And not that I'm superstitious or anything, but in each of the three night games this week, the Cubs have been trailing going into the bottom of the 7th, and I have taken that opportunity to visit the men's room. And each night, the Cubs have mounted a comeback after that. Just sayin'.

And all of you should pitch in so I can take my son more often. His personal record is now 6-0. (And he got two baseballs during BP last night.) I'll have a game thread up in a few hours.

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I think the two very important signs of a team that can go deep into October are coming from behind to win, and scoring with two outs. This team, at least at home, has been doing both. I hope Lou can keep this team in the mindset that they are in now, and not let them get into a summer funk.

by punchnpie325 on May 30, 2008 6:18 AM CDT   0 recs

The last 3 games

I wouldn’t say that I was convinced, but wasn’t surprised that the Cubs found a way to win. The ability to come from behind and score with two outs has to be breeding confidence.

by Shanghai Badger on May 30, 2008 7:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What I meant was

That I wasn’t convinced before the rally. Not that I wasn’t convinced that they are a good team, because I am convinced of that.

It just was completely unsurprising that they found a way to get it done each game . . . and when the players believe that they can come back to win any game, it becomes self-fullfilling.

by Shanghai Badger on May 30, 2008 9:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The signs that I see for October point...

...”Wrigley Stadium” for a great home filed advantage, a much improved offense that should be able to do a better job scoring in the playoffs, one dominant starter, and a potentially dominant bullpen.

The downsides are that the Cubs O may be inflated by guys who are plating way over their heads now and come September they might be back to their historical levels. The rotation is okay but teams should score on us in the playoffs as only Z seems capable of shutting teams down, which to me places a strong emphasis on the offense, the bullpen and the defense. In close games the defense is huge and in my opinion this team has poor IF defense and one poor defender in the OF.

Overall, it’s good enough to compete for the world series slot.

by DudeVf11 on May 30, 2008 8:45 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And everyone here...

... should be rooting REAL hard for the NL to win the All-Star Game. The NL hasn’t had home field advantage since the “This Time It Counts” thing was started for the ASG in 2003.

Time to get it back, and time for the Cubs to benefit.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 30, 2008 8:52 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If the voting keeps going the way it is

it’ll essentially be the Cubs vs. the AL All-stars. Keep voting people, i’ve already spent my 25.

"Very adroit in the outfield." - Lou, on Dome

by gwood on May 30, 2008 8:54 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

or

the cubs vs. the red sox

"The 12 second rule is how long it takes Carlos Lee to hear, turn around, run over, find and eat a hot dog dropped by a fan in the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid park" - ballhawk

by MScubbie on May 30, 2008 9:15 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Same thing.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 9:16 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

just read my sig line.

They EXPECT to win. And so they do.

"We expect to win. We go out to win. So we're just living up to our own expectations." Derek Lee, 5/29/08

by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2008 9:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

deep into October

I think it’s the fact that we haven’t lost more than 2 games in a row all season. Many of those 2 game losing streaks were hardly fought games too. I think if and when we make the playoffs, we would definitely be poised to make a deep run.

Go ahead, Z me.

by tony412 on May 30, 2008 10:04 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Credit for Lou?

It’s always questionable in baseball, more so than football or basketball, for how much a manager contributes to a team’s success. Yeah, they can screw things up by putting the wrong people in the wrong place, particularly pitchers, but there’s not too much “team” strategy as it boils down to players being able to either put a ball in play or generate an out.

I’d like to give Piniella some credit for fostering professionalism on this team, something that was lacking with the Toothpicked-one. It took Lou some time to get rid of deadwood (Barrett comes to mind) and shape the relief corps into one of the best in baseball. The Cubs were finally able to build around the big 3 (Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano) and have an outfield that’s competitive with the rest of the league.

While we may not agree with how he’s handling the 4-headed utility man (Theriot-DeRosa-Cedeno-Fontenot) by not playing Cedeno more, he is getting results. As the season wears on we’ll see how fortunate he is with the starting pitching, since there are plenty of question marks past Z.

Pie, Fontenot, Theriot and Soto up the middle ... yippie oh, oh, oh!

by SpudV on May 30, 2008 6:49 AM CDT   0 recs

Theriot

Don’t want to rehash all the stuff that’s been said about the Theriot-Cedeño debate. But I will say that I think people are being overly critical with Lou on this one. Defensively Cedeño is better although more prone to make errors. He gets to more balls and has a better arm. The reason he is in the bench is because, among other things, he posted an OBP of .271 in 2006 and .231 in 2007. He has outperformed Theriot this year, and has looked great, but let’s not forget the fact that we are talking about a very limited sample size of 81 ABs. In 2005, in 80 ABs he put up a .300 AVG and a .356 OBP and look what happened next. Theriot, with the pressure of being a starter has responded and put up a fantastic .399 OBP, and as has been said here previously (although people tend to have selective memory sometimes) OBP is more important than slugging, and especially in the 2nd slot in the order.

What am I saying? I’m saying that it’s not all cut and dry as some people think. Yes, Cedeño is better and projects to be better. The way he is performing now is an upgrade over Theriot. But, as happened with his performance in 2005, that can change. I don’t think Lou is at fault for keeping Theriot at SS at this point. Sample size can’t be small for Felix yet big enough for Cedeño. Do you think Lou should yank Theriot the moment Cedeño puts together 30 good ABs? Especially if Theriot is performing very well offensively for a SS? That doesn’t make sense. I don’t think that sends a good message to the team either.

As long as Theriot has a near .400 OBP his is very valuable to this team. It’s not cut and dry. That’s all I’m saying.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 8:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I partially agree,

but I think you underestimate the extent to which Theriot’s limited range and poor arm can affect a game, especially with a staff that can induce a lot of groundballs. The arguments in favor of Theriot always revolve around BA and OBP, because everything outside of those two things—hitting for power, baserunning, defense, etc. say he’s really not worthy of a starting spot.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 8:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Worthy is relative

To the alternatives.

Obviously, it’s not worthy to the 2008 version of Cedeño. However, if you had to choose, who would you take: 2006 Cedeño with better range and arm and an OBP of .271/.231 or Theriot 2008? I don’t think Lou is at fault for not replacing Theriot the minute he sees something good from Cedeño. He will have to earn it. If he keeps producing like this he will end up a starter I have no doubt about it.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 8:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Unless it's Rey Sanchez...

My vote is always for the better defensive SS.

SS and CF: Defense first!

Cedeno/Pie 2008. Yes we can!

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 8:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Si, se puede!

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 8:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

To each his own

I wouldn’t take 2006 Cedeño over 2008 Theriot. No way jose.

I would take 2008 Cedeño over 2008 Theriot. Except we don’t know who 2008 Cedeño is because of limited sample size. I say you increase his at bats gradually if he keeps performing but you don’t yank Theriot to give him an everyday shot. Not while Theriot has a .400 OBP.

If Cedeño keeps performing I think his time for a full time job will come in 2009, most likely. And that ain’t bad either.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 9:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think anyone here is clamoring for Cedeno to start 7 games a week right now.

That’s a recipe for failure, and Cedeno can’t afford another failure.

But, why does Cedeno start once ever 2 weeks? Dat’s crazy, especially for a player with more tools.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 9:15 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun

by Bump Bailey on May 30, 2008 9:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You can't

place the decision between the 2006 Cedeno and the 2008 Theriot. It’s between 2008 Ronny and 2008 Theriot. And the 2008 Ronny isn’t second in the league in errors-Theriot is-2008 Ronny doesn’t lead the ML in CS-Theriot does-2008 Ronny has 19 RBI in 81 AB, while 2008 Theriot has 13 RBI in 199 AB. Now, of course you’‘ll say “But Theriot bats in the 2-hole, thus the lack of RBI.” That’s a valid point, but I argue that it’s also got something to do with the fact that Theriot has almost no power, and fewer doubles generally means fewer RBI. Ryan Theriot has 9 2B in 199 AB; Ronny has 7 2B in 81 AB.

I want Theriot on this team and I think he’s a valuable piece—in a reserve IF role. His BA and OBP are nice helped this team at the plate, but those numbers are likely unsustainable and his defense remains inadequate. cwyers pointed out in the game thread last night that only one SS in the ML with at least 400 chances has made fewer out of zone plays. I’d like to see Theriot go into the reserve IF role as his bat cools and get 2-3 starts a week at SS and 2B. I don’t hate Ryan Theriot, but I also don’t want him playing everyday.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 8:33 AM CDT to parent up   1 recs

I agree with you

But I think Theriot deserves the spot until he deserves to lose it. Right now, he hasn’t done anything to lose it…..

Cedeno had all of 2006 and part of last year to prove it and he didn’t. Theriot sat back, paid his dues, and now he’s reaping the benefits.

If Theriot goes into a slum, you’ll see Cedeno thrown right in there.

I didn’t realzie how weak Theriot’s arm was until I saw it live a couple of weeks ago. It was a freaking rainbow to first base.

by walsh2317 on May 30, 2008 8:36 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

cedeno has earned more playing time

i agree that Theriot should be given the benefit of the doubt while he floats his average above .300 and is doing the right things at the plate, but his defense has really hurt the team lately. Throws in the dirt cost us the game last Saturday night, an error last night, another throw in the dirt a few days ago. I think it is becoming clear that Theriot is a below average defender and this alone is reason enough to give Cedeno a least a start at short once a week. If Theriot starts to slump his job should most definitely be in question.

"Anytime I want to throw 95 or 96 (m.p.h.), I can throw it. But it's not how hard you throw in the big leagues. It's how you locate your pitches and learn to pitch the game." - If Zambrano has truly figured out how to pitch, look out.

by kylejo on May 30, 2008 8:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

theriot

also has scored many more runs than cedeno. And in this homestand, i’ve noticed that theriot always seems to be right in the middle of those late inning rallies…...Theriot isn’t the typical shortstop physically but he is doing a fine job there. He was caught stealing a lot in the beginning of the year but it seems to me that he isn’t running as much, so I don’t see that as being much of a problem anymore. I also disagree with the argument to put him as a reserve while his bat cools. He hasn’t shown any signs of cooling off, and even if he was going to, its just as likely that cedeno’s bat is going to cool off

by cubsmania on May 30, 2008 8:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good Lord.

He’s had more than twice as many AB’S!!!!!!!! With that OBP, and the Cubs middle of the order, you’d expect Theriot to score more runs, plus Ronny can’t score runs in GAMES IN WHICH HE DOES NOT PLAY.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 8:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This makes no sense.

I’ll let Gary’s comment speak as to why.

Theriot’s clutchness (clutchosity?) is exactly why he’s best suited for the reserve IF role. Pinch hit him in a big situation, or when you want to lead off an inning with him late.

Theriot can then finish out the game. But we’re better with Cedeno starting.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 8:45 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you are probably right

that it is just as likely that Cedeno’s bat will cool down, but over the long haul of a season I think Cedeno would post better offensive stats.

That being said, Theriot’s OPS is a surprising .789 and he is only behind Lee and Ramirez on the team in runs scored. His defense though needs to improve, Cedeno has a much better arm and more range and it will be hard to make a case that Theriot should be the starter if Cedeno’s bat stays hot and Theriot’s defense stays shaky at best.

"Anytime I want to throw 95 or 96 (m.p.h.), I can throw it. But it's not how hard you throw in the big leagues. It's how you locate your pitches and learn to pitch the game." - If Zambrano has truly figured out how to pitch, look out.

by kylejo on May 30, 2008 8:47 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

SS-NOT ABOUT THE BATS

This is the toughest defensive position on the field. Why do we trot out a below average defensive SS who is nominally better at offense than the slightly above-average defensive SS we have on our bench?

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 8:49 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And, that's conceding a point that I don't believe

that Theriot is better at offense than Cedeno.

Theriot cannot hit for extra bases. CAN NOT.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 8:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

theriot

can not hit for extra bases? He’s a singles hitter but he CAN hit for extra bases sometimes. regardless, what we need from him in the two hole is to get on base and get things started before lee and ramirez and he has done that and more.

by cubsmania on May 30, 2008 8:52 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Theriot is slugging .296 this month

and .381 for his career, and even that anemic SLG is boosted by his .522 SLG in 2006. He has no power. If he does double, it’s a slap up the line, not a gapper.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 8:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He's a singles hitter who doesn't steal bases.

Bad combo. GIDP city for Lee and Ramirez.

I’ll let cwyers tell you about his extra-base hitting, it’s one of his favorite subjects.

Didn’t mean to derail my argument though: SS is a defense first position, and we’re trotting out the worse defensive selection even though the offense of the two players are close.

"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman

by Bildo1805 on May 30, 2008 8:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If you insist.

There are 182 players qualified for the batting title; only nine of them have hit for less power than Theriot. We are not talking about a minor liability here; we are talking about one of the most punchless hitters in either league.

And half of them would pass him if you remove his entirely wind-aided home run.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 9:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey

And how many of those qualified for the batting title have a better or even close OBP to the one Theriot has? How about shortstops?

Considering OBP is more important than slugging, and I’d imagine even more in the 2 hole, then that’s part of the argument too.

Let’s give the complete story please.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 9:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh yes, let's please have the complete story.

Theriot is hitting .317/.402/.387, for a crisp 106 OPS+ – just a shade above league average so far. In order for Theriot to keep his OPS+ above 100, he needs to:

  • Keep batting above .300 for the rest of the season,
  • Somehow increase his walk rate further (at .122 it’s already jumped considerably from last year’s .082), or
  • Start hitting for extra bases.

And so long as we’re being complete, let’s go ahead and note:

Theriot is 17th in BA and 21st in OBP among qualified players in both leagues – yay Theriot! But that’s not what’s getting left out; you can’t turn a corner without someone brining up those facts.

In every other baseball skill – hitting for power, running the bases and fielding his position – Theriot has been awful; not just below average, but near the bottom. He’s one of the worst power hitters, worst baserunners and worst fielders for his position. That’s the complete story.

You say you’re not convinced that Cedeno is ready to be an everyday shortstop? Neither am I. But I sure as hell want to find out sooner rather than later, because if he isn’t then we don’t have one unless you’re utterly convinced that Theriot will bat over .300 for the remainder of the season. And discovering that we don’t have an everyday shortstop AFTER the trading deadline rather than before would be rather inconvenient, I think.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 10:04 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

just had a random thought

which is a cya way of saying I haven’t thought it through completely (or not at all), but would it be statistically relevant if you factored “caught stealing” into your OBP? Don’t quote me on the math, but if you subtract the number of caught stealings from the number of times you got on base, would that give you a truer “OBP”? Or is that too punitive?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on May 30, 2008 10:11 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Probably exaggerates the impact a bit.

There are three components to the value of any PA – advancing the runner, becoming a baserunner and avoiding the out. A walk/single plus a caught stealing is slightly more valuable than an out at the plate because it advances the runner more often.

One thing I want to emphasize, though, is that being caught stealing is roughly twice as detrimental as stealing a base is helpful.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 10:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Riddle me this

He’s made 6 less plays than the average shortstop given the same oportunities. Dandy.

How many times has been on base more than the average shortstop?

If Theriot stops hittings you have Cedeño. If Cedeño then stops hitting too you have to live with that. This team is not going to go for a shortstop at the trade deadline. You should have figured that out already.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 10:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Because he's on the DL, silly... ;-)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on May 30, 2008 10:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Interesting reply

Why don’t you just answer the question?

by Luis on May 30, 2008 10:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Because you don't seem to care about anything...

...but the ONE CATEGORY where Theriot does well at. And I’m not going to have that arguement. Yes, if you ignore all of the bad things about Theriot he’s not bad. Congratulations. I don’t see what that’s supposed to prove.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 10:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Relative value

Because I’m evaluating Theriot’s relative value. How much runs does Theriot’s defense cost the team relative to how much runs his offense provides. I’m sure there’s a statistic for this, no? If there is, how does he compare to the other shortstops in the league?

by Luis on May 30, 2008 10:29 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

go-go

Gadget Sabermetrics! :D

"We expect to win. We go out to win. So we're just living up to our own expectations." Derek Lee, 5/29/08

by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2008 10:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Took me a bit longer than 10 minutes - still had the spreadsheet set up for preseason projections.

The stat I use to combine defense and offense into one overall metric is WAR – Wins Above Replacement. Here’s a quick overview into how I calculate WAR. (I don’t include baserunning in WAR currently because I don’t have in-season PBP data – Theriot’s basestealing has cost the team approximately one marginal run so far this season, FWIW.)

Here’s the WAR for NL shortstops. Essentially, here’s what you’re looking at:

wOBA – A rate version of linear weights. wOBA is not park adjusted.

oRAA – Runs above average, offense. Derived from wOBA. oRAA is park-adjusted.

Defense – Runs saved/allowed versus average NL shortstop. Calculated using BIS RZR data available from The Hardball Times.

WAR – Offensive and defensive runs (along with a bonus for position, since shortstop is a premium defensive position) converted into wins. Essentially, 10 runs = 1 marginal win.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 11:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Should probably include the kicker.

Theriot is 11th out of 18 NL shortstops. What makes this funny is that WAR is playing time dependant. Theriot is sixth in the NL in plate appearances at SS.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 11:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll trust your data here

I don’t have the time nor probably the suficient ability to understand all you’ve done here (I’ve looked into other calculations you’ve done in the past). But I don’t have any reason to suspect your calculations/formulas aren’t well developed.

As far as the calculations for baserunning, I’m not sure I trust them yet. For example, Berkman in 2006 had a -1.50 and in -10.32 in 2004. For a guy who should be getting worse with age the numbers don’t agree at all. There were some wild fluctuations for Furcal too, 12.46 for 2004 to 1.59 in 2006. Unless there was some kind of injury you don’t expect something as consistent as baserunning (which would decline very gradually with age) would have those fluctuations. I think there are other factors which the formulas must not take to account that are relevant.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 1:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Something got deleted

In my other post. Seems Theriot is below average to very below average (if playing time is factored in). I’ll say I was wrong then. To finish this off I’ll just say that Cedeño, if not this year, will certainly be a regular next year. Too late or not too late, but if he keeps playing like this he will get his chance one way or the other.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 1:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

same reason people

don’t want ward or hoffpauier in the outfield…..comparing theriot to daryle ward is a little overboard.

by cubsmania on May 30, 2008 11:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

More

Saying he is one of the worst baserunners in the league is pretty ridiculous. He has tried to steal because he was excellent last year. If he keeps getting caught he will simply stop trying to steal, like the MAJORITY of the major leaguers. And then, he will be one of the best baserunners in the league in the group (which is the vast majority) of those who don’t steal bases.

Geez.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 10:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Really?

Ryan Theriot was a bad baserunner last season beforehe got Dance Fever on the basepaths.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 10:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll believe those numbers if

You show me data from different years and they are consistent in their evaluations of players. There are many factors involved here which are not being taken into account.

However, if you show me that Lee and Sosa had consistent negative values in their careers and the other guys had consistent positive values then I would definitely believe more this study. Since baserunning is a very consistent ability I would expect consistent results.

by Luis on May 30, 2008 10:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Check the spreadsheet attatched at the bottom.

That’s everyone in baseball from 2000-2007. You can show yourself as much data as you want.

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 10:32 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

are you saying he's a bad baserunner because of the CS?

because that seems to jump the gun if you call him a bad baserunner just because of that. I haven’t even seen him try to steal recently at all. For all we know, Lou could have been telling him to try and steal bases early in the season and they’ve seen that it hasn’t worked. He’s a heads up baserunner and doesn’t make baserunning mistakes like some other cubs do….cedeno being one of them.

by cubsmania on May 30, 2008 11:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He also lead the league last season

in outs made on the basepaths, which excludes CS.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 11:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Did you read the stuff at the link?

I went through Retrosheet’s play by play data, looking at how often runners were able to take extra bases (or get caught trying) on a multitude of different events, including singles, doubles, ground outs, fly outs, passed balls, wild pitches, and (yeah) stolen base attempts. Every event was given a run value based upon a run expectancy table, which takes into account the number of outs in the inning and what base a player was on. Only plays where the player in question was the lead runner were used to tabulate the figures.

Then, every player was compared to the average player from between 2000 and 2007.

So, yes, this season I’m only basing on caught stealing, since I don’t have play-by-play event data yet for 2008. I’m working on it. But last season? That’s based on well more than his base stealing (which was actually a net plus for him last year, I believe.)

by cwyers on May 30, 2008 11:13 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you're preaching to the choir

I would love it if Theriot was benched for Cedeno because of Cedeno’s clear defensive advantage. I was only saying, realistically Lou is going to stick with Theriot and if his OPS can stay north of .750 thats not a horrible thing, but as he does, Theriot better reward the team with better defense.

The Aramis BB/K Watch: 32 walks to 33 strikeouts. Im not sure who the last Cub to have more bb's than k's was, but Im sure it was a very long time ago.

by kylejo on May 30, 2008 9:13 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Valid arguments for both

Do we know if more AB’s for Cedeno will continue to have his success? I don’t know, but the only way is to get him more AB’s. I personally don’t think that will happen, Lou likes Theriot, his ( overuse word time)” grittyness”. To Theriot credit he does take more pitches this year, and his OPS is alarming good.
This will play out, Theriot as we know struggle late, if that happens Ronny will get the time. I like them both and it is good to have this depth.

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on May 30, 2008 8:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed.

Well put.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 8:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

also

cedeno has been put in to hit in matchups that tend to favor him since he isn’t starting. Can’t say if that makes a big difference in his numbers but I think it’s something to think about.

by cubsmania on May 30, 2008 8:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I know I've pointed this out before...

but what happened to Cedeno in ‘05 was Mr. Dusty. He came up and hit well. Then he started to struggle and press and DB did absolutely nothing to help him. Last year, he made some bonehead plays and had poor plate appearances because he was trying too hard. I never got on board with the Cedeno bashing because you could tell by his body language what was going on. Now he looks more relaxed and confident like he did in the beginning of ‘05. I’m glad he’s turned it around. He’ll get his playing time eventually.

Linus: Life is rarely all one way, Charlie Brown. You win some, you lose some. Charlie Brown: Really? Gee, that'd be neat.

by CyberCyclist on May 30, 2008 10:56 AM CDT